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NZ guy who predicts weather

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    #182
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    doleman2010 wrote: »
    I was just comparing with other days, where he has been here a few times a day but since unanswerable questions started appearing in droves he is gone.

    He's not gone 24hrs yet, give the man a chance!!!


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    #183
    jamesoc
    Closed Accounts Posts: 57 ✭✭jamesoc


    Just been killing some time listening to the podcast while we wait for Villians forecast to be discussed .
    http://www.todayfm.com/shows/weekdays/matt-cooper/Matt-Cooper-Blog/10-09-16/Ken_Ring_weather_prediction_latest.aspx?ReturnURL=%2Fshows%2Fweekdays%2Fmatt-cooper%2Fmatt-cooper-blog.aspx%3FBlogTagID%3D20fc7197-c030-4060-93cf-5ac1a2d4dd9a&BlogTagID=20fc7197-c030-4060-93cf-5ac1a2d4dd9a
    His results were good for the average , but didn't spot the extremes .

    September: Kens headlines ..''a bit more rain .. could be some flooding .. light snow in some inland counties in 3rd week .. dry after the 24th'' .

    ME Sept summary : Warmer wetter than normal almost everywhere .
    http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/sep10sum.pdf
    October ; Kens headlines .. ''50% less rain .. 2nd 3rd weeks quite cold .. last 6 days very cold , in fact amongst the coldest of the whole winter''

    ME Oct summary : Drier sunnier than normal , becoming cool after warm start .
    http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/oct10sum.pdf
    November : Kens headlines .. ''most rain in the west .. some snow in the first 10 days .. hardly any sunshine .. snow from 23rd to 25th'' .

    ME Nov summary : becoming cold after wet and windy first half .
    http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/nov10.pdf

    December : Kens headlines .. ''1 day of sunshine .. most of the rain in the first half then it dries up .. nowhere in Ireland to have a white Christmas .. quite a bit of rain after Christmas ..

    Irish Times summary 24/12/10 : (quoted from Met Eireann) '' the coldest December since records began dating back to the 1850s in some areas ''
    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/1224/1224286236843.html

    Overall that wasn't a particularly accurate forecast , but neither was it hopeless , excepting September/December of course , average day to day forecasts work well for practically anyone even if they are based on an 18year cycle or whatever , trick of an accurate seasonal forecast is to spot a trend , i don't believe Kens predictions are anywhere near his claim of 80% accuracy based on this example .


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    #184
    fizzycyst
    Closed Accounts Posts: 399 ✭✭fizzycyst


    I can't believe Today fm are endorsing this guy, someone needs to write a strongly worded letter:p


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    #185
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    What I get from the thread is Ken can't predict extremes, which is fine if he puts a disclaimer on that aspect. The 80% or so seems impressive but if he can't predict the 20%, of which some will be extreme floods and snow, seems pointless to me.

    In fairness, it's a tough ask!

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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    #186
    fizzycyst
    Closed Accounts Posts: 399 ✭✭fizzycyst


    K-9 wrote: »
    What I get from the thread is Ken can't predict extremes, which is fine if he puts a disclaimer on that aspect. The 80% or so seems impressive but if he can't predict the 20%, of which some will be extreme floods and snow, seems pointless to me.

    In fairness, it's a tough ask!
    just out of interest, how do you know he gets it right 80% of the time? I only ask because the today fm forecast did not seem 80% correct, and I have never seen any other forecast


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    #187
    jamesoc
    Closed Accounts Posts: 57 ✭✭jamesoc


    fizzycyst wrote: »
    just out of interest, how do you know he gets it right 80% of the time? I only ask because the today fm forecast did not seem 80% correct, and I have never seen any other forecast

    You need to check out his website to see that Fizz , that's what he claims, im not allowed link , but its there .


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    #188
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    jamesoc wrote: »
    You need to check out his website to see that Fizz , that's what he claims, im not allowed link , but its there .

    Yep, going on what has been posted here, which I don't recall Ken disputing, could be wrong on that, which I'm sure I'll be corrected on if incorrect!

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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    #189
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    K-9 wrote: »
    What I get from the thread is Ken can't predict extremes, which is fine if he puts a disclaimer on that aspect. The 80% or so seems impressive but if he can't predict the 20%, of which some will be extreme floods and snow, seems pointless to me.

    In fairness, it's a tough ask!
    No, because extremes are in the mind of the viewer. I use the words unusually or unseasonably, which I used for the last 10 days of November in my pre-November-written articles and interviews.
    I repeat that my work is copyright and mine alone, and purchasers only buy the right to view and use it for their own purposes, just like a book or a band track. If boards.ie began a policy of transcending the law by allowing something that I have expressly rejected and sincerely asked not to happen, then they will be co-conspirators in something that will become very serious and that will take the issue out of the mere discussion format.
    Besides, there is no need to discuss my actual figures because I do not stand by them as "events" to happen, merely as focus points for trends. If I say I will be in Dublin at around 4.13pm, coming from Westmeath, and I am there at 4.17pm, then I am not absolutely correct and also not entirely wrong but I have answered a question as to my arrival in such a way as to enable some planning on my or my host's behalf, in other words to provide information that is hopefully of use. By continuing to nag away at the actual forecast as written, those posters are missing the whole point of longrange, and I doubt now of they will ever understand it.
    Just go to commercial tide tables as a comparison. They are never correct, as many factors will skew a tide time but even more, a tide height. Factors like high pressure which can depress a height or low pressure which can "suck" it upwards, rogue winds temporarily coming up a channel which can bring a premature high tide etc. Yet no grown-up would bother writing nasty letters to the authors of the tide tables demanding that they be published for public ridicule, guffawed over as one particular day's result is endlessly dissected, and wanting the whole system axed. One would suppose that mature readers would just move on, noting that unseen factors for that day probably put the result out. It would not be held that the tidetable authors were deliberately trying to deceive, mislead and ripoff the public.
    As for posting, I have TV, radio and printed media commitments, especially at the turn of a month such as now. I do not shy away from responding to genuine questions. But I am not going to get into silly dogfights over every little reading or figure I was supposed to have said or meant, and who gives me 80% and who 85%, just because someone with nothing to contribute except venom decides that I should.
    I repeat, if you have different predictions, post them here. Mine are just opinions. Let's see your opinions, not about me, about weather or the moon. I have exactly the same convictions about it as MTC, no more and no less. I just have a different set of tools. I am not aware of what astrological programmes he uses, but as he mentions orbits I assume he does have a model. So if you criticise the system you also criticise his, also Farmers Almanac, also Weather Action. We all use sun and moon.
    It seems such discussion is beyond the scope of the few posters who just like a fight. They call themselves meteorologists and/or run weather websites but they don't seem to understand what generates weather. They seem to think that what arrives is some kind of random system, as if the sea decides that afternoon whether or not to be a kingtide that day.


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    #190
    fizzycyst
    Closed Accounts Posts: 399 ✭✭fizzycyst


    just reading his 'winter outlook for Ireland', the first paragraph says, when comparing last winter to this one, that it will be cold but not as cold as last year, and dry but with some wet periods. In fairness this would be a normal winter in Ireland that the average person would expect (or predict). As far as I can make out he was predicting the end of December/early January to be cold too, as we know this turned out to be the mildest part of the winter so far. So my own conclusion is that Ken ties to predict the weather, fair enough, but he charges people far too much money for forecasts that certainly don't seem to be 80% correct (but I'm not going to pay for the privilege of looking at the rest, so I guess I can't say much more than that)


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    #191
    jamesoc
    Closed Accounts Posts: 57 ✭✭jamesoc


    jamesoc wrote: »
    Just been killing some time listening to the podcast while we wait for Villians forecast to be discussed .
    http://www.todayfm.com/shows/weekdays/matt-cooper/Matt-Cooper-Blog/10-09-16/Ken_Ring_weather_prediction_latest.aspx?ReturnURL=%2Fshows%2Fweekdays%2Fmatt-cooper%2Fmatt-cooper-blog.aspx%3FBlogTagID%3D20fc7197-c030-4060-93cf-5ac1a2d4dd9a&BlogTagID=20fc7197-c030-4060-93cf-5ac1a2d4dd9a
    His results were good for the average , but didn't spot the extremes .

    September: Kens headlines ..''a bit more rain .. could be some flooding .. light snow in some inland counties in 3rd week .. dry after the 24th'' .

    ME Sept summary : Warmer wetter than normal almost everywhere .
    http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/sep10sum.pdf
    October ; Kens headlines .. ''50% less rain .. 2nd 3rd weeks quite cold .. last 6 days very cold , in fact amongst the coldest of the whole winter''

    ME Oct summary : Drier sunnier than normal , becoming cool after warm start .
    http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/oct10sum.pdf
    November : Kens headlines .. ''most rain in the west .. some snow in the first 10 days .. hardly any sunshine .. snow from 23rd to 25th'' .

    ME Nov summary : becoming cold after wet and windy first half .
    http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/nov10.pdf

    December : Kens headlines .. ''1 day of sunshine .. most of the rain in the first half then it dries up .. nowhere in Ireland to have a white Christmas .. quite a bit of rain after Christmas ..

    Irish Times summary 24/12/10 : (quoted from Met Eireann) '' the coldest December since records began dating back to the 1850s in some areas ''
    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/1224/1224286236843.html

    Overall that wasn't a particularly accurate forecast , but neither was it hopeless , excepting September/December of course , average day to day forecasts work well for practically anyone even if they are based on an 18year cycle or whatever , trick of an accurate seasonal forecast is to spot a trend , i don't believe Kens predictions are anywhere near his claim of 80% accuracy based on this example .

    Ah B/S and bluster from you as ever , without actually commenting on the point raised , heard it all , seen it all , bah , there is no copyright involved in your broadcast to the Nation last September though is there Ken , so you cant go ''hide'' on this one , perhaps you can explain how you got it so wrong .
    The December summary from Met Eireann is yet to be issued , but your prediction for that month looks hopeless lol :D .


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    #192
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    fizzycyst wrote: »
    just reading his 'winter outlook for Ireland', the first paragraph says, when comparing last winter to this one, that it will be cold but not as cold as last year, and dry but with some wet periods. In fairness this would be a normal winter in Ireland that the average person would expect (or predict). As far as I can make out he was predicting the end of December/early January to be cold too, as we know this turned out to be the mildest part of the winter so far. So my own conclusion is that Ken ties to predict the weather, fair enough, but he charges people far too much money for forecasts that certainly don't seem to be 80% correct (but I'm not going to pay for the privilege of looking at the rest, so I guess I can't say much more than that)
    So just don't buy it. How hard is that?
    My target audience are not fellow meteorologists. What is happening in this thread is obsessive, closer to self-flagellation than forecasting. Imagine if someone decided they didn't like a brand of shampoo, so they go back into the supermarket and tell everyone coming up the aisle, don't buy that because one day I found it didn't work, and they spend all their working day doing that. Not only that, they gather statements from opposition manufacturers that they stand and read out at the shop entrance, and they demand that the formula be publicly revealed. When the owners of the brand say no, they don't want that to happen, they try to villify him as a crook, a conman, with something to hide, not realising the insensitivity and lack of consideration and ordinary tolerance in their own demands.


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    #193
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    fizzycyst wrote: »
    just reading his 'winter outlook for Ireland', the first paragraph says, when comparing last winter to this one, that it will be cold but not as cold as last year, and dry but with some wet periods. In fairness this would be a normal winter in Ireland that the average person would expect (or predict). As far as I can make out he was predicting the end of December/early January to be cold too, as we know this turned out to be the mildest part of the winter so far. So my own conclusion is that Ken ties to predict the weather, fair enough, but he charges people far too much money for forecasts that certainly don't seem to be 80% correct (but I'm not going to pay for the privilege of looking at the rest, so I guess I can't say much more than that)
    That's right, and winter isn't over yet, unless some think winter ends in December. I said very cold in the last week of November and it was.


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    #194
    jamesoc
    Closed Accounts Posts: 57 ✭✭jamesoc


    Kenring wrote: »
    So just don't buy it. How hard is that?
    My target audience are not fellow meteorologists.

    What :rolleyes: , lol meteorologists are scientists , whats the connection ? .
    You refuse to discuss a forecast with the man you issued it to because it is riddled with inaccuracies , he has told you so many times its hopeless , whats this crap about copyright , yeah right :rolleyes:


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    #195
    jamesoc
    Closed Accounts Posts: 57 ✭✭jamesoc


    Kenring wrote: »
    That's right, and winter isn't over yet, unless some think winter ends in December. I said very cold in the last week of November and it was.

    LOL thats brilliant , very cold in the last week of November , priceless :D


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    #196
    fizzycyst
    Closed Accounts Posts: 399 ✭✭fizzycyst


    Kenring wrote: »
    So just don't buy it. How hard is that?
    My target audience are not fellow meteorologists. What is happening in this thread is obsessive, closer to self-flagellation than forecasting. Imagine if someone decided they didn't like a brand of shampoo, so they go back into the supermarket and tell everyone coming up the aisle, don't buy that because one day I found it didn't work, and they spend all their working day doing that. Not only that, they gather statements from opposition manufacturers that they stand and read out at the shop entrance, and they demand that the formula be publicly revealed. When the owners of the brand say no, they don't want that to happen, they try to villify him as a crook, a conman, with something to hide, not realising the insensitivity and lack of consideration and ordinary tolerance in their own demands.
    It's not very hard at all Ken, I have no need to BUY your forecasts :) But the thing is, it kind of irks me that you state an 80% success rate without publicly stating where you come up with this figure. Coming back to your analogy, if there was a product that I bought and was unhappy with i would suggest to people not to buy it, but I wouldn't spend all my working day doing it. And it is the law that products such as shampoo have their ingredients clearly labeled on the bottle, so people actually know what they are getting when they make a purchase.


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    #197
    jamesoc
    Closed Accounts Posts: 57 ✭✭jamesoc


    jamesoc wrote: »
    Just been killing some time listening to the podcast while we wait for Villians forecast to be discussed .
    http://www.todayfm.com/shows/weekdays/matt-cooper/Matt-Cooper-Blog/10-09-16/Ken_Ring_weather_prediction_latest.aspx?ReturnURL=%2Fshows%2Fweekdays%2Fmatt-cooper%2Fmatt-cooper-blog.aspx%3FBlogTagID%3D20fc7197-c030-4060-93cf-5ac1a2d4dd9a&BlogTagID=20fc7197-c030-4060-93cf-5ac1a2d4dd9a
    His results were good for the average , but didn't spot the extremes .

    September: Kens headlines ..''a bit more rain .. could be some flooding .. light snow in some inland counties in 3rd week .. dry after the 24th'' .

    ME Sept summary : Warmer wetter than normal almost everywhere .
    http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/sep10sum.pdf
    October ; Kens headlines .. ''50% less rain .. 2nd 3rd weeks quite cold .. last 6 days very cold , in fact amongst the coldest of the whole winter''

    ME Oct summary : Drier sunnier than normal , becoming cool after warm start .
    http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/oct10sum.pdf
    November : Kens headlines .. ''most rain in the west .. some snow in the first 10 days .. hardly any sunshine .. snow from 23rd to 25th'' .

    ME Nov summary : becoming cold after wet and windy first half .
    http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/nov10.pdf

    December : Kens headlines .. ''1 day of sunshine .. most of the rain in the first half then it dries up .. nowhere in Ireland to have a white Christmas .. quite a bit of rain after Christmas ..

    Irish Times summary 24/12/10 : (quoted from Met Eireann) '' the coldest December since records began dating back to the 1850s in some areas ''
    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/1224/1224286236843.html

    Overall that wasn't a particularly accurate forecast , but neither was it hopeless , excepting September/December of course , average day to day forecasts work well for practically anyone even if they are based on an 18year cycle or whatever , trick of an accurate seasonal forecast is to spot a trend , i don't believe Kens predictions are anywhere near his claim of 80% accuracy based on this example .

    Feels like im being ignored here :D , wheres the proof of this legendary accuracy in this prediction Ken , i cant see it .


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    #198
    jamesoc
    Closed Accounts Posts: 57 ✭✭jamesoc


    Now i might actually agree with ''some'' of this ,interesting theory if i understood it all :D , but whats with this image thing Ken , ie that silly hat , are you embarrassed about being bald or something .

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWTLdglIIR4&feature=player_embedded#!


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    #199
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    jamesoc wrote: »
    Now i might actually agree with ''some'' of this , if i understood it all :D , but whats with this image thing Ken , ie that silly hat , are you embarrassed about being bald or something .

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWTLdglIIR4&feature=player_embedded#!


    James your probably veering towards borderline bullying now.There's no need for any remarks about people's appearance.


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    #200
    jamesoc
    Closed Accounts Posts: 57 ✭✭jamesoc


    What bullying are you talking about exactly red , he always wears a hat , in fact he wears many of these hats , so i pass a comment in jest what your problem ?.


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    #201
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    jamesoc wrote: »
    What bullying are you talking about exactly red , he always wears a hat i pass a comment in jest so what your problem .

    No problem just asking someone are they imbarassed bout being bald can sometimes come across offensive.


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    #202
    jamesoc
    Closed Accounts Posts: 57 ✭✭jamesoc


    Embarrassed lol absolutely not , i've fcuk all hair myself some days lol :D ,


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    #203
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    jamesoc wrote: »
    Absolutely not , ive fcuk all hair myself some days lol

    Well you'll def have none left if you keep pulling it out on this thread,lol:D.


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    #204
    Dave!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 27,857 ✭✭✭✭Dave!


    I'm not familiar with Ken or his theories, but I gather he's claiming that the gravitational influence of the moon causes the weather.

    The website posted earlier, sillybeliefs.com, poses the following question:
    As we've already stated elsewhere in this essay, a 1kg melon held one metre above your head evidently produces 200 times as much tidal effect in your body as does the Moon.[5] Humans have even more mass than melons do, so taking this to its logical conclusion a crowd of thousands at some outdoor event must gravitationally affect the local atmosphere to an enormous degree compared to that of the Moon. The affect of the crowd would swamp that of the Moon. Mass migrations of wildebeests must also influence the weather. Why isn't Mr Ring factoring these variables into his forecasts?

    Just wondering what's Ken's response to this.

    And Ken you referred to someone earlier in the thread as an 'anti-astrologist' or something to that effect. Do you believe in astrology? And does it tie into your climate theory at all?

    Cheers

    edit

    wow, just read the following section regarding astrology
    http://www.sillybeliefs.com/ring.html#heading-2c

    Some rather cringe-worthy quotes in there from Mr Ring...


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    #205
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Ken the problem is you don't sell trends or Market your forecast as trends, you sell a very detailed forecast which is in line with claims you have made on a National Radio station that you can forecast any day in the future.

    You don't want to debate your product which is the detailed forecast, you are using copyright to block such a debate because obviously you have something to hide.

    If I get some time I will evaluate your forecast in detail for each month and see what % you get.

    It's funny the analogy you use about the train, most Irish people would expect a train not to arrive on time based on experience and their expectations however based on your self proclaimed accuracy and also your statements on national radio I think they expect more than you provide.

    You don't want debate you just want a free soapbox without question to sell what is in my experience a very poor product.


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    #206
    ch750536
    Registered Users Posts: 3,736 ✭✭✭ch750536


    Dave! wrote: »
    I'm not familiar with Ken or his theories, but I gather he's claiming that the gravitational influence of the moon causes the weather.

    The website posted earlier, sillybeliefs.com, poses the following question:



    Just wondering what's Ken's response to this.

    And Ken you referred to someone earlier in the thread as an 'anti-astrologist' or something to that effect. Do you believe in astrology? And does it tie into your climate theory at all?

    Cheers

    edit

    wow, just read the following section regarding astrology
    http://www.sillybeliefs.com/ring.html#heading-2c

    Some rather cringe-worthy quotes in there from Mr Ring...

    Doing some quick calcs that quote about the melon is completely wrong imo.

    eta, melon-person = .0000000066700n moon-person = 0.46681n I think.


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    #207
    Dave!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 27,857 ✭✭✭✭Dave!


    Yeah just checked, not sure where they got their figures

    Anywho, I just checked it for a Ford Mondeo at a distance of 1m, and that seems to return a higher gravitational force, so I guess the point still stands


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    #208
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Ken's continued dismissal of mainstream meteorologists and saying that his forecasts are not meant for them is a powerful statement. It's like you or I coming up with a cure for cancer but not wanting doctors to do clinical trials on it, just wanting patients to trust me without knowing any better.

    The very people who can dissect and take an objective look at his forecasts are the people he will bash personally. He only wants TodayFM listeners who will believe everything they hear and part with their money without further question. That's their right, but eventually they will see that when events such as the coldest December in several generations go unforecast by him, they might dig deeper and see what exactly they've been paying for. I'll be very interested to hear his defence of his total lack of foresight of the latest event on Cooper this month.


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    #209
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Dave! wrote: »
    Yeah just checked, not sure where they got their figures

    Anywho, I just checked it for a Ford Mondeo at a distance of 1m, and that seems to return a higher gravitational force, so I guess the point still stands
    No, the analogy is entirely incorrect. The Ford is not on a moving road, approaching a moving target. The moon is moving, and so is the earth. Gravitational physics, which describe a falling apple from a static tree to a ground at rest doesn't apply. Only astrological calculations suffice.


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    #210
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Ken's continued dismissal of mainstream meteorologists and saying that his forecasts are not meant for them is a powerful statement. It's like you or I coming up with a cure for cancer but not wanting doctors to do clinical trials on it, just wanting patients to trust me without knowing any better.

    The very people who can dissect and take an objective look at his forecasts are the people he will bash personally. He only wants TodayFM listeners who will believe everything they hear and part with their money without further question. That's their right, but eventually they will see that when events such as the coldest December in several generations go unforecast by him, they might dig deeper and see what exactly they've been paying for. I'll be very interested to hear his defence of his total lack of foresight of the latest event on Cooper this month.
    But I did forecast the cold beginning to winter. I also said the whole season could be milder than winter last year. The averages are already coming up.
    This thread has become a complete and unkind witchhunt. I ask the moderators to close it before damage is done.


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    #211
    Dave!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 27,857 ✭✭✭✭Dave!


    Kenring wrote: »
    No, the analogy is entirely incorrect. The Ford is not on a moving road, approaching a moving target. The moon is moving, and so is the earth. Gravitational physics, which describe a falling apple from a static tree to a ground at rest doesn't apply. Only astrological calculations suffice.
    I can't say I know much about gravitational physics, so will let that point rest, but what about astrology? There's several quotes from you on the link I posted earlier -- assuming they're correct, how do you justify integrating such a silly belief system into your work? It seems very unscientific


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