NZ guy who predicts weather

irishguy

Does anyone know the name of the guy from New Zealand (Or Australia) who predicts long range weather? Think he was in the irish times/RTE a few months ago predicting the current cold spell, 40 days of snow.

Random

was it not a postman from donegal?
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/postman-predicts-respite-from-snow-will-be-brief-2476501.html

delw

irishguy wrote: »

Does anyone know the name of the guy from New Zealand (Or Australia) who predicts long range weather? Think he was in the irish times/RTE a few months ago predicting the current cold spell, 40 days of snow.

his name is Ken Ring & i dont think alot of people on here would agree with his prediction of the cold spell

irishguy

Thanks for the quick reply guys. I am sick of listening to Met Eireann they seem to get it wrong the whole time and the forecasts arent very accurate.

Any recomendations of a more accurate forecasting service?

suitseir

irishguy wrote: »

Thanks for the quick reply guys. I am sick of listening to Met Eireann they seem to get it wrong the whole time and the forecasts arent very accurate.

Any recomendations of a more accurate forecasting service?

Yr.no weatherireland seems to be pretty accurate! I have been tracking this one and it had predicted thaw would not start until 26th.Dec. Also check accuweather ireland.

delw

read the daily forcast stickied at top of main page,M.T posts forcast every day

Rabble Rabble

Ken ring actually posts on Boards. Get to the Weather forum where he posts along with the guy from Irish Weather Online. It is all happening here.

delw

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

Ken ring actually posts on Boards. Get to the Weather forum where he posts along with the guy from Irish Weather Online. It is all happening here.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055948304
yeah its in this thread,you might have to read through it to find his posts

Kenring

delw wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055948304
yeah its in this thread,you might have to read through it to find his posts

Well, I'm here. My forecast was for very cold weather at the end of November, not a white Xmas and a dry but cold first half of January, with precipitation coming in the second half of the month. February should be a milder month. I am not allowed to mention my website here.

isle of man

Kenring wrote: »

I am not allowed to mention my website here.

so you keep telling us

Kenring

isle of man wrote: »

so you keep telling us

No, so the moderators keep warning me, and I don't wish to be barred. They say mention of any websites is regarded as self-promotion. (Mods, does that apply to all, including Met Eirann?)

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

No, so the moderators keep warning me, and I don't wish to be barred. They say mention of any websites is regarded as self-promotion. (Mods, does that apply to all, including Met Eirann?)

Most weather websites aren't making money from it . . .especially ME.

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

Most weather websites aren't making money from it . . .especially ME.

That would be fair enough, but most host banner advertising

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

That would be fair enough, but most host banner advertising

I do remember villain saying that he was paid €75 from google ads in 2 years . . .less than the cost of hosting the site! But i do see your point, maybe there should be a blanket ban on self promoting outside of sigs. Not really my place to decide though!!!:pac:

isle of man

Kenring wrote: »

No, so the moderators keep warning me, and I don't wish to be barred. They say mention of any websites is regarded as self-promotion. (Mods, does that apply to all, including Met Eirann?)

no what i was getting at, is that you do not need to say. "but im not allowed to say my website"

there was no need, and the only reason i can see why you did it was to have a dig at the mods on here.
which really is not needed as to be honest i think they do a good fair job on here.

(blows smoke up mods ass) sorry :P

TheMilkyPirate

Ugh, Here we go again..`

Kenring

isle of man wrote: »

no what i was getting at, is that you do not need to say. "but im not allowed to say my website"

there was no need, and the only reason i can see why you did it was to have a dig at the mods on here.
which really is not needed as to be honest i think they do a good fair job on here.

(blows smoke up mods ass) sorry :P

The mods do do a good job, which is why I am respectful. But it's hard not to self-promote, just by virtue of posting anything. After my warning I find myself walking on eggshells, worried that a word or allusion to my services are seen as reason to cull me. I note that Irish Weather Online has heaps of banners, so do all the other Irish weather sites. It doesn't seem fair. I have no banners but I still offer services. It would be better for mods to just ignore mention of websites if they come up. It is too hard to police. Can you not appreciate that there is an inconsistency because ME are certainly in the commercial world, and a large portion of boardsie. is devoted to discussing what ME puts out. Isn't that advertising?

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

The mods do do a good job, which is why I am respectful. But it's hard not to self-promote, just by virtue of posting anything. After my warning I find myself walking on eggshells, worried that a word or allusion to my services are seen as reason to cull me. I note that Irish Weather Online has heaps of banners, so do all the other Irish weather sites. It doesn't seem fair. I have no banners but I still offer services. It would be better for mods to just ignore mention of websites if they come up. It is too hard to police. Can you not appreciate that there is an inconsistency because ME are certainly in the commercial world, and a large portion of boardsie. is devoted to discussing what ME puts out. Isn't that advertising?

We'd discuss what you put out too if we thought it had any degree of accuracy and if we didn't have to pay for it.

Villain

Ken that offer of a public debate still stands

Stinicker

I must say as a purchaser of Ken's forecasts and his 2011 almanack that I find his predictions are very accurate, I give him far more credibility than some of the stuff we get fed by met eireann etc.

A true forecasting genius so he is.

Joe Public

I do remember a prediction of a milder winter than the last one which would have been a short odds bet then but now not such a dead cert.;)

Is there a link to Ken's long range forecast for this winter as I was searching for it lately and had no luck, I just remembered the milder bit.
I'd be interested to see how accurate it is turning out to be.

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

We'd discuss what you put out too if we thought it had any degree of accuracy and if we didn't have to pay for it.

Whoa, that's a bit harsh. I have several articles on my website that look way ahead for Ireland that are free to read. I make many comments and forecast opinions on boards.ie that I don't charge anyone for.

But the discussion usually turns to the fact that I am an alternative forecaster and am encroaching on the territory of regular meteorologists and their methodology. An excuse is found to paint me in a fraudulent light.

Various things are then thrown at me, like that I am trying to be commercial and that's somehow evil, that I live too far away to know anything and that these moon methods are snakeoil or ME would be using them too.

I am always up for debate about the efficacy of lunar/solar influence on weather, but no one seems prepared to debate this from a theoretical point of view, any discussion quickly becomes just a personal one. Like "I bought a forecast from you once and it was wrong for my town, so it must be all ****e".

Imagine if the same people wrote into ME, how much mail they would have to deal with. Any assessment of the moon method must take into account my claim that a)I don't do temperatures (that is solar), b)there is a 15% error margin, which means 8 weeks in a year, almost a season, c)there is a 50-80 mile applicability and potential discrepancy. And actually that applies to all forecasting.

delw

irishguy wrote: »

Does anyone know the name of the guy from New Zealand (Or Australia) who predicts long range weather? Think he was in the irish times/RTE a few months ago predicting the current cold spell, 40 days of snow.

see what you started irishguy :D:D

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

No, so the moderators keep warning me, and I don't wish to be barred. They say mention of any websites is regarded as self-promotion. (Mods, does that apply to all, including Met Eirann?)

Thats funny, I never remember Gerald Flemming coming on here and posting a link to Met Eirrean's website, do you know what self-promotion means Ken?

keltoms05

so kenring whats your forecast for the month of January in Auckland New Zealand?? Am heading there on the 11th January:D

BEASTERLY

keltoms05 wrote: »

so kenring whats your forecast for the month of January in Auckland New Zealand?? Am heading there on the 11th January:D

Hot with 75% chance of (being ripped off), i mean thunderstorms.

Kenring

Joe Public wrote: »

I do remember a prediction of a milder winter than the last one which would have been a short odds bet then but now not such a dead cert.;)

Is there a link to Ken's long range forecast for this winter as I was searching for it lately and had no luck, I just remembered the milder bit.
I'd be interested to see how accurate it is turning out to be.

Well, as I said, I went for the cold weather clicking-in at the end of November, not a white Xmas and a dry but cold first half of January, with precipitation coming in the second half of the month. February should be a milder month. March should see the last of it with a particularly cold spell around the middle of the month, and a glorious summer with 3 good fortnightly sunny runs. June won't be the best month though.

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

Well, as I said, I went for the cold weather clicking-in at the end of November, not a white Xmas and a dry but cold first half of January, with precipitation coming in the second half of the month. February should be a milder month. March should see the last of it with a particularly cold spell around the middle of the month, and a glorious summer with 3 good fortnightly sunny runs. June won't be the best month though.

In fairnees to ya ken you gave me the best laugh of my life when i heard you on Matt Cooper on Today FM in 2006(I think) and you predicted that it would be a snowy winter(so very wrong) and then you said the snow would come back in May and June! I remember Matt Cooper sounding very shocked, unfortunately there was snow that June:(

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Thats funny, I never remember Gerald Flemming coming on here and posting a link to Met Eirrean's website, do you know what self-promotion means Ken?

I take it to mean advertising and promoting of a service and/or products. If I work for myself then it is obviously selfpromoting because there's no one else here! Not rocket science.

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

I take it to mean advertising and promoting of a service and/or products. If I work for myself then it is obviously selfpromoting because there's no one else here! Not rocket science.

But you said one of us putting a link to ME up was self-promotion?

Kenring

keltoms05 wrote: »

so kenring whats your forecast for the month of January in Auckland New Zealand?? Am heading there on the 11th January:D

Go to my website, heaps of free stuff there about what's coming up for NZ.

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

Go to my website, heaps of free stuff there about what's coming up for NZ.

Any comment on the snow you predicted for June 2007? It's failure to materialize was very disappointing:(

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

But you said one of us putting a link to ME up was self-promotion?

No, promotion. Are you saying that a commercial company promoting services on this webthread is quite acceptable, whereas a one-person company trying to do the same is unethical?

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Any comment on the snow you predicted for June 2007? It's failure to materialize was very disappointing:(

Okay, but before I go back and look into it, if I find one questionable forecast made by Met Eirann in 2007 shall we discuss that too?

Redsunset

Hi Ken,do you feel that low solar activity of recent years has somewhat forced the jet stream on a more southerly path due to it creating kinks in the jet stream?

And i know solar activity is picking up but it's very slow and has caught out all the so called scientists in the field.They keep revising the projected sunspot count to suit the actual in time,so are you in any way thinking that a Dalton like minimum is upon us?

Im just curious to your thoughts on this,as i have my own.

BrokenArrows

Kenring wrote: »

No, promotion. Are you saying that a commercial company promoting services on this webthread is quite acceptable, whereas a one-person company trying to do the same is unethical?

Just put a link to your website in your signature. Links to personally run websites are allowed to be placed in the signature.

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

No, promotion. Are you saying that a commercial company promoting services on this webthread is quite acceptable, whereas a one-person company trying to do the same is unethical?

1. They are NOT a commercial service! They are a public service who get paid and funded regardless of how many people use them!

2.They do NOT promote themselves here, we post the links and charts etc.

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

Okay, but before I go back and look into it, if I find one questionable forecast made by Met Eirann in 2007 shall we discuss that too?

Yes that is fair enough, but we dont pay to look at ME's forecasts

But hold on, as was said above you seem to lack local knowledge, which is understandable, i dont know much about NZ. Your forecast for snow in JUNE 2007 is a prime example of this.

And one further question what qualifications do you have in meteorology/climatology?

Kenring

redsunset wrote: »

Hi Ken,do you feel that low solar activity of recent years has somewhat forced the jet stream on a more southerly path due to it creating kinks in the jet stream?

And i know solar activity is picking up but it's very slow and has caught out all the so called scientists in the field.They keep revising the projected sunspot count to suit the actual in time,so are you in any way thinking that a Dalton like minimum is upon us?

Im just curious to your thoughts on this,as i have my own.

Yes, the sun has been very slow to wake up, and keeps nodding off again. There is no doubt about that, to me. The sun is the wild card because it is so difficult to pin cycles to. They vary so much. But there is no doubt we are heading into another ice age. If not then it would be the first time in all of our geological history that we would have two interglacials back to back.

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Yes that is fair enough, but we dont pay to look at ME's forecasts

You don't pay to read my articles either. Actually you do pay for ME's forecasts. It is called taxes. So - fair enough is what you said - we can go back and analyse a Met Eirann inaccuracy of 2007? And what would it prove? That they were wrong for all time? Would you question every ME worker's qualifications?

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Yes that is fair enough, but we dont pay to look at ME's forecasts

But hold on, as was said above you seem to lack local knowledge, which is understandable, i dont know much about NZ. Your forecast for snow in JUNE 2007 is a prime example of this.

And one further question what qualifications do you have in meteorology/climatology?

Oh spare me..I am not a meteorologist or a climatologist so why would I seek that qualification? Astrometeorology does not have a university chair. Are you saying only people with qualifications are valid members of a society? Good grief! That cuts out most of the members of national sports teams, bestselling authors and academy award actors, top comedians, many politicians, many musicians and entrepreneurs.

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

You don't pay to read my articles either. Actually you do pay for ME's forecasts. It is called taxes. So - fair enough is what you said - we can go back and analyse a Met Eirann inaccuracy of 2007? And what would it prove? That they were wrong for all time? Would you question every ME worker's qualifications?

Well we know the ME forecasters are qualified in their feild. But I asked about you.

I ask about you qualifications because ive dragged up an interesting bit of consumer legislation. Under the Sale of goods and services act 1980 the supplier of the service(you) is required to:

[*] have the necessary skill to provide the service(i.e have relevant qualification their field)
[*] provide the service with proper care and diligence
[*] use sound materials and supplies goods of merchantable quality

Any breech of these legislation while actively selling a service in Ireland(includes online) is 100% illegal.

pauldry

Enjoy reading all this banter with Ken. Anyone who tries to predict the weather is cool as far as Im concerned. We are all trying to find a way of more accurately predicting the weather. I must admit I am failing miserably with my forecasts of late. Ive never seen such extremes as this last month. Usually when I am forecasting I go yeah it will probably be cold but it will hardly be this cold (minus 15c for example) and Irishweatheronline were predicting this really cold spell of weather that we got just before Christmas and I thought "theyr mad they are". But mad or not they were fairly spot on.

I just think we should all give each other a fair crack of the whip coz all these pressure charts are not an exact science and obviously Ken has his own solar lunar method that may help forecasters in the future whether he has qualifications or not. As we have seen from Gerald Winkie Fleming saying its going to stop snowing in Dublin at around teatime on December 22nd was it and then there was 6 more inches in some parts of the capital in the next 6 hours, even short term forecasting with the white stuff can be hard and even in Summer Sea Fog and Northwesterlies often bring unexpected coolness to my shores in Sligo.

Keep it all up everybody. The more forecasters the better I say. Give everyone an equal chance.;)

Kenring

BrokenArrows wrote: »

Just put a link to your website in your signature. Links to personally run websites are allowed to be placed in the signature.

Are you a moderator? Sounds like a bit of entrapment if you're not. I was not told that before or I would have done that.

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

Astrometeorology does not have a university chair.

Says it all really:rolleyes:

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Well we know the ME forecasters are qualified in their feild. But I asked about you.

I ask about you qualifications because ive dragged up an interesting bit of consumer legislation. Under the Sale of goods and services act 1980 the supplier of the service(you) is required to:

• 
  

Any breech of these legislation while actively selling a service in Ireland(includes online) is 100% illegal.

Oh here we go. Then what would you regard as qualification in astrology, in counselling, in selling or painting a house, in window-cleaning, in starting a band? Or should they be rounded up and imprisoned under your regime?

Scubadevils

Fair play Ken for sticking around, you seem to take some amount of abuse here and it would be just as easy not to post again.

I was watching that documentary on More4 earlier which was made around the time of the freeze early this year - it was interesting to note a comment made by the UK met where the guy (can't remember who!) stated that the long range forecasts they make are with about 60% accuracy, 40% leaves a fairly wide error margin.

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

Oh here we go. Then what would you regard as qualification in astrology, in counselling, in selling or painting a house, in window-cleaning, in starting a band? Or should they be rounded up and imprisoned under your regime?

Well if I felt i was ripped off by any of the above, that avenue is there, wouldnt fancy massive fines from the government me self.

BEASTERLY

Scubadevils wrote: »

Fair play Ken for sticking around, you seem to take some amount of abuse here and it would be just as easy not to post again.

I was watching that documentary on More4 earlier which was made around the time of the freeze early this year - it was interesting to note a comment made by the UK met where the guy (can't remember who!) stated that the long range forecasts they make are with about 60% accuracy, 40% leaves a fairly wide error margin.

At least they achieve that, not many can

riffmongous

Scubadevils wrote: »

I was watching that documentary on More4 earlier which was made around the time of the freeze early this year - it was interesting to note a comment made by the UK met where the guy (can't remember who!) stated that the long range forecasts they make are with about 60% accuracy, 40% leaves a fairly wide error margin.

Does anyone know what the S1 score would be for a long range forecast?

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Says it all really:rolleyes:

All it says is that some of us are in ivory towers. Neither is there a chair of cosmology, ecology, graphology, etymology or mythology.
And if I have missed one
apology:D