NZ guy who predicts weather

BEASTERLY · 30-12-2010 1:32am

Kenring wrote: »

Go to my website, heaps of free stuff there about what's coming up for NZ.

Any comment on the snow you predicted for June 2007? It's failure to materialize was very disappointing:(

Kenring · 30-12-2010 1:33am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

But you said one of us putting a link to ME up was self-promotion?

No, promotion. Are you saying that a commercial company promoting services on this webthread is quite acceptable, whereas a one-person company trying to do the same is unethical?

Kenring · 30-12-2010 1:34am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Any comment on the snow you predicted for June 2007? It's failure to materialize was very disappointing:(

Okay, but before I go back and look into it, if I find one questionable forecast made by Met Eirann in 2007 shall we discuss that too?

Redsunset · 30-12-2010 1:35am

Hi Ken,do you feel that low solar activity of recent years has somewhat forced the jet stream on a more southerly path due to it creating kinks in the jet stream?

And i know solar activity is picking up but it's very slow and has caught out all the so called scientists in the field.They keep revising the projected sunspot count to suit the actual in time,so are you in any way thinking that a Dalton like minimum is upon us?

Im just curious to your thoughts on this,as i have my own.

BrokenArrows · 30-12-2010 1:38am

Kenring wrote: »

No, promotion. Are you saying that a commercial company promoting services on this webthread is quite acceptable, whereas a one-person company trying to do the same is unethical?

Just put a link to your website in your signature. Links to personally run websites are allowed to be placed in the signature.

BEASTERLY · 30-12-2010 1:38am

Kenring wrote: »

No, promotion. Are you saying that a commercial company promoting services on this webthread is quite acceptable, whereas a one-person company trying to do the same is unethical?

1. They are NOT a commercial service! They are a public service who get paid and funded regardless of how many people use them!

2.They do NOT promote themselves here, we post the links and charts etc.

BEASTERLY · 30-12-2010 1:40am

Kenring wrote: »

Okay, but before I go back and look into it, if I find one questionable forecast made by Met Eirann in 2007 shall we discuss that too?

Yes that is fair enough, but we dont pay to look at ME's forecasts

But hold on, as was said above you seem to lack local knowledge, which is understandable, i dont know much about NZ. Your forecast for snow in JUNE 2007 is a prime example of this.

And one further question what qualifications do you have in meteorology/climatology?

Kenring · 30-12-2010 1:40am

redsunset wrote: »

Hi Ken,do you feel that low solar activity of recent years has somewhat forced the jet stream on a more southerly path due to it creating kinks in the jet stream?

And i know solar activity is picking up but it's very slow and has caught out all the so called scientists in the field.They keep revising the projected sunspot count to suit the actual in time,so are you in any way thinking that a Dalton like minimum is upon us?

Im just curious to your thoughts on this,as i have my own.

Yes, the sun has been very slow to wake up, and keeps nodding off again. There is no doubt about that, to me. The sun is the wild card because it is so difficult to pin cycles to. They vary so much. But there is no doubt we are heading into another ice age. If not then it would be the first time in all of our geological history that we would have two interglacials back to back.

Kenring · 30-12-2010 1:48am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Yes that is fair enough, but we dont pay to look at ME's forecasts

You don't pay to read my articles either. Actually you do pay for ME's forecasts. It is called taxes. So - fair enough is what you said - we can go back and analyse a Met Eirann inaccuracy of 2007? And what would it prove? That they were wrong for all time? Would you question every ME worker's qualifications?

Kenring · 30-12-2010 1:58am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Yes that is fair enough, but we dont pay to look at ME's forecasts

But hold on, as was said above you seem to lack local knowledge, which is understandable, i dont know much about NZ. Your forecast for snow in JUNE 2007 is a prime example of this.

And one further question what qualifications do you have in meteorology/climatology?

Oh spare me..I am not a meteorologist or a climatologist so why would I seek that qualification? Astrometeorology does not have a university chair. Are you saying only people with qualifications are valid members of a society? Good grief! That cuts out most of the members of national sports teams, bestselling authors and academy award actors, top comedians, many politicians, many musicians and entrepreneurs.

BEASTERLY · 30-12-2010 2:00am

Kenring wrote: »

You don't pay to read my articles either. Actually you do pay for ME's forecasts. It is called taxes. So - fair enough is what you said - we can go back and analyse a Met Eirann inaccuracy of 2007? And what would it prove? That they were wrong for all time? Would you question every ME worker's qualifications?

Well we know the ME forecasters are qualified in their feild. But I asked about you.

I ask about you qualifications because ive dragged up an interesting bit of consumer legislation. Under the Sale of goods and services act 1980 the supplier of the service(you) is required to:

[*] have the necessary skill to provide the service(i.e have relevant qualification their field)
[*] provide the service with proper care and diligence
[*] use sound materials and supplies goods of merchantable quality

Any breech of these legislation while actively selling a service in Ireland(includes online) is 100% illegal.

pauldry · 30-12-2010 2:02am

Enjoy reading all this banter with Ken. Anyone who tries to predict the weather is cool as far as Im concerned. We are all trying to find a way of more accurately predicting the weather. I must admit I am failing miserably with my forecasts of late. Ive never seen such extremes as this last month. Usually when I am forecasting I go yeah it will probably be cold but it will hardly be this cold (minus 15c for example) and Irishweatheronline were predicting this really cold spell of weather that we got just before Christmas and I thought "theyr mad they are". But mad or not they were fairly spot on.

I just think we should all give each other a fair crack of the whip coz all these pressure charts are not an exact science and obviously Ken has his own solar lunar method that may help forecasters in the future whether he has qualifications or not. As we have seen from Gerald Winkie Fleming saying its going to stop snowing in Dublin at around teatime on December 22nd was it and then there was 6 more inches in some parts of the capital in the next 6 hours, even short term forecasting with the white stuff can be hard and even in Summer Sea Fog and Northwesterlies often bring unexpected coolness to my shores in Sligo.

Keep it all up everybody. The more forecasters the better I say. Give everyone an equal chance.;)

Kenring · 30-12-2010 2:04am

BrokenArrows wrote: »

Just put a link to your website in your signature. Links to personally run websites are allowed to be placed in the signature.

Are you a moderator? Sounds like a bit of entrapment if you're not. I was not told that before or I would have done that.

BEASTERLY · 30-12-2010 2:09am

Kenring wrote: »

Astrometeorology does not have a university chair.

Says it all really:rolleyes:

Kenring · 30-12-2010 2:09am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Well we know the ME forecasters are qualified in their feild. But I asked about you.

I ask about you qualifications because ive dragged up an interesting bit of consumer legislation. Under the Sale of goods and services act 1980 the supplier of the service(you) is required to:

Any breech of these legislation while actively selling a service in Ireland(includes online) is 100% illegal.

Oh here we go. Then what would you regard as qualification in astrology, in counselling, in selling or painting a house, in window-cleaning, in starting a band? Or should they be rounded up and imprisoned under your regime?

Scubadevils · 30-12-2010 2:11am

Fair play Ken for sticking around, you seem to take some amount of abuse here and it would be just as easy not to post again.

I was watching that documentary on More4 earlier which was made around the time of the freeze early this year - it was interesting to note a comment made by the UK met where the guy (can't remember who!) stated that the long range forecasts they make are with about 60% accuracy, 40% leaves a fairly wide error margin.

BEASTERLY · 30-12-2010 2:13am

Kenring wrote: »

Oh here we go. Then what would you regard as qualification in astrology, in counselling, in selling or painting a house, in window-cleaning, in starting a band? Or should they be rounded up and imprisoned under your regime?

Well if I felt i was ripped off by any of the above, that avenue is there, wouldnt fancy massive fines from the government me self.

BEASTERLY · 30-12-2010 2:14am

Scubadevils wrote: »

Fair play Ken for sticking around, you seem to take some amount of abuse here and it would be just as easy not to post again.

I was watching that documentary on More4 earlier which was made around the time of the freeze early this year - it was interesting to note a comment made by the UK met where the guy (can't remember who!) stated that the long range forecasts they make are with about 60% accuracy, 40% leaves a fairly wide error margin.

At least they achieve that, not many can

riffmongous · 30-12-2010 2:32am

Scubadevils wrote: »

I was watching that documentary on More4 earlier which was made around the time of the freeze early this year - it was interesting to note a comment made by the UK met where the guy (can't remember who!) stated that the long range forecasts they make are with about 60% accuracy, 40% leaves a fairly wide error margin.

Does anyone know what the S1 score would be for a long range forecast?

Kenring · 30-12-2010 4:01am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Says it all really:rolleyes:

All it says is that some of us are in ivory towers. Neither is there a chair of cosmology, ecology, graphology, etymology or mythology.
And if I have missed one
apology:D

Kenring · 30-12-2010 4:18am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Any comment on the snow you predicted for June 2007? It's failure to materialize was very disappointing:(

Just looked it up. Lough Navar Forest got some on 30 May 2007.
Close enough for you?

Now it's your turn. Show me where Met Eirann predicted that. I'm willing to allow a couple of days either side.

Villain · 30-12-2010 9:31am

I take it Ken that you won't agree to a public debate then?

WolfeIRE · 30-12-2010 11:17am

Kenring wrote: »

I note that Irish Weather Online has heaps of banners, so do all the other Irish weather sites. It doesn't seem fair. I have no banners but I still offer services. ?

Hi Ken,

They are not paying advertisers on IWO. They are just links to other websites that contribute to the website. The same applies to the askmoby 5-day widget on the website banner. I can understand how they all look like paying advertisers.

We do not charge for any of the info on the website.

Wolfe

BEASTERLY · 30-12-2010 11:38am

Kenring wrote: »

Just looked it up. Lough Navar Forest got some on 30 May 2007.
Close enough for you?

Now it's your turn. Show me where Met Eirann predicted that. I'm willing to allow a couple of days either side.

Do you have proof of this ken? A link to where you saw this report would be nice.

Kenring · 30-12-2010 11:51am

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Hi Ken,

They are not paying advertisers on IWO. They are just links to other websites that contribute to the website. The same applies to the askmoby 5-day widget on the website banner. I can understand how they all look like paying advertisers.

We do not charge for any of the info on the website.

Wolfe

Neither do I on mine. The product services are in the backend. So you are claiming that on one hand no one associated with IWO achieves monetary gain, there is no PR benefit that leads to income or prestige that eventuates in income for any contributor, and which gives the impression that the website it is purely a hobby environment for all concerned - yet you have just admitted that the links are referral platforms and a promotional base for other websites. To me, that makes IWO a commercial facility, just as surely as if I said, in a (free) interview to an Irish radio station that I always fly Ryan Air when I visit Dublin and I stay at the Clarence.

Kenring · 30-12-2010 12:02pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Do you have proof of this ken? A link to where you saw this report would be nice.

Well yes it is nice, and of course I do, I wouldn't make that up knowing it could be disputed.

Seems I have called someone's bluff then.
And no, I won't disclose my source as I would get the supplier into trouble for helping me at a time when Met Eirann were less than willing to part with any archival data whatsoever, except for a fee so exorbitant I would have had to sell my house.

So I got them in another way, through their backdoor in a manner of speaking. But I'm sure someone here has these figures - if not then why be so gung-ho as to challenge me on them?

BEASTERLY · 30-12-2010 12:05pm

Kenring wrote: »

Just looked it up. Lough Navar Forest got some on 30 May 2007.
Close enough for you?

Now it's your turn. Show me where Met Eirann predicted that. I'm willing to allow a couple of days either side.

ME could jot have forecasted that because it did not happen. Just checked the chart archives and we had a mild SWerly over on the day in question. Why did you lie about it?

Kenring · 30-12-2010 12:07pm

Villain wrote: »

I take it Ken that you won't agree to a public debate then?

I think that's what we're having here. I tried debating with you once but you were happier with personality assasination, so I gave up.

Kenring · 30-12-2010 12:07pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

ME could jot have forecasted that because it did not happen. Just checked the chart archives and we had a mild SWerly over on the day in question. Why did you lie about it?

I didn't. I have their figures.

BEASTERLY · 30-12-2010 12:22pm

Kenring wrote: »

I didn't. I have their figures.

LOL, Strange that considering the weather station in lough navar is run by the UKMO so the data from there would not be in ME's 'figures'.

Sorry but i find that hilarious:D

NZ guy who predicts weather

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