NZ guy who predicts weather

Rabble Rabble

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Well we know the ME forecasters are qualified in their feild. But I asked about you.

I ask about you qualifications because ive dragged up an interesting bit of consumer legislation. Under the Sale of goods and services act 1980 the supplier of the service(you) is required to:

Any breech of these legislation while actively selling a service in Ireland(includes online) is 100% illegal.

Which might make IWO illegal, right?

Your argument is an argument to authority ( or credentials) and is bogus. It would end climate change debate, as only climatologists could discuss it. Einstein would have been ignored. And so on.


I have no idea about Ring's accuracy, or not - it is easy to cherry pick failed forecasts, but that can work anywhere. Yesterday the MO were predicting snow in the UK in what turned out to be a total rain event. But he has some kind of mathmatical model, so let's discuss that without the bickering

jamesoc

No point in trying to hide behind ME forecasts Ken , they dont do LRF , but you do , and they're hopeless , the man who purchased one keeps telling you , utterly useless and a complete waste of money .

Re your New Years Day prediction on the older thread from 2 weeks ago ..
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055948304&page=80
post 1186

Originally Posted by jamesoc
Simple Ken , lets have a sample forecast for Carlow 1st Jan 2011 , yes or no
''Very cold, snowing, followed by a dry spell of about 10-12 days or so.''

Im waiting

Brenireland

I don't see why its all attack,attack and attack here!,Ken Ring knows his stuff simple as!,He's the author of 25 books & has his own weather website he is looked up to by many not just here in Ireland but more importantly in the Uk & Australasia!

no need for him to feel threatened by nobodies & their rants about Qualifications.

Our government ministers are all qualified in some department look where they got us.

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

LOL, Strange that considering the weather station in lough navar is run by the UKMO so the data from there would not be in ME's 'figures'.

Sorry but i find that hilarious:D

Ah, of course. I stand corrected. It is all on my one big database now so I didn't notice that.

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

Just looked it up. Lough Navar Forest got some on 30 May 2007.
Close enough for you?

Now it's your turn. Show me where Met Eirann predicted that. I'm willing to allow a couple of days either side.

Freely available on ME's website:

Tuesday 29th: Long sunny spells everywhere. During the late afternoon,
cloud increased in the southwest and there were outbreaks of rain by evening.
Winds were light and variable, becoming fresh to strong in the southwest later.
Rainfall: nil to <1mm, heaviest at Malin Head and Valentia
Temperature: max. 12°C to 16°C, min. 0°C to 6°C, ground temperatures
below zero at all inland stations, down to -7°C at Birr
Sunshine: 10 to 15 hours, sunniest at Casement Aerodrome, 10 hours at Clones
Wednesday 30th: Rain in the southwest spread gradually northeastwards
during the day to give some heavy falls, particularly in the south. Long sunny
spells in the extreme north, but duller elsewhere. Winds were variable or
southeasterly, light to moderate with occasional gusts in the south.
Rainfall: nil to 16mm, heaviest at Cork Airport, nil at Belmullet and Malin Head
Temperature: max. 12°C to 17°C, min. 1°C to 10°C, ground temperatures
down to -3°C at Casement Aerodrome and Mullingar
Sunshine: trace to 13 hours, sunniest at Malin Head, trace at Valentia
Thursday 31st: Showers from early morning, mainly in midland areas, some
heavy and with thunder. The showers continued through the afternoon, but
became well-scattered by evening to give mostly dry and sunny weather,
especially in the east. Winds were light to moderate, variable in direction.
Rainfall: nil to 13mm, heaviest at Knock Airport
Temperature: max. 15°C to 19°C, min. 6°C to 11°C, no ground frost
Sunshine: 3 to 13 hours, sunniest at Rosslare, 3 hours at Casement Aerodrome

I cant see where snow would have been possible there. 12-17 by the time the precip reached the northern half of the country. Mins of 1c are fairly common on clear night in may but temps would rise significantly when cloud arrives or the sun comes up.

WolfeIRE

Kenring wrote: »

gives the impression that the website it is purely a hobby environment for all concerned - yet you have just admitted that the links are referral platforms and a promotional base for other websites. To me, that makes IWO a commercial facility, just as surely as if I said, in a (free) interview to an Irish radio station that I always fly Ryan Air when I visit Dublin and I stay at the Clarence.

The banners on the website are for websites that provide IWO with information free of charge. It's a courtesy. You are welcome to send me on your link and latest postings if you want and I will share it/them too.

Kenring

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

Which might make IWO illegal, right?

Your argument is an argument to authority ( or credentials) and is bogus. It would end climate change debate, as only climatologists could discuss it. Einstein would have been ignored. And so on.


I have no idea about Ring's accuracy, or not - it is easy to cherry pick failed forecasts, but that can work anywhere. Yesterday the MO were predicting snow in the UK in what turned out to be a total rain event. But he has some kind of mathmatical model, so let's discuss that without the bickering

What is at stake is possibly professional jealousy. They are worried they may have to change their ideas if proven wrong. Bluster is always a firstdefense when threatened. So you have to ask, what's the threat? If there was no perceived threat the debate would be humming along. It was Mark Twain who said the worst tempered people he ever met were those who knew they were wrong.

jamesoc

Brenireland wrote: »

I don't see why its all attack,attack and attack here!,Ken Ring knows his stuff simple as!,He's the author of 25 books & has his own weather website he is looked up to by many not just here in Ireland but more importantly in the Uk & Australasia!
no need for him to feel threatened by nobodies & their rants about Qualifications.
Our government ministers are all qualified in some department look where they got us.

How many of these books were scientific publications , Ken writes books about reading cats paws and astrology , he knows nothing about climate .

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

He posted a video on his website where he argued against global warming, it turned out that he tought the greenhouse effect was the actual heat from exhausts and chimneys caused the warming ?

Oh, so now the heat doesn't cause the warming?? Now I've heard everything.
Must put my beer in the oven to cool it..

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Freely available on ME's website:


I cant see where snow would have been possible there. 12-17 by the time the precip reached the northern half of the country. Mins of 1c are fairly common on clear night in may but temps would rise significantly when cloud arrives or the sun comes up.

ground temperatures
"..down to -3°C at Casement Aerodrome and Mullingar"
That's enough for snow. Don't see the Forest listed

jamesoc

Kenring wrote: »

Oh, so now the heat doesn't cause the warming??

A very very strange statement :eek:

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

No because their material is free, and accuarate, and M.T and Su Campu(the forecasters on there) have qualifications.

If thjey have qualifications then they are earning money from these activities

Brenireland

Ken,Just wondering could you tell me what our summer 2011 will consist of?,Really need lots of sun this time around!

Kenring

Brenireland wrote: »

Ken,Just wondering could you tell me what our summer 2011 will consist of?,Really need lots of sun this time around!

And I think you'll get lots. 3 lots, starting in May. It's on my website. Free.

Brenireland

Kenring wrote: »

And I think you'll get lots. 3 lots, starting in May. It's on my website. Free.

Brilliant thanks,finally looks like our season maybe back to normal!,cold winter and warm sunny summers!,& thanks I will definitely keep an eye out on your website for forecasts!:)

BEASTERLY

Kenring wrote: »

If thjey have qualifications then they are earning money from these activities

Not on IWO, it is FREE. If you would like to know about their qqualification its in a newspaper article about IWO.

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Not on IWO, it is FREE. If you would like to know about their qqualification its in a newspaper article about IWO.

I'm not that naive. It all leads back to money, through promotion of services, awareness of who is good at what, availability of services, advertising of qualifications and prestige. Otherwise, why get any qualifications? They are hoped-for meal tickets.

Rabble Rabble

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Not on IWO, it is FREE. If you would like to know about their qqualification its in a newspaper article about IWO.

Presumably they make money from advertising. Google is also free. But commercial.

In any case science can go on outside the credited universities. Like a patent office. No idea if Ken is any good. Don't care.

Brenireland

Ken If I were you Id ignore all the talk of Qualifications etc....

Qualifications up to a year or two ago meant a lot here in Ireland but thankfully this is no longer the case!,One of our best forecasters in Ireland in recent years has been a postman from Donegal who predicted our weather for the last few years with pin-point accuracy which our ME failed to...This man is not Qualified he uses nature & signs from nature,Qualifications mean nothing unless you have an understanding/interest in what you talk about.

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Ground temp there ken has no effect on snow, air temp does. ..Ken, you continually show that you know very little about weather at all, i mean you dont know what ground temp is, come on...

.

Rubbish. Colder air falls, cooling the ground. If ground temperature is at or below freezing, the snow will reach the ground.

WolfeIRE

Kenring wrote: »

I'm not that naive. It all leads back to money, through promotion of services, awareness of who is good at what, availability of services, advertising of qualifications and prestige. Otherwise, why get any qualifications? They are hoped-for meal tickets.

Because one of the named persons is retired and the other is employed in another profession. They are interested in talking about the weather and sharing their views with others. I have a first class honours degree in History, yet I run a PR company. Ultimately we all have an interest in weather and wish to exchange with the many hundreds of thousands of others in this country also interested in the weather.

If you charge for some of your services then best of luck to you. We do not and never will. If we ever decide to pursure corporate sponsorship and/or advertising then it would be reasonable to suggest those involved with the running of the IWO enjoy the benefits of same. The goal is to continue to develop the site for the benefit of users.

Mollymawk

Boys, boys, boys!!
What on earth is going on here!!!!??????
If I was a primary school teacher I might know how to deal with this "I said/you said" "nah-nah-nah-nah" bloody awful bickering. I assumed that all posters here were adults, but this reads really badly, guys.
I don't see that it is necessary to argue over the quality of a forecast. It will prove itself right or wrong in time anyway.
I'm a newbie here. I've been avidly following the weather forum for about a month. I have no qualifications as a meteorologist, unless you count an Offshore Yachtmasters ticket. I have been in awe of many of the regular posters here, I would love to have a greater understanding of systems and trends. I like to think I have an open mind, and would never dismiss lunar influences, any more than I would base a forecast entirely on the moon's activities.
As far as the qualifications argument goes, the most reliable forecasters I know rely on data as vague as the sound of the sea on a particular shoreline, the type of wrack that's washed up, and the colour of the mountains. All of that fits into the "now-casting" bracket, I understand, but it's impressive, dependable, and requires no university education, only a sensitivity to the world around us and a respect for the observations of generations of people whose quality of life literally depended on the weather.
I'm sure that this thread will run out of steam soon, but in the meantime it's simply diminishing my respect for regular posters here who have, in the past, seriously impressed me with their knowledge and intuition on all things weather-related.
Let your forecasts stand for themselves. The proof is in the pudding. And please, please, cease and desist from the bickering. It only serves to damage your own credibility here.
Peace and goodwill to all mankind!!

Kenring

Brenireland wrote: »

Ken If I were you Id ignore all the talk of Qualifications etc....

Qualifications up to a year or two ago meant a lot here in Ireland but thankfully this is no longer the case!,One of our best forecasters in Ireland in recent years has been a postman from Donegal who predicted our weather for the last few years with pin-point accuracy which our ME failed to...This man is not Qualified he uses nature & signs from nature,Qualifications mean nothing unless you have an understanding/interest in what you talk about.

I agree. A qualification can be an excuse for experience. In Australia the only people who know anything at all about Australian climate are the Aboriginal elders and wise men of the tribe. Most of them can't even read and write. When they up and move, you know something bad is coming to an area. The meteorologists scurry to their books, written by others who have read other books. That's why they call everything an anomaly. Weather is not something you study. It is something you live out in, and get to know. That's why farmers and fishermen are the experts. And they and the Aborigines have no qualifications.

Mollymawk

Weather is not something you study. It is something you live out in, and get to know. (Quote from above post - new to this, and not getting all the tricks of posting yet!)


Now, this is where I beg to differ. I listen with great respect to the opinions of elders and betters, but would never, never dismiss the importance of studying weather scientifically, with the aim of increasing our understanding of how and why things happen.

Kenring

Mollymawk wrote: »

Weather is not something you study. It is something you live out in, and get to know. (Quote from above post - new to this, and not getting all the tricks of posting yet!)


Now, this is where I beg to differ. I listen with great respect to the opinions of elders and betters, but would never, never dismiss the importance of studying weather scientifically, with the aim of increasing our understanding of how and why things happen.

Fair enough, in that sense of study, yes. I was talking about qualifications as being the be-all and end-all. I have never stopped studying it, and I started in 1968

An Ri rua

Kenring wrote: »

I agree. A qualification can be an excuse for experience. In Australia the only people who know anything at all about Australian climate are the Aboriginal elders and wise men of the tribe. Most of them can't even read and write. When they up and move, you know something bad is coming to an area. The meteorologists scurry to their books, written by others who have read other books. That's why they call everything an anomaly. Weather is not something you study. It is something you live out in, and get to know. That's why farmers and fishermen are the experts. And they and the Aborigines have no qualifications.

+1. There are posters here who think they can bully others into submission by scare tactics. I have read the work of Ken Ring (and the Donegal postman) with interest since they've been airing publicly. The OP asked for info about Ken Ring and then when Ken Ring comes on to talk directly, he is bashed and I would say defamed?

The lunatic who brought the 'qualifications' argument to bear vis-a-vis Irish legislation is literally full of hot air. Bring that nonsense to the law forum or the business forum and see how far you get. Judges apply common sense and 'qualification' can be bestowed by common consensus of the public, of time and of reputation, not just by external bodies. Would you ever go and take a common sense pill?

If Ken Ring was to throw down I-Ching sticks (or Met Eireann for that matter) and get reasonably good forecast results, NOBODY WOULD CARE!! We just want to get a reasonable forecast, something that is lost on your iterative mind.

I greatly enjoy the rise of IWO and I also enjoy the work of Ken Ring and I must say that there is room for all forecasting. If someone states clearly that these are the methods by which they FORECAST, then that is qualifying the purchase and informing the buyer. That's how it goes in financial markets too? there are mavericks who get it right, get it wrong, but they don't claim 100% accuracy? What's not to get about that, Beasterly? Is that transparency lost on you in your fog of vehemency? Who are you to decide for the rest of us savvy punters. I think the most you know about weather forecasting is your sofa and Joan Blackburn's tasteful leather skirts

Kenring

Kenring wrote: »

I agree. A qualification can be an excuse for experience. In Australia the only people who know anything at all about Australian climate are the Aboriginal elders and wise men of the tribe. Most of them can't even read and write. When they up and move, you know something bad is coming to an area. The meteorologists scurry to their books, written by others who have read other books. That's why they call everything an anomaly. Weather is not something you study. It is something you live out in, and get to know. That's why farmers and fishermen are the experts. And they and the Aborigines have no qualifications.

I think we are getting mixed up here with the definition of expert.
Of course people that live out in weather all the time get a feel for what it's doing.They don't know that it's going to snow tuesday or how much or if the temperature is going above 30c wenesday etc.
But forecasters in the met offices of this world deal in specifics not generalities ie whats going to happen in the next week.Thats their main job and whats expected of them.It's very different to their expectations of your service.
Most of them don't bother with lrf's anymore,though the UKMO do , but only in generalisms.

Ken your tautology is entirely different to that of a met office so I don't see the point of this argy bargy here.
Climatologists and meterologists do study weather for a different end to why you seem to be saying studying it doesn't make you know more about it.They study it for the science behind it and the reasons why we have had x,y or Z weather and use that knowledge to tell me if it will snow on thursday.

Like is not being compared with like here in this argey bargey...so it's best stopped.

Mollymawk

[I have never stopped studying it, and I started in 1968]


Most excellent. Keep up the good work. The day any of us stop learning from each other will be a very sad one indeed.

I, for one, am on here to learn. From everyone. I will filter all information through my own reasonably intelligent brain and come to my own conclusions.

Kenring

Deleted User wrote: »

I think we are getting mixed up here with the definition of expert.
Of course people that live out in weather all the time get a feel for what it's doing.They don't know that it's going to snow tuesday or how much or if the temperature is going above 30c wenesday etc.
But forecasters in the met offices of this world deal in specifics not generalities ie whats going to happen in the next week.Thats their main job and whats expected of them.It's very different to their expectations of your service.
Most of them don't bother with lrf's anymore,though the UKMO do , but only in generalisms.

Ken your tautology is entirely different to that of a met office so I don't see the point of this argy bargy here.
Climatologists and meterologists do study weather for a different end to why you seem to be saying studying it doesn't make you know more about it.They study it for the science behind it and the reasons why we have had x,y or Z weather and use that knowledge to tell me if it will snow on thursday.

Like is not being compared with like here in this argey bargey...so it's best stopped.

Exactly. And I didn't start all this by attacking myself. But I have to defend my name because I have a family and we are in the public eye. longrange weather is entirly different to day-to-day stuff, and what ME do and what I do should be parallel in the marketplace. But they seem to think they should be also doing what I do, and that they should be the only voice. That they have no system is of no consequence. That they only see rain when it comes onto the radar doesn't seem to stop them saying what rain will be coming in 3 months time.
The moon and lunar cycles was used for thousands of years. It was the Church that stopped all that because the Church didn't like people making predictions. It competed with the Hand of God and the Will of God. It is why all non-Christian cultures retained the lunar calendar and lunar forecasting, lunar festivals etc., and why the moon, the essential calendric symbol of measurement, (me = moon) was declared pagan 2000 years ago, and why the persecutions and inquisitions began then.
Just look at the weather now. The moon is in the south and that brings raised temperatures. The coldest parts of winter have been when the moon was right in the north - 22-25 Nov and 20-25 Dec.

thetonynator

Ken was probably right about the snow in may 2007. Widespread ground frost at the time, some hail and an air frost in birr were recorded towards the end of may 2007.

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/may07.pdf