NZ guy who predicts weather

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

Ken was probably right about the snow in may 2007. Widespread ground frost at the time, some hail and an air frost in birr were recorded towards the end of may 2007.

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/may07.pdf

Thanks, appreciate the post.

jamesoc

Lol , if posters are happy with Kens forecasts thats fine by me , go ahead and purchase his predictions for next year or wharever its a free country .

Bear in mind its also a free country for me , im just as entitled to express my own negative negative opinion on his Mistic Meg methods of so called forecasting .

Ask him why his long range predictions seem to have missed the 3 record breaking events of the last 14 months ie ..
1 the record breaking rain of Nov 08
2the record breaking freeze of last Dec/Jan 09/10
3rd the record breaking freeze of this December

Would suggest that people have a careful look at his dismal record to now before they praise his future possible achievements .

Ring is a joke amongst the scientific community , he record as a forecaster is a laughing stock in Aus and NZ ,http://www.sillybeliefs.com/ring.html , only reason he posts here is to garner publicity for his website IMO :rolleyes: .

Ken when you get a break from reading the cats paws , have a look at these UK sites , some reputable people who know something about meteorology post there , i suggest you explain to them about your em theories about the subject .

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

http://www.netweather.tv/

Give it a go Ken , the uk is quite close-by , so LRF'g for our near neighbours should be very little challenge for a man of you self belief .
Give it a go .

BEASTERLY

thetonynator wrote: »

Ken was probably right about the snow in may 2007. Widespread ground frost at the time, some hail and an air frost in birr were recorded towards the end of may 2007.

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/may07.pdf

But did the air frost coincide with precip, prob not. On the day in question avergae temps were 12-17c

jamesoc

I really wish other people would do a little research before they post on this most complicated matter , just check back on some of the older threads on Boards , Ring has posted enough material there to dig a hole for himself from here to Nz , the guy takes arrogance to an entirely new level , no wonder so many posters are riled by this guys BULL S..T .

I'll say it yet again , only one person in this debate has actually purchased Ken's em long range forecasts , the rest of us should pay some attention to Villain's verdict : AND HE IS NOT HAPPY .

An Ri rua

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Says the man who has never posted in the weather forum before, :rolleyes:.

And you think wrong, i presume i know a lot more than you on the subject, so dont try to argue on a topic you know nothing about, right?.

Look, it takes a special breed of human to do long range forecasting right, M.T is that special breed:D, and im yet to find anybody else who come close

How do you know whether you know more than me on the subject of meteorology? How could you possibly know that?? You sound insecure. You 'presume' a lot, don't you, for a Boardsie who is proclaiming scientific method?

An Ri rua

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Somebody finally talks some sense here.

Just to note the only people sticking up for ken here and that are gunning for me are people ive never seen in the weather forum before, so i presume dont have much knowledge or understanding about the technical side of forecasting. Any serious poster here who has the first clue about how the atmosphere works will agree with me.

So, its a closed shop, is it Beasterly? I would imagine that the 'never seen' people are arriving to the weather forum due to the almost 'never seen' weather we've been experiencing. cause and effect, old bean. A basic law in scientific circles....

thetonynator

BEASTERLY wrote: »

But did the air frost coincide with precip, prob not. On the day in question avergae temps were 12-17c

I'm not involved in this debate, i just looked up the statistics for the end of may and it was unseasonably cold, with widespread ground frost, some air frost and some frozen precipitation at the time.

Brenireland

anyone else here love tayto crisp's?

jamesoc

after all if Ken doesn't agree with some peoples opinions here then he can simply stop posting on an Irish discussion site .

Woops , i take that back , after all the entertainment is well worth the admission fee .

thetonynator

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The moon does play a very small part in our weather, of course it does, but if it was the only one we would the same weather every 28 days, think about it.

Not quite true, we would still have seasons, the different positioning and strength of the moon would change the weather, but yes, as you say it is quite clearly not the only influence.

Correct me if i'm wrong but doesn't M.T. use the lunar influence in his longer range forecasting???

waterways

Good morning Ken,

sorry, I cannot find any "free" forecast for Ireland 2011 on your website. Any hint? You are free to send me a PM.

Some of your past long range forecasts were right, some totally wrong. What is your personal qoute?

It seems to me that you predict always a range, including your original thoughts and the opposite together. Just to be on the safe side? You are a former math teacher, so you should get my point, beyond communication problems.

You avoid "to be caught". This is your right as a commercial seller. But you are also avoiding a real discussion of your past predictions and the (YOUR) data.

IMHO you are trying to sell your products but not to get any appreciation here by boardies which are really interested in serious forecasts and to improve them and to develop the models.

waterways

Hi Beasterly,

0% are not right.

Please, let Ken answer my questions.

And, Ken, I don't accept simple answers going around circles.

Kenring

jamesoc wrote: »

I really wish other people would do a little research before they post on this most complicated matter , just check back on some of the older threads on Boards , Ring has posted enough material there to dig a hole for himself from here to Nz , the guy takes arrogance to an entirely new level , no wonder so many posters are riled by this guys BULL S..T .

I'll say it yet again , only one person in this debate has actually purchased Ken's em long range forecasts , the rest of us should pay some attention to Villain's verdict : AND HE IS NOT HAPPY .

What do you expect? Villain runs a weather website, and he admitted he purchased my report to look for fault. Look for it and you'll find it. What we have here is a group of meteorologists who think they are the only ones knowledgeable enough to comment on weather patterns. But I have yet to see a longrange report from any of them, bar MTC, who uses lunar methods as I do.

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Are you going to put any evidence forward for the debate in question or are going play the personal abuse game.

The moon does play a very small part in our weather, of course it does, but if it was the only one we would the same weather every 28 days, think about it.

If it was that easy every forecast on the world would be based on it.

Well, the month is a mini-moon cycle, and to some extent the trends do carry over, so that a cold first week in a 28-day month will repeat the next month. But months of 30 and 31 days put that one out after a month. besides, the moon's month is not just 28 days. Full moon etc is on a 29.5day cycle, perigees a 27.3 day cycle, and declinations 27.5. It means each month is different. The repeatability of all of them in the same way such that it all starts again from scratch comes into play approximately once every 200 years.
And more of the world are using this than not. You have all the nonwestern polulation still in touch with their ancient moon forecasting culture; about 80-90% of the world's population.

Kenring

waterways wrote: »

Good morning Ken,

sorry, I cannot find any "free" forecast for Ireland 2011 on your website. Any hint? You are free to send me a PM.

Some of your past long range forecasts were right, some totally wrong. What is your personal qoute?

It seems to me that you predict always a range, including your original thoughts and the opposite together. Just to be on the safe side? You are a former math teacher, so you should get my point, beyond communication problems.

You avoid "to be caught". This is your right as a commercial seller. But you are also avoiding a real discussion of your past predictions and the (YOUR) data.

IMHO you are trying to sell your products but not to get any appreciation here by boardies which are really interested in serious forecasts and to improve them and to develop the models.

You didn't look very far, did you! On my website look for free articles with titles like
Winter Outlook for Ireland
Ireland rest of 2010 and 2011

The word "Ireland" might give you a clue

Look, I am not 100%, I never said I would be. This is weather, the most inexact science there is. Why concentrate on the negative as a reason to throw a baby out with the bathwater? Do they close the hospitals when a doctor makes a mis-diagnosis? If a brand of toothpaste doesn't clean your teeth just try another brand. It's not a big deal. If I get a day wrong, no family has been driven from their home, no one has been wounded or maimed, and if the next three or four days are right then we are 80% ahead.

Kenring

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Right well I think the forecast analysis has been up long enough and anybody who needed to see it has.

Ken, next time you get it wrong, dont lie about it, why would you? All forecasters get it wrong at some stage, we wont mind, as long as you admit to getting that forecast wrong.

Thetonynator has shown that I didn't get it wrong. Do you also claim he is mistaken? Even in the face of evidence to the contrary you refuse to accept that unseasonal cold occurred at the end of May 2007 for some counties?
Are you a real scientist? What is this "we"? You speak for the whole forum now? I was not aware - please point me to where it says that.

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

Not quite true, we would still have seasons, the different positioning and strength of the moon would change the weather, but yes, as you say it is quite clearly not the only influence.

Correct me if i'm wrong but doesn't M.T. use the lunar influence in his longer range forecasting???

Yes it is strange. MT says it often enough, but no one challenges him on it. So it seems the lunar system isn't objectionable in any way to most posters here. Actually by endorsing MT they endorse his systems..
It's more the fact that I stick my neck out and sell a book every year about Ireland's weather to come and no one else here has written one, and that seems to be a reason for grumbling. There's nothing to stop others also writing books, but it's easier to try to dissuade potential punters from buying mine. The idea is, "if we can't do it, no one can. We set the rules, because we say we do - end of discussion"

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

Yes it is strange. MT says it often enough, but no one challenges him on it. So it seems the lunar system isn't objectionable in any way to most posters here. Actually by endorsing MT they endorse his systems..
It's more the fact that I stick my neck out and sell a book every year about Ireland's weather to come and no one else here has written one, and that seems to be a reason for grumbling. There's nothing to stop others also writing books, but it's easier to try to dissuade potential punters from buying mine. The idea is, "if we can't do it, no one can. We set the rules, because we say we do - end of discussion"

One of the main differences ken ( to me at least) is that MT doesn't seem to rely quite so heavily on the moon for his long range forecasts as you do. Perhaps this does have an effect on both of ye're forecasts accuracy?

waterways

Ken, I found them now. I didn't expect that you cast a weather horoscope for 2011 in September 2010.
Looking at the past months I guess a fifty-fifty chance that your predictions are right.
What else do you contribute to the weather forum here?

Kenring

waterways wrote: »

Ken, I found them now. I didn't expect that you cast a weather horoscope for 2011 in September 2010.
Looking at the past months I guess a fifty-fifty chance that your predictions are right.
What else do you contribute to the weather forum here?

Don't quite understand the question. What else do you contribute?

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

One of the main differences ken ( to me at least) is that MT doesn't seem to rely quite so heavily on the moon for his long range forecasts as you do. Perhaps this does have an effect on both of ye're forecasts accuracy?

I'm sure MT can speak for himself. I had the impression lunar was his main mechanism for determining events.

I dont really read your work or know much about you.I follow MT every morning here. Thats good enough for me.

But I do admire the way you keep taking the digs. Seems like everyone here has a problem with you, but you keep your end up. Cant be easy having to defend yourself all the time. I imagine most would have upped and left the boards LOL

So thumbs up for not running away.

Kenring

Jake1 wrote: »

I dont really read your work or know much about you.I follow MT every morning here. Thats good enough for me.

But I do admire the way you keep taking the digs. Seems like everyone here has a problem with you, but you keep your end up. Cant be easy having to defend yourself all the time. I imagine most would have upped and left the boards LOL

So thumbs up for not running away.

Thanks Jake. Well, I'm about the only one here with a proper name, and I'm attacked by nameless nom de plumes. It's kind of one-sided, because I don't know who I'm talking to, but it appears to be the only way meteorologists can function in a debate. For some reason science has left the building, because science is supposed to welcome and discuss new ideas and alternative approaches. So no, it's not easy, but NZers aren't afraid of the odd ruck.

CardinalJ

In fairness if someones long range forecasting is right 50% of the time they're not doing too badly. Even MT uses phrases like "greater that 60% chance of" in his forecasts. Every year the best forecasting agencies get calls horribly wrong on short range forecasting let alone long range.

Its called a weather 'forecast' for the exact reason that its impossible to get correct all the time. If you've got a grudge or dislike for someone don't buy their products.

Seems to be a ridiculous amount of pent up aggression in here, sort it out with a rain-dance off or something. :rolleyes:

darkman2

Gentlemen, gentlemen.....can you not all just get along? Anyone can try to predict the weather using whatever methodology they see fit. If they have a degree in biscuit studies they can give it a go. I might not agree with it, I might think it's very creative, I might think it is very daft but I don't think anyone has the right (and it's in the charter rules AFAIK) to attack Ken Ring or any other poster on here in such a manner as I percieve to be the case here. I think some of you need to grow up a bit. This forum is supposed to be for friendly, informative, interesting threads relating to the weather and forcasting. Not page after page of antagonising and condescending rubbish as in this thread. FWIW I don't have much time for Ken Ring's methodology personally but I fully respect his right to put his case and make his forcasts and sell as many books as he likes. I respect the fact that he actually believes in what he is trying to do and is trying to prove his ideas. More then can be said for alot of the overly critical posters in this thread which interestingly enough some, if not most, I don't think I have ever seen post here before. Alot of the stuff in here is very unfair.

waterways

Kenring wrote: »

Don't quite understand the question. What else do you contribute?

What I contribute? Well, I'm not a weather forecaster and my potentials for serious inputs here are low and I'm not a native speaker. Sometimes I cannot do more than to thank other contributers for their great postings. You have never thanked anybody here, referring to this my humble contribution is greater than yours. I'm more a reader and learner. And I appreciate all the qualified contributions here. Now I know a bit more about weather and climate and I learn every day when reading here, for example about the influence of NAO and AO.
You say you are qualified, especially in Astrometeorology and I just ask you what you intend to contribute here? What can I learn from you here despite how to promote commercial products?

Redsunset

Ok Beasterly you have repeatedly made your point and i hope your happy now.Thats still not gonna stop people purchasing out of curiosity.Well afterall they say curiosity killed the cat.:D

However people have their own free will and have always bought into fortune tellers and the like and they make a very good business.

I have not read any of Ken's material on the site and that is simply my choice.

Chaz

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Well we know the ME forecasters are qualified in their feild. But I asked about you.

I ask about you qualifications because ive dragged up an interesting bit of consumer legislation. Under the Sale of goods and services act 1980 the supplier of the service(you) is required to:

Any breech of these legislation while actively selling a service in Ireland(includes online) is 100% illegal.

Skill is one thing - how do you prove / disprove skill? The qualification is an example and not a pre req.

CardinalJ

BEASTERLY wrote: »

My objection is that he charges for an outrageously inaccurate forecast , and blatingly lies about his performance to try and boost his business. TBH, this has all the trademarks of a classic scam, and i think the mods should think long and hard about having that going on here!

Yea, but if I don't like a certain beer I just don't buy it. I don't go on a mission to out it for what it is.

Sorry if I sound like I'm taking sides, Im really not, I just dont understand why you're so worked up. I suppose for someone who works using charts and models, Ken Rings style of forcasting would be looked down on. But at the end of the day who cares.

I accept that there's a lot of people on this forum who use charts and models to predict the weather, as well as a pinch of less scientific methods, and there are others who use almost the opposite, but to each their own.

CardinalJ

BEASTERLY wrote: »

It is an illeagal fraudelent SCAM! Not just a poor product, thats why am so worked up!

Ken has to be stopped promoting a lieing onhere or else Boards.ie is at risk of being accused of facilitating fraudsters and aiding this outrageous scam.

I dont think you can class it as a scam.

If I sign up for a service that is predicting, and its right 50% of the time I can't demand half my money back.

Your signing up for a prediction service, not a results based service. Its essentially a gamble, you cant ask for your money back at the bookies if you dont win!