IMRA season 2011

jeffontour

Lovely route for a relaxed recce. Will make for some intense racing. Donothoponpop and positivnegativ showing the way on the descent. Hopefully we get the weather next week. Sloggerjogger running despite injury, tut tut, you know better but you delivered my Irish camps tee which I'd forgotten about, cheers!

T runner

Lovely morning for a run. An excellent but tough route and a worthy addition to the calendar, well done D'Pop and his sick advisor PN! As PN said the first 2k will make or break your race: good to go down and put the finger in the wound so to speak.
My plan to do a second lap was received with chuckles, i banished that foolish thought early enough in the lap.
Another aspect of this route is the breathtaking views. Superb views of the Wicklow mountains and over to the Irish sea.
If youre thinking about progressing to Championship races this is one to try. Dont get me wrong this is a very doable race, but has an extra challenge or two (and more fun) than a standard winter league/Leinster League type race.
Well worth doing.

T runner

I was looking through some of my results and found that for some races my Base points seemed relatively low or relatively high.

For instance i noticed that in a particular race where i got a close second within 12 seconds of the winner, i got lower base points than in a race where i was 5th fully 2 mins adrift of the winner. The two winners were of similar calibre and i was definately a lot stronger in the 2nd place race.

I thought there may have been an error but i examined more results and may have found a trend:

The base points compare your score against the average of the middle half of the field, i believe.

This means that you are comparing yourself against the average of the field.

Looking at the results of consistant performers at the elite end, they seem to score higher in shorter races. Im guessing that this is because speed/endurance ratio is more developed in elite runners than in the average of the field. That means that as the race gets longer and speed is less of a factor, the advantage to the elite runner recedes. Everyone has the endurance to complete the race and speed is less of an issue. (edit: to be precise the ratio of: the elite runners average speed over shorter races/the avergae runners speed over shorter races is greater than the ratio of: the elite runners average speed over medium-longer races/the avergae runners speed over medium-longer races)

I am further guessing that at the elite end runners will be better technical descenders than the average and thus in short technical courses the advantage is more pronounced.

Looking at PNs stats, for example, he seems to have scored consistently very highly in these type of races.
Christmas flash being an obvious example.

An example of races where it is harder for fast runners to make hay might be Powerscourt Up.

My two examples were Tibradden basecamp 2nd palce and Sugarbowl 5th place.

I was a lot fitter in the former, ran more agressively and yet i scored higher in teh sugarbowl.

This was because the longer Tibradden course took the wind out of some of my sails speed wise, compared to the field and a good technical descent was rewarded by gaining me points against the average runner in the shorter Sugarbowl race.

One longer race where I noticed the trend buck was in a circuit of Glenmalure with very difficult navigational conditions. I shamelessly followed PN, who navigated brillaintly without losing more than 20 secs. Later, when down (and both safely off the mountain) , he tore off putting 4 minutes into me in 20 , nevertheless i had benefitted from his navigation, the rest of the field had not, and this showed in the base points.

What does this mean?

Base points do exactly what they say on the tin: they assess your performance against a particular field on a particular course on a particular day. They do not assess your performance for comparison with another race, with one exception. If you average around the 100 base points mark.

In the % of leader system, it meant that those at the lower in the results may have been suffering in silence, doing well against the same winners in medium lenght non technical races, but getting their % hammered in short technical routes.

To make a comparison between races there would have to be a correction to the base results per race: Perhaps based on an absolute average points deviation (from 100 base) for all runners in all races for the corresponding league the previous year.
If the average points deviation of a particular race deviated from the average of teh previous years league, then an adjustment would be made.

I think base points are worth keeping, and % points are worth keeping, if the base points could be corrected for personal performance comparison purposes taht stat would also be would be good.

That would mean youd have 3 references:

1) How you did against the field: Base points
2) How you did against teh race winner: % of winner
3) How you did against your other performances in that league: adjusted base points

(Race points and enduro points simply arent accurate)

Enduro

Nice analysis. I was observing some of those trends myself from the small sample of the winter league so far. I don't agree with some of your underlying assumptions and conclusions though.

The first assumption I disagree with is that Elite runners are consistant. That's far from the case. You also seem to be assuming that someone who is very good at shorter distances should maintain their relative performance over the rest of the field at longer distances. I don't think this should necessarily be the case at all.

I think that what does tend to happen is that shorter races are closer races at the front of the field, and as a result the leaders push themselves harder over the course of the entire race. In the longer races there is much higher tendancy for bigger gaps to open up over longer stretches of the race. This can often result in runners cruising a lot more.

Either way, I reckon (without checking) that the percentages would show the same narrowing effect, as they are both proportional scores.

I'd definitely be interested in discussing more about your idea of how to weight for anomolies in the system (adjusted BPs). The danger areas is that any system could be thrown off by one or two good runners showing up on a particular race, and their performance skewing everyone elses scores (Or the opposite... if the top end of the field had no "elites"). If this kind of thing could be accounted for without upsetting everyone else's scores that would be good.

By the way, Race points have been tweaked since your previous post on the subject (as a direct result). There is no reason why they can't be tweaked more to get to the best possible use. There is nothing fundamentally inacurate about them... they're doing broadly what they're designed to do (which is reward participation in longer/harder races propotionally to race difficulty). What makes you think they're inaccurate, and what do you think would make them more accurate? (genuine questions... not being defensive... just trying to get ideas on how to improve the system)

PositiveNegativ

Apart from a bit of curiosity for the stats minded I can't see the benefit in trying to compare hill races and runners over any period of time or distance. Run the same race a week apart with the same group of runners and you'll have so many varibles in play comparison would be, well pointless.

Maybe I'm just missing my nice percentage. But then when percentage's first appeared I didn't fancy them much either.

ThisRegard

For those who done the recces recently, what are the underfoot conditions like, wet, grassy and muddy, traily or a bit of everything ?

PositiveNegativ

Everything above, plus some hard trail, exposed rock and that particular Coillte mix of post-felling mud and brashing.

donothoponpop

PositiveNegativ wrote: »

Everything above, plus some hard trail, exposed rock and that particular Coillte mix of post-felling mud and brashing.

Don't forget the pools- although the upper highland Wicklow basking shark is largely dormant in winter.

T runner

donothoponpop wrote: »

Don't forget the pools- although the upper highland Wiklow basking shark is largely dormant in winter.

Aparently he eats plant life from the bottom of the pool in Winter, so swimming rather than diving might be adviseable.

Nem_e

How deep are the Pools anyway, calf, knee or does jim and twins need a snorkle?

ocnoc

PositiveNegativ wrote: »

Apart from a bit of curiosity for the stats minded I can't see the benefit in trying to compare hill races and runners over any period of time or distance. Run the same race a week apart with the same group of runners and you'll have so many varibles in play comparison would be, well pointless.

I like the binary form of analysis. 1 or 0. You either win or you didn't win. If its the latter, train harder and win next time :P

nerraw1111

Regarding the profile of the course.

There are two sets of figures at the bottom of the profile chart which refer to the distance. Which is the correct number for distance? One is the squares or?

Be handy to know when to put the boot down how long to the top.

T runner

nerraw1111 wrote: »

Regarding the profile of the course.

There are two sets of figures at the bottom of the profile chart which refer to the distance. Which is the correct number for distance? One is the squares or?

Be handy to know when to put the boot down how long to the top.

Only one figure as far as i can see: 9k.
The figures to the right refer to gradient and elevation. The high squiggly bit for grade on the first main climb is pertinent!

donothoponpop

nerraw1111 wrote: »

Regarding the profile of the course.

There are two sets of figures at the bottom of the profile chart which refer to the distance. Which is the correct number for distance? One is the squares or?

Be handy to know when to put the boot down how long to the top.

Course is 9k. The black figures at the bottom seem accurate (I didn't source that elevation, so can't tell you about the other figures.

(Super) Trooper wrote: »

How deep are the Pools anyway, calf, knee or does jim and twins need a snorkle?

About knee deep. They block the path in a couple of places, but a route by the trees will be marked. Skirt or straight through, your choice.


[IMG]https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/_oEcvTzEYVmA/TNqpJvMy-kI/AAAAAAAAAJ8/AM2tdIlvIbU/s640/Icy Ridge.JPG" height="480" width="640"[/IMG]

ThisRegard

If you look along the bottom there's 2, there's the range that has 2 decimal points starting at 0.00 going to 8.00, with the farmost right being presumably 9.

Then above those there's 1-10 in little diamonds but also ending in 10, one scale is slightly different to the other.

donothoponpop

ThisRegard wrote: »

If you look along the bottom there's 2, there's the range that has 2 decimal points starting at 0.00 going to 8.00, with the farmost right being presumably 9.

Then above those there's 1-10 in little diamonds but also ending in 10, one scale is slightly different to the other.

Diamonds- possibly (km) lap points from a garmin? Watch would have been started roughly 700m previous to the start point shown. Although I wouldn't place too much emphasis on distance- elevation and how you handle terrain will be a better arbiter of how this race goes. Embracing gravity will be a big help.:)

thepassanger

this morning i did a recce of the wicklow way trial/ultra route, in reverse i think, from ballinastoe to johnny foxes pub. i felt a bit overwhelmed at the beginning. with the howling wind on my back most of the way the time just flew by and i had a great day. does anyone plan to do another recce of this route before march? if so could i tag along? 2:16:08hrs, 26km. i am well chuffed :pac: , and looking forward to annagh hill!

Krusty_Clown

thepassanger wrote: »

this morning i did a recce of the wicklow way trial/ultra route, in reverse i think, from ballinastoe to johnny foxes pub. i felt a bit overwhelmed at the beginning. with the howling wind on my back most of the way the time just flew by and i had a great day. does anyone plan to do another recce of this route before march? if so could i tag along? 2:16:08hrs, 26km. i am well chuffed :pac: , and looking forward to annagh hill!

At least you had the wind at your back. It would have been pretty horrendous travelling in the other direction! I had been considering a long run from work to home (2o miles) tomorrow evening, but into 55mph head-winds all the way, I'm no longer certain that it's the way to go.

Definitely up for a recce over the next 6-8 weeks, possibly in the opposite direction (JFs to the turnabout point).

GoHardOrGoHome

thepassanger wrote: »

this morning i did a recce of the wicklow way trial/ultra route, in reverse i think, from ballinastoe to johnny foxes pub. i felt a bit overwhelmed at the beginning. with the howling wind on my back most of the way the time just flew by and i had a great day. does anyone plan to do another recce of this route before march? if so could i tag along? 2:16:08hrs, 26km. i am well chuffed :pac: , and looking forward to annagh hill!

You're in luck! I believe the plan for Raighne and his disciples (of which I am one) is to do quite a few recces on different parts of the trail route so that we are ultra familiar with the route (see what I did there ). I'll be doing the 26k Trail this year not the 51K Ultra. I reckon we'll be doing the full distance several times before the race. Ballinastoe to Johnny Fox's is the Trail direction. Johnny-Fox's-->Ballinastoe-->Johnny-Fox's is the Ultra route.

2:16:08 would have you beat Damian Kelly, Suzanne Kenny and Mike Long, Dan Morrogh and Kevin O'Riordan, all of whom I was battling last season. Think of what you could do in a race situation! Only six minutes behind Des Kennedy and Zoran Skrba.

Can we convince you to switch your allegiance from GMIT to Boards? You won't get a GMIT team out anytime soon. (he said, instantly regretting the fact that this would push your correspondent further down the Boards scoring list)

GoHardOrGoHome

donothoponpop wrote: »

About knee deep. They block the path in a couple of places, but a route by the trees will be marked. Skirt or straight through, your choice.


[IMG]https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/_oEcvTzEYVmA/TNqpJvMy-kI/AAAAAAAAAJ8/AM2tdIlvIbU/s640/Icy Ridge.JPG" height="480" width="640"[/IMG]

Decided to throw caution to the wind and do this race!

Has to be straight through the pools! Where do they occur on the course? i.e. will we have wet feet from the start?!

Mac Cormaic

thepassanger wrote: »

this morning i did a recce of the wicklow way trial/ultra route, in reverse i think, from ballinastoe to johnny foxes pub. i felt a bit overwhelmed at the beginning. with the howling wind on my back most of the way the time just flew by and i had a great day. does anyone plan to do another recce of this route before march? if so could i tag along? 2:16:08hrs, 26km. i am well chuffed :pac: , and looking forward to annagh hill!

I'd be interested in doing part of the route at the end of the month. I'm hoping to do the ultra so knowing the route would be a big benefit.

donothoponpop

GoHardOrGoHome wrote: »

Decided to throw caution to the wind and do this race!

Has to be straight through the pools! Where do they occur on the course? i.e. will we have wet feet from the start?!

The initial climb can be a bit damp in places, but I've still arrived at the summit with dry(ish) socks. From there, its mucky in places around the back forest, then a hard trail uphill to bring you to the summit again. This part traverses the pools with about 2k to go, so any wet shoes will be carried downhill to the end, without much bother.

thepassanger

GoHardOrGoHome wrote: »

Can we convince you to switch your allegiance from GMIT to Boards?

how do you know i run for GMIT? and, i possibly could switch, i no longer study in GMIT castlebar so i suppose i wouldn't be part of their 'team'. i like your world play and puns... great humour :rolleyes:
i think i read about joining the boards team recenlty, i shall try to find the topic again....
ah, found it. lucky me its the first post in this imra topic!

thepassanger

Mac Cormaic wrote: »

I'd be interested in doing part of the route at the end of the month. I'm hoping to do the ultra so knowing the route would be a big benefit.

great, do you know what part of the route you are hoping to do at end of the month?

donothoponpop

Today was a real rollercoaster. Met up with mymojo, GoHard, and PosNeg, to give the course a final run-through. I've put a hell of a lot of work into seeing this race is well-received and runs smoothly, so was feeling pleased that all that could be done had been done. Great run around, fast downhill, all is well with the world.

However, I had been told only last night that a 4x4 club sometimes uses Annagh on the weekend, maybe I should look them up and give them a courtesy call? Emailed them, and was told they have a permit from Coillte to offroad on Annagh, and they had an event scheduled for this Sun, clashing with ours. Panicking, I had visions of truncated races on nearby hills, but a phone call to one of their organizers led to a happy outcome. Leinster 4x4 agreed to move their event to a different mountain, and were very generous in doing so. We constantly hear stories of 4x4 offroaders tearing up footpaths and trails, well here's a bunch of offroad enthusiasts who pay Coillte for permits to use certain mountains, and do it the right way. Not only that, they were willing to move their event at very short notice to accommodate our footrace on Annagh, displaying immense generosity in doing so.

Next time you're running the hills, and see 4x4 tracks tearing up some remote upland, remember that there are offroaders out there who also care about sharing the mountains, so that we can all enjoy them to their full potential. Kudos to Leinster 4x4 for their help. Now lets tear down some of those trails on Sunday.

thepassanger

hi there,
with heavy rain forecast for tomorrow and strong winds on sunday could/should we bring windsurfing gear to get across the aforementioned knee deep puddles? as they might become shoulder deep for some !

@ donothoponpop, good work on dissipating the leinster 4*4 club. that could have been a disaster. it would take hours of work to go around all the club forums/phonecalls to see which club is using where. maybe there could be a new volunteer position on imra for someone to do this not bloody likely!

Mac Cormaic

thepassanger wrote: »

great, do you know what part of the route you are hoping to do at end of the month?

Any part of it would suit me. I just want to get in two long mountain runs before the event.

ThisRegard

thepassanger wrote: »

hi there,
with heavy rain forecast for tomorrow and strong winds on sunday could/should we bring windsurfing gear to get across the aforementioned knee deep puddles? as they might become shoulder deep for some !

No need, I'm sure the Leinster 4x4 lads can give us short asses a hand where needed.

GoHardOrGoHome

Here are the Satnav coordinates for The Gap pub near the start of the Annagh Hill race.

52.76305
6.35963

I think the easiest way (if you're in the Dublin area) is to head to Gorey on the N11.

thepassanger

Mac Cormaic wrote: »

Any part of it would suit me. I just want to get in two long mountain runs before the event.

so how does a weekday after trooperstown sound? that would be either 23,24,25 of february for me. possible start at johnny foxes and do an out and back run? not the whole way out though! :eek: