Cold Spell Forecasts and Synoptic Forecast Discussion - 26/11/1020 onwards

thetonynator

WolfeIRE wrote: »

yep. GEFS showing a breakdown on friday with heavy snow for the country as a front pushes up against the cold air. No indication yet if this will transpire. Having said that, and MT alluded to this earlier, temperatures will remain on the colder than average side of things for some time to come

My ideal situation: Front comes from south west against cold air, bringing heavy snow, get to kilkenny, sticks around for a while, and then gets sick of us and fecks off back to the south west leaving us with lots of snow and further freezing temps!!!

maquiladora

Tomorrow morning/afternoon looks good again for the southeast on the 12Z UKMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U18-594.GIF?27-17

HyperSkypeWiper

Xxhaylsxx wrote: »

How are the roads around navan and meath in general does anyone know?

the main, primary roots are fine, but once you get off them, the roads turn to ice-rinks. Literally couldn't stand up earlier on the road outside my house

Supercell

maquiladora wrote: »

Tomorrow morning/afternoon looks good again for the southeast on the 12Z UKMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U18-594.GIF?27-17

Looks like snowmaggedon for the SE !

WolfeIRE

nacho libre wrote: »

yes pressure will still be staying high in the atlantic. so what we could see is topplers. what we don't want to see anytime soon is the polar vortex renewed. it's game over if that happens.

looking more closely at the end of the week

Tentative signs that the severe cold may ease by Friday of next week as an Atlantic system attempts to sweep northeast across Ireland. In such an event, precipitation would start off as snow before turning back to sleet and eventually rain. However, the medium to long range weather models suggest that any breakdown will be short-lived and that temperatures will remain well below average for the time of year.

The most likely scenario is that the present E-NE patter will be replaced by a N-NW flow by next weekend. A crucial factor in determining if the cold spell is to continue will be the positioning and scale of high pressure systems to our NW, N and/or NE. A blocking high over Greenland looks like remaining rooted there but the slight eastward tracking of highs over Scandinavia and southern Russia could allow milder Atlantic systems to track towards and perhaps over Ireland, therefore delivering a return to 'normal' conditions. Either way, the prospect of an Atlantic system meeting this cold pool of air will bring with it significant potential for widespread, heavy snow in Ireland. More on this as the models roll out.

Looking at the weather prospects 6-7 days out is referred to by weather enthusiasts as FI (Fantasy Island) territory so any model presentations for this period should be treated with a grain a salt (and grit).

Xxhaylsxx

HyperSkypeWiper wrote: »

the main, primary roots are fine, but once you get off them, the roads turn to ice-rinks. Literally couldn't stand up earlier on the road outside my house

Hmmmm looks like im better off not venturing out so. Thanks

Harps

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Looking at the weather prospects 6-7 days out is referred to by weather enthusiasts as FI (Fantasy Island) territory so any model presentations for this period should be treated with a grain a salt (and grit).

Always wondered what that stood for, assumed it to be some technical term :pac:

munsterlegend

Met eireann don't seem to think so? But then they never predicted waterford getting such a hammering either.

darkman2

Snow streamer forming in the Irish Sea. Might miss Dublin but could hit South Dublin, Wicklow and Wexford.


http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

inabina

darkman2 wrote: »

Snow streamer forming in the Irish Sea. Might miss Dublin but could hit South Dublin, Wicklow and Wexford.


http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

ye that streamer is heading like a missile for south dublin. south dublin do well on the streamers:D

roryc1

inabina wrote: »

ye that streamer is heading like a missile for south dublin. south dublin do well on the streamers:D

I hope you are right, but don't count your chickens just yet, that wind is more north than north east

inabina

anyone like to call where that streamer will land...wind experts?

roryc1

claire2010 wrote: »

whats a snow streamer?

Ghey snow





Gets coat.....

carlmwan

darkman2 wrote: »

Snow streamer forming in the Irish Sea. Might miss Dublin but could hit South Dublin, Wicklow and Wexford.


http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Hope not:o meath missed most of the snow last night dont want a repeat of it

Deep Easterly

Another healthy looking batch of showers heading down into Connacht at the moment:



and off the east coast too. Nacho should be seeing something soon. Sky is certainly darkening here to the NE (clouds not dusk!!!)

snaps

Sky is so black here, but nothing falling

inabina

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Another healthy looking batch of showers heading down into Connacht at the moment:



and off the east coast too. Nacho should be seeing something soon. Sky is certainly darkening here to the NE (clouds not dusk!!!)

whats your call on where that streamer east of swords will make landfall?

darkman2

inabina wrote: »

whats your call on where that streamer east of swords will make landfall?

As mentioned the wind is more North rather then East so probrably missing North Dublin anyway. Should clip Wicklow though. It's hard to know. Looks like there is a bit of a convergence zone with the winds Northwesterly on land but more Northeasterly out to sea. Very tricky to know really.

Kippure

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=69248576#post69248576

Sally gap passable in 4WD.

hotwhiskey

One to keep a eye on is the Low forming in the North Sea just of Newcastle. The BBC mentioned it this morning parts of northern England and Southern Scotland are in the line of fire and its predicted track is into N Ireland maybe the north midlands too.

carlmwan

darkman2 wrote: »

As mentioned the wind is more North rather then East so probrably missing North Dublin anyway. Should clip Wicklow though. It's hard to know. Looks like there is a bit of a convergence zone with the winds Northwesterly on land but more Northeasterly out to sea. Very tricky to know really.

Do you think the winds will be switching to east any time soon

Big Daddy Cool

just had a light snow shower in north meath, more then what met eireann predicted so gives hope for more later

thetonynator

If the wind is directly east we might get some showers here later in the night . . .

WolfeIRE

more snow on its way to you I would say Deep.

Its tracking due south at present. HIRLAM has again been spot on

speaking of which Kerry, Cork and Waterford are in for some snow fun tomorrow afternoon and early evening.

El Horseboxo

carlmwan wrote: »

Do you think the winds will be switching to east any time soon

Just enough to give Dublin a pasting. Meath will thankfully be spared. So don't worry.

inabina

darkman2 wrote: »

As mentioned the wind is more North rather then East so probrably missing North Dublin anyway. Should clip Wicklow though. It's hard to know. Looks like there is a bit of a convergence zone with the winds Northwesterly on land but more Northeasterly out to sea. Very tricky to know really.

mmmm that streamer seems to be running more north to south now. looks like it will miss dublin anyway. the streamers off wexford didnt make landfall there with the wind more northerly than northeasterly....dammit! but stuff forming all the time out in the sea.

maquiladora

National Forecast



27 November 2010 16:14

Today

Tonight will be bitterly cold, with widespread severe frost and icy stretches on untreated roads. There will be further wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow, most likely in northern, western and eastern coastal areas, giving additional accumulations and with a risk of thunder. Isolated wintry showers could occur in inland areas also. As winds fall light, some freezing fog will form. Minimum temperatures 0 to minus 7 Celsius.


Tomorrow

Tomorrow, Sunday, will again be bitterly cold, with frost, ice and freezing fog clearing only slowly and lingering on in some sheltered areas throughout the day. Many areas will be dry, with sunny spells, but showers of hail, sleet and snow will continue, some possibly thundery, the showers mainly in Ulster, north Connaught and in eastern coastal areas. Highest temperatures 1 to 4 degrees Celsius. Winds mostly light to moderate, north to northeast, veering northeasterly.

200motels

munsterlegend wrote: »

Met eireann don't seem to think so? But then they never predicted waterford getting such a hammering either.

And what a hammering we got. It's the first time in my life time that we got snow in November as far as I can remember.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Another healthy looking batch of showers heading down into Connacht at the moment:



and off the east coast too. Nacho should be seeing something soon. Sky is certainly darkening here to the NE (clouds not dusk!!!)

yes paddy1. it's snowing heavily here now and should be with you very shortly. so it seems you have been well and truly taught a lesson for turning your back on snow:)

roryc1

hotwhiskey wrote: »

One to keep a eye on is the Low forming in the North Sea just of Newcastle. The BBC mentioned it this morning parts of northern England and Southern Scotland are in the line of fire and its predicted track is into N Ireland maybe the north midlands too.

well spotted, should help push showers on the east coast too