Cold Spell Forecasts and Synoptic Forecast Discussion - 26/11/1020 onwards

Pangea

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

There is really no reliable sign of a warmup at all,

M.T. for President!!

Figuramatyi

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Sorry I doubted your generosity Nacho, heavy snow now. Nice fresh covering already.

Yesterday we didn't get much of what you did, I hope today I'll be more spectacular It should be here in a few minutes!

delw

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The low over the northeast coast of England is drifting west under an upper low and should begin to track more WSW after midnight, but I expect this feature to lose definition over England before trying to redevelop well after midnight over the Irish Sea. This means that any snow before late morning in eastern counties would have to come from unrelated streamers developing over the Irish Sea. This may happen but with such a slack wind gradient and cold temperatures inland due to earlier snow cover, meso-scale winds around Dublin are likely to remain W-NW with the streamers being forced more south towards Wicklow (again). However some other weak snow flurries could develop further north and move inland anywhere along the east coast.

Would expect then a few areas of snow to develop later tonight but more likely to be in Wicklow (as well as much further west). Inland temperatures could fall as low as -8 to -10 C over snow cover. By late morning and through mid-day Sunday, areas of snow may develop in response to the upper low drifting west across Ireland. With any luck (if you're a snow lover and if not, sorry, wrong thread) some of this snow may become moderately heavy in places -- there would be potential for 5-8 cms in some areas.

Looking further ahead, nothing but east winds and at times a bit of a southeast component that may get even places like Cork into the action, but favouring Meath-Dublin-Wicklow region in general. There is really no reliable sign of a warmup at all, the models are behaving as they normally do in a prolonged cold spell. There is such a deep supply of cold air in the European arctic and in central Siberia that as long as the Atlantic sector does not undergo a total reversal of form, I believe the pattern will remain cold with just the odd near-normal respite from a weak system dropping south and turning the winds more NW'ly.

cheers MT,so does that mean the chances of snow for dublin have decreased for tonight

greysides

lucy2010 wrote: »

BB,whats still to come tonight? Ive to get to Oulart & back tomorrow.. whats the chances looking like ?

I was the other side of Gorey today (at a guess, the oppsite side of Croghan to BB). The snow is deep enough and didn't really thaw at all. Traffic has compacted and smoothened it. The surface layer of undisturbed snow was already getting crispy as the sun went down so the frost has started on smooth compacted snow.....

I have cancelled a trip to Co Down tomorrow. I will staying put tomorrow.........and that's with a 4WD at my disposal.

We had 4 inches of snow just south of Gorey over night, there was 6" at Ballythomas National School.

Deep Easterly

Figuramatyi wrote: »

Yesterday we didn't get much of what you did, I hope today I'll be more spectacular It should be here in a few minutes!

Hopfully Fig, although it looks to be weakening rapidly on its journey south; however, Pangea is throwing another big snowball at us at the moment and hopefully he will put a bit of power behind it this time!!

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

irishdub14

M2 dewpoints risen to 0.6C....

Su Campu

Strange one - Shannon Airport at 1800 reported temp -0.5C, dewpoint HIGHER at -0.2C!!??

lucy2010

greysides wrote: »

I was the other side of Gorey today (at a guess, the oppsite side of Croghan to BB). The snow is deep enough and didn't really thaw at all. Traffic has compacted and smoothened it. The surface layer of undisturbed snow was already getting crispy as the sun went down so the frost has started on smooth compacted snow.....

I have cancelled a trip to Co Down tomorrow. I will staying put tomorrow.........and that's with a 4WD at my disposal.

We had 4 inches of snow just south of Gorey over night, there was 6" at Ballythomas National School.

I dont know that school but I have to go past ballycanew turn down for Kilmuckridge then head to the windmills - few too many backroads for my liking TBH

M.T. Cranium

Well, as Darkman2 was saying, the situation will be pretty much a nowcast, I was just saying the best chances are probably south of Dublin (should have included Wexford in that perhaps) but I would not rule out further snow overnight anywhere in eastern counties -- just feel that Wexford is most likely to get the heavier snow. There are many days of potential snow ahead for Dublin given the stronger easterly flow setting up after the weekend.

Figuramatyi

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Hopfully Fig, although it looks to be weakening rapidly on its journey south; however, Pangea is throwing another big snowball at us at the moment and hopefully he will put a bit of power behind it this time!!

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Yes, it's always the same story, they die out when they get here. But who knows, might struck lucky tonight.

Still nothing falling here

lucy2010

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Well, as Darkman2 was saying, the situation will be pretty much a nowcast, I was just saying the best chances are probably south of Dublin (should have included Wexford in that perhaps) but I would not rule out further snow overnight anywhere in eastern counties -- just feel that Wexford is most likely to get the heavier snow. There are many days of potential snow ahead for Dublin given the stronger easterly flow setting up after the weekend.

Thanks MT - loads of disruption.. Cant see them closing schools after last years fiasco -

We went up to carrickmines earlier to get new fisheys.. Sweet devine you should have seen the car parks... Plonkers in $x4's losing is - sheer glass..

JanuarySnowstor

Just to give a brief update for places along the South coast like Cork.
Tomorrow looks very good for us as winds go slightly South of East.
In fact history tells me a direct Easterly will also catch Cork full on.
As others have been saying it's a nowcast situation but most computer models show Cork getting some in the next 24hours!

Hooter23

Figuramatyi wrote: »

Yes, it's always the same story, they die out when they get here. But who knows, might struck lucky tonight.

Still nothing falling here

Very light snow now

premiercad

that is one nice looking rotation hitting Newcastle at the mo, hope the irish sea kick starts it again when it passes the UK :rolleyes:

cherryghost

God damn northerly showers have been their most intense in a while. PLEASE DON'T DIE BEFORE YOU REACH ME... AGAIN!

gally74

lovely snow here now come down quite happy.

galway!!!!!

inabina

premiercad wrote: »

that is one nice looking rotation hitting Newcastle at the mo, hope the irish sea kick starts it again when it passes the UK :rolleyes:

yep thats what we need. those streamers in irish sea now are not quite delivering for us at the mo. i must say i found MT's analysis of meso scale winds facinating. thanks MT!

Deep Easterly

Figuramatyi wrote: »

Yes, it's always the same story, they die out when they get here. But who knows, might struck lucky tonight.

Still nothing falling here

Snow should be hitting the north of the city shortly if not right now so you will no doubt see a few flakes in the next while.

Figuramatyi

Hooter23 wrote: »

Very light snow now

Confirmed, a few small flakes, intensity is 1/10 maybe... still, snow it is, and everything's frozen so all of them are sticking
Location: Wellpark

Hoping that this first one will raise humidity in the next one's way, so that won't die out so easy

Edit: moderate snowfall now, 4/10 intensity
HAPPY

Every single snowlake is sticking, never thought I'd live to see this in Galway
Traffic chaos tomorrow: check.

TheMilkyPirate

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Well, as Darkman2 was saying, the situation will be pretty much a nowcast, I was just saying the best chances are probably south of Dublin (should have included Wexford in that perhaps) but I would not rule out further snow overnight anywhere in eastern counties -- just feel that Wexford is most likely to get the heavier snow. There are many days of potential snow ahead for Dublin given the stronger easterly flow setting up after the weekend.

You've made my night tbh.

Cosmo Kramer

premiercad wrote: »

that is one nice looking rotation hitting Newcastle at the mo, hope the irish sea kick starts it again when it passes the UK :rolleyes:

Looks fantastic, doesn't it...we're bracing ourselves for a snowy night in central Scotland! Yesterdays two inches could do with some topping up...:D

premiercad

UK met

"Heavy snow in southern and central Scotland, spreading west to Northern Ireland. Snow showers continuing along some coasts, especially in the east. Elsewhere, starting sunny, but isolated snow flurries later."

They UK met are suggesting the heavy snow just hitting scot/eng border now might cross the pond tommorrow! I think this is the best chance of some more general snow at the mo apart from the north west and east coast showers...

http://http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_radar.html

Su Campu

Met Éireann's Aviation chart for midnight shows two areas of distinct weather - the first covers the western half of the country from Derry-Limerick, and Co Kerry and west Cork - the other is the rest of the country.

For the first area they forecast occasional moderate showers of sleet, graupel and snow, with localised thunderstorms. For the other area it's isolated (occasional on the Irish Sea) light sleet and snow showers.

The 5pm TAFs give medium chances of snow (see areas in red for wind and weather).

PROB30 = slight chance
PROB40 = medium chance

Dublin
EIDW 271700Z 2718/2818 33008KT 9999 SCT020 PROB40 TEMPO 2722/2818 4000 -SHSN BKN008 BKN018CB BECMG 2720/2723 VRB03KT BECMG 2801/2804 03006KT

Shannon
EINN 271700Z 2718/2818 33005KT 9999 SCT020 SCT030 PROB30 TEMPO 2719/2802 3000 -SN BKN005 BKN018CB BECMG 2802/2805 02008KT

Cork
EICK 271700Z 2718/2818 36008KT 9999 SCT020 SCT025 BECMG 2720/2723 VRB03KT PROB30 TEMPO 2806/2812 3000 -SHSN BKN004 BKN017CB

Connaught Airport
EIKN 271700Z 2718/2818 30007KT 5000 BR BKN004 TEMPO 2718/2723 1200 -SHSN SHSN BKN002 BKN015CB TEMPO 2723/2809 0500 FG OVC001 BECMG 2808/2810 05007KT 9999 SCT020


For the Regional Airports, only Sligo has a forecast of moderate snow showers from 8-11pm tonight.

This freely available image from the Jersey Met Office will update automatically.

WolfeIRE

Pangea wrote: »

See RTE Said there was 4 inches in Killkenny yet one of our posters showed us 8 inches
Snow measurments are much more reliable on Boards.

Yes but boards measurement was estimated by a man

gally74

from looking at the charts were getting more in galway tonight than promised,

from will it rain today, plenty of showers coming in from the north,

it alos looks like the system developing over the uk, could spin in over north leinster and into the midlands.

Defcol

Can anyone tell me what directions those wind arrows in the midlands are going?

Su Campu

Defcol wrote: »

Can anyone tell me what directions those wind arrows in the midlands are going?

Ranging from northwesterly to westerly

Vizual Pics

Anyone notice the swirling off the north east coast of scotland also and appears to be feeding into the weather system that is feeding down from scotland towards northern ireland and the west of ireland? This is in addition to the current swirling ystem around newcastle, uk?

Su Campu

A comparison on how accurately the GFS and NAE forecast today's 12Z 850 temps from last night's ))Z runs vs actual figures from the soundings. Might be a good piece of info for the future.

Castor Bay 12Z
Actual: -7.9°C
GFS: -9.0°C (Bad fit)
NAE: -7.5°C (Best fit)

Albermarle 12Z
Actual: -9.5°C
GFS: -10.0°C (Good fit)
NAE:-10.0°C (Good fit)

Valentia 12Z
Actual: -7.3°C
GFS: -8.0°C (Slightly out)
NAE: -6.5°C (Slightly out)

derekon

Su Campu wrote: »

Ranging from northwesterly to westerly

Thanks Su, the direction of those arrows is very confusing.

Met Eireann should make them a lot more transparent