Why it is in YOUR OWN INTEREST not to strike or protest at this time (mid May 2010).

Drumpot

Dev . .

I applaud your stance, as I would usually be one to go against populist opinion . . In fact I deplore it as I would class it as the main reason our country is so screwed . . However, I would love to sit down and have a drink with you on this topic as I think we could debate this for hours, as there are specific flaws with your stance. No real change can happen if there is a smooth transition to a new government . .

You speak soley from an economists view (not sure if you are one), but how do people believe a conventional capitalist economist view of the current crisis will get us out of a crisis mainly caused by capitalist principles ? ie. . Keep your head down and the bond market blast might pass over our heads . .

As somebody who is self employed and actually doing quite well, from a financial point of view I would of course personally prefer a smoother transition from bubble, recession to just normality . . Working in the financial services industry I understand the potential ramifications of civil unrest . .

However, from a political point of view, while I agree with the main principle of your post, I feel I do not have the confidence in the electorate that you do. . I believe things should happen the way you suggest, but lets be honest, labour and FG are going to be the big winners in the next election and that doesnt guarantee the change this country really needs.

The problem I have with that isnt because I dont like the parties, but I believe it will mainly be because FF have fecked up so badly people will vote for the other parties in anger. . Seriously, how does anybody think this is going to be good for the country ? So voting for the opposite of what we have been voting for "solves the problems" of the country ?

I believe that the Irish People need to grow up as a nation . . Not striking/rioting is a step in the right direction, but I believe thinking that ticking a box every 5 years is basically doing the bare minimum to what your country requires.

Saying "I didnt vote for that shower" means nothing . . Nothing . . What did you do to try to encourage your principles when times were good ? Most people did nothing because in truth they didnt care while the going was good. I cant say I did much, all I did was vote like most people, but now I understand that accepting 2nd best (the other guys) is just not enough. . Im not advocating a vote for FF, Im advocating a vote for a better country based on sound principles. .

Do you really think that there will be a huge differance with the opposition ? Kenny with his "I will take a paycut" but a year later "I got the good PR, now I want to reverse my decision". . Gilemore with his "anything FF do is wrong" - Standing ovation by the sheep . .

Im not a party person, but I think people who rule out one party , not because they disagree with their principles, but because they are just angry at how sh*t things have gotten, are just asking for trouble . . It doesnt mean we cant change parties, but demand more of your politician.

The current opposition party know that they really just have to turn up at the poles (and not have ff beside their name) to get in. . What level of expectation do we have ("well, at least they arent ff). . Wow , we couldnt set the bar any lower . . Same old sh*t, just differant party . ..

DeVore

yoshytoshy wrote: »

Nice one Devore for that laymans briefing;).

I didn't get the impression people took the rioting seriously at the dail. But after reading the thread here ,it's something to take very serious.

Its all about perception. Your car doesnt roll backwards down the hill at 60 miles an hour at the start.... it rolls back very slowly, so slowly, one little push and it starts.

WW1 was triggered by the shooting of Arch Duke Ferdinand.
The economic crisis by a few bad housing loans in the south of america.

Butterfly effects feed into the "law of unintended consequences".


Ireland is not a Duck. Don't give them the weapons to convince investors that we are.

DeV.

ei.sdraob

on the subject of revolutions, every-time someone tries to stir up a revolution, i think of this passage...

Orwell wrote:

Throughout recorded time, and probably since the end of the Neolithic Age,
there have been three kinds of people in the world, the High, the Middle,
and the Low. They have been subdivided in many ways, they have borne
countless different names, and their relative numbers, as well as their
attitude towards one another, have varied from age to age: but the
essential structure of society has never altered. Even after enormous
upheavals and seemingly irrevocable changes, the same pattern has always
reasserted itself, just as a gyroscope will always return to equilibrium,
however far it is pushed one way or the other

The aims of these three groups are entirely irreconcilable. The aim of
the High is to remain where they are. The aim of the Middle is to change
places with the High. The aim of the Low, when they have an aim--for it
is an abiding characteristic of the Low that they are too much crushed
by drudgery to be more than intermittently conscious of anything outside
their daily lives--is to abolish all distinctions and create a society in
which all men shall be equal. Thus throughout history a struggle which is
the same in its main outlines recurs over and over again. For long periods
the High seem to be securely in power, but sooner or later there always
comes a moment when they lose either their belief in themselves or their
capacity to govern efficiently, or both. They are then overthrown by the
Middle, who enlist the Low on their side by pretending to them that they
are fighting for liberty and justice. As soon as they have reached their
objective, the Middle thrust the Low back into their old position of
servitude, and themselves become the High. Presently a new Middle group
splits off from one of the other groups, or from both of them, and the
struggle begins over again. Of the three groups, only the Low are never
even temporarily successful in achieving their aims. It would be an
exaggeration to say that throughout history there has been no progress of
a material kind. Even today, in a period of decline, the average human
being is physically better off than he was a few centuries ago. But no
advance in wealth, no softening of manners, no reform or revolution has
ever brought human equality a millimetre nearer. From the point of view of
the Low, no historic change has ever meant much more than a change in thename of their masters.

DeVore

ei.sdraob wrote: »

good post



if you are in the export sector then NONE of your customers are in the public sector...

the private sector can be subdivided into two
* exports to outside the economy
* services within the economy

dont forget the above @dev

Who will deliver their goods in and out of the country? How will they get the raw materials for to manufacture their exports? (from inside Ireland... which will be chaos).

No industry is an island when something like this hits. We stand or fall together. We take our unfair medicine, we bide our time and we remember.

DeV.

Zambia

I liked the explanation well put Dev.

However I'm with Drumpot the electorate will react with anger yet the only viable opposition I see is FG. We then face the prospect of them screwing up causing same anger and FF re-entering the dail on the back of a anyone but FG vote.

However I do agree a good riot/protest will fix none of this.

ei.sdraob

DeVore wrote: »

Who will deliver their goods in and out of the country? How will they get the raw materials for to manufacture their exports? (from inside Ireland... which will be chaos).

No industry is an island when something like this hits. We stand or fall together. We take our unfair medicine, we bide our time and we remember.

DeV.

I disagree with you there

no industry is an island but Ireland is an island
in a globalized world

the export sector is also split in two (indigenous and mnc's)

any sustained attack from the public/state servants on the export sector such as:
* closing airports (remember air traffic controllers)
* disrupting water supplies by council workers
* blockading roads by gardai and/or harassment of people
* cutting electricity supplies by esb


would ensure that most of these businesses once it reaches a point of the losses being too large
would simply leave the country

and my god that would be a real disaster, with no or little wealth generating industry the country would revert to potato farming in no time

you think the likes of Google, Microsoft, Intel, Ryanair would stick around if their profit margins are hit hard enough?


to summarize
the public service needs the export service much more than the export service needs the public service since exporting companies can simply leave to a more stable and friendly place (remember intel saying that out of 14 reasons for them to come to ireland only 1 remains),
thats where I agree with you that rocking the boat is counterproductive

i hope any militant unionists and sinn feiners are reading this thread

anymore

DeVore wrote: »

Its all about perception. Your car doesnt roll backwards down the hill at 60 miles an hour at the start.... it rolls back very slowly, so slowly, one little push and it starts.

WW1 was triggered by the shooting of Arch Duke Ferdinand.
The economic crisis by a few bad housing loans in the south of america.

Butterfly effects feed into the "law of unintended consequences".


Ireland is not a Duck. Don't give them the weapons to convince investors that we are.

DeV.

But doesnt the Law of Unintended consequences apply to your OP as well ?

digme

DeVore wrote: »

Screw the government, they are dead at the next election. I'm out for us now and I want to explain to you why our best option right now is to sit tight and ride this out.


But you need to understand what an "institutional speculator" is to understand. I'll do my best to keep this simple and amusing, but its important you DO understand.

<snip>
Right to the motherf*cking wall.



But we dont screw ourselves. Not now... cos we are the only ones looking after us now. Think clearly, think with your heads.



DeV.

Wipe your ass with Euro's as soon they will be worthless.

lifeinireland

DeVore wrote: »

Screw the government, they are dead at the next election. I'm out for us now and I want to explain to you why our best option right now is to sit tight and ride this out.


But you need to understand what an "institutional speculator" is to understand. I'll do my best to keep this simple and amusing, but its important you DO understand.

<snip>


But we dont screw ourselves. Not now... cos we are the only ones looking after us now. Think clearly, think with your heads.



DeV.

its that what i tell the bank when i cant pay my morgage,i cant pay cos ime bailing you out while you put up my interest rates.clearly you are not in a position like most of us.

DeVore

Zambia, we'll deal with that when the election comes around. I'm talking about the next 8-12 weeks.


Even just next week is critical.


Why do you think they pulled these riots now? Why now... nothing is being pushed through at the moment per se. No budget etc...


The people behind these riots want one thing. To see everything burn. They are extermists (the violent people, not the other 985 poor surprised fellow travellers).

They knew exactly what they were doing, they identified each other with black hoodies, they immediately ran up to the cops and started a row. They gloried in it.

watch it here... from about 4 mins in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2lEez-U4RY

These people are no more interested in your welfare then FF are. They want power and they want to tear everything down to get it.


Better to rule in hell.... etc.

DeV.

DeVore

lifeinireland wrote: »

its that what i tell the bank when i cant pay my morgage,i cant pay cos ime bailing you out while you put up my interest rates.clearly you are not in a position like most of us.

Will rioting make your position better or worse?


DeV.

lifeinireland

is that what i tell the bank when i cant pay my morgage,because ime paying more tax to bail them out while they put up interest rates to screw me again plus governments inderect tax like carbon petrol allready at 134,costing me 40 euro to travel to work.:mad:

DeVore

lifeinireland wrote: »

is that what i tell the bank when i cant pay my morgage,because ime paying more tax to bail them out while they put up interest rates to screw me again plus governments inderect tax like carbon petrol allready at 134,costing me 40 euro to travel to work.:mad:

And your suggested solution is??

Protest, hijacked by rioters, leading to financial instability??

Is that it?


DeV.

Sand

No, slightly incorrect. If it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck you can probably convince other people that its a duck EVEN IF YOU KNOW ITS NOT.

Greece probably isnt a good example for that, because its definitely a water dwelling winged creature with webbed feet that makes a suspicious quacking sound.

The Greek crisis developed as a more true representation of the fiscal and economic situation in Greece became clear and the markets reassesed their ability to meet their debts. The problem isnt that speculators made up misleading stories about the Greek situation, its that the truth of how deeply out of control their situation is was released. This isnt a conspiracy by the market deciding to knock off well run utopias one by one like a serial killer - its people looking at an economic blackhole and thinking...."I'll invest somewhere else"

Meanwhile the EU response is to awkwardly try to pretend everythings fine, come on in, the water is lovely...

The debt will become centralised to the EU governments, its true. But thats better then in the hands of the institutions who would quite simply follow market forces and demand payment etc.

Id wisper that actually - theres barely political will to bail out the Greeks by lending to them at easy rates: theres zero for simply giving them money. The taxpayers of the other EU states will be demanding payment.

The EU response doesnt address the underlying problem - the Greeks are spending more money than they have, their debt is rising year on year, and they arent making enough money to pay it back.

The Greek situation has suddenly turned into a political prestige issue - a macho showdown between the big boys of the EU and the big boys of the markets...incredible.

Nothing fundamentally has changed. There is still a credibility deficit between the politicians reality, and the economic reality. Everyone senses the incredulity of it - as Jason Byrne said "*WE* dont have any money. And the Greeks are asking us for money. And *WE'RE* giving them money?!?!?!" Its incredible. People dont believe it.

You're right, we dont want to draw the attention of speculators but the primary method for keeping our heads down will be putting together a credible policy for dealing with the states fiscal woes.

digme

DeVore wrote: »

And your suggested solution is??

Protest, hijacked by rioters, leading to financial instability??

Is that it?


DeV.

we are broke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
hellooooooooooooooo

DeVore

The Greek crisis developed as a more true representation of the fiscal and economic situation in Greece became clear and the markets reassesed their ability to meet their debts. The problem isnt that speculators made up misleading stories about the Greek situation, its that the truth of how deeply out of control their situation is was released. This isnt a conspiracy by the market deciding to knock off well run utopias one by one like a serial killer - its people looking at an economic blackhole and thinking...."I'll invest somewhere else"

No. Because thats not what they did during the currency speculations of the early 90s.


Oh no wait. Thats exactly what they did.



I used to write software for all the major banks Sand, I worked for a year in one major banks trading floor. I know these guys, I know what they are like and how they think.

The banks in Greece are speculating against the very bailout that is allowing them to speculate at all. Hows that for a thank you.

The only answer is to quell this firestorm before the wind grips it. If they smell blood, they will be in like a shot.


DeV.

lifeinireland

DeVore wrote: »

Will rioting make your position better or worse?


DeV.

will a change of government make it any better,i dont think so unless we have a new political party.

digme

DeVore wrote: »

No. Because thats not what they did during the currency speculations of the early 90s.


Oh no wait. Thats exactly what they did.



I used to write software for all the major banks Sand, I worked for a year in one major banks trading floor. I know these guys, I know what they are like and how they think.

The banks in Greece are speculating against the very bailout that is allowing them to speculate at all. Hows that for a thank you.

The only answer is to quell this firestorm before the wind grips it. If they smell blood, they will be in like a shot.


DeV.

The word Sociopath come to mind
Also the gov don't run this country.It's a corporatocracy.

DeVore

digme wrote: »

we are broke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
hellooooooooooooooo

America is broke. Argentina/Nigeria is in free fall. There is a difference.

There is no reason by the end of the year we couldnt have this relatively straightened out and be on the road to recovery. Dont buy the gloom any more then the spin.

DeV.

DeVore

lifeinireland wrote: »

will a change of government make it any better,i dont think so unless we have a new political party.

Thats for the election in a while... thats light years away and you know what, I agree with you. Completely.


But you dont change horses mid-apocalypse.

Dev.

digme

Are you having a laugh or what?
If i got away with it, i would hang every last one of them outside the dail.

ei.sdraob

Sand wrote: »

This isnt a conspiracy by the market deciding to knock off well run utopias one by one like a serial killer - its people looking at an economic blackhole and thinking...."I'll invest somewhere else"
.

well said

seems @Devore fallen for the EU spin of "speculator" wolfpacks

how does the fact that most of these "speculators" are EU (particularly French) banks that are shorting Greece, fit into the equation?

DeVore

digme wrote: »

The word Sociopath come to mind
Also the gov don't run this country.It's a corporatocracy.

Read the book "Liars Poker". Its about the life and times of the traders on Lehmann Brothers (usually simply called The Brothers on any floor in any trading room in the world).


The fact that they are gone hit me harder then Gerry Ryan's death. Thats how seismic that was to the industry. The Brothers, one of the if not THE most presitgious name on wall street, the company people worked in FOR NOTHING to get the experience on their CV, the ultimate kings of the game. Are gone. wow.


These guys would eat or sell their own children and parents for a buck. Gordon Gecko is a feckin socialist compared to them. One day I'll tell you all the stories from that time because its fncking galling.

DeV.

DeVore

ei.sdraob wrote: »

well said

seems @Devore fallen for the EU spin of "speculator" wolfpacks

how does the fact that most of these "speculators" are EU (particularly French) banks that are shorting Greece, fit into the equation?

:eek: Dude..... the GREEK banks are probably shorting the Greeks. Dont you get it, they dont care about the country their are in... THEY will make money and if it trashes a country to do it.... what does that matter. Some of the guys I met and knew, they'd do it for a bet.


DeV.

Drumpot

DeVore wrote: »

Zambia, we'll deal with that when the election comes around. I'm talking about the next 8-12 weeks.


Even just next week is critical.


Why do you think they pulled these riots now? Why now... nothing is being pushed through at the moment per se. No budget etc...


The people behind these riots want one thing. To see everything burn. They are extermists (the violent people, not the other 985 poor surprised fellow travellers).

They knew exactly what they were doing, they identified each other with black hoodies, they immediately ran up to the cops and started a row. They gloried in it.

watch it here... from about 4 mins in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2lEez-U4RY

These people are no more interested in your welfare then FF are. They want power and they want to tear everything down to get it.


Better to rule in hell.... etc.

DeV.

Are you suggesting that any strike in Ireland will be sabotaged by the "hoodies" ?

So we should not only live in fear of the bond markets, but the small minority of idiots in society aswell ?

Sand

No. Because thats not what they did during the currency speculations of the early 90s.


Oh no wait. Thats exactly what they did.

They bet that the UK and other European states wouldnt have the discipline to stick with the Germans high fiscal discipline. They were right. The political error was repeated, on a worse scale with the Euro, when Europeans without the fiscal discipline of the Germans again locked themselves into a fixed exchange with the Germans.

The markets are just reacting to what they see before them.

I used to write software for all the major banks Sand, I worked for a year in one major banks trading floor. I know these guys, I know what they are like and how they think.

The banks in Greece are speculating against the very bailout that is allowing them to speculate at all. Hows that for a thank you.

The only answer is to quell this firestorm before the wind grips it. If they smell blood, they will be in like a shot.

Theres always a certain measure of market sentiment and people reacting to others trades on the assumption the other guy knows something you dont. But thats not to say traders strategies are effectively spinning the wheel of fortune - theres usually a bit of research involved in trying to identify opportunities for profit between reality and spin.

And as for the banks, you cant expect gratitude from them anymore than you can expect to intimidate them. They are heartless souless monstrosities which exist for only one purpose - to make money. For the record, I would have happily left them to collapse and fail. But sovereign states decided to subsidise and bail out terribly run banks, so you get terrible banks and a lot of debt to pay off.

digme

They would put their children in a microwave for a dollar sounds about right.They run our country,not the "goverment"......

digme

DeVore wrote: »

Read the book "Liars Poker". Its about the life and times of the traders on Lehmann Brothers (usually simply called The Brothers on any floor in any trading room in the world).


The fact that they are gone hit me harder then Gerry Ryan's death. Thats how seismic that was to the industry. The Brothers, one of the if not THE most presitgious name on wall street, the company people worked in FOR NOTHING to get the experience on their CV, the ultimate kings of the game. Are gone. wow.


These guys would eat or sell their own children and parents for a buck. Gordon Gecko is a feckin socialist compared to them. One day I'll tell you all the stories from that time because its fncking galling.

DeV.

I'll add the book to me list for next week.

DeVore

digme wrote: »

Are you having a laugh or what?
If i got away with it, i would hang every last one of them outside the dail.

So would I.


But you wont get away with it and you'll take us all with you. So dont.


DeV.

ei.sdraob

DeVore wrote: »

:eek: Dude..... the GREEK banks are probably shorting the Greeks. Dont you get it, they dont care about the country their are in... THEY will make money and if it trashes a country to do it.... what does that matter. Some of the guys I met and knew, they'd do it for a bet.


DeV.

Arent you contradicting yourself now?

if the traders know the game is up, no amount of protests (or lack of) will change things now

the EUs answer is to throw more money (at the wolves), when has a debt problem ever been solved with more debt?
theres another protest scheduled in Greece by their unions in a week
the euro returned to its slide against the dollar as money exits


I agree with you that the last thing we need are cameras filming our far left elements going wild
But there is only so long we can continue to put on a show before reality bites
The world seems to have bought all the crap about "austerity" since December, but the reality is that this year is already shaping up to be worse than 2009 in term of finances, the government of course will try to spin things, but how much confidence is left in Ireland? did we buy enough time? are we going down the right track fast enough?