Why it is in YOUR OWN INTEREST not to strike or protest at this time (mid May 2010).

DeVore

Screw the government, they are dead at the next election. I'm out for us now and I want to explain to you why our best option right now is to sit tight and ride this out.


But you need to understand what an "institutional speculator" is to understand. I'll do my best to keep this simple and amusing, but its important you DO understand.


A speculator is basically a glorified gambler. But a gambler backs a horse and his horse either wins or loses. Not so for the speculators. In their world the game plays like this:

They pick a horse (country) they dont like the look of and they bet AGAINST it. That is, they buy a sort of insurance that says "if the country goes broke, the holder is covered". Now, imagine all the countries are lined up in the starting blocks aaaaand... they're off....



Suddenly Greece is miles behind and Ireland, Spain and Portugal are bringing up the rear too.
Now, the speculators who bought this special kind of "insurance" against the bankruptcy of those countries, well.... they find themselves in possesion of a (suddenly) very valuable and sought after piece of paper eh??

I mean, wouldnt you like a "get out of jail free card" if you were heavily invested in the Greek government bonds?? Sure you would!



So the speculators sell their insurance and make a profit. (they arent stupid, they never had anything in vested in those countries in the first place, they just speculated that insurance for those countries might be very handy to someone soon.

Greece didnt need to go bankrupt for them to win, it just had to go down the tubes a bit from where it started. The speculators guessed right that it would, bought insurance cheap when the coutnry was kinda ok and sold it when it was looking dodgy. Nice chunk of change.



Now comes the interesting bit. The EU heads have actually done something clever. They put a big big BIG sack of money on the table in the middle of Europe and said to the markets "wherever you go to speculate, we'll prop up that government by letting them borrow money from this here big pile of dosh!".

Well, thats death to the speculators. Firstly their money could well be tied up in insurance that isnt going to pay off as described above because the target country wont be allowed to fail and everyone knows it so the value of any insurance is eroded!


Secondly, money invested in the stock market that doesnt return any profit is in fact making a loss because it could easily have been banked and made a few percent. Thats bad for the speculators, their bosses will see that as a LOSS.



Thirdly the country might even benefit from access to these new funds and then its AWFUL news for the speculators the country would become MORE secure and the insurance becomes LESS valuable... now they have made the cardinal sin of actually LOSING money. Bad bad bad. No bicuit.



So, there is significant risk of significant loss for them and the EU is standing there with a 1 trillion Euro budget ready to fight with. No institution wants to take that on. Its just too scary, they could get burned badly. Money is tight remember, even for banks!



So we're all good then?! Protest away?? Well no. If the speculators get a single strong signal that a country is internally going nuts, then EN MASSE they will attack. One or two of them would be no problem, but like pirahna the problem is when they all attack in a group.


What they NEED is a single kick off point, kind of like a shotgun start at a golf course, everyone gets a clear GO GO GO signal. For Greece it was the strikes which led to the IMF.

In every trading floor room I have ever been on there were constant displays of world news, SKy News, BBC, ABC, CNN etc on LCD tvs. We do NOT want to be on those screens. Ever.



What we need to be doing now is saying "nothing to see here, move along to someone else, we're gold".

Going out and protesting right now is NOT going to change anything, I'm sorry but do you really think it will? Has it ever before??


But what it will do is bring the dog-pack here en masse.

Save your anger for the election, contact your TD and wear his ear off, but to go on the streets and riot or appear to be supporting riots is lunacy.


If you are in the Public sector, you DO NOT WANT to see the IMF come here, they dont care about you and they arent elected so they dont care if you dont like their measures, they will simply take control of the government coffers and issue your bosses less payroll. It wont be a "cut" as such, they just simply wont pay you.

If you are in private sector, you might think "wooo, that sounds like fun, lets f*ck the PS again. Come on IMF". You are also nuts. Reaming the PS just means a whole pile of stoppages and our country, your country, gets trashed. Good luck selling your goods, or helping your boss sell his goods when no one can move in the cities and no one has any money to spend. Some of your customers are Public Sector remember...

So what do we do? Lie back and think of Ireland? Well, ironically, yes. We take this shafting because we have no choice, we havent had since NAMA. But we should remember this and when the time of reckoning comes (its called an election ) we screw these bastards to the wall.


Right to the motherf*cking wall.



But we dont screw ourselves. Not now... cos we are the only ones looking after us now. Think clearly, think with your heads.



DeV.

DeVore

oops, moved to Politics. Pol mods, I forswear any admin abilities here. If you think this is in the wrong place, or out of order, please deal with it as you normally would. I'm speaking here only as Tom Murphy.


DeV.

anymore

DeVore wrote: »

Screw the government, they are dead at the next election. I'm out for us now and I want to explain to you why our best option right now is to sit tight and ride this out.

<snip>

But we dont screw ourselves. Not now... cos we are the only ones looking after us now. Think clearly, think with your heads.



DeV.

Whats your point ?

DeVore

1. Education.

2. Dont protest on Tuesday or support protests that are going to be hijacked by rioters.

DeV.

mike65

Is this an editorial?

Riot if you want to pay more for everything

banshee_bones

I think that his point is that instead of rioting now we take our righteous anger out on the government in a way that will really hurt them. Election Time.

Oh and the IMF is baaad. Think someone has been reading a bit of Stiglitz! :pac:

stepbar

Mind you I agree with everything but I wanna know where the pot of money was borrowed from?

DeVore

Mike... its self-centred selfish worry. Someone has to worry about us cos no one else is gonna. I like your synopsis better but people need to understand WHY rioting right now is awful and self-defeating.


Also, if you are an economist or a trader/banker, I am really really really sorry for boiling it down to that sort of simplicity I know bond trading is more complex then that but thats the essence of it as best I could explain it.


DeV.

Ulysses Gaze

Rioting will do little for the country I agree, DeVore.

But I think you give too much credit to the Irish people. We've been raped by FF in the past, particularly the 77 Lynch cabinet that in two years increased the national debt by £2 bilion and Haughey's cabinets.....and yet they still get re-elected.

If there is an election, FG/Lab for two years...that Govrnment will collapse and another election and then FF and the Shinners in coalition right in time for 2016 and the 100 year anniversary of the Rising.

wes

Yeah, makes a lot of sense. We really need to avoid the IMF like the plague. If the came in, things would get a lot worse.

DeVore

stepbar wrote: »

Mind you I agree with everything but I wanna know where the pot of money was borrowed from?

Mostly Germany, France and the IMF (yes, they were leveraged for about a quarter of it).

Some of it is promisary notes, like saying "we'll have the cash for you(EU) if you need it, but we're kinda using it right now?".

It was gathered from the various governments (which must have been a feat) except the UK who arent too wild about propping up the Euro... mind you they still helped out through the IMF.

Basically, its just about every spare cent that they could find down the back of every country's sofa. This was one massive shock and awe to the markets, its a huge "come and have a go if you think your hard enough" and like most bullies, it appears the speculators are moving on cos Europe looks a bit 'ard like.

DeV.

anymore

banshee_bones wrote: »

I think that his point is that instead of rioting now we take our righteous anger out on the government in a way that will really hurt them. Election Time.

Oh and the IMF is baaad. Think someone has been reading a bit of Stiglitz! :pac:

Voting the Government out may be a little satisfying, but it is like sending them to the sin bin.
You then elect a man as taoiseach who spent twenty years holding on to a full time job as a teacher and who will be drawing a defined benefits teachers pension along with a defined benefits TDs pensiona and a defined benefits ministers oension along with a € 170,000 a year package of car and drivers for the rest of his life.
Screw that, give me the IMF.

DeVore

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Rioting will do little for the country I agree, DeVore.

But I think you give too much credit to the Irish people. We've been raped by FF in the past, particularly the 77 Lynch cabinet that in two years increased the national debt by £2 bilion and Haughey's cabinets.....and yet they still get re-elected.

If there is an election, FG/Lab for two years...that Govrnment will collapse and another election and then FF and the Shinners in coalition right in time for 2016 and the 100 year anniversary of the Rising.

Cool. Ok, thats democracy and we get the government we deserve.

What I'm saying now is lets have a country to have SOMEONE rule over. Lets have that choice cos I know I'll remember this...


Irish people have long memories too, I dont think this is going to be let go as easy as you think... we have a lot of pain still to come, I just want to take the path of least pain for US.

DeV.

Catari Jaguar

Ok, equating it to a horse race just made this politics lark waaaaaaay more confusing. Thanks for that.

jimi_t2

Absolutely brilliant and informative article. You set out to keep it simple and amusing and hit all the marks - you've a great eye for style and I must say I'm a big fan of your blog.

I'd highly advise you to use your leverage as the founder of boards to get it as an Op piece in one the papers; indymedia at the very least.

sron

I think the Greek rioting has a nihilistic strain which wants to tear down the structure you've detailed (and why not; it's corrupt and parasitic) no matter what the cost. Irish protest is a more impotent type of rage, and probably will accomplish nothing.

DeVore

I dont use Boards for my political view any more then any other user can. Its not fair on the moderators who dont agree with me but do help run the site, so you wont see me putting this up on stickies or announcements or anything but everyone can start a thread and this is mine, like any user.


I know, its a pain, I'd lover to blast this to everyone in a freakin popup but thats abusing my position of trust in our neutrality as a platform.


Thank you for the kind words. If you or anyone else likes this explanation then feel free to link it up in your sig.... I'll be publishing it to my blog shortly too.

DeV.

i57dwun4yb1pt8

i like your plan :cool:
but feel it lacks the essential gassing of all fianna fail and green party voters.

anymore

DaDumTish wrote: »

i like your plan :cool:
but feel it lacks the essential gassing of all fianna fail and green party voters.

Have you any more environmentally friendly way for the Greens ?
Gas is a fossil fuel ! :eek:

DeVore

DaDumTish wrote: »

i like your plan :cool:
but feel it lacks the essential gassing of all fianna fail and green party voters.

We can do that later in the year.


DeV.

DeVore

sron wrote: »

I think the Greek rioting has a nihilistic strain which wants to tear down the structure you've detailed (and why not; it's corrupt and parasitic) no matter what the cost. Irish protest is a more impotent type of rage, and probably will accomplish nothing.

The greeks have achieved nothing either, except to hand their finances over to the IMF by proxy.


Oh, and immeasurably lengthen the recovery period for themselves.





And kill three people.


DeV.

Sand

Greece didnt need to go bankrupt for them to win, it just had to go down the tubes a bit from where it started. The speculators guessed right that it would, bought insurance cheap when the coutnry was kinda ok and sold it when it was looking dodgy. Nice chunk of change.



Now comes the interesting bit. The EU heads have actually done something clever. They put a big big BIG sack of money on the table in the middle of Europe and said to the markets "wherever you go to speculate, we'll prop up that government by letting them borrow money from this here big pile of dosh!".

An alternative perspective.

The speculators can only get a payoff if Greece is unable to service and roll over its debt, or if it appears increasingly likely based on available information that Greece is unable to service and roll over its debt.

So long as Greece is well run fiscally, the speculators lose. No special assistance required. They only win because Greece looks like a basket case. And eventually the old age truth applies - if it looks like a duck, it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck...it is a duck. Investors are rightly concerned that they will never see their money back from the Greeks.

At its base, this is not a liquidity crisis. Its an insolvency crisis. Greece cannot repay its debt. It is unable to generate the economic growth to repay its debt. A restructuring of debt beckons, hence the demand for insurance, hence the speculators payoff. If the Greeks had a credible plan for servicing their debt, reduced demand for insurance.

The EU has put down a big pot of money. This will allow the Greeks to pay off its bond holders as those bonds come due and roll over their debt. But this doesnt make the debt dissapear, it simply changes who the money is owed to. And it doesnt change the underlying reality that the Greeks cant repay the debt. And it increases the exposure of other Eurozone states to the Greek crisis.

The debt, and the loss is still there. All that has been purchased is time, and an even bigger reckoning a year or two down the line. And this time, the losses on the Greeks default will be suffered not by the investors who lent to them, but instead to the taxpayers of the other EU states who will have to pick up the tab. Thats even if the political will can be found to implement the reforms in Greece (debateable), the political will for the richer states to stick to their guns (debateable) or what the EU will do if the Greeks refuse to implement their reforms - remove the funds and return to square one? How long will the Germans put up with inflationary policies of the ECB? What happens if Atlas shrugs and they return to the DM? Germany is one of the few countries in the Euro that could leave the Euro on good terms.

If you want to ward off investor speculation you simply need credible policies. You tack against the wind, not headfirst into it. The fiscal policies of the Greeks, the PIIGS and to a wider extent the EU have been incredible. Hence speculators taking bets against them actually succeeding.

Politicians have time and time again tried to stare down the market shouting "You shall not pass!". Their victories are celebrated in myth and legend, their failures as in the breakdown of the ERM back in the early 90s despite every leader swearing blind theyd fight tooth and nail to maintain it are slightly more common though.

The banks might not have a lot of money, but the EU states arent exactly debt free. If anything the banks will be in a better position after this bailout - they will be able to cash out of Greece and leave some other poor eejits to absorp the losses when the Greeks run out of road.

jimi_t2

DeVore wrote: »

I dont use Boards for my political view...

I applaud you on your integrity and it pretty much sums up this whole fiasco;

The genuine humanatarians and socialists, the people who maintain an appropriate sense of outrage and have a moral conscience.

The people who see that the world is not right and endevour to rectify this through nothing but their own sense of decency.

The people who day after day, week after week, do their best to attempt to educate those worst affected about their position and how to alleviate it through a sense of duty to their common man.

These are the people who refuse to stoop to the level of FF.

This is why no improvement on this fiasco can be made in any direct way.


Dev, while I completely understand your feelings on using a community portal as a political soapbox, for better or worse, I do believe that your name carries a considerable cachet.

Similarly, I believe you can trade on your name given your work in setting up this site without infringing upon your sense of moral conscience or integrity, nor impinging upon your sense of neutrality.

There's two brands at play here - that of ''Dev'' and that of ''boards.ie''.

OP pieces are all about getting people from diverse walks of life to give their views on events. People would be genuinely interested in the views of the creator of the largest online discussion board in Ireland without attributing such views to the site itself.

But hey, this is just my 2c and I'm sure you've given it considerable thought yourself.

jimi_t2

If you want to ward off investor speculation you simply need credible policies. You tack against the wind, not headfirst into it. The fiscal policies of the Greeks, the PIIGS and to a wider extent the EU have been incredible. Hence speculators taking bets against them actually succeeding.

QFT. The speculators themselves are only using an abused system. They didn't set the status quo and, while profiting, serve to ensure that the original investors don't end up going tits up.

DeVore

If anyone wanted to republish this they have my permission, I only ask they do so in full and unedited with credit.

I dunno if anyone would care what I think, I'm not sure why they would but this is something I feel really strongly about. I want to f*ck those politicians soooo badly, I hate what they have done but pick your targets, know your enemy and bide your time.

Now is not that time.

DeV.

DeVore

jimi_t2 wrote: »

QFT. The speculators themselves are only using an abused system. They didn't set the status quo and, while profiting, serve to ensure that the original investors don't end up going tits up.

Yes and that needs fixing, world wide.


Head down Ireland, this isnt your problem to fix. Nothing to see here.


DeV.

DeVore

Sand you CAN stare down the market, but its a case of nerve and "seizing the nettle". Too little and the speculators over run the rescue fund and its more trouble but 1 trillion dollars solely to counteract speculators??


No speculator is going to face that alone. And they dont really talk to each other much either, kinda tips your hand if you tell everyone what you are going to do and when. But they, like hyena's are circling knowing they could probably take the lion in the middle but scared to be the first to break.


This is poker on a massive scale and we're all in.


DeV.

yoshytoshy

Nice one Devore for that laymans briefing;).

I didn't get the impression people took the rioting seriously at the dail. But after reading the thread here ,it's something to take very serious.

DeVore

So long as Greece is well run fiscally, the speculators lose. No special assistance required. They only win because Greece looks like a basket case. And eventually the old age truth applies - if it looks like a duck, it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck...it is a duck. Investors are rightly concerned that they will never see their money back from the Greeks.

No, slightly incorrect. If it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck you can probably convince other people that its a duck EVEN IF YOU KNOW ITS NOT.

The debt will become centralised to the EU governments, its true. But thats better then in the hands of the institutions who would quite simply follow market forces and demand payment etc.

With the debt being to other EU governments, there is a strong incentive for them to ease back on crushing interest rates and demands for repayment. That buys Greece time.


Time for the IMF to do its work. The Greek government lacked the gumption to take its medicine cos like most medicine it tasted bad. Plus the greek people said "we dont deserve this, its not fair". ITS JUST AS 'NOT FAIR' HERE TOO. FAIR DOESNT MATTER RIGHT NOW.

As a result Greece is now getting a medicine-enema whether they like it or not. They will be forced into compliance. We took our medicine early, we probably need more but the fact is we are taking care of our business. Nothing to see here.


DeV.

danman

Excellant OP.

I've tried to convey similar feelings about protests in other threads, but not as well thought out.

Head down, arse to the wind... As my father used to say.

ei.sdraob

good post

DeVore wrote: »

If you are in private sector, you might think "wooo, that sounds like fun, lets f*ck the PS again. Come on IMF". You are also nuts. Reaming the PS just means a whole pile of stoppages and our country, your country, gets trashed. Good luck selling your goods, or helping your boss sell his goods when no one can move in the cities and no one has any money to spend. Some of your customers are Public Sector remember...

if you are in the export sector then NONE of your customers are in the public sector...

the private sector can be subdivided into two
* exports to outside the economy
* services within the economy

dont forget the above @dev

Drumpot

Dev . .

I applaud your stance, as I would usually be one to go against populist opinion . . In fact I deplore it as I would class it as the main reason our country is so screwed . . However, I would love to sit down and have a drink with you on this topic as I think we could debate this for hours, as there are specific flaws with your stance. No real change can happen if there is a smooth transition to a new government . .

You speak soley from an economists view (not sure if you are one), but how do people believe a conventional capitalist economist view of the current crisis will get us out of a crisis mainly caused by capitalist principles ? ie. . Keep your head down and the bond market blast might pass over our heads . .

As somebody who is self employed and actually doing quite well, from a financial point of view I would of course personally prefer a smoother transition from bubble, recession to just normality . . Working in the financial services industry I understand the potential ramifications of civil unrest . .

However, from a political point of view, while I agree with the main principle of your post, I feel I do not have the confidence in the electorate that you do. . I believe things should happen the way you suggest, but lets be honest, labour and FG are going to be the big winners in the next election and that doesnt guarantee the change this country really needs.

The problem I have with that isnt because I dont like the parties, but I believe it will mainly be because FF have fecked up so badly people will vote for the other parties in anger. . Seriously, how does anybody think this is going to be good for the country ? So voting for the opposite of what we have been voting for "solves the problems" of the country ?

I believe that the Irish People need to grow up as a nation . . Not striking/rioting is a step in the right direction, but I believe thinking that ticking a box every 5 years is basically doing the bare minimum to what your country requires.

Saying "I didnt vote for that shower" means nothing . . Nothing . . What did you do to try to encourage your principles when times were good ? Most people did nothing because in truth they didnt care while the going was good. I cant say I did much, all I did was vote like most people, but now I understand that accepting 2nd best (the other guys) is just not enough. . Im not advocating a vote for FF, Im advocating a vote for a better country based on sound principles. .

Do you really think that there will be a huge differance with the opposition ? Kenny with his "I will take a paycut" but a year later "I got the good PR, now I want to reverse my decision". . Gilemore with his "anything FF do is wrong" - Standing ovation by the sheep . .

Im not a party person, but I think people who rule out one party , not because they disagree with their principles, but because they are just angry at how sh*t things have gotten, are just asking for trouble . . It doesnt mean we cant change parties, but demand more of your politician.

The current opposition party know that they really just have to turn up at the poles (and not have ff beside their name) to get in. . What level of expectation do we have ("well, at least they arent ff). . Wow , we couldnt set the bar any lower . . Same old sh*t, just differant party . ..

DeVore

yoshytoshy wrote: »

Nice one Devore for that laymans briefing;).

I didn't get the impression people took the rioting seriously at the dail. But after reading the thread here ,it's something to take very serious.

Its all about perception. Your car doesnt roll backwards down the hill at 60 miles an hour at the start.... it rolls back very slowly, so slowly, one little push and it starts.

WW1 was triggered by the shooting of Arch Duke Ferdinand.
The economic crisis by a few bad housing loans in the south of america.

Butterfly effects feed into the "law of unintended consequences".


Ireland is not a Duck. Don't give them the weapons to convince investors that we are.

DeV.

ei.sdraob

on the subject of revolutions, every-time someone tries to stir up a revolution, i think of this passage...

Orwell wrote:

Throughout recorded time, and probably since the end of the Neolithic Age,
there have been three kinds of people in the world, the High, the Middle,
and the Low. They have been subdivided in many ways, they have borne
countless different names, and their relative numbers, as well as their
attitude towards one another, have varied from age to age: but the
essential structure of society has never altered. Even after enormous
upheavals and seemingly irrevocable changes, the same pattern has always
reasserted itself, just as a gyroscope will always return to equilibrium,
however far it is pushed one way or the other

The aims of these three groups are entirely irreconcilable. The aim of
the High is to remain where they are. The aim of the Middle is to change
places with the High. The aim of the Low, when they have an aim--for it
is an abiding characteristic of the Low that they are too much crushed
by drudgery to be more than intermittently conscious of anything outside
their daily lives--is to abolish all distinctions and create a society in
which all men shall be equal. Thus throughout history a struggle which is
the same in its main outlines recurs over and over again. For long periods
the High seem to be securely in power, but sooner or later there always
comes a moment when they lose either their belief in themselves or their
capacity to govern efficiently, or both. They are then overthrown by the
Middle, who enlist the Low on their side by pretending to them that they
are fighting for liberty and justice. As soon as they have reached their
objective, the Middle thrust the Low back into their old position of
servitude, and themselves become the High. Presently a new Middle group
splits off from one of the other groups, or from both of them, and the
struggle begins over again. Of the three groups, only the Low are never
even temporarily successful in achieving their aims. It would be an
exaggeration to say that throughout history there has been no progress of
a material kind. Even today, in a period of decline, the average human
being is physically better off than he was a few centuries ago. But no
advance in wealth, no softening of manners, no reform or revolution has
ever brought human equality a millimetre nearer. From the point of view of
the Low, no historic change has ever meant much more than a change in thename of their masters.

DeVore

ei.sdraob wrote: »

good post



if you are in the export sector then NONE of your customers are in the public sector...

the private sector can be subdivided into two
* exports to outside the economy
* services within the economy

dont forget the above @dev

Who will deliver their goods in and out of the country? How will they get the raw materials for to manufacture their exports? (from inside Ireland... which will be chaos).

No industry is an island when something like this hits. We stand or fall together. We take our unfair medicine, we bide our time and we remember.

DeV.

Zambia

I liked the explanation well put Dev.

However I'm with Drumpot the electorate will react with anger yet the only viable opposition I see is FG. We then face the prospect of them screwing up causing same anger and FF re-entering the dail on the back of a anyone but FG vote.

However I do agree a good riot/protest will fix none of this.

ei.sdraob

DeVore wrote: »

Who will deliver their goods in and out of the country? How will they get the raw materials for to manufacture their exports? (from inside Ireland... which will be chaos).

No industry is an island when something like this hits. We stand or fall together. We take our unfair medicine, we bide our time and we remember.

DeV.

I disagree with you there

no industry is an island but Ireland is an island
in a globalized world

the export sector is also split in two (indigenous and mnc's)

any sustained attack from the public/state servants on the export sector such as:
* closing airports (remember air traffic controllers)
* disrupting water supplies by council workers
* blockading roads by gardai and/or harassment of people
* cutting electricity supplies by esb


would ensure that most of these businesses once it reaches a point of the losses being too large
would simply leave the country

and my god that would be a real disaster, with no or little wealth generating industry the country would revert to potato farming in no time

you think the likes of Google, Microsoft, Intel, Ryanair would stick around if their profit margins are hit hard enough?


to summarize
the public service needs the export service much more than the export service needs the public service since exporting companies can simply leave to a more stable and friendly place (remember intel saying that out of 14 reasons for them to come to ireland only 1 remains),
thats where I agree with you that rocking the boat is counterproductive

i hope any militant unionists and sinn feiners are reading this thread

anymore

DeVore wrote: »

Its all about perception. Your car doesnt roll backwards down the hill at 60 miles an hour at the start.... it rolls back very slowly, so slowly, one little push and it starts.

WW1 was triggered by the shooting of Arch Duke Ferdinand.
The economic crisis by a few bad housing loans in the south of america.

Butterfly effects feed into the "law of unintended consequences".


Ireland is not a Duck. Don't give them the weapons to convince investors that we are.

DeV.

But doesnt the Law of Unintended consequences apply to your OP as well ?

digme

DeVore wrote: »

Screw the government, they are dead at the next election. I'm out for us now and I want to explain to you why our best option right now is to sit tight and ride this out.


But you need to understand what an "institutional speculator" is to understand. I'll do my best to keep this simple and amusing, but its important you DO understand.

<snip>
Right to the motherf*cking wall.



But we dont screw ourselves. Not now... cos we are the only ones looking after us now. Think clearly, think with your heads.



DeV.

Wipe your ass with Euro's as soon they will be worthless.

lifeinireland

DeVore wrote: »

Screw the government, they are dead at the next election. I'm out for us now and I want to explain to you why our best option right now is to sit tight and ride this out.


But you need to understand what an "institutional speculator" is to understand. I'll do my best to keep this simple and amusing, but its important you DO understand.

<snip>


But we dont screw ourselves. Not now... cos we are the only ones looking after us now. Think clearly, think with your heads.



DeV.

its that what i tell the bank when i cant pay my morgage,i cant pay cos ime bailing you out while you put up my interest rates.clearly you are not in a position like most of us.

DeVore

Zambia, we'll deal with that when the election comes around. I'm talking about the next 8-12 weeks.


Even just next week is critical.


Why do you think they pulled these riots now? Why now... nothing is being pushed through at the moment per se. No budget etc...


The people behind these riots want one thing. To see everything burn. They are extermists (the violent people, not the other 985 poor surprised fellow travellers).

They knew exactly what they were doing, they identified each other with black hoodies, they immediately ran up to the cops and started a row. They gloried in it.

watch it here... from about 4 mins in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2lEez-U4RY

These people are no more interested in your welfare then FF are. They want power and they want to tear everything down to get it.


Better to rule in hell.... etc.

DeV.

DeVore

lifeinireland wrote: »

its that what i tell the bank when i cant pay my morgage,i cant pay cos ime bailing you out while you put up my interest rates.clearly you are not in a position like most of us.

Will rioting make your position better or worse?


DeV.

lifeinireland

is that what i tell the bank when i cant pay my morgage,because ime paying more tax to bail them out while they put up interest rates to screw me again plus governments inderect tax like carbon petrol allready at 134,costing me 40 euro to travel to work.:mad:

DeVore

lifeinireland wrote: »

is that what i tell the bank when i cant pay my morgage,because ime paying more tax to bail them out while they put up interest rates to screw me again plus governments inderect tax like carbon petrol allready at 134,costing me 40 euro to travel to work.:mad:

And your suggested solution is??

Protest, hijacked by rioters, leading to financial instability??

Is that it?


DeV.

Sand

No, slightly incorrect. If it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck you can probably convince other people that its a duck EVEN IF YOU KNOW ITS NOT.

Greece probably isnt a good example for that, because its definitely a water dwelling winged creature with webbed feet that makes a suspicious quacking sound.

The Greek crisis developed as a more true representation of the fiscal and economic situation in Greece became clear and the markets reassesed their ability to meet their debts. The problem isnt that speculators made up misleading stories about the Greek situation, its that the truth of how deeply out of control their situation is was released. This isnt a conspiracy by the market deciding to knock off well run utopias one by one like a serial killer - its people looking at an economic blackhole and thinking...."I'll invest somewhere else"

Meanwhile the EU response is to awkwardly try to pretend everythings fine, come on in, the water is lovely...

The debt will become centralised to the EU governments, its true. But thats better then in the hands of the institutions who would quite simply follow market forces and demand payment etc.

Id wisper that actually - theres barely political will to bail out the Greeks by lending to them at easy rates: theres zero for simply giving them money. The taxpayers of the other EU states will be demanding payment.

The EU response doesnt address the underlying problem - the Greeks are spending more money than they have, their debt is rising year on year, and they arent making enough money to pay it back.

The Greek situation has suddenly turned into a political prestige issue - a macho showdown between the big boys of the EU and the big boys of the markets...incredible.

Nothing fundamentally has changed. There is still a credibility deficit between the politicians reality, and the economic reality. Everyone senses the incredulity of it - as Jason Byrne said "*WE* dont have any money. And the Greeks are asking us for money. And *WE'RE* giving them money?!?!?!" Its incredible. People dont believe it.

You're right, we dont want to draw the attention of speculators but the primary method for keeping our heads down will be putting together a credible policy for dealing with the states fiscal woes.

digme

DeVore wrote: »

And your suggested solution is??

Protest, hijacked by rioters, leading to financial instability??

Is that it?


DeV.

we are broke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
hellooooooooooooooo

DeVore

The Greek crisis developed as a more true representation of the fiscal and economic situation in Greece became clear and the markets reassesed their ability to meet their debts. The problem isnt that speculators made up misleading stories about the Greek situation, its that the truth of how deeply out of control their situation is was released. This isnt a conspiracy by the market deciding to knock off well run utopias one by one like a serial killer - its people looking at an economic blackhole and thinking...."I'll invest somewhere else"

No. Because thats not what they did during the currency speculations of the early 90s.


Oh no wait. Thats exactly what they did.



I used to write software for all the major banks Sand, I worked for a year in one major banks trading floor. I know these guys, I know what they are like and how they think.

The banks in Greece are speculating against the very bailout that is allowing them to speculate at all. Hows that for a thank you.

The only answer is to quell this firestorm before the wind grips it. If they smell blood, they will be in like a shot.


DeV.

lifeinireland

DeVore wrote: »

Will rioting make your position better or worse?


DeV.

will a change of government make it any better,i dont think so unless we have a new political party.

digme

DeVore wrote: »

No. Because thats not what they did during the currency speculations of the early 90s.


Oh no wait. Thats exactly what they did.



I used to write software for all the major banks Sand, I worked for a year in one major banks trading floor. I know these guys, I know what they are like and how they think.

The banks in Greece are speculating against the very bailout that is allowing them to speculate at all. Hows that for a thank you.

The only answer is to quell this firestorm before the wind grips it. If they smell blood, they will be in like a shot.


DeV.

The word Sociopath come to mind
Also the gov don't run this country.It's a corporatocracy.

DeVore

digme wrote: »

we are broke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
hellooooooooooooooo

America is broke. Argentina/Nigeria is in free fall. There is a difference.

There is no reason by the end of the year we couldnt have this relatively straightened out and be on the road to recovery. Dont buy the gloom any more then the spin.

DeV.

DeVore

lifeinireland wrote: »

will a change of government make it any better,i dont think so unless we have a new political party.

Thats for the election in a while... thats light years away and you know what, I agree with you. Completely.


But you dont change horses mid-apocalypse.

Dev.