Turning progressively colder through the week, Very cold with snow showers later

Danno

Just a side note - with major uncertainty attached - is that the resolution of the ECMWF was upgraded tonight and now should be treated as a seperate run out on it's own. This means that the model now becomes a Supermodel with far more detail than the others. Funny that we have a cold spell on the way at the same time as the upgrade was done - a sense of it's first real "test" so to speak. A "very very" interesting few days ahead... I am inclined to echo MTC above and throw the dice - hedging on a memorable few weeks ahead - cold north, snowy south... I like snow, and I like what I see in them there charts.

Danno.

Gonzo

im in London on Saturday and Sunday, am I likely to see any snow there? coming back to Dublin on Sunday night hope i don't run into travel problems!

Redsunset

Tell you what,if this comes off ya can forget about having shovels at the ready,tis snowploughs we need.




Simply incredible 12Z ECM run,and that is my fear.

Has it just finished off any remaining christmas brandy.

Maybe the upgrade has really got it firing on all cylinders.

Oh please hold.

Would like to see other models jump on board.

Danno

Tis looking mighty, ECMWF on steroids. But then again, it was always the strongest model in the group.

Graces7

With you all the way , Min..

OK for townies who can look out of the window at it.

We have 150 Haitian babies to feed ; I need to be out selling at the weekend, and cannot if snow comes back.

And there is no more money here for fuel for another month anyways. Period.

Ah well....

And I am enjoying the peace and serenity also. Maybe we are just more mature ... With a broader view of weather than whizzbangs and drumrolls and all that superficial stuff..Youngsters have forgotten what silence is,

We will see what we will see.

Offline now for a week or so; can be contacted only on anchoresscj at yahoo dot com

Min says...
"I don't miss the ice and snow, it was just hardship and lots of extra work plus the snow lasts too long around here, I can still find the remains of a snow drift from the blizzard two weeks ago.

I like the current weather.[/QUOTE]

Wibbler

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I can see some similarities developing in the next 2 weeks to the pattern seen in the second half of Feb 1933 when Ireland had what I am told was its most severe snowstorms on record.

Ooooh, ramping just a little there, M.T.

Deep Easterly

Horrific, but unsurprising, ECM run this morning. High pressure to the near south throughout:



The sheer non-descriptness the weather of the last couple of weeks is fast canceling out the wintry joy of early Jan. Seems we are set to be stuck in this void for another while yet, with no real cold or warmth to look forward to. No exciting weather, no roaring gales, no roaring thunder, nothing. Average temps at best with below average rain totals and wind speeds. If this is what a cold winter brings, then I would rather the mild ones please, at least they are more active and interesting overall from a weather enthusiast's point of view.

However, I'd not be surprised to see a different evolution on tonight's ECM run once again. :pac:

Deep Easterly

Regarding the weekend, ECM just not buying into it at all. Cool certainly, but not much cooler than the first half of this week. Some temp forecasts for select cities around Ireland for the coming weekend:

Belfast
Galway
Dublin
Cork

Of course, with a light, occasionally moderate breeze, it will feel cool to cold for sure.

Pangea

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Regarding the weekend, ECM just not buying into it at all. Cool certainly, but not much cooler than the first half of this week. Some temp forecasts for select cities around Ireland for the coming weekend:

Belfast
Galway
Dublin
Cork

Of course, with a light, occasionally moderate breeze, it will feel cool to cold for sure.

hmm so ur saying no big freeze coming?..

It might be a blip.

It's definitely a case of people running away with themselves in FI again.

How many times does it have to be said FI is fantasy land.

Over on net weather this past 2 days "reasonable" posters were patting people on the back when charts 10 days hence were showing an easterly... :rolleyes::eek::rolleyes:

They either never learn or have a screw loose or don't have a clue.

One important point has been brought home by the ecm DE posted...and that is,the weather also depends on where lows go.
Model them a bit different and the model shows gunk.

I repeat it might be a blip,it might be a new trend.
It's definitely not the weather we will have exactly,thats the only sure thing you can ever say about any chart beyond 96hrs.

Rebelbrowser

No idea if its a good website but this is what theweatheroutlook is saying this morning on its front page:


Big freeze likely for February

The next few days will bring generally cold weather, and during Thursday and Friday we are expecting rain, sleet and snow to push south across Britain, with some places possibly having significant accumulations of snow. It is a very marginal situation though, and rain is more likely further south and west. We'll issue an update about this on Wednesday evening.
Looking further ahead, we are expecting more cold weather, and there is a chance of a spell of severe wintry weather developing across the country as we head towards the middle of February. We'll be keeping a very close eye on how this develops as it may well bring the chance of an exceptionally cold February to Britain. The last time the UK had a month when the Central England Temperature (CET) was less than 0C was February 1986, and there is an outside chance that we'll see a similarly cold month this year. As well as being bitterly cold, February 1986 was actually mostly dry. The black and white picture is from the dim and distant past, and shows what conditions were like during February 1947 which is one of the most famous months in UK weather history. As well as being bitterly cold it also brought heavy and widespread snowfalls across almost all of Britain. We're not suggesting February 2010 will be a carbon copy of either of these months, but with a huge amount of cold and heavy air just to our east there is a realistic chance of it turning into a month to remember.

Brian put that on his front page a little too quickly.

Why did he use the word likely?

The chances are well less than 50% which is not what I'd call likely.
*might happen* would have been a better phrase.

Heart racing ahead of head again.

Tonights ECM could show more of the same [southerlies] or go back to the Easterly.
My hunch is the latter.
But still when it's FI,even if it does,It doesn't matter much given the poor performance of models this winter post 96hrs.

If theres no low to the south of the English channel,the easterly fetch will be too slack.
If a low pivots and goes the wrong way for an Easterly,there will be none or it will be short lived.
Pointless looking at +144 images for that kind of detail.

Redsunset

Could be all a belly flop but yes lets see what later runs bring.

Joe b latest update doesn't say anything at all about a renewed blast here,just brutal cold to our south east (mainland europe)

Redsunset

This is taken from the live chart on the strat warming thread and i have froze it.

This chops and changes alot but today shows forecasted downwelling to the surface of easterlies that reach high up in the strat.interesting.

Su Campu

What longitude is that taken at? 0°?

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I can see some similarities developing in the next 2 weeks to the pattern seen in the second half of Feb 1933 when Ireland had what I am told was its most severe snowstorms on record. Looking at the maps I have to imagine these were around the 24th to end of the month. What's quite similar is that a week to ten days before this, the flow was northerly around a strong retrograde high near 35W as per all the guidance for this weekend. Then, although it's not day by day exactly similar, the northerly slowly gave way to an easterly with low pressure forming over Germany and spreading west across southern England.

A couple of weeks ago I was thinking perhaps the cold would return briefly then it might turn milder in February. That was partly based on the El Nino pattern strengthening in early January, but now it seems to be rapidly fading and there has been quite a strong warming event in the stratosphere.

It wouldn't surprise me now if February turned bitterly cold and you would have to think the odds are probably better than 50-50 that if it does so, a significant snowfall will develop. The Feb 1933 cold was not all that intense, looking at the CET records there were days near zero but nothing really as cold as what we're seeing on the current charts where CET days could easily get down to -5 or lower (around the 8th-9th on the current GFS run).

Now I realize that these model runs get into high uncertainty past five days, but often you get a glimpse of some future reality, even if it is going to have different details or timing. So I'm beginning to think that the winter of 09-10 may now transition from significant to memorable or even extreme. Some would say it already has been memorable (I would agree) so I guess I am pointing at extreme here -- and if so, this forum is going to get super busy.

you've just jinxed it. completely unscientific i know, but our greatest snowfall comes when it's not expected. so with that in mind i bet the models will be showing milder weather again in the coming days.:(

nacho libre

redsunset wrote: »

Could be all a belly flop but yes lets see what later runs bring.

Joe b latest update doesn't say anything at all about a renewed blast here,just brutal cold to our south east (mainland europe)

well considering he was the only one to predict the severity of the last cold spell and predict that the cold weather would return, albeit with with the core of the cold to the continent, i'm officially off this rollcoaster. still hopefully we will see some wintry showers at the weekend.

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

i'm officially off this rollcoaster.

Nacho opening his door next Sunday morning greeted by a monster snowfall.

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Nacho opening his door next Sunday morning greeted by a monster snowfall.

haha

i would fupping love it...

thecretinhop

Ha ha love that clip, looks like James May when he was 18:D

Redsunset

Su Campu wrote: »

What longitude is that taken at? 0°?

There lies the problem,i don't know.

All it says relating to chart is

Height-latitude section from 1000 hPa to 1 hPa (0°N - 90°N) of the zonal mean zonal wind (m/s)

It's from the guys in berlin ,

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

pauldry

would appear to be an interesting February if cold and dry a lot of the time. Surely some snow will ensue!!!!! Does ensue mean follow?

darkman2

The ECM probrably got the timing wrong yesterday. Not to say it won't change back today of course. Now a milder interlude looks likely before something like this. Something very cold is clearly developing.





In the meantime cold Northerly winds and snow showers by the weekend. It may stay cold through the early days of next week too.

Two other interesting things. GFS ensembles bringing in the easterly much earlier then the operational run. Also DWD model is bizarrely similar to last nights ECM at 132hrs.

ECM this evening could be interesting.

Deep Easterly

Pangea wrote: »

Nacho opening his door next Sunday morning greeted by a monster snowfall.

:D:D

Deep Easterly

UKMO showing an ECMish type set up:



Pressure lowering over SE Europe a little with subtle pressure rise to the far north. Will it be enough to drag up our meandering Atlantic high? A window of opportunity for this seems to be developing west of Scandinavia but still looks a bit weak. We'll see.

darkman2

It's not very often you see ensembles like this for this part of the world. The average is -5 or below for the vast majority of the run. Also note how the other members bring in the East wind much earlier then the Operational run (the thick green line)...




Yes, DE, UKMO not perfect but looks good none the less. (good, depending on your point of view of course! )

M.T. Cranium

I guess my point was that the current pattern indicating a northerly of limited cold has in the past been followed (in one to two weeks) by more potent cold from an easterly source. The models continue to indicate this possibility but there is the warning sign of a trend towards putting off the colder easterly by a day at a time (sometimes this indicates that it will eventually fizzle out).

Have not seen the 12z ECM yet but I feel that another 3-5 day cold spell is probably more than 50% likely in February. The point about the 1933 snowfall worth keeping in mind is that it evolved out of a pattern that was not record-breaking cold to the east of Ireland, in fact if you look at the daily CET values there were some very mild days in early Feb 1933 before the northerly set in around mid-month and there the means dropped to similar values to what is expected Friday to Sunday, near 2 C. Even in the stronger cold easterly that followed with the snow events in Ireland, the mean daily CET values never dropped below -1 C that month.

Another factor to consider is that the Baltic Sea is almost frozen with extensive ice developing in its northern reaches, and that cold water is mixing out into the North Sea bringing temps there lower than in previous winters, so that any sort of moderate easterly will easily drop snow in the UK, a stepping stone to getting the air mass cold enough for snow in Ireland.

However, I don't want to ramp here, this is my gut feeling that the synoptics will turn to a favourable pattern eventually, in part because the El Nino pattern seems to have weakened and once the weekend US storm has ejected and done its business with southern Greenland, there may not be a steady parade of strong lows coming into the Atlantic, so with the recent stratwarm event, and the seasonal pattern of strong blocking likely to return at some point, I figure the odds must be at least 50-50 that deep cold will return. Anyway, we have a monthly forecast contest for anyone who wants to make a guess as to how cold. The team did pretty well for January, I believe the consensus was a bit higher than the outcome but not a lot higher. We'll see what the consensus for February looks like, that will be more of a scatter I am sure.

200motels

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I guess my point was that the current pattern indicating a northerly of limited cold has in the past been followed (in one to two weeks) by more potent cold from an easterly source. The models continue to indicate this possibility but there is the warning sign of a trend towards putting off the colder easterly by a day at a time (sometimes this indicates that it will eventually fizzle out).

Have not seen the 12z ECM yet but I feel that another 3-5 day cold spell is probably more than 50% likely in February. The point about the 1933 snowfall worth keeping in mind is that it evolved out of a pattern that was not record-breaking cold to the east of Ireland, in fact if you look at the daily CET values there were some very mild days in early Feb 1933 before the northerly set in around mid-month and there the means dropped to similar values to what is expected Friday to Sunday, near 2 C. Even in the stronger cold easterly that followed with the snow events in Ireland, the mean daily CET values never dropped below -1 C that month.

Another factor to consider is that the Baltic Sea is almost frozen with extensive ice developing in its northern reaches, and that cold water is mixing out into the North Sea bringing temps there lower than in previous winters, so that any sort of moderate easterly will easily drop snow in the UK, a stepping stone to getting the air mass cold enough for snow in Ireland.

However, I don't want to ramp here, this is my gut feeling that the synoptics will turn to a favourable pattern eventually, in part because the El Nino pattern seems to have weakened and once the weekend US storm has ejected and done its business with southern Greenland, there may not be a steady parade of strong lows coming into the Atlantic, so with the recent stratwarm event, and the seasonal pattern of strong blocking likely to return at some point, I figure the odds must be at least 50-50 that deep cold will return. Anyway, we have a monthly forecast contest for anyone who wants to make a guess as to how cold. The team did pretty well for January, I believe the consensus was a bit higher than the outcome but not a lot higher. We'll see what the consensus for February looks like, that will be more of a scatter I am sure.

Great stuff MT.

darkman2

The 12z ECM, whilst cold, is never very cold. However the operational charts are on the mild side of the ECM ensembles and thus a colder outcome is likely with High Pressure located further North. (Temperature bottom left, red line is operational run i.e the chart above)

Su Campu

The way I see it at the moment is Sunday willl be climax of this brief snap. With an unstable northerly flow, a convergence line should form in the Irish Sea Saturday and Sunday, shown by today's FAX charts. Potential temperature forecasts would suggest the possibility of these giving snow at low levels along the north and east coasts, but with the east-west divide, further west conditions will be much less conducive for low level snow, with any showers along the northwest and west coasts falling as rain below about 1200-1500ft.

These details are too fine to be quoting this far out, the NAE guidance will be of a major benefit when its forecasts start to cover the weekend time period from tomorrow. I find it performed better than the GFS last time when it came to potential temperatures, of great help when determining snow lines.