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Cold Spell & Snowfall Discussion Part 2 (Eagle says Polar Low) Wednesday/Thursday
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The snow in places here in Castlenock is about 15cm deep but generally about 10 at th e moment but more heavy snow is due in Dublin in the next 24-36 hours. If one thinks the Kerry mountains are bad then there is over three times that I would say in Dublin/Wicklow where the weather is always colder and more extreme. They are currnelty skiing and snowboarding there and have been doing that since before the New Year.:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
Congrats on the snow, about 8cm here
But there is no snow forecast for Dublin in the next 24-36 hours, forget about it.
And it's not always colder and more extreme in the Wicklow Mts. Generally it is, especially in easterlies, but definitely not always.0 -
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made a small trip to the shops around 6 o clock. seemed ok, a little slippery but nothing too bad i thought. what took me 5 mins to get there, it took me around 30 to get home. i had to keep driving to avoid really steep inclines, the car simply couldnt deal with it!
fun navigating around rural carlow..... 0 -
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maquiladora wrote: »Its too far out for him to talk about in detail, plus theres no point causing hysteria as it might not come to much. But I think the graphics at the end showing widespread snow showers sunday/monday speaks for itself. :pac:
he could just say risk! anyway hes the expert and i am just getting grumpy after very minimal snow! it would be nice like 1987 to have a snow event on a sunday evening and a monday snow day off!
:rolleyes:
yeah i saw that graphic but i find those are usually misleading. 0 -
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I was amazed to see John mention the words polar low in his bulletin this evening. I thought I was dreaming, then he mentioned it again, so I thought: Where the hell did that one come from, how did we miss that?! :eek:
Looking at it closely, there are conflicting signals as to whether it will be a textbook Polar Low or just a low originating in polar regions. I feel it's the latter.
Going back 24hrs and seeing where the system originated:
At 00Z today, a lee low pressure system formed off the east coast of Greenland, under the divergent right exit region of a 300hPa southerly jet streak over the Faroes.
By 18Z this evening, this low was occluding and was centred right over the island of Jan Mayen. Its associated warm and cold front had crossed Iceland, and the triple point was located between Iceland and Norway. It is this triple point which is the focus of tomorrow's weather for us.
While some of the ingredients for a classic polar low are there, there aren't enough to give us the classic polar low. We don't have the sub -40°C 500hPa air (only about -33°C), the system is already cold core baroclynic (ie. has a warm and cold front) which is not where a polar low comes from. Polar Lows are very similar to tropical hurricanes in that they are warm core systems, feeding off latent heat release of deep convection. This system does not show any signs of deep convection on satellite animations, only the cirrus shield of the warm front.
The 12Z UKMO NAE does have this system as a tight 1011hPa low pressure system off the northwest coast by 9am tomorrow. The GFS has it not as deep but in roughly the same position. The NAE accordingly has higher precipitation rates (mostly rain) affecting the northwest Mayo coast by midday, leaving the Kerry coast by midnight. The surface windspeeds are at most 25 knots, less than the 27kts+ required for a polar low, but then that's splitting hairs.
So while it is an interesting developent, and is going to be exciting to track over the next 12 hours, I'll be interested to see what actually happens to this system. I can't see the conditions present for it to develop as much as the models predict, and reckon that by this time tomorrow we'll be looking back some falls of snow above 400-500ft in the west and south, with rain at low levels, but probably dissapointed that yet again we missed the elusive Polar Low!0 -
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Kilkenny City outskirts...
Temperature still dropping..
Temperature: -4.2 °C
Dew Point: -5.0 °C
At this rate it'll be really really cold at 7/8am.
Why does it always get to it's coldest at that time anyway?
Is it because the air doesn't get warmed up again until sunrise?0 -
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nacho libre wrote: »i'm tempted to just log off and see what happens... or go into reverse psychology mode-
it's not going to happen
it's not going to happen
it's not going to happen
it's not going to happen
it's definitely not going to happen
please snowgods let it happen!!!:D
meanwhile it's down to -5.2c now.
You need to get more westies in here willing it to happen! Look what happened in the east, which was a direct result of positive mental attitude (and a bit of hopecasting) here on the weather forum 0 -
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This discussion has been closed.
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