Cold Spell & Snowfall Discussion Part 2 (Eagle says Polar Low) Wednesday/Thursday

eskimocat

-4 here too... no idea of dew point sorry...

mollzer

Now that the West/North West and the East/South East got their share of snow its time the midlands got some.
We've only had enough to make a snowball!

WolfeIRE

Load this run. http://www.yr.no/satellitt/1.5941760 See how the main low system has travelled all the way from Greenland. Mind you it is only a fraction of the beast it started out as.

Owen - you will see the sowers popping up at the end of that run. They are going to pepper most of the north coast including Antrim. Later in the night the activity will shift more to the NW though. You can blame your snow shield for that.

TIP FOR THE YR.NO - once loaded manually drag the timeline icon. It is very interesting to see the battle between the blocking scandanavian high and the low systems. That high is Europe's schoolyard bully at the moment.

MammyNotSpammy

So, no more for Dublin then?

WolfeIRE

MammyNotSpammy wrote: »

So, no more for Dublin then?

nothing significant until later friday or Sat AM most likely.

thetonynator

mollzer wrote: »

Now that the West/North West and the East/South East got their share of snow its time the midlands got some.
We've only had enough to make a snowball!

Did you not get some last night, there was a second lot of precip coming down south from the north???

MetLuver

Duffff-Man wrote: »

Not just the westies. Im on here too

mise freisin:D

WolfeIRE

six one weather from John Eagleton

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0106/6news_av.html?2677774,null,230

Chicken Run

I can see the border between Clare & Galway from my bathroom window...so that's Connaught int it ?? So I might get some.....

AND I'm a hairy woman

owenc

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Load this run. http://www.yr.no/satellitt/1.5941760 See how the main low system has travelled all the way from Greenland. Mind you it is only a fraction of the beast it started out as.

Owen - you will see the sowers popping up at the end of that run. They are going to pepper most of the north coast including Antrim. Later in the night the activity will shift more to the NW though. You can blame your snow shield for that.

TIP FOR THE YR.NO - once loaded manually drag the timeline icon. It is very interesting to see the battle between the blocking scandanavian high and the low systems. That high is Europe's schoolyard bully at the moment.

ok thanks again will be hoping we get some significant snow out of this as 2 inches of here have been crap i want 6 inches lol! how much can we expect out of this btw i am about 5-10 miles from antrim so i am not really in antrim! but near

jambofc

maquiladora wrote: »

I wonder will it give us a surprise and track a bit further east... ;)

Weathercheck wrote: »

Ummm

Looks like the developing low is reasonably further East.

i was thinking that this event might be a lot more to the east,looking at the chart's,but was afraid i would be laughed of the stage

wc,i think this could affect a lot of the midland's,what do you think?

thetonynator

My snow man!!!:D


Its not showing, sorry!!!

WolfeIRE

This is the predicted cloud cover for midday tomorrow according to the GFS (by the way this is not SET IN STONE)


Here is the snow risk.

kleefarr

thetonynator wrote: »

My snow man!!!:D


Its not showing, sorry!!!

Did you see our snowman that I posted earlier?

WolfeIRE

a number of showers have appeared off the South East Coast in the past 15 mins according to rain today
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Sat 24 satellite has picked them up too
http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

met office has just confirmed it. Looks like a streamer for south wicklow/wexford.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

Darragh29

Folks that big blob that is currently over Scotland, does that not have the potential to cover the entire country in snow, the blob being bigger than our little island?!? Assuming of course that it landed at the centre of the country???

Scubadevils

jambofc wrote: »

i was thinking that this event might be a lot more to the east,looking at the chart's,but was afraid i would be laughed of the stage

wc,i think this could affect a lot of the midland's,what do you think?

I was just thinking the same looking at the satellite, it could hit more of the country than initially thought?

M.T. Cranium

Hello again, I had another look at this Thursday snow potential, can't say that it amounts to very much, but it may bring a covering to places that have not seen much yet (recently at least).

What we have is a rather weak wave on the arctic front which days ago pushed out to the west of Ireland and just stalled in the maritime north to northeast flow that has been endlessly circulating around the Greenland-Iceland high.

This wave only amounts to a 1022 mb feature with 5-10 knot wind field around it, so frontal mechanism will be weak. The track is predicted to be almost due south past the outer coasts of Galway (about 1500h) and Kerry (about 1800h), and in a few days this will be off Portugal spinning up a stronger low down there (won't be a factor in Ireland's weather at that point).

It seems likely that a double-wave structure will develop, one dropping south along the coast, a second and very weak feature forming north of Donegal and dropping south through west-central Ireland. Now, east of that wave, temperatures will not warm up very much due to the dense mass of cold air recently chilled by tonight's likely -8 C lows. There could be a weak and diffuse band of light snow running from north to south and including counties between around Roscommon to Tipps and Cork (petering out beyond Fermanagh to Laois). I wouldn't even try my hand at a map for this as I think it's going to be a patchy 2-3 cms here, trace-1 cm there sort of a business, with light winds and a sort of misty, foggy ambience to it. Further west, between the two wave tracks, the air may become warmer than 2-3 C in low elevations, at least briefly, in a very light SW wind that turns SE then NE, all of which may mean sleet, light hail, or cold rain, but not in very large quantities, 3-5 mms possibly. Higher hills in Galway and Mayo could see fresh falls of snow.

I don't see this reaching the east coast at all, but there is a second low moving south in the North Sea, so with a weak trough connecting the features, you can't rule out a brief flurry almost anywhere, in almost calm wind conditions.

As generally stated by other forecasters, Friday and Saturday, generally high pressure is too close and too strong for snow production and the bone-chilling overnight lows will become the bigger story.

Sunday, looks promising for locally heavy snow in the southeast and possibly even snow-starved south coast locations, the air will be very cold at higher levels and winds picking up to a 20-30 knot gradient from the ESE this time, so streamers would form south of Wales and head for Wexford and south Wicklow, possibly weaker features in sync near Dublin and even near Waterford and Cork. Although a few places could see 10-20 cms from this activity, 3-5 cms might be a reasonable guess for potential in general. It won't be as likely north of Dublin but sometimes Co. Down gets hit pretty well with this wind direction too.

Looks to me as though the following week could see slight moderation in temperatures. But I am not totally convinced this is the case yet.

ninebeanrows

Felixdhc wrote: »

I was just thinking the same looking at the satellite, it could hit more of the country than initially thought?

Well its hard to pinpoint where the actual precipn from the feature will be, we are just seeing the high level cloud formations. So im unsure, i am just comparing it to cloud cover forecasts from UK meso and i would reckon it is further east by maybe 50/100 miles but i could easily be wrong.

Hopefully the 18z will clear things up and we will get and 18z UK meso update.

thetonynator

kleefarr wrote: »

Did you see our snowman that I posted earlier?

No . . .what number post was it??? I'll go look for it . . .;)

snaps

owenc wrote: »

can someone like draw out a map of the first band coming to ni tonight please tis is rather confusing!

What band? U2, Take that, west life? No band coming into NI as far as i know!

kleefarr

thetonynator wrote: »

No . . .what number post was it??? I'll go look for it . . .;)

It was back in the old thread.

Here's a link...

Snow show

ninebeanrows

-5c in Dublin Airport at 20:30

WolfeIRE

better view of those streamers in irish sea

ffarrell

Charts like to today suggest very heavy falls from North DUBLIN down to Parts of Wexdford. In any case heavy snow showers for Dublin, Wicklow and parts of Wexford.:D:D:D:D:D

Scubadevils

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Hello again, I had another look at this Thursday snow potential, can't say that it amounts to very much, but it may bring a covering to places that have not seen much yet (recently at least).

What we have is a rather weak wave on the arctic front which days ago pushed out to the west of Ireland and just stalled in the maritime north to northeast flow that has been endlessly circulating around the Greenland-Iceland high.

This wave only amounts to a 1022 mb feature with 5-10 knot wind field around it, so frontal mechanism will be weak. The track is predicted to be almost due south past the outer coasts of Galway (about 1500h) and Kerry (about 1800h), and in a few days this will be off Portugal spinning up a stronger low down there (won't be a factor in Ireland's weather at that point).

It seems likely that a double-wave structure will develop, one dropping south along the coast, a second and very weak feature forming north of Donegal and dropping south through west-central Ireland. Now, east of that wave, temperatures will not warm up very much due to the dense mass of cold air recently chilled by tonight's likely -8 C lows. There could be a weak and diffuse band of light snow running from north to south and including counties between around Roscommon to Tipps and Cork (petering out beyond Fermanagh to Laois). I wouldn't even try my hand at a map for this as I think it's going to be a patchy 2-3 cms here, trace-1 cm there sort of a business, with light winds and a sort of misty, foggy ambience to it. Further west, between the two wave tracks, the air may become warmer than 2-3 C in low elevations, at least briefly, in a very light SW wind that turns SE then NE, all of which may mean sleet, light hail, or cold rain, but not in very large quantities, 3-5 mms possibly. Higher hills in Galway and Mayo could see fresh falls of snow.

I don't see this reaching the east coast at all, but there is a second low moving south in the North Sea, so with a weak trough connecting the features, you can't rule out a brief flurry almost anywhere, in almost calm wind conditions.

As generally stated by other forecasters, Friday and Saturday, generally high pressure is too close and too strong for snow production and the bone-chilling overnight lows will become the bigger story.

Sunday, looks promising for locally heavy snow in the southeast and possibly even snow-starved south coast locations, the air will be very cold at higher levels and winds picking up to a 20-30 knot gradient from the ESE this time, so streamers would form south of Wales and head for Wexford and south Wicklow, possibly weaker features in sync near Dublin and even near Waterford and Cork. Although a few places could see 10-20 cms from this activity, 3-5 cms might be a reasonable guess for potential in general. It won't be as likely north of Dublin but sometimes Co. Down gets hit pretty well with this wind direction too.

Looks to me as though the following week could see slight moderation in temperatures. But I am not totally convinced this is the case yet.

Thanks MT, not what I want to hear re Sunday but what can ya do...

I really need to sell my house and move to somewhere in Wicklow. Anyone got any indications as to when the recession will end?!

thetonynator

kleefarr wrote: »

It was back in the old thread.

Here's a link...

Snow show

Very impressive!!!

I did put a hat and scarf on mine afterwards, but i think yours is still better . . .

Pangea

owenc wrote: »

ok thanks again will be hoping we get some significant snow out of this as 2 inches of here have been crap i want 6 inches lol! how much can we expect out of this btw i am about 5-10 miles from antrim so i am not really in antrim! but near

I dont know owen, u might be a little too far east in Co. Derry to get the snow tommorrow, but who knows im no expert.

Slippin Jimmy

kleefarr wrote: »

It was back in the old thread.

Here's a link...

Snow show

Love your snowman. Myself and the gf tryed to make one earlier, but the snow was very fine and wasn't really sticking. Pity, I never really made one before.

glossy

ffarrell wrote: »

Charts like to today suggest very heavy falls from North DUBLIN down to Parts of Wexdford. In any case heavy snow showers for Dublin, Wicklow and parts of Wexford.:D:D:D:D:D

what more snow for us when?