Potential Snowfall & Cold Spell Discussion (Wednesday/Thursday 30/12/09)

Cosmo Kramer

Nothing much further from the Eagle there now in his late night forecast - other than he clarified his 'longest cold snap since, well, I down know when' comment to 'well, 20 or 30 years anyway'.

He thinks there is a good possibility for waking up to snow in the morning everywhere inland apart from Ulster, but he's still hedging a bit and saying it might be just too warm.

Tonight, for once, ME seem to largely agree with boards on their forecast.

He must be due a day off soon, he's overworked the poor fella - when's Evelyn back?

Gonzo

if the snow showers dont form this Thursday and Friday in the Irish Sea onto Eastern counties I think i'll throw my hat at this cold spell.

cocoemma

Yes Thanks frost fares ha ha I was kinda close

McConkey

6 miles SW of Ennis here and not a flake seen all day long....almost at sea level here though.

Only about 20/25 min drive from WolfeIRE here too

HashSlinging

HashSlinging wrote: »

temp after dropping big time in Rathdrum, supercell are you about to verify! :cool:

Heres his weather site.
Dew point is way too high for snow there yet.The rh modification over the irish sea is doing the damage.

http://www.annamoe.net/daily.htm

cocoemma

I'll eat your hat gonzo if it doesn't snow...

mickger

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I can tell you now that the M2 buoy off the Dublin coast was in the 6.0-6.5 Celcius range this morning when I checked it first. It fell to about 5.5-6.0 during the day (can't remember exact figures) and on the last check at 11pm, it was at 6.3 Celcius again:rolleyes:

This is looking like a non-event for all of leinster that's not at >250 metres elevation. A risk of flooding is still an ongoing concern however.

No snow until Thursday morning perhaps?

I agree, plain and simple the cold is just not there for snow. Its too mild.

WolfeIRE

McConkey wrote: »

6 miles SW of Ennis here and not a flake seen all day long....almost at sea level here though.

Only about 20/25 min drive from WolfeIRE here too

incredible. sorry for you McConkey. You will get snow by the morning.

nacho libre

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Nothing much further from the Eagle there now in his late night forecast - other than he clarified his 'longest cold snap since, well, I down know when' comment to 'well, 20 or 30 years anyway'.

He thinks there is a good possibility for waking up to snow in the morning everywhere inland apart from Ulster, but he's still hedging a bit and saying it might be just too warm.

Tonight, for once, ME seem to largely agree with boards on their forecast.

He must be due a day off soon, he's overworked the poor fella - when's Evelyn back?

she was on the radio tonight doing her bit for snow lovers across this island:)

Shane Slv

McConkey wrote: »

6 miles SW of Ennis here and not a flake seen all day long....almost at sea level here though.

Only about 20/25 min drive from WolfeIRE here too

where abouts in clare are ya ?

ninebeanrows

Gonzo wrote: »

if the snow showers dont form this Thursday and Friday in the Irish Sea onto Eastern counties I think i'll throw my hat at this cold spell.

Dont think you'll have the option to throw your hat at this cold spell! It seems like it wants to go on and on!

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I can tell you now that the M2 buoy off the Dublin coast was in the 6.0-6.5 Celcius range this morning when I checked it first. It fell to about 5.5-6.0 during the day (can't remember exact figures) and on the last check at 11pm, it was at 6.3 Celcius again:rolleyes:

This is looking like a non-event for all of leinster that's not at >250 metres elevation. A risk of flooding is still an ongoing concern however.

No snow until Thursday morning perhaps?

Untill the airmass changes and it has to back north east to do that.
Our source is just not cold enough to withstand the mixing over the irish sea.
It takes 60 miles or more than 1000ft in height or an in between combination to nullify the modding and regain snow conditions it would seem.

Bring on the full airmass change..!

WolfeIRE

Shane Slv wrote: »

where abouts in clare are ya ?

it's on my profile on left. i guess you are out ballyea/darragh direction? EDIT: Sorry Shane. I misread that.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

Dont think you'll have the option to throw your hat at this cold spell! It seems like it wants to go on and on!

sweet but 7 days out we'll end up with another feckin northwesterly probably and then a ridge in the wrong place:rolleyes:

McConkey

Shane Slv wrote: »

where abouts in clare are ya ?

Ballyea (the one near Clarecastle )

Was in Galway city earlier so got to see lots of snow....it was damp snow though....not as good as the Connolly stuff looks in the pics and certainly not as deep

mickger

Looking at the latest radar from metuk it seems the belt of precipitation is breaking up the further north it gets. Check it out here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

WolfeIRE

McConkey wrote: »

Ballyea (the one near Clarecastle )

Was in Galway city earlier so got to see lots of snow....it was damp snow though....not as good as the Connolly stuff looks in the pics and certainly not as deep

you are more or less at sea level there McConkey. The latest charts show precip continuing over Clare until late tomorrow and I am certain you will see snow between now and then. Any idea if it has snowed back Kildysart/Ballynacally direction?

Su Campu

mickger wrote: »

Looking at the latest radar from metuk it seems the belt of precipitation is breaking up the further north it gets. Check it out here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

Bloody Shannon radar - not worth a sh*te! :mad:

WolfeIRE

mickger wrote: »

Looking at the latest radar from metuk it seems the belt of precipitation is breaking up the further north it gets. Check it out here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

the shannon radar has gone offline Mick so it is not an accurate picture. The line from Sligo to Dublin continues more or less straight down to South Galway to Kerry respectively

nacho libre

i'll give the snow patrol another hour then i'm hitting the sac:P

mickger

WolfeIRE wrote: »

the shannon radar has gone offline Mick so it is not an accurate picture. The line from Sligo to Dublin continues more or less straight down to South Galway to Kerry respectively

I could be wrong but looking at what we can see even without the shannon radar the belt is not as organised as it was.

McConkey

WolfeIRE wrote: »

you are more or less at sea level there McConkey. The latest charts show precip continuing over Clare until late tomorrow and I am certain you will see snow between now and then. Any idea if it has snowed back Kildysart/Ballynacally direction?

Haven't heard to be honest though nothing of note in Lisheen a few miles (ca. 3) west of here earlier anyway-also at sea level

Deep Easterly

Still light rain/drizzle here. 2.1c although rh is dropping a little, down to 93% from a high of 94%.

JMSE

'82 event in Dunboyne Meath started with a swollen and burst river, then an afternoon and night of drifting snow followed by a deep freeze for 2 or 3 days. The result for me was a flood plain frozen solid with about 6 inches of ice ... in our back garden and the field beside, and drifts as high as a man. Nothing can ever top that.

As for similarities with this event, 1st instalment (rain) is now in place.....

WolfeIRE

mickger wrote: »

I could be wrong but looking at what we can see even without the shannon radar the belt is not as organised as it was.

it has weakened in intensity certainly but that could and will most likely change as the cold influence to the NE and E mixes with the front. It is increasingly likely that South Galway, Clare, North Kerry, Limerick, North Cork and North Tipp will see the most of any snow that falls on the fronts retreat southwards. That, of course, does not rule out snow elsewhere but precipitation amounts will be relatively small in comparison. The bottom line is that snow showers can be expected along the east and north coast on thursday and along the NW, N and E coast on Friday. Snow showers will appear along the the NW, N and NE coast on Sat and to a lesser degree on Sunday. Showers will also drift on to the Mayo and Galway coast on these days. Severe overnight frosts from thursday onwards will further compound problems for people living in areas where snow is lying.

After that it is very unclear although the indications are that the cold spell will this still be around this time next week at least. There are also indications, stretching back to Sunday, that the 4/5th will see another organised front push northwards from the south of Ireland. If that happens then more widespread snow is likely as the colder airmass will already be in place unlike the last 24 hrs where it has been a constant struggle for the colder airmass to break down and influence of the front we are now seeing.

By the way, Shannon radar is back up and the midwest is still getting the bulk of precip http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/. It is bucketing down again here

Mothman

Deleted User wrote: »

sweet but 7 days out we'll end up with another feckin northwesterly probably and then a ridge in the wrong place:rolleyes:

Take a sleep to restore your faith

Mothman

Precipitation totals for yesterday, 29th Dec
Valentia 38mm
Cork AP 26mm
Johnstown Castle 26mm
Casement 23mm
Shannon AP 18mm

Meanwhile its highest temp since 3pm
4.6C Dp2.7C dry atm

Shane Slv

the post was actually ment for McConkey, but am im just outside newmarket. Between ennis and shannon

lucernarian

I'm off to bed with a happy comment - well for me anyway:pac:

I noticed on the 9.30pm forecast this evening that the isobars on the chart for Thursday pretty much drew a line from Carlisle in the UK to Drogheda. A pretty decent sea fetch methinks:D

Repeat of January 2008?

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

it has weakened in intensity certainly but that could and will most likely change as the cold influence to the NE and E mixes with the front. It is increasingly likely that South Galway, Clare, North Kerry, Limerick, North Cork and North Tipp will see the most of any snow that falls on the fronts retreat southwards. That, of course, does not rule out snow elsewhere but precipitation amounts will be relatively small in comparison. e

for purely selfish reasons i would prefer Evelyn's radio forecast at five to 12 to be correct. although given there is still only light rain here now i don't have much confidence in her forecast being right.