Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 22-04-2011 6:43am

Friday, 22 April, 2011
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TODAY ... Warm and humid with scattered showers or outbreaks of thundery rain, generally not too heavy or prolonged, but there could be a more sustained downpour in western Connacht this afternoon. As a result, rainfalls generally 2-5 mms but potentially 5-15 mms in western Connacht. Highs 17-21 deg C and winds SSE veering SW 15-25 mph. Some eastern locations could avoid most or all of this shower activity and remain largely dry. Sunshine will not be too frequent but will feel subtropical when it does occur.

TONIGHT ... Misty, turning foggy especially south, periods of rain redeveloping across the south after midnight, 5-10 mms expected there, just drizzle elsewhere, lows 10-14 C.

SATURDAY ... Rain continuing at times in the east, fog lifting slowly elsewhere to reveal brighter skies and eventually some sunny intervals (fog may however persist near some western coastlines). Not quite as warm, highs 14-17 C.

EASTER SUNDAY ... A cooler morning than recently (briefly cold around 0600h with lows near 2-5 C in rural areas) ... sunshine from early morning and pleasantly warm mid-day, clouding over later with some light rain spreading into the west by late in the day. Highs 14-17 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, chance of some heavier showers at times, possibly thundery, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Some warmer sunshine, highs 18-21 C, returning mid-week then intervals of sustained and possibly heavy rainfall later in the week towards the weekend of 30 April to 1 May, with temperatures becoming steady in the range of 12-14 C. The first week of May looks fresher and possibly quite a bit cooler as more of a west to northwest flow develops.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Yet another severe storm producing frontal system is gearing up tonight and Friday over Kansas and Oklahoma. Some tornado and hail storms are likely there later today, and much warmer air is pushing north into the central plains states ahead of the front, with rain spreading across the upper Midwest towards the Great Lakes. It remains rather chilly in the eastern states, but will warm up gradually through the weekend.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday 21st was cloudy with some sunny breaks, and cool, but mainly dry which itself was an improvement. Highs struggled to reach 9 or 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 23-04-2011 6:49am

Saturday, 23 April, 2011
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TODAY ... Rain will persist through the morning in the southeast, spreading north to Dublin and coastal Meath, east Ulster, and dropping 5-10 mms before a drying and then clearing trend mid-day. Further west, most of the day will be partly cloudy to sunny and dry, but there could be brief isolated showers in Mayo and Donegal (trace to 1 mm likely there) ... for most, a fresher day with lower humidity and highs 14-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, mist patches developing, rather chilly with a slight risk of isolated frost, lows mainly 3-6 C.

EASTER SUNDAY ... A bright start with plenty of sunshine likely in the east and south, clouding over during the morning in the west with occasional showers or drizzle to follow, but evening sunny breaks behind this weak front too ... rainfalls only about 1-2 mms at most, not likely to reach the east or south at all ... highs 14-17 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, drizzle or light rain in some areas, rather chilly compared to the past week, lows near 5 C and highs 12-15 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, slight risk of showers but mainly a dry day for most, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... More sunshine than cloud mid-week, near normal temperatures in a moderate easterly flow. Cloudy towards the end of the week, humid, outbreaks of rain that could become rather heavy in the south. Warmer again for a day or two in early May before a colder trend sets in on northwest winds.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... As expected, another major severe storm outbreak on Good Friday across parts of Oklahoma, Missouri and Illinois, spreading into Kentucky. I have just scanned the reports and thankfully the death or injury toll seems rather low (so far). Very warm and humid air has spread across the southeast, but rain further north is keeping temperatures near 15 C in the northeast states. Sunny and getting slightly milder in the far west.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... We enjoyed some slightly warmer sunshine on Friday and should get a repeat on Saturday under high pressure. The high on Friday was about 16 C but it became quite chilly as soon as the sun went down as the humidity is very low, some scattered frost may occur outside the city.

M.T. Cranium · 24-04-2011 7:12am

Sunday, 24 April, 2011
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TODAY ... Some sunny breaks through layers of high or middle cloud in eastern and southern counties this morning, while a weak front drifts across the west and north, bringing some showers or periods of drizzly light rain ... this front may not produce rain everywhere and will break apart further by afternoon, making for a few sunny intervals almost everywhere at times ... highs 14-17 C and rainfalls generally trace to 2 mms.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few spots of rain or drizzle in places, but also a few clear intervals ... lows 4-8 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, spotty light rain or drizzle possible but very little accumulation likely ... highs 13-15 C.

TUESDAY ... Similar to Monday with lows 4-8 C and highs 13-15 C but probably more sun than cloud by afternoon.

OUTLOOK ... Sunny intervals mid to late week in a fairly mild to warm east to southeast flow, highs 15-18 C and overnight lows rather variable depending on cloud cover but potentially giving a few isolated light ground frosts. ... By the following weekend, some potential for heavier showers or periods of rain, but also a bit warmer and more humid ... one or two very warm days to follow before a long, gradual cooling trend that at the moment seems to be pointing towards a colder period well into May.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The fronts stalled across the central and eastern U.S. leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms although not as severe in most cases as on Friday. This will continue today as a new disturbance moves along the front and intensifies. Cool and dry further north but with much of the snow melted (and flooding parts of the prairies) temperatures are now well above freezing to near 10-13 C. On the west coast, sunny and quite warm, clouding over Easter Sunday with rain to follow.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was gloriously sunny and warm (22 C for a high), which is ironic given how awful the weather has been here for many weeks now, but we'll take it. I mean, what choice do we have? :cool:

I hope you all have a happy Easter.

M.T. Cranium · 25-04-2011 6:46am

Monday, 25 April, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, but a few sunny intervals may develop this morning in the southeast, then by afternoon in Connacht. In between, the remnants of a dying front will produce some light rain or drizzle at times (trace to 2 mms all that is likely from this). Highs 14-16 C. Light northeast winds.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with patchy drizzle and mist, lows 7-9 C. If any clear intervals develop, it could become a bit colder (3-5 C locally).

TUESDAY ... Morning cloud and a little more patchy drizzle, but some longer sunny intervals possible by afternoon. Highs 15-17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine, with more cloud in the west and north, and possibly along the east coast. Winds east 10-20 mph creating chilly sea breezes in parts of coastal Leinster and Ulster. Otherwise highs may reach 15-18 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals each day, highs 17-20 C, although somewhat cooler near east and southeast coasts due to sea breezes in a moderate southeast wind. Nights rather chilly, mist patches, lows 3-6 C in rural areas.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Warm, humid, some outbreaks of heavier showers or thundery rain possible especially in south. Highs 17-21 C. Mild nights. This warmer spell may persist to about mid-week in early May before a somewhat colder trend sets in.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Continuing heavy showers and thunderstorms, not too severe in general, from Oklahoma northeast towards the Great Lakes. South of this front, warm to hot and humid, highs 27-30 C. North of the front, a cooler high brings temperatures near 13 C. Western regions cloudy with outbreaks of rain especially north of Portland Oregon.

A major severe weather outbreak seems likely later today and repeating on Tuesday in the central plains states.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Easter Sunday was cloudier with light rain, and highs of about 12 C. Expecting heavy showers on Monday.

This is part of our spring foliage display (but the picture was taken a year and a month ago, that's how much later this year's spring blooming has been):

M.T. Cranium · 26-04-2011 6:26am

Tuesday, 26 April, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy this morning with further light rain or drizzle becoming confined mostly to Munster and the southeast. Further rainfall amounts 2-4 mms in a few places. Sunshine may break through by late morning in the north and by afternoon in central counties, but it could stay cloudy all day in the south. Highs 13-17 C (warmest likely west-central) with moderate E-NE winds 15-25 mph at times this afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals developing, persistent cloud and some drizzle near south coast ... lows 3-7 C north and central to 7-10 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... More cloud than sunshine in west and south, with some drizzle or light showers possible, but better spells of sunshine in north and east with light to moderate east winds, highs 14-17 C.

THURSDAY ... Generally sunny with a few cloudy intervals, winds ENE 10-20 mph, lows near 5 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, warm, clouding over later in southeast, winds from the E-SE and lows near 5 C, highs near 18 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Warm and muggy with scattered showers or outbreaks of thundery rain at times, these more likely in the south as well as parts of east Ulster ... lows near 8 C and highs near 19 C. The rainfall potential is probably in the range of 10-20 mms but not likely to be observed everywhere.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Warm and dry for a while, but with a tendency to become more cloudy and cooler as east winds back more to N-NE later in the week ... the GFS model is actually showing quite cold weather around 8-9 May in a northerly flow. This is too far off to be overly reliable but something to check on.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms developed on Monday and moved slowly east through the central states. Very warm and humid further east although north of about Philadelphia, cloudy and rather cool in a southeast marine flow. Western states generally cool and cloudy with outbreaks of rain.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday 25th was a cloudy day with frequent showers, highs near 12 C. About 10-15 mms of rain fell, mostly this afternoon.

M.T. Cranium · 27-04-2011 6:45am

Wednesday, 27 April, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of light rain or showers in western counties, misty at first then partly cloudy, eventually becoming sunny at times further east, isolated showers possible. Rainfalls generally 2-4 mms in west only. Winds SE 10-20 mph, highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, some clear intervals with mist or fog patches developing, some drizzle may linger in northwest. Lows generally 3-7 C but could fall to near +1 C in central to southeast inland given any clear intervals. Winds falling off to calm most places.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy with some longer sunny intervals developing, a bit warmer especially for the west due to less cloud than today ... highs reaching 16-18 C in moderate southeast winds.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals in the morning mostly, clouding over gradually by afternoon, some showers developing by evening southern coastal counties ... lows near 4 C and highs near 17 C. Moderate east to southeast winds.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, some showers and risk of thundershowers, but also some sunny intervals, rainfalls likely to be 5-10 mms on average but mostly in southern half of country ... lows near 8 C and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, some sunshine, some showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 18 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY of NEXT WEEK ... In a strengthening easterly flow, warm at first but turning a little cooler each day, highs near 20 C at first then falling off to near 14 C and winds picking up to 20-30 mph, backing somewhat to E-NE and also risk of drizzle or light rain at times in eastern counties. The FURTHER OUTLOOK suggests a cool, cloudy finish to the week and some significant rainfalls around the next weekend with temperatures falling below normal for the first time in quite a while.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Tuesday was a stormy day in parts of the south central U.S. with numerous tornadoes in Arkansas and Texas, and some fatalities reported. This system is heading for the Great Lakes and Ohio valley and will be replaced with a brief interval of cooler, dry weather before a second severe weather event develops on the weekend. Western regions have remained rather unsettled and cool.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday (26th) was a partly cloudy day with several light showers but also some pleasant sunny intervals, highs near 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 28-04-2011 6:37am

Thursday, 28 April, 2011
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TODAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, mild or warm away from the south and east coasts where sea breezes may feel a bit chilly near shore ... highs generally 16-19 C but 13-15 C near east and southeast coasts, in moderate or light SE winds.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, rather chilly inland, lows dropping to the range of zero to +4 C in rural areas inland, 3-7 C elsewhere. Light winds, and some mist or fog patches developing by morning.

FRIDAY ... Morning sunshine, increasing cloud by mid-day east and afternoon further west, warm, highs 15-19 C. Winds E-SE 15-25 mph. Chance of showers in southeast by evening.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, mild to warm, muggy, some outbreaks of rain possible in southeast with slight chance of thunder (amounts 5-15 mms), dry in many other places though, lows near 7 C and highs near 18 C. Winds moderate SE to E at 15-25 mph daytime.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, muggy, lows near 8 C and highs near 17. Winds moderate easterly 15-25 mph daytime.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks, some outbreaks of rain especially in southern counties, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C. Winds easterly at about 20-30 mph.

OUTLOOK ... Variable cloud, breezy and turning somewhat cooler in stages, occasional drizzle or rain especially close to the Irish Sea due to east winds, highs next week in the 13-17 C range. Even cooler weather is possible by the following weekend.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The state of Mississippi (MS) has suffered some major tornadic storms on Wednesday with numerous casualties and major damage reported. These severe storms continue to move east through the southeast states followed by cooler, drier weather in the central states. It was cold and windy in the far west with heavy showers in places.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday 27th was a chilly, raw day with heavy showers (hail reported around the region) and highs only 7-8 C with gusty west to northwest winds at times. It felt more like February than late April.

:eek:

M.T. Cranium · 29-04-2011 6:26am

Friday, 29 April, 2011
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TODAY ... Sunny and warm in most places, somewhat cooler near the east and southeast coasts due to sea breezes as the southeast wind of 15-25 mph brings in cooler air ... but otherwise, highs 17-21 C (13-16 C coastal fringes). By afternoon, some increase in cloud in the southeast may lead to an isolated shower around Wexford or Wicklow.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, still rather clear in parts of the north, lows 4-8 C where clear, and 8-10 C further south. A few showers could brush the south coast especially towards morning.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy in the south with a few showers mainly near the south coast, partly cloudy further north, winds continuing ESE 15-25 mph, highs varying from 16-19 C west and northwest, to 14-17 C east and southeast.

SUNDAY ... Extensive cloud but still some sunny breaks, mainly in the north, intermittent rain making slow progress inland from the south coast (amounts likely to be 5-10 mms in places) and foggy at times there, morning lows generally 7-10 C and highs 14-17 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, outbreaks of moderate rain likely especially southern to central counties, winds ESE 20-30 mph, feeling rather raw and cold near the Irish Sea and not a lot warmer anywhere else (but more comfortable further west, probably) ... lows near 11 C and highs near 14 C, rainfalls 10-15 mms.

OUTLOOK ... Raw and chilly at times mid-week as winds continue to stream in from the east but now take on a slightly more ENE fetch bringing in much cooler air from the Baltic regions ... highs could be held down to 12-15 C with rain and drizzle, so quite a change in store possibly ... then the models diverge with some guidance suggesting a long cool spell with frequent rain, others saying a slow return to warmer and drier conditions. I tend to think it would be the first of these two but confidence is not very high on that.

Summer forecast will be issued on Monday, 2nd May here ... working on it this weekend ... think you may enjoy it (the forecast, and hopefully, the summer too.)

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Well, as you have heard on the news, Wednesday evening into the overnight hours brought a terrible outbreak of strong tornadic storms in Alabama (this was the extension of the system I mentioned having done a lot of damage in the neighbouring state of MS). Several F4 and possibly F5 storms were reported and these unfortunately hit large populated areas around Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. The overall death toll appears to be at least 300 and could end up higher. Storms continued into Georgia and Tennessee and even into southern Virginia before dying out Thursday morning. The flare-up later Thursday was much less intense and gave a few isolated storms in Florida and the northeast U.S. (the rest of the front had moved out to sea by then). A cooler air mass has replaced the humid air mass but another disturbance will form today in Arizona and move into New Mexico on Saturday. Although rather tame at first, this one may explode late Saturday in west central Texas into southern Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the weather on Thursday in western regions was rather cool and unsettled.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday 28th was a cool, partly cloudy day with a few showers and gusty westerly winds, highs 12-13 C. Snow levels are quite low and the north shore mountains (which appeared briefly through breaks in the cloud) appeared snow covered down to about 700m.

M.T. Cranium · 30-04-2011 6:27am

Saturday, 30 April, 2011
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This April, likely to register as the warmest on record in many parts of Ireland and the U.K., comes to an end today with one more reasonably warm day and some sunshine. After that, considerably more cloud and rain will develop across the south but remnants of the warm spell will be felt in the north especially in Connacht. Then, it appears that the warmth will gradually return, as some models with colder outcomes in about a week's time have begun to back away from that scenario.

TODAY ... Sunny intervals, but more cloud than recently in the southeast, with scattered showers or thundery rain outbreaks to follow ... winds ESE at about 10-20 mph inland and 20-40 mph near exposed coasts and on hills ... warm away from the cooler southeast coasts ... highs 17-20 C but 14-17 C in the southeast. Some rainfalls of 5-15 mms possible mainly around Waterford, Wexford, Wicklow, Carlow and some other parts of the south and east, mainly late afternoon to evening hours.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, mild, some outbreaks of rain or fog and drizzle across the south ... winds ESE 15-30 mph, lows 7-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals in Connacht mostly, scattered outbreaks of rain heavier in the south and southeast, 5-15 mms possible there, staying dry in some parts of the north. Winds E 20-30 mph, highs around 15-17 C north and 13-15 C south.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy, rather chilly with outbreaks of rain or drizzle heavier in the south, 10-20 mms possible there, winds E 20-40 mph, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C (feeling colder in the wind).

TUESDAY ... Further showers or periods of rain in moderate east winds, cool, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 to 14 C. Winds E 20-40 mph.

OUTLOOK ... Further showers at times, but winds a bit slacker by mid-week and then turning slightly milder again as winds veer more southeasterly. Highs towards 15-17 C by end of the week. There is still some slight chance of a colder outbreak developing but this is phasing out of most model forecasts.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Friday was mild and sunny across many parts of the east, with warmer air moving back into Texas. Hot and dry across the desert southwest and west Texas (highs to 40 C in places). Cool and variable across the northwest U.S. into central western Canada, with a snowstorm developing eastern Montana and southern Saskatchewan moving towards western North Dakota and western Manitoba for Saturday. Even though it's flooding near Winnipeg, late Saturday could bring blizzard conditions with that flooding reaching a crest.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday 29th was a sunny day with frequent cloudy intervals, cool, highs near 12 C, in a northerly flow. Frosts tonight as the skies clear.

M.T. Cranium · 01-05-2011 7:29am

Sunday, 1 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with showers or outbreaks of thundery rain at times in the south, with some northward spread to about south Clare across to Wicklow by afternoon. Rainfall amounts 5-15 mms. Highs near 15 C in the rain and winds ESE 20-35 mph (gusty at times, slack at other times). Further north, brighter intervals and some sun for parts of Ulster, also a bit warmer with highs 16-18 C. Breezy here also, SE 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Further outbreaks of thundery rain likely, 10-20 mms possible, mostly in the same southern counties as today but with some northward spread later, winds continuing SE 15-30 mph and lows 8-11 C. Fog on hills and misty at lower elevations by later tonight.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with showers, and some intervals of heavier thundery rain by afternoon. Potential for 15-30 mms of rain in some parts of the south. Rain will spread to the north during the day. Winds ESE 20-40 mph and chilly with highs only 12-15 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, cool and windy (SE 15-30 mph) with lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. Rainfall potential 5-15 mms.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Milder again and humid, SE to S winds at 15-30 mph, foggy at times, showery but also some dry intervals and limited amounts of sunshine. Lows generally 6-8 C and highs 15-17 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... A few severe storms in Arkansas and Texas on Saturday, but so far not too major, potential for a meso-scale thunderstorm complex over Texas later tonight (local time) ... hot and dry further west but cool and dry to the north of a sagging front now located in west Texas and southern New Mexico. This cooler air mass has settled into most of central and western North America with a small but powerful snowstorm pushing northeast across North Dakota into Manitoba at this time, spreading as much as 15-30 cms of snow on strong northerly winds. Meanwhile, the east is generally warm and showery.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a sunny day with considerable cloud off to the north, where it looked rather showery. This cloud began to break up late afternoon and it remained dry here. Highs were about 14 C.

My summer outlook will be posted with the forecast on Monday morning.

M.T. Cranium · 02-05-2011 5:58am

Monday, 2 May, 2011
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Summer outlook -- In general, expect a reasonably warm and dry to near normal summer (this would apply to the months June to September, and also to "astronomical summer" 21 June to 21 Sept). There will be intervals of very warm, dry weather at times, separated by periods that are close to normal in temperature with more frequent rainfall. It is not expected to become oppressively warm or hot for long periods, but there could be a few hot days. The trend from June to August is likely to be a drying trend. Now, as the current conditions are quite dry in the north especially, what this means is that May will bring somewhat more normal rainfalls and so will June, so this current drought should ease although not likely totally erased. Then a somewhat drier trend will return, and this applies to north and south. This dry trend is likely to continue into September.

For those who would like numbers more than words, this prediction would expect June to be about 0.5 to 1.0 C deg above average with near normal rainfall; July about zero to 0.5 C deg above average with 80-100% of normal rainfall, and August about 0.7 to 1.4 C deg above average with 60-80% of normal rainfall. This August trend should be continued in September.

This appears likely to be another rather active tropical storm season in the North Atlantic so there is likely a higher than random chance of a brush with one remnant storm system most likely in September or October.

While these comments are meant to be quite general, local storms can always develop within this pattern and be quite notable for small areas. The pattern I foresee for this summer is not particularly "potent" for severe storm development but a long-range forecast really cannot hope to predict that sort of detail months in advance.

Although I don't expect a major heat wave like that experienced in August 2003 or July 2006, this summer does show a little higher than average on a heat wave index from analogues, so I would not want to rule out that chance, but would rate it as about one in five (random might be more like one in ten).

I will probably post this summer outlook in a separate thread later today, so would ask if people might address comments or questions to that thread rather than to this daily forecast thread. Thanks. I may try to give some details in that thread not mentioned in this outlook forecast, from my research.

Today's forecasts

TODAY ... Cloudy with showers, and some intervals of heavier thundery rain especially around Cork and south Kerry. Potential for 15-30 mms of rain in some parts of the south, and 5-10 mms of rain likely across central counties but trace to 3 mms north. Rain will spread northward during the day, but may not arrive in Ulster or northern parts of Connacht or Leinster, at least until evening if at all. Winds ESE 20-40 mph and chilly in the rain with highs only 12-15 C. Highs may reach 15-17 C in some inland parts of the north where a few sunny breaks are possible despite extensive cloud.

TONIGHT ... Further rain in the south and west mostly, lows near 7 C, winds ESE 15-30 mph, some rainfalls of 3-7 mms.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, cool and windy (SE 15-30 mph) with lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. Rainfall potential 5-15 mms. Rain may not reach all parts of the north especially east Ulster.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Milder again and humid, SE to S winds at 15-30 mph, foggy at times, showery but also some dry intervals and limited amounts of sunshine. Lows generally 6-8 C and highs 15-17 C. Expect a rather general rainfall of 10-20 mms mid-week (Wed night into Thursday morning most likely).

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Widespread storms although not a huge severe outbreak this time, from east Texas to the Tennessee valley. South of that front, hot and humid (highs near 30 C). North of the front and west into much of Texas, far cooler than yesterday and also below normal, highs only about 10-13 C in strong northerly winds. This cool air had its source over fresh snow dropped by low pressure now moving away from Lake Superior towards Hudson Bay. Dry and somewhat warmer on the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny and pleasantly warm, highs near 16 C on Sunday. Clouding over for scattered showers on Monday (which is not a holiday here but is election day across Canada).

M.T. Cranium · 03-05-2011 6:54am

Tuesday, 3 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy in most parts of Ireland, but with partly cloudy skies in the north and east at times. Light rain here and there in western counties and a few further showers possible in the south, amounts today rather light (1-3 mms generally), winds SE 15-30 mph. Highs 13-16 C with the warmer readings in Ulster, inland Leinster and much of Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals, lows 5-9 C, although longer clear intervals in Ulster could allow much lower temperatures in a few spots, to about 2-3 C. Some light showers may continue near the west coast with a steady drizzle developing later. Winds SE 15-30 mph near coasts and on higher terrain, otherwise 5-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, mild and humid, with rain moving into the west, making slow eastward progress and giving 5-15 mms of rain in parts of Connacht. It may take some time for this rain to overspread all areas currently experiencing fire problems but this should be complete by Wednesday night. Amounts may be sufficient to give firefighters a significant boost, but more will be coming along later. Highs for the day 14-17 C, winds SSE 20-30 mph with some higher gusts.

THURSDAY ... Periods of rain tapering to showers, some sunny intervals by afternoon, winds southerly 15-30 mph, mild and humid. Lows near 11 C and highs near 16 C. Average rainfalls 10-20 mms.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, mild and in some places foggy, southerly winds 15-30 mph. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C. Average rainfalls 3-7 mms.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Breezy, mild and humid, periods of rain (20-40 mms potential in some places) and gusty SSE winds. Highs near 15 C but could rise higher in some inland counties if the sun breaks through persistent low cloud.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Drying out again gradually with rather warm temperatures returning, highs could be into the low 20s at times (the once advertised colder interval has now vanished from the models altogether).

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Heavy showers and thunderstorms moving gradually east through the southeast states overnight and on Tuesday, some severe storms likely in areas ravaged by tornadoes last week. These won't be as severe but not very welcome in the ongoing recovery efforts. The northeast will be wet and mild, but central regions will be cool and dry. The west has turned wet and cool again.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with periods of rain, highs near 11 C on Monday.

I have now opened up a thread to discuss the summer outlook and welcome alternate views, so I hope you will post your thoughts on the summer there.

M.T. Cranium · 04-05-2011 6:59am

Wednesday, 4 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain developing from west to east, but remaining dry in Ulster and northeast Leinster until mid-afternoon. Rainfalls of 5-15 mms heavier in Connacht, winds SSE 15-30 mph, rather cool and humid with highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, showers or drizzle, fog patches forming, further outbreaks of moderate or even heavy rain in west later, winds SSE 20-35 mph in exposed locations, lows 9-12 C. Rainfalls 5-15 mms, heavier in west after midnight.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, rather warm and humid as winds veer SSW 15-30 mph, heavy showers and chance of thundershowers, rainfalls 10-20 mms with heaviest likely around east Galway, Mayo, into west Ulster. Highs 15 to 17 C.

FRIDAY ... Not much change with cloud, mist or fog, outbreaks of rain or showers, brief sunny breaks, and winds staying southerly 15-30 mph, rather warm and humid with lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy, breezy to windy (SE 20-40 mph) and wet in many places with persistent rain, 15-30 mms possible. Some local flooding quite likely in southern inland counties (soil moisture has already been replenished in some of the southern districts and so this excess rain will flood more readily here than over presently dry areas). Lows near 8 C and highs near 15.

SUNDAY ... Little change, cloudy, windy (SE 20-40 mph), showery. Lows near 8 C and highs about 16 C. Potential for 10-20 mms further rain.

OUTLOOK ... The moist and unstable southeast flow should gradually veer more southerly again and conditions will slowly improve with rather warm temperatures at first, followed by a cooling trend.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Showers are moving off the east coast overnight and clearing will follow with much cooler temperatures. Cool, dry air covers many parts of the central U.S. with somewhat warmer air returning today in southerly winds, clouds and showers, but the next major severe outbreak seems several days away. Rather cool and variable across the west.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Today (Tues 3rd) was partly cloudy to sunny with gusty W-NW winds and rather chilly in the breeze, 10 C at mid-afternoon. Nice out of the wind.

M.T. Cranium · 05-05-2011 7:49am

Thursday, 5 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with outbreaks of heavy showery rain, some thunder possible too, heaviest across western counties with 10-20 mms generally there, and 5-15 mms further east ... winds S 15-30 mph ... highs 14-17 C.

TONIGHT ... More showers likely with fog developing, winds S 15-30 mph and lows around 10-12 C with potential for 5-15 mms further rainfall.

FRIDAY ... Some longer dry intervals developing in the west, morning showers may be heavy at times in the east but the partly cloudy regime spreading east later, winds S 15-30 mph with some higher gusts and highs 16-18 C. Rainfalls generally 5-10 mms. Heavy rain may develop by evening in the southwest.

SATURDAY ... Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times, southerly winds at about 20-35 mph, lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C. Rainfalls of 15-30 mms possible. Some local flooding likely in southern counties inland.

SUNDAY ... Further rain, strong winds developing from the SE veering more to S'ly late in the day, potential for 20 mms or more, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C. Winds may gust to 50 mph later in the southwest.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, showery, gusty winds at first, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Gradual improvement, a little cooler at night, but with a warm spell developing later in the week on southeast winds. Highs could be back into the low 20s within a week of this weekend.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Dry and relatively cool in most of the eastern U.S., showery in a few places near the Great Lakes. Warming up in a dry south to southwest flow of desert origins in Texas and the southern plains.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wed 4th was a pleasant day, with considerable high cloud but sunshine casting weak shadows most of the time, and rather warm (high was about 17 C).

Let's hope this rain totally suppresses the fires before the next warming trend sets in.

M.T. Cranium · 06-05-2011 5:40am

Friday, 6 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny in most areas as showers move away from the east coast this morning, but some afternoon showers or intervals of light rain may develop across the west. Winds S 15-30 mph ... rather warm and humid ... highs 16-19 C (may stay 13-15 C south coast in sea breezes).

TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of thundery rain possible, 5-15 mms including the afternoon showers, mild and humid with southerly winds 15-30 mph, lows around 11-12 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud but mostly overcast, outbreaks of rain, although heavier at times south and east, winds backing S to SE and freshening to 20-40 mph. Highs 14-17 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mms.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy, breezy to windy, periods of rain or thundershowers, lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C. Rainfalls of 15-30 mms possible, some flooding likely in poorly drained areas of south, central counties. Winds SE 20-40 mph increasing to SSW 30-55 mph (higher gusts possible west coast to 65 mph).

MONDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showery, windy at first, SW 30-50 mph, lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C. Rainfalls of 5-10 mms. Some clearing possible later in the day.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C in moderate westerly winds.

OUTLOOK ... There is now some doubt that warmer weather will develop right away and there may be a period of cool, cloudy and showery conditions as the wind stays in a west to northwest flow.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Showers moving through the western Great Lakes today but not much intensity to this front, slightly warmer ahead of the front and to the south of a trough in Oklahoma and north Texas. Eventually turning hot and dry in these areas. Gusty winds and showers over the Rockies, turning much colder in Montana and Alberta, eastern British Columbia as strong low pressure develops over Wyoming. Some snow at higher elevations in these regions.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday (5th) was cloudy and a bit cooler than Wednesday with spits of light rain and highs around 13-14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 07-05-2011 6:20am

Saturday, 7 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, scattered outbreaks of light rain becoming heavier at times by afternoon, some thunder associated, winds SE 15-30 mph, rather warm and humid away from south coast, highs 15-18 C. Rainfalls generally about 5-10 mms.

TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of rain and fog with steady southeast winds 15-30 mph, 5-10 mms of rain, lows 10-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing southerly winds and showers or periods of rain, some heavy, but also some brighter intervals, winds S 20-40 mph increasing to 30-55 mph by late day ... highs 13-16 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mms.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... Windy with showers, lows near 12 C, winds veering slightly to SSW 35-55 mph (highest gusts west coast shifting to Connacht by morning). Further rainfalls 5-10 mms.

MONDAY ... Breezy, humid with rain or showers, winds SW 20-40 mph, easing later, highs near 15 C, rainfalls 5-15 mms.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, breezy, lows near 8 C and highs about 14 C, winds SW 15-30 mph. About 5 mms of rain generally.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat unsettled but longer dry intervals as winds continue from a westerly direction, temperatures staying in the mid-teens by day and 5-8 C overnight. Indications of warmer weather now delayed to the following week.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Friday brought some light showers to parts of the eastern states but in general it was dry and rather cool across the north-central U.S., hot and dry in parts of Texas and New Mexico, and this warmth is spreading into Colorado and Kansas ahead of developing strong low pressure expected to stall over Wyoming this weekend. Snow will develop over higher parts of the northwest states and inland B.C. and Alberta although valley temperatures are mild enough for rain showers.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday 6th was a cloudy, rather cool day with rain arriving late afternoon and continuing at present. Highs near 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 08-05-2011 6:35am

Sunday, 8 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Heavy rain across Ulster parts of north Leinster will become intermittent and will be followed by some scattered thundery showers later this morning ... some brighter intervals will follow there as a dry "slot" rotates north across Ireland bringing with it some sunny breaks ... that dry interval will be followed by cloud and outbreaks of heavy rain and some thunder, spreading into the southwest this morning, and into most of the western, central and southeast counties by afternoon. Winds will be moderate SE'ly at 20-35 mph until late today when they may veer more S or SSW and strengthen to 30-50 mph. Rainfalls with the leading front in the north have already produced 20-30 mms in places and may give 10-15 mms further. The next wave has potential for 5-15 mms generally and 15-25 mms in some parts of Kerry, Cork, Limerick and Clare. Spot flooding is possible especially in Kerry and Cork. Highs today will be 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with intervals of rain, some thunder, and gusty southerly winds reaching 35-55 mph west, 25-40 mph eastern counties. Further rainfalls of 10-15 mms likely. Lows near 10 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of rain, some heavy at times, and a few thundershowers. Becoming more showery later with brighter intervals spreading into the southwest. Winds SW 20-40 mph. Highs 13-15 C west and 14-16 C east.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, cool, breezy (WSW 20-30 mph), lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, just a few isolated showers in Connacht, breezy (W 20-30 mph), lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Relatively dry although rather cloudy at times later this week, continued breezy from the west ... the following weekend may become more showery again ... temperatures generally near normal with highs 13-15 C. Little or no chance of frost but lows sometimes falling to 3-5 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Systems are slowing down to a crawl, and the dominant feature is strong low pressure in Wyoming. To the west and north of that, showery at low elevations, with mountain snow, and chilly. Across the southwest, south central and central plains regions, warm to hot and dry, highs today likely to be 35-40 C in much of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, and 30-35 C in Colorado and Nebraska. Further east, outbreaks of thundery rain moving towards Washington DC in a rather weak frontal wave, cool with northeast winds further north. The hot, dry air mass is also spreading into the southeast states on westerly winds. While it's rather humid there, humidity levels are not excessive and the weather is settled.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, some rain at times, cool ... highs on Saturday about 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 08-05-2011 11:37pm

UPDATE _ Sunday, 11:30 p.m.
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Radar and public reports suggest that rainfalls of 20-40 mms could be recorded overnight in parts of Cork and Limerick counties from a frontal system slowly moving in a NNE'ly direction. Watch for flooding of low-lying areas and some lightning and hail, gusts to 50 mph, with this. Further north (Clare, Galway, Mayo) in the same band, potential for 15-30 mms and similar risks. This feature will probably weaken slowly overnight as it moves north and northeast ... Waterford, Tipps, Laois, Offaly, Westmeath, Longford, parts of west Ulster could see the later phases of this heavy rainfall and pick up 10-20 mms.

M.T. Cranium · 09-05-2011 6:31am

Monday, 9 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, although some brief sunny intervals this morning in the east ... heavy showers and a few thundershowers with hail in many central counties from north to south, 15-30 mms rain possible there ... eventually these will move further east and arrive in the Dublin region and the southeast by afternoon. Further showers possible in the west but also some breaks in the overcast. Winds becoming SSW 20-35 mph, a few higher gusts developing mid-day to 45 mph south coast. ... Highs 13-16 C, mildest east.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, showers continuing, winds SW 15-25 mph, and lows around 7 C. Rainfall amounts 3-5 mms.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals becoming more frequent in the west by afternoon, a few more showers likely, briefly heavy in Mayo and Donegal by afternoon. Rainfalls of about 3-5 mms, highs 13-15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers more likely in northwest, breezy (westerly 15-25 mph), lows 4-6 C and highs 13-15 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... Continuing partly cloudy and mostly dry but some isolated showers, temperatures near 5 C overnight and near 14 C daytime.

OUTLOOK ... Weekend appears slightly unsettled especially in northern counties but could provide at least some dry weather and limited sunshine, in a cool westerly flow. Lows 3-6 C and highs 12-15 C. Into the following week, slightly warmer in stages.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Hot and dry in central regions again today, a few storms developing in Iowa, Missouri and Illinois ahead of the hot, somewhat humid air mass. Cool and dry over the northeast, although near normal. Showery and chilly across the northwest U.S. and much of western Canada, snow at higher elevations in the Rockies and Cascades.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, generally dry on Sunday 8th, cool with highs near 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 10-05-2011 6:27am

Tuesday, 10 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks developing, rain in several areas tending to hover in place with redevelopment while areas between these extended showers will stand some chance of remaining dry. At the moment it looks as though the inland south will be feeding one of these rainfall areas, which could produce some limited thunder, northeast towards Kildare and western Dublin, whether it holds together later when it has to cross the higher ground remains to be seen. Another persistent area of rain will be found in Connacht northeast to central Ulster. There may be a third area developing from around Limerick northeast towards Westmeath. Rainfall with these persistent showers will amount to 10-20 mms locally while other places see only 1-3 mms. Winds moderate SW'ly in most places and highs 13-16 C, mildest east coast. There should be a general improvement except perhaps in Connacht by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, showers, breezy, lows 4-7 C. Rainfalls 3-5 mms.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy but overcast in the north with more frequent showers there, amounts 3-7 mms. Winds SW to W 15-30 mph and highs reaching 13-15 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, some longer sunny intervals in the south, showers in the north, winds westerly backing to southwest 15-30 mph, lows around 5 C and highs around 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Somewhat cooler with frequent light showers in most places and some heavier showers developing across Connacht. Hail could be fairly widespread on higher ground and summits could see a touch of snow, as the freezing levels will drop to about 1,200m. But down where most people live, lows will stay above freezing (2-5 C) and highs about 11-13 C in a brisk westerly. Some thunder likely too, but this situation may not be all that unstable so it could be more of a drizzly cold pattern in the east and south.

OUTLOOK ... Slowly improving over the weekend and through next week as Atlantic high pressure edges closer, keeping winds NW'ly to N'ly at times, so considerable cloud likely in the north and northwest, isolated showers continuing but longer sunny intervals for the south especially. The following weekend (21-22 May) at present looks settled and a bit warmer. This is quite early for the forecast period though.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Hot and dry conditions continue to dominate the central states about as far north as South Dakota. Further north and west, rain continues at lower elevations, maintaining high flood levels in Manitoba, and snow is falling over higher elevations of the Rockies. The hot, dry air mass extends into the southeast while the northeast states are in a cool cloudy northeast flow between offshore low pressure and strong high pressure near Hudson Bay.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday 9th was a cloudy, somewhat warmer day with highs around 15 C, light winds. We could do with more sunshine but at least the spring blooming has now reached its peak,

and also my allergic reactions. :mad:

TONIGHT ...

M.T. Cranium · 11-05-2011 6:30am

Wednesday, 11 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks mostly in eastern counites, as low cloud, drizzle or light rain moves into Atlantic coastal districts at times. Scattered showers elsewhere, rainfalls 2-4 mms at most. Highs 13-15 C, milder east. Winds W 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, showers mostly in western counties, breezy (winds W 10-20 mph) and some fog developing on hills, lows 4-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, a few showers mostly in Connacht, breezy (WNW 15-30 mph backing to SW later), lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, rather chilly with showers, some with hail and thunder, a few sunny intervals mixed in, then becoming overcast with intervals of light rain ... morning lows 3-6 C, afternoon highs only 11-13 C.

SATURDAY ... Showers, breezy, still rather cool with lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud with longer sunny intervals in the south, showers at times further north, lows near 5 C and highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat more settled at times next week, temperatures near normal. The outlook for the following weekend has now become rather showery and breezy. Temperatures over the next two weeks seem likely to average slightly below normal by 0.5 to 1.0 C deg.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The hot, humid air mass across central regions has become unstable and is about to develop some major severe weather later today in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Further east, it remains rather cool with low pressure just offshore creating a northeast flow. The west is also rather chilly with some further snowfalls in mountain areas and rain at lower elevations.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, high near 13 C on Tuesday 10th ... rain just started to fall this evening local time.

M.T. Cranium · 12-05-2011 7:14am

Thursday, 12 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Widespread morning showers in western and northern counties, spreading at times further east, with some improvement later to longer dry intervals and somewhat more sunshine between cloudy intervals ... breezy and sometimes gusty (WNW 15-30 mph) ... highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, showers, breezy and cool. Lows 4-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Cool and breezy with some rather heavy showers developing over the north and west at times, hail and thunder possible, even a touch of snow on summits above 800m. Somewhat less unsettled in south and east but a few showers there also. Winds westerly veering to NW 15-35 mph. Highs only 10-13 C at low elevations and 5-8 C higher elevations.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, continuing rather cool and unsettled, showers mainly north and west, winds westerly 15-30 mph, lows near 4 C inland to about 8 C west coast, and highs 12-15 C. Still likely to be quite cold at summit level for anyone thinking of climbing.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of light rain at times across the north, but turning a bit milder as winds back to SW, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C. A fairly dry day likely in the south with some sunshine.

MONDAY - TUESDAY ... This may be a relatively pleasant interval especially in the south, with higher pressure nearby, but still somewhat breezy and unsettled in the north. Highs in the range 15-18 C. Slight risk of ground frost in the most frost-prone locations.

WEDNESDAY to SUNDAY OUTLOOK ... This period looks generally cool and unsettled, especially around Friday (20th) and Saturday (21st). Highs would be in the 13-15 C range on current indications.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... the week after that looks warmer and drier on the long-range guidance charts. Who knows, it may even turn out that way.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Widespread severe storms developed from eastern Texas north to eastern Nebraska. Warm and humid in most areas east of this front, except rather cool with northeast winds in parts of New England. Cool and wet in the western U.S. and western Canada, although near normal temperatures most areas of inland B.C. and Alberta.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... I am proud to say that we are managing to produce even worse weather than yourselves most days, and today in particular, as it rained non-stop and hit a rather modest high of 13 deg C. The local mountain ranges are still very much snow-covered and concerns about an eventual rapid melt and valley flooding are increasing. No sign of any really warm weather around here next week or two either, although we are expecting one or two sunny days end of this week.

M.T. Cranium · 13-05-2011 6:08am

Friday, 13 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Cool and unsettled with showers gradually extending across most regions from present coverage in west and northwest ... some showers may turn thundery with hail, and sleet or snow could fall on summits above 800m, which may become evident later as skies briefly clear towards sunset. Winds rather blustery at times from west at 20-35 mph. Highs only 10-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals then cloudy again, drizzle or light rain spreading into Connacht ... chilly, lows near 5 C on average but could fall as low as 2-3 C inland southeast where clear skies persist longer.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, breezy and cool, highs 11-14 C, winds veering to NW 15-30 mph. Longer dry intervals towards evening.

SUNDAY ... Some improvements across the south with drier weather and some sunshine, a bit warmer too ... remaining rather cloudy and breezy in the north, with some showers persisting at times. Lows generally 3-5 C and highs in the range of 11-15 C mildest south.

MONDAY ... Breezy, some intervals of light rain in north, sunny breaks more frequent south, milder, lows near 7 C and highs 14-17 C.

TUESDAY ... Likely to be the best day of the week with some sunshine, highs near 17 C after a cool start, and clouds increasing rapidly in the evening with overnight showers arriving in the west near midnight.

OUTLOOK ... Turning quite chilly again for several days as Greenland sends another belated sample, so highs not far into the teens and lows well down towards freezing, promoting a slight risk of frost inland if skies ever clear for any length of time. The weekend following (21st-22nd) now looks somewhat improved over previous suggestions, part of a gradual warming trend likely to peak during the last week of May.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... More showers and thunderstorms in central states moving slowly east, not overly severe in most cases ... generally warm although near normal further east ... rather chilly across the west except for a separate pocket of warmth developing under cut-off high pressure near Alberta. Severe flooding threatens Manitoba as rivers run very high but fortunately there is little rain in their five-day outlook, just spotty drizzle at times.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Slight improvement on Thursday as clouds gradually parted to reveal some blue skies by late afternoon, staying rather chilly though, high of about 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 14-05-2011 7:21am

Saturday, 14 May, 2011
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TODAY ... A dry start in most areas, with showers likely to spread into the west this morning and some parts of the east and south later, although a few places there could remain dry ... some sunny intervals mostly confined to east and south by afternoon ... winds NW 15-30 mph ... highs 13-15 C. Where it does rain, 2-5 mms on average.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, some longer clear intervals in southeast, showers likely to continue in northwest, winds backing to W 15-30 mph and remaining rather blustery in exposed west coast districts ... lows about 7 C ... rainfalls of 1-3 mms.

SUNDAY ... Turning a bit warmer across the south with variable cloud and some sunny intervals, but cloudy with intervals of light rain across the north, highs in the range of 13-17 C north to south, and rainfalls of 3-5 mms in the north. Winds WSW 20-35 mph.

MONDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, further showers or rain in the north, winds WSW 20-35 mph, lows 7-10 C and highs 13-16 C.

TUESDAY ... Some improvements for the south with a less breezy interval and more sunshine mid-day, highs near 17 C. The north however won't see much if any improvement with cloud, westerly winds and showers continuing, highs near 13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Blustery winds, chilly with showers, highs 11-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, showers, highs 12-14 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Likely to remain rather cool and unsettled with gusty winds at times and showers, highs remaining in the 12-15 C range. A slight improvement seems likely in the following week.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Extensive showers, some heavy storms embedded, moving further east on Friday, will be spreading through the Ohio valley and inland Carolinas and southeast on Saturday and towards the east coast and New England on Sunday. Warm and humid ahead of this slow-moving front. Very cool and dry air mass spreading south from Manitoba behind the front, with extensive low cloud as far south as Kansas, and highs only in the 5-10 C range in the northern and central plains states, also rather cool and dry but sunny further south, and with the sunshine at least reasonably warm, 20-24 C, but with low humidity nights will be much cooler than normal. Western regions becoming wet as fronts move onshore.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday 13th was a welcome sunny interval in the cloudy weather pattern, and the high responded by reaching 16 C. Clouding over tonight with more rain moving in soon.

M.T. Cranium · 15-05-2011 6:49am

Sunday, 15 May, 2011
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TODAY ... A cloudy start for most, and rather windy, with drizzle or light rain across the north. Some improvements across the south especially by late morning and afternoon. Sunny breaks may be brief except in the lee of some higher terrain. Winds WSW 20-35 mph. Highs 12-14 C north to 15-17 C south. Rainfall amounts 2-5 mms north, trace to 2 mms elsewhere.

TONIGHT ... Further showers or drizzle at times mostly in north and west, mild and humid with westerly breezes 15-25 mph, lows 7-10 C.

MONDAY ... Rather similar conditions to today, rain or drizzle at times in the north, cool and breezy there, but brighter at times in the south. Highs around 13-15 C north, 15-17 C south. Winds W 20-35 mph.

TUESDAY ... Although somewhat wet at times in west and north, there could also be longer sunny intervals in the east and south with a brief decrease in the winds, highs 12-15 C north, 15-18 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Becoming rather windy again and turning colder with widespread squally showers, some hail. Highs about 12-14 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Unsettled, cool, breezy. Highs 12-15 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Gradual improvements now expected as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in from southwest. It may stay rather cloudy and damp in north but could break to some sunshine at times in south. Highs likely to be in the range of 13 C north to 17 C south.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The European model is suggesting a warm spell for the following week (23-27 May) and other models are at least partially in agreement.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Showers are advancing east through coastal states now and it will be a rather wet Sunday in New York and New England, and cloud extends well back to the west of low pressure in the Great Lakes to cover much of the central plains region. This is holding temperatures down to only 10 C or thereabouts. Further south it is seasonably warm now, and unusually dry as Gulf humidity is held away. A slow moving frontal system is moving east through Nevada and spreading rain north into a trough that ends up around the west coast. Although it is warming up slightly in a southeast flow, there is only really hot weather in southern Arizona.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday 14th turned out quite pleasant with cloud breaking at times and rain mostly holding off except for a few traces, but a steady rain arrived around 6 pm and has probably dropped about 3-5 mms since then. The high was about 18 C.

M.T. Cranium · 16-05-2011 7:23am

Monday, 16 May, 2011
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Is anyone getting that groundhog day feeling yet?

TODAY ... cloudy in most regions, with a few brighter intervals developing mid-day and afternoon across the southern third of the country ... occasional rain or drizzle further north, only 1-3 mms at most ... highs near 13 C in the north to 16 C south. ... Winds westerly 20-30 mph, somewhat slacker by later afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals developing in the south, but remaining cloudy elsewhere, some light rain at times, not as breezy though ... lows 8 to 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy in the northern and central counties, some sunny breaks developing south and southeast. Morning rain or drizzle mainly confined to west coast counties, then a dry interval most places, with evening rain or showers developing. Highs 14 C (north) to 18 C (south).

WEDNESDAY ... Becoming quite breezy to windy again, a bit cooler with passing heavy showers, some with hail ... lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. Winds WSW 20-30 mph. Rainfalls about 3-5 mms.

THURSDAY ... Breezy, unsettled, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C. Rainfalls about 1-3 mms.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Turning somewhat warmer, unsettled north, sunny intervals south ... winds SW backing to southerly later, highs near 17 C on Saturday and possibly 19-20 C by Sunday. This warmer spell could last for a while at least in the south and east, the prospects further north and west are less certain but even there an improved weather picture seems likely.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The east remains wet and what little warm air was left by Sunday night was being squeezed out of the low in New England, so highs on Monday will probably struggle to reach 15 C. Cool and cloudy with scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle well back to the west in a broad northeast flow. Somewhat warmer but not up to seasonal norms in the Gulf coast region. A low in Nevada moving slowly into Idaho will continue to spread rain into the Pacific northwest. The southeast flow has warmed temperatures in some regions and snow melt is beginning to promote river flooding in some parts of central B.C. and the inland parts of the northwest U.S.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday 15th was a cloudy, misty day with light rain most of the day, only a few mms in total. Winds are east to southeast and highs were about 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 17-05-2011 6:26am

Tuesday, 17 May, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy at first with some sunny breaks developing especially in eastern and southern counties, and rather warm ... a few showers or periods of drizzle confined to the northwest coast, even there not very heavy ... highs near 14 C north to near 18 C southeast.

TONIGHT ... Showers at times, heavier in the north, 3-5 mms possible there, as winds pick up from the WSW at 20-30 mph. Lows 6-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, more sunny breaks in south and east, frequent showers across Connacht and Ulster, also Clare, winds W 20-35 mph and highs 14-16 C, higher near east coast.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, some showers in north and west at times, but generally dry in south and east, winds SW 20-30 mph, lows 3-7 C and highs 14-16 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, periods of rain in west, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY ... Rather windy and showery, heaviest rain western counties during morning, shifting more to northern counties later, potential for 10-15 mms there, lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, mild, showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Monday may become quite windy and even stormy at times in the west and north as deep low pressure races past Connacht, then the weather pattern looks set to improve gradually with a warmer and drier interval later in the week.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Little change as rain continues in the northeast, cool and mainly dry weather in central states, although warmer and dry in central Canada with some severe fires breaking out in north-central Alberta, wet across the Pacific northwest and some parts of British Columbia. Hot and dry in the southwest, with this heat slowly replacing cool, dry air mass in Texas and Oklahoma. Severe storms likely to develop mid-week in Colorado, Kansas, north Texas and Oklahoma.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday 16th was cloudy but dry, with a high near 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 18-05-2011 6:30am

Wednesday, 18 May, 2011
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Perhaps because of all the cloud there and here, I overlooked the date of the full moon -- it was yesterday. It will continue to look full tonight though, and you'll notice that it hangs low in the south even at its highest point around 0200h.

TODAY ... Once a weak front clears the southeast and takes sporadic light showers with it, expect an interval of bright although somewhat cloudy weather (watery sun visible through altostratus) that will then be followed by lower cloud in some northern counties and a few more showers there. Expect the higher overcast to break up to scattered towering cumulus later in the south, mostly dry shower clouds that could drop a brief downpour in one or two locations. Even so, large parts of the south and east should stay dry, and winds will be fresh from a westerly direction at 20-30 mph. Highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, as any northern cloud and showers gradually move away, and a weak ridge develops ... this may be one of the colder nights all month with lows 3-6 C and the very slight risk of ground frost in sheltered inland locations. Winds falling off to light.

THURSDAY ... A bright and in many places sunny day with fresh southwest winds developing, increasing cloud late morning west to afternoon east, followed by light rain ... except for the far north, where cloud may come and go all day with a few showers in Donegal mostly. Highs 15-17 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, intervals of rain developing, becoming rather heavy at times in western counties, potential for 5-15 mms there. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C. Strong southerly winds arriving by evening in the west.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, early morning rain followed by some brighter intervals and a second band of rain crossing the country later with 10-15 mms potential, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C. Winds SW 25-40 mph.

SUNDAY ... Brighter intervals developing, showers becoming widely separated and some longer dry intervals, westerly breezes 15-30 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and wet, unless we get a last minute change of mind from the models, potential for (SSW-WSW) wind gusts to 50 mph and heavy showers at times. Lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Models are giving different solutions at present, the general trend is certainly improving but this persistent storm track just to the north of Donegal may not fade away until late in the week, so splitting the difference would suggest partly cloudy and showery weather to continue in the north most of the week, a drying trend across the south. Eventually it seems likely to turn quite a bit warmer late next week and towards the end of May.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... A fairly minor severe storm outbreak in eastern Colorado late Tuesday will be seeding a stronger outbreak in Kansas and Oklahoma on Wednesday. If you're a storm chase follower, there could be some dramatic action late today. The northeast states continue to be plagued by low cloud and rain -- in Boston on Tuesday, the wind was northeast at 30 mph and it was barely 9 or 10 deg C. This won't improve a lot today either. ... Warm and dry around a sprawling high over central Canada as far west as central B.C. now as fronts are breaking up and allowing a warm southeast wind to push across the Rockies.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday 17th was a mainly sunny day after morning cloud broke up, and it was rather cool due to the sea breeze, about 14 C for a high.

M.T. Cranium · 19-05-2011 6:42am

Thursday, 19 May, 2011
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TODAY ... A sunny start to the day for most, then increasing high cloud in the west around mid-day and covering the east by late afternoon ... it should remain dry except perhaps in north Donegal where a bit of mist or drizzle will blow in this afternoon ... highs about 15 C north to 17 C south ... winds rather light this morning then increasing to SW 15-25 mph.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, a few spots of rain at times, 1-3 mms on average, with the SW breeze continuing, milder than last night at 7-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, further light rain or showers, easing by afternoon with a few sunny breaks developing, highs 15-18 C, winds SSW 15-30 mph. Some sea fog blowing inland by late afternoon west and southwest coasts.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain developing, possibly coming across from west to east in two waves, the second of these in the afternoon becoming rather heavy at times. Winds increasing to SW 20-40 mph ... fog and mist on some southern and western coasts and hills inland ... lows 10 to 12 C and highs 14 to 16 C. Rainfalls about 10-20 mms on average.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, partly cloudy, just a few residual morning showers mainly in Ulster, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C. Winds WSW 20-35 mph.

MONDAY ... Very windy across the west and north (SW 40-60 mph) with squally showers, quite windy elsewhere too (SW 30-50 mph) with squally showers including hail and thunder ... lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... It will calm down gradually on Tuesday and the showers will be increasingly confined to Ulster before ending completely, then it may become rather chilly with risk of scattered frosts well inland mid-week. A second disturbance may bring some light rain but now this one looks like it may run into an episode of "height building" (not a bad TV show you've so far managed to miss) that could finally bring some milder and settled conditions for a while around Friday and Saturday. Models seem convinced that this decent spell will be terminated rather quickly around Sunday 29th with yet another westerly gale. However, the pattern emerging does have elements of promise for warmer and more settled weather in early June.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Wednesday's storm development proved rather anemic after all, but there's a lot of unstable cloud around that could lead to some scattered severe storms later today in Kansas and Oklahoma. Further west, it looks quite hot and dry, with highs likely to be near 38 C or 100F in west Texas and parts of Arizona and New Mexico. Otherwise, much of North America is covered by rather chilly air masses and widespread low cloud, except for the Canadian prairies which have some pockets of warm and dry weather and outbreaks of forest fires.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday 18th was a sunny day with a cool breeze and a high of about 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 20-05-2011 6:30am

Friday, 20 May, 2011
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Unsettled and changeable weather now to about Tuesday, improving after mid-week, turning warmer

TODAY ... Morning showers (3-7 mms) will slowly clear east, with variable cloud to follow, some sunny intervals across the south spreading to the east coast by afternoon. Winds SW 20-30 mph veering more westerly later, then backing to strong southerly tonight. Highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, periods of rain and windy, some heavy downpours developing, winds SSW 20-40 mph, lows 10-12 C. Foggy over south coast and higher terrain in general.

SATURDAY ... The first wave of rainfall should begin to clear east in the morning, followed by a brief interval of dry but windy weather with some sunny breaks. Winds SSW 30-50 mph, highs 14-16 C. A second front with heavy and possibly squally or thundery showers will arrive late in the day. Winds will increase to SW 35-60 mph with the higher gusts in Connacht and west Munster. Total rainfalls 15-30 mms possible.

SUNDAY ... Early morning strong winds (WSW 40-60 mph) and brief downpours of heavy rain, tending to clear rapidly south but remaining cloudy and drizzly further north, winds easing slowly and remaining WSW 20-40 mph, highs 13-15 C. Feeling chilly due to the damp and the strong winds, especially across the north.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain turning to squally showers, moderate to strong SW winds developing, gusts to 65 mph possible in Connacht, 55 mph elsewhere, lows of about 10 C and highs near 13 C.

TUESDAY ... Continued rather windy and showery with winds WSW 20-40 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Although somewhat uncertain with a bit of spread in model guidance, the trend will definitely be improving towards the end of the week, so would expect partly cloudy weather mid-week, chances for isolated inland frost around Wed 25th, sunny conditions later in the week, and rising temperatures for daytime hours at least, highs near 16 C mid-week to 20 C or perhaps a bit higher by the end of the week and the weekend of 28th-29th May. Some signs of a fairly long spell of settled weather although it could briefly turn a bit cooler around Monday 30th.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... A few severe storms developed on Thursday across western Oklahoma and central Kansas. Hot, humid air has moved as far north as about northeast Kansas to South Carolina. Further north, the remnants of a large swirl of cool, cloudy air mass showing signs of modifying to warm and dry over the next few days. Western regions pleasant near normal temperatures and sunshine under a weak ridge.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny and pleasantly warm on Thursday, high of about 17 C.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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