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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 3 February, 2011
    ____________________________

    ALERT for strong winds around mid-day and this afternoon in most regions, gusting to 60 m.p.h. in exposed locations and as high as 75 m.p.h. in coastal Mayo and Donegal. There may also be some very squally and thundery showers of hail or rain (snow on summits).

    TODAY ... Partly cloudy with a few passing showers (possibly sleety in higher locations) this morning, then becoming very windy mid-day and afternoon with squally showers widespread, some with hail and thunder, and snow falling on summits, as winds become SSW 40-60 mph (50-75 mph coastal Connacht and Donegal). Continuing quite stormy into the evening with winds veering more westerly. Highs around 10 C by late afternoon, but it may feel very cold much of the day due to the strong winds and temperatures that remain 4-7 C into mid-day. Rainfalls will average about 5-8 mms.

    TONIGHT ... Windy and turning colder with showers becoming more mixed over higher parts of the north, then clearing somewhat as winds ease well after midnight to W 25-45 mph. Lows near 4 C.

    FRIDAY ... Some brighter intervals will quickly be followed by cloud and rain with strong SW winds 35-55 mph, rainfalls 10-15 mms, highs near 11-12 C.

    SATURDAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain, not as windy, temperatures steady in the 8-11 C range, falling a bit later in the day to 5-7 C. Rainfalls of about 10 to 20 mms likely.

    SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy with some more pleasant bright or sunny intervals and slightly cooler, lows near 3 C and highs near 9 C. Showers developing by late afternoon lasting overnight.

    MONDAY ... Showery, breezy and highs near 10 C.

    OUTLOOK ... More settled for a while, somewhat cooler ... then a damp or wet interval later in the week ... but there may be some interest created by developing strong high pressure in Russia edging westward.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... On Wednesday 2nd, it was rather cloudy and a bit milder here with a high of about 7 C.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... While Chicago and other parts of the Midwest tried to dig out of the fierce blizzard of Tuesday, the somewhat weakened storm continued east and dropped 15-30 cms of snow across parts of southern Ontario, upstate New York and northern New England, with freezing rain or a cold rain further south, and a few gusty showers in the southeast. The very cold air remains locked into the central and western U.S. but is modifying very gradually (lows fell below -40 in parts of Colorado on Wednesday morning) as the high weakens from its peak near 1060 mbs. Western Canada is enjoying a gradual warming trend in W-NW winds and the severe cold has already been replaced by temperatures around freezing.

    Watch for updates here and in the discussion thread about the strong winds -- expect these to set in around mid-day to 3 p.m. from west to east, and last about 3-6 hours.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 4 February, 2011
    __________________________

    TODAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain and moderately strong southwest winds at 35-55 mph, highs near 11 or 12 C and rainfalls of 5-15 mms, the higher amounts in Connacht. Some dry intervals could develop in the south.

    TONIGHT ... Cloudy, periods of rain, some heavy in central and later southern counties, 15-30 mms of rain possible, winds steady but not quite as strong, SW 25-40 mph. Lows only 7-10 C.

    SATURDAY ... Rain continuing across the south, tapering off to drizzle in the north around mid-day, brighter there by late afternoon, while in the south becoming rather foggy or misty as 20-30 mms of rain could accumulate ... highs will be 7-9 C north and 9-11 C south. Less windy.

    SUNDAY ... Rain continuing in the south, some bright intervals at first further north, then cloudy with light rain advancing north, winds continuing from a southerly direction but not overly strong at 15-30 mph. Lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C. About 20-40 mms of rain in some parts of the south, and over the four-day period some field or stream flooding seems likely across the south and some central counties.

    MONDAY ... Showery, turning a bit colder as winds become westerly, lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Somewhat colder as high pressure builds over the eastern parts of Ireland and the U.K., slight frosts and mid-day highs near 5 C in light southeast winds mid-week.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Wed 3rd was cloudy with occasional rain, rather mild at 7 or 8 C.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER has settled down across the northern U.S. and southern Canada where it is generally mild or near normal, now that the massive arctic high has sunk almost to the Gulf coast. Texas and northern Mexico were abnormally cold with outbreaks of sleet or snow. El Paso TX had its coldest day in 120 years of records, with a high on Wednesday of only -8 deg C. And Brownsville at the southern tip of Texas, as well as Matomoros Mexico, had freezing temperatures and freezing drizzle. Low pressure is forming in the Gulf and moving towards Atlanta GA, with sleet or snow moving northeast out of Texas towards Arkansas and the Tennessee valley.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 5 February, 2011
    ____________________________

    TODAY ... CLoudy, continuing very mild and wet across southern counties, while the northern half of the country sees at least slight breaks in the rain and a few brighter intervals by afternoon. Winds will remain rather strong near the south coast at 25-45 mph, but elsewhere it will cease to be windy with a moderate westerly breeze. Rainfalls could reach 15-30 mms across the inland south, but only 5-10 mms more today in the north (mostly this morning). Highs will range from 9 C far north to 13 C south coast.

    TONIGHT ... The rain will be persistent across the south with 15-30 mms additional, leading to some field and stream flooding. The north may remain dry for most of the night with nothing more than a light rain or drizzle by morning. Lows will range from 9-10 C south coast, to 6 C north.

    SUNDAY ... Cloudy with further rain, 10-20 mms or more, and flooding problems could increase in some parts of the south-central inland counties. Highs will be about 10-11 C in a moderate south wind of 20-30 mph.

    MONDAY ... Showers, turning cooler by afternoon, with lows near 5 C and highs 8-9 C. A further 10-15 mms of rain is possible before this deluge finally tapers off.

    TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Dry and cooler in a light southeast to south wind, slight frosts may return to some inland locations, lows -1 to +2 C and highs in the 5-8 C range.

    OUTLOOK ... There is some chance of a colder turn to the weather but the models still seem to favour an eventual return to milder conditions.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday 4th was a very mild and cloudy day with some fog and late glimpses of the sun, high tied the record for the day (13 C) and it was a bit breezy at times.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The unusually cold weather persists in Texas and the far west inland about as far north as Oregon and southern Idaho, but it's milder than average to the north of that. The east is rather close to average with the weak storm system from Texas now moving into the lower Mississippi valley and towards the southeast states, but snow is fading from this system in favour of sleet and rain.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 6 February, 2011
    _________________________

    ALERT for locally heavy rainfalls, on already saturated ground, 20-40 mms further may fall today and tonight in counties from Limerick northeast to Meath and southeast Ulster. Field, stream and roadway flooding is quite likely, especially in these counties and nearby parts of other counties -- Limerick, Clare, Tipps, Offaly, Longford, Westmeath, Meath, Louth, Cavan, Monaghan, Down.

    TODAY will remain cloudy and wet, especially in the counties outlined in the alert, with 20-40 mms of rain there and perhaps 10-20 mms in some other counties south of this zone, 5-10 mms generally north of the alert zone. Highs will reach 12 C in the south and within the heavier rainfall zone, and about 10 C further north. It will be rather windy to the south of the heavier rainfall zone mostly, where winds from the SSW at 25-45 mph are likely, but further north it will not be very windy.

    TONIGHT will see the end of this long period of steady rain, but could produce a further 10-20 mms especially in north Leinster and southeast Ulster, with just light rain or drizzle elsewhere before some very late clearing arrives, with winds W 10-20 mph and lows 5-8 C.

    MONDAY will be partly cloudy with further showers, mainly light, and some brighter or even sunny intervals by afternoon, with a westerly wind flow gusting to about 30 mph and highs near 10 C.

    TUESDAY will be partly cloudy and cooler with lows only 2-4 C, the risk of slight frost, and highs 6-8 C.

    WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY should continue relatively dry although some light rain could brush the west coast at times, with southeast winds and near normal temperatures (lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C).

    OUTLOOK -- Wet again towards the end of the week, and possibly becoming quite windy at times, not as mild as this past wet spell (7-9 C), and the models then promise a potential for a return to wintry cold around the 20th of the month. This seems to fit the general cycle we've seen, as you may recall, the weather was somewhat similar to the present set-up early in November too.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Saturday was cloudy and mild with highs of about 10-12 C.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER is somewhat bland now after the big storm last week. There is some snow and sleet moving northeast into the Ohio valley and a somewhat milder rain spreading up the east coast, and eventually this may develop into a small-scale storm for New England. Otherwise, it is rather dry in most areas and temperatures range from well below normal in the south to mild in the north, which basically means it's about the same temperature from Texas north to the arctic circle.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Sunday, 9 p.m.
    ____________________

    A final burst of heavy rainfall is moving into the southwest and will probably track somewhat further north than previous bands, placing Clare, west Limerick, east Galway, Offaly, Longford, Roscommon and most of central to east Ulster in the path of 20-30 mms of rain overnight. Amounts will be more like 10-20 mms from east Limerick northeast to Dublin and Meath, and 5-10 mms in the southeast as well as the far northwest. Some thunder may occur with this band tonight.

    Looking at next week, the forecast may need to add some mention of light rain on Tuesday afternoon and evening moving north and giving 3-5 mms of additional rain after a brief dry spell. Later in the week it still looks rather cool and variable with mainly dry conditions but some brief showery intervals too.

    The longer term continues to look very interesting with the potential for much colder weather returning any time after the 15th.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 7 February, 2011
    ____________________________

    TODAY ... Windy and turning colder with some strong gusts to 60 mph possible in central and eastern counties, from a westerly direction. These strong winds will tend to settle down to 25-35 mph WNW by mid-day, as mixed wintry showers sweep across the north. Further south, there will be fewer showers in general and less mixing, but also a few sunny intervals by afternoon. Highs today have already been recorded in many places and temperatures will now remain steady 4-6 C (as low as 2 C in higher northern locations) to 6-8 C south coast. There may be a slight increase again as the winds subside early afternoon. Further rainfalls only 1-2 mms.

    TONIGHT ... Some clearing and much colder with isolated frost developing, lows -3 to +2 C, winds dropping off to light in the south, and WSW 20 mph in the north.

    TUESDAY ... Bright intervals at first, chilly, but turning milder in the afternoon with intervals of light rain or drizzle, highs 7-9 C. Moderate SE to S winds.

    WEDNESDAY ... Hazy, mild with a few residual showers, lows near 3 C and highs near 10 C.

    THURSDAY ... Colder with some frost likely, then highs near 6 C.

    FRIDAY ... Periods of rain, possibly starting as sleet, becoming rather windy from the southeast to south. Highs near 7 C.

    OUTLOOK ... There may be another blast of wind and rain next weekend, but the models are dealing with some difficult developments here, as much colder air is moving west through northern Europe and ending up very close to the North Sea by next weekend, while a strong low tries to occupy the space over Ireland and the western U.K. -- any errors in the models here, and there could be a much different solution. Whatever happens on the weekend, the cold air won't be pushed away and may eventually move far enough west to bring colder weather back for a stay.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... low cloud, occasional rain or drizzle, foggy, 8 C.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... not very active, weak systems over the eastern U.S. are somewhat milder than previous weeks and not very much is happening aside from light snow or sleet, coastal rain. A colder air mass has moved south into western Canada but temperatures are only -15 to -18 C rather than the bitter cold of previous outbreaks.

    The strong wind situation this morning looks very hit or miss, and we could get some isolated damage reports where a strong W wind is channelled by local terrain. Also the storm is moving away rapidly and the strongest winds should be done by 0930 or so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    ALERT for local wind gusts to 70 m.p.h. causing isolated damage this morning with a cold front moving rapidly east through Ulster and Leinster. This should be moving through Dublin in the next hour or two, and parts of north Leinster as well as southeast Ulster now to 0900h. In this frontal zone there would be a slight risk of a minimal tornado developing, watch skies to your west for any severe weather approaching. This may apply in particular to south Armagh, Down, Louth and coastal Meath.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 8 February, 2011
    ______________________________

    TODAY ... Increasing cloud by mid-day with rain moving into the south during the afternoon, then further north and east by evening ... fairly light rain this time, 3-7 mms ... highs 8-10 C ... watch for some icy roads this morning.

    TONIGHT ... Cloudy with light rain or mist, becoming foggy with lows 4-7 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Hazy, some bright intervals but more rain spreading in from the southwest, once again rather light in general, but a few heavier bursts developing, 5-10 mms on average ... highs 8-11 C in moderate S-SW winds. Outlook

    WEDNESDAY NIGHT ... Rain to about midnight, then late clearing, fog developing, slight frosts and icy roads likely ... lows -3 to +2 C.

    THURSDAY ... Rather cold with sunny intervals after morning frost or fog patches clear away, then mid-day to afternoon highs of about 6-8 C ... rain or sleet in the evening turning to a steady rain (mixed precip higher northern areas) overnight.

    FRIDAY ... Milder with cloud and occasional rain, highs near 10 C.

    SATURDAY ... Morning frost, afternoon bright intervals or sunshine, highs near 8 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Damp and rather cold in a developing easterly flow, some risk that this will turn wintry but certainly not very mild (highs at this point would seem to be 4-7 C on average for several days).

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Monday was sunny with a brisk, rather cold wind and highs near 6 C.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... some snow has broken out across New England tonight (local time) and otherwise it is rather chilly just about everywhere but not excessively cold.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 9 February, 2011
    _______________________________

    TODAY ... Cloudy with intervals of rain, mostly light, moving northeast and fading to drizzle by afternoon ... a burst of heavier rain will then follow reaching the southwest about mid-day and moving towards Leinster. Total rainfalls today generally 5-10 mms, locally 15 mms southwest (later). Highs will reach 11-12 C in a moderate southerly wind. Foggy at times near coasts and on higher ground.

    TONIGHT ... Showers or periods of rain, lows 4-7 C, about 5-10 mms of rain, becoming foggy.

    THURSDAY ... A brighter, generally dry day with a slight risk of showers in the southeast, highs 7-9 C. Rain perhaps mixed with sleet at first, spreading in during the evening.

    FRIDAY ... Periods of rain, foggy, milder again, lows 4-7 C and highs 9-11 C.

    SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, highs near 10 C.

    SUNDAY ... Damp and chilly with mixed precipitation possible on higher ground in the north, otherwise cold rain showers and highs of about 5-8 C.

    OUTLOOK ... A rather cold week with winds generally E to SE, some rain at times, with the risk of sleet or snow but so far this seems mostly marginal or on highest terrain. Much colder weather will be spreading into nearby parts of Europe so this forecast is subject to change as we get closer to the time.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER for Tuesday 8th was partly cloudy and rather chilly with highs near 6 C.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The main event now is a developing snowstorm over Oklahoma that earlier gave Kansas 10-15 cms, and is moving southeast with very cold air (for the region) spreading slowly south behind the frontal system. This snow will later spread into Arkansas and Mississippi (central-northern parts) and even northern Louisiana. OKC is bracing for as much as 15-20 cms today. On the east coast, meanwhile, it is seasonably cold while central to western Canada and the northern plains have turned very cold again (-18 to -25 C).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 10 February, 2011
    ____________________________

    TODAY ... Mostly dry and rather cold, some sunny intervals, and light winds. Highs 6-8 C. Rain, with some higher elevation sleet or wet snow arriving in west late this afternoon, wintry precip turning to rain this evening.

    TONIGHT ... Intervals of sleet or rain, temperatures in east near 2-3 C for part of the evening, closer to 5-6 C west, but in each case rising somewhat before morning.

    FRIDAY ... Morning showers, a few sunny intervals later, then cloudy by evening, highs around 10 C. Becoming foggy in the late evening and overnight.

    SATURDAY ... A frosty and in some places quite foggy start to the day, morning lows near -1 C, then brighter intervals to follow, then sleet turning to rain late afternoon and evening ... risk of measurable snow over higher parts of Connacht and Donegal, west Ulster ... highs 8-10 C.

    SUNDAY ... Rain ending before dawn in west, continuing for part of the day over eastern counties, slow clearing, rather chilly. Lows 2-4 C and highs around 7 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Showery, cold for several days next week, with winds northwest at first, turning more to east mid-week, possible wintry precip over higher terrain, highs only 5-7 C on average.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER for Wednesday 9th was bright and rather cold, highs about 6 C. The ground here is almost dry which is unusual for mid-February. The snow level is about 700 metres, somewhat higher than normal but a lot better than last year as we staged the "Winter" Olympics. :pac:

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... the dominant system continues to be the snowstorm across the southern states, hitting Arkansas quite hard on Wednesday with 10-30 cms of snow (and even some reports of 50 cms in higher parts of the Ozarks). Oklahoma cleared out but it was -10 C, about 20 degrees below normal there. This was pretty much the story all the way north to the subarctic (temperatures 10-15 deg below normal). Further east, it was cold too but not nearly as far below average. The southern snow turns to a cold rain near the Gulf coast and this will be the case today for Florida and coastal Georgia while snow spreads across central and northern GA.

    Just a general thought, in the pattern developing for Ireland, there will be a lot of marginal precip situations so anyone in higher parts of the north especially should be expecting some snow each time there's mention of sleet or even rain, but it may come and go during the events. Snow is also likely to show up on summits further south too.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 11 February, 2011
    ____________________________

    TODAY will be milder with showery rain moving slowly across the country, arriving on the east coast around mid-day. By afternoon, western counties may be brighter with the rain ending, but some fog could develop towards evening in many parts. Highs 10-12 C.

    TONIGHT will be partly to mostly clear once any evening showers move east, and eventually it will be quite cold with frost and fog in places. Lows -4 to -1 in rural areas, and -1 to +3 C in urban and coastal regions.

    SATURDAY will start out foggy or misty, with late morning sunshine lasting a few hours in most places before cloud spreads in, followed by rain (possibly sleet over higher parts of the north). Highs will be about 6-8 C.

    SATURDAY NIGHT will bring periods of rain, possibly mixed with snow on higher ground, and lows of 2-5 C.

    SUNDAY will have a wet start especially in the east, and it will be rather chilly at first, but brighter intervals should develop from the west, followed by scattered showers. Highs will be about 9 C.

    MONDAY looks rather cloudy and showery with highs around 8 C.

    OUTLOOK for TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... a rather cold and unsettled period, with winds becoming east to southeast ... at the moment, it does not look cold enough for snow except perhaps on higher terrain in the north and east, but it may be a close call with highs 5-7 C and overnight lows near freezing, somewhat below in any clearing intervals. This cold spell may end with strong winds and heavy rain as milder air tries to push back in late in the week.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Thursday 10th was sunny and cool, highs near 6C.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The snowstorm across the south began to break apart and all that remains of it now is a weak frontal wave in northern Florida bringing chilly rain in places. But as clearing spread in behind the storm, some places in Oklahoma and Arkansas had record lows, not just for the date but all-time (-35 C at a rural location in northeast OK). A more modified cold has spread across most other central and eastern regions, and it's rather mild in Alberta and northern B.C. ... not much is expected to happen today either, except for some offshore development near the Carolinas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 12 February, 2011
    ___________________________

    TODAY ... After some fog and local frost dissipate, there should be widespread sunny intervals, mostly dry although very isolated brief showers in west this morning ... rather cold but winds not very strong, so it may feel quite pleasant at mid-day ... highs 7-9 C. (Rain reaching the west coast around 3 p.m. to sunset)

    TONIGHT ... Periods of rain, possibly mixed with snow or sleet over some higher northern terrain, becoming foggy with clearing overhead towards morning (but thick fog possible in many areas). Lows falling to about 2-4 C after temperatures stay in the 5-7 C range during the rain. Amounts 5-10 mms with local 15 mms possible.

    SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, mixed wintry showers possible in Connacht, some accumulations of snow on higher ground by evening ... longer dry intervals in south and east but still some risk of a shower ... highs 6-8 C.

    MONDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, showery, some chance of mixed precip again, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

    TUESDAY ... Cloudy, showers or periods of light rain, chance of sleet or snow on higher ground, lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, cold, rain or wet snow in easterly winds 15-30 mph, lows near 2 C and highs 4-7 C.

    THURSDAY ... Cloudy, rain at times, strong winds possible by evening as milder air returns, highs near 10 C.

    OUTLOOK ... The models suggest that cold air next week will make a valiant effort to push back the milder Atlantic air, but will eventually lose the battle and allow the milder air back for several days ... this solution is not "carved in stone" and we'll have to see if the colder air can put up more of a fight (or if it fizzles even more than this forecast suggests).

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Friday 11th was cloudy and cool with occasional rain, highs near 6 C.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER continues rather cold in most areas but a slight warming trend is developing across the west, that will intensify during the next few days. However, for this time of year, the pattern across the continent is exceptionally "quiet."


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    This satellite loop (you will have to animate it) shows the connection of the front moving through Ireland tonight to deep low pressure (930 mbs) west of Iceland, but that low is heading NNW into Greenland. Dunno if they're calling it the Irish express there. :D

    http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_sigwx_1070_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 13 February, 2011
    ______________________________

    TODAY ... Morning fog and isolated frost gradually clearing to some brighter intervals, sunshine mainly confined to the south and east, as more showers, some of these wintry, move gradually into western counties. By afternoon there may be some sleet or snow in higher parts of Donegal, Connacht and Kerry. Elsewhere the showers could be hail as well as rain, with some thunder likely. Highs 6-9 C.

    TONIGHT ... Continued unsettled with wintry showers in higher elevations, some accumulations of snow possible there. Lows -1 to +3 C.

    MONDAY ... Variable cloud, chilly with wintry showers, some hail and snow but rain for most at lower elevations ... highs only 5-8 C.

    TUESDAY ... More overnight sleet or wet snow possible, then chilly with rain or sleet at times, turning slightly milder in the south, lows 2-4 C and highs about 6-8 C north to 8-10 C south. Foggy at times with brisk southeast winds developing south coast.

    WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, cool, rain may turn back to sleet in the north, some further snow possible on higher ground, winds backing SE to E 15-30 mph, lows near 2 C and highs near 6 C.

    THURSDAY ... Possible snow as even colder air tries to push further west, so chances for snow greater in east and north as somewhat milder air holds on rather feebly in south and west. Highs will range from 5 C to 9 C. Raw cold easterly winds, except in southwest.

    FRIDAY ... A sharper frontal zone may develop, bringing rain to the south and west, sleet or snow to some parts of the north and east, with winds generally easterly there at 15-30 mph.

    OUTLOOK ... Since the trend on the models is slightly in favour of the strength of the cold air (which really digs into Scandinavia during the week), I am not that confident about rapid warming trends even if they show up on most models ... at this time of year, cold air can sometimes prove more stubborn and so I am going to give equal chances to continued cool to cold, or somewhat milder, by next weekend.

    MTC'S LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday 12th was cloudy with rain that proved to be persistent and rather heavy ... highs were about 7 C.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER is on a slow warming trend in general, with a developing frontal wave in Alberta sliding towards Lake Superior -- this will bring a slight snowfall north of its track but temperatures will be rapidly recovering in the formerly frigid central and southern plains. The warming trend will be slower to reach the east coast, but eventually will bring temperatures up to about 10 C mid-week.

    See also the previous post, that satellite imagery should still be updating and will show a deep storm hitting the southeast coast of Greenland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 14 February, 2011
    _____________________________

    TODAY ... Outbreaks of sleet or snow in Connacht and parts of Ulster, mixing with rain at lower elevations. Some snow accumulations on hills (2-5 cms) and highs only 4-6 C. Generally more settled in Munster and Leinster with some sunny intervals, although some scattered showers of rain or hail possible by mid-day and afternoon. Highs 6-8 C.

    TONIGHT ... Some clearing and quite cold, any residual showers may be wintry, but most places dry ... lows -3 to +2 C.

    TUESDAY ... Rain and fog moving into the south around dawn and then further north, where it may begin as sleet or wet snow on higher ground late morning to mid-afternoon. Winds strengthening over the south to 15-30 mph from the southeast, and highs 7-9 C south, 4-7 C north.

    WEDNESDAY ... After a cold and in some places frosty night, expect mixed wintry showers or sleet, cold rain in east to southeast winds of 15-25 mph and a temperature range from about -1 C for the minimum to +5 C maximum.

    THURSDAY ... Continuing cloudy and cold with some outbreaks of sleet or even snow in the north and east, somewhat milder with partly cloudy skies likely further south and west (a front is probably going to set up somewhere through Ireland from northwest to southeast) ... highs 3-5 C north and east, to 6-8 C south, west.

    FRIDAY ... Some rain possible southwest, but at this point it looks as though colder air may make further westward advances on Friday bringing cold east winds and highs only 3-6 C with morning frost.

    OUTLOOK ... Continuing rather cold for several more days (prospects for milder air slowly moving in are still in the mix but the trend seems to be downgrading that). Snow not entirely ruled out either, as frontal waves may strengthen closer to the time.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday 13th was a mostly cloudy day with just a few brief showers. Highs 7-8 C.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The main feature at present is a developing low over the Great Lakes heading for Nova Scotia tomorrow. This is bringing in some slightly milder air (much warmer in the central and southern plains, but this will stay put until mid-week). Some light snow will fall north of this low's track in parts of Ontario and later northern New England. A stronger surge of mild air arriving Thursday will follow for eastern regions, after a cold outbreak behind this low.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Monday, 9:20 p.m.
    __________________________

    Rain can be expected in the coastal southwest after midnight, and as this moves further inland and encounters sub-freezing conditions in some inland counties, there is some risk of heavy wet snow developing before dawn and persisting into the morning hours. This may be very hit or miss across south-central Ireland and later into central and north-central regions. It would be more likely outside urban areas and on higher terrain. However, conditions do appear marginal for snow to develop across a large part of Ireland tomorrow morning. It will turn to sleet and then a cold rain as the day progresses, and there will be considerable fog especially on higher terrain. Temperatures will be rather slow to rise and may remain in the 2-3 C range for quite some time if not the entire day in parts of the north, but will rise a bit more readily to the 5-7 C range further south.

    Meanwhile, the never-ending model flip-flop concerning the end of the week battle between the colder air and the mild Atlantic has taken another turn towards milder outcomes -- I will deal with that in the main forecast at 0600 as who knows, it could change again before then. :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 15 February, 2011
    ______________________________

    TODAY ... cloudy and rather cold with periods of rain, mixing with sleet or snow on higher ground ... at this point, the mixing elevation looks rather high in the south (400m) and may turn out to be about 200-250m further north ... but somewhat colder air aloft will move in this afternoon and this may turn some rain showers to hail or snow later on ... winds will also be raw, ESE at about 20-40 mph turning more southerly and later westerly as the system tracks north. Rainfalls of 10-15 mms on average, some local snowfalls 2-5 cms and some hail lying at times as well ... highs 6-8 C south, 3-5 C north.

    TONIGHT ... rain or drizzle, sleet showers, becoming light then ending with some fog developing, chilly, lows -2 to +2 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... periods of rain in the south, possibly mixing with sleet on higher ground, variable cloud with isolated hail showers further north, chilly, winds SE 15-30 mph, highs 7-9 C south and 4-6 C north.

    THURSDAY ... cloudy, cool, foggy at times, mist or light rain, still the chance of sleet or snow in the north ... lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

    FRIDAY ... variable cloud, a bit milder, southerly winds, lows near -1 C and highs near 9 C.

    WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... cloudy, some rain at times, mild and rather windy from the south to southwest ... the chances of a significant cold outbreak are now on the decline (models continued to flip-flop, but seem to be locked onto a milder solution now) ... highs 10-12 C.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday 14th ... cloudy with a few showers, milder, windy (SE 30-40 mph), highs near 10 C.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... rapidly developing low pressure has moved into Nova Scotia tonight with cold northerly winds as far west as the Great Lakes, but the western half of the continent is quite mild. Earlier today some of this warmth briefly invaded Washington DC where it was over 20 C in sunshine, and NYC (15 C) but it has already turned much colder there. Another warm spell will reach the east coast around Thursday.

    Weather reports on the forum will be the best way to determine if any snow or hail is heading your way, as most of the official stations are probably a bit lower in elevation than some of our observers. Higher parts of Connacht and Ulster are most likely to see any snow but hail could be more widespread and could occur further south in the afternoon especially.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 16 February, 2011
    ________________________________

    TODAY ... In the south, cloudy with periods of rain developing, foggy, chance of sleet on higher ground. Some bursts of heavier rain, 15-30 mms could fall in southeast, 5-15 mms southwest. For central and northern counties, some sunny intervals, rather cool at first, could feel quite warm at mid-day out of the wind (east 15-25 mph). Highs 6-8 C in most places, could reach 10 in a few places west-central to Connacht.

    TONIGHT ... Rain or drizzle moving north mainly in eastern counties, becoming isolated by the time it reaches Ulster after midnight, foggy in many areas, becoming quite cold with lows zero to 2 C on average.

    THURSDAY ... Hazy or cloudy with a few sunny intervals, scattered light showers, some with soft hail, highs 7-9 C. Not as windy but still mainly east to southeast winds at 10-20 mph.

    FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, rather cold at first, scattered frost or fog inland, then cloudy with showers turning rather heavy late in the day (mainly western counties), lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7-10 C.

    WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Both days about the same, hazy or misty, a little milder, outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, some dense fog especially at night, lows near 3 C and highs near 10 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Showery on Monday, then a drying trend, potentially quite warm although a large range from night to day (typically 1-3 C at night to 11-13 C daytime). There is some chance of a somewhat colder east wind near the Irish Sea at times, but also some possibility of even milder temperatures.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Tuesday 15th was cloudy with a few showers, after a sunny start, and highs near 10 C.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... much colder today in eastern regions, but dry ... warming slowly over most central and western regions, leading to a fairly strong low in the northern plains states and southern prairies of Canada by tomorrow (snow to its north, severe storms in the central U.S.)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 17 February, 2011
    ______________________________

    Full moon occurs on Friday morning, and tonight if you get a glimpse of it, you should see it fairly close to the bright star Regulus. Lunar perigee is not long afterwards (Sat 19th) so tidal ranges will be quite high where winds are onshore (east coast, south coast) although nothing too extreme is expected as winds are moderate.

    TODAY ... Cloudy with some bright or even sunny breaks, but more of these in the west, as showers linger over the east with some patchy drizzle and mist or fog ... rather chilly except where the sun breaks through, highs generally 6-8 C, possibly 10 C in a few spots.

    TONIGHT ... More fog, low cloud and drizzle at times, but clear patches further west, lows about 2-4 C on average, some places near freezing if it clears overhead (but fog will thicken as a result).

    FRIDAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain developing, rather heavy at times, with potential for 15-25 mms. Winds picking up to southerly 15-30 mph. Remaining quite chilly in Ulster and coastal Leinster where winds more SE'ly. Foggy over most hills. Milder in the southwest by afternoon, highs there 11-13 C but otherwise about 9-11 C.

    SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, some low cloud and drizzle, mist, even periods of light rain by afternoon and evening, but vaguely spring-like with lows around 3 C and highs near 10 C.

    SUNDAY ... Not much change with cloud, drizzle, fog and some light rain, sunny breaks for a fortunate few, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

    MONDAY ... Showers, a bit milder again, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Spring-like warmth gradually setting in for a few days, and it could be quite nice once the cloud finally starts to break mid-week to about the first or second of March ... highs could top 14 C away from the cooler south and west coasts. Nights will be clear and a bit chilly with fog patches. This spell looks likely to transform into a period of clear, cooler but not that cold weather under strong high pressure. The eventual end of it all may be a strong northerly. If that happens around March 4-6 remember that this is a storm window of opportunity.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wed 16th was cloudy with a strong, rather cold breeze from the southwest, and brief sprinkles of rain, highs near 8 C. There is no real sign of spring here yet (sometimes by late February here you can see buds and the first spring flowers, but not yet, the snow line is only at 400 metres unlike last year with the Olympics here, oh well ...)

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER continues to astound with its sheer zonality, finally looking every bit the la Nina winter that many had expected all along (but it was much colder and snowier) ... warmth is spreading back into the east now from a very warm source in the central plains as low pressure moves towards Winnipeg, Manitoba. North and west of there, 10-20 cms of snow today in a strong northeast wind, about -20 C to the northwest of that, but 20-25 C in the warm sector of the low ... naturally a bit of severe weather is expected in the central plains although perhaps not a big outbreak as air masses are very dry. This is the low expected to barrel through the block and bring in the very mild air to Ireland (so give it a chance).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 18 February, 2011
    __________________________

    The outlook has not changed very much although I could mention that a drying trend next week might be slower and more confined to the south than some might have thought, perhaps including me. However, as I see very few changes, today's forecast will repeat the pattern of yesterday's forecast with some edited changes.

    TODAY ... Morning sunny breaks in some eastern counties, but generally cloudy with periods of rain developing, rather heavy at times, with potential for 15-25 mms. Winds picking up to southerly 15-30 mph. Remaining somewhat cooler in Ulster and coastal Leinster where winds more SE'ly. Foggy over most hills. Milder in the southwest by afternoon, highs there 11-13 C but otherwise about 9-11 C.

    TONIGHT ... Rain slowly tapering off to drizzle, foggy, rather mild, then clearing towards dawn, lows 3-6 C.

    SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, some sunny breaks, but also low cloud and drizzle, mist, even periods of light rain mainly south and west, by afternoon and evening, but vaguely spring-like with highs near 11C.

    SUNDAY ... Not much change with cloud, drizzle, fog and some light rain, sunny breaks for a fortunate few, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

    MONDAY ... Showers, a bit milder again, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Spring-like warmth gradually setting in for a few days, and it could be quite nice once the cloud finally starts to break mid-week to about the first or second of March ... highs could top 14 C away from the cooler south and west coasts. More cloud likely in west and north and possibly an interval of strong southwest winds as deep low pressure races by Connacht mid-week. This could have only localized effects so stay tuned. Nights will be clear in some parts of the south and east and a bit chilly with fog patches. This spell looks likely to transform into a period of clear, cooler but not that cold weather under strong high pressure. The eventual end of it all may be a strong northerly. If that happens around March 4-6 remember that this is a storm window of opportunity. The northerly at present looks more likely to be around the end of said period meaning that storminess may be deflected towards the North Sea (if you know who Murcie Boy is, perhaps he had the wrong month?)

    MTC'S LOCAL WEATHER ... we've had snow, hail, thunder, lightning and a few strong wind gusts in an unstable southerly flow ahead of Pacific low pressure interacting with cold air aloft. The high was about 5 C, when the snow and hail came down it cooled to 2-3 C. Locally there were numerous road accidents and they had to rescue people from a ski-lift that got stalled by power failures after lightning strikes. Otherwise, not a bad day.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... see previous day's comments, this is all unfolding on schedule ... much colder by late today in the east, 20 C mid-day but 0-3 C by midnight in NYC. Ontario is still mild this morning but could see blowing snow by afternoon (winds will become W 30-50 mph). Very cold across the prairies and plains states except Texas remains warmer.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Better prepare your snow shovel for next week mt!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 19 February, 2011
    ______________________________

    TODAY ... Fair and mild in general, some sunshine for most, a bit of hill fog and drifting fog banks near south coast, misty over west coast at times, in a moderate southerly flow 15-25 mph. Widely separated showers at times in western counties but most places dry other than morning mist and dew. The highs will average 11-13 C.

    TONIGHT ... Foggy, clouding over with periods of rain developing across the southwest spreading to west, south and central counties. Lows 3-6 C. Winds dropping off somewhat to SSW 10-20 mph.

    SUNDAY ... Foggy at times, light to moderate rain, drizzle, but some brighter intervals developing later, winds SSW 10-20 mph. Highs 10-12 C.

    MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, showers, mild. Lows 3-5 C and highs 11-13 C.

    TUESDAY ... Cloudy with showers or periods of rain, rather windy in Connacht but a steady SW 20-30 mph elsewhere. Lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Showers, breezy, lows near 4 and highs near 12 C.

    THURSDAY-FOLLOWING WEEKEND ... Some variance in models, probably quite a mild period and a good chance for dry weather in the south at times with some sun, mostly cloudy north, some rain at times, flow WSW and warmer than average, highs could reach 15 C.

    INTO EARLY MARCH ... This mild spell will come to an end eventually and perhaps around the first of March (models vary on timing), with a colder northerly interval likely to follow. Some predictions way out there have been looking wintry so it may not be totally over yet -- would be cautious planting in any case.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Friday 18th was sunny despite a lot of cloud buildups all around the region, a "dry slot" developed overhead and we'll take it after yesterday's kitchen sink program. Highs near 6 C. Cold and clear tonight, may look for northern lights soon (but a full moon).

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... the very mild air mass in the east has been pushed offshore tonight here and it is much colder now especially over the Great Lakes where very strong winds did some damage around Toronto and further north, snow squalls developed off Lake Huron and Lake Superior. Temperatures have generally dropped from about 15 C to -5 C since lunch time in Boston and New York City. Very cold across the central states except Texas, and the prairies. A new storm is developing over Colorado today. This will move to Ohio in two days and bring snow or freezing rain to the Great Lakes region, a slight rebound to mild on the east coast but this may lead to snow as fronts reset.

    Enjoy the weekend and the relatively pleasant weather today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 20 February, 2011
    _____________________________

    TODAY ... Cloudy for most places although some brighter intervals or brief sunny breaks possible in Leinster and east Ulster. Showery rain slowly spreading north and a bit further east from Kerry this morning, with potential for a few heavier bursts giving 10-15 mms locally and possibly a brief thunderstorm around Shannon north into Clare and later Galway, but only trace to 3 mms of rain are likely in much of central to eastern Ireland. Winds SSW 15-30 mph (but SE near the Irish Sea) and mild except for a few places near the east coast, generally 10-12 C for highs and 7-9 C east coast.

    TONIGHT ... Fog patches, any residual showers moving away during the evening, some clear breaks developing and lows generally 2-5 C, could see frost in some parts of the midlands, winds dropping off to light/variable.

    MONDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks, a bit cooler in most places, intervals of light rain breaking out by late morning across parts of the south and then dying off by late afternoon, as winds back around to east for a time, highs 8-10 C.

    TUESDAY ... Cloudy, showers or periods of rain, winds returning to a south to southwest direction possibly veering to WNW and quite mild with lows generally 3-6 C and highs 10-13 C.

    WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Unsettled across the north and northwest with showers, gusty winds (SW 30-45 mph) but partly cloudy, not as windy in the south and east, highs generally 10-13 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Rather breezy and unsettled on Friday 25th, with another interval of more settled weather for the south around the weekend and into the early part of March before a gradual turn to colder and showery weather in a northwest to north wind.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Saturday 19th was stunning (in more ways than one) with perfectly clear skies, fresh snow on the mountains, and unlimited visibility, although the sun feels warmer now it remains a bit chilly with a morning low of -2 C and an afternoon high of about 6 C.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... a more active period ahead as the bitter cold over the central states and prairies interacts with warm air in Texas and Oklahoma to produce a vigorous storm near Kansas City today, which will move to near Chicago Monday. This will set off a snowstorm further north and a band of freezing rain closer to the low's track. By late Monday and into Tuesday this storm will be redeveloping off the east coast and a second centre will form near Washington DC. This should set off heavy snow in places like Philadelphia and perhaps NYC but before that it will turn a bit milder again. If you watch the golf from L.A. "this evening" you'll perhaps see some showery weather that is moving through southern California.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 21 February, 2011
    __________________________

    TODAY ... Cloudy with a few bright intervals (mainly in the north) with outbreaks of rain this morning in south Kerry spreading to coastal Cork but likely staying offshore further east ... otherwise, a few scattered showers or outbreaks of very light rain or drizzle, average rainfalls 1-3 mms for most, about 5-10 mms in the far southwest. Highs 8-11 C. Feeling somewhat cooler due to an east wind off the Irish Sea in coastal Leinster.

    TONIGHT ... Clear breaks, fog patches and rather chilly, lows 1-4 C.

    TUESDAY ... Milder, periods of rain developing in a moderate westerly wind backing to SSW late in the day, highs 11-13 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Showery with some bursts of heavier rain, gusty S to SW winds 30-45 mph, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

    THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, very mild, breezy or locally windy ... showers in the northwest spreading as periods of heavier rain late in the day across western counties ... lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

    FRIDAY ... Breezy or windy, showers, turning a bit cooler by afternoon, lows near 9 C and highs near 12 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Variable cloud, showers, highs 8-11 C over the weekend, and a gradual cooling trend into early March, possibly turning quite cold as winds become more northerly (due to the retrogression or westward motion of high pressure away from Ireland).

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Sunday 20th was dry and chilly, with less sunshine due to a thick veil of higher cloud, highs only 4-5 C, and a keen southeast breeze. Snow in the forecast for us late Tuesday and Wednesday.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER on Monday will be dominated by a storm moving across the lower Great Lakes and southeast towards southeast PA and NJ. Parts of the inland northeast and southern Ontario will get 15-30 cms of snow from this low, and some freezing rain is likely close to its track. A second low will develop and follow somewhat further south on Tuesday, ending the mild spell over the southeast and the Mid-Atlantic states. Very cold air bottled up over central Canada will come flooding south as a result.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 22 February, 2011
    ____________________________

    TODAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain spreading gradually northeast, although some bright intervals this morning in Ulster ... rain ending towards mid-afternoon in southwest but continuing at least as showers elsewhere ... milder with highs 11-13 C, hill fog and winds SW 20-40 mph. Rainfalls will average 10-15 mms.

    TONIGHT ... Misty with fog, light rain at times, breezy, mild. Lows 6-9 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of light rain, winds SW 15 to 30 mph, highs 11-13 C.

    THURSDAY ... Early morning rain, then partial clearing to sunny intervals and very mild, some fog lingering near coasts, lows near 6 C and highs 12-14 C.

    Becoming quite windy later in the day, SW 20-40 mph increasing to 30-50 with some higher gusts, periods of rain overnight into Friday morning.

    FRIDAY ... Windy, showers, not quite as mild, lows near 7 C and highs 9-11 C.

    WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy, breezy, somewhat cooler with lows around 3-5 C and highs 8-10 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Variable with some showers, breezy, temperatures near average, possibly dropping a few degrees mid to late week (in early March) as flow becomes more northwest to northerly.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Monday 21st was cloudy and cold with afternoon snow and hail, leaving a slight slushy accumulation, and highs 3-4 C. More snow is likely here on Tuesday.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... snow in the past few hours across PA, NJ and spreading into MD towards Washington DC, will soon end and leave behind some accumulations in a strong northerly wind. Clearing and very cold further north and west, leading to much colder conditions for most regions this week.

    Another storm is timed for Friday-Saturday on the east coast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 23 February, 2011
    _______________________________

    TODAY ... Cloudy and mild with intervals of rain mostly in Connacht and Ulster, 3-7 mms on average there, brighter by afternoon with some sunny intervals developing, winds SSW 20-40 mph, highs 11-14 C.

    TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, mild, breezy, fog patches with dense fog over some coastal areas and hills, lows 6-10 C.

    THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy and mild with winds SSW 20-40 mph, highs 12-15 C. Periods of rain will sweep into the southwest after sunset.

    FRIDAY ... Early morning rain, heavy at times, blustery SSW winds 30-50 mph, lows 7-10 C then partial clearing, winds WSW 30-50 mph, highs 9-12 C.

    SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy, a few passing showers, cooler, lows around 3 C and highs around 8 C.

    SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, cool, morning lows 2-4 C with some patchy frost, highs 7-9 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Dry and a bit milder again, then some risk of a colder period developing on northerly winds (models are currently divided on this outcome), with the other likely outcome dry and near normal with slight risk of frosts.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Tuesday 22nd was sunny and cold with gusty NW winds and threatening showery buildups off to the north, but clear skies south. Snow is expected here late tonight and through the day (3-7 cms).

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER is now dominated by an extensive arctic air mass that has pushed the storm track well south, with the next strong low forming over the western plains states today and tracking towards the Ohio valley and east coast over the next two days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 24 February, 2011
    _________________________________

    TODAY ... Partly cloudy, warm sunny intervals in the south, east and central counties, more cloud from sea fog closer to west and north coasts, also near outer south coast ... highs 13-15 C except 10-13 C closer to coasts. Hazy with the sunshine but also one or two rogue showers possible mostly near west coast ... winds SSW 15-30 mph with higher gusts by late afternoon.

    TONIGHT ... Clouding over, rain after midnight in the west, reaching eastern counties by morning. Very mild, winds SW 20-40 mph, lows 7-10 C.

    FRIDAY ... Morning showers or periods of rain, partly cloudy by mid-day west and afternoon east, windy, turning slightly cooler. Highs 11-13 C. Winds WSW 30-50 mph.

    SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers mostly confined to northern counties at first, then intervals of rain sweeping across the south, some sleet or snow on high summits, breezy, winds WSW 20-40 mph, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

    SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, a few showers across the far north, otherwise dry, cool, lows 2-4 C with scattered light frost, highs 8-9 C.

    OUTLOOK ... The week is likely to start out dry and rather cool at least overnight due to clear skies, but a large temperature range may develop, with lows near -1 C to highs near 10 C or higher. This pattern may eventually transform into a cooler north to northeast flow with below normal temperatures.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wed 23rd was very chilly and windy with localized snowfalls, although not right around my location, but 15-30 cms fell in the Victoria BC region. It remains cloudy, windy and very cold tonight. Highs were only 2-3 C and it's currently -2 C.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Somewhat milder into most central states today ahead of slowly developing low pressure in Kansas-Nebraska region, cool although not exceptionally cold eastern U.S., very cold across most of Canada, storm track running from Oregon southeast to plains states may set off a blizzard across parts of Idaho, Utah and Wyoming.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 25 February, 2011
    ___________________________

    TODAY ... Morning showers in eastern counties should rapidly clear, with the associated cloud giving way to partly sunny skies for much of the mid-day and afternoon hours. It won't be quite as warm as yesterday, but highs may reach 11-13 C in a westerly breeze. Increasing cloud towards evening in western counties, ahead of evening to overnight showers.

    TONIGHT ... Becoming cloudy again with showers or longer periods of rain, some thunder possible, and lows 4-6 C in a westerly wind of 15-30 mph. Rainfalls 5-15 mms on average, heaviest in north central counties.

    SATURDAY ... Variable cloud once the morning showers push east, with some chance of further showers developing, rather chilly with highs 7-9 C in a W to NW wind of 15-30 mph. Some sleet or snow possible on highest summits.

    SUNDAY ... Bright but chilly, morning frosts in some rural districts, lows generally 1-3 C, highs 7-9 C.

    MONDAY - TUESDAY ... Sunny days, some frost or fog patches early morning, large temperature range likely, lows -3 to +1 C and highs 9-11 C.

    OUTLOOK ... If the cool, dry spell remains in place it should see a slight increase in daytime temperature, but there is also some chance of this spell ending in a colder northeast flow for a few days.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Thursday 24th was sunny and very cold (for here) with strong northeast winds, and highs only around -1 C. At 11 p.m. now it is almost -5 C.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... the main feature is a strong, developing low in Ohio moving towards southern New England. This will bring 10-20 cms of snow to some parts of upstate NY and northern New England and a tail end of snow after rain and thunder for areas further south today. Much colder air will sweep in for the weekend behind this fast-moving low. It remains very cold over most of western Canada and the north central U.S.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 26 February, 2011
    _____________________________

    TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, widespread showers, some with thunder and hail (more likely in western counties), and sleet or snow on summits ... highs 7-9 C (3-5 C on high terrain). Winds W 15-30 mph with some higher gusts in exposed western locations.

    TONIGHT ... Cloudy and cold with further showers, some turning wintry, although hail more likely than snow, lows generally 2-4 C, some isolated frosts where skies clear briefly.

    SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, some further showers although longer dry intervals and rather chilly, winds W 15-30 mph, highs near 8 C.

    MONDAY ... Mostly sunny and cool, morning frosts with lows -2 to +2 C and afternoon pleasant sunshine, highs 8-10 C, light northerly winds.

    TUESDAY ... Some cloud and even drizzle possible in coastal Connacht but otherwise mostly fair and dry with similar temperature range to Monday.

    OUTLOOK ... The high pressure is expected to remain close to Ireland for several days and if it does drift west, winds will return to a northeast direction with rather cool weather as a result. It seems likely to be a dry week for most. Some models are keeping the high pressure around for almost two weeks.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Friday 25th was sunny and unseasonably cold with a high near -1 C and a morning low near -9 C. No snow on the ground here, so the surface has frozen slightly.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The intensifying storm moved through New England Friday and is now pushing across Newfoundland. In its wake, cold and windy weather is spreading south towards the Gulf states but before it gets too far south another low will pull the fronts back north over the weekend and reload a similar situation, with the snow a bit further north into the Great Lakes region this time. So far this new disturbance is rather weak in Colorado and Wyoming.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 27 February, 2011
    ____________________________

    TODAY ... Partly cloudy and chilly with passing showers, some with hail and possibly a brief thundershower. Higher summits could see some snow. Winds westerly 15-30 mph and highs about 8-10 C. The average rainfall will be about 2-3 mms but some isolated showers could be heavy.

    TONIGHT ... Cloudy at first, clearing slowly, frost developing in some inland districts ... lows -3 to +2 C with light winds.

    MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, more sunshine likely in south and east as some patchy drizzle could develop late in the day near the outer west coast. Highs around 8-10 C.

    TUESDAY ... Following a morning frost with lows -3 to +1 C, the day will become partly cloudy (more sunshine than cloud in some southern and eastern regions), occasional patchy light rain or drizzle on the west and north coasts, highs near 9 C.

    WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Turning slightly warmer under mainly clear skies, still the risk of scattered frost but highs reaching 10-12 C, light winds.

    OUTLOOK ... The models seem to be converging on a scenario where the high pressure stays very close to Ireland for the first half of the month of March. If it does move a bit further west, there could be a colder north to northeast wind flow for a day or two, but generally, the outlook is for seasonable temperatures if perhaps a bit cool at night, and dry with considerable sunshine.

    MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Saturday 26th was very cold with snow that was rather sleety and came with very small pellet-like flakes that eventually gave a covering and enough to sweep off the pavement (2-3 cms perhaps), with temperatures about -2 C. Some drizzle mixed in closer to the coast.

    NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER continues rather quiet over this weekend with the major storm now almost clear of Newfoundland, and otherwise just a sprawling cold arctic high that has a return mild southerly flow setting up into the central plains states. A storm will develop late Sunday and move towards the lower Great Lakes. Snowfall from this storm is likely to be 15-30 cms across parts of Wisconsin, Michigan and Ontario into Quebec. Almost all of the northeast states will get into the warm sector of this storm on Sunday night and Monday, with temperatures rising to 12-15 C.


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