Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 1 March, 2010
_________________________

TODAY will be partly to mostly sunny, and the morning chill should fade to bring a reasonably mild mid-day high of about 7-9 C, with light southeast winds.

TONIGHT will once again be cold and locally foggy with lows of about -3 C in rural areas and near zero C in cities and coastal districts.

TUESDAY will bring increasing high cloud and the threat of some light rain near the west coast by afternoon, although it may stay offshore; other regions should remain dry but the sunshine will fade, and a rather chilly east to southeast wind will pick up, with highs near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY, periods of rain will develop as winds become moderate east then northeast, and temperatures will fall off gradually from near 6 C to about 2 or 3 C, allowing the rain to mix with snow on hills.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY, currently the winds do not look quite strong enough to bring any snow showers, as strong high pressure will be quite close to Ireland, but we can be more certain that it will turn very cold with sharp to severe frosts (lows of -4 to -7 C) and chilly in the mid-day sunshine (2-4 C for highs), although some northeast counties could turn cloudy at times.

The longer term outlook calls for a very gradual warming trend but likely staying rather frosty at night.

We had a few sunny breaks here after a mostly cloudy morning, and it was very mild at 12 C (on Sunday 28 Feb).

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 2 March, 2010
__________________________

TODAY will continue mostly dry but with increasing cloud on the west coast; there could be some drizzle, fog or light rain eventually near the Atlantic. Other districts will have some sunshine before higher cloud obscures the sun this afternoon. Highs today will be around 7 or 8 C.

TONIGHT will be much milder in western counties, but could still produce a touch of local frost in eastern Ireland as skies will tend to be partly cloudy with some clear intervals there. Western counties will see fog and light rain at times. Lows will range from 4 C in the west to -2 C in rural eastern Ireland although near 2 C in some towns and coastal locations.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with periods of rain in the west, spreading very slowly further east. It could remain dry on the east coast, but there is also some risk of the rain turning to sleet or snow on higher ground in central and possibly eastern counties. Highs for the day will range from about 7 C in the west to 4 C in the east and it may turn a bit colder by late afternoon.

THURSDAY will see a sharp morning frost followed by a partly to mostly sunny but cold daytime. The winds will be light northerly (east at times in southeast counties). Some of the snow or sleet from the previous day may continue for part of the morning on higher ground. The temperature range will be generally from lows near -3 C to highs near 4 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY is looking clear and quite cold, with sharp overnight frosts and some risk of freezing fog developing. Overnight lows in this period will be colder than -3 C to near -6 C and could drop even lower in a few spots. Highs during the period will be 4-6 C. The stronger March sun may make this cold a little more tolerable at mid-day.

Monday here was cloudy and mild with a high near 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 3 March, 2010
____________________________

TODAY will be overcast with light rain gradually spreading from western counties into central Ireland -- where it may turn to sleet or hill snow at times. Whatever reaches eastern counties may be more drizzle than rain, as amounts will drop off from 5-10 mms in the west to 0-2 mms in the east.

Highs today will be generally near 7 C but it will feel chilly due to a southeast wind of 15-30 mph.


TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy and small amounts of snow or sleet will continue to fall, as winds back somewhat to east or northeast 10-20 mph; temperatures will fall to about 2 C by midnight. Then some clearing may develop mostly in Ulster, and temperatures in these clearing areas could fall to -2 C and produce some icy sections on roads.

THURSDAY will be partly to mostly sunny although cloud may be rather slow to clear from the south and west in the morning (and there could be some lingering drizzle near coasts there). Highs will be only 3-5 C in a light to moderate northeast wind.

FRIDAY will have a cold start after a clear night, lows will be near -4 C with patchy freezing fog. Cloud will increase from north to south during the day and there could be very light falls of sleet or snow with highs near 4 C.

SATURDAY is likely to be less cloudy with a very cold start (lows near -6 C) and highs only 2-4 C in partly sunny, nearly calm conditions.

SUNDAY will have variable high cloud cover and more cold temperatures similar to Saturday's.

There is no great change indicated into early next week.

Meanwhile, Tuesday here was cloudy with sunny breaks and very mild. I heard that officially we were just a half degree below the previous record which was 14.4 C at the local airport. This could be because half the world is currently leaving there on aircraft. :cool:

It is presently snowing in parts of North Carolina and Virginia as a strong low pulls away from the coast there.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 4 March, 2010
___________________________

The basic idea is that strong high pressure will settle in very close to Ireland for about a week, so the weather will basically be rather cold and dry.

TODAY, cloud will become scattered and sunshine will begin to dominate, with rather light northeast winds, and highs near 5 C at best (some places may remain below freezing until past 10 a.m.).

TONIGHT will be clear and very cold with rural areas dropping to lows of -6 C in some places; freezing fog may become a problem. However, the north will cloud over during the night so it will become milder after midnight there; some light sleet or drizzle could develop in parts of Ulster.

FRIDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and continuing cold, with light showers of sleet or snow in a few places (but largely dry). Highs will be 3-5 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will be mostly sunny daytime, clear at night, with freezing fog in some locations. The morning lows will be -4 to -6 C except near coasts and in large cities (-1 C), and daytime highs will be near 5 C.

NEXT WEEK will see very little change in this pattern although as the high stagnates, daytime highs could rise a degree or two, so that it may begin to feel a bit more spring-like. With the sharp frosts, spring blooming will fall further behind normal pace.

On the other hand, where I live, spring is already well underway. We had a pleasant sunny day with a high near 10 C. The cherry blossoms (which are a big feature of our spring) are 2-3 weeks ahead of the usual pace and are fully opened already.

Joe Public

We are still waiting for the daffodils, they are generally a few weeks behind.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 5 March, 2010
________________________

TODAY will be partly cloudy in the northeast, and sunny elsewhere, with light winds and cold temperatures, reaching highs of only 4-6 C.

TONIGHT will be clear again, with very cold overnight lows and patchy freezing fog developing. Lows will be about -6 C in rural areas and -2 C in coastal and mid-town locations.

SATURDAY will be another calm, mostly sunny day with highs of about 5-7 C.

SUNDAY will see a bit more wind as the high weakens slightly, and allows a cold southeast breeze to develop. This should remain dry but one or two sleet showers could develop near Wexford and Wicklow. The temperature range will continue about the same, lows near -5 C and highs near 4-6 C.

From MONDAY to at least THURSDAY, this pattern seems locked in place, so the cool dry spell will continue for at least that long. The models as usual want to warm up the flow after a while, but as this is their default position we can't really place too much reliance on it.

The weather also continues similar here day after day, except that we're in a milder pattern, but other than that, not much is happening in our weather. The highs continue to be in the 9-11 C range here.

It's currently hard to find any really interesting weather in North America; the Mediterranean seems to have some active, stormy patterns.

GSF

Tonight is turning out to be a hell of a lot milder in Dublin than forecast. What happened to make that happen?

Deep Easterly

GSF wrote: »

Tonight is turning out to be a hell of a lot milder in Dublin than forecast. What happened to make that happen?

Probably due to the close proximity of that bank of cloud that is west of the main front over the North Sea:



Temp fairly static here too on 4.4c currently despite clear skies.

From Ashford north to Dublin including annamoe is in or about 7c :eek:
Here it's 3c with variable cloud and Tullow is below minus one.

Quite a variation within 100 miles.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 6 March, 2010
__________________________

Thanks to the crew for stepping in with those explanations -- I noticed that it had warmed up a little more than expected on Friday (Mullingar went from
-5 to +10, quite a large "diurnal range."). Another feature that will change the forecast slightly is the cloud circulating around the high. Parts of eastern England are going to turn a lot colder today and snow could move into parts of Kent and East Anglia. But there won't be much change in the weather further west in the UK, or in Ireland.

TODAY will probably be more cloudy than yesterday in eastern counties, with sunny breaks, and longer intervals of sun further west. Highs will be about 8 or 9 C for most, but the southeast could stay a bit colder due to the cloud.

TONIGHT will likely clear more extensively and it will become very cold again, with lows near -5 C and scattered freezing fog (-2 C in Dublin and around the southeast coast). There is a slight risk of snow showers near the Wexford and Wicklow coasts.

SUNDAY will be a bit colder in the daytime as a slight southeast wind continues to circulate the colder air near the Channel towards Ireland. This will result in variable amounts of cloud in the southeast with some risk of snow or sleet showers (light mostly), and more sunny conditions further west and north; highs will range from about 4-6 C in the southeast, to 7-9 C in Connacht and Kerry.

MONDAY to THURSDAY, this rather cool high will stay close to Ireland and with the flow slightly southeast or south, this may add a bit of a chill near the south and east coasts. However, it should stay dry, with at least some sunshine each day, and the nights will remain generally frosty.

The charts are currently suggesting the cool high will retrograde (move west) and allow a chilly north to northeast flow to develop later in the week.

We've enjoyed another sunny, mild day here with a high of about 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 7 March, 2010
________________________

TODAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks this morning, turning more sunny as the afternoon arrives, except possibly near the southeast coast, where there is a slight chance of sleety showers or a snow shower on higher ground. There will be enough of a southeast breeze to keep it rather chilly today, with highs of 7-9 C.

TONIGHT will see clear skies more extensively again and very cold overnight lows of about -5 C rural, -2 C in Dublin and near the south and east coasts. Fog may develop in valleys.

MONDAY will be partly sunny and cool again, but with lighter winds returning, so it may be quite pleasant at mid-day with highs of 7-9 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will continue much the same, cold overnight, sunny to partly cloudy in the daytime and rather cool with highs generally 7-9 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY could be a bit colder again with more of a northerly wind developing and variable cloud, possible sleety showers and highs only around 5-7 C.

Models are generally showing a bit of a warming trend after mid-month, with some highs of 12-14 C indicated in the following week.

That's pretty much what we've had here for several weeks already, and today was a very clear and mild day with a high of about 12 C.

Deep Easterly

An extremely weak trough crossed the country late last night from the ESE. Brought no more than a narrow band of cloud (hence unimpressive mins last night and this morning), but it did introduce a continental airflow over Ireland. This influence will be noticeable by low humidity levels today, as well as by a light to moderate Euro haze, which enhances the aesthetics of the atmosphere and can lead to spectacular sunrises and sunsets should the sky remain reasonably clear.

Even if cloudy conditions be dominant, it will still look nicer, more serene and mellow. Not sure how long this will last, probably a couple of days, but this type of weather verges on perfection.

Others may disagree. :cool:

pauldry

7mm of rain so far this Spring as the grass stays yellow. Remember when Ireland used to be green! No rain till at least 11th March

DOCARCH

pauldry wrote: »

7mm of rain so far this Spring as the grass stays yellow. Remember when Ireland used to be green! No rain till at least 11th March

Indeed - just back from Kildare and it's amazing how brown all the grass is. Grass along the motorway verges and banks hasn't a hint of green in it. This combined with the dry air and quality of sun light, it really felt like mid west USA.

Also to add to the scene, a good cover of snow still on the Wicklow Mountains with Lugnaquilla fully covered.

It's actually the snow and the frost that turned the grass brown by the way not the lack of rain.
It looks like the whole island has been sprayed with roundup.

Graces7

Was noticing today how green the fields are up here....

rc28

Deleted User wrote: »

It's actually the snow and the frost that turned the grass brown by the way not the lack of rain.
It looks like the whole island has been sprayed with roundup.

Yep, it's pure frost burn - the ground itself actually isn't that dry with the usual winter floods still in most fields around here. Remember for some areas it has been the coldest winter since 1963 so no wonder the land is looking so brown. With another week of very cold nights (down to -6 apparently) ahead this won't change anytime soon.

Pangea

All the fields here are very barren aswell, no leaves on the trees, no green to be seen. No sign of spring.
By the time they start growing it will be time they start falling again :pac:

redalicat

DOCARCH wrote: »

Indeed - just back from Kildare and it's amazing how brown all the grass is. Grass along the motorway verges and banks hasn't a hint of green in it. This combined with the dry air and quality of sun light, it really felt like mid west USA.

Also to add to the scene, a good cover of snow still on the Wicklow Mountains with Lugnaquilla fully covered.

Yep, looks like Californian desert, which is where I'm originally from. Hadn't realised until today how I am used to seeing perpetual green here. I forgot what it's like to live in constant brown and glad I don't anymore.

Pangea

Yeah thats true, I was in California during the summer where all the celebs live and all the barren brown fields was quite distasteful. Give me the green of ireland any day (and an umbrella) :pac:

Joe Public

The brown is only showing in long grass that has gone dormant, short grass is still green but not growing yet.

M.T. Cranium

Looking at dew points and the current temperatures, would expect freezing fog to develop anywhere that reaches -5 or -6 C before sunrise.

Weather here has turned colder with occasional rain, expecting our first below normal daytime temperature in a long time (possibly since before Christmas) on Monday (normal is 9 C, predicted high about 5 C).

Somehow I imagine this pattern (in western Europe that is) will lead to warm, dry spells in April and May. Not much science behind that, just what seems to follow cool, dry spring setups. Nothing much changes but the higher sun angle begins to add daytime heating to the setup, and the shorter nights have less time to radiate that warmth back out to space. So I'll make a Ken-like stab at a spring forecast here -- gradually warming to above normal temperatures, and relatively dry. This covers the period now to end of May.

If I had to guess the summer pattern this early, I would say unsettled and slightly warmer than normal. This is based mostly on analogue years. I don't attach a lot of confidence to that, but I don't see any clear signals of anything else. By unsettled, I mean less sunshine and more rain than average, not necessarily a washout or deluge.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 8 March, 2010
_________________________

TODAY will eventually warm up to about 7 or 8 C for most, and could get as warm as 10 C in western counties, under mostly sunny skies. There will be a slightly chilly SE wind near the south and east coasts.

TONIGHT will be mostly clear and cold again, although there may be a bit more cloud around and lows may average more like -3 C.

TUESDAY is likely to be partly cloudy with light winds, and highs near 9 C.

WEDNESDAY will be similar with lows near -3 C and highs near 9 C.

THURSDAY, expect some increase in cloud and a few spits of light rain in Connacht and Ulster mostly. Winds will continue rather light but will pick up to a W to NW direction at 10-15 mph in the north. Highs will reach 7-8 C after a morning low of -2 to zero C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY is likely to be a rather cloudy interval with scattered light showers, some places remaining dry. Highs will be about 8 C.

My weather has changed considerably, with the long mild and dry spell ending with some rain on Sunday, and colder temperatures -- it is only 3 C outside at present and mixed rain and snow is likely around here on Monday (snow above 200m).

Melbourne, Australia had a severe hail and wind storm over the weekend. I had a look at the radar loop and the storm moved in from the northeast rather than the northwest which would be the more usual direction there for severe weather. This is rather like the severe storm that hit Dublin (from the southeast) last summer.

Graces7

Contact with "family" in Newfie.."It's warm today. only minus 7..."

You can get used to anything... Am finding this here now too.

So warm in the sun this afternoon though and clouds of midges around.

M.T. Cranium

Yes, to put it into perspective, if Toronto had recorded exactly the same temperatures and precip as any part of Ireland (excluding high summits with a lot more snow) this winter, it would have worked out to be the mildest and least snowy winter on record there, and in fact, if it doesn't snow again this would be the least snowy winter on record at Toronto (beating the record of about 21 inches set in 1952-53). It's expected that this record will stand, as realistically there is a month left in the snowfall season and the pattern is not outrageously mild.

And remember, Toronto is at the same latitude as the French riviera (43.8 N). Even in parts of Ohio that are near 40 degrees N, a snow-deprived winter would produce 10-15 inches in total. I'm not sure what the total snowfalls have been around Ireland this winter, but I am guessing 15-20 inches for those parts that saw significant snowfalls, 20-30 inches on some of the higher slopes and perhaps 40-80 inches up on the higher summits? Some places probably saw much less, for example, I don't recall more than 2-3 inches of snow in Waterford.

The range of weather conditions in mid-winter at Toronto (which has records back to 1840) have not changed a lot, but there is a noticeable warming from 19th to 20th centuries for March and April data. In March 1870 they recorded five feet of snow, and in 1875, there were significant snowfalls on May 1st and October 17th. It's interesting that in this natural example of climate change (because it took place mostly from 1889 to 1914 in terms of a shift) the biggest changes took place in the transitional seasons. September and October are also noticeably cooler in the 19th century than in the 20th century records. But mid-winter and mid-summer are more comparable.

As you can see from the above, I have not spotted any updates for the current forecast (yet). Let's hope those midges have awoken too early and succumb to the frost tonight.

Graces7

One thing Ireland will always have in utter abundance is midges... Believe me on that!

Nasty wee biters. Hungry they are too.

But it has been and still is a hard winter for we who are not used to this.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Yes, to put it into perspective, if Toronto had recorded exactly the same temperatures and precip as any part of Ireland (excluding high summits with a lot more snow) this winter, it would have worked out to be the mildest and least snowy winter on record there, and in fact, if it doesn't snow again this would be the least snowy winter on record at Toronto (beating the record of about 21 inches set in 1952-53). It's expected that this record will stand, as realistically there is a month left in the snowfall season and the pattern is not outrageously mild.

And remember, Toronto is at the same latitude as the French riviera (43.8 N). Even in parts of Ohio that are near 40 degrees N, a snow-deprived winter would produce 10-15 inches in total. I'm not sure what the total snowfalls have been around Ireland this winter, but I am guessing 15-20 inches for those parts that saw significant snowfalls, 20-30 inches on some of the higher slopes and perhaps 40-80 inches up on the higher summits? Some places probably saw much less, for example, I don't recall more than 2-3 inches of snow in Waterford.

The range of weather conditions in mid-winter at Toronto (which has records back to 1840) have not changed a lot, but there is a noticeable warming from 19th to 20th centuries for March and April data. In March 1870 they recorded five feet of snow, and in 1875, there were significant snowfalls on May 1st and October 17th. It's interesting that in this natural example of climate change (because it took place mostly from 1889 to 1914 in terms of a shift) the biggest changes took place in the transitional seasons. September and October are also noticeably cooler in the 19th century than in the 20th century records. But mid-winter and mid-summer are more comparable.

As you can see from the above, I have not spotted any updates for the current forecast (yet). Let's hope those midges have awoken too early and succumb to the frost tonight.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 9 March, 2010
___________________________

TODAY will continue sunny with some patchy cloud drifting in from the southeast by this afternoon. Although it's very cold in rural Ireland this morning, it should warm up reasonably fast to about 9 C and a few places could hit 11 C today. With very little wind, this may feel quite warm in a sunny spot.

TONIGHT will be yet another clear, cold night with lows generally -3 to -5 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly to mostly sunny and mild again by mid-day, with highs of 9-11 C.

THURSDAY will see more cloud than sun, and after morning lows of about -2 C the afternoon highs will reach 10 C -- there could be very light showers in some northern counties by afternoon. Winds will pick up slightly to WNW 10-15 mph.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY, the weather is going to stay rather placid, in a light northwest flow that will be mostly cloudy with a few clear breaks, the occasional light shower mainly in the north, and a temperature range from lows near 1 C to highs near 11 C. This will at least get the vegetation thinking about spring, but clearly some rain and warmer weather would be helpful now.

That could begin to enter the picture some time next week, although there are no firm indications of exceptional warmth. It looks like the average high next week might be around 12 C which is relatively mild for mid-March.

Where I live, we had a mostly sunny day despite a few showers around the region, but those were mixed sleet or snow because it was only about 4 C at mid-day, and currently it has fallen to -2 C (at 10:30 pm). As the spring blossoms are already fully out here, we don't really want to see much snow but higher suburban areas could see some -- down closer to sea level we have had exactly one day with snow this winter, and that produced about 2-3 cms, easily the least snowfall in any winter of recent times around here.

Quite a snowstorm raging across parts of northern Greece, Bulgaria and Macedonia today.

Graces7

Just heard re the sleet and snow in BC..

You may get more yet....

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 10 March, 2010
___________________________

True, it has turned a bit colder here Graces, but nothing fell from the sky in my neighbourhood. It's hit or miss sprinkles on the radar, but the snow line has come well down from about 1200m to about 200m and it's currently about 2 or 3 C (but cloudy so it won't fall lower). Expecting rain here tomorrow because of a slightly milder southerly flow, but could snow not too far up above my location. I am only 120m above sea level, some of the higher suburbs are 300-400 metres.

Well, getting to the Irish forecast, it really hasn't changed much ....

TODAY will continue mostly sunny, although there is some low cloud near the east coast and patches of that could drift some distance inland around Dublin and Meath at times. Most other counties will stay sunny and the highs will once again rebound to about 10-11 C.

TONIGHT there may be more of this low cloud forming and moving inland from Ulster and the east coast, as well as in parts of Connacht. Clear areas further inland could still see a sharp frost with lows near -4 C but under the low cloud it will probably stay above freezing, 2-3 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks, and winds will drift around to NW 10-15 mph which may keep west and north coast districts under low cloud with drizzle, while further inland it stays partly cloudy, although very light sprinkly showers are possible there too. Highs will be about 10-11 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and occasional light showers mainly in Ulster and north central inland counties. The temperature range will be about zero to 2 C for overnight lows, and 9-12 C for daytime highs.

THE WEEKEND is looking reasonably pleasant with partly cloudy skies, just the slight chance of a brief shower mostly Saturday morning, and temperatures in the same range as Friday (above).

NEXT WEEK is looking a bit milder still, with highs possibly 12-14 C developing in a south to southwest flow, but with cooler sea breezes becoming a feature near the south coast.

Mentioned my local weather at the start ... it actually felt cold outside today but with not much wind, it was just a minor change, still looks very spring-like with the trees well along and the spring foliage generally fully out now. If we had a heavy wet snow it would bring all of these blossoms down, which would be a shame. However, it can snow here as late as May 10th on rare occasions, no doubt it will this year just to balance things out.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 11 March, 2010
___________________________

TODAY will bring a mixture of cloud and hazy sunshine with increasing cloud later in northern counties; there may eventually be some patchy light rain mainly in Connacht. Highs will reach 10-11 C with winds turning NW 10-15 mph.

TONIGHT will probably be less frosty than previous nights although not entirely frost-free, southern inland counties could stay relatively clear and drop to about -2 C, while the range further north under cloud and patchy drizzle will be 2-4 C.

FRIDAY will bring intervals of cloud and sunshine with more patchy light rain developing in the north at times, winds WNW 10-20 mph, and highs of about 9 C in the north to 11 C south.

Both days on the WEEKEND will be partly cloudy with similar temperatures to Friday, highs of about 10-12 C and morning lows of -1 to +3 C. There could still be some brief showers on Saturday morning, but amounts will be trace to 2 mms.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with highs near 12 C and lows of about 2-4 C. There could be some light rain in western counties by Tuesday in a light SE to S wind 10-20 mph.

From that point on, there could be some heavier showers mid-week but then a reload of the present pattern, with near normal temperatures prevailing.

The weather here on Wednesday was cold and wet in the morning, with rain at my elevation but snow just slightly higher up (2-3 cms), then some clearing to partly cloudy skies and highs near 7 C. Anyone heading for the eastern USA can expect several days of rain and strong E winds as a slow-moving low approaches from the Tennessee valley.