Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 8:15 p.m.
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Just a note to say that there may be a considerable adjustment to the outlook for next week, the models today have been coming around to a much colder scenario. As it's more than five days away, I will wait for the morning forecast to finalize this, but there could be a return to cold and snow (more significant than the colder spell later this week) as early as Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Enjoying a mild, sunny day here, and in fact heading out into it (wish me luck). :cool:

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 27 January, 2010
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TODAY will be milder with variable amounts of cloud, a stronger W to NW breeze developing, and a slight risk of showers developing. Highs will reach 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with occasional showers, strong WNW winds 20-40 mph and lows near 5 C.

THURSDAY will continue windy with showers, still rather mild at about 7-8 C, with winds WNW 30-50 mph, gusting stronger at times by evening. There could be some hail or thunder with a strong frontal passage around 9 pm to midnight.

FRIDAY will turn much colder with temperatures falling from early morning to mid-day, levelling off near 2 C as showers turn to sleet or snow, with winds NNW 25-45 mph. Snowfall amounts will generally be light except on some northern hills.

SATURDAY will continue very cold with strong northerly winds at times, and passing showers of hail, sleet or snow. The temperature range will be about
-3 to +3 C. Winds will be northerly 20-40 mph. A more organized band of 1-2 cms of snow is possible by evening.

SUNDAY will be cold and windy, although moderating in the west coastal districts. There may be more snow mainly in Ulster and east coast districts. Highs will vary from near 3 C east to near 7 C west.

MONDAY-TUESDAY will turn milder with occasional light rain and moderate S to SW winds, highs near 7 C.

From WEDNESDAY to about SUNDAY, another severe cold period with snow is possible. Stay tuned for details, as confidence is currently moderate rather than high on this development.

glimmerman123

I just listened to the six one news weather by John Eagleton and he says that indications are that temperatures will return to normal next week after this short cold spell. Looks like our weather will be coming back in from the Atlantic. I am no weather expert but it looks like we might be settling into our normal Winter pattern. Three or four cold days followed by several days of mild weather and then followed by another short cold spell. I hope i am wrong and this cold spell next weekend lasts for more than three or four days.

M.T. Cranium

The models have backed off somewhat from their most aggressive depictions of returning cold (after Wed 3rd) but there are still indications of some cold and even snow potential around the weekend of the 6th-7th that will have to be assessed -- right now there are conflicting signals with some favouring a cold month, some a mild month, and the most realistic LRF for February would have to talk about spells of above and below normal temps, but with so much strong high pressure lingering in Russia, the cold machine has not been shut down and put in the shed by any means.

I am fairly confident that Monday to about Wednesday now will be milder than much of the past week. Beyond that, the main question is, does it cool back down to values similar to this coming weekend, or colder than that?

I'll speculate as I did in the other thread, that there is one more significant cold spell and snowfall event to come (past this weekend which looks fairly minor by comparison). Of course, that's not saying much, it could snow in April or even May. :cool:

Danno

I think that the models are struggling with the MWW of the Arctic heights. As more and more time passes by I think we'll see the models gradually return to the cold scenario. As ever, more runs are needed.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 28 January, 2010
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TODAY will remain comparatively mild with a steady NW wind backing to a strong westerly by this evening, and showers or periods of rain developing. Temperatures will stay in the 8-10 C range for most places until midnight or so, then will fall off sharply. Winds will increase from NW 15-30 mph to W 30-50 mph (strongest gusts in Mayo and later Kerry may reach 60 mph by late evening). Rainfalls of 3-5 mms can be expected.

TONIGHT, as indicated, windy and turning colder after midnight, with winds starting out WNW 30-55 mph then veering to NNW 20-40 mph as temperatures slide down to about 3 C by morning. Showers may be thundery with hail at times, then start to mix with sleet or snow on hills by morning (not expecting snow near sea level).

FRIDAY will be windy and quite cold with passing showers of hail, sleet or snow. There may be some longer sunny intervals in the south. Highs will be about 3 to 5 C but it will feel quite cold due to the NNW winds 20-40 mph.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy and cold with a sharp frost likely in the morning, icy patches on roads, then more mixed wintry showers possible, although it won't be as windy as Friday for most. The temperature range will be about -3 to +4 C. Winds will be NW 15-30 mph.

SUNDAY will be similar to the above but there may be a more organized period of sleet or wet snow in the early morning. Winds will be NW 20-35 mph.
The temperature range will be about -2 to +5 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY will see the new month in on a milder note, although only slightly so, with some showers in the mix especially on Tuesday when winds go back around to a more NW'ly direction briefly. By Wednesday the first influences of a strong continental high advancing from Scandinavia will be felt in the form of cool southeast winds but in general, the temperature range from Monday to Wednesday should be about normal, highs near 7 or 8 C and lows a little above freezing for most, light frosts still possible though.

There are indications that this colder air mass will force its way through atmospheric chaos to reach the UK and then Ireland at some point around Thursday to the following weekend. When or if this happens, temperatures could be back down near freezing with a risk of snow. As this remains quite uncertain, I would advise you to check the ongoing discussion threads in the forum if you want more opinions and updates on model runs this far out.

Wednesday here was a mild, pleasant day with some sunny intervals, lots of cloud at about 700 metres mainly off to the north hugging the mountains, and highs near 7 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 29 January, 2010
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TODAY, the strongest winds have now come and gone but it will remain rather gusty this morning as the wind becomes more NNW'ly at 20-40 mph. Colder air will soon make itself evident as widely scattered showers begin to mix with hail and even snow especially in Ulster which could see some heavier snow at times. Elsewhere, snow will probably only accumulate on a few hills but hail could come down heavily at times. There will also be some sunny intervals. Temperatures will continue to fall slowly and level off around 3 C, then fall further by evening.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and cold with a few more passing sleet, hail or snow showers. Lows will be about -3 C and there could be some icy roads in places (although closer to +1 C in some western coastal areas). Winds will drop off in many inland locations but stay in the 20-30 mph range in more exposed locations. Expect roads to become slippery or even icy in spots.

SATURDAY will be partly sunny but with a few widely separated showers of hail or snow. Highs will be near 3-4 C with 6 C in far western coastal areas. It won't be as windy as today, but windy enough to add some chill. There could be a more organized area of sleet or snow by evening or midnight.

SUNDAY will be similar, partly cloudy with mixed wintry showers and a temperature range of -3 to +4 C.

MONDAY will turn a bit milder, but there could be some early morning snow or sleet in eastern counties before that happens; otherwise, there could be a little light rain or drizzle with the milder air that will boost temperatures to about 6-8 C on westerly winds of 20-30 mph.

TUESDAY will be showery and rather mild with a temperature range of about 2 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will probably be a dry day with variable amounts of cloud, light winds possibly from the east or southeast, and a bit of a chill returning although not too severe, with a slight morning frost and afternoon highs near 6 C.

The indications for a colder turn have actually increased slightly in the new guidance. We are now going to have to place the period Thursday to about Monday 8th on watch for a return to significant cold and possibly a bit of snow by Sunday, although the pressures will generally be rather high (according to this latest info) and so most of the colder spell should be dry and frosty. More about that through the weekend, I'm sure.

Thursday here brought a little light rain and mild temperatures near 7 C.

A significant snow and freezing rain storm has been moving through the south central U.S. and will be moving into the southeast today and Saturday. This is the deep low shown on the models approaching Greenland by Tuesday. The ice was quite severe in Oklahoma, and snowfalls of up to 10-15 inches are being predicted for parts of the mid-south around Memphis TN east towards North Carolina. This snow will probably miss the northeast U.S. but could catch Washington DC briefly. It has turned bitterly cold in the northeast today and Boston had thunder-snow with a cold front earlier. This is with the low shown near Newfoundland by tonight on the models.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 30 January, 2010
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TODAY will be less windy but quite cold with a few isolated snow or hail showers, most likely in Ulster. Winds will be NNW at about 10-20 mph with some higher gusts. Highs will be about 2-4 C. Watch for icy patches on some roads to at least late this morning.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with any clear skies leading to sharp frost and possible freezing fog, and lows near -5 C, however, after midnight some cloud may spread in from the north and there could be a few areas of light snow before morning. Temperatures may rise somewhat to about -2 C with this cloud spreading in.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with some longer sunny intervals developing by afternoon, and it will remain cold, with wintry showers possible by afternoon and evening in Connacht. Winds will pick up again to NW 15-30 mph. Highs will reach 2-4 C.

MONDAY will be overcast and milder (eventually) with periods of sleet turning to light rain, and winds backing to WSW 15-30 mph. The lowest temperatures will be about -1 C just after midnight while the highs will reach 7-8 C by late afternoon.

TUESDAY will be cloudy with showers or periods of light rain, and milder, with highs near 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will be overcast with fog and drizzle, highs near 7 C.

The weather is likely to turn colder in stages from Thursday to about Sunday; there is still quite a bit of uncertainty about how much colder it may become, but some severe frosts and snow may occur eventually in this stretch or possibly a bit later into the following week.

Friday here was cloudy and mild with rain developing late afternoon and evening; the high was about 11 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 31 January, 2010
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TODAY will continue quite cold and will become rather cloudy with outbreaks of snow possible especially in Ulster and later in the Dublin area. This snow may mix with sleet or hail but in any case amounts will be fairly slight (1-2 cms) and showery, with some brighter intervals. Highs today will be 2-4 C, and winds NW 15-30 mph adding some chill.

TONIGHT there may be outbreaks of snow or sleet with a weak warm front edging east; again, the more persistent snow may occur in Ulster. By morning there could be some light rain or drizzle in the southwest and west. Temperatures will tend to stabilize near -2 C east, +1 C west and then rise slowly.

MONDAY will see the last of any sleet or snow moving out by mid-day in the northeast, then it should become milder with intervals of light rain or drizzle, mist or hill fog, and highs near 7 C with winds W backing to SW 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY will be overcast with showers in most areas, mixing with sleet or snow over higher parts of the north, as temperatures remain steady near 5 C in the north and 8 C in the southwest, 6-7 C elsewhere.

WEDNESDAY will continue rather mild with showers, and highs near 7 C.

From this point on, the latest guidance tends to suppress the cold air being discussed for the end of the week or next weekend; this may yet again change but the current indications are that the cold will stay in Europe, the Atlantic mild southwest flow will strengthen again, and the two systems will interact to pump in some milder air from the south. So the general idea would be rain and mild near the end of the week, and possibly even milder into the weekend -- but these solutions are not certain yet, so check out a few other sources during the day and see how things are evolving. I may not be able to update this again until Monday morning.

We've had another mild, showery day here (on Saturday) with a high near 10 or 11 C.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday, 9 p.m.
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The weak warm front approaching looks fairly dry, so that any overnight cloud or outbreaks of snow would likely be confined to hilly parts of the northwest. This trend of a rather dry warm frontal passage further east during the day may continue through tomorrow, but I will update that situation in the early morning.

The models are evidently still pointing away from the cold outbreak scenario and towards rather mild weather for Ireland in the five to ten day time frame.

Another mild, showery day here, about 10-11 C at mid-day.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 1 February, 2010
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TODAY will be mostly cloudy with patchy drizzle or light rain (possibly mixing with sleet over hills in the north at first), but it will be turning somewhat milder by afternoon, and there may be some brighter intervals. Highs will be near 6 C in the northeast to 8 C southwest.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy and there could be some patchy frost but nothing too severe, with lows -1 to +3 C.

TUESDAY will be cloudy with more light rain developing, and highs near 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring periods of rain and fog developing, with highs near 7 C.

THURSDAY will be showery with stronger SW winds developing, and highs near 9 C.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY is looking like a rather mild and showery period, with some risk of a heavy rainfall during the period, winds increasing to SW 30-45 mph at times, and highs in the 10-12 C range.

The colder air that was being discussed for this time period is being held back now because of a much stronger mid-Atlantic low pressure area that will approach western regions but is not expected to make landfall or bring its very strong winds ashore.

Eventually the models do show this mild spell fading and some chance for colder air towards the middle or end of the following week but that's only a low-confidence forecast at this stage.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 2 February, 2010
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TODAY will be milder with periods of rain, heavier this morning in eastern counties and parts of the south, as a drier period develops in Connacht before more rain by late in the day there. Winds throughout will be westerly 15-30 mph, rainfalls 5-15 mms, and highs 7-9 C.

TONIGHT will be foggy and mild with drizzle or light rain, lows near 4 C.

WEDNESDAY will be misty or foggy on hills, with occasional rain, and highs of about 9 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY will continue rather unsettled, and showery, with highs of about 8-10 C.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY are looking even milder at this point with stronger SW winds developing, and periods of rain, with highs to 12 C.

NEXT WEEK is probably going to remain mild, with the colder air being discussed (or promised on previous model runs) being held back to the north even of Scotland; the outcome is still rather uncertain but the models have returned to the pre-2009 habit of backing off a day at a time on a cold easterly -- the colder air could eventually break through so would possibly expect a day or two of wintry weather near mid-month some time.

The mild, showery weather continues here (9-10 C), much to the chagrin of the Olympic organizers -- the main alpine sites are fine because they are quite high up, but some events closer to Vancouver are requiring some major action to replace melted snow. Should work out okay but we have had the mildest January on record here, apparently.

Graces7

Our "family" in Vancouver say we have had their winter this year.... Snow wise...

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Tuesday, 2 February, 2010
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TODAY will be milder with periods of rain, heavier this morning in eastern counties and parts of the south, as a drier period develops in Connacht before more rain by late in the day there. Winds throughout will be westerly 15-30 mph, rainfalls 5-15 mms, and highs 7-9 C.

TONIGHT will be foggy and mild with drizzle or light rain, lows near 4 C.

WEDNESDAY will be misty or foggy on hills, with occasional rain, and highs of about 9 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY will continue rather unsettled, and showery, with highs of about 8-10 C.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY are looking even milder at this point with stronger SW winds developing, and periods of rain, with highs to 12 C.

NEXT WEEK is probably going to remain mild, with the colder air being discussed (or promised on previous model runs) being held back to the north even of Scotland; the outcome is still rather uncertain but the models have returned to the pre-2009 habit of backing off a day at a time on a cold easterly -- the colder air could eventually break through so would possibly expect a day or two of wintry weather near mid-month some time.

The mild, showery weather continues here (9-10 C), much to the chagrin of the Olympic organizers -- the main alpine sites are fine because they are quite high up, but some events closer to Vancouver are requiring some major action to replace melted snow. Should work out okay but we have had the mildest January on record here, apparently.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 3 February, 2010
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Just a note on the situation in general, the weather models have been having more trouble than usual with the "mid-range" which is 3-8 days out, because of a large area of disorganized generally southwesterly upper winds across the eastern Atlantic and western Europe. Some of the bitterly cold air that was over Ireland on the weekend past has stalled over Scotland and northeast England, and although it is now detached from the very cold air in Russia, it still wants to hang around in that general area for several more days.

Meanwhile, a very strong storm is developing out of almost nothing in the vicinity of the east coast of the U.S. (no wonder the tabloids are full of stories about devilish U.S. weather machines etc etc). This will become like a hurricane in strength by Friday or so, but out in the central portions of the Atlantic. It is likely to be more or less in control of the circulation for several days but some weak and rather low-energy systems out ahead of it are meandering around in the general direction of the south coast of Ireland. Hence the forecasts are rather uncertain on details and keep changing more than one would like.

TODAY, the counties north of Dublin and as far west as central Ireland including almost all of Ulster except parts of Donegal, will remain in somewhat colder air for most of the day and it seems possible that light rain will be mixed with sleet or snow on higher ground there. Highs in that part of Ireland will be held down to 4 or 5 C later this afternoon. It will probably be rather foggy on higher ground.

Elsewhere, the milder air either stayed in place, or is just about to return, so that it should stay near or warm up to 7-8 C with intervals of light rain, and one or two heavier showers. Winds will be generally rather light but will be east to southeast in the northern areas that stay cool, and southwest to west in the milder areas. Dublin is rather close to this boundary now but I think the city should see a rise in temperature around 10-11 a.m. and then stay fairly mild near 7 C.

TONIGHT will be foggy and mild in most areas as the colder air continues to retreat slowly northeast, so any light sleet or snow should retreat to eastern Ulster while other areas see light rain. Lows will be 4-5 C for most, and 2 C in eastern Ulster.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY will stay fairly mild with each day bringing intervals of light rain, highs near 8 C and an overnight low Friday morning of 3-5 C.

At present, SATURDAY may see an interval of rain and fog with light winds, and some risk of sleet or snow redeveloping in Ulster although only on higher ground. Highs will be around 7-9 C in most of Ireland, but 3-5 C in the northeast.

By SUNDAY the milder southwest winds should reach the south coast and a milder southeast flow will push into other counties, raising temperatures to about 10 C with periods of rain becoming heavy at times.

Next week, the outlook is for a gradual fall in temperatures as a more easterly flow develops, the main question being how much the temperature falls and whether this could involve any snow in the mix.

Once again, today (Tues 2nd) was mild and showery here with a high near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 4 February, 2010
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TODAY will be mild and eventually wet, although the heavier rain will arrive in the afternoon (west) and evening (east). Some breaks in the overcast may occur around mid-day before that arrives, and after some light morning rain or drizzle ends. Winds will increase gradually to peak at SSE 25-45 mph by early evening. Highs will reach 10 C in many parts of Ireland, and 8 C in Ulster.

TONIGHT will continue windy and wet, with eventual clearing spreading into some parts of the southwest, but not most other regions, as temperatures stay up around 6-7 C and winds veer slowly from SSE to SW at 20-35 mph.

FRIDAY will see winds backing again to southeast and then east, as low pressure swirls around and heads to the south of Cork; the results will be steady light rain becoming heavier over southern hills, fog and mist developing, but a few breaks or brighter spells in the north. Highs for the day will be near 7 or 8 C.

SATURDAY morning could be frosty as skies clear late Friday night to produce some freezing fog or ice, with lows near -3 C possible. The day will remain largely dry with variable amounts of cloud and some sunshine, light winds, picking up to south 15 mph by evening, and highs of about 4-7 C.

SUNDAY is likely to be a bit milder with rain at least in southern coastal regions, strong SE winds developing, and quite possibly the rain will spread further north although perhaps tending to die out as it does so. Highs will vary from near 11 C in Kerry to 7 C central, 4 C in Ulster (colder air over Scotland and northern England will mix in there).

MONDAY will be cloudy and a bit colder again with the mild air pushed back to the south and west, possibly hanging on in Kerry and nearby counties. Occasional light rain or even sleet may develop in a colder east wind elsewhere as temperatures stabilize near 4 C (except near 8 C in the southwest).

TUESDAY may be a bit colder again with mixed precipitation possible, then a very cold spell is indicated for mid-week lasting several days. We'll get into the details for that closer to the time; plenty of speculation would be available on some of the other threads in the forum.

Meanwhile, Wednesday 3rd was a cloudy, fairly mild day here, high near 8 C, spots of rain at times but not very much.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 5 February, 2010
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TODAY, the last of the rain from last night will gradually move away from the northern coast of Ulster while another surge of moisture will move inland from the south coast. In between, covering a large part of Ireland this morning, skies are partly to mostly clear and there could be some good sunny spells especially in counties from Galway east to Dublin. Eventually the southern cloud will spread further north although the rain may not make it that far. Winds will be east 10-20 mph and may become stronger in some coastal areas by afternoon. Highs will be about 7-8 C.

TONIGHT the light rain should gradually end across the southeast, and clear skies may spread back to the south after midnight, but a sharp frost will probably be confined to central counties and possibly towards Cork, so watch out for icy roads after midnight. Lows will fall off to -3 C in those areas, and at least +1 C in cloudier parts that escape a frost. Some freezing fog may develop towards morning.

SATURDAY will be a generally dry day with the sharp morning frost gradually dispersing, fog lifting to partly cloudy skies, and some longer sunny intervals quite possible especially in the west. Highs will eventually struggle up to around 6 or 7 C.

SUNDAY may remain dry in some or even most parts of Ireland, as indications of rain are mainly confined to the south coast and just offshore. Winds will pick up everywhere though, to ESE 20-35 mph and it will probably feel chilly in the central and northern parts of the country, but milder in the southwest where winds may veer more southerly. Highs for the day will likely be in the range of 5 C northeast to 10 C southwest.

MONDAY will continue about the same with the rain making some gradual progress north; some sleet is possible over higher inland areas. Winds will continue ESE 20-35 mph for most, and temperatures will be in a similar range to Sunday.

From TUESDAY to FRIDAY, the indications are that colder weather will spread in from the east, although it may be a rather modified cold in Ireland as compared to southeast England where -3 C temperatures could develop with some snow. This air mass is trying to push further west but may be held up for several days by a transitional cool high with dry conditions, sharp overnight frosts for Ireland, but days with temperatures reaching 3-5 C.

Eventually the colder air may spill through this final barrier and affect Ireland around the weekend following, but by then it may have modified somewhat; however, this is when the risk of snow would be highest.

Thursday's weather here was very mild; we tied the daily record of 13 C and there was some sunshine too. As bad as this sounds for trying to hold Winter Olympic events, the general situation is improved; the higher ski areas were never that much affected, the lower ones have had extensive reconstruction and snow trucked in, but we're seeing indications of dry weather as it stays mild, then perhaps cooler temperatures just in time for the Games, so that some natural snow may be added to the piles they have created. As I say, the higher ski areas (which are located well to the north of the city) had tons of natural snow earlier and are reporting excellent conditions for the Games.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 6 February, 2010
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TODAY will be dry in most regions but there could be some occasional drizzle or hill sleet in eastern Ulster. Sunshine is more likely in the west and south, but some central locations could see persistent fog this morning. It will start out rather icy in a few central valleys, and the day itself will be rather cool with highs in the 4-7 C range.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear with local frost and icy patches, some of these clearing after midnight as winds pick up. Lows will range from near 3 C in the south to -3 C in the north.

SUNDAY will be a bit milder in the south, and rain could threaten at times near the south coast; however, most other parts will remain dry except for some light drizzle at times, with skies mostly cloudy with a few breaks. Winds will pick up to ESE 20-35 mph, and highs will vary from 8 C in the south to about 3-4 C in Ulster.

MONDAY will become colder in the south especially as the north retains similar temperatures to Sunday; the skies will be variably cloudy and there could be some light drizzle or sleet but nothing too heavy; the temperature range will be about -2 to +5 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY, Ireland will remain in this "transitional" cold air mass near a ridge of high pressure, and this will result in cold but not exceptional temperatures near -3 C overnight and near +4 C in the daytimes, with variable skies, some sunshine and some cloudy periods. There could be local snow flurries in parts of Ulster and the Dublin and Wicklow coastal areas, as winds will generally be NE 10-25 mph.

FRIDAY and next weekend, the colder air from further east will finally be released and flow out over Ireland to bring even colder weather and some risk of accumulating snows.

Over this way, it was yet another very mild and hazy day with highs near 13 C again. On the east coast, there's another heavy snowstorm developing that could bring Washington DC two feet of snow by Saturday afternoon, and similar amounts in Baltimore and Philadelphia. This storm will graze NYC and largely miss New England to the south.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 7 February, 2010
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TODAY will continue a bit milder than next week is going to be, but otherwise not all that mild since there will be a chilly east wind setting in, and temperatures will probably stay almost where they start in the morning, perhaps rising a bit to reach 9 C in the southwest and 5 C in Ulster, with 7 C fairly common in between. Some rain is trying to edge into Kerry and Cork and will probably make some progress but other counties will be either dry, or just see some spotty drizzle. Winds will be ESE 20-40 mph by afternoon, and skies mainly overcast.

TONIGHT will continue about the same with the light rain probably backing off to the west and leaving most places in either drizzle or a dry cloudy and windy flow from the east with lows near 3 C.

MONDAY will turn a bit colder with the east wind continuing, some light drizzle or possibly a few snow grains in parts of Ulster, also some chance of seeing a bit of sunshine but cold in the wind (E 20-35 mph) with highs of about 4-5 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY looks to be a cold, dry period, but not as cold as early January, partly because there won't be much snow cover. There could be a few flurries each day near the east coast, but large amounts seem unlikely. Nights will feature sharp frosts, lows near -4 or -5 C away from urban and exposed coastal districts, and patchy freezing fog as well as widespread icy roads. The days will see some recovery to above freezing but highs will only be 2-4 C for most. The skies will be partly cloudy on average and there should be some sunshine each day. Winds will be ENE 15-30 mph in the daytime and rather light at night away from the coasts.

THURSDAY, FRIDAY and SATURDAY could see even colder conditions with measurable snow quite possible, especially in the southeast and later into the southwest, but other regions are in with a chance too. Temperatures in this period may stay below freezing most of the time including mid-day and could fall as low as -7 C. I could foresee some locally heavy snowfalls but we'll discuss that a bit closer to the events.

From that point on, the weather should moderate somewhat but there are no large warming trends on the immediate horizon, yet. I imagine that it will warm up before the month ends and get back at least to normal values at some point.

We enjoyed another mild, hazy day here with highs near 12 C. In Washington, Philadelphia and Atlantic City they enjoyed (possibly) two feet of snow or even more in some outlying parts of Maryland and Pennsylvania. It was reported to be the second heaviest snowfall ever recorded at several major airports. But New York City only had a couple of inches and Boston missed the storm entirely, or should I say, the storm missed Boston (that's probably what happened, MTC).

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 8 February, 2010
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TODAY will be cloudy and rather cold with a brisk east to southeast wind at 15-30 mph, spots of drizzle and perhaps brief glimpses of the sun in western counties. Highs will be around 5 or 6 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with some clear breaks, and frosty after midnight with some icy sections developing on roads (except possibly in central Dublin) with lows falling to -2 C, a few places staying near zero. The winds will drop off in most places but will remain significant over coastal and more exposed areas.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a chilly east wind and highs near 4 C. There is a slight risk of sleet or snow showers near the east coast.

WEDNESDAY will also be partly cloudy and cold with lows near -4 C and highs near +4 C, still some risk of light snow showers.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY will continue cold with a greater risk of snow, especially on Friday when the coldest air of this spell should be over Ireland. Highs towards the end of the week will only be around 1-3 C and lows could fall to about -5 C with severe frosts and icy sections developing, as well as the risk of 3-5 cms of snow in some southeast and later southwest counties.

NEXT WEEKEND is looking about like the next two days, not as cold as the previous two days (see above) but still on the cold side of normal, but with less risk of snow.

The indications for the following week reveal a gradual warming trend back towards normal mid to late February temperatures (highs 8-10 C, eventually).

Sunday here was cloudy with a brief interval of light rain, and slightly less mild at 9 C. The heavy snow on the east coast was replaced by dry, cold conditions but another snowstorm is developing and moving towards the Great Lakes, and eventually New England and New York City by Wednesday.

More info on the later-this-week snow threat for Ireland can be found in the ongoing thread in this forum.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 9 February, 2010
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TODAY will continue cloudy with a few sunny intervals in western counties, and rather chilly although not as cold as we're expecting later in the week. A few light, mixed wintry showers will move inland from the Irish Sea towards the Midlands. Accumulations will be slight but higher hills may get a brief coating of snow. Highs today will be near 4 C for most, 6-7 C in some coastal locations, 2-3 C in higher elevations. Winds will continue ENE 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT will perhaps see a bit more clearing than last night and therefore more widespread frost, with the risk of icy roads and local freezing fog. Lows will vary from -4 C to near zero C, and a bit higher in the more temperate coastal spots.

WEDNESDAY will be a bit colder again with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, brisk ENE winds 15-30 mph, and some localized snow showers most likely on higher slopes near Dublin. Highs will be 2-4 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will also be quite cold and partly cloudy with more sun in the west and northwest, more risk of snow in Ulster, the southeast, and at times further west towards Cork. These snowfalls may not be very heavy but could amount to 2-4 cms locally. Highs each day will be near 3 C and overnight lows near -4 C.

THE WEEKEND is looking slightly milder and more cloudy although with little real change in air mass or wind flow. Highs should struggle up to about 5-6 C.

NEXT WEEK is being advertised as cold with some very cold intervals and more snowfall opportunities. This forecast pattern has totally busted in some past instances so I don't want to place full confidence in it, as any given storm coming out of eastern U.S. waters could decide to take a wider swing towards Iceland and hold all this back. So it's something at present just to contemplate rather than expect for certain.

Speaking of storms in eastern U.S. waters, there will be yet another "doozy" (sp?) exploding on Tuesday night (Wed in GMT) ... and bringing yet another 10 to 20 inch blizzard-like storm to cities from DC to NYC and this time possibly including Boston. This storm is supposed to plod on towards Newfoundland and circle around there for 2-3 weeks holding hemispheric weather patterns in place.

Where I live, and it's now three days to the start of the Winter Olympics, it was hot and humid with scattered thunderstorms and a high of 28 C. Well not really, but you believed me there for a second, because it was actually sunny and mild with a high of 14 C. Luckily the ski slopes are well up above this subtropical paradise.

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M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Where I live, and it's now three days to the start of the Winter Olympics, it was hot and humid with scattered thunderstorms and a high of 28 C. Well not really, but you believed me there for a second, because it was actually sunny and mild with a high of 14 C. Luckily the ski slopes are well up above this subtropical paradise.

Did believe you and was shocked, for a minute! I believe (according to media) it's not cold enough on the slopes for snow machines and they are having to import snow?

Keep your fingers crossed for our ladies bobsleigh team - I also hear this morning the Austrailians are in court in Vancouver trying to get the Irish Team out and the Austrailians in! MT, if you wouldn't mind popping down to the court with a dozen eggs!

M.T. Cranium

Well I'll see if I can ride with them, I know a thing or two about sliding on my ass.

Damned Aussies, the place is lousy with them. Every other barista in town speaks the infernal down under version of Canadian.

I am still looking for the mire's off-ass. :eek:

Now, things are not quite as bad as they may sound in the British papers (assuming you have any use for them, I can sort of guess what it would be).

About 90% of the outdoor events are up in the higher mountains near Whistler and they have fantastic snow. The other 10% closer to the city, that's where they are trucking in the snow. We have just run into the bad luck of having our mildest winter in ages after last winter was the coldest in ages.

Oh well, check it out on TV, you'll see either a lot of imported snow, or a lot of very bruised and bleeding snowboarders and ski jumpers.

Gotta add some roo to my do. :cool:

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 10 February, 2010
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TODAY will be partly sunny and cold, with some patches of freezing fog lasting to mid-morning in a few inland valleys. There may be a few weak wintry showers near the east coast later on. Highs will be 2-4 C and winds generally NE 10-25 mph.

TONIGHT will be clear and quite cold in many areas, with lows of about -5 C, and some dense patches of freezing fog. Roads may become quite icy. Winds will fall off to near calm.

THURSDAY will have lighter winds and so any freezing fog could last quite a while; otherwise, it should be dry and cold with sunny intervals. Highs will be in the range of zero to 4 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with stronger winds again, ENE 15-30 mph, and this could produce some snow in coastal southeast counties and inland on some hills. Otherwise skies should be partly cloudy to overcast. Highs will be about 3-4 C after morning lows near -3 C.

THE WEEKEND will be a bit milder but only marginally, with further mixed wintry showers possible mainly in the east. Highs will be 5-6 C, lows around
-2 C.

NEXT WEEK is still looking colder again, by Tuesday or so; and there may be some significant snowfalls.

Tuesday in the Vancouver area was sunny and mild with highs near 9 C.

Another snowstorm is developing for later today on the east coast. Philadelphia and New York City could see 20 inches or so, and this storm has much stronger winds than the last two, so blizzard-like conditions could develop.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 11 February, 2010
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TODAY will be partly to mostly sunny, except where some localized freezing fog takes most of the morning to dissipate. It will remain very cold and highs will only struggle up to about 2-4 C at best, and locally below 0 C. However, winds will be light or even calm, so the warmer February sun will help to ease the chill by mid-day.

TONIGHT will be clear to partly cloudy and very cold with more localized freezing fog developing. Lows will fall to about -5 C.

FRIDAY will probably have a bit more cloud around than today, and some risk of localized snow showers in the southeast, as winds pick up a bit to NE 10-15 mph. However, most places will remain dry. Highs will be in the 3-5 C range for most.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks, continuing cold and dry, lows near -4 C and highs near 4 C. There could be some light patchy drizzle or sleet showers in the southeast and east coastal regions.

SUNDAY will be a bit milder with patchy drizzle developing beneath generally cloudy skies. The temperature range will be about -3 to +6 C.

By MONDAY it should be considerably milder with showers, gusty west to northwest winds, and highs near 7 C. After this frontal system comes and goes, it will probably turn quite a bit colder again with renewed chances for snow in a northerly flow (at least at the higher levels this will be the source) with disturbances developing near Ireland, so mixed wintry showers would be the more likely outcome.

In Vancouver on Wednesday, it was cloudy with periods of light rain by afternoon, and highs near 7 C. As you've no doubt heard on the news, they had another 15-20 inch snowstorm in the eastern US and this time it included New York City; Boston got somewhat less. This storm is predicted to move towards Newfoundland and then stall around there for several days.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 12 February, 2010
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TODAY will be rather cloudy to start, with sleety showers possible in the east and southeast, spreading at times towards the southwest counties, but none of this activity seems likely to be very intense; a few melting snowflakes may be seen in some lower elevations and some snow could accumulate to 1-2 cms on higher hills. There may also be some sunny intervals especially in the west, and after mid-morning cloudiness dissipates. Highs today will range from about 4 to 7 C. It may not feel as cold as previous days because there has been a little mixing of maritime air into the cold-sourced dry air. On the other hand, perhaps it will seem like a "damp cold" now. Winds won't be much of a factor but could reach 10-20 mph from the NE in southeast counties.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and rather cold still, although less frosty than previous nights at about -2 C on average.

SATURDAY looks about the same as today, mostly cloudy with some sunny intervals mainly in the west and northwest, and isolated mixed wintry showers mainly over higher terrain in the south, as well as in Ulster. Highs will be in the same range, 4-7 C.

SUNDAY should be a touch milder with variable amounts of cloud, some showers of rain or sleet developing in the north and northwest as winds slowly turn more to the west at 10-20 mph. The temperature range will be typically about -1 C to +7 C.

MONDAY will be windier and somewhat milder with periods of light rain or showers moving across the north and east but more likely to be moderately heavy in Ulster than other parts of Ireland. The average temperatures will be in the range of lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C. Winds from the WNW veering NNW could reach 20-40 mph and by late in the day the showers could be mixing back to sleet or snow over higher ground in the north.

TUESDAY looks rather chilly again with mixed wintry showers, and from that point on the rest of the week looks very unsettled and cool, although perhaps not "cold" as the northerly-sourced air will have to swirl around several slow-moving disturbances and so temperatures may remain in the general range of 3-6 C much of the time. Precipitation will therefore be somewhat elevation-dependent during this cool spell as is typical of early spring cool weather patterns. Normally spells like this tend to break down into milder, even stormy weather patterns in another few days.

Our Thursday weather here was cloudy with light rain and a high of about
8 C, while the east coast spent the day digging out of the heavy snow under bright and windy conditions. We are unfortunately looking at several mild, wet days that might force some postponements of ski-ing events at the Winter Olympics but I can see some better weather looming beyond the weekend. The east coast may see their next snow around Monday, but in the meantime, a snowstorm has developed across inland parts of the deep south and this is moving towards northern Florida and Georgia for tomorrow and then the Carolinas on Friday night. That storm should go well out to sea before getting further north than Norfolk, VA and then it will be heading for Newfoundland.

I expect the Atlantic blocking pattern to break down slowly but eventually even if the Greenland blocking high stays in place, there should be a resumption of milder weather patterns for Ireland before February is over.

nacho libre

I expect the Atlantic blocking pattern to break down slowly but eventually even if the Greenland blocking high stays in place, there should be a resumption of milder weather patterns for Ireland before February is over.

well, that would more or less fit with the prediction sometime back of the block breaking down in early March. The block has to end sometime anyway. Though, interestingly over on netweather there were a couple of people saying we could be stuck with cold zonal-type weather well in to March.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sat 13 Feb 2010 _ 0700h GMT
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Not really seeing anything new to change the forecast issued on Friday morning (see two posts up) -- cloudy and a bit milder this weekend, showery and somewhat milder again on Monday, then a slow decline back to cool, mixed wintry showers middle to end of next week.

Weather here on Friday was very mild and rainy by afternoon with a high near 11 C.

I will revisit the forecast later on Saturday and if I feel like it needs new wording, I will amend it then, otherwise, see you on Sunday.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 14 February, 2010
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TODAY will become mostly cloudy and any morning frost should clear away quickly, but it will stay rather chilly as light rain moves into the northwest and eventually spreads as far south as about Galway to Meath. Highs will reach about 7 or 8 C and winds will increase to WNW 15-30 mph. Although the south should be drier in general, we can't rule out some local drizzle or light rain there.

TONIGHT will stay cloudy and there probably won't be much if any frost as lows fall only to 2-4 C. More light rain can be expected in at least the northern two thirds of Ireland.

MONDAY will become quite windy and rather blustery with showery rain, possible hail showers especially in the northwest, and winds increasing to WNW 20-40 mph. Highs will reach 8-9 C and could touch 10 C in the south.

MONDAY NIGHT will turn considerably colder and showers will start to mix with sleet and hail, or snow on hills. Winds will turn NW 20-35 mph, and lows will settle near 2 C.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with showers of hail, sleet or snow (mostly on hills), with N to NE winds and highs of only 5-7 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY should continue cool, unsettled and sometimes rather blustery, with the trend towards snow on hills, hail or rain lower down. Highs will remain in the 5-8 C range, and lows on either side of +1 C.

The colder weather will gradually fade out to near normal temperatures but it could become rather wet at times later in the month.

Saturday here was a cloudy, sometimes showery day with highs near 12 C. We have a few more of these mild wet days to come but the models are showing cooler high pressure over top of us later in the week, which should be good for both sunshine and for the Winter Olympics events (which have managed to go on despite the rather inclement weather at higher elevations).

The east coast of the USA is enjoying a dry, not overly cold weekend making for good conditions for the snow clearance, however another 3-6 inches is on tap for Monday night. A strong storm moved out of the coastal southeast this morning and is heading for Newfoundland later today.

Enjoy Valentines' Day. :cool:

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 15 February, 2010
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TODAY will be mostly cloudy with showers, turning more to longer spells of rain by late afternoon as winds pick up to WNW 20-40 mph. Highs will peak around 9 or 10 C, and this will likely be the warmest we'll see until about a week from now.

TONIGHT will remain windy (NW 20-40 mph) with the rain turning to sleet and perhaps snow over higher ground. Lows will be about 2 C.

TUESDAY will be cold with periods of sleet or melting snow, although the snow could stick at higher elevations on hills. Winds will tend to swirl around to NE then SE at 15-30 mph as low pressure drops down the west coast. This may make the precip heavier on western hills but it could come down rather heavily almost anywhere, briefly. Highs will be about 4 C.

WEDNESDAY to SATURDAY, expect mixed wintry showers in many areas, but the snow line will slowly come down in elevation from about 200 metres at first to near sea level by Thursday night and Friday. This is when there could be some significant accumulations. Temperatures throughout this period will be quite chilly and there won't be much variation from night to day, with readings in the range of -1 to +3 C much of the time. Winds will go back around to the northeast for most of this period.

by SUNDAY and MONDAY, it should be warming up rather steadily with winds more SE to S, increasing to 20-40 mph, and periods of rain may develop, as temperatures climb back to about 7-9 C.

The trend after this looks milder although there are some very cold air masses lurking not that far away from western Europe to the northeast, north and northwest. I have to think that the spring will continue somewhat backward or slow in warming, as it seems prone to raining whenever it tries to warm up a bit.

We had a very nice day here on Sunday, the sun came out around mid-morning and it was about 9 or 10 C but not mild enough to cause problems at the higher elevations for the Winter Olympic events. The east coast still bracing for another snow event by Monday night and Tuesday local times, but only 3-6 inches are predicted for most.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 16 February, 2010
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TODAY will start out showery in the west, dry with some morning sunshine in the east. Cloud will increase there by afternoon, while the showers turn more wintry further west, spreading gradually to all other regions by late afternoon. Highs will be held down to 4-6 C for most, possibly 7-8 in the southeast before it turns colder there too. Some of the showers may become thundery and hail, snow or sleet may fall especially on higher ground by afternoon. Winds will be SE backing to NE 15-25 mph.

TONIGHT will be cold with mixed wintry showers, winds NE 15-25 mph, and lows around -1 C, with icy sections developing on roads.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with a few sunny intervals, with mixed wintry showers, and some significant falls of hail or snow especially on hills. Highs will be around 2-4 C and winds NE 15-30 mph.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue cloudy, chilly and unsettled with more snow or sleet falling at even lower elevations at times. Temperatures will be in the range of -2 to +4 C, and there could be some accumulations of snow of about 3-5 cms in places.

SATURDAY will remain rather chilly with mixed wintry showers and highs near 4 or 5 C, with a stronger E to SE wind developing later in the day.

SUNDAY seems likely to be a bit milder with rain, possibly heavy at times. This may also begin to mix with sleet or snow over hills later on, as Monday turns a bit colder again.

Meanwhile, here we had a cloudy, dry day but it has just started to rain at about 10:30 p.m. Monday; the high for the day was about 7 C. This rain is not expected to be very heavy, then we get into a dry spell for a while. There is some light snow on the east coast of the U.S. tonight.