Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Elmo5

MT, you've been right about everything else on this thread, maybe I should start digging a bunker in the back garden

Graces7

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Hey, no one's complaining if that one busts, right?

Quite honestly, this VA situation could go anywhere from a three-day wonder to the biggest news story of 2010. But I suspect more like three-day wonder. We shall see ... people of earth, flee the scourge which is to come.

There is something vaguely medieval about this year, so far.

Yep; cathedral struck by lightning even....

Thankful I didn;t plant more peas and beans out yet as will have to bring them in yet again soon it seems....

Still a few spots of snow up here too.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 17 April, 2010
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TODAY will feature increasing cloud (mostly non-volcanic) from north to south, but it should stay rather warm and mostly dry until evening. Winds will slowly pick up a bit to SW 15-25 mph. Highs will reach 15-17 C.

TONIGHT will become chilly as winds switch to NW then all the way round to NNE by morning, at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts. A period of higher concentrations of volcanic ash or dust may develop with this, and otherwise expect some cloudy intervals and brief sleety showers with snow possible by morning on higher hills in the north. Lows will be about 1-3 C.

SUNDAY will be brighter after some murky cloud (some of it contaminated by volcanic ash) clears away, but some lingering drizzle or sleet could continue in parts of the east and north. Winds will be somewhat variable from NE to NW and some areas could have moderate ash problems if the Iceland volcano continues to erupt all weekend. Highs will only be 5-8 C in the north and about 9-10 C in the south.

MONDAY will have a frost in places to start, lows near -1 C, then variable cloud and some brief showers with a slight rise in temperature to about 12 C.

LATER in the week, I don't trust the models too much at present beyond 3-4 days because of this volcanic ash variable and also because they keep pulsing rather irregularly, so let's say the probabilities favour milder weather for a day or two then a second cold spell that could be even colder than Sunday-Monday, possibly giving a risk of snow. If the volcano situation remains steady-state there will be further periods of ash or dust affecting Ireland at times. Beyond about Friday, the models keep wanting to bring very cold air down past Iceland into the central Atlantic. This pattern looks somewhat suspect but also, with the feedback from cooling aloft, you might factor in that a more likely resting place for the very cold air is between Iceland and Ireland so that in fact, what looks like a very mild spell to follow could turn out to be a wet and chilly east-wind sort of event.

We had a lovely day here, on Friday 16th, with a high near 13 C.

Have a nice weekend and get those volcano goggles ready. :cool::cool:

owenc

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Saturday, 17 April, 2010
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TODAY will feature increasing cloud (mostly non-volcanic) from north to south, but it should stay rather warm and mostly dry until evening. Winds will slowly pick up a bit to SW 15-25 mph. Highs will reach 15-17 C.

TONIGHT will become chilly as winds switch to NW then all the way round to NNE by morning, at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts. A period of higher concentrations of volcanic ash or dust may develop with this, and otherwise expect some cloudy intervals and brief sleety showers with snow possible by morning on higher hills in the north. Lows will be about 1-3 C.

SUNDAY will be brighter after some murky cloud (some of it contaminated by volcanic ash) clears away, but some lingering drizzle or sleet could continue in parts of the east and north. Winds will be somewhat variable from NE to NW and some areas could have moderate ash problems if the Iceland volcano continues to erupt all weekend. Highs will only be 5-8 C in the north and about 9-10 C in the south.

MONDAY will have a frost in places to start, lows near -1 C, then variable cloud and some brief showers with a slight rise in temperature to about 12 C.

LATER in the week, I don't trust the models too much at present beyond 3-4 days because of this volcanic ash variable and also because they keep pulsing rather irregularly, so let's say the probabilities favour milder weather for a day or two then a second cold spell that could be even colder than Sunday-Monday, possibly giving a risk of snow. If the volcano situation remains steady-state there will be further periods of ash or dust affecting Ireland at times. Beyond about Friday, the models keep wanting to bring very cold air down past Iceland into the central Atlantic. This pattern looks somewhat suspect but also, with the feedback from cooling aloft, you might factor in that a more likely resting place for the very cold air is between Iceland and Ireland so that in fact, what looks like a very mild spell to follow could turn out to be a wet and chilly east-wind sort of event.

We had a lovely day here, on Friday 16th, with a high near 13 C.

Have a nice weekend and get those volcano goggles ready. :cool::cool:

oh yay snow again i see meto forecast snow and sleet for ni on wednesday night!

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 18 April, 2010
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TODAY will be colder in a light north to northeast airstream that sometimes backs to northwest near weak lines of showers. These showers could mix with hail or sleet over higher ground in the north. Highs will be 7-10 C north and 8-12 C south. Some sunshine may occur but there are pulses of rather opaque upper-level volcanic ash clouds likely by mid-day to evening too. Average rainfall amounts are not likely to exceed 2 mms. Winds will be generally rather light but could gust to 30 mph briefly near showers. Refer to other forum and external sources for guidance on the volcanic ash situation.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy to clear at times and a light frost may develop inland, with lows of -2 to +3 C across most of the country. Some light sleet or snow showers may continue for a while over Connacht.

MONDAY will see variable cloud and a few more showers, these mostly rain as it will be just a degree or two milder at 10-13 C. Winds will be NW 10-20 mph but variable.

TUESDAY will bring a secondary surge of colder air again, and possibly a new infusion of volcanic ash clouds too. The temperature range will be about 1 to 3 C for lows, to 9 or 10 C for highs, and skies will be cloudy with weak sunny intervals through dense high cloud layers. Some showers may develop and could become thundery with hail in Ulster and parts of other regions too.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY are likely to continue rather chilly with frequent cloudy intervals and occasional light showers that could still be wintry at times over high ground at least. The highest temperatures will be about 10 to 13 C. Light frosts may occur in some parts.

The longer range still looks very speculative or perhaps "dodgy" to me, when the 72-96h models can't really be trusted then the 120-168h panels are already "fantasy island" as they say (somewhere).

I spent all day indoors on Saturday and I think it rained most of that time but I haven't actually checked that out. It was about 13 C at lunch time. The very warm spell in eastern N America has now ended after about six or seven weeks and it looks considerably colder there now for several days.

Enjoy your Sunday and check out the volcanic thread for much more informed speculation about that aspect. (I hope)

Graces7

Thanks re the frost warnings.i

With tender young food crops out we need to know when to cover them.

ch750536

Was a hot day today, my location would have been about 16c I reckon, was in a valley though.

Nearest station reading 14c just now.

Northerly not kicked in at all, very light northerly, <5kmph in my unscientific opionion.

Not sure where the cold is going to come from, just have a feeling the warm is here to stay for a while. I came to this decision by looking at the sky & nothing more you understand. It just doesn't feel changeable.

owenc

ch750536 wrote: »

Was a hot day today, my location would have been about 16c I reckon, was in a valley though.

Nearest station reading 14c just now.

Northerly not kicked in at all, very light northerly, <5kmph in my unscientific opionion.

Not sure where the cold is going to come from, just have a feeling the warm is here to stay for a while. I came to this decision by looking at the sky & nothing more you understand. It just doesn't feel changeable.

well we only had a max of 7c here today and it is actually down to 5.7c here now and that is in clear skys with wall to wall sushine so i would assume there is cold air over me now anyway as if there wasnt i would be away up were you are.

ch750536

owenc wrote: »

well we only had a max of 7c here today and it is actually down to 5.7c here now and that is in clear skys with wall to wall sushine so i would assume there is cold air over me now anyway as if there wasnt i would be away up were you are.

Blimey. Thanks. We've all been in shorts & tee shirt all day.

http://www.irishwoodshop.com/weather/today.htm
High Temperature 18.3 °C at 15:57

Sorry for nose rubbing & all that.

M.T. Cranium

Will post an update shortly (or in shorts) but I think the colder air has pushed about halfway south now and is running out of energy to go further until it gets another push from behind. Perhaps the volcanic ash is getting into the atmospheric engines too.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday, 10:25 pm
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Looks as though the weak cold front has now stalled across the mid-south about Shannon to Wicklow, but air mass contrast is becoming rather slight now anyway, so it's more a question of where cloud breaks that will determine the potential for frost, and this seems higher in Ulster (inland) than elsewhere. Could see about -2 C by early morning in parts of Tyrone, Fermanagh and possibly Louth.

The volcanic ash and/or dust situation seems to be evolving in spurts, with one batch already delivered so to speak, and another one evident on satellite imagery for later tonight possibly. Looking at the charts and reading the volcano report bulletins, I am of the opinion that the worst dose of the ash will come Monday night into Tuesday. That's when a more direct NW flow develops from mid-levels to near the surface.

The weather itself should try to clear at times to mid-day Monday, then become showery again with another weak frontal trough heading for Ulster from the north. This one should push steadily south Monday evening and reach the south coast in the overnight hours. Tuesday should then become a little more windy (NW 15-30 mph) and perhaps a touch colder for most places. Showers could become somewhat wintry on higher slopes.

I would continue to suggest caution on any forecast model depictions beyond about four days until the energy balance adjusts to the new volcanic ash input factor.

Having a nice sunny day here so far, 12 C about the warmest temperature.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 19 April, 2010
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As I have been getting some information that the volcanic ash plume may be decreasing at source, I will leave out any further mention for today's weather forecast, refer to the volcano thread on this forum for more updated information as well as various other sources.

TODAY will continue rather cloudy with light showers or drizzle at times across the central and later southeast counties, with a slow clearing trend to follow from the already partly clear Ulster region (where there are scattered reports of frost, -4 C at one station in NI). So, expect more sunshine in the north than elsewhere but eventually everyone should see at least some sunshine, before another gradual increase in cloud later from the northwest. (VA plume may be dispersing but there could be another interval of dusty conditions to come with this next trough). Highs today will be 11-13 C except possibly 8-10 C over parts of Ulster.

TONIGHT will again bring scattered frost mainly in the north and central inland counties. Lows will fall to -3 to -1 C in some parts, but 2-4 C around the west, south and southeast coasts and in large towns and cities, as winds fall off to quite light or calm.

TUESDAY will see stronger NW winds in Ulster especially, but despite some isolated showers in the morning, the general trend should be towards sunny conditions (as long as severe ash or dust does not develop). Highs will reach about 12-13 C.

WEDNESDAY will also be partly cloudy with morning frost in some locations and highs near 13 C later.

THURSDAY could bring light rain if a weak front holds together in the constant northwest flow. This would be a time when dust deposition could again increase if the volcano is active Tuesday. Temperature range will be about 3 to 11 C.

FRIDAY will be a partly cloudy to overcast day with mainly dry conditions and somewhat higher temperatures by afternoon to about 15 C.

The further outlook is quite uncertain because the models are not responding very reliably at present to the challenges, so while there is somewhat increased confidence of a warmer turn in the weather, I wouldn't be totally confident on that yet.

Meanwhile, Sunday 18th here was a pleasant day with increasing high cloud and temperatures reaching 15 C.

owenc

ch750536 wrote: »

Blimey. Thanks. We've all been in shorts & tee shirt all day.

http://www.irishwoodshop.com/weather/today.htm
High Temperature 18.3 °C at 15:57

Sorry for nose rubbing & all that.

Oh no it's alright I wanted some cold air ... We got down to -2c last night and I see were down for 5-6c maxes tomorrow and showers maybe I'll see snow again!!

Graces7

Some frost here last night; the coverings on the vegetable patch were slightly icy.

Did not deter the cuckoo at first light at the window though..;)

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 20 April, 2010
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The general trend is a slow warming over the next seven days with only limited shower activity if any.

TODAY will be partly cloudy and rather chilly, with some chance of showers in Donegal and west Ulster, north Connacht. Winds will be moderate NW at times to about 20 mph, with longer sunny intervals in the south. Highs will reach about 12 or 13 C.

TONIGHT (and several following nights) will be partly cloudy with clear intervals, and lows of about 1-4 C in most places, but touches of frost in central counties (lows to -2 C possible).

From WEDNESDAY to SATURDAY expect a very gradual warming trend with partly cloudy skies each day, a slight chance of showers mainly in the northwest, and highs rising from near 13 C midweek to near 18 C on the weekend.

This warming trend could intensify into next week, although I'm waiting to see 2-3 days of similar forecast trends before feeling too confident about that.

Meanwhile, we enjoyed a fairly nice day here on Monday, mostly cloudy but rather warm at about 19 or 20 C. Looks like some rain developing but mostly virga so far.

Mc Love

Very clear morning this morning in Limerick - really blue skies

ch750536

Mc Love wrote: »

Very clear morning this morning in Limerick - really blue skies

Yep, Im in shorts & tee shirt already.

Graces7

ch750536 wrote: »

Yep, Im in shorts & tee shirt already.

Must be me; I am frozen!

CerebralCortex

Any chance of a south westerly to mitigate against the ash?

Mobhi1

Graces7 wrote: »

Must be me; I am frozen!

It is quite chilly, especially now the early morning sun has been mostly replaced by cloud!

Mobhi1

CerebralCortex wrote: »

Any chance of a south westerly to mitigate against the ash?

The southerly wind that's bringing the warmer weather towards the end of the week should push the ash away.

CerebralCortex

Mobhi1 wrote: »

The southerly wind that's bringing the warmer weather towards the end of the week should push the ash away.

My next question is will I be able to fly from Shannon to London on Friday midday?

Mobhi1

CerebralCortex wrote: »

My next question is will I be able to fly from Shannon to London on Friday midday?

There'll probably be flights by then but how they cope with the backlog I've no idea!

CerebralCortex

Mobhi1 wrote: »

There'll probably be flights by then but how they cope with the backlog I've no idea!

Deal with those who booked for that day first... ...I hope.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 21 April, 2010
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After the coldest night of the month so far (-4 C at Dublin Airport at 0600h) the cold spell should be ending soon, as southerly winds develop by the end of the week.

TODAY will be partly cloudy in the north, more sunny intervals in the south, with just a slight risk of showers developing later in the northwest. Winds will remain rather light and once the frost dissipates, it should warm up to about 12 or 13 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear and rather cold again, with lows to about -2 C in some rural areas, 1-4 C around the coasts.

THURSDAY will bring hazy sunshine and some residual volcanic ash could be making its last visit for a while (as long as the winds turn southerly) ... the afternoon will be pleasant with highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and milder with some rain moving past the northwest coast possibly some distance inland at times. Highs will reach 15-17 C after morning lows of 3-6 C.

THE WEEKEND is likely to bring hazy sunshine at times in the east and south, mostly cloudy skies in the west and north, and some rain or drizzle at times there, but it will turn warmer with highs of 18-20 C and mild nights near 8-10 C. This warm spell could intensify next week according to the latest (optimistic) guidance and highs could reach 23 C in some central counties, and since the wind will be more southeast than south, the warmth could spread to the west coast.

Meanwhile, we had quite a cool and drizzly day here with a moderate NW wind setting in. The high was only 12 C.

Graces7

Mobhi1 wrote: »

It is quite chilly, especially now the early morning sun has been mostly replaced by cloud!

Thank you! There was and is a sneaky wind up here.

The frost is on my peas, even through the covers. Please God they survive as we cannot afford to buy any more seed.:(

Sigh....

Mobhi1

Graces7 wrote: »

Thank you! There was and is a sneaky wind up here.

The frost is on my peas, even through the covers. Please God they survive as we cannot afford to buy any more seed.:(

Sigh....

It was quite cold last night - I recorded the lowest since early March with -1.6C and as MT says it was -4C at Dublin Airport, although by the time I looked out any frost was gone! Hopefully it's the last frost until next winter although I remember saying that a couple of weeks ago!

snow ghost

Mobhi1 wrote: »

It was quite cold last night - I recorded the lowest since early March with -1.6C and as MT says it was -4C at Dublin Airport, although by the time I looked out any frost was gone! Hopefully it's the last frost until next winter although I remember saying that a couple of weeks ago!

Yeah, there was visible white frost on the cars around here in the early hours of this morning.

Graces7

Mobhi1 wrote: »

It was quite cold last night - I recorded the lowest since early March with -1.6C and as MT says it was -4C at Dublin Airport, although by the time I looked out any frost was gone! Hopefully it's the last frost until next winter although I remember saying that a couple of weeks ago!

Warnings out for tonight and tomorrow night for frost.

Thankfully the seedlings look fine... I throw and old cotton sheet over them. And take all hardening off trays in;; not checked the few I left out by accident yet.

redalicat

Graces7 wrote: »

Warnings out for tonight and tomorrow night for frost.

Thankfully the seedlings look fine... I throw and old cotton sheet over them. And take all hardening off trays in;; not checked the few I left out by accident yet.

Is this more for Donegal? I'm in Kildare and my seeds haven't popped up yet...:eek: