Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 22-01-2023 08:55AM

Sunday, 22 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Rather cloudy and mild with small amounts of rain at times to mid-week, then somewhat colder with more sunny intervals later in the week, dry. Back to milder conditions near the end of the month.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and rather misty with outbreaks of drizzle or light rain, somewhat heavier near Atlantic coasts. Highs 10-13 C.

TONIGHT cloudy, misty with drizzle, lows 6-9 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and a few light showers. Highs 11-14 C.

TUESDAY will become partly cloudy with showers more isolated except for a weak cold front arriving in the north by evening. Lows 5-8 C and highs 11-14 C.

WEDNESDAY northerly breezes after the weak cold front passes during the morning, cooler. Lows 6-8 C, highs 8-10 C.

THURSDAY colder with brisk northeast breezes near east coast, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 5-8 C. It appears too dry for any wintry shower development over the Irish Sea but some "virga" formations (showers not reaching the ground) may be observed.

FRIDAY the northeast winds will weaken but it will remain rather cold, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 6-9 C.

SATURDAY another morning frost likely, then somewhat milder with partly cloudy skies. Lows -3 to +1 C, highs 7-10 C.

From SUNDAY to about WED 1st FEB, mild and dry, highs 11-14 C. After that, a more unsettled pattern seems likely.

There will be unusually cold weather spreading west across parts of southern Europe and even out to Madeira during the middle to late stages of the coming week. There may also be unusually cold weather in the Middle East.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with some foggy conditions by afternoon and light snow by evening. Highs around -4 C. The mild winter continues in eastern regions of North America but much colder air masses are indicated for the last few days of January and early February. It remains unclear whether that might lead to snowfalls in the large east coast cities, or perhaps more likely the inland northeastern states.

M.T. Cranium · 23-01-2023 08:08AM

Monday, 23 January, 2023 ____ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... no major changes from previous report, rather mild with small amounts of rain at first, colder and brighter for second half of week, milder again by weekend but with some risk of a return to cold temperatures towards end of month.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with patchy drizzle, some places remaining dry. Rather misty as low cloud layers could form hill fog in the southeast. Highs 8 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will continue rather cloudy and misty, isolated drizzle and some mist or fog, lows 6 to 8 C.

TUESDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals. Mild with southwest breezes developing, 30-50 km/hr. Rain by evening in north. Highs 11 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will gradually turn cooler and brighter as the rain fragments to showers while rapidly moving southeast in the morning. Lows 5 to 7 C and highs 6 to 9 C. Winds becoming northwest to north 30-50 km/hr.

THURSDAY will be cold, with sunny intervals and some cloudy spells more frequent near Irish Sea. Winds northeast 30-50 km/hr. Lows -1 to +2 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

FRIDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, after a sharp morning frost with lows -4 to -1 C, highs reaching 6 to 10 C.

SATURDAY rather cloudy with some brighter spells in south. Occasional drizzle in north where cloud more persistent. Lows -2 to +4 C (milder north) and highs 8 to 12 C.

SUNDAY will become quite breezy (westerly 50-70 km/hr) with outbreaks of light rain spreading south. Turning colder late in the day from north to south. Lows 3 to 6 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

A rather cold outbreak will spread south by Monday 30th, slowly moderating during the week although possibly a second surge of cold air will move south after the mid-week moderation. The longer term guidance currently looks both cold and unsettled with the flow generally northwest to north. No signs of anything like a "beast from the east" but possibly cold enough at times for snow in similar northwestern areas to previous outbreaks this winter. Confidence in this rather moderate, the outcome partly depends on developments in the stratosphere.

My local weather on Sunday, following an overnight light snowfall of 2-4 cm, was sunny and cold, highs around -5 C, with some moderate northwest wind gusts at times. It is now clear and -10 C approaching midnight. The mild trend continues in eastern North America but it will likely turn colder in stages there before January ends. This may prevent January from holding on to two potential records at New York City, mildest January (I think it may finish second to 1950 although it's slightly ahead now), and latest date for first measurable snow (Jan 30 would qualify and edge out winter 1972-73). Snow is quite likely just inland from the east coast cities at times this week but it looks like more rain and 5-10 C temperatures along the coast. Much colder after Friday though for them.

M.T. Cranium · 24-01-2023 08:42AM

Tuesday, 24 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Jan --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, mild today but often a little cooler than average, although only by a small enough difference to offset the mild start.

-- Rainfall only 10 to 20 per cent of normal, tonight and tomorrow morning will see most of that.

-- Sunshine eventually returning, overall close to normal amounts.

-- Winds rather light but sometimes moderate northwest by end of the weekly interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and mild, isolated outbreaks of drizzle but mainly dry. Highs 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT some intervals of light rain moving gradually south, to reach south-central counties by morning. Lows 5 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY the light rain will fragment to showers and move further south before ending entirely. Some sunny breaks and a bit cooler by afternoon. Highs 7 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and rather cold, with north to northeast breezes. Lows 1 to 4 C and highs 5 to 9 C.

FRIDAY partly cloudy to sunny, lows -2 to +2 C, highs 7 to 10 C. Some light rain in northwest by afternoon and evening.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, breezy, passing showers in some northern regions. Winds northwest 30-50 km/hr. Lows 3 to 6 C and highs 8 to 12 C.

SUNDAY also partly cloudy, a bit colder again, winds northwest 40-60 km/hr, isolated showers. Lows 2-5 C and highs 6-9 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows 1-4 C and highs 6-9 C.

Colder air will often be moving south across Britain and most of Europe during the following week but it appears likely to have less of an impact on Ireland as high pressure will not retreat too far west so that temperatures are likely to remain only moderately cold, perhaps staying closer to early February average values in western counties. Eventually the shielding influence of this high will reduce and the arctic flow may increase and begin to include Ireland more frequently towards the middle of February. It appears potentially cold enough for mixed wintry showers to develop at times by then, but this outlook has limited confidence values.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy and cold with highs near -5 C.

M.T. Cranium · 25-01-2023 07:25AM

Wednesday, 25 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain rather bland, with temperatures seldom very far from average values in the coming week, likely milder in the second week as a previous colder trend seems to have been overwhelmed by a milder signal for the time being. Largely dry to about 7th of February, other than small amounts of rain today and over the weekend in a few locations. Rather cloudy at times but probably at least the normal amount of late January to early February sunshine (now around 2.5 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY a few showers moving south more rapidly as the morning progresses, and breaking up so that some southern counties may remain dry. Variable amounts of cloud will tend to decrease allowing more afternoon sunshine. Light to moderate northwest to north winds 30-50 km/hr near coasts. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy, some clear intervals developing, lows near -1 C inland south and east, +2 C closer to west and north coasts.

THURSDAY partly cloudy to sunny, cool. Highs 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY partly cloudy to sunny, becoming cloudy with spotty drizzle in north late afternoon and evening. Lows -2 to +3 C, highs 8 to 12 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy to overcast, mild, any remnant drizzle in north should clear east. Lows 2 to 5 C, highs 8 to 12 C.

SUNDAY breezy and mild, some outbreaks of light rain in north, colder air could briefly spread into east Ulster but otherwise seems headed mostly for Britain and the North Sea, so Ireland should remain quite mild with lows 3-6 C and highs 9 to 13 C. West-southwest breezes at about 40-60 km/hr, possibly stronger at times in Atlantic coastal counties.

MONDAY partly cloudy, a few passing showers in north and east, northwest breezes 40-60 km/hr, a touch colder, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-10 C.

TUESDAY breezy and cool, winds northwest backing to west-southwest 40-60 km/hr, occasional light rain. Lows 4-7 C and highs 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY (1st Feb) overcast with occasional light rain, strong westerly breezes 50-70 km/hr, lows 4-7 C and highs 8-10 C.

THURSDAY (2nd Feb) likely to bring occasional light rain, strong southwest winds at times, lows 5-8 C and highs 9-11 C.

Mild or even very mild through Friday 3rd and weekend of 4th-5th, with rain spreading in around Monday 6th or Tuesday 7th, possibly the first heavy rainfall in quite some time. All of the light rainfalls before this event appear likely to add up to only about 3-5 mm but the heavier rain could be in the 20-40 mm range at least in western counties. Staying quite mild once this front moves through as the upper level flow remains west-southwest from the relatively warm central Atlantic.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with hill fog around us, suspect it was sunny at peak elevations as there was a bit of a bright glow near the cloud bases. Down in the Columbia valley most of the snow has gone and it was close to 2 C, at our elevation we still have at least 30 cm of snow on average and the high was -2 C. Some portions of the Ohio valley and inland northeast, southern Ontario will see 15-25 cm snowfalls today but it looks more like sleet to rain along the east coast. Another similar event arrives on Friday into Saturday there as the mild winter pattern is not breaking despite slow advance of very cold air masses south from the eastern and central arctic regions of northern Canada.

M.T. Cranium · 26-01-2023 07:28AM

Thursday, 26 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, quite dry in general, temperatures not far from seasonal averages, a bit milder on the weekend ... and not much change is foreseen for at least a week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy at first, some longer sunny intervals could develop later. Light north to northeast winds and highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to clear, cold, with local frosts inland. Lows -3 to +2 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, highs 8-10 C. Some light rain in north by late afternoon and evening, fragmenting to showers overnight and staying dry during the night in most other regions.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy and a little milder with morning lows 2-5 C and afternoon highs 10-12 C.

SUNDAY will be breezy and mild, lows 3-6 C and highs 11-14 C. Winds westerly 30-50 km/hr more noticeable in north and near west coast.

MONDAY some early morning showers, a bit cooler again, lows 3-6 C and highs 8-11 C.

TUESDAY although colder air will be moving south across Britain, it may only have a moderate impact on parts of east Ulster and possibly north Leinster where there could be wintry showers and lows 1-4 C, highs 5-8 C. Otherwise most other parts of Ireland will have only a slight drop in temperatures and any showers in the northwest winds of 40-70 km/hr will likely not be wintry, as lows near 4 C will be followed by highs 8-10 C. Feeling colder even so due to the wind mostly.

WEDNESDAY the cooler air mass will still be around for most of the day before milder air begins to work back from the west. A mostly dry day with cloudy intervals, lows -1 to +4 C and highs 7-11 C.

THURSDAY 2nd Feb to about Monday 6th should continue relatively dry with brief showery intervals in mostly mild southwesterly winds, highs each day 11 to 14 C, and nights generally well above freezing although could be slightly cooler inland south closer to high pressure centres.

By TUESDAY 7th Feb, a more unsettled pattern appears likely with the chance for a heavier rainfall from stronger fronts than we'll likely see over the coming ten days or more. Once that frontal system pushes through, higher pressure will return, and it will start to link up with slowly increasing arctic highs in northern Russia. It could be most of three weeks before any influence from that colder air is felt this far west, but it will be on the move west through central Europe by about the 10th of February. It's possible that it won't make it much further west and a mild, dry regime will continue in Ireland, but it's bound to become a topic of weather conversation if the signal for strong high pressure (near Finland) continues to show up on the weather charts.

My local weather was partly cloudy and a bit milder with a high close to +1 C. Snow moved through parts of the inland northeastern U.S. but there was mostly rain, heavy at times, along the coast.

M.T. Cranium · 27-01-2023 07:15AM

Friday, 27 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain near normal for temperatures, rather dry (particularly in the south), with winds rather light but sometimes moderate westerly.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with a few outbreaks of drizzle or light rain by late afternoon and evening in Connacht and west Ulster. Highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT rather cloudy with the exception of some clear intervals in the inland south which could therefore be somewhat colder, lows generally in the 3 to 6 C range. Some of the light rain may move a bit further south but amounts will be small (trace to 2 mm).

SATURDAY overcast at first, to partly cloudy at times later, mild. Highs 8 to 12 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy to overcast, mild, breezy. Occasional rain will reach northern counties by afternoon. Winds westerly 40-60 km/hr, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 10 to 14 C.

MONDAY breezy to windy at times, a few showers during the early morning but amounts slight, most places dry. Variable cloud during the day. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY breezy to windy, passing showers, turning a bit colder especially in northern counties. Lows 4 to 7 C, highs 7 to 10 C. Winds west-northwest 50-70 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY partly cloudy, somewhat milder again, lows 2-5 C and highs 8-11 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY (2nd to 5th Feb) will be quite mild and generally dry with lows 4-7 C and highs 11 to 14 C, rain possible by late Sunday 5th then turning to heavier rain by Monday 6th.

The pattern after this may remain rather unsettled with near normal temperatures for early to mid-February, but some recent guidance has been suggesting cold air could be moving west from Europe so the signals are apparently mixed at this point, not too clear which direction things will go although a skeptic would say back the milder solution just because February has a poor track record in recent decades. Hard to imagine nowadays but February has been the coldest month of some decades, and so has December, it isn't always January, but that seems to be the trend of the late 20th and early 21st centuries, in addition to the fact that winters in general have been milder. February was relatively colder in the mid-20th century and December in the mid to late 19th century in the existing records.

My local weather on Thursday was mostly cloudy and rather mild with a slight thaw underway, highs near 2 C, but we're expecting some snow and then much colder weather over the next few days. It could be close to -20 C here by Sunday night and Monday morning.

M.T. Cranium · 28-01-2023 07:43AM

Saturday, 28 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 28 Jan to 4 Feb 2023 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal with an increasing trend later in the interval.

-- Relatively dry with 10 to 20 per cent of normal rainfall amounts.

-- Rather cloudy with some sun possibly not keeping pace with normal values.

-- Light to moderate westerly winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals. Any isolated drizzle will be brief and amounts very slight. Highs 9 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, lows 3 to 6 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy to overcast, mild, breezy. Occasional rain will reach northern counties by afternoon. Winds westerly 40-60 km/hr, and highs 10 to 14 C. Rain fragmenting to showers by evening, mostly dry after midnight.

MONDAY breezy to windy at times, a few showers possible during the early morning but amounts slight, most places dry. Variable cloud during the day. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY breezy to windy, passing showers, turning a bit colder especially in northern counties where rain may be more persistent. Lows 4 to 7 C, highs 7 to 10 C, the colder values in Ulster. Winds west-northwest 50-70 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY partly cloudy, some rain at times, turning somewhat milder again by late in the day, lows 2-5 C and highs 8-11 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY (2nd to 5th Feb) will be quite mild and generally dry with lows 4-7 C and highs 11 to 14 C, small amounts of rain with weak frontal passages but more persistent rain possible by late Sunday 5th then turning to heavier rain by Monday 6th.

The latest guidance returns some influence of arctic high pressure over Russia but as the cold air from that works gradually west around Monday 6th to Wednesday 8th, the Atlantic, although weakened, remains more or less in control of the weather in Ireland, with Britain getting a weak push of colder air from the southeast for a day to two. Eventually a stronger Atlantic flow returns and windy, unsettled conditions return by mid-February.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy to sunny after some light snow in the early morning hours. Highs were near 2 C but the temperature dropped steadily after mid-afternoon as a series of cold fronts began to push south and west from Alberta where it has turned very cold. We will see further light snow then a clear, cold spell for Sunday-Monday but it may not last much longer than that.

M.T. Cranium · 29-01-2023 07:56AM

Sunday, 29 January, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead remain similar, somewhat milder than normal by 1-2 deg, rather dry (25 per cent of normal), and generally cloudy with some brief sunny breaks. Winds generally moderate westerly, later southwesterly.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with a few brief showers clearing southeast during the morning. Moderate westerly breezes, highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT rather windy with a few outbreaks of rain early on, mostly in northern counties, generally clearing after midnight. Lows 5-8 C. Winds westerly 40-70 km/hr.

MONDAY will bring a mix of cloud and sunshine, although rather cloudy most of the time in west and north where there could be small amounts of rain or drizzle by afternoon. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TUESDAY morning showers will clear in southern counties and become less frequent in central regions but may turn to a steady light rain in the north. All regions will be a little colder, lows 3-6 C and highs 7-10 C, quite chilly all day in Ulster.

WEDNESDAY slightly milder again with small outbreaks of rain or drizzle, lows 2-5 C and highs 8-12 C.

THURSDAY to MONDAY 6th Feb will be a mild interval with small amounts of rain likely, but dry intervals also fairly frequent, lows 3-6 C and highs each day around 11 to 14 C. It may become rather windy at times (southwest 40-70 km/hr) with a steady rain by late Monday although this now looks like it might fail to push very far inland from the west coast before weakening.

Around TUESDAY 7th, occasional rain, highs near 12 C.

Following that, more unsettled with occasional bouts of strong winds and heavy showers, temperatures not far from average (highs around 10 C).

My local weather started out with light snow, then cleared with very cold temperatures setting in, mid-day around -7 C and now -15 C under clear skies.

M.T. Cranium · 30-01-2023 07:55AM

Monday, 30 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue rather dry with temperatures not far from average for time of year, moderate westerly winds at times, and some brighter spells despite a lot of cloud.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy with a few light showers moving through north-central counties, clearing east later this morning with a mixture of cloud and sunshine to follow. Winds westerly 40-70 km/hr will become southwest at similar speeds later. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT rain marking a cold front will move gradually south, fragmenting to showers across the south after midnight. About 3-5 mm could be recorded in Ulster and parts of Connacht, north Leinster but the generally dry trend will continue further south with smaller amounts expected there. Winds veering back to west-northwest 50-70 km/hr after midnight. Lows 4-7 C.

TUESDAY will be a rather windy and somewhat colder day, with fairly persistent light rain (3-5 mm) in parts of the north, passing showers more the rule further south, some locations remaining dry. Winds west-northwest 50-80 km/hr may be quite strong at times near exposed coasts. Highs only 5-7 C north, 8-10 C south.

WEDNESDAY a little more rain is expected, more persistent in Ulster again, with weak warm fronts returning slightly milder air, lows 3-6 C, highs 9-11 C. Skies generally overcast with a few breaks.

THURSDAY a second warm front will pass early in the morning hours with a bit more rain, then a dry, partly cloudy and mild westerly flow will bring temperatures up gradually from morning lows 4-7 C to afternoon highs 10-13 C.

FRIDAY will also be rather mild with some mid-day sunny breaks followed by outbreaks of rain late in the day or overnight, lows 2-6 C and highs 11-14 C.

SATURDAY a weak front will slowly move southeast across the country, with scattered showers but only small amounts of rain for most, and temperatures will not change much as the south remains in the mild air flow for at least the first half of the day. On average, lows 4-7 C and highs 8-10 C (could be a bit colder in Ulster and a bit milder near south coast).

SUNDAY another push from southerly winds will return the milder air if in fact it is displaced, and highs will be back around 11-13 C.

MONDAY (6th Feb) outbreaks of light rain are likely with moderate south to southwest winds, highs 10-12 C.

The rain may persist into part of Tuesday (7th Feb) before gradual clearing. If it turns slightly cooler late Tuesday into Wednesday morning the next mild sector will be along fairly quickly into late Wed (8th Feb) and from then on it looks like a more variable and unsettled pattern with frequent frontal passages and some rather sudden changes in temperature although avoiding anything particularly cold.

My local weather on Sunday was mostly sunny and very cold, highs around -8 C, and it is frigid and clear outside tonight local time, near -18 C at 11 p.m. local time.

M.T. Cranium · 31-01-2023 07:07AM

Tuesday, 31 January, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 31 Jan to 6 Feb --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will amount to only 25 per cent of normal, possibly even less in the southeast.

-- Sunshine at times, may add up to a little more than normal.

-- Generally rather moderate westerly winds becoming more frequently south to southwest.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy with occasional rain in northern counties, only brief passing showers in central counties and generally dry with perhaps some sunny intervals in the south. Moderate westerly winds 50-80 km/hr in the north and exposed western coastal areas, 40-60 km/hr in east and south. Highs will range from 7 C in parts of Ulster to 10 C near the south coast.

TONIGHT will continue partly cloudy south and overcast north with further light rainfall there. Moderate westerly winds, lows 4-6 C.

WEDNESDAY will also be partly cloudy to overcast with further outbreaks of light rain mostly in the north, winds slowly backing to southwest at about 50-70 km/hr. Highs 9-11 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy to overcast, generally dry, lows 4-6 C and highs 10-12 C.

FRIDAY partly cloudy, some longer spells of hazy sunshine, mild, lows 3-5 C and highs 11-13 C.

SATURDAY occasional light rain in north, partly cloudy further south. A slight temperature drop may affect northern regions mainly, with highs near 8 C in Ulster, 10-12 C further south.

SUNDAY will be mainly cloudy and mild, moderate southwest winds, highs 11-14 C.

MONDAY increasing cloud with rain later in the day, highs 11-14 C.

The rest of next week should stay reasonably mild with some chance of a spell of cooler weather setting in near the end of the week as some guidance has returned to the previously abandoned idea of cold high pressure swelling up over eastern or central Europe. But as this has come and gone a couple of times recently, we cannot be very confident about that scenario as opposed to the more frequently offered milder and unsettled westerly theme. Also there is some chance that while high pressure could indeed play a role, it might only have a drying effect and not so much of a colder theme, if it remains at a distance.

My own local weather certainly did turn a lot colder but is now slowly starting to moderate after a sunny day with increasing cloud near sunset, and highs around -7 C. It is currently mostly cloudy and around -12 C, with a bit of light snow likely here at times over the next day or two. This cold air has spread into many parts of the central and eastern United States over the past two days and is bringing temperatures down from the recent near-record warmth on the east coast.

M.T. Cranium · 01-02-2023 06:25AM

Wednesday, 1 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead remain rather dry, temperatures turning milder for a few days but a gradual cooling trend to follow from about Sunday on, albeit more so inland and in parts of the southeast than south coast or western counties which could hold on to milder weather longer. Not much rain expected at all, and some places could remain dry. There could be somewhat more sunshine than normal for time of year.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, those more frequent near south coast. Some further outbreaks of rain in Ulster and occasionally further south towards east Connacht, north midlands and north Leinster. Dry further south. Moderate westerly winds 50-70 km/hr, sometimes a bit stronger near exposed coasts. Highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, still some brief showers mainly over northern regions, lows 4 to 7 C.

THURSDAY breezy and somewhat milder, any lingering rain moving away from Ulster and some hazy sunshine at times in most regions, moderate southwest winds. Highs 10-12 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY look fairly mild, with a weak front edging in towards the northwest on Friday night and overspreading Ulster by Saturday early morning, then moving south, but tending to fragment to showers. Highs on Friday near 13 C, Saturday 11 C but temperatures dropping steadily in at least the north and central regions late in the day. Winds turning more northwesterly with the front.

SUNDAY a strong high pressure cell will take up residence, it may stay fairly mild in western and south coast counties, but the morning chill may persist for a time in central counties, and it could be cold all day in Ulster and parts of Leinster. Lows -2 to +3 C, highs 5 to 8 C north and east, but as high as 8 to 12 C in south and west.

MONDAY a slight recovery in a southerly flow with light rain moving in later in the day, lows -1 to +4 C and highs 7 to 12 C.

TUESDAY the rain will end as another high drifts in from the Atlantic. Some brighter spells will follow, highs 7 to 10 C.

Meanwhile over parts of eastern and central Europe, colder arctic high pressure will be forming, and linking to the Atlantic high. The results may be mixed for Ireland, as colder air may not necessarily push far enough west, but the Atlantic high itself will be rather chilly, so while details remain rather vague, an interval of rather cold and settled weather seems likely around end of the week (leading up to the weekend of 10-11 Feb) but signals are mixed and there could be some milder and unsettled intervals mixed in with a few colder days through mid-February. Altogether, it looks like being a fairly normal February for temperatures, and rather dry with perhaps less windy conditions than in some past years.

My local weather on Tuesday became cloudy with very light snow at times, no real accumulation, and a high near -7 C. The cloud is keeping temperatures in a similar range to that overnight.

M.T. Cranium · 02-02-2023 07:52AM

Thursday, 2 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead ... Mild and generally dry with small amounts of rain mostly over northern counties, until about Monday. After that, different weather models have rather divergent solutions that include continued mild southwest winds at times, and at least some influence from colder high pressure building west from Scandinavia next week. There is no clear signal as to how cold or how long-lasting this spell might be, if it develops at all. Hoping to see some clearer guidance in the next day or two on that, but we can be reasonably confident about the shorter term outlook.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast at first, partly cloudy later in parts of the south, while some further light rain falls across parts of the north for part of the day. Moderate westerly winds, highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy, some mist or ground fog in places, lows 3 to 7 C.

FRIDAY partly cloudy, some pleasant spells of hazy sunshine at times, winds somewhat lighter for most regions. Highs 10 to 13 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy in the south, highs 10 to 13 C. Overcast with occasional rain or showers moving through northern counties, more showery by mid-day in central counties. Highs 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY clear and rather cold in the morning. lows -2 to +3 C. Sunshine will help boost temperatures in parts of the south and west back towards 10 or 11 C, but it could remain closer to 6-9 C in Leinster and Ulster.

MONDAY after some local morning frosts, increasing cloud, lows -3 to +2 C, highs 9 to 12 C. Some light rain near Atlantic coasts by afternoon and evening.

By TUESDAY the light rain should be ending as high pressure redevelops. This is where the weather models are having some problems assessing the relative strength and positioning of both the Atlantic portion of the sprawling high, and the continental portion. Some guidance wants to "sink" this complex of high pressure fairly quickly and that would re-establish a mild southwest wind flow. Other guidance says that colder air will start seeping west underneath the high pressure but as that lifts further north, the colder air could start to mix into more moderate air masses near Britain and Ireland. The net result could be somewhat colder than average temperatures at times next week. Then the further evolution is quite unclear and could involve several different regimes trying to establish dominance, so that the weather day to day could become rather variable on either side of average. It does tend to look relatively dry as the air masses would have rather weak boundaries and lows forming along them also rather weak. So the bottom line is we are really playing a waiting game as far as this potential cold spell is concerned. I would say the chances of a cool, dry interval are around 50% and anything particularly cold more like 25%.

My local weather is in a weak warming phase, and there hasn't been much upward movement of daytime temperatures, near -6 C on Wednesday with a bit of light snow, but the frequent cloud cover is keeping nights milder than on the weekend.

New York City meanwhile just ended its mildest January on record, and had its first measurable snowfall, a rather light 2 cm, that fell during the early morning of the 1st of February. That was their latest first measurable snow of any winter since records began there (in 1869).

M.T. Cranium · 03-02-2023 06:59AM

Friday, 3 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 Feb --

-- Temperatures will average near normal, milder for a few days but then a few degrees colder after Monday.

-- Rainfall will be slight and possibly close to zero in parts of the south and east.

-- Sunshine may be close to average for most, but could exceed normal in parts of the south.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy, but there will be some sunny intervals in the south, and these may spread further north. A few light showers will end during the late morning in the north. Highs 10-13 C.

TONIGHT will bring some clear intervals and rather cold in the inland south. More cloud further north will keep it milder there. Rain by morning in parts of the northwest and in west Kerry. Lows 2-6 C.

SATURDAY the rain in the north will spread further south and fragment to showers. It may remain dry near the south coast and in parts of the inland southeast. Highs 7-9 C north, 10-12 C south.

SUNDAY clearing overnight will lead to scattered frosts, lows -2 to +3 C. Some hazy sunshine and light winds during the day, staying quite cold in east and north, highs 6 to 8 C; slowly turning milder in south and west, highs 9 to 11 C.

MONDAY intervals of sunshine and high cloud, moderate southerly winds near Atlantic coasts, lows 2 to 5 C, highs 8 to 11 C. Rain by evening near Atlantic coasts, staying dry further east.

The uncertainty factor continues beyond this stage, although the most recent guidance only brings a brief colder interval near the end of the week after some dry and rather cool weather develops from the swelling of high pressure in the Atlantic. The colder Russian high is shown to be trying to spread cold air west, but only small packets of cold manage to make their way through the rather chaotic regime between the two highs. Daytime temperatures are likely to be in the 6 to 9 C range, and some frosts will occur, if this scenario is correct. Some wintry showers could briefly drift through some eastern regions at the time of any colder intrusions but by the following week it seems likely to turn mild enough for rain at times. Still this situation needs to be watched and different outcomes are possible.

My local weather on Thursday turned a little milder but stayed cloudy, with a high near -2 C.

M.T. Cranium · 04-02-2023 06:58AM

Saturday, 4 February, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for week of 4-10 Feb --

-- Temperatures will average near normal or slightly below.

-- Rainfall rather slight, 10 to 25 per cent of normal values.

-- Sunshine near average despite mostly high pressure, but sometimes cloud will be high-based and will allow some dim sunshine.

-- Winds generally rather light.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few outbreaks of drizzle or light rain, more persistent this morning in Ulster, Connacht and north Leinster. The weak front will fragment to showers by afternoon. Some clearing will follow. Highs 10-12 C south, 6-9 C north.

TONIGHT partial clearing, colder. Lows -3 to +2 C, frosts most likely inland north central counties.

SUNDAY sunny with increasing high cloud, cool north and east where highs only 5-8 C. Highs of 9-11 C near south and west coasts.

MONDAY partly cloudy to overcast, a few isolated light showers in west. Moderate south winds. Highs 10-12 C.

TUESDAY early morning rain in some western and northern counties, then clearing. Lows 4-6 C and highs 7-10 C.

WEDNESDAY increasing cloud, some light rain in west and north late in the day, lows -3 to +2 C, highs 7-10 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue dry and rather cool with some frosts inland and highs 7-10 C.

The latest guidance tends to confirm my doubts that the cold Russian high would ever push cold air far enough west. The Atlantic high holds the fort next week but then the Atlantic storms begin to re-activate to some extent and they push all of the high pressure towards southeastern Europe for mid-February, allowing a more variable and somewhat unsettled regime to develop in Ireland and most of Britain too. There could be brief and minor intrusions of colder air from the southeast into Britain next week but other than the night frosts, not much impact of this distant cold air mass for Ireland.

My local weather was overcast with a few brief brighter intervals, and mild with highs reaching 1 C up at our elevation and 4 C in the Columbia valley. A bit of light snow was thrown off by a coastal rain storm this evening. Meanwhile very cold air has rushed south into the Great Lakes and northeastern states, several date records were set even by midnight lows (e.g., Boston -22 C) and it was -43 C on the summit of Mount Washington with -75 C wind chills in 80-100 knot winds, basically the jet stream dipped down and blew across the 1800m summit (which I have climbed with friends in summer weather conditions). Hard to imagine such extreme conditions. This cold shot will be brief but the February outlook for the northeastern U.S. is closer to average than January with some chance of actual snowfalls which have been absent on the coast.

A strong frontal system approaching California can be watched in progress if you have access to the golf event at Pebble Beach. Heavy rain and strong winds may come and go during the next two days there.

M.T. Cranium · 05-02-2023 08:18AM

Sunday, 5 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue dry and near normal for temperatures, with perhaps a little more sunshine than is normally recorded in a week of mid-February weather.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out frosty except near south and west coasts. Some patchy fog should dissipate fairly quickly, frost may linger in shaded locations until nearly mid-day. Some low cloud and drizzle will lurk near Atlantic coasts and could move inland at times there. Highs generally 7 to 10 C with the cooler readings in Ulster, midlands and North Leinster.

TONIGHT some clear intervals despite advancing high cloud, lows -1 to +4 C.

MONDAY mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light rain near west coast moving slowly inland. Moderate southerly winds and highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY some early morning rain followed by gradual clearing. Lows 3 to 6 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY frosty to start, increasing cloud, rain by evening. Lows -4 to +2 C, highs 7 to 12 C. Mildest in southwest.

THURSDAY gradual clearing, some sunny intervals by afternoon. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY 12th mild and dry, some hazy sunshine despite rather widespread mid-level or high cloud. Lows 1 to 4 C with isolated frosts possible inland south, highs 8 to 13 C.

The cold Russian high continues to stay off at a distance on recent guidance, feeding cold air across the Balkans and eastern Mediterranean regions.

After the weekend of 11th-12th, a more active Atlantic driven regime appears most likely, unless that Russian high gets moving west after all. Even so, a few days in that time frame look mild and dry with potential for highs into the 13-15 C range around Valentines' Day.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast and mild with wet snow and drizzle at times, highs near 2 C. The wind proved too strong for the golf event at Pebble Beach and they had to delay play at about 1 p.m. local time, with no chance to resume during the rest of the daylight there. Today's play could also be impacted by occasional strong wind gusts and squally showers.

M.T. Cranium · 06-02-2023 08:30AM

Monday, 6 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar to past reports, dry for most, small amounts of rain in west, temperatures not far from average, and occasional sunshine despite rather cloudy conditions; the cloud bases will often be high enough to allow some dim sunshine so it will be relatively bright.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy, a few outbreaks of drizzle near the west coast moving very gradually inland. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT some light rain at times, becoming breezy near Atlantic coasts. Lows 3 to 6 C.

TUESDAY morning cloud and drizzle ending, some afternoon sunny breaks developing. Highs 7 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY increasing cloud, morning frosts, lows -2 to +2 C, afternoon highs 8 to 11 C. Some rain at times by evening into overnight.

THURSDAY clearing skies, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 7 to 10 C. Some rain could linger near north coast and cloud generally in parts of Ulster.

FRIDAY cloudy with a few breaks, milder, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

SATURDAY mild, lows 1 to 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

SUNDAY little change, but slightly cooler nights will begin to show up in the inland south, lows -1 to +3 C, highs 9 to 12 C.

The rest of next week looks quite mild with highs possibly edging into mid teens. It will remain settled but eventually the Atlantic will begin to pus some active fronts into the region and weaken the high pressure. The colder Russian high will remain near the Polish border region and the colder air masses will move steadily towards the Balkans and eastern Mediterranean this week and into mid-month.

My local weather was overcast with wet snow and drizzle at times, highs near 2 C.

M.T. Cranium · 07-02-2023 07:55AM

Tuesday, 7 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

The dry and rather mild trends continue ...

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring gradual clearing with some longer sunny breaks likely by afternoon. Highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT will be clear to partly cloudy, rather cold with frost in some parts of the inland south and east. Lows -2 to +4 C.

WEDNESDAY increasing cloud, rain by evening in western counties, highs 9-11 C. Rain spreading east overnight.

THURSDAY partly cloudy to overcast, breezy, some rain at times in Ulster. Lows 4-7 C and highs 7-10 C.

FRIDAY partly cloudy, milder. Isolated outbreaks of light rain in north. Lows 3-5 C and highs 9-13 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy to overcast, mild. Lows 1-4 C (frost possible inland southeast), highs 9-13 C.

SUNDAY overcast, mild, some brief showers mostly in western counties. Lows 3-7 C and highs 10-14 C.

MONDAY breezy to windy, southerly 50-80 km/hr, rain developing. Lows 4-8 C and highs 11-13 C.

From TUESDAY 14th on, more unsettled at times, strong winds and rain indicated around Wed 15th and Friday 17th, temperatures generally in the range of 10 to 14 C daytime, nights 5-8 C.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy and rather mild with highs close to 3 C. There is a very gradual thaw starting at our elevation and much of the snow we have has disappeared from lower elevations. Milder air has returned to eastern North America after their brief cold blast.

M.T. Cranium · 08-02-2023 07:17AM

Wednesday, 8 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain dry and seasonable to mild for temperatures. A more unsettled trend may begin around Monday 13th.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals in the south and east. Rain will arrive on the west coast by late afternoon. Highs 8 to 11 deg C. Moderate southerly winds most noticeable after mid-day in western counties.

TONIGHT some light rain will move rather quickly east, fragmenting to showers or drizzle, amounts generally 2-5 mm or less. Lows 4-7 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy to overcast, better chances for sunshine by afternoon, breezy (west to northwest 40-70 km/hr, more sustained in north), and some rain at times in Ulster, counties of Connacht and Leinster bordering on Ulster, while generally dry elsewhere. Lows 4-7 C and highs 7-10 C.

FRIDAY partly cloudy, milder. Still some isolated outbreaks of light rain in north. Lows 2-5 C and highs 9-13 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy to overcast, mild. Lows -2 to 4 C (frost is possible inland southeast), highs 9-13 C.

SUNDAY overcast, mild, some brief showers mostly in western counties. Lows 3-7 C and highs 10-14 C.

MONDAY breezy to windy, southerly 50-80 km/hr, rain developing. Lows 4-8 C and highs 11-13 C.

TUESDAY mostly cloudy, mild, a few outbreaks of light rain but dry spells south and east. Lows 5-9 C and highs 12-15 C.

WEDNESDAY (15th Feb) it seems likely that the rain approaching on Tuesday will spread in but like events this week, it may to some extent dry out crossing Ireland again, followed by partial clearing, lows 4-7 C and highs 8-12 C.

Rather bland and mild conditions appear set to continue to the following weekend (18th-19th) after which guidance wants to change to a more active regime, but at that time frame such developments often represent models just closing down at the end of a hard day's work and it could just as easily continue with the less active mild theme.

My local weather held a bit of a surprise, we were expecting some mixed wet snow and drizzle but at our elevation that turned into a heavy wet snowfall of 20-25 cm (temperatures near 0.5 C making it very slippery underfoot) which has just recently moved on towards Alberta. Expecting bright sunshine by mid-day Wednesday and probably quite a slushy outcome as the sun feels a bit stronger every day (we are barely north of 49 deg north here and at low elevations February starts to turn rather spring-like some years, although Feb 2019 was an extremely cold month around here which averaged five degrees below normal).

M.T. Cranium · 09-02-2023 06:51AM

Thursday, 9 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain mild and dry with a slight increase in rainfall starting around next Tuesday, but even then it will remain below average. Temperatures will average 2 or 3 deg above normal for the next several days.

FORECASTS

TODAY will turn milder for most regions, some lingering light rain in parts of Ulster but other regions dry. Highs 10 to 13 C under partly cloudy to overcast skies, best chance of sunshine near south coast.

TONIGHT some clear intervals inland south and east could bring a slight frost there with lows -2 to +3 C, more overcast further north and with some breeze at times lows will only fall to about 4-7 C there.

FRIDAY will bring hazy sunshine at times, with cloudy intervals, and quite mild, highs 11 to 14 C.

SATURDAY will continue dry and mild, sky conditions varying from hazy sun to cloudy intervals. Lows -1 to +3 C south, 3 to 6 C north. Highs generally 11 to 14 C.

SUNDAY mostly cloudy, mild, some outbreaks of light rain or drizzle could brush northwest coastal counties. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

MONDAY increasing cloud, mild, some moderate southerly winds at times, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

TUESDAY variable cloud, some outbreaks of light rain, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY overcast, light rain fragmenting to showers, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

The pattern only changes slightly longer term and that could be as much due to models returning to a default setting as any actual signals of a different regime, but overall it could become slightly more unsettled although still with similar mild temperatures, nights rather cold at times in the inland south whenever high pressure is close.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with highs near 1 C over the snow pack and 5 C over bare ground in the valleys not that far away, in fact we were there most of the day and it was feeling quite spring-like. Clear and cold tonight at least here over the snow, temperatures range from -4 in the valley to -10 C at our elevation.

M.T. Cranium · 10-02-2023 07:39AM

Friday, 10 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain mild and dry, temperatures 1 or 2 deg above normal, very little rain although some is expected around Wednesday in western counties (still only 10-25 per cent of normal values). There will be more cloud than sunshine but a near normal outcome for that.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with some afternoon hazy sunshine at times, and quite mild, highs 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, lows 3 to 6 C. A few clear spots in the inland south could drop to -1 C with frost forming.

SATURDAY will continue dry and mild, sky conditions varying from hazy sun to cloudy intervals. Lows -1 to +3 C south, 3 to 6 C north. Highs generally 11 to 13 C.

SUNDAY mostly cloudy, mild, some outbreaks of light rain or drizzle could brush northwest coastal counties. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

MONDAY increasing cloud, mild, some moderate southerly winds at times, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

TUESDAY variable cloud, some outbreaks of light rain more persistent near west coast, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 10 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY overcast, light rain fragmenting to showers, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

Another high builds up after this very weak frontal system and there could be several more days similar to the current spell following on.

My local weather on Thursday was mostly cloudy with highs near zero C, keeping the previous slight thaw frozen solid, which made for rather icy conditions. A snowstorm is moving through the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes but it has become very mild in the large cities of the northeastern U.S., into the 13-17 C range. There's still no sign of much winter weather for them through most of February, seasonably cold at times for central and western regions.

M.T. Cranium · 11-02-2023 07:40AM

Saturday, 11 February, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 Feb --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.

-- Rainfall will average 10 to 25 per cent of normal. Small amounts expected around mid-week.

-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal.

-- Winds generally light to moderate southerly, later variable.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and mild, with a few brighter intervals in the south and near some coasts. Highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with a few clear intervals, lows 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY will see somewhat brighter skies developing, although some patchy low cloud may continue. Highs 11-14 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy and mild, lows 4 to 7 and highs 11 to 14 C.

TUESDAY overcast, some outbreaks of light rain mostly in western counties, lows 5 to 8 C, highs 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY occasional rain, becoming showery with some brighter spells by afternoon, lows 5 to 8 C, highs 9 to 12 C.

THURSDAY mostly cloudy, occasional light rain, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY (18th) slightly milder again, highs 11 to 14 C. Some rain likely at times, then (with perhaps less than full confidence in this proposed solution of the guidance today) becoming windy and turning colder around SUNDAY 19th with temperatures falling to about 6-8 C. A more variable regime is likely to follow with some days mild and others quite cold, so a bit of a change from the present regime.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy and mild with highs near 2 C on the hill here and 5 C in the valleys nearby. Overcast this evening preventing any views of the comet near Mars, maybe better luck some other evening this weekend. (see my post in the astronomy forum for more details, but apparently it's fading fast unfortunately).

M.T. Cranium · 12-02-2023 07:40AM

Sunday, 12 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain mild and dry until some rain develops mid-week, with generally cloudy skies but some limited brighter intervals.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and mild, with highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with lows 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy and mild, lows 4 to 7 and highs 11 to 14 C.

TUESDAY overcast, some outbreaks of light rain mostly in western counties, lows 5 to 8 C, highs 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY occasional rain, becoming showery with some brighter spells by afternoon, lows 5 to 8 C, highs 9 to 12 C.

THURSDAY mostly cloudy, occasional rain (a slight change being that some potential now exists for 5-15 mm rainfalls partially breaking the dry spell in some eastern counties), lows 4 to 7 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will remain rather mild with generally dry conditions. Highs 11-14 C, nights generally above freezing except possibly in a few parts of the inland south where light frosts are possible if skies clear.

Somewhat colder at times during the following week but still expecting a rather variable pattern with some days quite cool and others seasonably mild, rainfall continuing somewhat below normal despite more frequent opportunities.

My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy and pleasantly mild, with a few intervals of bright sunshine. Highs were 3 to 6 C in the region. A coastal storm has developed over the southeastern states but the regime is not cold enough for this to produce snow except on higher summits of the southern Appalachians. This low will pull away from the coast before it can spread more than cloud into the northeastern coastal regions, and temperatures there will remain rather mild.

M.T. Cranium · 13-02-2023 08:27AM

Monday, 13 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead ... generally mild, some rain mid-week, perhaps heavy enough to provide a significant portion of a normal weekly amount, but dry again later.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with some brighter intervals. Light rain or drizzle may appear by late in the day near southwest coast. Highs 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT mostly cloudy, mild, rain at times in west. Lows 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, breezy to windy (southerly 50-70 km/hr), showers more persistent in west, highs 11 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY intervals of rain, some brighter spells by afternoon, lows 5 to 8 C, highs 10 to 12 C.

THURSDAY rain could become heavy at times across parts of the south, central and eastern counties. A rather cool and raw east wind possible over central and northern counties, mild south to southwest winds for southern and parts of southeastern counties. Clearing late in the day with blustery northwest winds. Lows 6 to 9 C and highs 11 to 14 C south, 3 to 5 C, 7 to 9 C north.

FRIDAY sunny spells, highs near 10 C.

This next high may begin to swell up just west of Ireland and some guidance suggests this could lead to a slow change in the regime from mild and dry to cold, still settled, but with localized wintry showers becoming more possible into the last week of the month.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with a period of light snow, and colder with highs only around -3 C. Icy conditions where slush had developed during the recent slight thaw.

The North Island of New Zealand is being rocked by a tropical cyclone (Gabrielle) tracking in from the northwest. The storm has already peaked and done considerable damage as well as exacerbating earlier flooding problems as it added 200-400 mm rainfalls to recent heavy amounts.

M.T. Cranium · 14-02-2023 07:18AM

Tuesday, 14 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain mild and rather dry despite the approach of about two days of slightly unsettled weather, some places may get one quarter to one half the normal weekly rainfall from that interval, but then it will become quite dry again.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and mild with a few passing showers moving from southwest to northeast. Amounts will be generally rather small from these, and highs will reach 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT a few showers leading to a more steady rainfall in some western counties, 5-10 mm potential there. Lows 6 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY morning rain will shift east to leave a few partly cloudy intervals. Somewhat cooler, highs 9 to 12 C.

THURSDAY another frontal wave in the morning hours could bring 10-15 mm rainfalls but then it will become partly cloudy to overcast, somewhat milder again, moderate southwest winds, highs 12 to 14 C.

FRIDAY will stay mild with intervals of rain confined to parts of Ulster and nearby counties of Connacht and Leinster. Variable cloud further south, lows 6 to 8 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

SATURDAY little change, mild with some further outbreaks of light rain in the north. Lows 4 to 6 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, mild, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY overcast with a few light showers, lows 4 to 7 C, highs 10 to 13 C.

Another weak front arrives TUESDAY 21st with occasional light rain, 12 C, and a somewhat colder high builds in for a few days, frosts could return at night and highs may be a bit lower too, 8 to 11 C. That cool, dry spell could last until at least the first few days of March.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy with a few brief snow pellet showers, highs near -1 C. Stormy across the plains states and very mild in the eastern U.S. for several days. Tropical cyclone Gabrielle is slowly moving away from North Island of NZ but a state of emergency has been declared, applying to the entire country although most of the severe impacts are in the north. In terms of wind it was fairly similar to Opelia at landfall in Ireland but in terms of rainfall more severe, and following on from previous flood-producing rainfalls. Australia's Norfolk Island also had a direct hit from Gabrielle a few days earlier.

M.T. Cranium · 15-02-2023 07:12AM

Wednesday, 15 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain mild, but significant amounts of rain will fall in some western and northern counties, approximately equal to normal amounts there. It will remain rather dry in the south and east with only 5-10 mm totals expected there. Some sunshine at times will also be in the normal range (now up to nearly 3 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY some morning rainfall will soon end, leaving partly cloudy skies and some sunshine at times. Another heavier rainfall event is timed for this evening and through the first half of the night. Highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT occasional rain, 10-15 mm possible in west and parts of the north, 5-8 mm south and east. Lows 6-9 C.

THURSDAY will bring partial clearing to the south and some central counties, moderate westerly breezes and highs around 11 C. Further north, rain will be intermittent with highs near 9 C.

FRIDAY most places will remain dry in partly cloudy and (at least in the north) rather breezy conditions, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 8 to 12 C.

SATURDAY another batch of rain will drop 5-10 mm across parts of the north, showers as far south as the midlands to Dublin region, other parts of the sout and west likely to remain dry and partly cloudy. Lows 4 to 7 C, highs 11 to 13 C south, 9 to 11 C north.

SUNDAY will be somewhat cooler, partly cloudy to overcast with isolated showers. Lows 2 to 5 C, highs 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY milder again, mostly dry if rather cloudy, lows 2 to 5 C, highs 11 to 13 C.

TUESDAY will bring another cold front, this one somewhat better defined, with intervals of rain and highs around 10 C.

The high that builds in behind that cold front will perhaps be a few degrees colder than most of this past month, with highs closer to 7-9 C and the chance of some frosts. The high looks like it will take up residence over Ireland for several days and perhaps a full week, slowly moderating back to the current temperature range while it does so. Although it will feed in some much colder air briefly around 24th to 26th for Britain and central Europe, at the present time this is not expected to include Ireland.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy to overcast with a brief snow shower, and clearing again for the evening. I was able to find the elusive comet as it slid past the bright star Aldebaran. By comparison with some fourth magnitude stars in the viewfinder, it looked to be quite faint, around sixth to seventh magnitude, but you could see a faint tail. The greenish glow would not be evident if you hadn't been expecting it.

M.T. Cranium · 16-02-2023 06:34AM

Thursday, 16 February, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain quite mild to about Tuesday after which it will turn a few degrees colder, so the average to next Wednesday will be around 2 deg above normal. Some rain at times, mostly in the north, but generally rather dry (now that 5-10 mm rain has come and gone overnight). Sunshine not all that frequent, likely to remain in the range of recent weeks (near 75% of normal).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy, breezy, mild with a few isolated showers, perhaps more frequent in the north. Highs 11-14 C.

TONIGHT cloudy and mild, lows 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY all similar days, partly cloudy to overcast, a few intervals of steady light rain in northern counties, generally dry apart from patchy drizzle further south, and mild, highs each day 12-14 C, lows 5-7 C.

MONDAY increasing cloud, rain by afternoon and evening, highs 11-13 C.

TUESDAY the rain should move through by mid-day and it will turn colder by several degrees, temperatures settling at around 7 C.

The next few days will be quite cool with frosts at night and daytime highs around 7-9 C. This pattern will continue several days and there is some chance of an even colder spell developing in early March although that may miss to the east and affect mostly Britain and central Europe.

My local weather on Wednesday was nice and sunny, rather cold in the shade as highs reached about +1 C. Very mild in eastern regions of North America, with some highs not far from record values (17-20 C).

M.T. Cranium · 17-02-2023 06:37AM

Friday, 17 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS unchanged, mild to about Tuesday morning then colder than average to the end of the month. Small to moderate amounts of rain likely. Windy at times in northern counties, then in all regions after Tuesday for several days.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mild with some strong wind gusts 60-90 km/hr at times this morning, easing back to moderate westerlies by mid-day. A few outbreaks of light rain in the north, heavier pulses of rain by evening there. Highs 11-14 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, some rain at times in north, moderate westerly breezes, lows 6 to 9 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy to overcast, a few further showers in north, moderate westerly breezes, highs 11 to 14 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy to overcast, showers more isolated, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY increasing cloud, mild, rain by afternoon or evening. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY early morning rain followed by colder air, occasional showers as winds veer to northwest 50-80 km/hr. Morning highs 8-10 C, afternoon temperatures near 5 C.

WEDNESDAY windy and colder, passing showers, which could become wintry on hills. Lows 1-3 C, highs 4-8 C. Winds northwest to north 50-80 km/hr.

THURSDAY still rather cold but not quite as windy, lows -2 to +2 C, highs 5 to 9 C. Isolated showers, winds northerly 40-60 km/hr.

Cold with lighter winds as the high builds up closer to Ireland late next week and into weekend of 25th-26th, frosty nights likely and highs 5-8 C. Winds may eventually turn more easterly, and it could be cold enough at times for wintry showers near the Irish Sea and south coast. Eventually this cold air mass will moderate gradually and temperatures will return to seasonal normals early in March.

My local weather on Thursday was mostly cloudy with highs around zero C. New York City had sunshine and 21 C, near a record set in 1954. Other eastern locations broke their daily records, but this mild spell will give way to more average readings in the 5-10 C range.

M.T. Cranium · 18-02-2023 06:32AM

Saturday, 18 February, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 18-24 Feb --

-- Temperatures will run 3-5 deg milder than average to late Monday, and will then change rather abruptly to 3-5 deg below normal. That will leave the weekly interval near normal on average. Rather dry with small to moderate amounts of rain to Tuesday, some small amounts from wintry showers later Tuesday into Wednesday. Sunshine totals 75 to 90 per cent of average. Moderate westerly winds through the mild spell then moderate to strong northerly winds from Tuesday to Thursday; calmer but still cold later.

FORECASTS

TODAY partly cloudy to overcast, a few further showers mostly in north, moderate westerly breezes 50 to 70 km/hr, highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT mostly cloudy, breezy to windy, westerly 50-70 km/hr, mild, lows 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy to overcast, breezy, showers more isolated, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY increasing cloud, mild, rain by evening. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY early morning rain followed by colder air arriving about sunrise in northwest to mid-day south-east, occasional showers as winds veer to northwest 50-80 km/hr. Morning highs 8-10 C, afternoon temperatures near 5 C. Much colder by evening.

WEDNESDAY windy and colder, passing showers, which could become wintry on hills. Lows 1-3 C, highs 4-8 C. Winds northwest to north 50-80 km/hr.

THURSDAY still rather cold but not quite as windy, lows -4 to +2 C, highs 5 to 9 C. Wintry sunshine at times, with a few isolated showers, winds northerly 40-60 km/hr falling off light and variable.

FRIDAY likely to be somewhat milder with largely dry conditions, some sun and cloud mixed. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

Following this slight recovery, guidance indicates potential for easterly winds to develop, through the weekend of 25th-26th, and it could turn quite cold with some potential for wintry mixtures especially near east and south coasts, but all of this is rather uncertain and speculative at this stage. Watching also with interest the possibility of a reinforcement of this cold from the northeast into early March.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with a few breaks and near average temperatures (for here) of about 2 C. A colder interval is developing with much colder temperatures due by Monday, after some light snowfalls.

M.T. Cranium · 19-02-2023 07:40AM

Sunday, 19 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, mild for two more days then much colder, only small amounts of rain likely, and becoming brighter in the cold spell.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, breezy, with isolated and brief showers in a few locations, highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT mostly cloudy, breezy to windy, westerly 50-70 km/hr, mild, lows 5 to 8 C.

MONDAY increasing cloud, mild, outbreaks of drizzle near Atlantic coasts all day but staying relatively dry elsewhere, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY morning to mid-day rain followed by colder air arriving before mid-day in northwest, to mid-day or afternoon/evening south-east, occasional showers continuing as winds veer to northwest 50-80 km/hr. Morning highs 8-10 C, some parts of the southeast mild to mid-day (12 C), but afternoon temperatures rapidly falling to near 5 C. Much colder by evening wit brisk westerly winds 50-80 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY windy and colder, passing showers or intervals of sleety mixed precipitation on some higher ground in the east, which could become snow on higher summits. Lows 1-3 C, highs 4-8 C. Winds becoming northwest to north 50-80 km/hr.

THURSDAY still rather cold but not as windy, lows -4 to +2 C, highs 5 to 9 C. Wintry sunshine at times, with a few isolated showers, winds from early morning much reduced, falling off to light and variable and not likely to be very strong in the daytime as high pressure crests over Ireland.

FRIDAY likely to be somewhat milder after a cold start with frost, largely dry conditions, with some sun and cloud mixed. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C, winds still rather light but becoming east to southeast in southern counties.

This easterly tendency will perhaps increase gradually over the following days to the end of February and some colder air could arrive although conditions will be somewhat variable with milder sectors rotating around the high. There will be a slight risk of sleet or hill snow if it does turn colder again. But at the same time, milder days could be as warm as 10 C. A signal persists for a stronger cold shot from the north or northeast after a few more days (into the period 2-5 March). Details on this are really quite speculative at present.

My local weather was partly cloudy with passing light snow showers that briefly filled the air with swirling snow pellets, but left only trace amounts. It was rather cold with temperatures around -2 C. Much colder air is setting up for most of the coming week here.

M.T. Cranium · 20-02-2023 07:44AM

Monday, 20 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 20-26 Feb 2023

-- Temperatures will stay mild to about mid-day Tuesday, and will then become quite cold. The average will be 1-2 deg below normal.

-- Small to moderate amounts of rain will add up to perhaps 25-50 per cent of normal, but some places could be drier than 25 per cent.

-- More frequent sunshine is likely with the colder air masses. This may allow for 25-50 per cent above normal sunshine by end of the week but it will begin rather cloudy.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with a few outbreaks of drizzle this morning. Moderate westerly winds at times, highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will continue mild and breezy, and there could be a few outbreaks of light rain but south and east could remain dry. Lows 6 to 10 C.

TUESDAY the mild air will hold on until afternoon in the east, with a rather slow-moving cold front pushing in with rain, and a few heavy showers giving 5 to 10 mm totals in most places. Turning sharpy colder in the west during the afternoon, and in the east by evening. Highs 10-13 C but temperatures will fall quickly to around 5 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cold and rather windy with sleety showers, some with hail and thunder, and snow on higher slopes. Winds northwest to north at about 40 to 60 km/hr, with stronger gusts near some showers. Lows 1-4 C and highs 5-8 C, feeling closer to zero C in the wind. Skies will be partly cloudy to overcast but a few places in the lee of higher terrain could get longer sunny intervals.

THURSDAY will start out partly cloudy with a few isolated wintry showers, lows -2 to +3 C. Winds less gusty will fall off further during the afternoon, which may become mostly sunny in places. Highs 5 to 9 C.

FRIDAY partly cloudy to sunny, after a morning frost and lows -3 to +2 C, afternoon highs 6 to 10 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will be mostly dry and partly cloudy, with light to moderate east to southeast breezes more of a factor near the south coast where they could produce some bands of wintry showers. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 6 to 10 C both days. This will continue into Monday and Tuesday of the following week except that it may turn a bit colder. There could be several days of cloud, sleety light rain or mixed precipitation.

The longer term outlook still calls for an even colder spell of northeast winds but the details on this could be anywhere from a continuation of the slight wintry turn already established, to some significant wintry precipitation. That needs to be envisaged within the overall uncertainty that this northeast wind event will even materialize since it is still over a week away.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy to overcast and temperatures were close to freezing. It will stay like that to Monday evening, then snow will arrive and it will turn a lot colder here after Tuesday's expected 5-10 cm snowfalls.

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