Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 15 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, moderate northerly winds 40-60 km/hr, and more isolated showers most likely in Connacht, west Ulster and parts of west Munster, all of these mainly of rain or hail but with some risk of snow on higher terrain, and also some shower bands scattered over the Irish Sea which may brush some parts of Wicklow. Highs 5 to 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Rain or sleet may brush past east Ulster into north Leinster during the pre-dawn hours, lows near 0 or 1 C there, but sharp frosts may develop further south and west inland with lows -5 to -2 C, then after some sunny intervals, there will be increasing high cloud dimming the sunshine, then becoming overcast by late in the day, but staying rather cold, highs reaching 5 to 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Milder, a few outbreaks of light rain, but not much accumulation, morning lows 1 to 4 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, milder, morning lows 6 to 9 C near the west coast and in parts of the north, somewhat colder inland and south coast (2 to 5 C) but highs 10 to 12 C in moderate southwest winds.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of light rain later in the day, highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Occasional rain, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning somewhat colder in stages towards Christmas Eve which may be the coldest day in that period, as milder southerly winds develop on Christmas Eve with rain that could turn to sleet during the day, as some of the warmth earlier expected has been taken out of the latest guidance (it may return, but for now, expect perhaps a slightly wintry turn to the weather after Christmas Day again, with temperatures returning to the recent range of 4-7 C and wintry showers possible. The guidance is somewhat scattered too, meaning we can't place much confidence in any given model output more than a few days into the outlook.

My local weather returned to being overcast but stayed rather mild at about 8 C. Eastern regions are mostly done with the snow for now and just a dry, cold pattern looms for the weekend with perhaps a few light flurries near the Great Lakes. In Australia, the cold front we were discussing has weakened and moved off into the Tasman Sea on its way to New Zealand, and temperatures are beginning to return to the 20s in the slightly cooler air that came in from the southwest behind it, meanwhile hot and rather humid conditions continue further north. The main story "down under" is that unusually cool weather will develop over the southern parts of WA then SA this weekend with highs well below average (near 17 C), but ahead of that it will become hot in the east.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 16 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A few brief showers of rain or sleet may continue in eastern counties for a while before clearing southeast, then becoming mostly cloudy with a few sunny intervals, frost inland south clearing rapidly, and turning milder by afternoon with highs reaching 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... A few outbreaks of light rain in the north and west, lows 5 to 8 C. Some partly cloudy intervals south and east, lows 1 to 4 C.

SUNDAY ... Milder, a few outbreaks of light rain, but not much accumulation, clearing towards late afternoon, highs 8 to 11 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, milder, morning lows 6 to 9 C near the west coast and in parts of the north, somewhat colder inland and south coast (2 to 5 C) but highs 10 to 12 C in moderate southwest winds.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of light rain later in the day, highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Occasional rain, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning somewhat colder in stages towards Christmas Eve which may be the coldest day in that period (highs 4 to 7 C), as milder southerly winds develop on Christmas Eve with rain that could turn to sleet during the night of 25th-26th, highs on Christmas Day near 10 C and on St Stephen's Day about 6 C again, then a more unsettled interval with the risk of strong winds developing at times around 28th and possibly also around New Years.

My local weather on Friday brought a snowfall of about 7 cms, the first real covering we have seen here, and the temperature has stayed right around zero degrees C. Light snow also hit parts of the eastern states (around 1-3 cms) but the trend from now to about the 21st is milder, with a return to colder weather just before Christmas in the eastern U.S. and the Midwest.

As mentioned, cooler air is pressing into western Australia and it will be unseasonably cool in Perth this weekend, but hot and mostly dry in the rest of the country, with a weak front making slow progress towards Adelaide by Sunday. There will be isolated thunderstorms in the hills south and west of Sydney, highs there will be around 25 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 17 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain soon ending over eastern counties as a gradual clearing trend works its way east, brighter intervals developing this afternoon with moderate westerly winds, highs 8 to 10 C north and west, 10 to 12 C east and south.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals east and south with a slight frost around midnight, turning quite mild later in the night across most regions with temperatures as low as the freezing point followed by readings of 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, hazy (foggy during the morning in some inland southeast locations) and turning milder, highs 10 to 12 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, outbreaks of rain by later in the day only affecting western and northern counties, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 10 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Continued mild, rain at times, but some brighter spells too, lows about 6 C and highs about 11 C.

THURSDAY ... Clearing, turning a little colder, highs near 9 C.

FRIDAY ... Morning frosts, then milder, highs near 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... The mild trend will continue into Saturday with increasing southwest winds then the 24th will turn considerably colder with the slight chance of wintry showers, highs near 6 C. Christmas Day now looks like it might start out quite cold as the milder air expected is held back to afternoon and evening with a strong southwest wind developing, and rain lasting into the 26th with temperatures at that point steady 8-10 C. The trend after the 26th is back to cooler weather (highs generally around 5 to 7 C) with gusty storms likely around 30th and New Years Day.

My local weather was cloudy with a few snowflakes at times but the pack from Friday's 7 cm fall has compacted to about 3 cms now. The high was about 2 C. The pattern across North America has become zonal for the time being with a milder trend beginning to reach central and then eastern regions fairly soon. Down under, the cool outbreak in WA is making very slow progress eastward and the front will not pass Adelaide until late Monday, so it should remain quite warm everywhere else across the central and eastern regions. A few storms will develop on this frontal boundary later today and again tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 18 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some lingering fog mainly in parts of the inland south and southeast, which should begin to clear by mid-day, otherwise partly cloudy with some hazy sunshine and becoming quite mild, highs for most will reach 8 to 11 C, could stay a little lower in any persistent fog. Light winds in the south will prevent the fog from dissipating quickly.

TONIGHT ... Fog may redevelop and become quite thick in places, but mild near west and north coasts with lows there 8 to 10 C. The inland southeast could fall slightly to around 3 to 6 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, very mild, rain late in the day west and north mostly, and highs 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with a few breaks, outbreaks of light rain, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY ... Morning frosts possible in south and east but staying rather mild otherwise, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will also be quite mild with a few more intervals of light rain and highs near 12 C.

Models diverge somewhat about how quickly it turns colder, but some part of Christmas Eve (Sunday 24th) will become much colder and this trend will persist for the first half of Christmas Day so the morning may be frosty in places, but then milder air will gradually return and it may become quite mild by the 26th (St Stephen's Day) and then increasingly unsettled with a stormy look to some of the guidance from 27th to New Years. Details on that are bound to change but count on some stronger winds at times in that later part of the holiday week.

My local weather produced another snowfall of about 5 cms and that was mixed with freezing drizzle so the roads are quite "slick" around here now with close to 10 cms total accumulation. A larger snowfall of 15 cms or so is expected late Monday and throughout Tuesday, so I will have some "Christmas card" scenes to post at just the right time (the ground was bare here until last Friday). Models are now showing some powerful cold outbreaks for central and eastern regions after a few milder days starting today, just around Christmas Eve. Australia also has some active weather, as a strong cold front pushes through Adelaide later today and more storms form along a warm front out ahead of that, some close to Sydney. It's quite hot away from those storms in most of the eastern states of "Oz" and eastern S.A. but Melbourne has remained cool because of that warm front staying just to their north (which down under is the wrong side to be warm).

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 19 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Hazy and very mild, occasional sunny breaks but a lot of mist and low cloud with highs 11 to 13 C. Rain may develop near northwest coasts by late afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Occasional light rain (1-3 mm) in north and west, overcast and very mild elsewhere, some dense fog patches developing most likely inland south and southeast, lows 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY to SATURDAY will remain quite mild, variations day to day will be slight and there will be a few minor outbreaks of light rain almost daily but little by way of total accumulation, and highs each day will be at least 10 C and perhaps a little higher, with nights fairly mild, lows 3-7 C with slight frosts possible around Friday morning but nothing very severe.

SUNDAY (24 Dec) will continue rather mild (fronts expected earlier seem to be holding off now until Christmas Day) with outbreaks of rain expected, highs 8 to 10 C and winds southwest 40-70 km/hr.

The outlook for Christmas Day and St Stephen's Day remain somewhat less than precise with a lot of spread on the guidance but all showing windy and sometimes wet conditions, and a brief warmer interval followed by colder air. Timing on the mildest period varies from early Christmas morning to late Christmas Day, so at this point I'm going to just say variable with a somewhat stormy theme developing, more so by the 27th when there could be a strong wind from the southeast to south veering westerly with the passage of deep low pressure. This pattern quickly turns colder again with wintry showers possible (as they could be at some point between Christmas Eve and end of Christmas Day). The flow turns increasingly northwest towards New Years, at which point a strong storm system may be in the picture, most likely bringing rain and strong winds followed by mixed wintry showers. So it's not looking great for travel or other outdoor interests in the holiday period, although it looks very benign from now to Christmas Eve, so you should have an easy time getting out and about all week and into the day before Christmas anyway.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with a few glimpses of sun and temperatures near 2 C as a heavy wet snow pack began to settle (generally about 15 cms on the ground), and we are expecting another large fall of 20-25 cms on Tuesday (today in other words although it's not yet midnight here and this snow is on the radar to the south of us).

Extreme cold will move south into central and then eastern North America in a few days' time, for anyone planning to visit these regions between Christmas and New Years, expect some frigid temperatures at times.

In Australia, that cold front we've been tracking is passing through Melbourne and Victoria State as well as western NSW, and will make gradual progress east with severe storms already visible. Further east and into Queensland it remains mostly hot and dry with isolated storms. This is normally about when the wet season begins in the far north of Australia, but all of that action is still up over the equatorial regions of New Guinea and Indonesia. It seems like a late start to the "wet" for places like Darwin.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 20 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Continued mild with a few outbreaks of light rain, highs near 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain mostly confined to south, pushing back to north slowly, so that lows will be mildest in the south (7 to 10 C) and could be chilly for the first part of the night in any clear spots further north (2 to 5 C).

THURSDAY to SATURDAY will continue quite mild with highs each day near 11 or 12 C and most overnight lows well above freezing. Patchy light rain at times but no substantial accumulations are expected.

SUNDAY (24th) will continue mild but winds will gradually increase to southerly 50 to 70 km/hr with rain much of the day, 10-20 mm likely. Highs near 10 C.

CHRISTMAS EVE into early CHRISTMAS DAY will be breezy and wet as a cold front arrives and pushes temperatures down gradually from 10 C around midnight to 4 or 5 degrees by morning.

CHRISTMAS DAY (Monday 25th) will turn colder and there may be some snow on hills in northern parts, temperatures steady around 5 or 6 C for most, 2 to 4 C in higher parts of the north.

The outlook is quite volatile and details could change. A rather slow-moving low just to the west of Ireland will track across the country on the 26th and could intensify further by the 27th as it moves somewhere near southern Britain, pulling in much colder air. This will lead to frequent showers or rain on 26th with temperatures probably not much higher than 6 C, and falling temperatures on 27th with strong northwest winds and the risk of sleet (snow on higher ground in north and west).

Beyond that, it appears likely to remain rather cold to New Years and then become at least windy if not stormy soon after New Years, 2nd to 4th is the period most likely to produce a significant wind event (and this has nothing to do with how you spend NYE).

My local weather can be described as being inside a snow globe, light to moderate snow has been falling for 24 hours and we have about 10 cms with more to come. In this mountain valley, we get long periods of calm and short periods of blustery winds (from south or north), so looking for the north wind later Wednesday with the clearance, then crisp and cold for several days. This colder air is massing over the central regions and will move south in waves to bring much below normal temperatures to almost all regions of North America within 3-4 days time, and for the last week of the year, with snowstorm potential developing along the east coast.

Briefly, in Australia the cold front we've been tracking is now well into NSW and Queensland (southwest) and it could set off a few more storms today; a warm and dry pattern is returning to western and central regions.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 21 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

The winter solstice occurs today at 4:28 p.m. Irish standard time.


TODAY ... Light rain clearing east, then cloudy with a few sunny breaks, very mild, with another interval of rain developing in parts of the west and north later, highs 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain at times, mild, fog and mist in some places, lows 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will continue quite mild and generally dry with a few isolated outbreaks of light rain, highs near 12 C.

SUNDAY (24th) will bring 10-20 mm of rain for most areas, and it will gradually turn colder in parts of the north (temperatures falling to 5 C) while staying mild elsewhere to about midnight Christmas Eve, with a steady light rain or drizzle.

MONDAY (25th, Christmas Day) will turn colder with some of the rain turning sleety and the chance of some snow in higher parts of the north, before partial clearing develops later, with moderate westerly winds and highs 4 to 6 C for most but possibly as high as 9 C in some parts of the south.

OUTLOOK for the rest of the holiday period is unsettled with a generally rather cold temperature trend (mostly around 6 or 7 C) from 26th to 28th, some intervals of strong winds likely, and frequent rain or sleet in some higher locations. A stronger windstorm may develop around the 29th with slightly higher temperatures at that point, and a continuing unsettled and sometimes windy regime is expected for the New Years period too.

My local weather cleared up gradually on Wednesday with a high near 1 C, then clear skies and very cold temperatures (feels like -10 C) approaching midnight here. Models are having trouble resolving the details of a stormy interval for the east coast of North America over the holiday week but some snow seems inevitable given how cold it will become inland and over most central regions by Christmas.

Meanwhile, a cold front is running out of steam in Australia and producing a few storms south and west of Brisbane while all of the southern half sees a reload of warm and dry summer weather on what is their summer solstice down under.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 22 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and mild, with a few brighter intervals developing in parts of the south, highs 11 to 13 C. A few patches of drizzle may be found but not very much accumulation is expected.

TONIGHT ... Overcast and mild with lows 6 to 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and mild, highs 11 to 13 C. Some rain developing later afternoon or evening.

SUNDAY (24th) will bring moderate south to southwest winds, 10-20 mm rainfalls and some fog over higher terrain, morning lows near 7 C and afternoon highs near 10 C.

CHRISTMAS EVE (night 24th-25th) will remain rather mild with rain becoming quite persistent, a further 10-20 mm possible, and then starting to clear from the west by morning in western counties as temperatures gradually fall from 10 to about 5 C.

CHRISTMAS DAY (Monday 25th) will see the partial clearing trend push the last of the rain out of Leinster by mid-day and there may be some sunny breaks with wintry showers for parts of the northwest, at least on higher terrain. Highs will reach 9 C (early) in the east and 7 C west. By evening it could be closer to freezing.

ST STEPHEN's DAY (Tuesday 26th) will be colder with a mixture of sunshine and wintry showers, those more frequent in west and north. Morning lows near freezing and afternoon highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK continues rather unpleasant although not disruptive for travel most of the time, with some sleety rain at times, quite cold on 27th and just slightly milder from then until New Years Eve. Some time around the 30th it could become rather windy and then expect a very active weather pattern early in January 2018.

My local weather brought another 5 cms of snow from a weak disturbance that drifted south in the colder air mass, highs reached only -5 C. The cold is massing over northern parts of Canada to make a charge southward around Christmas Eve, leading to snowfall events on the east coast, largest of which appears to be around the 29th or 30th, and bone-chilling cold temperatures for many over the holiday period. Down under, the pattern has gone quiet with most places likely to enjoy two or three days of seasonably warm to hot weather.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, December 23, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few breaks, mild, highs near 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, mild, lows near 6 C.

SUNDAY 24th ... Cloudy then some rain at times by afternoon or evening, mild, highs around 11 C.

CHRISTMAS EVE (overnight 24th-25th) ... Mild in east and south with further rain, about 10-15 mm expected, rain ending in west and north, clearing towards dawn, temperatures will stay close to 9 C east and south but could drop to about 5 C in west and north.

CHRISTMAS DAY (Monday 25th) ... Rain ending before mid-day in Leinster, partly cloudy for the mid-day period in most regions, a few wintry showers developing in moderate westerly winds over Connacht and west Ulster. Highs will be early in the day for east, near 10 C, falling to 5 C by afternoon; and near 7 C west, falling to 2 C inland by late afternoon.

NIGHT of 25th-26th ... Windy and cold with occasional sleety showers, lows 1-3 C.

ST STEPHEN's DAY (Tuesday 26th) ... Windy at times, cold, sleety rain developing later morning south and west, spreading slowly across southern regions; more showery or hit-or-miss light wintry showers further north, temperatures steady 3-5 C and feeling quite cold. Some snow may develop on higher terrain later in the day.

OUTLOOK ... Windy at times, unsettled, and quite cold most of the time from 27th to New Years Day, strong winds may develop on one or two occasions, temperatures will be close to 5 C and there will be mixed falls from passing wintry showers as well as sleety bands of light rain or wet snow. A stronger storm could develop early in January bringing very strong winds.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy with sunny breaks and very cold, highs not much better than -5 C, and it's heading down to about -12 C overnight. We have a large deep lake in this valley that seldom freezes and that makes overnight lows below -20 C rare, but I think that value is often recorded away from this lakeshore area in the general region over deep snow cover. A frigid air mass is moving south out of the arctic over western Canada in the next 2-3 days and will be sitting over the east-central U.S. by about the 27th, creating several opportunities for snow in the larger cities of the Atlantic seaboard, models keep "chopping and changing" the details but two periods that appear likely are around 28th and 31st into New Years Day. Either of those storms could be a heavy blizzard according to various guidance.

In Australia, it's hot and dry today for most, cloudy and somewhat cooler in parts of Victoria state near Melbourne though.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 24 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Overcast with rain developing by afternoon in western counties, just patchy drizzle before that, with winds increasing to southwest 50-80 km/hr. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain continuing, 10-20 mm likely, mild for most until midnight, and staying mild in Leinster and east Ulster, lows will range from 5 C west to 9 C east.

TOMORROW ... Christmas Day will see a few brighter intervals developing in the west, but it seems likely to stay overcast in the east with the rain tapering off to light showers by mid-day. One or two wintry showers could develop by evening in parts of Connact and west Ulster. Highs will be similar to the overnight lows above as temperatures stall out near those values then begin to fall slowly by evening when readings will be closer to 2 C.

TUESDAY ... St Stephen's Day will be bright and chilly in most parts of the country, except near the south coast where it will be overcast with rain possible (a lot of that system will be off to the south however). There could be scattered wintry showers in northern counties where it will also be rather windy at times, but central counties from Galway to Dublin will have generally rather light winds and sunny spells. Morning lows -2 to +2 C with some frost and potential for icy roads in a few spots, then highs near 6 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy at times, northwest 40-70 km/hr, cold with passing sleety showers that could drop snow on some hills, also a few sunny breaks in the mix, lows -2 to +2 C and highs near 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, a few wintry showers, turning a bit milder later in the day with rain developing, highs near 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy with rain followed by scattered showers, these may contain some hail. Highs near 9 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... As we approach the New Year, continued unsettled, rather cold, and risk of some stronger winds developing at times (southwest to west most likely), with a colder theme again although nothing too wintry is definite yet, typical temperatures around New Years Eve will likely be 2-5 C.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny, breezy and very cold, with the high only about -8 C, and heading for -18 C overnight under a strong high trapped in the valleys. This high is like a mini-me compared to the Dr Evil high over Alberta that is dropping south to terrorize the central and eastern portions of North America with severe cold in the next few days. The models are having all sorts of trouble figuring out when and where this will lead to the almost inevitable east coast snowstorms but there's a starter event for 5-10 cms forming up now and heading towards New England. That one will just pull in the very cold air and set it up for future developments that are most likely to come around New Years Eve in the form of a strong coastal low, so there could be a major snowstorm right at New Years for the larger cities. The Midwest will just be frigid and the Great Lakes will see heavy localized lake effect snowfalls.

Merry Christmas to all ... I will look in tomorrow (as you know, I am working on these forecasts the previous evening my time) and perhaps post an update, if not, that means no big changes and a forecast should appear early 26th for you.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ 25 Dec 2017 0700h
___________________________

Just one change in the forecast to mention, and that would be regarding tomorrow's cold rain expected near the south coast -- some indications now that this will try to push a bit further north where it could begin to turn to wet snow by late afternoon or evening. This may be confined to mostly higher ground, but it could briefly appear in more populated areas of the inland south.

Otherwise, not seeing too many differences from earlier forecast, so look for a gradual clearing of this persistent rain in the west this morning, and during the afternoon in the east.

And once again, have a wonderful Christmas or whatever you're celebrating.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 26 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny intervals and quite cold, although more cloud likely near both the south coast and northwest counties. Outbreaks of cold rain or sleet will cover the southern counties by mid-day and this could change over to heavy wet snow over some parts of the inland south by late afternoon and early evening. While it seems likely to stay dry from about Galway to Dublin, the north could also see some sleety showers. The rain in the south (or wet snow) will be accompanied by increasing northeasterly winds 40-60 km/hr making it feel very raw and cold. Highs 5 to 7 C.

TONIGHT ... The last of any sleet should come to an end over the south as winds back further to northerly then northwesterly 50-70 km/hr. Very cold with a few snow showers developing in bands feeding south from Donegal Bay and reaching central counties at least. Later some mixed wintry showers will form in west Munster. Lows will reach -2 to +2 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and very cold with passing wintry showers likely, winds northwest 40-70 km/hr and highs near 5 C at best.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, wintry showers or sleet turning to rain and becoming rather persistent in the south and west, a little milder, lows 0 to 3 C and highs 6 to near 10 C in the southwest.

FRIDAY ... Windy, rain followed by showers and partial clearing, highest temperatures early in the day (near 11 C) then falling back to about 5 C in near gale force southwest to west winds.

OUTLOOK ... Windy at times, rather cold through New Years Eve, then slight warming on New Years Day with rain at times. Continued unsettled and windy at times for the first several days of 2018. Temperatures generally around 5 to 7 C.

My local weather on Christmas Day was overcast and very cold, with the sun poking through the low cloud deck onto higher slopes around the valley. Highs reached only about -9 C. It is bitterly cold across the prairies and into the northern plains states, and parts of the Midwest, and turning much colder in the northeastern U.S. ... the models are still having a hard time getting details consistent for a New Years snowstorm but odds seem good that at least New York and Boston will see heavy snow around then, and perhaps further south to Washington D.C. although that seems less assured. It will stay very cold and turn even colder behind that potential storm. If you have a visit planned, be prepared for temperatures well below normal, like -20 C or thereabouts with lower wind chill values. Only the far southwest near the border with Mexico, and the Gulf coast into Florida, remains above freezing and even there some frosts are expected towards end of the month.

In Australia, some heavy thunderstorms today near Brisbane, generally dry and warm most other places, but a tropical storm threatens the north coast of Western Australia (late December is like late June in our hemisphere so this is not entirely unexpected).

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 27 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and very cold with passing wintry showers, some 3-5 cm accumulations of snow likely on higher terrain in north and west, but more chance of sunny intervals in east and south. Winds NNW 50-70 km/hr will ease by this afternoon and evening. Highs 3 to 7 C.

(Note: The disturbance that crossed Ireland yesterday has developed considerably into a snowstorm for west-central England overnight, travel disruptions can be expected and there are power outages -- and this is all heading for the southeast later with very strong north to northeast winds. Travel to London may be disrupted before mid-day. The storm is having some impacts on France also, mainly strong northerly winds and very cold).

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers mainly confined to Connacht and west Ulster, parts of west Munster and dying out there after midnight. Clear intervals with frost elsewhere, lows -4 to +1 C. (The storm in southern Britain will be dying out and moving east).

THURSDAY ... Sleet may develop with falls of snow possible on higher terrain, heavier in south, 2-4 cm of snow is possible across south-central counties inland and especially on higher terrain although it may fall lower down at times. Somewhat improved by afternoon with a few sunny breaks, highs 5 to 7 C eventually but mid-day temperatures could be zero to +3 C in the sleet and snow.

FRIDAY ... Another round of sleet and snow is likely to develop late Thursday evening or early Friday morning with potential for 3-5 cm coverings inland west, 1-3 cm coverings further east, but mixing to sleet or a cold rain near sea level and in urban areas. Once again, slight improvements will develop by afternoon although staying quite cold with sunny intervals. Morning lows about -1 to +1 C and highs 3 to 6 C. More sleet or wet snow by evening in north, turning to rain overnight.

SATURDAY ... Windy and briefly milder with rain tapering to showers, highs near 10 or 11 C early in the day, as winds veer from southwest to westerly 50 to 80 km/hr with higher gusts in exposed coastal locations. About 10 mm of rain is expected. Temperatures will be closer to 2-5 C by late afternoon with a cold rain turning to sleet on hills.

SUNDAY 31st (New Year's Eve daytime hours) ... Breezy to windy and cold with mixed wintry showers, winds moderate westerly 40 to 70 km/hr, highs near 6 C and falling to near freezing by midnight (the actual New Year's Eve). There may be a snowfall event as suggested on some guidance but details obviously a little too far out with a relatively small and fast-moving frontal wave across the south and marginal temperatures for snow, but it certainly looks colder than many recent NYEs.

MONDAY 1st Jan (New Year's Day) ... Overcast, occasional wintry showers but turning milder as winds become southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, rain by evening, highs about 9 C.

TUESDAY 2nd Jan ... Windy with rain at times, highs near 11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Very unsettled with potential for strong winds on several occasions in the first week to ten days of the new year. Temperatures will be oscillating between cold days near freezing and mild days near 10 C.

My local weather on what is known here as Boxing Day (Tuesday 26th) was mostly cloudy and bitterly cold with highs near -10 C. The cold is severe further east and some parts of Alberta failed to reach -25 C. Even as far south as Chicago, the high was only -15 C. This severe cold is locked in for about a week or more with weak disturbances hitting the west coast near Oregon and Washington states, dying out over the Rockies, and then minor storms trying to find a home near the Gulf coast or east coast, details rather murky but eventually this seems like a good setup for a big east coast snowstorm probably a few days into January now. The severe cold is likely to persist for several weeks with minor interruptions although it should move out of the far west after New Years.

In Australia, a cyclone (as yet unnamed but expected to be marginal tropical cyclone Hilda at landfall west of Broome, WA early 28th local time) has brought some damage to remote coastal communities on the north coast. Most of the south and east are enjoying warm to hot summer weather but there are storms brewing for Melbourne and south/east of Adelaide later today. As mentioned, these forecasts are made around mid-day Australian time so if it's mid-day in Ireland then it's getting on towards sunset same date "down under" and if you're reading this by late afternoon then it's midnight(ish) and getting into tomorrow's date in Australia.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 28 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for widespread icy roads in west-central and southern inland regions, with black ice a potential hazard before sleet or snow begins to fall from an advancing band of mixed precipitation. The worst conditions are likely to be in Connacht but parts of Ulster and inland west Munster will have locally poor driving conditions until at least mid-day. This band will make somewhat irregular progress into eastern counties with problems likely to be more confined to higher areas since it will arrive after the feeble warming likely so while chilly it may be generally a bit milder in Leinster when the band arrives, but then it could change back to wet snow this evening with falling temperatures. In any case, expect some poor road conditions almost anywhere at some point later today.

TODAY... THURSDAY (if you're like me, that alone may be helpful) ... Widespread heavy frost this morning inland west and central, black ice may be present on roads ahead of a band of rain or sleet which may include falls of snow possible on higher terrain, heavier in parts of the inland south and Connacht, 2-4 cm of snow is possible in those regions and especially on higher terrain although it may fall lower down at times. Somewhat improved in the west by afternoon with a few sunny breaks, highs 5 to 7 C eventually but mid-day temperatures could be zero to +3 C in the sleet and snow. Further east, the original band of mixed precipitation may not arrive before it begins to fragment but a second outbreak will follow across all regions by late afternoon into the evening and this one may pose more of a risk of localized icy roads and snowfalls for Leinster and east Ulster, mainly on higher terrain or in valleys of the inland southeast.

TONIGHT ... Another round of sleet and snow is likely to develop late Thursday evening or early Friday morning with potential for 3-5 cm coverings inland west, 1-3 cm coverings further east, but mixing to sleet or a cold rain near sea level and in urban areas. Lows -1 to +2 C.

FRIDAY ... Sleet and moderate southwest winds, clearing for part of the late morning and afternoon hours, highs only 3 to 6 C. More sleet or wet snow likely with heavy rain near outer coasts in the southwest by evening, covering some higher parts of the south with 3 to 5 cms of heavy wet snow. This will continue into Saturday morning turning to heavy rain across the south as temperatures rise during the night to around 8 C in the south, meanwhile sleet or wet snow possible further north where temperatures will be once again either side of the freezing mark, with some icy roads likely.

SATURDAY ... Windy and turning colder again towards daybreak after the overnight spell of briefly milder conditions with the associated rain tapering to showers, highs near 10 or 11 C early in the day, as winds veer from southwest to westerly 50 to 80 km/hr with higher gusts in exposed coastal locations. About 10 mm of rain is expected but this will be finished by mid-morning, then temperatures will be closer to 2-5 C by late afternoon with another bout of colder rain turning to sleet on hills. Saturday night will be chilly with mixed wintry showers and lows -2 to +2 C.

SUNDAY 31st (New Year's Eve daytime hours) ... Breezy to windy and cold with mixed wintry showers, winds moderate westerly 40 to 70 km/hr, but could be closer to 80 to 110 km/hr in counties near Donegal Bay during the early morning hours, a localized alert may be needed for that but it will be confined to the northwest on current guidance, then highs during the day near 6 C and falling to near freezing by midnight (the actual New Year's Eve).

MONDAY 1st Jan (New Year's Day) ... Overcast, occasional wintry showers but turning slightly milder as winds become southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, rain or sleet by evening, highs about 7 C.

TUESDAY 2nd Jan ... Windy with rain at times, highs near 10 C. Winds southwest veering westerly 60 to 100 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY 3rd Jan ... Windy and colder, mixed wintry showers, highs near 5 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Very unsettled with potential for strong winds on several occasions in the first week to ten days of the new year. Temperatures will be oscillating between cold days near freezing and mild days near 10 C but the overall theme looks chilly and there may be outbreaks of heavy snow in western counties at times in strong west to northwest winds (no sign of easterly type cold in the current model runs, as extremely cold air will be pouring into the Atlantic from North America driving a strong jet stream until at least the second week of January, but that jet stream will not be coming from a southwesterly direction very often, so not a very mild Atlantic pattern).

My local weather on Wednesday featured light snow in valleys and as we discovered heavier snow in higher areas nearby (5-10 cms), and it stayed quite cold at about -7 for a high ... bitterly cold across most of Canada and the northern half of the U.S. both today and for the next week or two weeks possibly, with snowstorm potential on the east coast now most likely Jan 3-5 (lighter snow this coming weekend).

It appears that Tropical Cyclone "Hilda" is still over the ocean north of Western Australia but should be moving inland tonight and dissipating over that state on Friday. Cooler weather with a few showers has spread north from Victoria (state) and reached Sydney but further north it remains sunny and hot.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 29 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sleety rain or hail showers this morning with blustery southwest winds, veering to westerly (70 to 100 km/hr at times), clearing for part of the late morning and afternoon hours, highs only 4 to 8 C. More sleet or wet snow likely by late afternoon in parts of the west, but turning to a heavy rain in the southwest by evening.

TONIGHT ... Heavy rain for the first part of the night across the south as temperatures rise to around 8 C, meanwhile sleet or wet snow possible further north where temperatures will be once again either side of the freezing mark, with some icy roads likely in parts of Connacht and Ulster. In between, occasional rain with lows about 4 to 6 C Galway to Dublin.

SATURDAY ... Windy and turning colder again towards daybreak after the overnight spell of briefly milder conditions with the associated rain tapering to showers, highs near 10 or 11 C early in the day, as winds veer from southwest to westerly 50 to 80 km/hr with higher gusts to about 110 km/hr in exposed coastal locations especially around north Connacht and west Ulster, timing for peak gusts would be afternoon to evening across the north-central counties. About 10 mm of rain is expected but this will be a combination of early rain finished by mid-morning, and later rain mostly in the evening hours when temperatures will be closer to 2-5 C by late afternoon with another bout of colder rain turning to sleet on hills. Saturday night will be chilly and still rather windy with mixed wintry showers and lows -2 to +2 C.

SUNDAY 31st (New Year's Eve daytime hours) ... Breezy to windy and cold with mixed wintry showers, winds moderate westerly 40 to 70 km/hr after some stronger gusts closer to 80 to 110 km/hr in counties near Donegal Bay during the early morning hours, then highs during the day near 6 C and falling to near freezing by midnight (the actual New Year's Eve). Some wintry showers likely around midnight New Year's Eve.

MONDAY 1st Jan (New Year's Day) ... Overcast, occasional wintry showers but turning slightly milder as winds become southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, rain or sleet by evening, highs about 7 C.

TUESDAY 2nd Jan ... Windy with rain at times, highs near 10 C. Winds southwest veering westerly 60 to 100 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY 3rd Jan ... Windy and colder, mixed wintry showers, highs near 5 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY 4th-5th will bring strong and possibly very strong winds at times with temperatures around 7 C falling off later to near 3 C with showers or rain turning to sleet or wet snow especially over higher parts of the north and west.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for quite cold weather by weekend of 6th-7th with some snow at times, and strong northerly winds. This may relent to milder spells in the second week of January.

My local weather has been what many dream about seeing, heavy snow falling almost non-stop for the entire day, and 35 to 40 cms accumulation (a very powdery light snow that will likely compact to 20 cms but then we're expecting about that much more to fall on Friday here). This snow has been widespread inland from the rainy coast and some highways are closed in mountainous areas. It remains bitterly cold east of us with readings of -20 to -30 quite common across the country, more like -15 in the northern United States, and -5 to -10 C almost to the Gulf coast, where it remains a little above freezing but below their normal values too. Snow may make several appearances near the Great Lakes and east coast over the coming week and it will remain very cold.

Down in Australia, the tropical cyclone moved inland and will rain itself out for a day or so, linking up with an area of thunderstorms near Kalgoorlie in central WA, and that links through to showers around Adelaide and heavy rain around Melbourne where temperatures may be held down into the 17-20 C range; otherwise much of NSW apart from the far south, and all of Queensland are dry and very warm, with highs into the 30s in places. Perth is also warm and sunny too far west to be affected by the frontal zone.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 30 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for very strong winds tonight in Connacht, west Ulster and some exposed areas of west Munster. Storm "Dylan" will form rapidly today west of Ireland and is most likely to track just north of Mayo and Donegal into Scotland. As it races past tonight, southwest winds veering westerly will briefly gust as high as 130 km/hr in some parts of the northwest, and 110 km/hr more widely across all but the inland southeast and other protected areas well inland. These winds will increase rapidly after midnight and will probably subside rather quickly too, shortly after daybreak in the west, and by mid-day in the east. However, details are not nailed down with this rather small, compact storm, and it could go off track so check for an update around 6 to 7 p.m.

TODAY ... Brief rain showers will continue for a while, then some sunny intervals may develop, in a moderate southwest to west wind (40-70 km/hr). Where it is currently mild in the south, temperatures are likely to slide down gradually to about 7 C this afternoon, while in the north where it's rather cold, they will rise to about 5, and any snow or frost will dissipate soon.

TONIGHT ... Rain will sweep in this evening and winds will gradually increase to southwest 70-110 km/hr for most (after midnight) with local 90-130 km/hr potentially damaging wind gusts in exposed parts of Connacht and west Ulster. These winds are expected to peak around 0300h (0600h for north Donegal). The effects of storm "Dylan" may be less dramatic in the south and east, but it will still become quite windy. Temperatures will be steady 8-10 C most of the night.

SUNDAY (New Year's Eve daytime hours) ... The strong winds will ease steadily across the north and some central counties, with falling temperatures in a moderate westerly wind by mid-day, and some passing showers that may become wintry on higher terrain. By afternoon it will be cold with readings near 4 C. Some heavier showers may develop and produce sleet or snow at times, with another bout of strong winds peaking around 80 km/hr in the evening.

NEW YEAR's EVE (overnight hours) ... Windy and cold with sleet or snow possible at times, icy roads may be an issue given the context especially, and temperatures between -1 and +2 C. Feeling more like -5 C in westerly winds 40-70 km/hr.

NEW YEAR's DAY (Monday 1st January 2018) ... Bright, cold and rather blustery with isolated wintry showers, winds westerly 40-70 km/hr, highs near 6 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy and turning milder with rain at times, winds southwest 60-100 km/hr, highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and colder with passing sleet or hail showers, winds west-northwest 70-110 km/hr, lows and highs 3-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Very windy with rain turning to sleet then snow showers, temperatures briefly as high as 10 C then falling back sharply towards freezing. Winds westerly 70-120 km/hr. This storm may require alerts and it may get a name too.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, cold, mixed rain and snow likely, temperatures steady around 2-4 C.

OUTLOOK ... It appears likely that the weather will stay very unsettled and at times stormy with temperatures sometimes rising a bit but very cold on average especially in higher terrain where frequent snow may begin to accumulate. So there will likely be a contrast in conditions from protected coastal areas to upland locations, and in the background some guidance has hints of a much colder period, but if that doesn't materialize the most likely default weather pattern is a cold northwest flow with frequent showery disturbances embedded. There were hints of a cold easterly on one model, however, so we're watching that with interest.

My local weather continued overcast but only a bit of light snow, thankfully as there was a lot of snow clearance to be done, in temperatures not quite as bone chilling on Friday (-4 C). It remains bitterly cold from northern B.C. across all the rest of Canada and the northern United States with many records for the date (especially for places that started observing after 1933 when it was probably colder at those locations). A minor snowfall event is moving through the Washington D.C. region overnight and then out to sea, and the cold won't be much affected, but models keep toying with different outcomes for a probable major east coast storm that could hit anywhere from North Carolina to New England and Atlantic Canada (into eastern Ontario and Quebec too). This would most likely be around 3-4 January, with extreme cold before and after the storm.

Nothing too active in Australia, the remnants of the tropical cyclone are setting off storms in the outback west of Alice Springs, and there are some storms west of Brisbane, with a cooler air mass advancing through New South Wales. The far west remains warm and sunny.

Watch for an update on Storm Dylan around 6 to 7 p.m. this evening.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE __ Sat 30 December 2017 __ 7 p.m.
________________________________________

Storm "Dylan" is now located about 300 miles west of Valentia and starting to intensify. Guidance has not shown anything very concerning for most of the country overnight, but I continue to believe that there will be some gusts to 130 km/hr near the coastal zone north of Mace Head around to Malin Head. If you're in an exposed location in Connacht or west Ulster, expect some strong and possibly damaging wind gusts from a southwest to west direction starting a little after midnight in west Mayo and Galway, to about 0500h for onset in north Donegal. This period of strong winds will probably last 3-4 hours before a gradual reduction sets in.

The effects may be quite localized and peak gusts may only reach 80 km/hr in many other locations around Ireland overnight and during Sunday morning, but exposed coastal locations could reach 100 km/hr.

I may post another update between 11 p.m. and midnight if I feel this update needs any significant amendments.

Another comment on another subject, the longer range model output looks quite wintry past 2nd of January. I will be looking at that quite closely in the morning forecast update.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 31 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

Just in the spirit of New Year, I have added one conversation piece to each of the first few forecasts, see how many of these you actually hear (doesn't count if you say it).

TODAY ... The strong winds will ease steadily across the north and some central counties, and it will continue partly cloudy (longer sunny intervals south and east) with slowly falling temperatures in a moderate westerly wind (50-70 km/hr) by mid-day, and some passing showers (more frequent in west and north) that may become wintry on higher terrain by afternoon when it will be feeling quite cold with readings near 4 C. Some heavier showers may develop and produce sleet or snow at times, with another bout of stronger winds with gusts peaking around 80 km/hr in the evening. The most likely thing you may hear today is, "did anyone see Dylan?"

TONIGHT ... NEW YEAR's EVE ... Windy and cold with sleet or snow possible at times, icy roads may be an issue especially 0200-0500h when people may be heading home from celebrations, and temperatures between -1 and +2 C except closer to 4 C near west coast. Feeling more like -5 to -1 C in westerly winds 40-70 km/hr. Not much accumulation of snow expected and hail showers may be more widespread, thunder is also possible with heavier showers. The overnight quote that I expect most will hear is, "I'm not going out in that," or if not, "that moon must be full then."

NEW YEAR's DAY (Monday 1st January 2018) ... Bright, cold and rather blustery with isolated bands of wintry showers feeding in from around Donegal Bay and also across west Munster, these less frequent in Leinster with more wintry sunshine there, and winds becoming north-westerly 60-80 km/hr, highs only 4 to 6 C. You will hear some person say, "it's a wind that cuts right through you."

TUESDAY ... Windy and turning milder with rain at times, from early morning and resuming in the afternoon after some breaks, with winds southwest 60-100 km/hr, highs near 10 C. About 10-15 mm rain. "Back to this, well you don't have to shovel it."

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and colder with passing sleet or hail showers, winds west-northwest 70-110 km/hr, lows and highs 3-5 C. No more quotes, I expect people will now be facing the onslaught in grim silence.

THURSDAY ... Very windy with rain turning to sleet then snow showers, temperatures briefly as high as 10 C then falling back sharply towards freezing. Winds westerly 70-120 km/hr. This storm may require alerts and it may get a name too. Temperatures will fall slowly at first, then quite sharply towards late afternoon when winds ease somewhat but shift into the north. These details may change, of course, but a strong storm has been appearing at this time interval for several days on most guidance.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, cold, mixed rain and snow likely, temperatures steady around 2-4 C. Here again, details subject to change but snowfalls of 3 to 6 cms could occur in some eastern counties, inland but possibly not that far above sea level as the flow turns northeast.

SATURDAY ... Frosty with isolated snow showers possible in east to northeast winds, temperatures steady around 1 or 2 C but some sharp frosts possible inland especially further west away from moderating influences of Irish Sea.

SUNDAY ... Sharp frosts, cold until late in the day when possibly milder in west at least, lows -5 to -2 C and highs 2 to 7 C.

MONDAY 8th ... Windy with sleet or wet snow turning to rain then back to snow or sleet again, winds S-SW 70-100 km/hr, temperatures will be briefly near 10 C then turning much colder again as winds veer westerly with rapidly falling temperatures.

OUTLOOK ... This very cold west to northwest flow will last for several days, and the less certain two-week outlook suggests the same pattern of brief milder intervals and several days of cold, unsettled weather repeating, and you'll hear "I can't wait for spring."

My sentiments exactly here, after the last of the heavy snow finished on Saturday morning, it became very windy with blowing snow and cleared up quickly to sunshine and temperatures near -4 C. We have about 50-60 cm of snow on the ground here. Extreme cold continues from most of B.C. to the east coast including about the northern half of the U.S. excluding the Pacific northwest states where it has turned milder. In between, severe freezing rain hit a portion of the lower Fraser valley east of Vancouver, 60 mm of ice accretion has brought down many power lines and tree branches around Abbotsford, B.C. The coast is milder with light rain.

A major snowstorm is brewing for New England and eastern Canada, and it could extend further west but those regions have the highest certainty of getting a blizzard around January 3-5.

Here's how Australia will be looking towards New Years' Eve (which is not that far away in their time zones): Most of the populated southern half will be dry and quite warm this evening, the only thunderstorm activity likely in the whole country would be in two areas, one west of Alice Springs (largely empty outback) and parts of south Queensland west of Brisbane. Some of these storms appear quite intense and they are not moving very fast so that flooding might occur with them.

So, I hope everyone has an enjoyable New Years Eve and Day, and a happy 2018 to follow. I feel like I might have gone forward in a time machine seeing that number.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 1st of January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... NEW YEAR's DAY (Monday 1st January 2018) ... Bright, cold and rather blustery with isolated bands of wintry showers feeding in from around Donegal Bay and also across west Munster, these less frequent in coastal Leinster with more wintry sunshine there, although one or two more organized bands of showers may reach the east and south coasts with winds becoming north-westerly 60-80 km/hr, some higher gusts near Atlantic coasts. Highs only 4 to 8 C with lower values inland north, higher near south, and west coasts.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals in the east at first, cloudy with rain developing in the west, the rain possibly starting as sleet further east, lows zero to +2 C but temperatures rising to 7 C by morning in the south and west.

TUESDAY ... Windy and turning milder with rain at times, from early morning and resuming in the afternoon after some breaks, with winds then increasing to southwest 60-100 km/hr, highs near 10 C. About 10-15 mm rain.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and colder with passing sleet or hail showers, winds west-northwest 70-110 km/hr, lows and highs 3-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Very windy with rain turning to sleet then snow showers, temperatures briefly as high as 10 C then falling back sharply towards freezing. Winds moderate westerly but could increase to near 90 km/hr in parts of the south with the centre of low pressure likely to track through Munster. This storm may require alerts and it may get a name too. Temperatures will fall slowly at first, then quite sharply towards late afternoon when winds ease somewhat but shift into the north.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, cold, mixed rain and snow likely, temperatures steady around 2-4 C. Here again, details subject to change but snowfalls of 3 to 6 cms could occur in some eastern counties, inland but possibly not that far above sea level as the flow turns northeast.

SATURDAY ... Frosty with isolated snow showers possible in east to northeast winds, temperatures steady around 1 or 2 C but some sharp frosts possible inland especially further west away from moderating influences of Irish Sea.

SUNDAY ... Sharp frosts, cold until late in the day when possibly milder in west at least, lows -5 to -2 C and highs 2 to 7 C.

MONDAY 8th ... Windy with sleet or wet snow turning to rain then back to snow or sleet again, winds S-SW 70-100 km/hr by late in the day, temperatures will be briefly near 10 C then turning much colder again as winds veer westerly with rapidly falling temperatures.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Several days of cold, windy weather with passing wintry showers for the rest of the second week of January, and the pattern looks set to keep repeating with occasional windy spells, brief rain and milder conditions followed by several days of colder and unsettled weather.

As I'm a bit late getting to this "tonight" (my time zone), I will just note that my local weather was once again bright but cold with highs near -4 C, and that intense cold remains locked in further east across most of Canada and the U.S., except for the southwestern states. A snowstorm is still predicted for Jan 3-5 on the east coast. We'll get back to looking at Australia tomorrow.

highdef

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Monday, 1st of January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... NEW YEAR's DAY (Monday 1st January 2018) ... Bright, cold and rather blustery with isolated bands of wintry showers feeding in from around Donegal Bay and also across west Munster, these less frequent in coastal Leinster with more wintry sunshine there, although one or two more organized bands of showers may reach the east and south coasts with winds becoming north-westerly 60-80 km/hr, some higher gusts near Atlantic coasts. Highs only 4 to 8 C with lower values inland north, higher near south, and west coasts.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals in the east at first, cloudy with rain developing in the west, the rain possibly starting as sleet further east, lows zero to +2 C but temperatures rising to 7 C by morning in the south and west.

TUESDAY ... Windy and turning milder with rain at times, from early morning and resuming in the afternoon after some breaks, with winds then increasing to southwest 60-100 km/hr, highs near 10 C. About 10-15 mm rain.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and colder with passing sleet or hail showers, winds west-northwest 70-110 km/hr, lows and highs 3-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Very windy with rain turning to sleet then snow showers, temperatures briefly as high as 10 C then falling back sharply towards freezing. Winds moderate westerly but could increase to near 90 km/hr in parts of the south with the centre of low pressure likely to track through Munster. This storm may require alerts and it may get a name too. Temperatures will fall slowly at first, then quite sharply towards late afternoon when winds ease somewhat but shift into the north.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, cold, mixed rain and snow likely, temperatures steady around 2-4 C. Here again, details subject to change but snowfalls of 3 to 6 cms could occur in some eastern counties, inland but possibly not that far above sea level as the flow turns northeast.

SATURDAY ... Frosty with isolated snow showers possible in east to northeast winds, temperatures steady around 1 or 2 C but some sharp frosts possible inland especially further west away from moderating influences of Irish Sea.

SUNDAY ... Sharp frosts, cold until late in the day when possibly milder in west at least, lows -5 to -2 C and highs 2 to 7 C.

MONDAY 8th ... Windy with sleet or wet snow turning to rain then back to snow or sleet again, winds S-SW 70-100 km/hr by late in the day, temperatures will be briefly near 10 C then turning much colder again as winds veer westerly with rapidly falling temperatures.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Several days of cold, windy weather with passing wintry showers for the rest of the second week of January, and the pattern looks set to keep repeating with occasional windy spells, brief rain and milder conditions followed by several days of colder and unsettled weather.

As I'm a bit late getting to this "tonight" (my time zone), I will just note that my local weather was once again bright but cold with highs near -4 C, and that intense cold remains locked in further east across most of Canada and the U.S., except for the southwestern states. A snowstorm is still predicted for Jan 3-5 on the east coast. We'll get back to looking at Australia tomorrow.

Apologies for being so off topic but a very happy new year to you, your family and everyone else you may know. You are the most thanked person on boards.ie (and probably the whole country) and your input here is so so sooooooo welcomed. Wishing you all the best in 2018.

M.T. Cranium

^^ Much appreciated, unlike the following events unfolding below ... ^^

Tuesday, 2 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for very strong wind gusts late afternoon into the evening hours from storm "Eleanor" in most southern and central counties, details may not be nailed down until just before this begins as it's a fast-developing frontal wave still quite a distance off to the west and in an early stage of development now. Forecast will give details but peak gusts could be 110 km/hr to 130 km/hr depending on how it intensifies. Look for an update around 3-4 p.m.

TODAY ... Morning rain should soon be moving off to the east, followed by some sunny breaks and moderate southwest winds 40-70 km/hr, rather mild with highs around 11 C. Heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms will move rapidly into all regions by early to mid afternoon, and winds are expected to increase to southwesterly 90 to 110 km/hr and possibly some local gusts to 130 km/hr which could produce tree damage or scattered power outages.

TONIGHT ... Very windy for the first part of the overnight period (southwest to west 90 to 130 km/hr) with a few squally showers, then winds easing somewhat after midnight with occasional light rain and some hail possible, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr. Lows 3 to 6 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Continued rather windy with occasional rain, some wintry showers possible in higher parts of north and west, highs 6 to 8 C for most, 3 to 6 C north.

THURSDAY ... Outbreaks of rain, possible strong winds at times (although some guidance keeps a lot of this just off the south coast until a final bout that will more than likely produce strong gusts), winds westerly at 40-60 km/hr with some intervals gusting closer to 100 km/hr. Morning lows 2 to 4 C and afternoon highs about 8 to 10 C, but turning sharply colder especially in Connacht and Ulster later afternoon.

FRIDAY ... Windy and much colder, mixed rain and snow possible, some accumulations of snow in parts of the north and east, and further west on hills. Morning lows -1 to +2 C and afternoon highs only 2 to 6 C. Winds becoming northeast 40-70 km/hr.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Very cold with sharp frosts and limited thawing during the daytime hours, some icy roads likely to remain slippery much of the days, and lows of -5 to -2 C, highs zero to +4 C. Northeast winds continuing and still some chance of isolated wintry showers, snow on hills, although mostly a dry pattern.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There is growing uncertainty past Sunday of this coming weekend about how long it will stay cold and dry, it still may break down briefly late Monday with a sleety frontal passage, or it may stay cold and dry if high pressure wins the battle with Atlantic fronts. The trend beyond the possible sleet event is cold in any case so most of the coming week could be much colder than we've been seeing for the past few weeks.

My local weather on New Year's Day was partly cloudy and cold, around -4 C for our high, with some clear intervals by evening, so we had a great view of the full moon (as of 0225h today in Irish time). It's a perigeean full moon meaning that tides will be unusually high even without storm surge issues but west coast locations can expect some local flooding at high tides today and tomorrow, especially if those tides coincide with the stronger westerly winds predicted.

The east coast of the U.S. is still clear, cold and dry but a storm is forming east of Florida that may impact various parts of the east by late Wednesday into Thursday, and eastern Canada Thursday into Friday, with a blizzard-like storm that may range from severe white-out conditions in parts of New England to persistent light snow further west in very cold northerly winds. Further west it remains bitterly cold, the high on New Years' Day in Chicago was -17 C with a low near -23 C. In parts of western Canada, readings have been into the -30s overnight and struggling to reach -25 C daytime.

Much of Australia is warm and dry today but there are a few storms near Sydney and more widespread tropical monsoon storms in the north.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE for Storm "Eleanor" __ Tuesday 2 January 2018 __ 4 p.m.
__________________________________________________________

Small but powerful Storm Eleanor appears ready to blast in to central counties within the next hour or two. The developing centre can be seen on radar just west of Newport and will track east inland from there. Ocean buoy data from around 49N 16W confirm that strong winds are already underway south of the most intense portion of this storm, while the M6 buoy was recently gusting to 52 knots but the pressure wave passed them several hours back. No data yet to represent the current intensity but going by model guidance some very strong westerly winds are likely just to the south of its track this evening.

Expect this to produce a swath of damaging wind gusts to 125 km/hr in exposed areas from Clare and Galway Bay across to Louth, Meath and Dublin, also some distance into east Ulster. However outside of that swath further to the south local gusts could also reach 120 km/hr, although I think it may be less concentrated there.

North of the track of this rather small "meso-scale" low, winds will remain fairly light until 2-3 hours after it passes then will become moderate northwest 60-100 km/hr backing to west later. Some locally heavy rainfalls will continue in west Ulster and north Connacht with eventual 20-30 mm totals and some minor flooding.

Expect this to ramp up very quickly if in the path outlined, with winds veering rapidly from current southerly to WSW at height of windstorm. Duration of strongest winds will be 3-4 hours then a gradual reduction overnight. Onset in Galway and Clare will likely be as soon as 5 p.m. and towards the east coast around 8 p.m.

It is possible that another update will be issued after 6:30 p.m.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 3 January, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for continued strong and possibly damaging wind gusts, today more widely distributed throughout the country, and probably not quite as strong in those parts of Connacht that were hit with very strong winds yesterday evening, but in the range of 110 to 120 km/hr for top gusts almost anywhere that's well exposed to a westerly wind. Coastal flooding very likely especially at high tides on the west coast. Some lingering damage from yesterday may not yet be cleared either, so drive with extreme caution. The word is that this continues to be storm Eleanor, although one distinct low spun off yesterday and is now in the North Sea, a second one is perhaps twin sister Edith making her way slowly past north Ulster towards Scotland. This one has a little less dynamic energy and is more of a steady state affair so that it may be a case of relentless strong winds eventually doing damage rather than sudden gusts,
so watch for further damage to trees or infrastructure at a rather unpredictable pace here and there.

TODAY ... Very windy with passing squally showers containing some hail and thunder, winds westerly 80 to 120 km/hr in exposed areas, easing slightly by late afternoon. Highs 7 to 10 C. Feeling quite cold especially in higher parts of the west.

TONIGHT ... Winds easing, some rain at times, becoming rather heavy near the south coast. Lows 3 to 6 C but with any clearing further north there could be slight frost in places, followed by isolated sleety showers, so there's some chance of icy roads developing in a few parts of the inland north by morning.

THURSDAY ... There is a chance of a renewed spell of strong winds near the southwest coasts as yet another low passes just along that coastal strip, but its stronger winds may stay out to sea. The rest of the country should escape another round of very strong winds but could have moderate gusts at times with the trend being a slow turning from west to northwest then eventually northerly winds sometimes in the range of 40 to 70 km/hr, other times less windy than that. Some outbreaks of sleety rain later in the day could produce snow on hills. Temperatures will start out close to 8 or 9 C and end up closer to 4 C by evening.

FRIDAY ... It will continue to turn colder and mixed rain and snow is likely over higher inland districts, with a sleety cold rain near some coasts. There will be some minor areas of low pressure swirling around an upper level low so conditions may vary considerably from region to region, with the south at risk of some sleet or snow from one low's northern flank, and the north getting some mixed wintry showers from a second low's western flank. You will be saying flanks very much or maybe something entirely different as these lows fail to take any cues to push off. Temperatures will be steady 3 to 5 C and could fall even lower in any periods of wintry showers.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy with bands of mixed wintry showers feeding into Leinster and north Connacht from the Irish Sea and Atlantic. Some wintry sunshine may develop between these zones, and snow should be heavier on hills but could fall down to sea level at times in the shower bands. Winds northeast 50 to 70 km/hr will add quite a chill to temperatures already well down into the range of -1 to +4 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking bitterly cold with severe frosts and limited daytime recovery, under mostly clear skies, with isolated wintry showers possible near east coast. Lows -6 to -2 C and highs -1 to +4 C. Monday may turn slightly milder in Munster as winds turn more to southeast. Otherwise, it will be more of the northeast winds with a Baltic feel.

TUESDAY could bring a mixed bag of sleet, snow and cold rain as fronts try to push this colder air back to the northeast, but run out of energy leading to a mixture of various kinds of precipitation, raw winds and temperatures not far from 3 or 4 C at best, except perhaps 7 to 9 C in west Munster.

The further outlook calls for more intervals of very cold weather for a few more days and it's really uncertain how long this cold spell might ultimately last, with no clear signs that the blocking will either break down or intensify, and the Atlantic getting plenty of energy from storms near North America, but these may end up circling around near Greenland rather than breaking through to Europe each time.

Meanwhile, my local weather was very cold again on Tuesday with a morning low of about -15 C and a high near -7 C, some sunshine despite patchy low cloud. The east coast of the U.S. and Canada are all bracing for the arrival of a very powerful blizzard late tonight and into Thursday. The storm is just now taking shape over Florida and is going to bring snow all the way from inland northern Florida to North Carolina, as well as the more typical areas for a nor'easter. This one threatens to drop to hurricane-like central pressures in the 940-950 mb range, and could drop up to 50 cms or more of wind-driven snow (New York City may be closer to 10-15 cm but Boston will get the full force as will most of New England, New Brunswick and other parts of eastern Canada. Bitter cold will be reinforced when this storm pulls down yet another slug of record cold from the high arctic.

The weather in most of Australia looks quite wonderful by comparison, with just a few storms near the north coast where very few people reside, so it's basically put another shrimp on the barbie and enjoy July, no they call it January, I'm still confused about Eleanor having two lives.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 4 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for very strong winds already in progress across parts of west Munster, spreading further east into central counties and eventually across to Dublin by this afternoon. Other parts of the south will also get quite windy but the system appears to be reorganizing so that the current strong gusts in Kerry and Cork may spread further north rather than heading east, before the eastward motion begins. Some gusts to 110 km/hr or higher are likely, isolated 130 km/hr possible, with scattered damage possible. This will be the last in this series of westerly wind storms and the next alert necessary may be for snowfall by Friday night.


TODAY ... Very windy at times this morning in west Munster, then from Clare east into the midlands and by afternoon into central Leinster. Westerly winds 80-120 km/hr may cause some scattered damage and disruption. A few showers but more persistent rain further north where it is not as windy, 5-15 mm likely there. Temperatures will remain steady around 8-11 C then fall off gradually later today as winds ease then turn more northerly.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, wintry showers possible, lows 1-3 C.

FRIDAY ... Outbreaks of rain, sleet or wet snow, some accumulations of snow possible on higher terrain, highs 4 to 6 C. Moderate northwest winds in some western and northern counties at times.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy with bands of wintry showers including some falls of snow in Leinster and north Connacht. More sunshine away from those bands, very cold, morning lows near -3 C and afternoon highs 2 to 6 C. Winds northeast 40 to 70 km/hr adding considerable chill.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are likely to be dry and very cold with some sunshine each day and sharp to severe frosts, icy roads will be likely especially secondary routes in rural areas. Morning lows -7 to -3 C and afternoon highs -1 to +4 C. Some intervals of light winds may promote ice fog, but later Monday a raw east to southeast wind will pick up to 40-60 km/hr.

MONDAY night into TUESDAY, the remnants of a powerful Atlantic storm will push towards Ireland but in a dying phase so that rain may not spread very far north or east of the Atlantic and south coasts, and could turn to sleet or snow further inland, as winds over most of the country become strong southeasterly. Temperatures are likely to remain quite cold (2-5 C) except in the milder southwest (7-10 C).

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for more rather cold and sometimes unsettled conditions but details at this point are rather uncertain. Much depends on the exact outcome of the developing superstorm off the east coast of the United States, if it heads a little more east than some guidance predicts, it may break through the cold block for a time, but if it heads more towards Greenland, it may reinforce that block.

My local weather on Wednesday was a welcome change, sunny and not as cold with mid-day temperatures around -1 C. Probably without 50 cms snow pack, we might have warmed up to around 5 C, but there was no melting (the sun is often blocked by local mountains except at mid-day so we don't get a lot of direct sunlight in mid-winter here). The east coast of the U.S. is now dealing with a full-blown winter hurricane, which is right now off the coast of North Carolina, heading for Cape Cod and the Gulf of Maine by tomorrow morning. Heavy snow is breaking out in strong winds all along the coast north to Long Island and blizzards will sweep into New England by afternoon with 150 km/hr wind gusts near Boston, as well as 20-40 cm snowfalls (could reach 60 cms further inland where not quite as windy).

In Australia, most of the southern half of the country is clear and very warm again, and much of Queensland and the Northern Territory are covered by thunderstorms, so it appears that the wet season is gradually developing in the north.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 5 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some parts of Leinster will have sunny intervals with just a chance of isolated showers later in the day, highs 6 to 8 C. Most of Ulster and Connacht will see outbreaks of rain that could become sleety on higher terrain, winds sometimes moderate westerly at first, then turning northerly to northeasterly later, as low pressure drops southward into Munster, which will start out cloudy with a few areas of patchy drizzle, then partly cloudy mid-day followed by outbreaks of light rain. For all these areas highs will be 5 to 7 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain may turn increasingly to sleet with wet snow possible on hills, in parts of Connacht and Munster, with lows of 1 to 3 C. Ulster and Leinster will be getting more into the colder northeasterly flow pushing against the low in the southwest, so they can expect mostly dry and partly cloudy conditions with possibly a few streamers developing of sleety showers, lows -2 to +2 C.

SATURDAY ... Rather windy and very cold, winds northeast 40-60 km/hr but increasing to easterly 50-80 km/hr in parts of the west. Some parts of west Munster may see sleet or wet snow for a time with later clearing. Parts of Leinster and north Connacht will have streamers of sleet, snow or hail showers feeding inland from nearby Irish Sea or Atlantic. Other locations may see longer intervals of sunshine, but everyone will be considerably colder than recent days with highs only 2 to 6 C.

SUNDAY ... Sharp to severe frost with lows -7 to -3 C, some persistent ice fog possible, then sunny but very cold during the day except where low cloud persists, highs -1 to +4 C. Less windy, and almost calm in some places.

MONDAY ... Continuing cold, increasing cloud during the day, and a raw east to southeast wind, 40-70 km/hr. Lows -6 to -2 C and highs 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY ... A rather uncertain forecast this far out, as a frontal system that is likely to be in a weakening phase runs up against the colder air, partly replacing it with somewhat milder Atlantic air from the south to southeast. Outbreaks of rain or sleet are likely with temperatures possibly as high as 8 C in west Munster and coastal Connacht, 4 to 6 C further east.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather cold with outbreaks of sleet or cold rain at times, snow on hills.

My local weather on Thursday was pleasant, higher cloud spread in above peak elevations and some sunny intervals continued, and highs reached about +1 C.

The big storm has come and gone from most of the eastern U.S., leaving big piles of wind-drifted snow from New York to Boston and into Maine. The low is currently in New Brunswick, Canada with the heavy snow continuing to move along with it on its northern flanks, and strong winds with sleet wrapping around its intense centre (recently measured at 950 mb). The east coast cities of the U.S. will see clearing and bitterly cold weather for today and tomorrow, then a slow warming trend to more normal January values (which for them are 6-9 C).

The settled summer weather pattern over most of Australia continues today with widespread monsoon rains affecting the northern third.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 6 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... For most, it will be a cold and partly cloudy day with moderate east winds of about 40-60 km/hr adding a chill to daytime highs of 5 to 8 C. In a few parts of south and east Leinster and west Munster, some mixed wintry showers are likely, snow mostly confined to higher elevations, but hail or sleet could fall lower down as well as cold rain showers, and a slight risk of thunder especially around Wicklow. Highs will also be in the same range (5 to 8 C) but temperatures could drop sharply near stronger showers. For the south and east Leinster showers, these will develop from streamers moving across the Irish Sea.

TONIGHT ... Any remnant wintry showers will die out in the evening hours, then it will become mostly clear and very cold with patchy ice fog possible by dawn. Lows will reach -7 to -3 C for most, but could be held up to about +1 C near east coast by onshore winds.

SUNDAY ... Lingering ice fog possible in valleys, otherwise wintry sunshine and very cold, highs zero to +5 C. Not very windy and calm at times inland.

MONDAY ... Another very cold morning with severe frosts, lows -7 to -2 C, ice fog patches, but then with winds increasing from the southeast to 30-50 km/hr, sun will be obscured by low cloud and temperatures will struggle up gradually to about 5 to 8 C with the milder readings in west Munster and near the south coast.

TUESDAY ... Overcast with sleet developing, probably a cold rain near sea level in south and west, some wet snow on hills. This mixed precipitation may take quite a while to reach the east, partly because it will evaporate into the dry air near the surface. Rather cold still with lows 1 to 4 C and highs 4 to 7 C for most, 7 to 10 C possible near southwest coast.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cold weather will continue all week, with a chance of a few mixed wintry showers on higher ground, and highs generally 5 to 8 C. Frosts will not be severe though. Another rather weak Atlantic frontal system will arrive later in the week with either a cold rain or sleet. Beyond that the pattern looks similar, quite often between 5 and 8 C with mixed wintry showers.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with light snow, about 2 cms, that changed to drizzle as temperatures rose above freezing to reach 3 C. It remains bitterly cold in eastern and central regions of North America where they are digging out of massive snow drifts in some places. There has not been much change for Australia where most are enjoying ideal summer weather, but a weak cold front is spreading some cloud onto the southeast coast.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 7 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Frosty except near southeast coast, some lingering ice fog possible in valleys, otherwise wintry sunshine and very cold, highs zero to +5 C. Not very windy and calm at times inland.

TONIGHT ... Clear at first, some increase in cloud later, so that frost may be more severe around midnight than towards dawn, lows -5 to -1 C, temperatures may rise somewhat after these lows are reached, to -3 to +2 C by morning.

MONDAY ... Another very cold morning with severe frosts in some parts of the central counties, lows -5 to -2 C, ice fog patches, but then with winds increasing from the southeast to 30-50 km/hr, sun will be obscured by low cloud and temperatures will struggle up gradually to about 5 to 8 C with the milder readings in west Munster and near the south coast.

TUESDAY ... Overcast with sleet or rain developing, turning to intermittent showers later in the day. Morning lows 1 to 4 C, afternoon highs 4 to 7 C north, 7 to 10 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, some mixed wintry showers developing, highs around 5 or 6 C.

THURSDAY ... Dry and cold, increasing cloud late in the day, after a frosty start, highs may reach 8 C by evening.

FRIDAY ... Windy with occasional rain, milder, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Gradually turning quite cold next weekend with mixed wintry showers returning, very cold by Sunday and Monday, with a risk of local snow accumulations.

My local weather on Saturday was foggy and milder with drizzle after some wet snow overnight, and highs reached 3 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 8 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Frosty for a while away from the milder south and east coasts and larger cities, watch for local black ice conditions and possibly a few patches of dense fog. Although the sun may try to make another decent appearance, cloud infiltrating from the south will tend to move in quite fast as an elevated fog or low cloud ceiling, and then it may be a case of obscured sunshine or just being able to make out the Sun's disc behind the thin cloud layer. The southeast breeze will pick up gradually and this may allow temperatures to climb slightly higher today, but still rather cold at 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, any clear intervals likely to be brief and restricted mainly to Ulster and north Leinster where lows could fall back to near freezing, otherwise lows about 2 to 5 C. Drizzle may develop towards morning in west Munster.

TUESDAY ... Becoming rather windy, especially near the west coast where a southerly wind of 50-90 km/hr will begin rather early in the day. Further east it will pick up more gradually to south-southeast 40-60 km/hr. Rain will follow becoming rather showery further east. It may remain cold enough in a few parts of the northeast to allow this rain to start out as sleet. About 10 mm of rain can be expected, but near 20 mm in west Connacht. Highs 8 to 11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, wintry showers at times, colder, lows 1-3 C and highs about 7 C at best.

THURSDAY ... Dry and rather cold, frosty to start, lows -3 to +1 C and highs 6 to 8 C with increasing cloud later in the day.

FRIDAY ... Windy with intervals of rain, southerly winds 50-80 km/hr, highs near 10.

SATURDAY ... Overcast, occasional rain perhaps turning to sleet later, temperatures dropping late in the day after being steady near 6 or 7 C.

SUNDAY 14th to TUESDAY 16th could be one of the colder intervals of the winter with a strong chance of lying snow, although large falls are not foreseen at this point, more like a widespread 1 to 3 cm event with snow perhaps coming and going in wintry sunshine between showers, highs only 3 to 6 C and slight frosts at night.

The pattern beyond that cold spell looks fairly cold too, with just the occasional slight warmup when frontal systems move through, with rain briefly, but several days of chilly weather likely between those, so overall, expecting this month to average a little below normal for January despite a few rather mild days at the start of the month.

My local weather brought an unwelcome light rain that softened up our snow while doing little to reduce the depth of the pack (about 35 cms), and highs reached 4 C. The extreme cold in the east is about to end with a mixed fall of sleet and freezing drizzle in places, then milder temperatures for the second half of this coming week. In places that have been well below freezing for two weeks, it will soar to 10-15 C by Thursday, which is bound to place strain on frozen pipes especially where there wasn't a lot of snow cover in parts of the Midwest, Mid Atlantic and southeastern states. Then they are back into quite a cold air mass by the weekend.

In Australia, while many places remain hot and dry, Sydney and parts of the east coast are being rocked by heavy thunderstorms.

M.T. Cranium

Just having some trouble posting ... no real changes to forecast ... if a moderator can find post reply 2055579971 my post is there (just won't show on page).

Okay, problem solved, see next post ...

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 9 January, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Becoming rather windy this morning, especially near the west coast where a southerly wind of 50-90 km/hr will begin rather early in the day. Further east it will pick up more gradually to south-southeast 40-60 km/hr. Rain will follow becoming rather showery further east. It may remain cold enough in a few parts of the northeast to allow this rain to start out as sleet. About 10 mm of rain can be expected, but near 20 mm in west Connacht and parts of the midlands. Highs 8 to 11 C south and west, 6 to 9 C east and north.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending, some clear intervals, slight frosts developing, lows -1 to +3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, wintry showers at times, colder, highs about 7 C. A more organized band of sleet or hill snow may develop in the inland south by evening.

THURSDAY ... Dry and rather cold, frosty to start, lows -3 to +1 C and highs 6 to 8 C with increasing cloud later in the day.

FRIDAY ... Windy with intervals of rain, southerly winds 50-80 km/hr, highs near 10.

SATURDAY ... Overcast, occasional rain perhaps turning to sleet later, temperatures dropping late in the day after being steady near 6 or 7 C.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY ... Somewhat colder with daily outbreaks of rain, sleet or wet snow, sometimes in gusty westerly winds, highs 4 to 7 C. Slight frosts in some inland counties.

OUTLOOK ... Turning even colder for the second half of next week with strong, gusty northwest winds and the risk of significant snowfalls in higher parts of the west.

My local weather was foggy with wet snow and some drizzle with highs near 2 C.

Now that I got this part posted, I did some research into Australian time zones. Western Australia is in the western Australian time zone (no surprise) and that's 8 hours ahead of Greenwich, Irish or z time however you like. Also they don't indulge in daylight savings time there. Then both South Australia and the Northern Terrritory are in the central Australian time zone, which is 9.5 hours ahead of all of the above. South Australia does employ daylight savings time so as you may read this at 0900h, it is 7:30 p.m. ACDT in Adelaide. And then the four eastern states plus the ACT (Canberra) are in the eastern time zone which is 10 hours ahead when standard time, and all but Queensland are currently on daylight savings time, so it's now 8 p.m. AEDT in Sydney and Melbourne but 7 p.m. AEST in Brisbane. Apparently both Queensland and Western Australia have had several referenda to determine whether to go on to daylight savings time, but it continues to be rejected by those voters.

And as for the weather down under (late) today, some heavy storms were showing up near Wollongong and Nowra south of Sydney but it remains hot and dry further north, and refreshingly cool to the south of that front (in Victoria and Tasmania). Now I wonder if this edit will post or if the Australian time zone censors will step in once again?