Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 02-03-2018 7:55pm

UPDATE __ Friday 2 March, 2018 __ 7 p.m.
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Snow mixed at times with sleet will continue much of the overnight period in Leinster, with some places getting a further 10 to 20 cms. It appears that a break developing in parts of east Munster may hold with just intermittent light snow but further west a more steady light to moderate snow could bring 5 to 15 cms additional accumulations.

Even in this short time range, guidance is not united on where decaying "Emma" will track, with some models suggesting an inland traverse by Saturday morning (Cork to south Clare), and others holding what's left of the low off the Kerry coast. I suspect that either way, warming will be limited to the outer coasts and snow could continue for part of Saturday in the southwest, especially over higher terrain. Also, central Leinster may see a resumption of some snow streamers, no guarantee on this but potential for 2 to 5 cm accumulations or mixtures of sleet, hail and coastal rain in the mix.

One good thing about a very slow warming trend is that melting will be gradual as well. Where more than 30 cms is on the ground, melting will generally lead to slush on well-travelled roads (that are not blocked by drifts) and pathways. Parking lots, especially those cleared for traffic, will be collecting slushy runoff (urban "ponding") and flat roofs may be dangerously stressed, would advise clearing them where possible and safe to do so. In areas with less snow, melting will proceed faster during the next four days and there may be some minor flooding in places. Areas that have severe drifts are going to be dealing with those for weeks, I would imagine.

The way it appears now, the colder air will moderate to about +1 to +4 C temperatures generally, falling to -3 C or lower at night where any clearing develops, otherwise staying about -1 C. This regime with light to moderate northeast winds prevailing will hold firm against a number of assaults by weak circulating lows following behind Emma and spreading sleety mixed precipitation at times into coastal south, east and central counties. The north may get a few intervals of mixed precipitation but will have longer dry spells. This will continue until possibly about a week from now when a stronger frontal zone will develop and there could be one final winter storm in this spell, with indications that a more normal March weather pattern would then develop mid-month. Timing this future storm is difficult with model suggestions in the range of five to ten days from now.

My own weather seems to be pleasantly mild and sunny, no resumption of the earlier power outage that I had during the morning forecast period.

M.T. Cranium · 03-03-2018 8:56am

Saturday, 3 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly overcast with some fog developing over heavier snow packs, light sleet or snow at times this morning in a few locations, followed by an interval of rain near the southeast coasts, making some progress inland and upslope but turning to sleet or snow over higher parts of the southeast. This may also make sporadic appearances further north and west although not likely to be much of a factor in Connacht or Ulster where occasional outbreaks of sleety light showers may continue. In general, somewhat milder with highs 4 to 7 C at low elevations, and 2 to 4 C over higher and more inland districts (-1 to 2 C on higher slopes). Snow melt will be gradual and mostly confined to coastal margins, and some urban areas, leading to some ponding of meltwater by afternoon and evening there. Winds generally lighter than recent days but occasionally moderate easterly in Leinster, and there could be one or two weak streamers setting up at times, bringing more of a mixed bag of precipitation types. Where safe and possible to do, clear snow off flat roof surfaces to avoid later problems.

TONIGHT ... Sleet or wet snow at times in the east may begin to deposit new snow inland and on higher ground, but generally slight accumulations. Foggy especially over higher terrain and snow packs. Rather cold in the north especially in any clearing spells, lows -5 to -2 there, otherwise -1 to +2 C.

SUNDAY ... The slow thaw will continue to gain momentum with a slight increase in temperatures to 5 to 8 C near sea level and 2 to 5 C inland and on some higher slopes. Snow melt while not dramatic will be steady and urban ponding issues will increase. Slush and standing water will be on the increase and some light rain or sleet at times will add to this. A few sunny breaks are possible over west and north.

OUTLOOK ... For most of the week, similar conditions to the weekend will continue with a slow but steady thaw gradually reducing the snow packs and isolating the remnants to the worst hit areas in central Leinster and higher ground generally. There will be occasional outbreaks of sleet, wet snow or light rain each day, and some icing at night with any clear intervals. Lows will be in the range of -3 to +3 C and highs in the range of 4 to 9 C. A heavier rainfall could develop later in the week although some guidance takes that disturbance far enough east that it might lead to a northerly return of cold air for a day or two and snowfall potential, so that part of the forecast remains quite uncertain (around Thursday-Friday). There is no guarantee that the cold air will stay away permanently once flushed out this weekend, but the pattern appears to be slowly changing to a cool maritime southwesterly flow with the colder air now confined to northern latitudes and the western half of the Atlantic (upper level steering features have moved west, or undergone "retrogression.")

My local weather on Friday was overcast with some light rain by afternoon, and the high reached 5 C. We have the slow thaw here as well, plenty of slush appearing near snowbanks. In New England, a rather intense low moved off the coast creating a narrow strip of heavy snow that dropped a foot in upstate New York and parts of Vermont, but just a fast transition to cold windy weather on the coast. The retrogression I mentioned has put a strong upper level high (the only kind they can get due to the ice cap) in Greenland and this is driving the jet stream further south in eastern North America now. The beast from the east has become the beast from the north in eastern Canada.

M.T. Cranium · 04-03-2018 9:17am

Sunday, 4 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

This isn't strictly weather related but possibly a bigger risk than flooding right now would be roof collapses in areas with heavy snow packs and rain falling today, thinking in particular of Wexford and perhaps south Wicklow. Would advise either clearing or at least monitoring for safety any flat roofs on larger commercial structures.

TODAY ... Overcast with widespread fog or mist especially dense over snow packs. Some light rain may become moderate at times near southeast coast (10 to 20 mm could fall) and this could turn to sleet or wet snow on higher terrain. Melting will vary from slow to moderately fast depending on rain and actual temperatures, but the biggest result is likely to be extensive slush and ponding, some flooding, and a lot of low-level moisture (hence the fog). Light to moderate east winds will continue, highs 3 to 6 C.

TONIGHT ... Foggy, drizzle or freezing drizzle mixed with snow grains in some northern areas, lows -1 to +2 C.

MONDAY ... Foggy, overcast when visibility improves, except for some sunny breaks in north more likely over bare ground, isolated sleety showers, highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... This type of weather will continue all week with little variation. There are some indications that Thursday may be slightly colder with frostier overnight lows as a slight ridge develops between weak lows, but the main result of that might be more persistent dense fog. Highs each day around 7 to 9 C at low elevations, 4 to 7 C over remnant snow fields inland. Expect about 75% of the heavier snow to be gone by end of the week, except on very high terrain.

There are mixed signals about a stormy interval Friday to Sunday, most of the guidance has converged on a rather mild solution to that issue so that there could be some heavier rain and highs near 10 C by then. Some guidance shows a cold spell developing early the following week and lasting about three days but even that is followed by milder weather again.

There is probably a slight chance of all guidance being wrong about longer term evolution and seeing a return to harsher wintry conditions, but so far not much sign of that on the more reliable models.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast and chilly with light snow by afternoon, highs of 2 C.

M.T. Cranium · 05-03-2018 7:58am

Monday, 5 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Foggy and rather cold with scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, possibly wet snow at times on higher terrain, only small amounts expected. Some continued melting of snow but at a generally moderate pace. Highs 4 to 7 C with light winds. The fog may lift in some places and the afternoon could bring a few sunny breaks with the isolated sleety showers mostly over northern and central inland counties. Slush and increased amounts of runoff leading to ponding in urban areas and flooding of a few poorly drained areas.

TONIGHT ... Dense fog, patchy ice or frost, lows -3 to +2 C.

TUESDAY ... Fog slowly lifting, variable cloud with scattered wintry showers, some hail possible, snow on hills especially in north. More likely to be rain near coasts and in the south, amounts 5 to 10 mm in some parts. Highs 5 to 8 C. Widespread slush and ponding of meltwater is likely.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, wintry showers, cold, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 5 to 8 C. The thaw will continue at an even slower pace.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY may be one or two degrees colder again with more snow than rain in the mixture of wintry showers, but no heavy falls are expected, 1 to 3 cm at worst, and that rather patchy. Lows -4 to zero C and highs 3 to 7 C each day. This may halt the last phases of the thaw in some cases.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The most likely scenario is for a cloudy but fairly dry start to the weekend with rain or snow moving in by Saturday night into Sunday. It may remain cold enough for most of this precipitation to be snow, but some guidance gives more of a regional mix with southeast in rain, central, west and north in sleet or snow. We will be watching this closely and expect a bit better model consensus soon. Highs could be held down to 3 to 6 C, possibly even colder, but the milder solutions would allow for 8 to 10 C in the southeast.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Cold for several days past next weekend, then a return to more normal March weather is expected around or just after the 17th.

My local weather on Sunday was (umm, just realized I never went out) well, overcast. Probably about 3 C.

M.T. Cranium · 06-03-2018 8:21am

Tuesday, 6 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Fog slowly lifting, variable cloud with scattered wintry showers, some hail possible, snow on hills especially in north. More likely to be rain near coasts and in the south, amounts 5 to 10 mm in some parts. Highs 5 to 8 C. Widespread slush and ponding of meltwater is likely in Leinster and Munster from remaining snow, and fog is more likely there too.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, cold, some frost and ice developing. Lows -3 to +2 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, wintry showers, cold, lows -3 to +2 C and highs 5 to 8 C. The thaw will continue at an even slower pace.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, wintry showers, cold, lows -4 to +1 C and highs 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, not quite as cold, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 6 to 9 C. Increasing cloud in south, rain by evening.

SATURDAY ... Occasional rain possible, slight risk of strong winds developing in south, highs 8 to 10 C. Colder further north with mixed sleety precipitation or a bit of snow possible, highs 3 to 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy or windy, rather cold, sleety mixed precipitation likely, some accumulations of snow on hills possibly, highs near 5 C. Winds will turn from east to northeast early in the day to northerly then northwesterly 50 to 80 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Quite cold for much of the following week, and possibly a few snow showers in north to northwest winds, but also some wintry sunshine. Later in the week there may be a fairly significant storm which would bring a risk of sleet or snow, but details on that are hazy at best. It could be Friday or so before we have much clarity on this possible event which is currently timed for about Thursday 15th.

My local weather on Monday (I did at least go out this time) was overcast with a bit of weak sunshine at times, and highs near 4 C. We are looking at a slow warming trend here as the cold air in the eastern parts of North America intensifies, creating a fairly large snowstorm for the Great Lakes and northeast states in coming days. This is actually related to last week's weather events in Europe as the blocking high moved west and overshot Greenland to form strong high pressure around Hudson Bay. This is pushing the jet stream well to the south of where it was last week, down around Florida and the Carolinas.

M.T. Cranium · 07-03-2018 8:33am

Wednesday, 7 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some morning sunshine with wintry showers advancing slowly from northwestern coastal counties into central regions, longer spells of sunshine for Munster and parts of Leinster, still a little low cloud or fog possible where snow is melting, and rather cold with highs 5 to 8 C. The thaw will continue at an even slower pace.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, isolated wintry showers, cold. Lows -4 to +1 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, wintry showers, cold, lows -4 to +1 C and highs 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, not quite as cold, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 6 to 9 C. Increasing cloud in south, rain by evening.

SATURDAY ... Occasional rain will become heavy at times during the early morning across Munster and south Leinster, more rapid snow melt will lead to flooding problems as 15 to 30 mm is expected, combined with the runoff from melting snow. Moderate southeast winds about 50 to 80 km/hr at times. This rain may begin as sleet or wet snow in higher parts of the north before turning gradually to rain later in the day. Highs near 10 C south, and 5 to 7 C north.

SUNDAY ... Breezy or windy, the colder trend expected earlier seems to have faded away for the time being, not too late for that to reverse one more time, but for now it looks likely to remain a little milder at 8 to 10 C with occasional showers. Further snow melt and ongoing flooding issues likely.

OUTLOOK ... All we can really say about the following week is that it appears very likely to be unsettled with frequent intervals of rain that could in some cases mix with snow on hills, and very windy at times also. The average temperature will remain several degrees below mid-March averages (7 to 10 C instead of 10 to 13 C). As the guidance keeps changing on timing and details, there seems little point in trying to distinguish among the days next week at this early stage, just expect a fairly frequent passage of rain or sleet-producing fronts and strong winds from a variety of directions as low pressure systems seem to be taking dead aim on Ireland and Britain all week. There is still a chance of a significantly colder turn for a few days but as guidance has this in different time slots, can't really nail down which days, would guess towards the end of the week.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy, calm and mild. It was so calm in fact that the local lake was providing perfect reflections of the mountains. The high reached 7 C and we are slowly losing our snow pack in the valleys, not much melting yet in the local hills. Meanwhile, a fairly heavy snowstorm is brewing near the Mid-Atlantic states heading northeast to give New York City and inland parts of New York, New England, also parts of PA and NJ, a snowfall of 10 to 30 cms. This storm hasn't quite formed as of now, a weaker system is dying out over the Great Lakes region and rain is spreading north from the Carolinas. But it should turn to heavy snow soon around Baltimore after largely avoiding Washington D.C. (not a bad idea in general, I'm thinking).

M.T. Cranium · 08-03-2018 8:31am

Thursday, 8 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated wintry showers mainly in northern counties, some morning frost and black ice conditions in central counties, staying rather cold with highs 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, increasing cloud in south, cold with frost and icy stretches of roads in particular near daytime melting snow packs, foggy in places, lows -3 to +2 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain developing across the south, moderate east to southeast winds, highs near 10 C south, 5 C north where rain could begin as sleet during the late afternoon or evening. The pace of melting will pick up with potential for some significant flooding. Becoming rather windy (southeast 50 to 80 km/hr) by evening and overnight.

SATURDAY ... Rain slowly clearing to north, morning lows 4 to 7 C and afternoon highs 8 to 11 C. Spot flooding will continue near melting snow packs. Southeast winds 40 to 70 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Rain or drizzle at times, turning to sleet or wet snow over higher terrain, as winds turn more to northeast 30 to 50 km/hr. Lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY are looking somewhat unsettled but with only light rain or sleet, highs around 8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for rain at times, cool and turning colder near the end of next week and perhaps beyond that, possibly a few rather wintry days with northerly winds developing, so far nothing too severe is indicated but chilly for mid-March, highs only 5 or 6 C and frosts likely.

My local weather was very pleasant with sunshine and highs near 4 C. Snow is evaporating faster than it's melting but we still have a solid cover of 15 to 20 cm and large piles yet to melt. And there's a bit more snow on the way here. The storm in the northeast U.S. meanwhile turned out quite complicated with zones of heavy snowfall and places that got a lot less than they expected, but generally the coast had less than 5 cm and inland 10 to 30 cm with local 40 to 50 cm accumulations. This is all heading for Maine and eastern Canada later today and the larger cities will gradually clear out with strong west to northwest winds developing.

M.T. Cranium · 09-03-2018 8:20am

Friday, 9 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Increasing cloud, rain developing across the south, moderate east to southeast winds, highs near 10 C south, 5 C north where rain could begin as sleet during the late afternoon or evening. The pace of melting will pick up with potential for some significant flooding especially in parts of south Leinster. Becoming rather windy (southeast 50 to 80 km/hr) by evening and overnight.

TONIGHT ... Windy and mild with rain, 10 to 30 mm expected in total. Winds southeast 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows 4 to 7 C.

SATURDAY ... Rain slowly clearing to north, morning lows 4 to 7 C and afternoon highs 8 to 11 C. Spot flooding will continue near melting snow packs. Southeast winds 40 to 70 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Rain or drizzle at times, turning to sleet or wet snow over higher terrain, as winds turn more to northeast 30 to 50 km/hr. Lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud with some decent sunny breaks and not much further rainfall, highs near 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain from early morning may turn heavy, 20 to 40 mm possible. Highs 9 to 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... More unsettled weather for several days, temperatures near average for mid-March, then models begin to suggest the approach of colder air again although so far they are not bringing it all the way to Ireland (it tends to stall out near Scotland but higher pressure builds over northern Europe in about ten days' time.) So we'll have to watch this for any potential to bring a small return of wintry weather, not that definite it could even happen yet.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with 5 cms of snow in the morning, which then turned to drizzly light rain for the afternoon and back to snow overnight. We're expecting quite a warming trend here as the rush of wintry patterns to the west has forced the Pacific to adopt a defensive posture in the form of a swelling ridge (it can't be cold everywhere at once). Some parts of B.C. will be into the 15-17 C range by early next week, here about 10 C possibly. The eastern North American storm is now dying out over northern Maine and New Brunswick but may make a small loop and move on towards Newfoundland. Another potential snowfall event is shaping up for Sunday night around the Mid-Atlantic states, in between the two systems will be cool and dry weather not exceptionally cold for mid-March, highs 2 to 5 C.

M.T. Cranium · 10-03-2018 8:15am

Saturday, 10 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Occasional rain and rather mild, southeast winds 40 to 60 km/hr, about 10 mm further rainfall likely, some spot flooding will develop as snow melt rates increase and the melting moves higher up into snow-covered hilly areas. Highs 11 to 13 C south, 8 to 10 C central. There could be some partial clearing from the south by afternoon but showers are likely to continue all day in the north.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, fog patches, chilly with lows 1 to 4 C, slight ground frost likely inland.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, some outbreaks of rain may be sleety over higher terrain by afternoon, heavier falls in the southeast than most other locations, some west coast and north Leinster districts could remain dry. Moderate east to northeast winds developing and highs 7 to 10 deg C.

MONDAY ... Sleety rain continuing in the southeast for part of the morning, slow clearing trend elsewhere with morning frosts inland north and west, sunny breaks by afternoon, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

TUESDAY ... Rather cold to start, frosts likely, then cloudy with rain spreading in from southwest during afternoon or evening, turning heavier overnight. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and milder with rain, heavy at times, 10 to 30 mm potential. Highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are likely to bring further rain with southeast winds as a low stalls off to the southwest, highs will be near 10 C. Eventually, colder air may attempt to move into the void created by all these looping and stalling low pressure systems, but this next outbreak looks a lot less powerful than the late February blast, and the results in Ireland may be just a slight fall in temperature and mixed rain and snow near frontal boundaries in the southeast, but it still bears watching in case we get a stronger signal. If the cold air does arrive it may quickly be absorbed into a new Atlantic based high that would lead to continued frosty nights but not as cold days.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy to start, but slow clearing allowed the temperatures to reach 5 C, and we're expecting out first really mild spring weather this weekend with a chance of reaching 10 C (will be the first time here, the coast has seen several days that mild already). A weak low in Texas is giving all the models a challenge for Sunday-Monday as it threatens to develop near the Carolina coastline and could bring snow to some parts of Virginia then into New England. Chances of this snow reaching NYC seem slight, at least in anything greater than a few flurries, but for Washington and Boston it looks more like a 50-50 proposition (for Monday into Tuesday).

M.T. Cranium · 11-03-2018 8:39am

Sunday, 11 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some outbreaks of light rain will move into west Munster and up into Connacht, while parts of Ulster and Leinster will enjoy a few sunny intervals, then increasing cloud there followed by rain moving up from the south this afternoon and evening. Most of these outbreaks will produce 5 mm or less today, sleety on higher ground but highs down around sea level will be 8 to 11 C. Light, occasionally moderate, east to northeast winds backing to northerly this evening.

TONIGHT ... Rain will continue most of the night in the eastern counties with lows near 7 C, and some occasional drizzle will come and go further west too, with lows dropping to a rather chilly 3 or 4 C. About 10 to 20 mm of rain could fall in Leinster.

MONDAY ... Rain tapering to drizzle and fog in the east, foggy or misty to start the day in the west with slow clearing by late afternoon, highs generally 6 to 9 C, feeling quite cool in moderate northwesterly backing to westerly winds.

TUESDAY ... A cold and dry start for most, frost likely in central, eastern and northern counties, lows -4 to -1 C there, closer to +2 C in the south and west. Then increasing cloud with outbreaks of rain and strong southeast winds developing by evening, highs 6 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy with occasional rain, milder, highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... There are now two competing outlooks on the table from the leading models. The European model keeps things mild and unsettled right into the third week of March with the southwesterly flow increasing its hold, frequent rain and highs near 12 C. The GFS (American) model with some support from other guidance continues to show very cold air pushing west and arriving in Ireland by next weekend. At worst, this won't be quite as severe an outbreak as the previous one, but even so, if it happens as shown, some snow is likely by about the 18th to 20th, and sharp to severe frosts. Which outlook is correct? I wish I could tell you but it seems to be a coin toss at this point.

My local weather was fabulous on Saturday, we've had such a cloudy winter that a day like this lifts the spirits. It was not overly mild at 4 C but the March sun felt a bit warmer than that -- and such low relative humidity that our snow is evaporating rather than melting (still plenty of it left on the ground, and the mountains are dazzling white with their two-metre snow cover near summit levels). A complex storm is forming today in the southeastern U.S. and exact tracks and snowfall prospects are yet to be nailed down, Washington D.C. and New York City are on the outer edges and eastern New England looks a bit more likely (by Monday night or Tuesday), Nova Scotia is in the firing line for a very powerful winter storm by Tuesday. The two lows involved are in Tennessee and east of Florida now, but most of the precipitation so far has been rainfall from thunderstorms as cold air has not quite engaged with this system yet (it should begin to do so tonight).

Not a weather note, but useful to know if you're travelling, North America adopts daylight saving time earlier (this weekend in fact) so after I post this the clocks here go forward one hour. I guess you'll be doing this in a week or two.

M.T. Cranium · 12-03-2018 8:12am

Monday, 12 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some further outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, mostly cloudy otherwise but slowly clearing by afternoon in western counties, highs about 7 to 9 C east, 8 to 11 C west.

TONIGHT ... Clear except for some cloud near south and west coasts, cold with frost widespread, lows -4 to +1 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals east and north, increasing cloud south and west, outbreaks of rain by evening in the southwest, with a strengthening southeast wind 40 to 70 km/hr. Overnight this wind will increase further to 80 to 110 km/hr with heavy rain advancing east.

WEDNESDAY ... Very windy with rain at times, winds southeast 80 to 110 km/hr, temperatures steady near 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Still quite windy, not as wet with some breaks in the cloud at times, showery intervals, winds southeast 40 to 70 km/hr and temperatures steady near 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, east winds 30 to 50 km/hr, turning somewhat colder with highs near 7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Guidance is still not united on the prospects for colder weather by next weekend or early the following week, and some global models have switched sides in this debate, now the European model shows a very cold outbreak with heavy snowfall potential, while the GFS (American) model which had the coldest look yesterday keeps the milder trend going on today's morning run -- and some other models are in between these extremes, so we are still just stuck in "wait and see" mode but be aware that there is that potential for a renewed wintry spell of weather. It wouldn't hurt to take a few precautions if you can afford to do so, but I can't offer the same sort of week-in-advance heads up that was possible with that stronger signal on display in late February. If it does turn very cold, expect it by Sunday 18th and Monday 19th by the looks of the guidance.

My local weather continued clear and reasonably mild in the daytime although the nights are quite cold under this sprawling high over the western regions of Canada. It was about 5 C for a high and the snow continues to shrink down through evaporation mostly. I am not a skier but they say the conditions in the alpine are stupendous. A big snowstorm is brewing for New England by tonight and Tuesday, it appears likely to bypass the mid-Atlantic states with just a dusting there, and NYC will get perhaps 10 cm but Boston could see 50 cm with strong winds. This won't arrive until around midnight in the northeast. The low responsible is currently off the coast of Georgia moving northeast and all of its precipitation on land so far has been rain or sleet except for a bit of light snow in the Ohio valley. It hasn't really engaged the cold air sitting over the inland northeast yet, when it does that later today, it will deepen rapidly off Cape Hatteras and head for Nova Scotia. The exact future of this storm has a part to play in the chances for cold air to head west as far as Ireland, if the models change the track of this low it may change the future course of the low expected off southwestern Ireland mid-week (responsible for the rain and wind in the forecast this morning) and keep that closer, the cold air would have to push that back to the west or south to get into Ireland later in the forecast period. So it's complicated.

M.T. Cranium · 13-03-2018 8:56am

Tuesday, 13 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for locally heavy rainfalls in south and west tonight and tomorrow, 20 to 40 mm possible, with spot flooding as a result. ... ADVANCE ALERT for a resumption of severe cold and localized snowfalls this coming weekend into early next week. Details in the forecast.

TODAY ... Some sunny breaks at first, followed by a gradual increase in cloud and rain by evening at least in south and west, winds light for the morning then slowly increasing to southeast 30-50 km/hr by late afternoon. Highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain may become heavy at times in south and west, 10 to 30 mm overnight, spot flooding by morning. Not as wet further east or north but some intervals of light rain. Becoming very windy in the southwest by morning, winds southeasterly 70 to 110 km/hr. These stronger winds will be less blustery elsewhere, reaching 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows of 7 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and mild with further outbreaks of rain (10 mm on average), highs 10-12 C, winds southeasterly 50 to 80 km/hr except 70 to 110 km/hr near south coast and in parts of Atlantic coastal counties.

THURSDAY ... Heavier rain will ease but there will still be a few light showers and winds will also diminish somewhat while remaining southeasterly possibly backing a little to east-southeast 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows 3 to 6 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, largely dry except for some remnant showers in north-central counties, colder with easterly winds developing, reaching 40 to 60 km/hr by afternoon, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 6 to 8 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... There is now wide support in the guidance for the colder spell discussed the past few days, so expect temperatures to drop sharply during the day on Saturday and remain very cold Sunday and Monday at least, with some outbreaks of snow likely in Leinster and possible in south Munster as well. It's rather early to speculate on amounts but I don't foresee quite the depths we saw earlier this month, perhaps some places might get more than 10 cms and as the set-up is similar but less intense, we can expect snow in roughly the same places as the last time, only not extending as far west because of weaker production rates over the Irish Sea (in other words, these streamers should die out somewhere short of Galway this time, but no guarantee on that). There could be a heavier snowfall event in the south than some people saw last time, depending on location. Some parts of the west and north may largely escape the snow. Night temperatures will vary from near -1 C in cloud and snowfall to -7 C during colder clear spells in west and north. Daytime readings will be about 2 to 4 C at best and could be held lower than that in any outbreaks of snow. Winds will average easterly 50 to 70 km/hr adding quite a chill. The same or worse conditions will likely affect Britain during the same period.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The chances of snow will diminish by Monday and the first half of the week is likely to be dry and cold with sunny intervals each day and very sharp frosts (lows -6 to -9 C are possible). Highs will struggle to get much higher than 2 C. Later in the week it may moderate considerably as southerly winds develop, highs may be back closer to normal values (10-12 C) by Thursday of next week.

So, all things considered, this next cold spell (which we should qualify as being about 80% likely now) is probably not going to have quite the severity of the last one, but will still be stronger than those of many (recent) past winters. It may cause some disruption but we hope not to the extent of the last spell especially in terms of snowfall, on the other hand with a clear cold spell at the end, we may see lower temperatures this time.

My local weather has been pretty much like that for several days, clear and quite cold at night, warming up to tolerable daytime readings that feel quite warm because there's very little wind, and all the reflection of sunshine off remaining snow. Monday's high was about 6 C after a morning low close to -7 C. We are expecting somewhat warmer temperatures today as they had near the coast on Monday (15-20 C there). Meanwhile, a heavy snowstorm is hitting New England today with New York City likely on the outer edges (5-15 cm for them), Boston could see as much as 40 or even 50 cms of snow and strong northeast winds. If travelling, expect flight delays to NYC and cancellations for Boston, some slower service in general as airlines adjust, but no other large cities are likely to be affected directly. There's no uncertainty about the Boston situation because apparently Logan Airport is already closed and all flights were cancelled before the storm hit.

M.T. Cranium · 13-03-2018 8:56am

Tuesday, 13 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for locally heavy rainfalls in south and west tonight and tomorrow, 20 to 40 mm possible, with spot flooding as a result. ... ADVANCE ALERT for a resumption of severe cold and localized snowfalls this coming weekend into early next week. Details in the forecast.

TODAY ... Some sunny breaks at first, followed by a gradual increase in cloud and rain by evening at least in south and west, winds light for the morning then slowly increasing to southeast 30-50 km/hr by late afternoon. Highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain may become heavy at times in south and west, 10 to 30 mm overnight, spot flooding by morning. Not as wet further east or north but some intervals of light rain. Becoming very windy in the southwest by morning, winds southeasterly 70 to 110 km/hr. These stronger winds will be less blustery elsewhere, reaching 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows of 7 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and mild with further outbreaks of rain (10 mm on average), highs 10-12 C, winds southeasterly 50 to 80 km/hr except 70 to 110 km/hr near south coast and in parts of Atlantic coastal counties.

THURSDAY ... Heavier rain will ease but there will still be a few light showers and winds will also diminish somewhat while remaining southeasterly possibly backing a little to east-southeast 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows 3 to 6 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, largely dry except for some remnant showers in north-central counties, colder with easterly winds developing, reaching 40 to 60 km/hr by afternoon, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 6 to 8 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... There is now wide support in the guidance for the colder spell discussed the past few days, so expect temperatures to drop sharply during the day on Saturday and remain very cold Sunday and Monday at least, with some outbreaks of snow likely in Leinster and possible in south Munster as well. It's rather early to speculate on amounts but I don't foresee quite the depths we saw earlier this month, perhaps some places might get more than 10 cms and as the set-up is similar but less intense, we can expect snow in roughly the same places as the last time, only not extending as far west because of weaker production rates over the Irish Sea (in other words, these streamers should die out somewhere short of Galway this time, but no guarantee on that). There could be a heavier snowfall event in the south than some people saw last time, depending on location. Some parts of the west and north may largely escape the snow. Night temperatures will vary from near -1 C in cloud and snowfall to -7 C during colder clear spells in west and north. Daytime readings will be about 2 to 4 C at best and could be held lower than that in any outbreaks of snow. Winds will average easterly 50 to 70 km/hr adding quite a chill. The same or worse conditions will likely affect Britain during the same period.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The chances of snow will diminish by Monday and the first half of the week is likely to be dry and cold with sunny intervals each day and very sharp frosts (lows -6 to -9 C are possible). Highs will struggle to get much higher than 2 C. Later in the week it may moderate considerably as southerly winds develop, highs may be back closer to normal values (10-12 C) by Thursday of next week.

So, all things considered, this next cold spell (which we should qualify as being about 80% likely now) is probably not going to have quite the severity of the last one, but will still be stronger than those of many (recent) past winters. It may cause some disruption but we hope not to the extent of the last spell especially in terms of snowfall, on the other hand with a clear cold spell at the end, we may see lower temperatures this time.

My local weather has been pretty much like that for several days, clear and quite cold at night, warming up to tolerable daytime readings that feel quite warm because there's very little wind, and all the reflection of sunshine off remaining snow. Monday's high was about 6 C after a morning low close to -7 C. We are expecting somewhat warmer temperatures today as they had near the coast on Monday (15-20 C there). Meanwhile, a heavy snowstorm is hitting New England today with New York City likely on the outer edges (5-15 cm for them), Boston could see as much as 40 or even 50 cms of snow and strong northeast winds. If travelling, expect flight delays to NYC and cancellations for Boston, some slower service in general as airlines adjust, but no other large cities are likely to be affected directly. There's no uncertainty about the Boston situation because apparently Logan Airport is already closed and all flights were cancelled before the storm hit.

M.T. Cranium · 14-03-2018 7:52am

Wednesday, 14 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfalls persisting today and part of tonight, a further 30 or 40 mm is possible especially in south and west, spot flooding is likely as a result. ... ADVANCE ALERT for a cold spell setting in around Saturday and lasting several days, the risk of snow has thankfully diminished somewhat to mostly light and widely scattered snow flurries but there is still a slight risk of heavier amounts in the southeast.

TODAY ... Windy and mild with further outbreaks of rain (10 to 30 mm on average), highs 10-12 C, winds southeasterly 50 to 80 km/hr except 70 to 110 km/hr near south coast and in parts of Atlantic coastal counties. Rain will be heaviest in Munster and south/west Connacht, amounts of 5 to 15 mm will be more typical in Leinster and Ulster into north/east Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Occasional rain will continue (5 to 10 mm further accumulations), southeast winds will moderate somewhat (40-70 km/hr) with lows near 5 or 6 C.

THURSDAY ... Heavier rain will ease but there will still be a few light showers and winds will also diminish somewhat while remaining southeasterly possibly backing a little to east-southeast 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows 3 to 6 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, some remnant showers and fog, turning colder with easterly winds developing, reaching 40 to 60 km/hr by afternoon, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 6 to 8 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, cold with moderate east winds 40-60 km/hr. Some outbreaks of light snow or sleet will be mostly confined to higher ground in southeast but mixed wintry showers could hit almost anywhere, small accumulations are expected at this point. Morning lows about -1 C and afternoon highs near 6 C. More sunshine is likely in north and west then a sharp frost will develop soon after sunset.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, very cold, morning lows -7 to -3 C and afternoon highs 2 to 6 C. Some isolated wintry showers with snow on hills in south Leinster, east Munster. There is still some chance of this being a more significant snow event but at this point guidance has shifted mainly to the isolated snow shower outcome.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Several days of crisp, often sunny days and clear very cold nights early next week, should at least be good for drying the ground, and despite a cold east to southeast breeze, daytime temperatures not too bad especially for the west (in the range of 5 to 9 C) while overnight lows remain -6 to -2 C. This spell should moderate further by late in the week to temperatures above 10 C again but cloud and rain are also likely to return in a southwesterly flow at that time.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with extensive high cloud, and after a chilly start it warmed up to near 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 15-03-2018 8:05am

Thursday, 15 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for severe cold and an increasing risk of heavy snowfalls at least for Leinster and midlands, south coast, setting in during the day Saturday and with the greatest risk of snow Sunday into early Monday. Models have shifted back overnight to a greater risk of significant snowfalls in the range of 10 to 30 cm for central and south Leinster, 5 to 15 cm for midlands and south coast. The whole country will turn very cold over the weekend and away from the snowfall zone nights will be as cold as -7 C with some chance of lower temperatures later in the spell if skies clear over or near snow-covered terrain. I still don't think this will be as severe as the previous spell for snowfall or major disruption, but still a very significant potential for some level of disruption, unless the guidance does one final turn towards a less severe outcome (and time is running out on that possibility).

TODAY will see the last of the rain in the east more confined to north Leinster and east Ulster, then as that system dies out, scattered heavy showers will develop in the still rather mild southeast flow, so after brief brighter intervals some showers or even thundershowers may develop in parts of Munster and these would likely drift northwest into south Connacht by afternoon. Highs 10 to 13 C and winds southeasterly 40 to 60 km/hr at times.

TONIGHT will be foggy in many areas with drizzle or light rain developing, east winds 30 to 50 km/hr and lows near 4 C.

FRIDAY will bring outbreaks of light rain (5-10 mm) and it may stay rather misty or foggy especially near higher ground in the north, as slightly colder air seeps in on moderate east winds, allowing highs to recover only to about 8 to 10 C.

SATURDAY (St. Patrick's Day) will turn quite windy and much colder with passing showers of sleet or wet snow mingled with sunny intervals, in easterly winds of 50 to 70 km/hr. Morning temperatures of 1 to 3 C will likely be close to the afternoon highs as temperatures will not make much upward progress due to the arrival of arctic air from Scandinavia. Highs of 5 to 7 C may be achieved in west Munster and coastal Connacht. For most, especially in Leinster, the wind chills will be significant (making it feel like -1 C).

SUNDAY is where some uncertainty remains, we can say with some confidence that it will be very cold with lows -7 to -2 C and highs 1 to 4 C and windy (east to northeast 50 to 80 km/hr) but the risk of snow is now fairly significant and the most likely areas to see 10 to 30 cms of snow potentially would be central and south Leinster with 5 to 15 cms the most likely range for parts of the midlands and south coast. This is still not "carved in stone" and I am thinking 80% chance of some snow, 60% chance of more than 10 cm in some places (away from high ground where it's not disruptive). But the guidance could change again. Regardless, there should be some sunny breaks away from the snow streamers in parts of west Ulster and Connacht. The wind chill could be quite severe too at about -8 C at times.

MONDAY some of this snow may linger closer to the coasts before dying out, as sunshine will become more dominant, but it will stay very cold after lows in the range of -8 to -4 C. Highs will be held down to near freezing (0 C) over snow cover and 2 to 5 C elsewhere. Winds will remain rather brisk northeast 40 to 60 km/hr dying out slowly by evening.

TUESDAY could bring an exceptionally cold start as clear skies and light winds allow for strong cooling especially near any snow packs that might develop, so that lows in central counties (if the snow happens) may fall to -8 C or lower. Around coasts it will be closer to -2 C. The day should turn out mostly sunny after any fog dissipates, and highs would likely remain quite cold in the 2 to 7 C range.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for this cold spell to end mid-week with moderating slight frosts and milder days, possibly followed rather quickly by strong southwest winds and rain by Thursday and Friday with temperatures back to more normal values.

Stay tuned and expect to find an update around 7 p.m. as I check the latest guidance for any new twists in the plot.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with very light rain at times and highs near 7 C. In eastern regions of North America, the old storm system is dying out near Labrador today but in its wake there are heavy snow showers near the Great Lakes and western slopes of the mountains in Vermont, in fact some of the heaviest snowfalls of this period have been in these mountain regions far removed from the main action of the blizzard.

M.T. Cranium · 15-03-2018 9:00pm

UPDATE __ Thursday 15 March 8 p.m. __

After consulting with the latest guidance and some experienced weather forum posters, I have drawn the conclusion that the forecast needs no significant amendment. I continue to expect onset of scattered snow showers in Leinster around mid to late afternoon Saturday 17th and more widespread snow overnight and during Sunday at times covering most parts of Leinster, some coastal and eastern portions of Munster, and those adjacent areas of Connacht (Roscommon and east Galway in particular). Southeast Ulster may also see some snow. Amounts will generally be in the range of 10 to 30 cm in the heavier snowfall areas of central and southeast Leinster, and 5 to 15 cm towards the margins of the zone outlined above.

There may be some mixing of precipitation types in these streamer bands especially during the first half of the event. Thunder is likely especially around Dublin. Snow depths will be decreased during and after the falls partly by the stronger "insolation" power of the mid-March sun so that falls achieved overnight may partially melt even if new snow falls during the day.

A rough guide to how much you might expect in your locality would be to take one-quarter of what fell in the previous severe episode except if you live in counties on the west coast, take one-tenth as I don't think these streamers will be quite as able to traverse the entire country with as much intensity. Roughly 5 cm is the over/under for Galway city for example. Places that had no snow last time will be most likely to repeat this time but a few places that had snow last time won't get any this time (into parts of south Mayo and in Kerry or west Limerick possibly).

The other item to underline is that very cold temperatures will be more widespread after the snowfall this time because there won't be much cloud around by Monday night or Tuesday night and strong high pressure will build up, unlike the cloudy and drizzly end to the cold snap last time. So we may see lower readings than were experienced in many locations around 1st of March.

M.T. Cranium · 16-03-2018 8:18am

Friday, 16 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for very cold temperatures and locally significant snowfalls from Saturday 17th to Tuesday 20th (the snowfalls mainly on Sunday 18th). Details in forecasts.

TODAY ... Persistent light rain in parts of Ulster and north Connacht, north Leinster this morning, breaking up to showers later. Some sunny intervals in central and southern counties with scattered showers developing, one or two possibly heavy and thundery with hail. Moderate east winds at times 30 to 50 km/hr although more variable in direction in south. Highs 8 to 11 C. About 5 mm of rain on average but some places will remain dry.

TONIGHT ... Rather windy at times, turning quite cold with a chance of sleet or wet snow showers by morning, as winds rise to easterly 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows 1 to 4 C.

SATURDAY (St. Patrick's Day) will turn quite windy and much colder with passing showers of sleet or wet snow mingled with sunny intervals, in easterly winds of 50 to 70 km/hr. Morning temperatures of 1 to 3 C will likely be close to the afternoon highs as temperatures will not make much upward progress due to the arrival of arctic air from Scandinavia. Highs of 5 to 7 C may be achieved in west Munster and coastal Connacht. For most, especially in Leinster, the wind chills will be significant (making it feel like -1 C).

SUNDAY will be very cold with lows -6 to -2 C and highs 1 to 4 C, and windy (east to northeast 50 to 80 km/hr) but the risk of snow is now fairly significant and the most likely areas to see 10 to 30 cms of snow potentially would be central and south Leinster with 5 to 15 cms the most likely range for parts of the midlands and south coast. There may also be some additional outbreaks of heavier snow in the south later in the day from low pressure forming off the south coast. This potential can be better addressed closer to the time. Regardless, there should be some sunny breaks away from the snow streamers in parts of west Ulster and Connacht. The wind chill could be quite severe too at about -8 C at times.

MONDAY some of this snow may linger closer to the coasts as light wintry showers before dying out, as sunshine will become more dominant, but it will stay very cold after lows in the range of -8 to -4 C. Highs will be held down to near freezing (0 C) over snow cover and 2 to 5 C elsewhere. Winds will remain rather brisk northeast 40 to 60 km/hr dying out slowly by evening and falling off to calm overnight.

TUESDAY could bring an exceptionally cold start as clear skies and light winds allow for strong cooling especially near any snow packs that might develop, so that lows in central counties (if the snow happens) may fall to -8 C or even lower. Around coasts it will be closer to -2 C. The day should turn out mostly sunny after any fog dissipates, and highs would likely remain quite cold in the 2 to 7 C range with generally light and variable winds.

WEDNESDAY could also have quite a cold start especially in the south and east as cloud increases across the west and north in a developing southwest flow. Lows of -6 to -2 C south and east, zero to +4 C west and north. Rain may arrive by afternoon and evening, highs 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY will be wet and windy with highs near 12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for a rather chilly pattern to persist, as colder air makes a few more visits, although mainly from a northwesterly source so that showers would be mixed and wintry only on higher ground for the most part, however, it will remain unseasonably cold much of the time for the rest of March with just the odd day reaching near normal values.

My local weather on Thursday was pleasant, some brighter intervals despite cloud and a mild high of 10 C. About a week or two like this would gradually remove all of our snow pack (now 10 to 15 cm on average) but the plow piles would remain, and there's little sign of anything very different except for some light rain at times in the next two weeks here. The pattern across eastern North America remains rather cold for mid-March with further snow potential looming from Virginia north to New England, starting with this coming Sunday and Monday, and at intervals for the rest of the month it would appear.

M.T. Cranium · 17-03-2018 8:28am

Saturday, 17 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for severe cold and locally heavy snowfalls later today, tonight and Sunday with the cold persisting into Tuesday (snow should be largely done by Monday). Details in forecasts.

TODAY (happy St. Patrick's Day to you all) will turn quite windy and much colder with passing showers of sleet or wet snow mingled with a few sunny intervals, in easterly winds of 50 to 70 km/hr with gusts to 90 km/hr possible by afternoon. Passing rain showers in Connacht until mid-day before the cold air reaches that far west. For Leinster and east-central Ulster, morning temperatures of 1 to 3 C will likely be close to the afternoon highs as temperatures will not make much upward progress due to the arrival of arctic air from Scandinavia. Highs of 5 to 7 C may be achieved in Munster and coastal Connacht where temperatures will fall rapidly during the afternoon. For most, especially in Leinster, the wind chills will be significant (making it feel like -1 C). Heavier snow showers will likely develop rapidly after 2 p.m. in Leinster and near the south coast, accumulations are expected by 4 p.m. or so.

TONIGHT will bring winter storm conditions to parts of Leinster and the south coast, possibly extending into the midlands at times, and also in some parts of Ulster. East to northeast winds of 70 to 110 km/hr are likely with snow and blowing snow, 15 to 40 cm accumulations in total by later Sunday, of which perhaps 5 to 20 cm will fall in some parts tonight. Blowing and drifting snow may reduce visibility to near zero at times in open areas of central Leinster and near the south coast. The snow may not move very far inland on the south coast with the wind parallel to the coast or even slightly off the land at times, but some heavy showers could be experienced almost anywhere in the country from remnants of the east coast streamers. Heaviest snow appears likely in Dublin, north Kildare, parts of Meath, Westmeath and Louth, (and eastern NI), also parts of Laois, Offaly, Wicklow, Wexford, Waterford, Carlow and Kilkenny but may extend into other counties at times (Cavan, Monaghan, Longford, Roscommon, east Galway, Tipperary, Cork at moderate risk). Overnight lows of -4 C will feel more like -10 C in the strong and gusty winds. Thunder snow is quite likely. (note that although current alert level is orange, it may need to be upgraded to red in parts of Leinster). High tides will bring some coastal flooding as today is new moon, combined with these strong winds, fortunately the moon is near its further point in orbit which reduces the potential slightly.

SUNDAY will be very cold with lows -6 to -2 C and highs 1 to 4 C, and windy (east to northeast 70 to 110 km/hr) with further heavy snow with blowing and drifting, possibly mixing with sleet at times with final accumulations of 15 to 40 cms of snow potentially in Leinster with 5 to 25 cms the most likely range for parts of the midlands and south coast. Thunder snow will continue to be reported most likely around the heavier accumulations. There may also be some additional outbreaks of heavier snow in the south later in the day; snow potential in Atlantic counties is not as great but you can expect some scattered falls of 1 to 3 cm almost anywhere while some places will remain largely snow free. Regardless of the extent of snow, there should be some sunny breaks away from the snow streamers, more frequent in parts of west Ulster and Connacht as well as Clare and Limerick. The wind chill could be quite severe too at about -8 C at times. The snow should begin to taper off to flurries overnight with more extensive clearing towards Monday morning.

MONDAY some of this snow may linger closer to the coasts as light wintry showers before dying out, as sunshine will become more dominant, but it will stay very cold after morning lows in the range of -8 to -4 C. Highs will be held down to near freezing (0 C) over snow cover and 2 to 5 C elsewhere. Winds will remain rather brisk northeast 40 to 60 km/hr at first, but will subside by evening and falling off to calm overnight as the centre of high pressure now in Norway drifts south across Ireland.

TUESDAY could bring an exceptionally cold start as clear skies and light winds allow for strong cooling especially near any snow packs that might develop, so that lows in central counties (if the snow happens) may fall to -8 C or even lower. Around coasts it will be closer to -2 C. The day should turn out mostly sunny after any fog dissipates, and highs would likely remain quite cold in the 2 to 7 C range with generally light and variable winds. Note: due to the atmospheric conditions, static electricity may build up, this can be a safety concern for some, in particular operators of heavy machinery. On a more mundane level, you may get a shock when touching metal objects. This is not confined to Tuesday but would probably be more likely then, compared to other days in this cold spell.

WEDNESDAY could also have quite a cold start especially in the south and east as cloud increases across the west and north in a developing southwest flow around the high pressure area which will continue to drift further south into the Biscay region. Lows of -6 to -2 C south and east, zero to +4 C west and north. Rain may arrive by afternoon and evening, highs 8 to 11 C. Winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr by evening.

THURSDAY will be wet and windy with highs near 12 C. Southwest winds 60 to 90 km/hr, about 10 mm of rain likely. The milder temperatures will be quite short-lived and readings will already be falling off again by Thursday evening.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for a rather chilly pattern to persist, as another batch of colder air arrives on Friday, to be followed by a brief warmup around Monday 26th, into Tuesday 27th, but cold again after that for several days -- these forthcoming cold spells may be less severe and from a northwesterly to northerly direction, but they could produce mixed wintry showers right into the Easter weekend.

The silver lining to all this unseasonably cold weather is that cold spring weather has often led to warmer than average summers, and I'm thinking that a reversal may come as early as the second half of April into May.

My local weather on Friday was mild and spring-like with glimpses of sun despite a fairly cloudy sky, and highs near 13 C. Our snow has pretty much given up now and is sinking into the ground while the moisture in it evaporates into the air (very little melting apparent).

Astronomy note: Today marks the new moon timed for 1313h. (that's 1:13 p.m. Irish standard time or 0613h for me in Pacific daylight saving time, we turned our clocks forward last weekend).

M.T. Cranium · 18-03-2018 7:50am

Sunday, 18 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for scattered outbreaks of moderate to heavy snow in Leinster and south, east Munster, also parts of east Ulster, while results are likely to be a patchwork quilt of various amounts, watch for heavier amounts in Wicklow and Wexford spreading into Waterford and some other parts of the inland southeast by mid-day, as snow developing over Wales moves west then southwest into Ireland. There will also be more streamers forming over the Irish Sea affecting mostly central and north Leinster. The two snowfall areas will perhaps merge into one complex snowstorm later this morning but even so, snowfall rates will be quite variable from place to place and from hour to hour, amounts will mostly fall into the range of 7 to 12 cm further snow but could reach 20 to 25 cm locally (Wexford and south Wicklow possibly). It will continue mostly dry in the west, northwest and some central counties but remnant snow may at times reach Kerry and Limerick. ADVANCE ALERT for very cold overnight temperatures on Monday and Tuesday mornings, lows -8 to -6 C inland with potential for localized -10 C readings.

TODAY ... Rather windy and very cold with outbreaks of snow for most of Leinster, southeast Ulster, south and east Munster. Some heavier periods of snow by mid-day in Wicklow and Wexford, spreading to Waterford and inland southeast, 10 to 20 cms in places. Variable amounts of snow from streamers further north in Leinster, 5 to 15 cms for most but a few places outside that range. Moderate northeast winds of about 60 to 90 km/hr at times will cause blowing and drifting snow especially in open countryside. Some coastal locations could have sleet mixing in with the snow by afternoon. ... Further west and north, some sunny intervals, the odd stray snow shower and very cold in northeast winds of 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs in all regions about 1 to 4 C, higher readings on Atlantic coasts. Feeling like -3 C or lower in the wind.

TONIGHT ... Snow becoming intermittent and light, a further 1 to 5 cm likely in some places, more clearing will develop and bitterly cold with lows to -6 C away from the somewhat milder east coast (-2 C there). Winds northeast 40 to 70 km/hr.

MONDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine with a few passing wintry showers near east coast mainly, just a slight risk of any further accumulations of snow, but what remains from today will be subject to blowing and drifting during the morning in northeast winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 4 to 6 C.

TUESDAY ... The morning will bring some bitterly cold temperatures in clear and calm conditions, lows -8 to -5 C inland, -3 C near coasts. Some patchy ice fog may form and persist part of the morning, otherwise the day is likely to be mostly sunny and while quite cold, with the light winds feeling a bit milder (highs 5 to 9 C). Very dry air and a risk of static electricity buildups.

WEDNESDAY ... Still rather cold in east and south for the morning, lows -5 to -1 C. Increasing cloud further north, lows 2 to 5 C, then this cloud will spread gradually further south to cover most regions by evening, as winds slowly pick up from the southwest. Highs 7 to 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Breezy or windy at times, milder, rain developing (about 10 mm). Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows 2 to 6 C and highs about 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy with strong to severe gusts from west to northwest, turning colder again, showers becoming sleety on hills as temperatures fall gradually from 8 C to 2 C, winds may reach 80 to 110 km/hr at times.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Several days of windy, cool unsettled weather over the following weekend, any warming will be rather short-lived and renewed cold weather will persist to the Easter weekend at the end of March. The prevailing winds will be northwest to north at times but it likely won't become quite as cold as today in these forthcoming cool intervals, more like 4 to 7 C (but late March normally 11 to 14 C).

My local weather seems to be in total contrast, sunny and quite dry with highs reaching about 10 C.

There may be a need to update the forecast if heavy snow shows any signs of organization, some places are going to get hit by it, most likely south of Dublin or near Dublin, and the most likely time for this will be late morning to early afternoon. I think there is a slight risk of a code red being declared at least for some counties in the southeast. Stay tuned.

M.T. Cranium · 19-03-2018 7:54am

Monday, 19 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with some afternoon sunny breaks developing, mostly in northern counties and near Atlantic coasts. It will continue to be rather cold but less windy (northeast 30 to 50 km/hr) and with temperatures up several degrees, it won't feel as cold as recent days. Highs 6 to 8 C. Just a few passing light flurries not leaving much if any accumulation, although one or two weak streamers may try to form and could leave 1 or 2 cm of snow in a few places, but it will remain dry most of the day in most places. The snow left behind will melt to some extent but may disappear more through sublimation into the atmosphere, some icy patches will remain until Tuesday afternoon in shaded spots.

TONIGHT ... Where it stays or becomes clear, lows could drop to -5 or even as low as -7 C. Somewhat milder near coasts but a widespread sharp frost is likely, with winds calm. Some patchy fog may form in valleys.

TUESDAY ... Mostly sunny and slowly warming back up to highs of about 8 or 9 C after quite a cold start. Light winds becoming southwest by afternoon 20 to 40 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, lows -3 to +2 C and highs 8 to 11 C. Rain by evening in west.

THURSDAY ... Windy with rain at times, 5-10 mm likely, winds south to southwest 70-100 km/hr by afternoon and evening, highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and turning colder by afternoon, rain ending then variable cloud with scattered wintry showers developing as winds veer sharply from southwest 50 km/hr to northwest 70 km/hr or stronger in some parts of the northwest, temperatures steady near 8 C then falling gradually to about 2 C by evening.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat unsettled through the weekend in west to northwest winds, occasional showers, some wintry, but only minor accumulations expected, daytime highs about 6 or 7 C and nights close to 1 or 2 C. This spell may get slightly milder by about Tuesday 27th then it will turn quite cold at the end of the month in a northerly flow with the risk of snow showers returning, no major accumulations foreseen away from higher ground though.

For those who are wondering how long the spring will remain this delayed and cold, my educated guess is that a reversal will occur in late April and that May could turn out to be quite warm. This will accelerate the delayed farming or gardening seasons back to a more normal situation by mid to late May but it could remain behind schedule through a good part of April.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with a high near 9 C. Meanwhile a low moving through the central plains states is starting to produce snow in some areas and will become another fairly significant snowstorm for parts of the eastern U.S. by Tuesday night and Wednesday, so that region is also having a rather wintry type of March. I would say the weather around where I am has been close to average, and rather dry for March.

M.T. Cranium · 20-03-2018 8:03am

Tuesday, 20 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Frost clearing away by about 0930h, watch for icy spots in shaded areas and some black ice possible, then mostly sunny and slowly warming back up to highs of about 8 or 9 C. Light winds becoming southwest by afternoon 20 to 40 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals east and south will permit return of frost there, lows -3 to +1 C. Becoming overcast in west and north, lows only falling to about 3 or 4 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, some outbreaks of drizzle in north, hazy sunshine at times for south and east, with highs 8 to 11 C. Rain by evening in west.

THURSDAY ... Windy with rain at times, 5-10 mm likely, winds south to southwest 70-100 km/hr by afternoon and evening, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C. Strong westerly winds by evening near west coast.

FRIDAY ... Windy and turning colder by afternoon, rain ending then variable cloud with scattered wintry showers developing as winds veer sharply from southwest 50 km/hr to northwest 70 km/hr or stronger in some parts of the northwest, temperatures steady near 8 C then falling gradually to about 2 C by evening.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat unsettled through the weekend in west to northwest winds, occasional showers, some wintry, but only minor accumulations expected, daytime highs about 6 or 7 C and nights close to 1 or 2 C. This spell may get slightly milder by about Monday 26th and Tuesday 27th with highs near 12 C, then it will turn quite cold at the end of the month in a northerly flow with the risk of snow showers returning, no major accumulations foreseen away from higher ground though. The Easter weekend looks quite chilly at present, as this northerly may end with a few more cold days of east winds although not much snow potential appears so far, sharp frosts and cool days near 7 C. I continue to expect much of April to be rather cool but a rapid warming trend late in the month and into May.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with passing showers that were mostly over the local mountains so we didn't get very much measurable rainfall, perhaps 1 or 2 mm. It was cooler than the past week at about 6 C. Meanwhile, a powerful storm is developing over the southeastern U.S., having brought some tornadic storms to Alabama and Georgia, and heavy rains further north; the next stage will be for the heavy rain to start becoming sleet then wet snow as it moves northeast, and a heavy wet snowfall will follow for most of the larger cities and the I-95 corridor from Richmond VA to Boston and up into Maine. This will come by tonight and Wednesday and could cause power outages as branches fall on power lines in the region. Wintry cold is hanging on to the north of this weather system in the Great Lakes region and upper Midwest.

Astronomy note: The spring equinox occurs today at 1617h (4:17 p.m.).

M.T. Cranium · 21-03-2018 7:39am

Wednesday, 21 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy except for a few morning sunny breaks in the south, outbreaks of drizzle or light rain, only 2 to 4 mm expected in some parts of the north. Moderate southwest winds developing, highs about 9 or 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, rain becoming heavier, southerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr, lows near 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Rather windy with intervals of rain, about 10 mm likely, and highs near 10 C in south to southwest winds 50 to 70 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Windy at times, clearing then variable cloud returning by afternoon with occasional light rain in parts of the south. Morning lows about 4 C and afternoon highs near 8 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Rather unsettled, but rainfall amounts slight, partly to mostly cloudy with highs both days near 11 C and morning lows about 4 C. Westerly winds 40 to 70 km/hr.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Windy with some rain each day first half of next week, then turning colder in stages, with another quite cold spell expected just around the end of the month in time for Easter. Slight chance of snow showers in a few places, and sharp frosts.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly to mostly cloudy and milder with highs near 10 C. The east coast of the U.S. is bracing for a nasty mix of snow and sleet today, and this will continue Thursday in parts of New England while moving into eastern Canada. In the wake of this late winter storm, quite cold arctic air is moving south and will cover eastern and most central regions for several days.

M.T. Cranium · 22-03-2018 7:33am

Thursday, 22 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Overcast with rain spreading east, staying dry in Leinster until late morning, most places will eventually have 5-10 mm rain. Winds increasing gradually to reach south to southwest 60-90 km/hr by evening, veering westerly in Atlantic coastal counties with some strong gusts around midnight.

TONIGHT ... Windy at times, showers clearing east, winds veering westerly 70-110 km/hr around midnight west, 0400h east coast, temperatures falling slowly to about 6 C by morning.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, some showers at times, strong winds diminishing before mid-day, then a few intervals of rain developing, heavier in south by late in the day. Highs near 8 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, passing showers, winds west to northwest 40-60 km/hr, lows 2-4 C and highs 9-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Some early sunshine then increasing cloud, outbreaks of light rain, cool. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 8-10 C.

MONDAY ... Windy with rain at times, winds southwest 70-100 km/hr veering westerly, temperatures steady 7 to 9 C (11 to 13 C south coast).

TUESDAY ... Showers, moderate west to northwest winds, turning colder late in the day, highs near 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Another cold spell is indicated from mid-week (Wed 28th) to the Easter weekend, with an easterly wind setting in for several days. Although it may be cold enough to snow in some places, with highs near 5 C and overnight lows to -2 or lower, the spell looks fairly dry so any snow would likely be isolated to higher ground in Leinster. During the Easter weekend, mixed rain and wet snow could develop from Atlantic systems trying to push the cold air back but not having much success, as the cold air looks set to remain around into early April.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with cloudy intervals and quite mild with a high near 14 C. Our snow is getting more patchy now but large (and dirt-covered) mounds of plowed snow remain in place. Meanwhile, New York City and Long Island got the worst of the east coast snowstorm with 50 cm reported in parts of Long Island and about 20-30 cm in NYC. The storm is too far south to bring a lot of snow to New England except for parts of southeastern Massachusetts, Boston might get a few cms today. Nova Scotia will get considerably more as the low tracks up the coast there.

M.T. Cranium · 23-03-2018 8:06am

Friday, 23 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

Be forewarned, winter wants yet another chance to impress us, with another easterly spell of unseasonably cold weather showing up on all the guidance today from about middle of next week through the Easter weekend. Details (obviously quite a long way to go before much confidence can be had in these) in the forecast.

TODAY ... Variable cloud, some showers at times, strong westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr diminishing all morning, then after some sunny intervals here and there, a few outbreaks of rain developing, heavier in south by late in the day. Highs near 8 C. Some showers could contain a bit of hail especially in north and west today.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing, light rain more confined to south coast by midnight then drying out there too, frost developing inland central and northern counties, lows -3 to +2 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, passing showers, winds west to northwest 40-60 km/hr, and highs 7-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Some early sunshine then increasing cloud, outbreaks of light rain, cool. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 8-10 C.

MONDAY ... Windy with rain at times, winds southwest 70-100 km/hr veering westerly, temperatures steady 7 to 9 C (11 to 13 C south coast). Rainfalls of 20 to 30 mm likely.

TUESDAY ... Showers, moderate west to northwest winds across southern half of Ireland but light or northeasterly in Ulster and parts of Connacht, turning colder from mid-day in north and late in the day across the south, highs 4 to 7 C north, 8 to 10 C central and 10 to 13 C south. About 10-15 mm of rain likely during the first part of the day, some mixed wintry showers developing in north by evening.

OUTLOOK ... Another cold spell is indicated from mid-week (Wed 28th) to the Easter weekend, with an easterly wind setting in for several days. Although it may be cold enough to snow in some places, with highs near 5 C and overnight lows to -2 or lower, the spell looks fairly dry so any snow would likely be isolated to higher ground in Leinster. However, at some point around Good Friday (30th) a sleet and snow mixture may push into parts of the south and some mixed wintry showers might develop in Leinster from streamers in the east winds which will become brisk at times over the Easter weekend. The cold air looks set to remain around Ireland into early April. It's too early to say whether this spell will match the last one for snowfall potential but despite the advance of the season by two weeks, this is far from impossible, in fact, one of Ireland's heaviest snowfalls occurred on the first two days of April in 1917.

My local weather was overcast with a few brief intervals of rain but mostly a dry day with highs near 9 C. Mixed precipitation is showing up on radar over mountains to the west of us tonight, looks to be heading north more than east but eventually we are going to be falling back several degrees and any precipitation around here on the weekend could be snow showers. The east coast storm is now hitting Newfoundland and there's a clearing trend in most other regions of eastern Canada and the U.S., but it remains quite cold for mid to late March and looks set to continue that way for most of the remaining week of this month.

Australia is tracking two tropical cyclones, one off the west coast (Marcus) is strong now but will be weak when it drifts ashore near Perth on Monday. A second one, Nora, is meandering southeast into the Gulf of Carpentaria (that big indentation in northern coast of Oz) where it may become a category three storm hitting thinly populated coastal areas in north Queensland at some point before Monday. Otherwise the weather looks typical for late summer or early autumn across the land down under with mostly dry weather on land now.

M.T. Cranium · 24-03-2018 7:56am

Saturday, 24 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy and rather cool, with a few passing showers, but some sunny intervals in blustery winds west to northwest 40-60 km/hr, and highs 7-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, quite cold, lows -3 to +2 C. Frost likely.

SUNDAY ... Some early sunshine then increasing cloud, showers developing, cool. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 8-10 C.

MONDAY ... Windy with rain at times, winds southwest 70-100 km/hr veering westerly, temperatures steady 7 to 9 C (11 to 13 C south coast). Rainfalls of 20 to 30 mm likely.

TUESDAY ... Showers, moderate to strong west to northwest winds across southern half of Ireland but light to moderate northwest to northerly in Ulster and parts of Connacht, turning colder from mid-day in north and late in the day across the south, highs 5 to 8 C north, 9 to 11 C central and 10 to 13 C south. About 10-15 mm of rain likely during the first part of the day, some mixed wintry showers developing in north by evening.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, cold, outbreaks of sleety light rain with snow on some hills, lows near 0 C and highs near 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, light rain or sleet, snow on some hills, lows near -2 C and highs near 6 or 7 C.

GOOD FRIDAY to EASTER SUNDAY weekend ... The indications remain rather cold although perhaps not quite as cold as earlier expected, even so, mixed wintry showers will be possible and there could be outbreaks of either cold rain or sleet with low pressure not far away from the south or southeast coasts at times. Highs during the weekend period will be in the range of 5 to 8 C and slight to moderate frosts likely at night especially in Connacht and Ulster. So although snow now appears rather limited to higher ground, there could be another change in this outlook with this much time remaining, and keeping in mind the previous pattern of easterly spells appearing then becoming stronger on the charts towards the five day outlook (which in this case would be about Monday or Tuesday).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Staying cold well into April with sharp frosts continuing, a very backward spring showing few signs of a pattern change any time before mid-April. Eventually though I do expect that things will improve markedly if for no other reason than the law of averages kicking in, but also research shows that quite often a cold early spring is followed by a warm late April and May regime.

My local weather on Friday was mostly cloudy, rather windy and turning colder during the day with some light sleet at times, temperatures were near 10 C for a while in the morning then fell to about 2 C by afternoon.

M.T. Cranium · 25-03-2018 8:03am

Sunday, 25 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny with increasing afternoon cloud, isolated showers, but clearing again by evening, cool. Highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals east and north, increasing cloud west and south, lows -2 to +3 C. Light rain by morning in west.

MONDAY ... Windy with rain at times, after a dry start in east, winds increasing to reach southwest 70-100 km/hr late afternoon then veering westerly 80 to 110 km/hr by evening and overnight, temperatures steady 7 to 9 C (11 to 13 C south coast). Rainfalls of 20 to 30 mm likely.

TUESDAY ... Showers, moderate to strong west to northwest winds across southern half of Ireland but light to moderate northwest to northerly in Ulster and parts of Connacht, turning colder from mid-day in north and late in the day across the south, highs 5 to 8 C north, 9 to 11 C central and 10 to 13 C south. About 10-15 mm of rain likely during the first part of the day, some mixed wintry showers developing in north by evening. Winds generally easing by Tuesday night, but quite cold with mixed wintry showers on higher terrain in west.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, cold, outbreaks of sleety light rain with snow on some hills, lows near 0 C and highs near 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, light rain or sleet, snow on some hills, lows near -2 C and highs near 6 or 7 C.

GOOD FRIDAY to EASTER SUNDAY weekend ... Rather cold with outbreaks of cold rain, sleet or even snow on high ground at times, in a generally northeasterly wind regime with slow-moving low pressure not far away from the south or southeast coasts. Highs during the weekend period will be in the range of 5 to 8 C and slight to moderate frosts likely at night especially in Connacht and Ulster. So although snow now appears rather limited to higher ground, there could be another change in this outlook with this much time remaining, and keeping in mind the previous pattern of easterly spells appearing then becoming stronger on the charts towards the five day outlook (which in this case would be about Monday or Tuesday).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rain or sleet in northeast winds by Easter Monday, then gradual clearing but staying cold during the first week of April with sharp frosts continuing, a very backward spring showing few signs of a pattern change any time before mid-April. Eventually though I do expect that things will improve markedly if for no other reason than the law of averages kicking in, but also research shows that quite often a cold early spring is followed by a warm late April and May regime.

My local weather on Saturday was cold and overcast with light snow that did not accumulate, highs near 2 or 3 C. A sharp frontal boundary across the central and southeastern U.S. divided warm spring weather (highs 20-25 C) to the south from snow in a narrow band then clear and cold to the north associated with a large sprawling high pressure area in northern Ontario and Hudson Bay. The snow band will pull away from southern Virginia late tonight into the Atlantic allowing the colder air to press further south although not all the way to the Gulf coast.

M.T. Cranium · 26-03-2018 7:45am

Monday, 26 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Overcast with rain developing from west this morning to east by early afternoon, becoming windy (southeast to southerly 50 to 80 km/hr). About 10 to 15 mm of rain for many locations, highs 9 to 12 C will occur this evening.

TONIGHT ... Very windy with rain turning more to squally showers with some hail possible, winds veering to westerly 70 to 110 km/hr, temperatures near 10 C most of the night then falling slowly towards morning in western counties. About 5 to 10 mm additional rainfalls.

TUESDAY ... Very windy with squally showers, some hail or sleet, turning colder with winds west to northwest 70 to 110 km/hr, temperatures sliding down gradually to about 5 C by afternoon. Some snow by late in the day on higher ground especially in Connacht, west Munster and west Ulster.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, cold, wintry showers, moderate westerly winds backing to southwesterly, snow possible on some hills, morning lows -1 to +2 C and afternoon highs 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain or sleet developing, northeast winds 40-60 km/hr, cold with temperatures steady around 4 to 6 C.

OUTLOOK for EASTER WEEKEND ... There continues to be some uncertainty, most of the guidance indicates cold, unsettled weather with more chance of rain in the south and east, and this rain quite close to being sleet even at lower elevations, so mixing with snow on some higher ground, in generally northeast winds. The uncertainty comes from some guidance that is indicating a gradual relaxation of the cold pattern but this has not spread to all models yet and may not be a reliable signal, so keep in mind that there is a slight chance of this cold Easter scenario changing to something a bit more normal for early April although we cannot be confident of this yet, the cold could dig in and continue to rule for another week to ten days past Easter. The most likely temperature range for the days (Good Friday to Easter Monday) is about 5 to 8 C with nights not much colder than that under extensive cloud (2 to 4 C) but frosts could develop anywhere that it manages to clear, that being more likely in the northwest than elsewhere.

My local weather on Sunday was generally quite reasonable with sunny intervals and highs near 6 C but a front moved through late in the afternoon and brought an hour of snow, none of which stuck and this has moved on now. It is very cold in eastern portions of Canada and the northeast U.S. while quite mild in the south central states and parts of the southwest.

M.T. Cranium · 27-03-2018 7:47am

Tuesday, 27 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy with a few showers, quite windy (winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr), turning colder in the afternoon in western counties and by evening in eastern counties. Highs near 10 C early on, but temperatures steady near 10 C east, and falling to about 5 C by late afternoon in the west.

TONIGHT ... A few clear intervals, isolated showers, still rather breezy and cold with localized frosts, well inland, lows -2 to +3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers with some hail and thunder possible, cold, highs 5 to 7 C. Moderate westerly winds backing to southwest 40 to 60 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Outbreaks of rain or sleet, some snow possible on higher terrain, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 5 to 7 C. Winds generally rather light but northeast 30-50 km/hr in parts of the north. Rainfall may be more persistent near west coast then later near south coast.

GOOD FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, some outbreaks of rain or sleet, but also some sunny intervals, in moderate east to northeast winds, cool with lows -2 to +2 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

EASTER WEEKEND will continue rather cold with east to northeast winds and occasional light rain or sleet, snow on some hills, lows about -2 C and highs 6 to 9 C. At this point it looks like some breaks in the overcast will occur but there could be a period of steady rain later Sunday into Monday (2nd April) with some heavy falls possible by then, as milder air tries to push back this colder air.

The further outlook is very uncertain with some guidance showing a warming trend but other models staying cold for quite some time into April, so basically weak signals that the global models are having trouble extending very far into the future.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy and cold with a raw southeast wind and highs no better than 2 or 3 C. We are expecting some improvements mid-week with highs closer to normal values (about 10 C here by now). Rain and milder weather have moved into the central states and the cold spell will end on the east coast today as well with temperatures back into the more normal 15 to 18 C range.

M.T. Cranium · 28-03-2018 7:42am

Wednesday, 28 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Frequent showers becoming rather sleety as it continues to turn colder, but some brighter intervals developing by afternoon, which may allow some isolated showers to develop hail and thunder. Highs only about 6 to 8 C. Moderate southwest winds backing to south then light and variable by this evening.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, some sleety showers at times, snow possible on hills. Lows -2 to +2 C.

THURSDAY ... Sleety rain over much of the southern and eastern parts of Ireland during the morning will move further west by afternoon in a developing northeast wind flow, and it will be quite cold with highs only 5 to 8 C.

GOOD FRIDAY ... Sleety showers continuing, some snow on hills, brief sunny spells mostly in north and west, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, cool, isolated wintry showers, northeast winds 30-50 km/hr, lows -3 to +1 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

EASTER SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, cool, increasing cloud with rain by afternoon or evening, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

MONDAY ... Rain with temperatures steady around 11 or 12 C for part of the day then turning colder, foggy, some sleet may develop across Ulster and parts of Connacht and north Leinster as temperatures fall back towards 5 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some quite cold conditions will return for several days with frosts and highs below 10 C.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with occasional rain, heavy at times, and cold with highs only about 3 C. The snow line is only a short drive up the road from the valley floor here. We are expecting a two-day break from this dreary weather.

M.T. Cranium · 29-03-2018 7:11am

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A band of rain with sleet on higher ground will continue to push slowly northeast today from its current location in west-central counties, and later there could be falls of wet snow on higher ground in Leinster and south/east Ulster. Away from this band, some sunny intervals with more isolated wintry showers will prevail. Cold especially in the more persistent mixed or wintry precipitation. Highs 4 to 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Continued mixed wintry showers mostly east and north, some clear intervals west and south, where more chance of frost. Lows -2 to +2 C.

GOOD FRIDAY ... Remnants of today's mixed or sleety precipitation will begin to drift back to the west in a developing northeast wind of 30 to 50 km/hr. This will bring the heavier sleety showers into western counties by mid-day or afternoon. Cold, with highs 4 to 8 C.

SATURDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, wintry showers more isolated and possibly associated with a few streamers from Irish Sea into south or central Leinster in northeast winds of about 40 km/hr. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 5 to 9 C.

EASTER SUNDAY ... Sunny but rather cold to start, then increasing cloud, rain developing across the south by late in the day. Lows -4 to +1 C and highs 6 to 11 C, milder in west Munster.

MONDAY ... Rain, drizzle and fog becoming widespread, some of the rain may change back to sleet then wet snow in the north as colder air mixes in from the east. Temperatures falling slowly from mild morning readings near 11 C south, 8 C north, to 4 or 5 C.

OUTLOOK ... Quite cold mid-week with sharp frosts, then gradually warming to more normal April levels. The warming trend will not be without a few reversals but there are finally some signs of temperatures into the mid-teens at certain points during the second week of April.

My local weather turned a lot warmer even where I live but we cheated nature by driving southwest to a warmer valley close to the U.S. border and it was sunny and 15 C here on Wednesday. Hoping for more of the same today. Widespread spring rains have moved into the eastern regions of the U.S. and southern Ontario with highs near 15 C, and up to 25 C in the warmer air over the southeast U.S.

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