Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 12 November, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cold and windy at times (NW 40-70 km/hr), in fact very windy in parts of Ulster (60-110 km/hr in exposed locations), long intervals of sunshine for many but frequent wintry showers in Ulster and possibly nearby parts of Connacht and north Leinster. Highs 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear except for some low cloud moving into coastal north and northwest, very cold especially inland south, central and eastern counties with a sharp frost and lows near -3 C inland. There may be a frost around midnight further north but temperatures will rise with the encroaching cloud to near 4 C.

MONDAY ... Morning frost, local fog patches with a risk of icy sections on rural roads, then increasing cloud, drizzle turning to steady light rain in parts of the west and north, moderate southwest winds developing, highs 8 to 11 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, mild. Lows 3 to 6 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, mild, rain late in the day lasting overnight in eastern counties, highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and turning colder, rain mixing with sleety hail or wet snow showers, winds west to northwest 50-80 km/hr, temperatures steady near 4 C in west and north and falling from 8 to about 5 C in east and south.

FRIDAY ... Windy and cold, mixed wintry showers, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 6 to 8 C.

SATURDAY ... Rain perhaps starting with sleet or wet snow on hills, then milder later in the day, temperatures rising gradually to near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Sunday and Monday will see further intervals of rain but some brief clearing between frontal waves, and highs near 10 C. Then it appears likely to turn quite cold and this time winds will turn more to the northeast which could bring snow showers into Leinster as well as east Ulster. Not quite as cold an outbreak as we saw in 2010 but certainly wintry enough if the charts are correct (this is still about ten days out). It looks like the sort of pattern that can create mixed falls of streamers so this could be somewhat elevation-dependent as far as snow potential. After this cold spell, more variable but still the odd cold day between near normal late November days (which would be around 7-8 C).

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with occasional light rain and highs near 10 C. Very warm across the southern third of the U.S. while record cold temperatures were observed in the Great Lakes and northeastern U.S. -- Central Park broke a record set in 1933 (which turned into one of the coldest winters, 1933-34, on record in the eastern states and Ontario).

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 13 November, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Watch out in some parts of the inland south for patches of black ice on rural roads, and a few fog patches with some glare from the low sun adding a hazard. This won't be too widespread but it should all moderate by 0930 or so, with a generally cloudy but dry and mild day in the south, overcast with light rain in the north, highs about 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Mild with a little rain lingering then misty, lows 5 to 7 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and mild days with highs each day around 12 C.

THURSDAY will become colder in stages, with some sunshine across southern and eastern counties, bands of showers that may be mixed and wintry on hills by later in the day. Temperatures will stall at about 8 C in the south and east, and will fall slowly to around 6 C in the west and north.

FRIDAY will have a frosty start in some areas, and sunshine with cloudy intervals and isolated showers, some of them wintry on hills. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

The outlook is rather uncertain as we have a big divergence in outcomes between the leading global models. The European model is suggesting colder air will dig in from about Saturday onward, which is what the U.S. (GFS) model was showing yesterday, but now it keeps these colder air masses off to the northeast and quickly returns to mild southerly flow. The GEM model (a Canadian product) has just about a middle course of some colder weather around Sunday and Monday followed by a slightly milder southeast flow, not showing as mild as the GFS. So my hunch is that there will be a colder turn for several days and that it could turn unsettled with the potential for bands of mixed wintry precipitation setting up next week as lows ripple along a frontal zone not far from Ireland during the week. But I should note that either extreme is possible as sometimes one model has things right and the others are wrong (the spectrum of outcomes is a bit of a tip off that a middle course might be the best one to choose). So basically it's wait and see what actually happens beyond the colder days at the end of this week, it could stay rather cold or it may go back to mild fairly easily.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with rain that has become quite heavy in advance of a strong disturbance approaching us from the southwest with a wind warning up for most of the coastal regions by mid-day Monday. It was relatively mild with highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 14 November, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals, mild, with some patchy light rain or drizzle mostly across north-central counties. Highs 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy with a few clear intervals, fog patches likely inland south, lows 5 to 8 C but could fall a bit lower in parts of the inland south.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, mild, rain arriving late in the day, highs about 11 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain ending during the morning east, followed by clearing, somewhat colder with isolated showers, which could be wintry on hills, as temperatures slowly fall to about 5-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, cool. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs near 7 C.

SATURDAY ... Frosty to start, increasing cloud, lows -3 to +2 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain or blustery showers, moderate southwest to west winds, temperatures steady 8 to 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models seem to have come closer to consensus with a general shift on yesterday's colder outlooks to a later arrival, and some shift towards that on the milder depictions. So it looks like the first half of next week will stay rather mild (8 to 11 C) with some rain at times, then a frontal zone will activate and drop south, possibly with some strong northerly winds associated, but details remain sketchy, this could be just a slightly colder turn again (4 to 7 C). I don't expect much clarity on this until perhaps the weekend.

My local weather on Monday was windy with passing showers, peak gusts around 80 km/hr so not too much disruption, and highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 15 November, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and brief sunny breaks at least in the south, thickening cloud in general by afternoon, quite mild, with light rain arriving late in the day as southwest winds increase to about 50-60 km/hr, highs about 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain slowly moving further east as winds veer gradually to westerly, staying mild until late overnight in west when somewhat colder air will arrive, lows will range from near 8 C east to 5 C west.

THURSDAY ... Rain ending during the morning east, followed by clearing, somewhat colder with isolated showers, which could be wintry on higher summits, as temperatures remain steady in the range of 6 to 8 C for most near sea level, and fresh westerly breezes 40-70 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, cool. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs near 7 C.

SATURDAY ... Frosty to start, increasing cloud, lows -3 to +2 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, late afternoon or evening rain or blustery showers, moderate southwest to west winds increasing to 50-80 km/hr, temperatures steady 8 to 11 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy with intervals of rain, highs near 12 C. About 10-20 mm rainfalls likely.

OUTLOOK ... It will stay relatively mild to about Thursday, and possibly beyond that but models are still having a discussion about whether the frontal zone stays just north or sags south of Ireland by Thursday 23rd, after that if the European model is right it will turn quite cold (4-6 C), if the American model is right then temperatures will only drop slightly (to about 8 or 9 C). A weak system with tropical tendencies has formed southwest of the Azores, while nothing like Ophelia, it could drift northeast and join forces with these fronts which is perhaps why the models are having difficulty with the outcome (no model depictions of any strong winds with this but different tracks that it might take after the weekend). At the moment, the chances seem slim that it will get a name but it may have winds of tropical storm force briefly near the Azores.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast and blustery with strong gusts at times and showery light rain, highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 16 November, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some sunny intervals will develop, with rather cold westerly winds 40 to 60 km/ghr, highs 7 to 9 C. When any lingering rain departs from the east, there may be a few further isolated showers and some of those could drop sleet on higher ground but in general it should be a mostly dry day.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, some frost inland, lows -2 to +3 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy (becoming overcast in the west by afternoon), highs around 8 or 9 C.

SATURDAY ... A band of drizzly light rain will move through some parts of Connacht into the midlands and then south-central Leinster, with 3-7 mm likely. North or south of this band, lesser amounts are likely and there could be a few sunny intervals. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers in north, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 9 to 11 C.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, mild, some rain at times in north mostly, highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Here's a rather strange thing, the models have reversed roles overnight, the GFS (American) model now wants to bring in significantly colder air around mid-week and the European model has a continuing rather mild southwest flow. The Canadian model continues to be somewhat of a compromise, more like a series of near frontal waves that could separate rain from sleet or snow. So in other words the outlook is so uncertain that the main theme is wait and see.

My local weather on Wednesday saw some improvements to partly cloudy with a few sunny breaks and highs near 8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 17 November, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Frost slowly clearing from the inland south, sunny intervals at first then increasing cloud, outbreaks of light rain or drizzle late in the day mainly near Atlantic coasts. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Further outbreaks of light rain or drizzle spreading gradually east, lows about 3 to 6 C. Misty or foggy by morning in some central counties.

SATURDAY ... Light rain will track across north-central counties towards the southeast, amounts should be rather small (2-5 mm) and it may be cool enough for some sleet to fall on higher slopes of south Ulster and east Connacht. Milder air will spread into parts of Munster. Highs will range from 6-9 C north and east, to 10-12 C west and south.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, some outbreaks of rain for northwest, moderate southwest breezes, with morning lows 5 to 7 C and afternoon highs 11 to 13 C.

MONDAY ... Overcast, mild, outbreaks of light rain, lows 7 to 10 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY should continue rather mild with fog and some rain at times, and the risk of an interval of stronger winds, details still rather uncertain. Temperatures around 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... That cold air that was trying to reach Ireland is making easier progress west from Iceland towards south Greenland, and now it seems more content to stay up there and allow Ireland to continue to enjoy relatively mild temperatures towards the end of the month. There are signs of a more active stormy interval towards the first few days of December.

My local weather on Thursday was mostly cloudy with a few sporadic showers that seemed like melting hail, big rain drops but not very long lasting, and the highs were about 7 C.

It is possible that I will be on the road at forecast time Saturday morning (your time) so this forecast will perhaps not be updated until later Saturday or even Sunday.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 19 November, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Milder with a few brighter intervals but mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light rain turning a bit heavier this evening in the north, highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Drizzle or light rain, mild, lows 5 to 8 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, showers, highs 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY ... Very mild, some rain at times, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Heavy rain developing (15-25 mm likely), highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, fresher with some heavy and possibly thundery showers, highs 8 to 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Colder, mixed wintry showers possible on hills, highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat milder towards the end of next weekend again, rain by Sunday into Monday, then more cold days in the last week of November with some possibility of snow or sleet in northwest winds. Highs only around 5 C.

My weather while travelling was cloudy and fairly mild, highs reaching 7 C, now back on the coast where it has been raining for part of the day and quite mild, near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 20 November, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, just a few sprinkles of light rain for most of the day but a band of steadier rain will arrive in the west around mid-day, amounts only 2-4 mm. This will break up as it moves further east. Mild with highs around 12 or 13 C (14 C possible in south).

TONIGHT ... Very mild with a little rain, fog and mist. Lows 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY ... Very mild, outbreaks of rain becoming heavier by afternoon in the south, potential for 10 mm by evening there, highs 12 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain or showers, turning slightly cooler with highs 9 to 11 C except in the south and southeast where it will remain very mild (12 to 14 C).

THURSDAY ... Becoming quite windy by afternoon and evening (SW 50-80 km/hr) and turning colder, from early in the day for Connacht and west Ulster, to mid-afternoon in south Leinster, as rain or showers take on more of a wintry mixture with elevation, in slowly falling temperatures from near 9 C in the morning in Leinster, to 5 C by evening, and from near 5 C in the west to around 2 C by evening.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, wintry showers, cold. Morning lows zero to 3 C and afternoon highs 6 to 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and cold, wintry showers, lows near -2 C and highs near 6 C.

SUNDAY ... Sharp frost (lows near -4 C) followed by increasing cloud, staying rather cold, rain or sleet by evening (could have snow in this mix too).

MONDAY ... Briefly a little milder with rain, then turning cold again later in the day, highs about 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Most of next week looks rather cold with the chance of isolated wintry showers each day in brisk northerly winds, highs near 5 C and slight air frosts at night, snow more likely on hills but could spread at times to coastal areas in Leinster and Ulster, north Connacht.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with heavy rain (and heavy mountain snow, glad not to be driving those roads today). Highs reached about 8 C at sea level.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 21 November, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Very mild with rain at times, some brighter intervals possible later, as temperatures reach 14 or 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Fog, mist and light to moderate rain developing, 10 mm in some places, lows 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and continued mild except for parts of the northwest where it will begin to turn somewhat colder, outbreaks of rain with 10 to 20 mm possible, highs 10 to 12 C (except near 8 C northwest).

THURSDAY ... Windy and turning much colder, wintry showers likely, some snow on hills in both northwest and later in the southeast as well. Temperatures falling steadily to around 2 to 5 C. There may be an interval of very strong westerly winds around Connacht and west Ulster, gusting to 90 or 100 km/hr, with this sleety mix.

FRIDAY ... Windy and cold with wintry showers, some snow on hills, and risk of an interval of steady wet snow or sleet in the southeast by evening as low pressure moves past into southern Britain. Lows 0 to 3 C and highs 5 to 7 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold with wintry showers, blustery at times in northwest winds. Highs only 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Sharp frosts then increasing cloud, cold. Lows -4 to -1 C and highs about 5 or 6 C. Sleet or wet snow by evening.

MONDAY ... Sleet or a cold rain for a time, highs near 7 C, turning much colder again late in the day.

OUTLOOK ... Very cold for several more days, nothing really mild shows up on the charts for two weeks although temperatures remain in the marginal zone for snow to accumulate in any showers, at least near sea level. I wouldn't say this looks like 2010 but it's probably going to be the coldest late November or early December weather since then. There's no guarantee of snow in all locations, just some scattered falls that will be partly dependent on elevation, and partly a function of what time of day fronts pass any given location (more chance of snow in the overnight and morning hours).

My local weather on Monday was overcast with a little light rain and highs around 8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 22 November, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Very mild air is now confined to the south coast counties and will hang on there until early afternoon with temperatures steady near 14 C. Southerly winds of about 50-70 km/hr will ease in this warm sector and the mildness will end when winds switch around to northeasterly. Slightly cooler air is pressing south into counties from Limerick to Dublin on those northeast winds (rather light), with temperatures likely to remain in the 8-10 C most of the day, as heavy rain trends to drizzle before ending tonight (a further 5-15 mm will fall). Further north, it will turn colder more steadily and temperatures will level off near 5 C, with light rain perhaps turning to sleet on some hills.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, with strong southwest to west winds developing around midnight, followed quickly by wintry showers as it turns very cold across most of the north and west, with lows near 1 C. Further east and south, lows closer to 3 C with any showers probably staying rain but with some sleet possible.

THURSDAY ... Windy and turning much colder, wintry showers likely, some snow on hills in both northwest and later in the southeast as well. Temperatures falling steadily to around 2 to 5 C by morning and not recovering much later (3 to 7 C). There may be an interval of very strong westerly winds around Connacht and west Ulster, gusting to 90 or 100 km/hr, with this sleety mix.

Some parts of Connacht and Ulster could have wintry driving conditions especially at elevations above 150 metres, with lying snow possible. These conditions could hit other places too, but will not persist as long. Another hazard is likely to be what the met service have termed "dazzling sunshine" -- if you're driving into that, you might find it difficult to see what's ahead, especially (from my own experience) when you activate your windscreen fluid, that can make for a total temporary blinding effect, better to do that when it's not dazzling.

The strong winds will quickly push through to the east coast and almost all counties will have some period of strong westerly gusts as this colder air rushes in.

FRIDAY ... Morning frosts, then windy and cold with wintry showers, some snow on hills, and risk of an interval of steady wet snow or sleet in the southeast by evening as low pressure moves past into southern Britain. Lows -1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 7 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold with wintry showers, blustery at times in northwest winds. Highs only 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Sharp frosts then increasing cloud, cold. Lows -4 to -1 C and highs about 5 or 6 C. Sleet or wet snow possible in west by evening.

MONDAY ... Sleet or a cold rain for a time, possibly some accumulating snow inland across central and northern counties, highs 5 to 7 C, but turning much colder again during the day, back down to 2 to 4 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Quite cold most of next week, highs generally 4 to 8 C with frosts quite widespread, occasionally some wintry showers and snow on hills.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with light rain and rather mild with highs pushing above 10 C by evening. Very mild air is spreading in from the southwest and we're expecting a high near 15 C later.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 23 November, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Windy and turning much colder, wintry showers likely, some snow on hills in both northwest and later in the southeast as well. Temperatures will not recover very much from current values of 2 to 5 C (around 7 C near Atlantic coasts and south coast) and there will be a wind chill factor making it feel close to zero C. There will be an interval of very strong westerly winds around Connacht and west Ulster, gusting to 90 or 100 km/hr, with this sleety mix. These strong winds have already hit the west coast and will make rapid progress to reach the east coast before noon.

Some parts of Connacht and Ulster could have wintry driving conditions especially at elevations above 150 metres, with lying snow possible. These conditions could hit other places too, but will not persist as long. Another hazard is likely to be what the met service have termed "dazzling sunshine" -- if you're driving into that, you might find it difficult to see what's ahead, especially (from my own experience) when you activate your windscreen fluid, that can make for a total temporary blinding effect, better to do that when it's not dazzling.

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers dying out slowly tonight, with some clearing especially in Leinster and east Munster, leading to morning frosts, lows -1 to 3 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and cold with wintry showers, some snow on hills, and risk of an interval of steady wet snow or sleet in the southeast by evening as low pressure moves past into southern Britain. Lows -1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 7 C. Winds northwest 40-70 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold with wintry showers, blustery at times in northwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs only 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Sharp frosts then increasing cloud, cold although feeling a bit milder mostly thanks to lighter winds. Lows -4 to -1 C and highs about 6 to 9 C. Sleet or wet snow possible in west by evening.

MONDAY ... Sleet or a cold rain for a time, possibly some accumulating snow inland across central and northern counties, highs 6 to 9 C, but turning much colder again during the day, back down to 2 to 4 C as winds turn more to the northwest then north (40-60 km/hr).

TUESDAY ... Windy and very cold, wintry showers possible in north and east. Highs only 3 to 7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Quite cold most of next week, highs generally 4 to 8 C with frosts quite widespread, occasionally some wintry showers and snow on hills. A little milder as December starts, and perhaps back to very mild before mid-December.

My local weather on Wednesday was record-breaking warm with a high near 19 C. Several places broke records set almost a century ago, by 4 or 5 degrees. There was also some light rain at times with brighter intervals. We may have one more day like that today, then back to more normal late November temperatures (8 to 11 C).

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 24 November, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A cold but sunny start to the day in parts of the east and south, watch for patches of black ice wherever temperatures have fallen below freezing, most likely in valleys in central Munster into south Leinster. Wintry showers are advancing inland from Galway Bay and it will become windy and cold with wintry showers moving through central and northern counties, with some snow on hills. Highs only reaching about 5 to 7 C. Winds northwest 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Frequent wintry showers continuing in the northwest, some snow possible on hills, clear intervals with widespread frost elsewhere, lows near 2 C with the showers and -4 to -1 C elsewhere.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold with wintry showers, blustery at times in northwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs only 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Sharp frosts then increasing cloud, cold although feeling a bit milder mostly thanks to lighter winds. Lows -4 to -1 C and highs about 6 to 9 C. Sleet or wet snow possible in west by evening with rain or drizzle near sea level as temperatures stay around 5 C on Atlantic coasts by evening, dropping back to frosty levels further south and east.

MONDAY ... Sleet or a cold rain for a time, possibly some accumulating snow inland across central and northern counties, highs 6 to 9 C, but turning much colder again during the day, back down to 2 to 4 C as winds turn more to the northwest then north (40-60 km/hr).

TUESDAY ... Windy and very cold, wintry showers possible in north and east. Highs only 3 to 7 C. Winds northwest to north 40 to 70 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and very cold, wintry showers perhaps more frequent in Leinster now as winds more north to northeast at times, probably a mixed fall from streamers (as often the case) with rain, hail, sleet and snow all occurring but generally separated by elevation. Highs about 5 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Several more cold days are expected although with less wind due to closer approach of a high pressure centre. High temperatures generally 4 to 7 with sharp frosts likely each morning. Slight moderation is likely into early December.

My local weather on Thursday turned sunny and mild with highs of about 15 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 25 November, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy, cold with wintry showers, including some 2-4 cm falls of snow on higher ground in north and central counties, blustery at times in northwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs only 4 to 7 C. Wintry showers may show up almost anywhere later today before they start to diminish this evening, but south Leinster and the south coast of Munster is more likely to see only rain or hail showers if any, some places will remain dry.

TONIGHT ... Some further wintry showers in Connacht and Ulster dying out after midnight, clear intervals developing further south with a sharp frost likely, lows between -4 and +1 C.

SUNDAY ... Sharp frosts then increasing cloud, cold although feeling a bit milder mostly thanks to lighter winds, highs about 6 to 9 C. Sleet or wet snow possible in west by evening with rain or drizzle near sea level as temperatures stay around 5 C on Atlantic coasts by evening, dropping back to frosty levels further south and east.

MONDAY ... Sleet or a cold rain for a time during the early morning, possibly some accumulating snow inland across central and northern counties, then some clearing but further outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow by afternoon; highs 6 to 9 C early in the day, but turning much colder again during the day, back down to 2 to 4 C as winds turn more to the northwest then north (40-60 km/hr).

TUESDAY ... Windy and very cold, wintry showers possible in northwest and near the east coast (these may largely stay over the Irish Sea due to northerly winds). Lows -2 to +2 C and highs only 3 to 7 C. Winds northwest to north 40 to 70 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and very cold, wintry showers perhaps more frequent in Leinster now as winds turn more north to northeast at times, probably a mixed fall from streamers (as often the case) with rain, hail, sleet and snow all occurring but generally separated by elevation. Lows -3 to +1 C and highs about 5 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Several more cold days are expected although with less wind due to closer approach of a high pressure centre. High temperatures generally 4 to 7 with sharp frosts likely each morning. The frequency and coverage of wintry showers will likely decrease but each day could bring a few here or there. Slight moderation is likely into early December but the charts stay away from anything much above 7 or 8 C for quite some time.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with light rain and it turned somewhat colder with highs near 8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 26 November, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some outbreaks of light rain (sleet on higher ground at first) will move through central counties this morning and early afternoon, but a more organized band of moderate rain will arrive this evening and move through all regions. Highs 6 to 10 C with higher values near west coast.

TONIGHT ... Milder than recent nights, rain and moderate westerly winds, temperatures steady near 6 C. About 10-15 mm of rain likely.

MONDAY ... Becoming windy and turning cold again, after the first band of rain moves south, winds west to northwest 50-70 km/hr, wintry showers developing, temperatures steady 6 to 8 C at first, then falling slowly to near 2 C.

TUESDAY ... Some clear intervals, windy and cold from early morning, lows about -2 inland and +2 C near coasts, then variable cloud, windy and cold with wintry showers near north-facing coasts. Winds northwest to northerly 40-70 km/hr, highs only 4 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Scattered morning frost, then breezy and cold with a few more wintry showers, some of them heavy near east coast and in Ulster, north Connacht. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 4 to 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated wintry showers, cold. Sharp frosts with lows about -4 to -1 C, highs about 5 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy intervals, a little milder, lows near -2 C and highs near 8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slightly milder for a few days into early December, relatively dry for the time of year, and then turning quite cold for a few days.

My local weather on Saturday was windy and there was some light rain at times, with a high near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 27 November, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rather windy and turning colder again, showers becoming wintry at least on some higher terrain in north, and also a few heavier showers with hail and thunder. These will be more frequent in the west and north but not entirely absent from east or south either. Highs about 8 or 9 C but temperatures falling to near 2 C by late afternoon away from Atlantic coasts. Winds west to northwest 50-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Windy, continuing showery with more wintry mix reaching somewhat lower elevations, lows -1 to +3 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will bring a cold northerly interval with isolated wintry showers feeding in from the North Atlantic and Irish Sea. Winds probably too close to northwest (rather than due north) to bring a lot of activity to Leinster but a few intervals of north-northeast winds may allow streamers there to move inland. However, the prevalent weather for most will be partly cloudy and dry with gusty winds (NW-NNE) 40-70 km/hr, dying out overnight to allow some scattered frosts. Lows each day -3 to +2 C and highs 5 to 9 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will likely turn somewhat milder with more cloud, not much rain expected but some drizzle in onshore west to northwest winds. Highs 8 to 10 C and less widespread frost, lows generally a bit higher than zero C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for another cold northerly spell around the week following the weekend of 2-3 December.

Please note, I am going to be off-line for several days due to a move and associated service interruptions, and may not be able to update forecasts very often, so perhaps you'll be seeing some other forecasters in the coming days.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 30 November, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

Hello, just a brief update as I have a few minutes to study the charts ... it looks set to remain dry and cold for most over the next four days, with a very slow moderating trend that will lead to considerably milder weather around 4-7 December (highs will then be closer to 10 C). The main forecast challenge for the next few days will be how much cloud will be around overnight, as there would be potential for some sharp frosts without cloud to keep temperatures up slightly.

The most significant detail is that a strong southward-moving low will develop around Thursday 7 December and will allow much colder air to sweep in from the north by late that day or early Friday 8th. That could involve some locally heavy wintry showers and snow on hills, lasting for 2-3 days. Another brief warmup would then be followed by another cold spell, the overall circulation is northwesterly but varies from westerly in mild spells to northerly in colder interludes. The net temperature trend will be below normal as there are more cold days than mild days in the mix (if the models are right).

The weather here has been mild and wet for several days and is about to turn a little colder. Well, that's all from me until maybe 4th or 5th of December, I hope the forum forecasters will keep an eye on developments and update you especially concerning the deeper cold spell in a week or so.

sryanbruen

Friday, 1 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

Happy December! Here's to a great Winter ahead.

TODAY .... Mostly dry with plenty of sunny spells before cloud unveils itself from the north but quite cold in light to moderate northerly winds. The odd shower is possible in the north and northeast of the country. Highs of only 5-7c.

TONIGHT .... Mostly cloudy conditions will prevent frost in many places. Some southern parts of the country could have frost though where skies will be clear. Dry otherwise with minimums of -1 to 4c.

SATURDAY .... Winds veering more to a northwesterly direction giving off to a somewhat milder and cloudy day. Mostly dry like today again but the chance of the odd patchy drizzle in the north and northeast or where cloud will thicken. There is a small chance for sunny spells in the south. Maximums of 6-10c.

SUNDAY .... Somewhat milder again but otherwise very similar to Saturday with mostly cloudy and dry conditions in light northwesterlies. Cloud could break up Sunday night bringing frost. Maximums of 8-11c.

MONDAY .... Temperatures around normal for the time of year with the chance of some bright spells developing but again mostly cloudy and dry and winds veering to a westerly. Maximums of 8-11c. Frost possible again Monday night as skies clear.

TUESDAY .... Much brighter day with sunny intervals spreading to the majority of the country. Temperatures somewhat down but still around normal for the time of year after a frosty start. Maximums of 6-10c.

OUTLOOK .... High pressure continues to be a large influence over our shores for Wednesday before an area of low pressure looks like pushing across us on Thursday. The majority of the heavy rain will be in Scotland but some parts could have up to 20mm with this low. The models then have the low stalling in the North Sea bringing a northerly down the country but with the high pressure very close by. This means more cold, sunny and dry conditions for us. However, it's all a long way off so focus on the here and now.

sryanbruen

Saturday, 2 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY .... Generally overcast with mist forming in places. Mostly dry but with the chance of some patchy rain or drizzle in the north and northeast or where cloud is at its thickest. Temperatures around average for the time of year in light to moderate northwesterly breezes. Maximums of 8-10c.

TONIGHT .... Cloudy conditions will persist tonight and leave the majority of places frost free although the chance of some clearer skies in the south. Mostly dry again but with the chance of some drizzle in the north. Minimums of 1-5c.

SUNDAY .... Misty and overcast for the majority of the country. Some sunny intervals are possible in the west and south for a time. Maximums of 8-10c in light to moderate northwesterlies again.

MONDAY .... Cloud looks like breaking up on Monday more widely but still a lot of mist about. Maximums of 8-11c in a light westerly breeze.

TUESDAY .... Frosty to start in the morning but generally sunny through most of the day. Maximums of 7-10c. Rain looks like heading our way earlier than expected on Tuesday night holding up minimums as well as becoming windy.

WEDNESDAY .... Increasingly wet and windy. Milder too at 9-12c.

OUTLOOK .... After a wet Wednesday and Thursday, a northerly will take place bringing temperatures back down to below average after a brief mild interval. The FI charts have been showing this low as a snowstorm or a snow event. However, I would not put my money on it at this stage. Things could change completely until then. What I can say though is that wintry showers and frost are a highly likely possibility during this northerly later next week if it comes off.

sryanbruen

Sunday, 3 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY .... Mostly cloudy with the odd sunny intervals possible in the south and east. Patchy rain in the thickest of the cloud particularly in Ulster and Leinster. Winds initially a northwesterly but veering to a light westerly. Maximums of 8-11c.

TONIGHT .... Somewhat mild as it continues to be cloudy but dry. Ground frost is possible in clearer skies towards the southern regions. Minimums of 0-5c.

MONDAY .... Light westerly breezes will continue to bring in quite a bit of cloud across the country. Easterly regions will have the chance of sunny intervals. Maximums of 8-11c.

TUESDAY .... It looks like Tuesday is now going to be a similar day to the weekend and Monday, mostly cloudy but dry. The chance of some patchy rain or drizzle along Atlantic regions in moderate westerlies. Becoming windier as the day goes on. Along with this, getting increasingly wet in the west. Maximums of 9-10c.

WEDNESDAY .... Wet and windy throughout with longer spells of rain certainly possible of up to 20-30mm.. There's a chance of the rain turning to snow in the north as the winds turn to a northerly direction. Maximums of 8-12c initially but minimums could reach below 0c by the end of the day in clearer skies.

THURSDAY .... Cold and mostly sunny. Wintry showers to the west and north in quite breezy northerlies. Maximums of only 3-6c. Very frost starts and ends to the day.

OUTLOOK .... Staying cold and sunny with some scattered wintry showers for a time before winds veer to a northwesterly and then eventually the winds turn back to a northerly again. The weather is very changeable at the moment but it's generally cold.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 5 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

Thanks to sryanbruen for providing some forecasts while I was off-line this past week. My move has been completed and full internet service restored, so just in time for some very active weather ...

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, outbreaks of drizzle or light rain but not much accumulation (1-3 mm), mild with highs reaching 11 or 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, fog and mist, drizzle, mild, lows near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Overcast with periods of rain, blustery south to southwest winds increasing to 60-90 km/hr, mild, highs 11 to 13 C. About 10 mm of rain expected.

THURSDAY ... Windy and turning much colder from early morning west and north, later morning hours east and south. Temperatures will be near 4 C in the morning but will either stall there or fall slowly to about 1 or 2 C in parts of the north. Bands of wintry showers will readily turn to snow on hills, and a mixture of rain, hail and sleet at lower elevations, but there will also be bright sunshine at times. Winds becoming northwest to north 50-80 km/hr, so feeling more like -5 C in the wind.

FRIDAY ... Very cold, isolated bands of wintry showers with snow quite likely in these, morning lows -3 to +2 C and afternoon highs 3 to 7 C. Winds northwest to north about 50-70 km/hr adding quite a chill.

SATURDAY ... Sunny with increasing cloud after a heavy morning frost, lows -5 to -1 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy, rain, sleet or possibly wet snow in some parts, highs 5 to 10 C with milder values in the southwest.

OUTLOOK ... Very cold and unsettled early next week, which could lead to a snowfall event if low pressure tracking south of Ireland is not too distant (and if so, some isolated snowfalls in onshore northeast winds). This colder spell will gradually relent to considerably milder weather between the 17th and 21st (approximately) but it may then turn cold again just before Christmas.

After moving 700 km inland from the Vancouver area to a small town in south-central B.C., my "local weather" is going to be a bit different now. So far it has been dry and cold here, with highs near 2 or 3 C and overnight lows near -2 C. I am located at about 500m a.s.l. near a fairly large lake, surrounded by high mountains. The snow line is just about 550m so there is snow on all surrounding hills, just staying "green" at this lower elevation for now.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for wintry weather including strong wind gusts and wintry showers that may include locally heavy hail, sleet or snow, with sudden onset late tonight in north and west, during the morning east and south.

TODAY ...Windy and very mild with further outbreaks of light rain becoming heavy at times by late afternoon and evening. Winds south to southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, 5-10 mm rainfalls and highs 13 or 14 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy and turning much colder in the north and west, as winds veer rapidly to northwest at 60 to 90 km/hr. Somewhat milder with further rain in east and south. Lows 2 to 4 C in north and west, 5 to 9 C east and south.

THURSDAY ... Windy and very cold, bands of wintry showers likely but sunny intervals between them, winds northwest 70 to 110 km/hr and highs only 4 to 7 C. Some heavy falls of sleet or snow may develop especially over higher parts of the north and west, but amounts in east and south may be much less. Risk of thundery showers of hail, sleet or snow. Some parts of Ulster, Connacht, and north Leinster could have difficult road travel, and aviation interests will be dealing with icing and wind shear so expect travel delays at least over the north and west lasting into Friday. Western Scotland, the Isle of Man, Wales and southwest England could also see wintry conditions. (all thanks to storm "Caroline").

FRIDAY ... Continued windy and cold, isolated bands of wintry showers with heavy snow squalls possible in some parts of the north and west. Morning lows -2 to +2 C and afternoon highs only 3 to 7 C, winds northwest 50 to 90 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Sunny with increasing cloud, sharp frosts in morning, winds not as strong, but still very cold. Lows -5 to -2 C and highs 4 to 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Overcast, somewhat milder, at least in south, outbreaks of rain or sleet (more likely in north), lows 3 to 6 C and highs 7 to 10 C. Moderate westerly winds.

OUTLOOK ... Colder again from Monday 11th on, windy at times, wintry showers mostly in north and northwest but sometimes more widespread. Highs generally in 3 to 7 C range. A rather volatile pattern will then develop with much milder air returning briefly around 20th. Stay tuned for Christmas outlooks, would not be surprised if this roller coaster ride intensifies with strong winds at times.

Meanwhile, very tranquil calm but cloudy weather in the mountains of B.C. on Tuesday with milder highs near 8 C. Very cold air is flooding south into central and eastern North America and lake effect snow squalls will become widespread.
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M.T. Cranium

Thursday, December 7, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for wintry weather including strong wind gusts and wintry showers that may include locally heavy hail, sleet or snow, with sudden onset soon in north and west, during the later morning hours east and south.


TODAY ... Windy and very cold, bands of wintry showers likely but sunny intervals between them, winds northwest 70 to 110 km/hr and highs only 4 to 7 C. In most locations temperatures will fall to 2 to 4 C as a cold front sweeps south and there will be limited recovery despite some sunshine in places. Some heavy falls of sleet or snow may develop especially over higher parts of the north and west, but amounts in east and south may be much less. Risk of thundery showers of hail, sleet or snow. Some parts of Ulster, Connacht, and north Leinster could have difficult road travel, and aviation interests will be dealing with icing and wind shear so expect travel delays at least over the north and west lasting into Friday. Western Scotland, the Isle of Man, Wales and southwest England could also see wintry conditions. (all thanks to storm "Caroline").

TONIGHT ... Windy and cold, wintry showers with some heavy falls of snow possible over higher parts of Ulster and Connacht, clear intervals in south and east, frost developing in sheltered places, lows -3 to +2 C.

FRIDAY ... Continued windy and cold, isolated bands of wintry showers with heavy snow squalls possible in some parts of the north and west. Morning lows -3 to +2 C and afternoon highs only 3 to 7 C, winds northwest 50 to 90 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Sunny with increasing cloud, sharp frosts in morning, winds not as strong, but still very cold. Lows -5 to -2 C and highs 4 to 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Overcast, somewhat milder in the early morning hours, at least in south, outbreaks of rain (south) or sleet (more likely in north), lows 3 to 6 C and highs 7 to 10 C early in the day, slowly falling temperatures past mid-morning to reach 3 to 5 C by afternoon. Moderate westerly winds 40-70 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Colder again from Monday 11th on, windy at times, wintry showers mostly in north and northwest but sometimes more widespread. Highs generally in 3 to 7 C range. A rather volatile pattern will then develop with much milder air returning briefly around 20th. Stay tuned for Christmas outlooks, would not be surprised if this roller coaster ride intensifies with strong winds at times.

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy and rather cold in valleys, but sunshine could be found in higher terrain where there is also about 30 cms of snow compared to zero snow cover in valleys and 5 cms in lower slopes. Highs about 2 C most places.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 8 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Windy and very cold with mixed wintry showers continuing, heavier and more widespread over the northern half of the country, with significant snowfalls on higher terrain. Longer sunny intervals will be found in the south, with Dublin and probably other cities getting a bit of both these regimes, intermittent light wintry showers and sunny spells. Highs will only reach 3 or 4 C in the north and 7 or 8 C near the south coast, about 5 or 6 C from Dublin to Galway. Winds northwest to north at about 40 to 70 km/hr will add a significant chill to those readings and make it feel about -2 C in the wind.

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers easing and retreating to near coasts in the northwest, otherwise clearing with a sharp frost developing, lows -5 to -2 C. Widespread icy roads especially secondary routes less likely to receive much traffic until morning. Where snow has accumulated, overnight lows could fall even lower to near -8 C. Watch for patchy freezing fog later tonight and towards dawn Saturday, in the vicinity of snow-covered terrain, especially around streams or small lakes.

SATURDAY ... Sunny with increasing high cloud for most regions, thicker cloud cover will move into the southwest followed by rain or sleet (snow on hills) by evening. Highs 2 to 6 C north and east, 6 to 10 C south and west. These will occur late afternoon or evening as the frost may take a long time to disappear during the mid-day hours especially in shady areas.

SUNDAY ... A real forecast challenge looms here as a frontal band will set up across the country during the early morning to mid-day hours. Heavy snow may develop in parts of Connacht, the midlands and north Leinster, extending into Ulster, with the potential for 5-10 cms or more, as temperatures stall out around 1 C. Rain or sleet will push into parts of the south where it will be somewhat milder (near 5 C). This rain or sleet may turn to snow as the frontal zone sags south during the afternoon, with the heavier snow further north moving into the inland southeast. Some coastal areas may not see much snow but inland it could be disruptive. Details should become clearer as we approach the event. Winds will be light westerly to the south of the frontal zone and moderate northeast to north to the north of the zone. As these north-northeast winds intensify during the late afternoon and evening, heavy sleet or snow could develop around Dublin (although it could be a cold rain near the coast).

MONDAY ... With all of the wintry mix now moving into France and southern England, skies will clear in most parts of Ireland with bands of wintry showers still active, possibly heavy near the Irish Sea coasts, and it will remain very cold with lows near -3 C and highs near +3 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy and cold although some moderation expected, lows near -4 C and highs near 5 or 6 C.

OUTLOOK ... Another frontal zone mixed precipitation event is possible around Wednesday then more cold weather for a few days with signs of a warming trend around the 20th to near Christmas Day. I don't have a lot of confidence in the models past mid-week but if these trends are right it could also get quite windy at times with the milder weather in the second week of the outlook period.

My local weather (in the mountains now) has been dull and cold as we are trapped under a sprawling high with a strong inversion at about 1,000 metres, so to find any sunshine one needs to drive through mountain passes, down in the valleys it is overcast with the cloud ceiling just above the valley floor, rather like being in a cloud prison -- and the temperatures hover near 1 C. Very cold air is spreading into all of eastern and central North America and is also developing in valleys of the far west, only the west coast is now mild. Aside from some lake effect snow, it is quite a dry pattern coast to coast.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 9 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Increasing cloud for north and east, watch for appearance of solar halo, some locations in valleys may retain frost to mid-day, overcast thicker for south and west leading to outbreaks of drizzle or light rain by late afternoon, all regions expecting a cold east to southeast wind 40-60 km/hr to develop during the late morning southwest and afternoon elsewhere. Feeling very cold with highs 4 to 8 C, mildest in southwest.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming moderate or heavy for a short interval across west Munster as southeast winds rapidly veer to westerly 50-80 km/hr, 15 to 25 mm likely in Kerry, Cork and adjacent parts of Clare, Tipps and Waterford. Rain will spread about as far north as Galway to Birr to Kilkenny before changing to sleet and snow further north, except that some coastal parts of Leinster may have rain or sleet persisting near sea level. North and central parts of Ulster may remain dry. Winds from southeast will back to northeast where it snows, and will be light south to westerly in the rain. Lows 3 to 6 C in southwest, 1 to 3 C from north Clare to south Leinster and near the Irish Sea coasts, and -1 to +2 C further north.

SUNDAY ... The rain-snow line will likely stall for the morning hours from about Ennis to Kilkenny and looping around the higher ground in Leinster to include portions of the east coast (in the rain zone). Heavy snow is possible north of this dividing line with 10-15 cms in parts of south Connacht, midlands, inland southeast. Snow amounts will taper off to 5 cms in south Donegal and border counties and this will transition to all rain near the east coast. Winds in the snowfall zone will remain northeast 30-50 km/hr but the snow will probably be too wet to drift much. Some portions of the falling snow may melt reducing actual ground accumulations but this will be less of a factor at higher elevations. Specifically for Dublin region, expect some snow on hills and sleet at lower elevations that may be mostly a cold rain near the coast (8 C Irish Sea will moderate the lower levels of a cold onshore flow).

Highs during the day will range from zero or 1 C in the snowfall zone, and further north also, to 3 C from south Clare to Wexford and up the east coast, to 6 C (but falling slowly by afternoon) in west Munster. West Munster may see some snow later in the afternoon mostly on hills. The southeast will also finish the day with some snow but accumulations may be marginal.

Road travel may become difficult from early morning hours in south Connacht and midlands, and during the day in the inland southeast. The worst conditions may be in zones near the rain-snow divide where pockets of freezing rain are possible, especially in valleys.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... Windy and cold with remnant flurries, some clear intervals, and snow showers in some northern counties as winds turn north to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows -6 to -2 C. Widespread icy roads are likely to persist and secondary roads will be treacherous for the morning commute.

MONDAY ... Windy and cold with isolated snow showers, winds northwest to north about 50 km/hr and highs near 5 C at best, feeling more like -2 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud after a sharp frost, milder by afternoon, a band of light rain expected to race east across the country by evening. Lows -6 to -3 C, highs near 7 C by late afternoon.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will bring back wintry conditions with occasional outbreaks of light snow, some sunshine each day in the mix, and highs only 2 to 6 C with sharp frosts each morning.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for another frontal zone event around Saturday into early Sunday (16th-17th) but details obviously not too clear yet, but after that a milder interval leading into the Christmas holiday period with highs closer to 10 C at times with southwest winds and rain. The bulk of the wind and rain may be several days before Christmas and better weather conditions may attend the holiday itself.

My local weather, if one can use the term for such stagnant conditions, was overcast and very chilly with a high of about zero C. Meanwhile, light snow is spreading up the east coast from an offshore frontal wave and all major cities in the northeast can expect a dusting to perhaps 5 cms during the weekend. A more active system will follow from the Midwest around Monday-Tuesday and it will remain very cold in all these eastern regions with temperatures as much as 15 degrees below normal at times. Chicago for example may be close to -10 C on Tuesday.

Watch for updates on the developing snowfall, I could imagine some shifts in the details as models get better data towards the onset. The details I have in this forecast are by no means "carved in stone."

M.T. Cranium

Update -- Winter Storm Alert for Tonight and Sunday

I just reviewed the guidance and the forecast, if anything, the developing snow and ice storm situation appears marginally further south than suggested earlier, and I neglected to place an alert in the forecast although given the high state of awareness from the public forecast I don't imagine that caused much trouble.

So consider this update an alert, the orange or level 2 status seems appropriate in general but locally a red or level 3 outcome is possible, if you're located near the axis of heaviest snow or in a location that gets any freezing rain, it may be more of "take action" than "be prepared." To be more precise, take no action because your best bet will be to stay indoors and wait for conditions to improve, perhaps salt your walkways in advance and have your vehicle in a place where, once started up, it can move forward (like not at the base of a hilly climb, preferably, even by Monday morning I doubt that roads maintenance will have reached many secondary streets or residential areas).

So, here's the actual forecast as I see it now, conditions will be quite variable and especially around greater Dublin not all readers will get the same outcome.

The main portion of the storm will move in rapidly tonight and spread rain at first into the west, south and midlands. At about a line from mid-Clare to south Kilkenny, this rain will begin to turn to sleet and then snow a bit further north, so that accumulations will begin around midnight from Galway to Carlow. The further northward advance of this snow may be limited to about Sligo to central Meath with smaller amounts in flurries further north than that.

The snowfall will accumulate to 10-20 cms across a wide swath of central and southeast Ireland overnight and during the morning hours Sunday. Rain will continue in west Munster at least near sea level, but the rain-snow line will drift south all day and eventually almost all places in the south will finish off their storm event with a covering of snow (perhaps only 1-3 cms near south coast).

Now for Dublin, the storm will produce a variety of conditions, with sea level to 50 m elevations more likely to get either a cold rain or sleet, 50 to 150 m mixtures of rain, sleet and snow, and above 150 m mostly snow. Heavy snow is also likely in Kildare and north Wicklow, west Wicklow and Laois.

The greatest depth possible with this set-up is in the 25 to 30 cm range but I think most reports in the snowfall zone will be 15 to 20 cm, partly due to a little melting of the falling snow and compacting, but also it could be mixed with freezing drizzle at times (taking moisture away from the snow totals).

A real concern is that a band of freezing rain could develop near the frontal boundary, if so, watch for very icy conditions by Sunday morning in some parts of Clare, north Limerick, Tipps, Kilkenny, north Waterford, north Wexford and at some intermediate elevations around the Wicklow and Dublin mountains. Be aware in other counties further north in the snow zone that a base of ice may exist under the fallen snow, with the onset of the snowfall perhaps being an opportunity for freezing rain or drizzle.

Next update is likely to be at the usual morning forecast time.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 10 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Heavy wet snow will continue in parts of south Connacht, the midlands and the inland southeast, with potential final accumulations over 10 cms, and may extend further south by mid-day or afternoon as rain is pushed to the south coast and then offshore in a northeasterly wind flow that may increase to 40-60 km/hr at times this afternoon especially near the secondary low approaching west Munster. Snow amounts near the south and southwest coasts may be marginal with a period of wet snow at the end of the rainfall, but inland some places could see 5 cms. Temperatures in the south will continue to fall slowly to reach about 2 C, elsewhere, they will remain steady in the 0 to 3 C range. The east coast presents a real challenge and may see alternating periods of wet snow, sleet and rain, but sticking snow will likely be reserved for hilly areas of south Dublin. A few streamers may also develop late this afternoon to affect coastal Dublin and Wicklow, and here again these may be rain, sleet or snow. Get the latest road information before setting out on any journeys today, especially through the zones of heavier snowfall. Some freezing drizzle may accompany snow at times adding further ice potential.

North of the snowfall zones in most of Ulster, light flurries may develop here and there with sunny intervals, and cold northeast winds, highs 2 to 4 C. Accumulating snow (or sleety rain in east) will probably retreat away from Ulster during the morning and will be clear of some parts of north-central Leinster by mid-day.

TONIGHT ... Windy and cold with remnant flurries, some clear intervals, and snow showers in some northern counties as winds turn north to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows -6 to -2 C. Widespread icy roads are likely to persist and secondary roads in some higher parts of Leinster and in the snowfall zones from today's forecast will be treacherous for the morning commute.

MONDAY ... Windy and cold with isolated snow showers, winds northwest to north about 50 km/hr and highs near 5 C at best, feeling more like -2 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud after a sharp frost, milder by afternoon, a band of light rain expected to race east across the country by evening. Lows -6 to -3 C, highs near 7 C by late afternoon.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and turning colder again with mixed wintry showers, westerly winds 50-80 km/hr, morning lows near 2 C and afternoon highs near 6 C.

THURSDAY ... Very cold with intervals of snow, 3 to 6 cms accumulations in some areas, details to be confirmed closer to the event, winds generally north to northeast 30 to 50 km/hr, highs only -1 to +3 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, cold but with a slight moderation, lows near -5 C and highs near 4 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for another frontal zone event around Saturday into early Sunday (16th-17th) but details obviously not too clear yet, but after that a milder interval leading into the Christmas holiday period with highs closer to 10 C at times with southwest winds and rain. The bulk of the wind and rain may be several days before Christmas and better weather conditions may attend the holiday itself thanks to higher pressure building up, this time with a slight easterly flow that may drop temperatures slightly each day through the holiday period.

My local weather on Saturday was once again overcast, calm and very chilly with temperatures steady near +1 C. For sunshine deprivation, we have to drive to the nearest mountain pass where the sun is shining above the thick blanket of valley cloud. Eastern North America has had some light snow and will see a steady colder trend for several days now.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 11 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for widespread icy roads and paths in central and eastern Ireland this morning, with some secondary roads dangerous or impassable in regions that had a heavy snowfall or a sharp frost overnight. Most main routes should be reasonably good with a few exceptions in higher parts of Connacht, but it will take some time for treatment or natural thawing to solve problems on less busy routes.

TODAY ... Somewhat milder in western counties in a northerly flow that is bringing in mixed wintry showers, mostly rain near sea level, sleet or snow higher up, moderate northerly winds, highs 4 to 7 C. Central and eastern counties will be more likely to stay dry with a few isolated wintry showers, some sunny breaks once any freezing fog dissipates (and this could take several hours in valleys over snow cover), and the hard frost slowly dissipates. Highs 2 to 6 C. Widespread icy roads this morning, drive with care (see my tips in the storm thread).

TONIGHT ... Occasional light wintry showers, partly cloudy and cold otherwise, lows in the range -6 to -2 C for most but -2 to +3 C in Atlantic counties.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, turning milder, intervals of light rain by afternoon, could be sleety on hills, highs 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Turning colder again with mixed wintry showers, moderate and sometimes blustery westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr, morning lows 2 to 4 C and temperatures steady or rising only slightly to 5 or 6 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, outbreaks of snow likely, but with some sunny intervals between snow showers, amounts 1 to 3 cms for many and 3 to 6 cms for a few higher parts of Ulster and Connacht. Very cold, morning lows -2 to +1 C and highs only 2 to 6 C. Moderate west veering to northwest winds stronger near Connacht coasts where gusts to 90 km/hr may develop later in the day.

FRIDAY ... Continued very cold with a few isolated wintry showers, lows -4 to -1 C and highs 4 to 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Most guidance shows a milder trend in southwest winds, although it may take one more slight battle between cold and mild air over the weekend of 16th and 17th to establish this trend. First looks at Christmas holiday charts show a rather stormy (mild) pattern, hoping that will change as Santa prefers it calm and crisp.

My local weather remains static like Groundhog Day with the low overcast and chilly near-freezing temperatures persisting in this valley, getting milder further west as the upper level ridge weakens a little. Very cold in the east with a snowfall event of about 15 cms developing later today across the lower Great Lakes into the inland northeast tonight. Looks as though Australia is the place to be, of course December there is June more or less, and today's charts show warm, sunny weather for most of the large cities, highs well into the 20s or low 30s. (I will report on Oz occasionally just to torment us all -- bear in mind that at forecast time, it is mid-afternoon same date there, and by this afternoon if you read this, it will be going on midnight and becoming tomorrow's date).

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 12 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A band of intermittent light rain (5-10 mm expected) will gradually cross the country during the mid-day hours and should be largely past the east coast by early this evening. Some sleet may fall on higher ground as the rain begins. But it will turn milder for most eastern counties with highs in all regions likely to be in the 7 to 10 C range. Moderate southwest winds at times will veer more to westerly and it may begin to clear for a while in western counties late this afternoon.

Note if you happen to be in Britain now or travelling there today, some snow-covered areas in central England have temperatures as low as -12 C this morning and there may be disruptive ice fog and severe cold all day in some parts of the west Midlands.

TONIGHT ... Stronger winds will develop (WSW 40-60 km/hr) with a few showers developing near the west coast. Lows 3 to 5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and colder with frequent showers, some with thunder and hail, and a few turning to snow on higher slopes, as temperatures stall in the 4 to 7 C range, with westerly winds 60-90 km/hr at times. About 3-5 mm of rain on average but some locally heavy downpours that could leave a slippery covering of hail on some roads.

THURSDAY ... Breezy and quite cold with passing mixed wintry showers, rain likely near sea level and sleet, hail or even snow higher up, hail could reach sea level in heavier showers, but there will also be some longer dry intervals for the south, with most of the wintry showers streaming in from the Atlantic on northwest to northerly winds of 40 to 60 km/hr. There may be an interval of stronger winds mid-afternoon to evening in Connacht with gusts to 90 km/hr. Accumulations of snow likely on hills in the northwest. Lows -1 to +2 C and highs 3 to 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy and continued quite cold, morning lows -2 to +2 C and highs 4 to 7 C, with isolated wintry showers, most likely near north and west coasts.

SATURDAY ... Some sunny intervals, cold, with sharp frosts and a slight moderation by afternoon, lows near -4 C inland and highs 5 to 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... From Sunday 17th on, a milder and increasingly unsettled regime will develop but there will be sharp cold fronts at times, at intervals of 2-3 days, so timing out the holiday forecast is rather pointless given the timing errors that are likely to occur even if the scenario itself is accurate. The current maps are showing colder days around 24th and 26th with Christmas Day and the 27th in milder sectors with strong southwest winds and heavy rainfalls. There could be some hill snow in this sort of pattern during the colder interludes, but very much of an active "roller coaster" pattern that we've seen before around the holidays in recent years.

My local weather continues calm and overcast with sunshine to be found higher up the local hills. It was a bit milder today with a high near 4 C. Heavy snow is developing for upstate New York and inland parts of New England later today and amounts of 10-20 cms are possible, coastal cities will see a bit of sleet perhaps but it will turn sharply colder tonight and Wednesday. Continuing with the Australian report, the eastern cities and most of the country will continue to bask in summery sunshine today and tomorrow with highs inland into the 30s, but a cold front approaching Adelaide could set off some heavy storms around there on Wednesday. These cells are currently near the WA-SA border along the GAB (mate). That area is largely unpopulated but anyone heading west towards Perth from Adelaide might run into a storm at some point later today.

I promise this is the extent of the foreign forecasting (for now).

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 13 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Windy and colder with frequent showers, some with thunder and hail, and a few turning to snow on higher slopes, as temperatures stall in the 4 to 7 C range, with westerly winds 60-90 km/hr at times. About 3-5 mm of rain on average but some locally heavy downpours that could leave a slippery covering of hail on some roads. By late afternoon and evening it may be cold enough (2 to 4 C) for more snow than rain out of these persistent showers, with 1-3 cm falls possible especially on higher terrain.

TONIGHT ... Very windy near exposed coasts and quite breezy everywhere else, cold with frequent wintry showers (more so inland and at elevation, mostly rain or hail near coasts). Lows 1-3 C. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr with isolated gusts to about 100 km/hr near west coast.

THURSDAY ... Breezy and quite cold with passing mixed wintry showers, rain likely near sea level and sleet, hail or even snow higher up, hail could reach sea level in heavier showers, but there will also be some longer dry intervals for the south, with most of the wintry showers streaming in from the Atlantic on northwest to northerly winds of 40 to 60 km/hr. There may be an interval of stronger winds mid-afternoon to evening in Connacht with gusts to 90 km/hr. Accumulations of snow likely on hills in the northwest. Highs 3 to 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy and continued quite cold, morning lows -2 to +2 C and highs 4 to 7 C, with isolated wintry showers, most likely near north and west coasts. Moderate northwest winds 40-60 km/hr adding chill, feeling close to zero C.

SATURDAY ... Some sunny intervals, cold, with sharp frosts and a slight moderation by afternoon, lows near -4 C inland and highs 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will become milder with some rain at times mostly on Sunday, then a pleasant dry interval around Monday possibly lasting into early Tuesday, a good time for getting out for visits and shopping perhaps. Highs near 8 C on Sunday and 12 C on Monday.

OUTLOOK for the week before Christmas calls for the milder weather to persist but with increasing chances of strong winds and occasionally blustery conditions with rain, highs most days near 10 C but there will be brief colder interludes as fronts pass, and some hill snow could briefly appear in those periods. The look of the charts becomes increasingly stormy towards the two or three days after Christmas Day with possible gusts over 110 km/hr indicated.

My local weather on Tuesday continued much the same as all the previous days since my move, overcast but a little milder with highs creeping up to about 5 C. The inversion is slowly breaking down over the west as the ridge weakens and fronts begin to push through from the Pacific. It remains very mild in the prairies and plains states but chilly in the Midwest, Great Lakes and northeast, with another snowstorm brewing for later today into Thursday along much the same path as Monday's 10-20 cm event. Meanwhile, down under the early summer heat will continue in the east but cloud ahead of a front will cool down Adelaide with a few isolated storms further west that may appear in Adelaide by tonight and redevelop further east tomorrow. Longer term it will then turn a bit cooler in Sydney and Melbourne before warming again by the weekend.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 14 December, 2017

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Windy and feeling very cold with frequent wintry showers, mostly rain or hail but some snow at times, winds westerly veering to northwesterly 50-80 km/hr (gusts to near 100 km/hr on west and north coasts). Highs only 3 to 6 C for most, near 7 C around west coast, and feeling like -2 to 0 C.

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers dying out gradually although fairly frequent in north and west, very cold, lows near 1 C west and -2 C inland east and south.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, moderate northerly winds 40-60 km/hr, and more isolated wintry showers most likely in Connacht, west Ulster and parts of west Munster, but also scattered over Irish Sea and may brush some parts of Wicklow. Highs 4 to 7 C.

SATURDAY ... Sharp frosts in the morning with lows -5 to -2 C, then increasing high cloud dimming the morning sunshine, overcast by late in the day, but staying rather cold, highs reaching 5 to 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Milder, a few outbreaks of light rain, but not much accumulation, morning lows 1 to 4 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, milder, highs near 12 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of light rain later in the day, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... The rest of next week looks relatively mild with occasional light rain but some dry spells especially later in the week, and highs of 9 or 10 C, only slight frosts at worst. It is expected to turn somewhat colder around the 24th (highs near 6 C) then slowly warm up in a developing southerly flow around Christmas Day and the 26th, with stormy conditions still advertised for 27th into 28th as deeper Atlantic lows make their first appearance in some time.

My local weather improved on Wednesday with a weak frontal system dropping traces of snow in the early morning, and then partial clearing followed, getting rid of the persistent low cloud in our valley. About 10-20 cms of snow fell from another stronger low tracking through the Midwest into the lower Great Lakes but this will weaken today and disappear into the Atlantic without leaving much snow in the major cities of the northeast and avoiding Boston to the south. Meanwhile in Australia, the cold front accelerated through Adelaide and has passed Melbourne too, leaving them with considerably cooler highs of 17 to 22 C; the front is approaching Sydney where it might set off a thunderstorm soon, but it remains hot from there north with highs to 35 C.