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Sunday, 15 October, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
ALERT for severe windstorm conditions on Monday affecting large parts of the country, especially Munster, the midlands, south coast and tne eastern half of Connacht. Details may change closer to the time but it seems likely that gusts of 140 to 170 km/hr could develop in exposed locations with severe damage potential. Gusts of 110 to 140 km/hr will occur in most other locations including the east coast, and will cause scattered damage. There is also a risk of storm surge coastal inundations of 2 metres or higher in some parts of the south coast and 1.5 metres on other coasts.
SUNDAY will bring intervals of light to moderate rain to some parts of the southwest and central counties along a slow-moving frontal boundary, with winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr at times ahead of this front (in the south and east), some spells of hazy sunshine and highs 17 to 20 C, then near 15 C in the rain and further north where some clearing could develop briefly. Winds in this cooler zone will be north 30 to 50 km/hr at times then northeast by this evening.
TONIGHT will be relatively calm at first with gradually increasing southeast winds in the southern counties, east to northeast further north, reaching gale force on the south coast by daybreak, and increasing more gradually further north, with outbreaks of heavy rain in west Munster moving towards Galway. There could be a few thundery showers embedded in this rain. It may become misty or foggy further east with much lighter rainfall if any.
MONDAY will likely bring severe stormy conditions as "Ophelia" tracks towards Kerry and then up the west coast, cutting inland around Galway and heading across Connacht into Donegal. On that track, areas to the west such as Mayo and perhaps parts of Donegal and Sligo would not see the strongest winds but this remains uncertain, if so, winds would be southeast 60-100 km/hr backing to northeast then northwest 70-120 km/hr, with periods of rain all day and 20-40 mm in total. To the east of the storm's track, very strong and possibly damaging winds would develop, by late morning in the south and by mid-afternoon in central counties. These winds would be south veering to southwest 80 to 130 km/hr with some local gusts as high as 160 km/hr. Some passing squally showers and brief thunderstorms could develop in this windy zone, and a general clearing trend would develop late in the afternoon as winds in the south began to moderate slightly. For the east coast, expect moderate southeast winds in the morning, strong to locally severe south to southwest winds by afternoon, 80 to 120 km/hr. For Ulster the winds will likely be less severe as the low will be losing intensity once it moves inland, and for east Ulster the peak winds will come in the late afternoon or evening at south 50-90 km/hr. Highest temperatures will be 16 to 19 C with readings falling off as the low centre passes towards 13 C.
Note also there will be a risk of storm surge coastal inundation with large waves combining with a 2 metre rise of sea levels above tide table values near high tides. This could flood some flat coastal districts by afternoon, get further information from local authorities in flood-prone coastal areas.
The most likely areas for severe damaging gusts appear to be Kerry and southwest Cork coasts east to Waterford. Clare is also at risk depending on where the low tracks. Galway city and Sligo town happen to be very close to the most likely storm track and conditions there could vary considerably from east (strong winds) to west (locally not as strong).
Monday night will see partial clearing and a general easing of the strrong winds with rain only in Ulster by early morning. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr for most. Lows 9 to 12 C.
TUESDAY will bring some sunny intervals in moderate west winds, then increasing cloud and further abatement of the wind speeds. Highs near 17 C.
The rest of the week will be somewhat cooler with frequent light rain, and occasional gusty winds, but only moderate gusts are expected at this point, with a week from Monday set to bring a stronger frontal system again. Highs from mid-week to early the following week will be generally 13 to 16 C. Somewhat colder weather is expected towards the end of the month.
My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy with sprinkles of rain and cold, highs only 9 or 10 C.
Further information and discussion on Monday's storm threat can be found in the Ophelia threads on the forum. Will update forecast some time around 7 to 9 p.m. this evening as well as at the usual time Monday morning.0 -
UPDATE -- Sunday 15 October 2017 9 p.m.
________________________________________
Overall, my thinking about the storm tomorrow has not changed. Some recent guidance has been perhaps 1-2 hours faster with the arrival time but I was working off that assumption since the one thing I trust the most about the GEM model is its upper level depictions and that was screaming fast phase. In layman's terms, what fast phase means is that this storm will rapidly transform from a truly tropical system (which is barely the case now as the low moves north from about 43N 14W), into a powerful frontal cyclone. This will rotate the entire system faster and bring the strong winds currently running along to the east of the low into the whole country and at a faster pace than the low centre, forcing an occluded front to form in an arc running a little ahead of the low itself. That will become the focus of the strongest winds inland, but south and southwest coastal locations will continue to have very strong winds for several hours after the low and associated fronts pass.
I understand that the whole country is now under a level 3 or red warning. I think this was probably done more for public safety and planning reasons than strictly based on model guidance, and it makes sense to me for a number of reasons which I posted elsewhere on the storm thread.
But here's what to expect in some detail, subject to revision at the morning forecast.
Overnight, winds will steadily increase from the southeast (more like east to northeast in northern counties and along the west coast). By daybreak, the wind speeds near the south coast will be 60 to 100 km/hr, about 50 to 80 km/hr on the west coast and across some exposed parts of the midlands and about 40 to 60 km/hr further north. Heavy and at times thundery rain is likely especially near the west coast and some distance inland towards the midlands.
Between 0800h and 1100h, winds will increase in the south and veer to southerly 100 to 150 km/hr. Depending on where the centre tracks into Kerry (most likely somewhere near the mid-point of the various peninsulas) winds along the west coast will increase to 90 to 130 km/hr from the north-northeast with heavy rain. The strong southerlies will quickly push inland with the frontal system forming and possibly setting off squally showers and thunderstorms. Winds of 90 to 130 km/hr are likely to get into the midlands by noon with the risk of tornadic wind streaks developing near thunderstorm cells.
On the east coast, winds will steadily increase all morning to reach about 70 to 110 km/hr by mid-day and then will increase more gradually in the afternoon to peak around 90 to 130 km/hr by late afternoon, the direction likely is SSE but SSW to the west of the Wicklow and Dublin hills.
Around 2 p.m. with the low somewhere near or over Clare, heavy rain and strong northeast winds will be widespread in Connacht with the southerlies intruding into east Galway and Roscommon. By about 5 p.m. the centre will be tracking closer to Knock and west Sligo and winds over western Connacht will swing around to northwest at 70 to 120 km/hr. About this phase of the storm, inland southerlies will begin to show a gradual decrease also in the 70 to 120 km/hr range, and the southwest will be seeing southwest winds at 70 to 110 km/hr. Rain will wrap around the centre. Anyone in the track of this low centre (and it could include Galway city and Sligo town) will notice an interval of 30 minutes to one hour of relative calm but it would be a shorter interval if you don't get into the exact centre.
IMPACTS -- I am expecting widespread moderate damage and isolated severe damage reports. The widespread moderate damage will be mostly tree limbs down, entire trees down but not onto buildings, and roof tiles or other building material blown into streets or pavements. Severe damage would be coastal flooding from storm surges of 2-3 metres, stream flooding in parts of Connacht mostly, and trees falling onto cars or buildings. The south coast will see the worst of the wind gusts and storm surge, locally there could be gusts to 170 km/hr. I don't think too many reading this will experience higher than 130 km/hr but most will be in the 110-130 range at some point. Stay safe and avoid unnecessary travel or walking during the height of this storm.
Next update likely to be around 0630h unless I feel like the storm is not on the predicted course and large changes are required.0 -
Monday, 16 October, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
ALERT maintained for very strong winds especially near south coast and at times near west coast, with some severe and damaging gusts to 140 km/hr around mid-day, also storm surges on the south coast that may produce coastal flooding. The east coast is in a somewhat marginal situation but will maintain an alert to co-ordinate with the national red warning state, gusts could occasionally reach 120 km/hr and tides may run as much as 1.5 metres above normal high tides.
In general, the storm track has only shifted marginally westward and a landfall of the centre is expected in Connemara around 1500h.
One fairly common theme across the country (away from the south coast which will have frequent strong gusts) is a rather variable regime within this complex storm system, as various eddies of stronger and weaker winds will be travelling along so you may experience a variable progression through the day of some stronger gusts and some intervals of weaker winds in general. Those who are close to the track of the centre could see several different lulls in the stronger winds and sudden surges of stronger winds. In other words, don't be fooled into thinking the storm has passed or become much weaker, it's just somewhat disorganized after being forced to change from a tropical type of low to a frontal system.
FORECASTS
TODAY ... The forecast is divided into several regions, for greater clarity.
Zone A -- Most of Munster, south Leinster ...
... Becoming very windy this morning with storm force winds by mid-day, southerly 100 to 150 km/hr. Some wind damage is likely scattered throughout the region. Storm surges of 2-3 metres combined with large battering waves could inundate low-lying coastal areas especially near afternoon high tides. Some rain this morning but then partly cloudy skies with passing squally showers. Highs near 16 C.
Zone B -- West coast north of Dingle peninsula to Galway Bay, and east-central Connacht into Donegal ...
... Stormy at times, thundery bursts of heavy rain alternating with partly cloudy skies at times, and rather variable winds from time to time as eddies of strong and weaker winds pass in sequence, occasional strong east to southeast winds gusting to 130 km/hr, but lulls where winds are closer to 50 km/hr. An interval of almost calm winds may mark the passage of the low centre, but a few miles to the east of the centre (this may apply to Clare) very strong southerly winds could mark its passage, then a more consistent period of strong westerly winds will follow, 80 to 130 km/hr. Some coastal storm surges of 1.5 metres and large waves could flood seaside areas exposed to westerly winds. Highs will reach 15 or 16 C.
Zone C ... West Galway and most of Mayo ...
... Intervals of heavy rain, rather cold with brisk northeast winds 60-100 km/hr, about 30 to 50 mm of rain may cause stream flooding, then winds increasing by afternoon to northwest 80-120 km/hr, ending up westerly by evening. Highs 11 to 13 C.
Zone D ... Midlands including Galway city and eastern Connacht north to central Ulster ...
... Variable cloud, passing squally showers, becoming windy through the morning and very windy mid-day (southerly 80 -120 km/hr). Risk of local wind damage and isolated tornadic wind streaks. Winds southwest 70-110 km/hr by later afternoon, highs reaching 17 C.
Zone E ... Central and northern Leinster ...
... Overcast, light rain at times, slowly increasing southeast winds reaching 60-100 km/hr by mid-day and 80-120 km/hr by afternoon. Squally showers may develop during the afternoon, then winds will slowly veer to southwest 70-110 km/hr. Some places sheltered by high ground to their south may have locally less severe winds. Coastal storm surges may inundate some low-lying areas by afternoon. Highs 16 to 18 C.
TONIGHT ... All regions will see a gradual moderation of strong winds (Northern Ireland excepted) and some rain will come and go in westerly winds of 50-80 km/hr, lows near 8 C.
TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals with increasing cloud, winds much more moderate at westerly 30-50 km/hr, highs near 15 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, light rain at times, light southeast winds, highs near 12 C.
THURSDAY ... Showers, breezy, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.
FRIDAY ... Occasional rain, chilly, heavier rainfalls in the south, moderate northeast winds developing, highs near 11 C.
OUTLOOK ... Rather unsettled, temperatures generally 8 to 12 C daytime and slightly cooler at night but with a lot of cloud, not much temperature variation.
My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy to sunny at times, highs near 15 C.
Take care today in the stormy conditions where and when they develop, and watch for updates.0 -
UPDATE __ Monday 16 October 2017 __ 1:00 p.m.
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Post-tropical Ophelia made a brief landfall on outer Kerry peninsulas around 1215h and centre (959 mb) is now moving north from near Valentia towards Clare coast for another landfall near Clifden in west Galway. It will also pass near or over the Aran Islands.
A detail that I wanted to underscore for west coast readers especially from Tralee north to Galway is that extreme westerly winds 130-170 km/hr may develop shortly after the passage of the low centre between 1:30 pm and 3:30 pm. These may be stronger than any winds that occurred in the southeasterly phase before the centre arrived. Violent gusts could cause some structural damage and beach debris could become a hazard in some places (thinking of Lahinch for example). This cycle of the storm will probably begin to lose intensity just about when it reaches Galway so would predict 100-150 km/hr winds there around 3:00 to 4:00 p.m.
Otherwise, note that extremely strong south winds have hit the central south coast already and will make rapid progress inland, peak winds should occur soon in the midlands. Watching radar for any signs of local tornadic wind streaks.
More updates may follow.0 -
Tuesday, 17 October, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Moderate westerly winds should continue to ease across parts of Ulster and Leinster this morning, and cloud with drizzly light rain will eventually break up in the north. Further south sunny intervals should be frequent with welcome light westerly breezes. Highs 12 to 15 C.
TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, a few sprinkles of light rain possible in south, lows around 8 to 10 C south, 3 to 7 C north.
WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, sporadic light rain at times, moderate east to southeast winds, becoming southerly later on, highs 12 to 14 C.
THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few intervals of rain, rather cold with highs near 11 C.
FRIDAY ... Some sunny breaks at first, cool, then increasing cloud and strong east to southeast winds 50-80 km/hr by late in the day with intervals of rain heavier in the south. Highs near 10 C.
SATURDAY ... Early morning strong wind gusts (70-110 km/hr) near the south coast, at this point not expected to be severe (possible level one alert required), rain totalling 20-30 mm for the event, as winds swing around to southwest then eventually northwest in the 50-80 km/hr range. ... Monitoring this system closely and while it will be vigorous, currently not looking as severe as Ophelia. Slight risk of local level 2 alerts is about the worst it might produce by the looks of current guidance, but this could change.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continued rather unsettled with temperatures a little milder at times then falling back to 10-13 C range.
My local weather on Monday was overcast with light rain at times, highs near 13 C.0 -
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Wednesday, 18 October, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
Advance Alert: The trend on all guidance is towards another significant wind and (in this case) rain event on Friday night. While not as severe as recent extra-tropical "Ophelia" this storm may require orange or level 2 warnings along the south coast, with strong low pressure tracking into Munster from the west-southwest and continuing through the country to reach the central Irish Sea by Saturday morning. About 20 to 30 mm of rain is likely along and to the north of this track; the stronger winds will be mostly reserved for the south coast and some distance up the east coast into Wicklow. Details may continue to change but the trend has been towards a stronger event over these past 24 hours.
TODAY will become mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals continuing in north Leinster and parts of Ulster. Occasional light rain will develop in moderate southeast winds 40-60 km/hr. Rather cool with highs 11 to 14 C, and about 3 to 7 mm of rain.
TONIGHT will see further light rain and winds becoming southerly 40 to 70 km/hr, lows 4 to 7 C.
THURSDAY will bring intervals of light rain, with winds falling off for part of the day before resuming at moderate levels from the northwest. Highs 11 to 14 C and about 10 mm of rain.
FRIDAY will start off partly cloudy and cool, with morning lows 3 to 7 C. Cloud will increase rapidly from the west, with a rising southeast wind reaching gale force (60 to 100 km/hr) over the south coast by afternoon, about 40 to 70 km/hr further north. Rain will begin mid-day in Munster and slowly spread into Connacht and south Leinster. Highs 10 to 13 C with about 15 mm of rain in southwest.
FRIDAY NIGHT will bring strong winds to the south coast, southwest 80-120 km/hr can be expected, with occasional rain. Further north, heavy rain will develop, it won't be as windy in some parts of inland Munster as the low centre approaches, but some parts of the east and north will see moderate to strong southeast winds backing to northeast in Connacht by Saturday morning. Lows 7 to 9 C and potential for 20 to 30 mm of rain.
SATURDAY will continue windy and cool with rain or drizzle blown around in north to northwest winds of 70 to 110 km/hr, highs only 9 or 10 C.
SUNDAY and MONDAY may see milder temperatures returning, a brief dry and relatively calm interval followed by more wind and rain by late Monday. Highs both days 14 to 16 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for unsettled weather at times, near normal temperatures.
My local weather started out with very heavy rain, strong winds, then clearing up and calming down in the afternoon, ahead of another strong front expected by mid-day today. The high on Tuesday was about 14 C.
For more updates or views on the approaching Friday night storm, see the dedicated thread elsewhere on the forum.0 -
Thursday, 19 October, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
Alerts for heavy rain today in parts of the south, and strong winds combined with significant rainfalls on Friday night into Saturday, in various parts of Ireland ... details in the forecasts below.
TODAY ... Rain will continue to move slowly eastward, ending with drizzle and fog as raw southeast winds ease to light or calm before picking up (mostly in western half of the country) from west to northwest 40-60 km/hr late afternoon. Temperatures will not change much all day from current values 11-13 C. Rainfalls 10-30 mm, heaviest amounts already occurring in west Munster, and later in the inland southeast in particular in higher parts of Wicklow.
TONIGHT ... Breezy and cool with remnant showers ending by about midnight in the east, some clearing before dawn, and lows 4 to 7 C. Winds northwest 40-60 km/hr.
FRIDAY ... Some sunny intervals in the east and north during the morning mostly, then increasing cloud there, as rain moves into Munster and coastal Connacht, with rapidly increasing southeast winds 50-80 km/hr. Highs
11 to 13 C.
FRIDAY NIGHT ... Windy across the south, south to southwest 60-100 km/hr, with rain spreading across southern and central counties, intermittent rain or drizzle further north, lows 7 to 9 C.
SATURDAY ... Variable cloud in the south, bands of rain spreading from Atlantic coasts into central and eventually eastern counties, strong west to northwest winds 70 to 110 km/hr developing, and cold with highs only 9 to 12 C.
SUNDAY ... Some sunny intervals and lighter winds at first, then overcast with rain spreading into the west by late in the day, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 12 to 15 C.
MONDAY ... Windy with occasional rain, highs near 15 C.
TUESDAY ... Showers ending, highs near 15 C.
OUTLOOK ... It now appears likely to turn quite mild after the unsettled spell comes to an end, with potential for highs of 16 to 18 C later next week into the weekend of the 28th-29th. Longer range models show a possible colder turn just around the end of the month.
My local weather was overcast with heavy rain (50-80 mm) that caused some flooding of low-lying areas, with a high of about 13 C.0 -
Friday, 20 October, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
ALERT for strong winds tonight and Saturday, peak gusts tonight about 120 km/hr in west Munster, and on Saturday, more generally about 110 km/hr in exposed locations.
Also an ALERT for heavy rainfalls in higher parts of the west and south, up to 30 mm possible.
TODAY ... Some sunny intervals in the east and north during the morning mostly, then increasing cloud there, as rain moves into Munster and coastal Connacht, with rapidly increasing southeast winds 50-80 km/hr. Highs about 12 to 14 C.
FRIDAY NIGHT ... Windy across the south, south to southwest 70-120 km/hr, probably strongest around Cork, with rain and isolated thunderstorms spreading across southern and central counties, clearing the east coast towards morning; 20 to 30 mm possible. Intermittent rain or drizzle further north, 5 to 15 mm. Lows 7 to 9 C.
SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, bands of rain (5 to 15 mm) spreading from Atlantic coasts into central and eventually eastern counties, strong west to northwest winds 70 to 110 km/hr developing, and feeling cold with highs only 9 to 12 C.
SUNDAY ... Some sunny intervals and lighter winds at first, then overcast with rain spreading into the west by late in the day, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 12 to 15 C.
MONDAY ... Windy with occasional rain, highs near 15 C.
TUESDAY ... Showers ending, highs near 15 C.
OUTLOOK ... It now appears likely to turn quite mild with potential for highs of 16 to 18 C later next week into the weekend of the 28th-29th. There may be one or two dry days but rain will continue to be part of the picture despite the milder turn. Longer range models show a possible colder turn just around the end of the month.
My local weather on Thursday was overcast with occasional rain and highs near 14 C.0 -
Saturday, 21 October, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Very windy this morning in parts of Munster, in particular Clare, Limerick, south Tipps, Waterford, and later into south Leinster, as west to northwest gales from the ocean push rapidly inland (80-120 km/hr), also isolated strong gusts in Kerry and Cork depending on exposure to the west. Squally showers will accompany the strong winds making for hazardous driving conditions. The afternoon will see some breaks in the cloud but with a risk of thundery showers with hail, and the wind will only gradually let up (northwest 50-80 km/hr by late afternoon).
Further north, a similar trend will unfold somewhat more gradually as the eye of the storm moves east across the midlands to around Dublin by early afternoon. Ahead of this feature, winds will tend to decrease to moderate southerly, briefly fall off to light and variable, then will rapidly pick up to westerly 60-110 km/hr (possibly stronger near Galway Bay). This zone will also experience squally showers and longer periods of rain with hazardous driving conditions due to hail and reduced visibility at times. Further north still, winds will continue somewhat less blustery and will turn northeast before picking up to northwest 50-80 km/hr by mid-day. Occasional rain or drizzle with isolated heavier showers for the north. Highs generally 11 to 13 C.
TONIGHT ... Winds decreasing to westerly 40-60 km/hr, showers ending, lows 5 to 8 C.
SUNDAY ... Sunny at first with increasing cloud, rain by late afternoon in the west, spreading east overnight. Highs 14 to 16 C. Winds moderate but picking up somewhat (southwest 50-70 km/hr) by evening.
MONDAY ... Showers ending, mild, highs near 15 C.
TUESDAY ... Occasional rain, foggy at times, mild, highs near 15 C.
OUTLOOK ... Becoming very mild as winds gradually turn southerly, drawing up subtropical air from near the Azores and Madeira. Highs will reach 18 to 20 C later in the week and perhaps until the end of October. A steady cooling trend is indicated for the first several days of November.
My local weather on Friday was overcast with rain at times, and highs near 15 C.
We are also expecting a warmer spell of weather next week.0 -
Sunday, 22 October, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, as a few showers fade away from parts of the west and south central counties this morning. However, a more organized band of rain will arrive in the west by late afternoon, with winds picking up again to southwest 40-60 km/hr. Highs 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT ... Occasional rain, misty, lows near 10 C with about 5-10 mm of rain.
MONDAY ... Rain ending, some hazy sunshine, rather mild, highs 14 to 16 C.
TUESDAY ... Showers or intervals of light rain (5-10 mm expected), mild, lows 8 to 10 C and highs 14 to 16 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Morning fog, then partly cloudy, hazy and mild, lows 8 to 10 C and highs 14 to 16 C.
THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, very mild in the south with highs near 18 C inland, about 15 C further north.
FRIDAY to MONDAY (30th) ... Continued rather mild and dry although nights will become colder with slight frosts possible, highs 12 to 15 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rain or showers around end of month, then turning colder at times in early November.
My local weather on Saturday was overcast with rain and fog, highs near 10 C. Milder weather is moving in for the rest of the month. We may be close to 20 C by mid-week. A very prolonged warm spell in eastern North America is about to end in stages and the first cold outbreak with lake effect snow flurries may develop before the end of the week. In general, patterns are showing a tendency to "retrogress" meaning large scale features are drifting west. This will be bringing pattern change in many parts of the northern hemisphere. One other note, a strong typhoon is heading towards Japan from the southwest, but it should weaken to a tropical storm before hitting Honshu just west of Tokyo early Tuesday local time (late Monday Irish time).0 -
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Monday, 23 October, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Some hazy sunshine at times, mild, with patchy drizzle or light rain moving into some western counties by afternoon. Highs 13 to 16 C.
TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, occasional light rain, fog or mist, and very mild, lows only about 10 to 12 C.
TUESDAY ... A few intervals of light rain, just 2 to 5 mm expected, brief intervals of hazy sunshine, mild. Highs 13 to 16 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, morning lows 7 to 9 C and afternoon highs 12 to 15 C.
THURSDAY ... Continued very mild in the south with highs 15 to 17 C, closer to 12 degrees in the north, dry with some sunny breaks.
FRIDAY to TUESDAY will continue dry and settled with perhaps a greater chance of fog at night, and somewhat colder overnight temperatures that could promote a touch of ground frost in some inland locations, lows 2 to 7 C and highs 10 to 14 C, also light winds mostly as high pressure builds over Ireland.
WEDNESDAY (1st November) will turn colder with winds becoming northerly, temperatures falling to about 7 C in the daytime.
The first part of November looks generally quite a bit colder than recent weeks.
My local weather on Sunday featured some sunny intervals and passing drizzly light showers, with highs around
13 C.0 -
Tuesday, 24 October, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Outbreaks of light rain will become heavier across the south this afternoon with potential for 10-20 mm, while northern counties see only 3 to 7 mm. Mild, with highs 14 to 16 C.
TONIGHT ... Rain tapering off to drizzle and fog, mist then partial clearing, lows 8 to 12 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, isolated showers but most places dry, highs 12 to 15 C.
THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, mild, highs 14 to 17 C south, 12 to 15 C north.
FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, highs 10 to 13 C.
SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few showers or intervals of light rain, highs 10 to 13 C.
OUTLOOK ... Sunday to Tuesday will be mostly dry with light winds and colder nights with lows 2 to 6 C although daytime highs will remain above 10 C. Beyond that, models are flirting with wintry outbreaks from the north with snow depicted on some charts for 2-3 November, something we will take a "wait and see" attitude towards.
My local weather on Monday was overcast and quite mild with a high of 15 C, and we may be closer to 20 C by end of this week. There are faint signs of tropical activity southwest of Cuba but it may take three or four days to get something organized.0 -
Wednesday, 25 October, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Some sunny intervals and pleasantly mild, highs 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud from the south, lows 9 to 11 C, but staying partly clear in northern counties where lows may fall a bit lower (6 to 9 C).
THURSDAY ... Rather cloudy except for some brighter intervals across northern counties, mild. Highs 11 to 13 C but some parts of the inland south could reach 15 C.
FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy with sunny spells, slightly cooler, lows 4 to 7 C and highs about 10 to 13 C.
SATURDAY ... Rather cloudy, scattered outbreaks of drizzle or light rain (1-3 mm) with lows 8 to 10 C and highs 11 to 13 C.
SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 9 to 13 C.
MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, a cool start with scattered ground frost, lows 0 to 5 C, then highs about 10 C.
TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain at times, becoming windy by late in the day (westerly 50-80 km/hr). Highs near 11 C.
WEDNESDAY (1st November) ... Turning colder in stages as winds become more northerly. Highs around 8 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Already there's some doubt about the earlier depicted cold spell and inland snow but it will be turning quite cool, perhaps not quite cold enough for snow except on higher summits, highs 6 to 8 C. However, November is currently looking rather variable with temperatures trending up and down rather frequently.
My local weather on Tuesday was quite pleasant, sunshine pushed the afternoon highs to 18 C after a rather cool start to the day with a very heavy dew that soaked the ground. We will have a brief interruption in this fine spell with a fast-moving front but can't really call it a cold front as temperatures will stay above normal after it passes and could hit 20 C later in the week. Turning much colder in eastern North America where it has been a very warm month so far (some locations 4-5 C deg above average).0 -
Thursday, 26 October, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
Winter forecast for 2017-18 should be available soon, I just finished studying years with the most similar current set-ups and found that they quickly diverge into two groups, one of which contains some serious cold by mid-winter and the other group tending to stay mild (it seems like there's no happy medium). This helps only in pointing to the strong possibility of blocking as the recent zonal flow breaks down. So once I have a better idea of which fork in the road we are taking, I will publish the forecast, no later than 15th of November. (A complication is that we are moving house soon, which may lead to the occasional interval when I'm away from the internet for 2-3 days).
The forecast remains largely unchanged
TODAY ... Rather cloudy except for some brighter intervals across northern counties, mild. A few outbreaks of drizzle or light rain may develop along a weak front through south-central counties, only 1-2 mm rain is likely. Highs 11 to 13 C north of this front, but some parts of the inland south could reach 15 C. Dense fog may persist near some coasts.
TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing from northwest to southeast, any lingering mist or drizzle should clear by early morning hours, lows 4 to 7 C north, 7 to 9 C south.
FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy with sunny spells, slightly cooler, with highs about 10 to 13 C.
SATURDAY ... Rather cloudy, scattered outbreaks of drizzle or light rain (1-3 mm) with lows 8 to 10 C and highs 11 to 13 C.
SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 9 to 13 C.
MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, a cool start with scattered ground frost, lows 0 to 5 C, then highs about 10 C.
TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain at times, becoming windy by late in the day (westerly 50-80 km/hr). Highs near 11 C.
WEDNESDAY (1st November) ... Turning colder in stages as winds become more northerly. Highs around 8 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather cold in the first few days of November with a chance of yet colder weather arriving, then a more variable pattern towards mid-month.
My local weather on Wednesday started out with light rain and it stayed drizzly and foggy most of the day with a high near 13 C. Very warm air is banking up over top of us and the forecast challenge here is basically whether or not the inversion breaks down, where it does, temperatures could exceed 20 C, where it doesn't, fog may persist and that will keep it closer to 12 C. Usually in these situations, the further inland you go, the more chance of a warmer outcome.0 -
Friday, 27 October, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, light winds, highs 11 to 14 C.
TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, lows may fall to 2 to 6 C inland south, but will remain closer to 7 C in the north, rising towards morning with scattered outbreaks of drizzle in Ulster.
SATURDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, outbreaks of light rain or drizzle mainly confined to northeast during the morning hours. Moderate westerly winds turning northwesterly later afternoon (30-50 km/hr), highs 10 to 13 C.
SUNDAY ... After a cool start with scattered frost (lows -1 to +4 C), sunny intervals, light winds and highs 9 to 12 C.
MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, outbreaks of light rain, moderate south to southwest winds, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 10 to 13 C.
TUESDAY to THURSDAY are now looking somewhat milder again in southwest to west winds of 40 to 60 km/hr, highs each day near 10 C (12 C south). Nights are now expected to be frost free.
OUTLOOK ... The expected colder weather has been delayed to around Friday 3rd of November, when a west-northwest flow of polar origins sets in, bringing a colder feel and highs 7 to 9 C, overnight lows close to the freezing point (except near west coast). Mixed wintry showers are possible on higher terrain around the weekend of the 4th and 5th, but it should remain mostly rain or hail at lower elevations. Beyond this cold spell, a more typical variable November pattern is expected and the average temperature for the first half of November probably won't be very far from normal.
My local weather on Thursday started out quite foggy but the sun eventually won the battle and the high was close to 17 C. Possible 20 C readings today after a clear, cool night.0 -
Saturday, 28 October, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks (more frequent in south), just a slight chance of patchy drizzle in parts of the north and east, but basically a dry day with rather mild highs of 13 or 14 C.
TONIGHT ... Considerable cloud and mist at first, a slight clearing trend may allow temperatures to fall quickly in a few locations in Connacht but probably staying rather mild elsewhere, lows generally 6 to 9 C, could fall to 2 or 3 C with any gaps in the cloud before daybreak, which would promote patchy ground frost and dense fog patches near lakes and rivers.
SUNDAY ... Morning cloudy intervals, afternoon sunshine developing although south coast could remain overcast, highs 12 to 14 C.
MONDAY ... Rather chilly early morning, lows 1 to 4 C inland, becoming more cloudy towards daybreak and throughout the day in moderate southwest winds, drizzle near west coast, highs 12 to 14 C.
TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers developing, moderate southwest winds, lows near 10 C and highs near 13 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Showers ending, lows near 9 C and highs near 12 C.
THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, lows near 3 C and highs near 10 C.
OUTLOOK ... Colder from Friday 3rd to Sunday 5th with showers of rain or hail for most, wintry on some higher hills, moderate west to northwest winds 50-70 km/hr. After that cold spell temperatures may become quite mild again for most of the following week.
My local weather on Friday was glorious for time of year, sunny with a high of 18 C. This spell will continue but with more fog each day until the fog takes over completely during the week.
We may be seeing Tropical Storm Philippe near Cuba, south Florida and/or the Bahamas in the next day or two, and it will move quickly northeast once it develops.0 -
Sunday, 29 October, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... This morning will continue mostly cloudy but some afternoon sunshine will develop although south coast could remain overcast, highs 12 to 14 C. Light northerly winds falling off to calm this evening.
TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, chance of frost inland south and central counties, lows about 1 to 4 C inland, cloudy towards daybreak with rising temperatures as a result.
MONDAY ... Rather chilly early morning, lows 1 to 4 C inland, becoming more cloudy towards daybreak and throughout the day in moderate southwest winds, drizzle near west coast, highs 12 to 14 C.
TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers developing, moderate southwest winds, lows 7 to 10 C and highs near 13 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Showers ending, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C. Rain will continue to linger near southwest coasts but may be pushed back out to sea as a brief easterly develops.
THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, lows near 3 C and highs near 10 C.
OUTLOOK ... Colder from Friday 3rd to Sunday 5th with showers of rain or hail for most, wintry on some higher hills, moderate west to northwest winds 50-70 km/hr. After that cold spell temperatures may become quite mild again for Monday 6th, then another cooler spell with this alternating pattern repeating at about three or four day intervals for most of the following two weeks.
My local weather on Saturday remained sunny and very mild with highs near 17 C.
Tropical Storm Philippe has formed (barely, it's a disorganized complex over south Florida and nearby western Bahamas) and will race north-northeast to merge with low pressure near Long Island late tonight, the combined storm will bring 120 km/hr wind gusts to coastal New England and parts of Atlantic Canada by Monday afternoon. This storm will then head northwest towards western Quebec rather than moving across the Atlantic.0 -
Monday, 30 October, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Some sunny intervals with a slow increase in cloud cover, highs 12 to 14 C.
TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, lows 8 to 10 C.
TUESDAY ... Overcast, occasional light rain (2-5 mm mostly north, west), highs about 13 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Rain backing off to west allowing for some clearing, morning lows about 7 C and afternoon highs near 12 C.
THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, cool, morning lows 1 to 4 C and afternoon highs 9 to 12 C.
FRIDAY ... Overcast, southwest winds, showers then turning colder at least in Connacht (overnight elsewhere), highs near 10 C.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Windy and cool, passing showers, sleety on hills, highs 7 to 10 C. West to northwest winds 50-70 km/hr.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Windy with rain, winds southwest 70-100 km/hr, turning mild briefly on Monday 6th then back into colder air, this time with more of a wintry bite indicated (highs 5 to 8 C, mixed wintry showers by mid-week around 8 Nov). After that, more ups and downs in a highly variable "mobile" Atlantic pattern.
My local weather on Sunday was sunny and very warm for late October, highs reaching 21 C. On the east coast, remnants of Tropical Storm Philippe south of Cape Cod are rapidly merging with a deep low moving north near Albany NY, and it has become very windy in much of New England with gusts to 120 km/hr. The old core of the former tropical storm will be near Boston around 0900h GMT so that very strong gusts will continue in New England until late today.0 -
Tuesday, 31 October, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Overcast, occasional light rain (2-5 mm mostly north, west), highs about 13 C.
TONIGHT ... Rain may continue all night in some parts of the north and west with a further 5-10 mm, lows 8 to 11 C. Partly to mostly cloudy further south and east with lows 5 to 8 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Rain tapering off to showers or drizzle, some movement southeast with a weak front but some places remaining dry under partly to mostly cloudy skies, with afternoon highs near 12 C.
THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, cool with patchy frost inland, morning lows 1 to 4 C and afternoon highs 9 to 12 C.
FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, southwest winds, showers then turning colder at least in Connacht (overnight elsewhere), lows 2 to 5 C, highs near 10 C.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Windy and cool, passing showers, sleety on hills, highs 7 to 10 C. West to northwest winds 50-70 km/hr.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Windy with rain, winds southwest 70-100 km/hr, turning mild briefly on Monday 6th then back into colder air, rain early Tuesday could mix with wet snow especially on higher terrain before clearing, the cold by mid-week bringing somewhat of a wintry feel (highs 5 to 8 C, mixed wintry showers by mid-week around 8 Nov). After that, more ups and downs in a highly variable "mobile" Atlantic pattern.
My local weather on Monday continued sunny and mild although highs were a more seasonable 13 to 15 C. The storm over New England moved into Quebec and is weakening early this morning, but colder air is flooding in behind it to reach the east coast with a sharp drop in temperatures to more seasonable values (around 10 C in the daytime).0 -
Wednesday, 1 November, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, but a few brighter intervals this morning across the south, as rain in the north begins to fragment to showers while the remnants move southward, bringing hit or miss 1-3 mm rainfalls to central counties, even less further south later this afternoon. Highs about 12 or 13 C.
TONIGHT ... Any remaining showers or drizzle dying out, followed by partial clearing with higher cloud still present, colder with lows 2 to 5 C and some patchy ground frost in central and northern inland locations.
THURSDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sun with isolated brief showers, little accumulation, highs near 10 C.
FRIDAY ... Morning lows about 4 to 7 C as cloud increases again, then scattered outbreaks of light rain (2-5 mm) with highs near 11 C. As moderate southwest winds veer to westerly, colder air will sweep into Connacht around late afternoon.
SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with passing showers of rain or hail, some with thunder, and sleety or wintry mixtures on higher slopes. Winds west to northwest about 50-70 km/hr. Morning lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C but feeling colder in the wind.
SUNDAY ... Quite cold to start, then milder in westerly backing to southwesterly winds of 50-70 km/hr. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 8 to 11 C.
MONDAY ... Windy with squally showers developing, mild, highs near 12 C.
TUESDAY ... Rain turning sleety on hills and becoming much colder again, isolated wintry showers by afternoon and evening, as temperatures fall from near 10 C early in the day to 4-6 C by afternoon.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A highly variable pattern with fast changes in temperatures and frequent gusty winds from a westerly to northwesterly direction mostly, some rain at times although not overly wet for November.
My local weather on Tuesday was bright but with considerable higher cloud, and a high of about 11 C. Colder weather is about to set in from the north as arctic air builds up over northern B.C., but here at the coast we're only expecting a slight drop in daytime temperatures, slight frosts at night.0 -
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Thursday, 2 November, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Rather cloudy with some brighter intervals more frequent across parts of the central and inland northern counties. A slight chance of isolated showers. Highs 9 to 11 C.
TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, isolated showers, cold. Lows 3 to 6 C.
FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few outbreaks of light rain becoming more widespread in western counties towards late afternoon, highs near 10 C.
SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with passing sleety showers, some hail and thunder, and possible snow on higher ground. Also some sunny breaks especially over eastern and south coast counties. Winds west to northwest 50-80 km/hr, morning lows about 4 C and afternoon highs near 8 C, feeling colder in the wind.
SUNDAY ... Some clear intervals early morning with patchy frost, lows -1 to +4 C, then increasing cloud, southwest breezes increasing to 40-60 km/hr, highs 9 to 11 C.
MONDAY ... Windy and briefly milder with outbreaks of rain or heavy showers, highs near 12 C. Turning colder again late in the day in Connacht.
TUESDAY ... Rain ending with an interval of sleet or snow on some hills, then partial clearing, isolated wintry showers, cold. Temperatures falling from near 8 C to about 3 to 5 C by afternoon.
OUTLOOK ... Variable temperatures will continue, and strong winds will develop late next week, currently Saturday 11th looks very cold and windy with possible wintry showers, so we'll have to see how that evolves closer to the time.
My local weather on Wednesday was mostly sunny and the high was about 10 C. Much colder air is poised to move in overnight and last through the rest of this week and into next week, but snow will only fall on higher slopes around here, while there could be wintry falls of hail closer to sea level. It is generally turning rather cold over most of North America away from the southern tier of (U.S.) states.0 -
Friday, 3 November, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, with a few outbreaks of light rain becoming more widespread in southern and western counties towards late afternoon, highs 10 to 12 C.
TONIGHT ... Rain may be rather heavy for part of the overnight hours (5-15 mm), and it will turn quite cold in the evening in Connacht, around midnight elsewhere, with sleet possible. Lows 3 to 5 C.
SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with passing sleety showers, some hail and thunder, and possible snow on higher ground. Also some sunny breaks especially over eastern and south coast counties. Winds west to northwest 50-80 km/hr, morning lows about 4 C and afternoon highs near 8 C, feeling colder in the wind.
SUNDAY ... Some clear intervals early morning with patchy frost, lows -1 to +4 C, then increasing cloud, west backing to southwest breezes increasing to 40-60 km/hr, highs 9 to 11 C.
MONDAY ... Windy and briefly milder with outbreaks of rain or heavy showers, highs near 12 C. Winds increasing to southwest 60-100 km/hr. Turning colder again late in the day in Connacht as temperatures take a sharp downturn in blustery west to northwest winds. This colder air will rapidly spread into central counties overnight but will stall before reaching the east coast where rain will continue most of the night.
TUESDAY ... Rain ending in Leinster and east Ulster with an interval of sleet or snow on some hills, then partial clearing, isolated wintry showers, cold. Temperatures falling from near 8 C to about 3 to 5 C by afternoon.
WEDNESDAY ... Continued rather cold, isolated showers, lows -2 to +4 C and highs 7 to 11 C.
OUTLOOK ... Somewhat milder near the end of the week, then very windy, turning colder in stages over the weekend of 11th-12th, the coldest period now looks like being Sunday 12th into Monday 13th when it could be cold enough for some snow showers according to current guidance, still too far off to be more than speculation at this point. After this, more rapid fluctuations in temperature seem likely as the flow continues from the west, mixing milder and colder air masses frequently.
My local weather on Thursday was cold with a drenching rain that showed signs of turning to wet snow before ending, highs only 5 or 6 C. Further inland there were moderate to heavy falls of snow making for the usual early winter driving mayhem on regional highways.0 -
Saturday, 4 November, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
My winter forecast summary for December to February is posted at the end of today's forecast.
TODAY ... Windy and cold with passing sleety showers, some hail and thunder, and possibly some snow on higher ground. Also some sunny breaks especially over eastern and south coast counties. Winds west to northwest 50-80 km/hr, afternoon highs near 8 C, feeling colder in the wind.
TONIGHT ... Wintry showers increasingly confined to Atlantic coastal counties before ending entirely with some clearing, cold, moderate northwest winds in exposed locations, lows -1 to +4 C.
SUNDAY ... Some clear intervals early morning with patchy frost, lows -1 to +4 C, then increasing cloud, west backing to southwest breezes increasing to 40-60 km/hr, highs 9 to 11 C.
MONDAY ... Windy and briefly milder with outbreaks of rain or heavy showers, highs near 12 C. Winds increasing to southwest 60-100 km/hr. Turning colder again late in the day in Connacht as temperatures take a sharp downturn in blustery west to northwest winds. This colder air will rapidly spread into central counties overnight but will stall before reaching the east coast where rain will continue most of the night.
TUESDAY ... Rain ending in Leinster and east Ulster with an interval of sleet or snow on some hills, then partial clearing, isolated wintry showers, cold. Temperatures falling from near 8 C to about 3 to 5 C by afternoon.
WEDNESDAY ... Continued rather cold, an interval of light rain that may be sleety on some northern hills, then slightly milder late in the day, morning lows -2 to +4 C and highs 7 to 11 C.
THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... This period now looks somewhat less likely to turn very cold but will remain cool with frequent passing showers and brief dry intervals, most nights close to a slight frost inland and days around 9 or 10 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Quite cold for the following week with a northwesterly flow developing and highs generally 5 to 8 C.
WINTER FORECAST ... Now ready to make a winter forecast, generally speaking somewhat colder than most recent winters, with frequent bouts of wintry showers on higher ground in northwesterly winds, a pattern that may bring more snow to Connacht and Ulster than most of Leinster or Munster. I see some potential for a colder spell affecting eastern counties towards late January, but perhaps the more significant threat this winter will be a stormy interval setting in before Christmas and bringing a run of several rather strong storms in late December and the first part of January. There will be a fair mix of weather types overall not excluding some very mild days here and there. But the general trend will be a bit colder than average.
My local weather on Friday was cold with morning light snow and sleet, then just mostly cloudy with highs barely reaching 5 C. A bit more snow is expected over the weekend here, then a return to more seasonable early November weather (which would be closer to 10 C).0 -
Sunday, 5 November, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Cool and breezy although somewhat milder by afternoon, sunny intervals for most with bands of showers feeding in from the Atlantic on westerly winds, so a few places (mostly west-central counties) will have frequent showers. Highs 8 to 11 C.
TONIGHT ... Clear intervals at first, then increasing cloud, winds backing to southwesterly, lows 4 to 7 C.
MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, moderate to strong southwest winds 50-80 km/hr, rain by afternoon in west, and by evening in eastern counties. Highs 9 to 11 C.
TUESDAY ... Morning showers across eastern counties, clearing further west, and turning colder, mixed wintry showers in some higher parts of the west. Temperatures will be 8 to 10 C in the east and falling slightly by afternoon, but closer to 6 C in the west.
WEDNESDAY ... Overcast, milder, outbreaks of light rain, highs near 11 C.
OUTLOOK ... Rather mild from Thursday to about Sunday 12th in a westerly flow with occasional rain from passing frontal waves, highs each day not far from 10 C. Turning colder in stages over the following week, highs generally 5 to 8 C, mixed wintry showers likely on higher ground in north and west.
My local weather on Saturday was unusually cold again with some light flurries of wet snow, no accumulation at my elevation, and highs near 5 C. Generally speaking it has turned quite cold across most of southern Canada and the northern half of the United States, but it's pleasantly mild in the southern half of the U.S. with highs there around 20-23 C.0 -
Monday, 6 November, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Increasing cloud, moderate to strong southwest winds 50-80 km/hr, rain by afternoon in west, and by evening in eastern counties. Highs 9 to 11 C.
TONIGHT ... Rain gradually extending eastward across the country, 5-10 mm expected, blustery southwest winds veering westerly 50-80 km/hr. Lows will range from 3-6 C in west, to 8-10 C in east.
TUESDAY ... Morning showers across eastern counties, clearing further west, and turning colder, mixed wintry showers in some higher parts of the west. Temperatures will be 8 to 10 C in the east and falling slightly by afternoon, but closer to 6 C in the west.
WEDNESDAY ... Overcast, milder, outbreaks of light rain, highs near 11 C.
THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, mild, highs near 12 C.
FRIDAY ... Overcast, breezy to windy, rain at times, highs near 11 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Gradually turning colder, risk of mixed wintry showers on higher ground in north, highs by next weekend only 5-8 C. This cold spell may last a few days, followed by milder weather again.
My local weather on Sunday was sunny and cold with highs around 6 C.0 -
Tuesday, 7 November, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
Just a heads up to those who sometimes step in to provide forecasts, it looks like I will have no internet access for parts of Wed 8th and Thurs 9th, if you don't find a forecast posted perhaps you could update Boards readers. Thanks in advance.
TODAY ... Some sunny intervals near east and south coasts, frequent showers developing elsewhere with some hail and thunder, snow or sleet possible in heavier bursts and certainly on higher ground as highs near sea level will be 6 to 9 C but temperatures higher up will be quite close to freezing. Moderate westerly winds at times adding further chill.
TONIGHT ... Clear intervals until midnight west, almost lasting to dawn further east, with frost developing, lows -2 to +4 C. Frost will be more widespread in the inland east and south, since further west milder air will begin to spread in and rain (possibly starting as sleet on higher ground) will develop by about 0500h.
WEDNESDAY ... Outbreaks of rain (3-7 mm likely) followed by partial clearing as winds increase from westerly direction, milder again with highs reaching 10 to 12 C.
THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy and mild, morning lows 4 to 7 C and afternoon highs about 12 C.
FRIDAY ... Intervals of rain, strong southwest to west winds 60-100 km/hr, temperatures steady near 10 C, then partial clearing, northwest winds 40-70 km/hr and turning cooler.
OUTLOOK ... Next weekend looks mainly dry and cool with morning frosts and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C.
The following week looks like it wants to repeat the sequence of weather this week, briefly milder Monday then cold for a day or two and back to milder.
My local weather on Monday was sunny and cold with a high near 6 C. Sharp frosts are likely tonight here.0 -
Wednesday, 8 November, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
Firstly, I'd like to apologise on today's forecast running late. I would normally fill in for MT but I had school to worry about and get done with before doing so.
Again I'm sorry but better late than never, right?
TODAY .... After a sunny start in eastern regions, cloud continues to thicken as the day goes on across all parts ahead of some rain pushing eastwards. Some of it will be heavy bringing totals up to 10mm or a bit more in some parts. Milder day with brisk southwesterly winds and temperatures of 9-12c.
TONIGHT .... A clearance shall follow once the rain is passed through. However, it will be mostly cloudy so temperatures should hold up well with lows of 6-10c. Patches of fog possible in clearer spots where temperatures could drop lower than 6c.
THURSDAY .... Mostly cloudy in the south to begin with some patchy rain or drizzle possible. Clearer weather across the north should extend to most regions during the afternoon before cloud unveils from the west bringing rain to most by nightfall. Winds mostly moderate in a westerly direction. Mild with temperatures of 10-13c.
FRIDAY .... Mostly cloudy in between a weather front that clears Thursday night before another one which will bring rain, potentially heavy, to all Friday night into Saturday morning. Chance of some bright sunny spells in the northeast. Mild again in 10-13c.
SATURDAY .... Becoming much brighter after a cloudy and wet start. Winds will veer to a northwesterly making it feel much chillier with temperatures of 7-10c.
SUNDAY .... Cold and rather showery in gusty northwesterly winds. It will feel very chilly in the strong wind. Showers will be mostly up to the north so it will be very sunny otherwise. Temperatures of only 6-9c and chance of severe frost overnight into Monday.
OUTLOOK .... November continues to bring ups and downs in the temperature into the next week with it being quite similar to the week we're in right now. Very changeable with some nice sunny chilly days mixed with wetter, milder and cloudier ones. Blocking over Greenland and the Arctic seems to becoming a much more major feature for the second half of November which needs a lot of attention as it could influence the weather and bring a more sustained cold spell. November though right now is still looking very changeable.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Thursday, 9 November, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY .... Becoming sunny in the majority of places after a cloudy start for a time before some rain will push into the west during the evening in mild westerlies. Temperatures of 9-13c.
TONIGHT .... Cloudy and breezy with scattered rain around which could turn quite persistent in the north before clearing southeastwards by dawn. Mild night of 5-10c.
FRIDAY .... Similar to Thursday but it will be mostly sunny to start the day before it begins to cloud up ahead of rain pushing into the west during the afternoon with winds from a moderate westerly direction. This rain is likely to become quite heavy Friday night with strengthening westerlies. Mild again with temperatures of 8-13c.
SATURDAY .... Cool and sunny with scattered showers to the north. The south might be cloudier for a time with Friday's rain going on and off here. Winds will become a northwesterly direction making it feel chillier. Temperatures of 7-10c.
SUNDAY .... Cold and sunny with showers up to the north. Unlike Saturday, winds will be very gusty on Sunday making it feel very chilly. The crisp Winter or late Autumn sun adding to the chill factor. Temperatures of only 6-9c. Sunday night will be very frosty getting down to -1 or -2c possibly.
MONDAY .... Starting off frosty and cold with a lot of sunshine before clouding over from the west ahead of a band of rain pushing eastwards turning the winds back into the west for a time.
OUTLOOK .... Lots of ups and downs in temperature and weather conditions for November next week. Blocking still seemingly consistent on all models and likely to impact us majorly for the latter part of the month and possibly into Winter.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Friday, 10 November, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
Thanks to Sryanbruen for keeping the forecasts flowing the past two days.
TODAY ... Increasing cloud, strong westerly winds developing 50-80 km/hr by afternoon and evening, although not as windy in Ulster ... outbreaks of rain becoming more persistent (10-15 mm by late tonight). Mild with highs of 11 to 14 C.
TONIGHT ... Strong westerly winds for most of the south, veering northwest and easing in central and northern counties. Rain continuing rather heavy at times in most of the south and some central counties. Lows near 10 C across the south, 4-7 C further north.
SATURDAY ... More intervals of light rain or drizzle for the south, occasional clearing further north, temperatures close to 10 C most of the day in the south and 7 C across the north. Turning quite cold later in the day especially north of a Galway to Dublin line.
SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, rather cold and breezy, winds northwest 40-60 km/hr, morning lows -1 to +3 C and afternoon highs 6 to 9 C.
MONDAY will see a return to milder weather with some rain at times, highs near 11 C and winds increasing to westerly 50-80 km/hr.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Milder by mid-week with highs 12-14 C by about Wednesday. Then turning colder again, as this up and down trend continues in a strong westerly flow.
My weather while on the road was rather wintry with some heavy wet snow at times en route Thursday, back to rain and milder on the coast.0 -
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Saturday, 11 November, 2017
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Rain and milder air are slowly losing the battle as somewhat colder air presses slowly south, which will mean a cool, dry day for most of the north, and outbreaks of light rain further south but eventually turning cooler there as well, with a slow clearing trend. As the system loses energy, it becomes less breezy as well, so even the south coast will eventually see lighter westerly winds before they shift to a northerly direction. Highs about 11 or 12 C in the south, 6 to 9 C north.
TONIGHT ... Turning quite cold away from the milder south coast, and with some clearing, a chance of frost will develop. There could be isolated wintry showers but mainly a dry trend, lows -1 to +4 C.
SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, rather cold, highs 6 to 9 C, except 10 to 12 C near west coast.
MONDAY ... Morning frost, lows -2 to +4 C, then increasing cloud and outbreaks of light rain, milder by afternoon and evening, highs 9 to 12 C.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY are looking mild and dry with highs 10 to 12 C, until late Wednesday when a band of light rain will sweep through in advance of colder air.
OUTLOOK ... Quite cold late in the week with a risk of mixed wintry showers, snow on hills, hail more likely near sea level, highs only 4 to 7 C. Further down the road, although there will be a few variations, the general trend looks quite cold and there are some marginal chances for isolated flurries at times when winds turn more to the northeast. So far, nothing as dramatic as the Nov 2010 events on these charts but certainly colder than average at times.
My local weather was sunny with cloudy intervals and mild with highs near 10 C.0
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