Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 27 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Hazy sunshine and once any fog or mist clears away, it should be quite warm with highs inland 17-21 C, 14-17 C near east and south coasts. The one exception might be a brief shower around Belmullet late this afternoon and generally more cloud in parts of western Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Clear with a few cloudy intervals, some fog or mist mostly in valleys inland, lows 4-8 C although milder near some coasts. There seems to be a good chance of seeing the total eclipse of the Moon between 3 a.m. and about 4:30 a.m. (Monday).

MONDAY to THURSDAY will continue in much the same theme of mild to warm days, a mixture of cloud and hazy sunshine, and somewhat cool nights especially in the inland valleys. In general, highs will average about 18 or 19 but could reach the low 20s in a few spots if there's enough sunshine. In a southeast (later east) wind flow of about 40-60 km/hr much of the time, east and south coasts will be somewhat cooler than other places, 14-17 C.

By FRIDAY and SATURDAY, expect slight changes with somewhat cooler temperatures in a rather brisk east to southeast wind, and southern coastal counties could see low cloud, mist and fog with rain just offshore if not reaching outer coastal margins. Highs will be about 14-16 C by then.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There is some uncertainty about timing and details but it does seem likely to turn rather cold for a few days around the middle to end of the following week, with highs possibly dipping to 7-10 C and slight frosts developing.

No major changes in outlook for the tropical storm potential discussed in yesterday's forecast, and my local weather became sunny around lunch time with a pleasant high of about 19 C. Clear and cool outside now. I hope to see the total eclipse of the Moon and the best part about it here is that it takes place right after sunset (and moonrise). If you're reading this in eastern North America though, have a look around 10:30 p.m. Sunday in the eastern time zone.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 28 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Expect another fine day with any morning mist gradually dissolving so that sunshine will dominate, although with some risk of low cloud near a few outer coasts. Moderate southeast winds 30-50 km/hr at times will mean that east and south coasts will remain a bit cooler (15-17 C) than inland and western counties (18-20 C). One or two spots could even hit 21 C.

TONIGHT ... Little change, clear with mist or fog patches developing, lows generally 4-7 C, milder near some coasts and colder in frost hollows (Mountdillon was reading 1 degree C at 0600h, quite a bit colder than any other reporting station, this sort of variation often happens in calm, clear weather under a strong inversion).

TUESDAY to FRIDAY now expected to remain similar, sunny intervals, perhaps a bit more cloud on average towards the end of the week, but temperatures generally staying in a similar range, nights 4-7 C but with variations, and days around 18-20 C again with some cooler coasts and perhaps an isolated warmer value.

NEXT WEEKEND the chances of this fine spell continuing will gradually fall below 50-50 as the high loses its dominant influence. Earlier ideas of how it would break down are being replaced by the arrival of unsettled weather from the west now, the moisture that was expected to push in from the southeast seems to be almost totally dried out by the time it reaches northern France now. So the current leading theory is that by Sunday or Monday there will be cooler westerly winds and showers (13-15 C). This regime may continue with a few nicer days thrown into the mix, anything really cold is now being squeezed out before it gets this far south.

While former TS Ida has almost died out, a new candidate is emerging near the Bahamas and that one could get a name soon. My local weather on Sunday was clear and sunny, and just after sunset we had a good view of the rising eclipsed moon, although it was a bit hard to find until it gained a bit of elevation in the twilight.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 29 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Another warm, bright day in store, probably a bit more high cloud spreading in at times, but highs once again near 18-20 C. Breezes from the southeast at about 30-50 km/hr at times.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, mist or fog patches forming, rather cold inland, staying mild near coasts and larger cities. Lows in a rather wide range as a result, 1-4 C rural inland valleys to 8-11 C in warmer coastal spots.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will continue similar although breezes will begin to slacken as the core of high pressure settles closer to Ulster and Leinster. This may also promote slightly colder nights with more chance of isolated frost and also denser fog patches near ponds and small lakes. The days will continue fair with considerable high cloud but some intervals of more direct sunshine too. Highs 14-17 C near east and south coasts, 17-20 C further west, but probably dropping very slightly each day to a more average 14-17 C range for all by end of the week. Changes will be slight especially in western counties.

SATURDAY currently looks to be a transitional day with increasing cloud and a renewed stronger southeast to south wind at 40-60 km/hr. Rain may be edging towards the west coast by Saturday night. Highs about 15 or 16 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY look more unsettled with gusty south to southwest winds, passing showers, and the risk of some heavier bursts of rain especially over western counties. Highs will continue about 15 or 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for generally unsettled spells to continue with the occasional dry interval between fronts, as we get back to more of a southwest to west Atlantic-dominated flow. Highs 13-15 C.

BRITAIN will have similar weather but it would likely be closer to 15 C in parts of eastern England and most of the north including much of Scotland where nights could be more frosty too.

Now, the weather news of the day is that Joaquin has been born east of the Bahamas where he (it) is circling around gathering strength and threatening to make a run north towards the east coast of the U.S. by late this week or over the weekend. Some models show it tracking inland near New York City, at an intensity somewhat weaker than Sandy in October 2012 but near the boundary between tropical storm and hurricane (and a few models have a stronger solution than that!) We should underline that it is early in the life cycle and steering currents are not that strongly defined. Also, what's left of former Tropical Storm Ida are drifting west towards the general area and could try to redevelop as a sort of tag-along feature that would most likely track towards Cape Cod and Newfoundland. So there may be some fairly significant impacts from this development, stay tuned. For the time being, a weaker non-tropical front near Savannah GA is spreading rain up the southeast coast but it's sunny and warm for several more days in the northeast U.S. with highs 25-28 C. The western parts of North America are generally very warm and my local weather on Monday was sunny and quite warm at 22 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 30 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A few cloudy intervals in Munster this morning, otherwise mostly sunny with occasional patches of higher cloud (conditions may be good for spreading out contrails) and warm again by mid-day with highs 18-21 C. Winds becoming somewhat slacker so feeling very warm inland.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog patches, isolated frost in valleys under almost calm conditions, lows 2-6 C for many, outside that range for some cold valleys and milder coasts.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue very similar with light winds, sunny skies but a few cloudy intervals possible, highs both days about 16 C east to 18 C west, and morning lows on Friday similar to the "tonight" forecast above, 2 to 6 on average.

SATURDAY will also start out fairly clear and cool, then cloud will begin to increase rather slowly across the southwest, higher cloud will reach Leinster and Ulster at times, and southeast winds will pick up again to 35-55 km/hr as the high pressure centre to the northeast begins to retreat. Lows 3-7 C and highs 14-17 C.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy but rain will be rather slow to arrive and may hold off much of the day except in Kerry where it could begin during the afternoon. Moderate southeast to south winds, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

MONDAY will see some heavy showers at times, 5-10 mm rain likely, and highs will be 14 or 15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for more unsettled weather to the end of the week, then a colder push from the north which may try to hold back a strong low that will eventually turn winds to the east and bring heavy rainfalls around the second weekend of October. That won't be associated with Joaquin as it appears now, as that future hurricane is likely to move well north of Ireland when it leaves North America (see details in that section of the forecast) ...

For BRITAIN, most of the above will be similar if perhaps delayed a day or two in terms of the dry spell breaking down.

Now for the big weather news, which is still in the speculative range as models are not quite in total agreement ... Joaquin is already on the verge of becoming a hurricane east of the Bahamas. Most guidance shows it intensifying to around cat-3 intensity east of the Carolinas by Friday or Saturday, and quite a few models then slam the storm into Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and the Washington DC region. Some depictions are already showing potential for a major storm event with high damage potential. A few scenarios bring the same results or somewhat weaker to New Jersey and New York City instead (those areas would be affected anyway in the DC track option). However, the European model shows a much different track heading out to sea far to the east of other guidance. In that event, the eventual fate of Joaquin would be to become a regular low in the central Atlantic, heading for Ireland. So I should stress that a very strong Joaquin that hits the east coast of the U.S. is not likely to arrive in Ireland, only a rapidly weakening lesser version would be likely to head your way. So this will be the focus of a lot of meteorological scrutiny over the next few days, if the European model is wrong this time (it had a very good handle on Sandy in 2012) and other models are right, there is going to be at the very least a significant storm if not a disastrous outcome (there is already speculation of potential 10 inch rains, major storm surges and 100 mph wind gusts for some part of the landfall zone). ... By way of complete contrast to all that, it was a perfect late summer type of day here on Tuesday, with a high of 24 and very calm conditions, an ideal day to work on one's golf game.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 1 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for dense fog covering fairly widespread regions of inland southeast and some other places this morning, with near-zero visibility likely to persist to around 0930h in some cases. This may redevelop but not necessarily in the same locations tomorrow morning. Drive with extreme caution.


TODAY ... Dense fog in some areas this morning, misty or cloudy with some hazy sunshine getting through later, not quite as warm with highs 15-17 C for most, 18 C in a few places if the sun breaks through.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with clear intervals, fog or mist becoming widespread, some dense fog with near zero visibility by morning. Lows 3-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, some persistent fog or low cloud, light winds becoming east to southeast 30 km/hr in southern counties. Highs 14-16 C.

SATURDAY will also start out fairly clear and cool, then cloud will begin to increase rather slowly across the southwest, higher cloud will reach Leinster and Ulster at times, and southeast winds will pick up again to 35-55 km/hr as the high pressure centre to the northeast begins to retreat. Lows 3-7 C and highs 14-17 C.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy but rain will be rather slow to arrive and may hold off much of the day except in Kerry where it could begin during the afternoon. Moderate southeast to south winds, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

MONDAY will see some heavy showers at times, 5-15 mm rain likely, and highs will be 14 or 15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for more unsettled weather to the end of the week, and a moderately high chance that remnants of Joaquin will arrive towards the end of the week with stronger winds and some risk of heavy rain (at this point there are no indications of severe storm conditions, just a standard autumn rain and wind event). More discussion on Joaquin follows in the North American forecast below.

Conditions in BRITAIN will be broadly similar to the above forecasts and the dry spell will be over there by about Monday morning on average.

Hurricane Joaquin has been rapidly intensifying all day and recently was measured at cat-3 strength with a central pressure below 950 mbs. It is moving gradually west-south-west into the central Bahamas where it could do quite a bit of damage if there is no sudden turn to the north today. Eventually this hurricane almost certainly will turn north and drift away from the Bahamas, but by Saturday tracks begin to diverge, on different guidance models, to the extent that by Monday the hurricane could be anywhere between the inland portions of the Carolinas to Bermuda. If it does impact the east coast of the U.S., much will depend on how strong it is by Sunday and Monday, since it could peak at cat-4 east of Georgia before perhaps weakening somewhat off Cape Hatteras. Impacts could be either significant or exceptionally severe depending on wind speeds but heavy rainfall seems to be more of a given, even if the hurricane stays out to sea, a stalled frontal band will drop considerable rainfall. The track then determines how remnants of this storm might affect Ireland. If it heads out to sea early and heads towards Bermuda, then it will weaken faster and probably not be much of an event later next week when it arrives in Ireland, for example the models that show that track have winds of about 70 km/hr for Ireland and 10-20 mm rain, more or less a standard inclement autumn day. Models that take Joaquin inland then tend to loop it around and send it up into eastern Canada and across the North Atlantic towards Iceland or at least Scotland. There again, no large storm impacts are foreseen at this point for Ireland. Thursday-Friday 8-9 October is about when this might take place either way.

My local weather stayed sunny and quite warm on Wednesday; the high was about 22 C.

Astronomy notes: Mercury passed between earth and the Sun on Wednesday, and the Moon passes in front of the bright star Aldebaran as seen from North Pacific regions around 1300h Friday in universal time (that would be around 0600h before sunrise for my location and around 0400h in Alaska).

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 2 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Dense fog will be rather widespread and slower to disperse today, although the visibility may improve somewhat later in the morning before it fully clears away. Some sunny breaks will follow, highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Intervals of clear skies and overcast but with greater risk of fog towards morning. Lows 3-5 C.

SATURDAY ... A few sunny breaks possible during the day, but generally rather cloudy and with the southeast wind picking up, feeling a bit cooler despite similar temperatures (13-15 C).

SUNDAY ... Cloud will become thicker and rain will spread across most regions with strong southeast winds at times 50-70 km/hr, 10-15 mm rainfalls could develop, lasting overnight into early Monday. Highs near 14 C.

MONDAY ... Heavy showers at times, the strong winds will abate for a while then return as south to southwest 40-60 km/hr gusty breezes later. About 5 to 10 mm further rain, highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, breezy, highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Windy, unsettled, and some risk of strong winds and heavy rains from remnants of Joaquin around Friday, depending on its track (see discussion later in this forecast package). Temperatures falling a bit below normal at times by second week of October in a west to northwest flow.

Forecasts for BRITAIN will be generally similar to the above.

Hurricane Joaquin is moving very slowly overnight through the east-central Bahamas where it has 200 km/hr wind gusts that must be doing considerable damage to some islands. Models are continuing to struggle with its next moves, showing generally a slow northward drift today, a faster north to northeast motion past the Carolinas by the weekend, but then solutions diverge to include landfalls in various parts of the eastern U.S., tracks near the coast and past Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, and even a track well out to sea near Bermuda. There is probably even a slight chance of the storm remaining near the Bahamas or starting to meander erratically. Steering currents remain rather weak in the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic which is why the models are having more trouble than usual giving us good guidance on the future track. I am expecting to see more agreement by later Friday. Heavy rain is falling ahead of the hurricane in many parts of the eastern U.S., and a cool high pressure area covers most of the Midwest, Great Lakes and Quebec. Further west, it remains quite warm. We had sunshine after the morning fog lifted, and a high of 21 C on Thursday.

Rooy

Thread views passed the 3 million mark this week , well done MT ,there is obviously a lot of people reading your forecasts on a daily basis for the weather ahead ,thanks for the great service.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 3 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, some persistent low cloud or fog turning to mist but with a few sunny breaks possible by mid-day. Highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, southeast winds picking up in some exposed parts of southern and western counties, lows 7-9 C.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, becoming rather windy especially in the south by late afternoon and evening when E-SE winds of 50-80 km/hr will develop. Rain will hold off in most areas but will slowly move into the south. Highs 14-16 C.

MONDAY ... Overnight (early morning) strong winds and rain, then turning somewhat milder and humid in southerly winds 40-60 km/hr. Morning lows around 10-12 C and afternoon highs 16-19 C.

TUESDAY ... Becoming windy again (SW to W 50-80 km/hr) with squally showers, temperatures around 12-14 C in the morning may fall off slightly by afternoon as colder air rushes in. Partial clearing by late in the day.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, a cold start but starting to turn milder again later in the day, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs 13-16.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Remnants of Joaquin appear likely to rush past Ireland around Thursday night, if it's not a close pass then the cold front of the system will arrive with squally showers. At this point, nothing too extreme is foreseen, wind gusts could approach 90 km/hr in exposed areas and 15-25 mm rainfalls are possible, with temperatures close to 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pattern is likely to remain unsettled with frequent showers and blustery winds at times.

It now appears almost certain that Joaquin will move northeast away from the Bahamas and will avoid hitting any part of the U.S. or Canadian coasts, while cruising along at an increasing pace all weekend and next week, until it reaches some point between Ireland and Iceland. There is then some divergence in the guidance with some models bringing the remnant low closer to northwest Ireland than others. This will spare the eastern U.S. from wind damage apparently, but flooding rains continue from a stalled front that is not able to move until Joaquin gets out of its way. Further west it's cool and dry but trending to warm and dry in the far west. My local weather on Friday was overcast with persistent fog and drizzle, highs near 14 C. Expecting some clearing for the weekend in a fresh northwesterly flow now moving in.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 4 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals this morning mostly in Leinster. Somewhat cool with the east to southeast breezes becoming stronger by late afternoon then increasing to 50-80 km/hr this evening with rain arriving in the south. Highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... The strongest winds will push north in Leinster, and the rain will become more widespread with 10-15 mm expected. Lows 8-10 C.

MONDAY ... Rain tapering to showers, some partial clearing for a while then back to overcast skies with more rain likely as winds pick up again from the south. Warmer and more humid with highs 16-19 C.

TUESDAY ... Early morning rain, fog, chance of thunder then becoming colder in stages with the wind veering to the west at 40-70 km/hr. Squally showers and sunny intervals in the brisk westerly flow. Temperatures steady 12-14 C then falling slightly. About 10-20 mm rain overall.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, chance of showers, a little milder again, after a cold start. Lows 3-6 C and highs 14-17 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy although there could be some sunshine at times in the east, winds gradually increasing from the south, rain near or on the west coast. Lows 4-7 C and highs 15-18 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... The remnant low of Hurricane Joaquin will probably be involved in the weather at this time, but I am not very confident of the current model solutions, especially those showing the low veering north towards Iceland. It would not be surprising if it followed a more southerly track and ended up like Henri in the Biscay region heading for Britain. So at this point, forecast will simply call for the chance of showers and near normal temperatures (14-16 C) with strong winds not yet confirmed but a possibility. Nothing extreme is expected at this point.

The forecast for BRITAIN will follow this same general plan with rain moving in tonight and unsettled conditions much of this week.

Although Joaquin is moving away from the Bahamas and towards Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S. has seen significant rains, with severe flooding in the Carolinas. Some more of this will continue from a stalled low near the southeast coast. Cool high pressure covers the Great Lakes and Midwest regions, and it will continue rather cool in the northeast states under cloud and northeast winds. The far west is generally warmer although parts of western Canada have seen sleety mixes of rain and wet snow. The west coast had sunshine yesterday and will have more today (Sunday). My local weather on Saturday was sunny and warm with fresh northwest winds backing to easterly, highs 21-24 C.

Joaquin will probably bring cat-2 hurricane conditions to Bermuda late today or early tonight as it moves over the island.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 5 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain will continue to push north through Connacht and Ulster, as very mild and humid conditions develop in a moderate southerly flow. Further rain may develop by afternoon near the west coast but other regions will see more isolated showers or drizzle with a few brighter intervals too. Highs about 16-19 C in southerly breezes of 40-60 km/hr by afternoon (some equally strong southeast winds this morning should end soon except in parts of Ulster).

TONIGHT ... Rain, fog or mist and mild temperatures, lows 12-14 C. About 10 to 15 mm rain likely in some places.

TUESDAY ... The east will remain overcast with occasional rain, becoming heavier at times mid-day and afternoon. The west will have periods of rain heavier in the morning, then a slight clearing trend by late afternoon as winds turn westerly and cooler air arrives. Temperatures will be steady 12-15 C and may fall slightly in the west by afternoon.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers, cool and breezy (backing to southwest 40-60 km/hr). Lows 4-7 C and highs 13-15 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, chance of isolated showers but a gradual drying trend seems likely, lows 3-5 C and highs 13-15 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... At this point, remnants of Joaquin seem to be headed just south of Ireland where they may get directed southeast towards Spain and southern France. This outcome is still somewhat uncertain and there remains perhaps a one in three chance that the remnant low will head further north. But if the southerly track verifies, the weather is likely to stay rather dry if overcast, in moderate easterly winds 40-60 km/hr. This may be quite a cool pattern for several days.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... High pressure is likely to crest over Ireland some time around Monday or Tuesday of next week, leading to clear and cold nights with local fog and frost, and crisp, sunny autumnal daytime conditions.

Hurricane Joaquin is passing just north of Bermuda, fortunately it jogged a little north before arriving and the strongest winds have remained to the northwest of the island, with gusts to about 100 km/hr reported on land. It will take most of today for Joaquin to move past Bermuda so these winds will remain fairly constant all day while veering more westerly. Heavy rain continues in South Carolina which has seen very severe flooding. Meanwhile, my local weather has been ideal all weekend, Sunday was sunny and pleasantly warm at 20 C. We have two more days of this fine weather before cloud and some rain later in the week.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 6 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain will very slowly drift inland from the west coast by later this morning, and eventually about 10 mm will fall during the mid-day hours. The east will remain overcast with just a few light showers at first, then some occasional rain, becoming heavier at times by the afternoon. Western coastal counties will see a slight clearing trend by late afternoon as winds turn westerly and cooler air arrives. Temperatures in the west will be steady around 12-15 C and may fall slightly in the afternoon. The east may see somewhat warmer highs of 14-16 C and cooling will arrive fairly late in the afternoon or (for north Leinster, east Ulster) evening.

TONIGHT ... Rain gradually ending across eastern counties, fog or mist patches rather widespread, moderate westerly winds at times, lows 5-7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers, cool and breezy (backing to southwest 40-60 km/hr) with highs 13-15 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, chance of isolated showers but a gradual drying trend seems likely, lows 3-5 C and highs 13-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, but it may remain dry assuming that remnants of Joaquin do not start moving ahead of schedule, with moderate southeast winds, lows 4-6 C and highs 12-15 C.

SATURDAY ... While still uncertain, the guidance generally suggests a risk of rain in some parts of the south and west, and somewhat stronger southeast winds as remnants of Joaquin approach ... one scenario is that the storm will weaken quite steadily and what's left of it will slide south into France or even northern Spain, but another possible outcome is a looping motion of the remnant low off the west coast. We should begin to see more definite indications by late tomorrow.

OUTLOOK ... Assuming the remnants of Joaquin have dissipated by Sunday, or else have moved through the region, higher pressure is likely to be slowly rebuilding, and some guidance suggests quite a long dry spell to follow next week; if the hurricane remnant remains a bit stronger, this high might not be as strong and then more unsettled weather would be likely to follow after a briefer dry interval. Temperatures in any case are expected to remain rather cool with highs about 12-15 C.

Hurricane Joaquin has weakened to category 1 status and is now located about 300 kms northeast of Bermuda. It has yet to encounter the colder water in the central Atlantic, at which time it is predicted to become a "regular" low albeit quite a strong one for a day or two. The latest guidance shows it at various levels of intensity near Ireland, ranging from peak winds of 100 km/hr on strong versions and 50 km/hr on weaker ones, including the European model which has outperformed the pack all through this storm's life cycle so far. In fact, maps just in show Joaquin heading for northern Spain on the weekend and missing Ireland almost completely. My hunch is that this is the correct solution, for one thing Henri did much the same thing in the final analysis, and this seems to be associated with the cold pool in the Atlantic setting the jet stream somewhat further south. However, all options remain "on the table" at this early stage.

My local weather on Monday was pleasant, despite increasing high cloud, and the high was about 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 7 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy in west with occasional showers (1-3 mm), partly cloudy east, isolated showers developing. Moderate southwest winds will also develop during the day, rather cool with highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... A few more showers, but clear intervals developing, fog patches and lows 3-6 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, highs 14-16 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... There now appears to be very little risk of Joaquin's remnant low threatening Ireland, instead it appears headed more towards Portugal and northwest Spain. Even there, only a weak version of the formerly powerful storm is expected. A weak trough of low pressure extending north from the decaying tropical storm to low pressure near Iceland will spread a lot of cloud across Ireland and some light rain at times in Connacht and west Munster, in a moderate southeast to south wind flow that may reach 30-50 km/hr at times. Highs each day near 14 C and lows 7-9 C under cloud, perhaps a bit lower further east (4-7 C) where cloud may be more broken.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Higher pressure will break apart the weak trough and some clearing may follow, rain will become more isolated and perhaps absent altogether by early next week, so there may be some sunshine at times and highs near 15 C but colder nights with some isolated frost. If that spell breaks down (and it may not for several days) it would likely be just a return to cloud and occasional light rain.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy but dry for the most part, and still pleasantly warm at 18 C. Light rain has begun just recently (towards midnight here).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 8 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ...Partly cloudy to sunny skies, just a few isolated and very brief showers in moderate southwest breezes. Highs 14-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals east, mostly cloudy west, lows 4-7 C east and about 7-10 C west.

FRIDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, slight chance of light rain in the far western counties, highs 13-16 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, although more overcast in west, some light rain possible near west coast, lows 5-8 C and highs 13-16 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, but longer sunny intervals developing, lows 3-6 C and highs 13-16 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, frost may develop overnight in some rural areas, highs 14-17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Light rain may return mid-week and the outlook becomes more unsettled towards the following weekend, with temperatures near or slightly below normal values.

Joaquin is now officially "post tropical" although still quite a strong storm north of the Azores. All guidance now agrees that it will weaken and head towards Portugal over the weekend.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with rain (about 20 mm) and the high was 17 C. We're expecting very mild but wet conditions in a southwest flow that now includes Hurricane Oho (located near 30 deg N well to the west of California), remnants of which will hit the Alaska panhandle region on Friday night.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 9 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, slight chance of light rain in the far western counties, highs 13-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, some fog or mist, some light rain or drizzle near west coast, lows generally 7-9 C but possibly a bit lower in parts of the east.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, although more overcast in west, some light rain possible near west coast, and highs 13-16 C. Extensive fog or mist likely by evening and overnight into Sunday morning.

SUNDAY ... Extensive fog, mist or low cloud in the morning, gradually becoming partly cloudy, but longer sunny intervals developing, lows 5-8 C and highs 13-16 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals, frost may develop overnight in some rural areas, but there will probably be extensive low cloud and fog, lows generally 3-7 C and highs 13-16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Some rain and stronger winds likely around Thursday, then a colder spell likely as winds become more northerly. Highs only 10-13 C.

The weather in BRITAIN will generally be similar and extensive low cloud, fog or mist will be mixed with some mid-day partly cloudy intervals.

Joaquin continues to weaken and is heading for northwest Spain and Portugal.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy and rather warm at 20 C. Rain has set in this evening. Remnants of Hurricane Oho are racing north towards the Alaska panhandle region and are currently located about 500 kms west-south-west of my location. A wave forming on the cold front is expected to hit us with heavy rainfalls Friday night into Saturday morning.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 10 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light rain or drizzle should ease off after dropping just 1-2 mm in most places, brief sunny intervals could develop near west coast and through parts of the inland south later. Light southeast winds and highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, occasional drizzle or light rain possible, mist or fog becoming rather widespread, lows 5-9 C.

SUNDAY ... Morning drizzle near east coast and mostly cloudy elsewhere, but probably brightening up for the afternoon for most, highs 14-16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Next week currently looks generally settled if a little cloudy at times, but if skies clear they would likely become foggy at night and then that fog would be difficult to disperse in light east to northeast winds. So, the general theme will be cloudy with some sunny intervals, mostly dry, with the risk of localized frost and dense fog at night. Highs each day near 14 or 15 C and lows in the range of -1 to +5 C except a bit milder near south and west coasts. ... Then the following week continues to look settled under stagnant high pressure, and this could lead to very persistent fog as the charts are indicating a persistent temperature inversion keeping a lid on the lower part of the atmosphere and preventing much mixing.

The outlook for BRITAIN is virtually the same in all regards through the period, if anyone was hoping to watch big rugby games in downpours and mud, that may not be happening (but I hope Irish wins will be).

In North America, many regions will be enjoying "Indian summer" weather conditions of hazy sunshine and temperatures several degrees above normal values. On the west coast we are expecting more cloud and some rain at times but also quite warm. On Friday here, it was overcast but close to 20 C and rain held off with just a few trace amounts.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 11 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few intervals of drizzle this morning, light east to northeast winds, highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... A few clear intervals developing, but fog patches inland south, northerly breezes in exposed locations, lows 3-7 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, moderate northerly winds at times, just a little cooler with highs 12-15 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, possible morning frosts inland. Lows between -1 and 5 C and highs 12 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated morning frost and fog patches, lows between -1 and 4 C with highs 13 to 17 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, possible light rain in northern counties, but this is expected to fragment to light showers further south, and it could stay dry near the south coast. Lows 3-7 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Slightly cooler by Friday, then slowly warming up for a few days, under rebuilding high pressure.

Over in BRITAIN, similar conditions in general, would expect partly cloudy skies in Cardiff later today with temperatures near 14 C. It may become foggy during the evening.

Meanwhile, my local weather on Saturday (and I was out in it chasing the little white balls) was rather windy with periods of light rain, and it was quite warm at 17 C with almost the same dewpoint.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 12 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: New moon occurs at 0106h Tuesday, which of course is overnight in western Europe, but mid-day around Alaska and the central Pacific, no eclipse anywhere on earth this time.


TODAY ... Extensive low cloud and mist or fog this morning will gradually clear to a mixture of sunshine and cloud, with moderate northerly winds 30-50 km/hr at times, and highs 12-15 C.

TONIGHT ... While low cloud, fog and mist are likely to persist near north coast and then spread inland, any clear locations after midnight could see frost, with lows potentially falling to -1 C although most places 3-6 C.

TUESDAY ... Early fog and scattered frost, then becoming partly sunny with longer cloudy intervals in parts of the north, and highs 12 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated morning frost and fog patches, lows between -1 and 4 C with highs 13 to 17 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, possible light rain in northern counties (only 1-3 mm likely), but even that is expected to fragment to light showers further south, and it could stay dry near the south coast. Lows 3-7 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Slightly cooler by Friday, then slowly warming up for a few days, under rebuilding high pressure. Highs near 13 C Friday then 15-17 C possible over the following weekend and for a few days next week. This dry and quiet weather pattern is expected to break down in about ten days to two weeks (other than minor interruptions as described in the forecast) and that might lead to a spell of windy, wet weather near the end of the month.

The weather in BRITAIN will follow a similar plan.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny with increasing afternoon cloud, generally dry although it became very misty around 4 p.m. to sunset. We have a holiday here today (Canadian version of Thanksgiving, and across the border it is Columbus Day, also a holiday there). Because of that fact, I am reminded that the worst wind storm to hit this region in modern times (remnants of a central Pacific hurricane, Freda) took place late on 12th October of 1962. This was a more intense windstorm than the October 1987 storm in the U.K. although fairly similar in evolution. Many large trees were felled by wind gusts that reached 200 km/hr in exposed areas around southwest B.C. and western Washington state. On that side of the border, the storm is known as the Columbus Day storm of 1962, here it is known as Hurricane Freda.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 13 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Frost in some inland locations and fog will both gradually clear away to give a generally sunny day with some cloudy intervals developing in the southwest. Highs 12-16 C in light northeast or variable breezes.

TONIGHT ... Some cloudy intervals but enough clear skies to promote rather extensive frost and fog, lows -2 to +5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Fog may be quite slow to clear in places, but a slow increase in cloud may mean that when it does clear, temperatures may not rise very quickly. Expect rather variable results for high temperatures with some valley locations staying around 10-12 C, other places could warm to 14-15 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable amounts of cloud, morning lows -2 to +4 C with frost quite likely in the south and central counties, then some sun with cloudy intervals, just a chance of a brief shower in Ulster mainly as the incoming weak front is now looking even weaker. Highs 13-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, slightly cooler in moderate northerly breezes. Lows 1-4 C and highs 11-13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Another high will slowly build over the country so there will be a similar progression of mostly dry and stable weather conditions, probably even more fog and frost involved as nights get longer, but fairly similar daytime readings in the 12-15 C range. This spell could break down with more of a southeast to south flow of moist air, or a westerly flow with showers. That may be towards the end of next week, so basically it looks like almost two weeks of dry weather in general (although with plenty of dew when the fog begins to lift).

My local weather on Monday was overcast with light rain and a slowly thickening fog which seems to be dissipating now that the wind has begun to pick up a bit. It was rather chilly with a high of about 13 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 14 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some fog and isolated frost this morning should gradually clear, to a mixture of sunshine and cloudy intervals, with isolated very brief showers possible in north Leinster and east Ulster, with light northeast breezes becoming more variable in the afternoon. Highs will range from 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Low cloud or fog will become fairly widespread, and some local frost is possible again, lows -1 to +4 C.

THURSDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine, isolated brief showers possible, but most places remaining dry. Highs 12-15 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks, chance of isolated showers in eastern counties. Light to moderate northeast winds, feeling rather cold except in sheltered sunny locations. Lows generally 2-5 C and highs 11-14 C.

OUTLOOK ... More frost and mid-day sunshine early next week then a gradual change in the pattern to more unsettled and breezy conditions in a southwest to west flow, near normal temperatures may eventually drift a bit above the late October averages as winds back more southerly.

Over in BRITAIN, it's a similar story except for southeast England which is close enough to a low over western Germany that they might see some occasional drizzle or light rain and somewhat stronger northeast winds at times from tomorrow to the early part of the weekend.

My local weather on Tuesday was increasingly sunny with highs near 14 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 15 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few sunny intervals, extensive mist or fog this morning may begin to redevelop soon after sunset. Highs 11-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, fog or mist patches, lows 2-5 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, slight chance of a brief shower in eastern counties, but most places dry, highs 11-14 C.

WEEKEND ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals both days, with light to moderate east winds at times, morning lows -1 to +4 C and afternoon highs about 10-14 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... A little more sunshine likely as high pressure crests over Ireland, also colder nights, so lows -2 to +4 C and highs 10-15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Gradually becoming rather breezy (westerly winds) with mostly cloudy skies, chance of rain by end of next week. Highs 11-16 C.

The picture for BRITAIN will be similar but expect some light rain or drizzle in parts of southeast England at times from Friday to Sunday, further west it will be more similar to Ireland with mostly dry if rather cloudy conditions.

My local weather on Wednesday was foggy to start, then sunny with high cloud during the mid-day hours. The high was about 15 C. We're expecting a couple of very warm days now as southerly winds bring in the desert air ahead of a weak trough of low pressure.

I hope to have a winter seasonal outlook ready by this coming weekend.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 16 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, with some fog or mist for a while this morning, light northeast winds. Highs 11-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, fog or mist developing, lows 2-5 C.

SATURDAY to TUESDAY will continue dry and generally rather cold with the possibility of sharp frosts at night, widespread fog or mist that may be slow to clear at times, but also some sunshine in the daytime mix. Each day, highs will be around 12 to 14 C, and morning lows will be 2 to 5 C on average, although -2 C in some inland valleys.

OUTLOOK for next week beyond Tuesday is for stronger southwest winds to develop, bringing in a few intervals of rain, at this point only 5-15 mm appears likely, and somewhat higher temperatures both at night (5-8 C) and in the daytime (13-16 C). This spell may become even milder at some point as stronger low pressure develops to the west towards the end of the month.

Over in BRITAIN, the above scenario will be generally in play, but southeast England could see some occasional light rain over the weekend in more significant northeast winds of 40-60 km/hr, and this could keep temperatures in the 9-11 C range when the bands of drizzle or rain materialize. For south Wales, expect a mixture of sun and cloud with daytime readings on Sunday around 13 C.

Across NORTH AMERICA, much colder air is on the move south and will be sweeping into central and eastern states and most of central Canada, while it stays warmer in the west. In the Great Lakes region the air mass will probably be cold enough to bring local lake effect snow or hail showers. Meanwhile my local weather on Thursday was warm in hazy sunshine and the high was 19 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 17 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


From now to Tuesday, there will probably be more difference from one location to another, than from one day to another. The basic picture will be one of widespread cloud, but a few breaks. At night, these breaks in the overcast will result (as with this morning's variable temperatures) in localized frost while many other places remain several degrees milder.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, any frost or fog in the inland northwest should slowly dissipate, then all areas will have cloudy skies with a few sunny breaks. Spotty drizzle may accompany some of the low cloud in the east. Highs 11-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, lows 3-7 C with a few clear spots dropping as low as -1 C with local frost (this most likely to be inland south or west).

SUNDAY and MONDAY will continue with mostly cloudy skies, a few more sunny breaks likely on Monday in particular, patchy drizzle in parts of Leinster and east Ulster, and highs 12-15 C with the overnight lows 2-6 C for most, isolated frost for a few.

TUESDAY will see intervals of cloud and sunshine in the south, cloud and light rain at times in the north. Moderate southwest winds will develop across the north 40-60 km/hr. Lows 3-8 C and highs 12-16 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring some showers or periods of rain, heavier in Ulster, but generally 5-15 mm amounts, lows 6-10 C and highs 12-16 C. Moderate westerly winds veering more northwesterly.

OUTLOOK calls for further unsettled spells and near normal temperatures that may rise a degree or two above normal at times before the end of October.

The weekend in BRITAIN will be generally cloudy with outbreaks of light rain in the southeast, and a few sunny breaks in the west, more frequent sunny breaks in Scotland, highs generally 12-15 C.

My local weather on Friday was sunny and rather warm at 21 C.

Please note, I'll have a summary of my winter outlook available with tomorrow's forecast or around mid-day at the latest.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 18 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, some morning mist or fog.
Highs 12-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, some local fog may become rather dense, lows generally 4-7 C, one or two locations could fall closer to frost levels.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, although overcast most of the time in Ulster where light rain may develop late in the day. Highs 12-15 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, lows 4-7 C and highs 13-16 C, rain developing across the north as winds increase to WSW 40-60 km/hr late afternoon and evening.

WEDNESDAY ... Early morning rain may be heavy at times, then windy and very mild, morning temperatures 11-13 C and maximum values 14-17 C. Moderate to strong westerly winds 50-80 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Windy with showers, turning colder, lows 6-8 C and highs about 10-12 C, winds west to northwest 40-70 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Cool and dry for several days, then turning a bit milder again in southeast winds with rain possible towards end of the month at least in southern counties.

As colder air sweeps across eastern NORTH AMERICA, it remains quite mild in the west. My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with a few spits of light rain and also a few sunny breaks, with a high near 17 C.

I have posted a preliminary winter forecast in the Winter 2015-16 thread at this link:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057483044&page=16

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 19 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, with the chance of light rain late in the day in parts of Ulster and north Connacht. Highs 12-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy with fog patches, lows 5-8 C.

TUESDAY ... Some morning sunny breaks may develop but after that, back to mostly cloudy skies with highs 13-16 C, rain developing across the north as winds increase to WSW 40-60 km/hr late afternoon and evening. Peak gusts likely to hit 90 km/hr in exposed coastal locations around midnight.

WEDNESDAY ... Early morning rain may be heavy at times, then windy and very mild, morning temperatures 11-13 C and maximum values 14-17 C, possibly 18 C across eastern counties. Moderate to strong westerly winds 50-80 km/hr with some higher gusts likely near exposed coasts.

THURSDAY ... Windy with showers, turning colder, lows 6-8 C and highs about 10-12 C, winds west to northwest 40-70 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers developing late in the day, highs 8-11 C.

WEEKEND ... Partly cloudy, breezy, passing showers and highs 9-12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Breezy to windy, occasional bursts of moderate or heavy rain and rather mild early in the week (near 14 C) then turning colder in stages, highs may be held down to about 7-9 C towards the middle to end of next week before another milder spell develops near the end of the month.

The weather across eastern NORTH AMERICA has turned quite cold with frosts and lake effect snow flurries, highs for the major cities of the northeast in the range of 10-15 C, only 5-10 C in the Great Lakes region. This will not last too long before warmer air from the west arrives. Meanwhile, my local weather on Sunday was overcast with occasional light rain, and the high was about 13 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 20 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, a few passing showers but a more organized band of rainfall (5-10 mm) reaching the north and west late this afternoon and persisting overnight, highs about 14 C. Winds slowly increasing to about 50-70 km/hr from the west backing to southwest.

TONIGHT ... Rain will be intermittent in most regions, steadier in parts of Ulster, then it will ease off to drizzle and end towards morning. A much milder night with temperatures steady in the 10-13 C range, with gusty southwest winds 50-80 km/hr in exposed areas.

WEDNESDAY ... A much milder day with moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, highs 15 to 18 C (likely warmest in lee of Wicklow hills and in some parts of the inland southwest). While staying rather cloudy, the sun may poke through the scudding overcast at times.

THURSDAY ... Although turning somewhat colder during the night with morning "lows" of 7-9 C, fronts will be largely dry and perhaps marked by occasional drizzle, followed by a mixture of cloud and sunshine. Another weak front will arrive late in the day after highs of 11-13 C. Winds may be somewhat stronger again during the day at 50-70 km/hr westerly.

FRIDAY ... Morning showers and gusty winds, turning cooler, temperatures steady around 8 to 10 C in west to northwest winds 50-70 km/hr. Then with backing winds (southwest 50-70 km/hr) rain will sweep in from the southwest and bring 10-20 mm overnight.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Once the early Saturday rain moves through, the rest of the weekend looks breezy (windy in north) and relatively mild at 10-13 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Possible heavy rain around Monday-Tuesday and strong winds at times from southwest, then another period of breezy, variable Atlantic dominated weather culminating in rather unsettled conditions around the end of the month and temperatures slowly falling through the week to reach values of about 5-8 C.

My local weather on Monday here was overcast and mild with spits of rain and a change in government (now there's something you don't find in many weather reports). The high was just about everyone under 50.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 21 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Very mild with some sunshine developing at times for eastern counties mainly, moderate to strong west-southwest winds 50-70 km/hr. Highs 15-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Brief showers, cloudy, windy and turning slightly cooler after midnight, winds westerly 50-70 km/hr, lows 9-12 C.

THURSDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine. Another weak front will arrive late in the day after highs of 11-13 C. Winds may be somewhat stronger again during the day at 50-70 km/hr westerly.

FRIDAY ... Morning showers and gusty winds, turning cooler, temperatures steady around 8 to 10 C in west to northwest winds 50-70 km/hr. Then with backing winds (southwest 50-70 km/hr) rain will sweep in from the southwest and bring 10-20 mm overnight.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Once the early Saturday rain moves through, the rest of the weekend looks breezy (windy in north) and relatively mild at 10-13 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Monday is likely to bring rain and possibly east winds now that the storm track has shifted further south taking a deep low past the south coast. Expect 10-20 mm rain and somewhat raw northeast winds during the passage of this system (9-11 C), to be followed by slow clearing and rather cool temperatures mid-week (6-9 C), probably to be followed by milder weather near the end of the month (10-13 C).

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with just a few brighter intervals in the afternoon, and a rather mild high of 15 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 22 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rather windy (WSW 50-80 km/hr) with a few spits of rain but gradually clearing later this morning to a partly cloudy mix, not as mild as yesterday with highs about where we find temperatures now, 11-13 C, possibly near 14 C at their peak.

TONIGHT ... Breezy with variable amounts of cloud and isolated showers, lows about 5 to 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, southwest winds 40-70 km/hr, highs 12-15 C with rain developing in west by afternoon and spreading east in the evening. About 10-20 mm potential by Saturday morning for most, the heavier amounts will be from west Munster to north Leinster and mostly overnight Friday-Saturday.

SATURDAY ... Gradually clearing with moderate westerly winds, morning lows about 7 C and afternoon highs about 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Some sunny intervals in south, occasional rain in north, then becoming generally overcast with moderate southeast winds developing during the night into Monday morning. Light rain possible in southwest by evening or overnight. Lows on Sunday 3-6 C and highs 11-14 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy (SE 40-60 km/hr) with occasional rain (10-15 mm likely in southwest, may be almost dry in some other regions if storm slows down as some guidance suggests), and these winds are likely to back around to east then northeast during the day and into Monday night, with temperatures steady 8-11 C for most.

TUESDAY ... Occasional rain, the winds will remain steady from east to northeast at 40-60 km/hr if the storm approaches slowly and weakens, but some other guidance would suggest stronger winds due to a faster moving system that weakens more over Britain -- so it's wait and see on the details here.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cool (6-9 C) and generally dry if perhaps drizzly for a few days once this system dies out and moves past (or perhaps just dies in the Biscay region or France), then back to milder southwest winds and possible rain at times towards end of month and early November (with highs around 10-13 C).

BRITAIN can expect this same sequence of weather events although in general about half a day later, meanwhile it's worth noting that the eastern Mediterranean region can expect severe wind gusts and possible severe thunderstorms with cold fronts developing later today, could be a bumpy flight for anyone heading to Athens or Istanbul. Poor sailing (or drifting in open boats) conditions around Aegean Sea, southern Adriatic and eastern Med.

Warmer weather has now returned to most regions of North America and my local weather on Wednesday was overcast with spits of light rain, highs around 14 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 23 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Increasing cloud, south to southwest winds 40-70 km/hr, and highs 12-15 C with rain developing in west by afternoon, 5-15 mm likely in Atlantic coastal counties by nightfall.

TONIGHT ... Rain will continue to spread east overnight, and most locations will eventually have totals of 10-20 mm, some potential for 30 mm with local road flooding in central-eastern counties, combined with fog making for hazardous driving conditions. Moderate southerly winds will ease to light westerly towards the end of the rainfall. Lows 9-12 C.

SATURDAY ... Gradually clearing with moderate westerly winds 40-60 km/hr, morning temperatures in the west about 7 C, east 9-12 C, then afternoon highs about 13 C.

SUNDAY ... Some sunny intervals in south, occasional rain in north where 5 to 15 mm possible during the day, then becoming generally overcast with moderate southeast winds 50-80 km/hr developing during the night into Monday morning. Moderate rain possible in southwest by evening or overnight with 10-20 mm likely. Lows on Sunday 3-6 C and highs 11-14 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy (S-SE 50-80 km/hr) with occasional rain (10-15 mm likely in southwest, may be closer to 5-10 mm further east), and these winds are likely to back around to E-SE into Monday night, with temperatures steady around 10-12 C on Monday and Monday night. Note, I was asked if a storm might disrupt the marathon event in Dublin -- I would say that the incoming weather is perhaps one level lower than a "storm" as such, and it will certainly be a challenge but check the route for exposure to the southeast as some parts may be sheltered, and prepare for variable amounts of rainfall that may amount to a soaking at times. There's some chance that the worst of the weather may hold off until most are finished running too.

TUESDAY ... Occasional rain and variable skies with some intermittent fog or mist near coasts, southeast backing to easterly winds less gusty 30-50 km/hr as the storm gradually loses intensity near the Cork-Kerry coasts, but a secondary burst of moderate to heavy rain could move up into Leinster from the south by afternoon or evening. Temperatures steady in the range 8-11 C. About 5-15 mm further rainfall on average.

WEDNESDAY ... Scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, some intervals of fog or mist, temperatures steady 6-9 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain and stronger winds likely with gusts to 70 km/hr from the southeast veering to southwest late in the day, temperatures steady 8-11 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, colder with morning lows 2-5 C and isolated frost possible, highs 7-9 C.

SATURDAY 31st OCTOBER and SUNDAY 1st NOVEMBER ... Milder again with southwesterly winds, some outbreaks of rain likely, highs near 11 C.

For BRITAIN, expect this same general sequence of weather but with the Monday-Tuesday rain and wind somewhat less active in northern regions.

My local weather on Thursday was very pleasant with a mixture of sunshine and cloud, a hint of sea fog dispersed into the hazy conditions near the coast, and a warm high of about 16 C. We have had a full colour change now and only a slight (20-30%) leaf fall so far.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 24 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Be on the lookout for some flooded roadways this morning after 20-30 mm overnight rainfalls, and further rainfall of 5-10 mm in Leinster which should clear east about 0930 to 10 o'clock, to be followed by gradually partial clearance with moderate westerly winds 40-60 km/hr, then some isolated showers developing but little by way of additional rainfall accumulation, and afternoon highs about 12 or 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Rather cold by recent standards, at least in some eastern and inland southern locations, but temperatures are likely to rise somewhat after midnight, as some light rain spreads into Connacht and Ulster. Moderate southerly winds redeveloping. Lows 4-7 C except 8-10 C Atlantic coasts and parts of north.

SUNDAY ... Some sunny intervals in south, occasional rain in north where 5 to 15 mm possible during the day, then becoming generally overcast with moderate southeast winds 50-80 km/hr developing during the night into Monday morning. Moderate rain possible in southwest by evening or overnight with 10-20 mm likely, highs 11-14 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy (S-SE 50-80 km/hr) with occasional rain (10-15 mm likely in southwest, may be closer to 5-10 mm further east), and these winds are likely to back around to E-SE into Monday night, with temperatures steady around 10-12 C on Monday and Monday night. Note on marathon, no big changes in outlook, with any luck the heavier rain won't arrive until near end of the event, but southeast winds may be a nuisance factor and a challenge in a few parts of the course.

TUESDAY ... Occasional rain and variable skies with some intermittent fog or mist near coasts, southeast backing to easterly winds less gusty 30-50 km/hr as the storm gradually loses intensity near the Cork-Kerry coasts, but a secondary burst of moderate to heavy rain could move up into Leinster from the south by mid-day or afternoon reaching east Ulster by the evening hours. Temperatures steady in the range 8-11 C. About 5-15 mm further rainfall on average.

WEDNESDAY ... Scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, some intervals of fog or mist, temperatures steady 7-11 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain and stronger winds likely with gusts to 70 km/hr from the southeast veering to southwest late in the day, temperatures steady 8-11 C or slowly falling in west especially to around 5-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, colder with morning lows 2-5 C and isolated frost possible, highs 7-9 C. Some mixed wintry showers could develop on high ground in the northwest.

SATURDAY 31st OCTOBER and SUNDAY 1st NOVEMBER ... Slightly milder again with southwesterly winds, some outbreaks of rain likely, highs 9-10 C on Saturday, midnight temperatures around 4 C, then highs 10-12 C Sunday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... As far as the charts go into November, the flow is best described as cool westerly with temperatures likely to be quite close to normal values but sometimes feeling quite cold and raw in strong westerly winds and with occasional colder days that could drop a bit of sleet on higher ground.

Hurricane Patricia moved into southwestern Mexico after setting some records for low pressures and strong winds over the Pacific. Small isolated stretches of the coastline may have seen severe damage but communications are difficult until daybreak at least. However, the bigger threat may turn out to be heavy rains over the inland hilly terrain, leading to possible mudslides. On the positive side, Puerto Vallarta appears to have escaped significant damage as expected. The remnant low of Patricia will cross Mexico and south Texas, merge with the westerlies near the Great Lakes mid-week, and then that energy will contribute to low pressure moving north of Ireland around the middle of the following week. Meanwhile, my local weather was partly sunny with a high near 14 C on Friday.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 25 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunshine and mild temperatures for parts of the south and east, highs near 15 C. More cloud and occasional light rain in parts of west and north, highs 13-14 C. Winds becoming moderate southerly 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Rain gradually becoming heavier in parts of west Munster, Connacht where 5-15 mm will fall, overcast but just a few light showers further east. Moderate southeast winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows 8-10 C.

MONDAY ... Rain will be moderate or even heavy at times in the west, with a further 10-20 mm. Eastern counties will have a few intervals of light rain or drizzle, becoming somewhat heavier by afternoon or early evening. Rather strong southeast winds for most, 50-80 km/hr. Highs 12-14 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, outbreaks of light or moderate rain once again moving across the country, 5-10 mm likely. Not as windy (SE 30-50 km/hr), as the low responsible becomes weaker off the southwest coasts. Lows near 7 and highs near 13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with a few breaks, occasional light rain (2-5 mm) and moderate south winds developing at least for western counties. Lows near 5 and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY ... Overcast, periods of rain, slow clearing trend in west by late in the day, rather light winds from south veering more westerly, and dense fog likely over some higher ground then covering much of the country by evening. Lows near 3 C and highs near 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks, showers that could produce hail in a few locations, lows near 2 C and highs near 10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Generally unsettled and a little milder, although rainfall amounts indicated to be fairly slight (3-5 mm each day). Lows 4-6 C and highs 10-12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, breezy or occasionally windy with temperatures near normal for early November. Expect about 25-40 mm of rain in the first ten days of the month, a little above normal possibly.

The weather scenario for BRITAIN will follow pretty well this same plan although Scotland may not see much rain from the approaching Atlantic low until later Tuesday.

Hurricane Patricia moved rapidly through Mexico, rapidly losing its circulation and eventually being absorbed by a low in south Texas leading to heavy rainfalls in the Houston region. This frontal system will spread rain and gusty winds into the central states today and into the Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday. Ahead of this, temperatures will be slightly above normal, as they are over much of the far west. My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with a high near 14 C.