Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 26-10-2015 07:05AM

Monday, 26 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rather windy with outbreaks of rain, spreading gradually further to northeast during the day. About 5-15 mm on average, winds SE 40-70 km/hr and highs 12-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy to overcast, a few intervals of light rain, winds easing to SE 30-50 km/hr. Lows 7-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with intervals of rain becoming heavy at times in eastern counties by afternoon and evening. Amounts 5-10 mm west, 10-20 mm east. Winds southeast 35-55 km/hr, highs 9-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, misty or foggy at times, rain developing in west by afternoon as strong southerly winds resume. Lows 5-7 C and highs about 12 C. About 10 mm of rain likely.

THURSDAY ... Early morning rain and strong winds, partial clearing followed by variable skies, a few showers, and easing winds. Foggy by evening in parts of central and northern inland counties. Lows 8-10 C and highs 10-12 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers with hail possible. Lows 3-5 C and highs 9-11 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Some dry intervals are now indicated for the weekend, but note this outlook could continue to change, confidence is rather low on timing past Thursday. Highs should be fairly mild at 10-13 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Recent guidance seems a bit milder in general but with several periods of heavy rainfall indicated in the first week to ten days of November, highs may continue to run 10-13 C and frosts would appear to be unlikely in general.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy and quite warm with a high near 20 C. Remnants of Patricia created a storm of about 70-100 km/hr over the northwest Gulf of Mexico but it wasn't considered a new tropical storm, just a strong regular-style low, which is spreading 100-150 mm rainfalls into the south central states. This will be moving towards the Great Lakes region by mid-week and remnants of this storm will circle around near Greenland next weekend and provide a strong frontal system for Ireland around 4th of November on current indications. With that many changes, it would not be accurate to say that it was Patricia but a distant relative perhaps.

M.T. Cranium · 27-10-2015 07:09AM

Tuesday, 27 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: The moon will be full tonight -- and almost at its closest approach to earth (perigee) -- the exact time of the full moon is 12:05 today. There won't be an eclipse anywhere on earth this time.

TODAY ... Cloudy with intervals of rain becoming heavy at times in eastern counties by afternoon and evening. Further amounts 2-5 mm west, 10-20 mm east. Some clearing will develop in Munster and south Connacht. Winds southeast 35-55 km/hr, highs 9-12 C although possibly 13-14 C in sunnier locations of Kerry, Cork and Clare.

TONIGHT ... Rain ending in east Ulster and while clearing elsewhere this could lead to fog, possibly rather dense in places. Lows 5-7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, misty or foggy at times, brief sunny or at least brighter intervals, with light rain developing in west by afternoon as strong southerly winds resume by evening, highs about 12 C. About 10 mm of rain likely overnight into Thursday morning.

THURSDAY ... Early morning rain and southerly winds 40-70 km/hr, then partial clearing followed by variable skies, a few showers, and easing winds. Foggy by evening in parts of central and northern inland counties. Lows 8-10 C and highs 10-12 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers with hail possible. A spell of heavier rain may develop late in the day with moderate southerly winds developing then easing overnight. Lows 3-5 C and highs 9-12 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Some dry intervals are now indicated for the weekend, with brief showers or patchy drizzle bringing only slight amounts of rain. The winds should be moderate and highs will be 10-14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Recent guidance seems mild in general but with several periods of rainfall indicated in the first week to ten days of November, starting with a frontal system around Tuesday 3rd ... highs may continue to run 10-13 C and could even go as high as 15 C at times; frosts would appear to be unlikely in general or slight if any nights remain clear.

Although the scenario is similar for BRITAIN, some days this week as well as next weekend and Monday will be milder in southern England with highs of 15-18 C possible. Dense fog may develop at night.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy to overcast, with occasional drizzle and highs near 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 28-10-2015 07:05AM

Wednesday, 28 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some sunny intervals are likely to develop from south Leinster northwest to Connacht. Further north, it will remain cloudy with occasional light showers (3-5 mm rain). And in west Munster it will be partly cloudy with occasional showers also giving 3-5 mm. All regions will see highs in the range of 13-15 C, and winds will be fairly light except near some coasts where southeast 30-50 km/hr breezes may develop.

TONIGHT ... Rain spreading onto the west coast will gradually move further east as winds increase to southerly 40-70 km/hr. Some fog will develop on higher ground, and 5-15 mm rain will fall, with mild overnight lows of 7-9 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain will taper to showers in the morning across Ulster and Leinster while clearing completely from most of Munster and Connacht. Eventually all areas will have a mixture of cloud and sunshine with misty or foggy conditions likely to develop late in the day, after highs 13-15 C. Winds may be rather brisk at times in the morning veering to southwest 40-60 km/hr then winds will decrease considerably.

FRIDAY ... Foggy or misty from early morning to mid-day in some places, although if the fog lifts it could become sunny for a time before cloud and rain spread in from the south, persisting overnight (5-10 mm likely). Morning lows will be 4-7 C and afternoon highs 12-14 C.

SATURDAY ... Gradual clearing with some pleasant sunny intervals, morning lows near 7 C and afternoon highs near 12 C. (Midnight conditions likely to be mild and dry, possibly a bit foggy in places, and near 5 C).

SUNDAY ... Hazy sunshine or high cloud, mild, lows 3-7 C and highs 13-16 C.

MONDAY ... Very mild with rain developing late in the day and lasting into Tuesday, highs near 16 C inland.

OUTLOOK ... Most of the first half of November looks very mild with highs continuing to reach the mid-teens on some days, while even the cooler days will be near 10 C. Some rain is likely at times and there could eventually be some strong westerly winds.

Conditions from today through this forecast period will be similar and perhaps even milder in parts of BRITAIN.

Rain from the remnants of Patricia are spreading into the Great Lakes region today, with rather strong winds gusting to 80 km/hr developing. This storm is forcing warmer air north into the eastern U.S. and highs may reach 24 C in some places. Further west, it continues to be rather mild too, our weather here on Tuesday was partly cloudy to sunny and the high was 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 29-10-2015 07:40AM

Thursday, 29 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... The last of the rain will move out of east Ulster soon, and eastern counties will have some clearing skies followed by increasing cloud that may end up mainly overcast by afternoon. Brisk southwest winds will ease and back into the south. Further west, the clear slot has already come and gone, so that cloud will increase steadily and a few light showers could follow in Atlantic coastal counties, amounts slight. It will continue rather mild with highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, misty or foggy (the fog more likely inland east and south where some dense pockets may form), occasional light rain in parts of the west and near the south coast. Lows 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Foggy or misty from early morning to mid-day in some places, although if the fog lifts it could become sunny for a time before cloud and rain spread in from the south, persisting overnight (5-10 mm likely). Morning temperatures in fog will be 6-8 C with afternoon or possibly evening highs reaching 13-15 C. About 10 mm of rain likely with winds reaching 50-70 km/hr in some locations exposed to the south.

SATURDAY ... Slight risk of isolated showers in the morning in parts of the southeast, otherwise gradual clearing with some pleasant sunny intervals, morning lows near 7 C and afternoon highs near 12 C. (Midnight conditions for Hallowe'en night likely to be mild and dry, calm and possibly a bit foggy in places, and near 5 C).

SUNDAY ... Possible dense fog in the morning, isolated grass frost in central counties, then hazy sunshine or high cloud, very mild by mid-day, light southeast breezes, lows 2-7 C and highs 13-16 C.

MONDAY ... Dense fog in the morning, then very mild with slowly increasing cloudiness, rain possible on Atlantic coasts by evening, lows 2-6 C and highs 14 to 16 C.

TUESDAY ... Occasional rain (5-10 mm), mild. Lows 7-10 C, highs 11-14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Most of the first half of November looks very mild with highs continuing to reach the mid-teens on some days, while even the cooler days will be near 10 C. Some rain is likely at times and there could eventually be some strong westerly winds.

The forecast for BRITAIN will be similar and rain reaching Ireland will tend to move mostly over the northern half of Britain leaving the southeast generally dry but more prone to dense fog, but if that doesn't persist all day then milder days will reach 18 or 19 C in places.

A strong low has formed over the Great Lakes, moving northeast towards southern Greenland. This has absorbed the remnants of Patricia, which became the area of heavy rainfall over the inland northeast U.S. ... Rather chilly (7-9 C) westerly gales will develop in the western Great Lakes and Midwest regions, but it will continue quite warm on the east coast with showers following partial clearing and highs near 23 C there. The west remains mild with rain becoming more widespread as fronts move inland. My local weather on Wednesday was foggy and wet with about 15 mm of rain and highs near 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 30-10-2015 08:46AM

Friday, 30 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, outbreaks of rain (5-15 mm) with possible thunder near the Atlantic coasts, more isolated showers possible further east, very mild with highs 14-17 C. Moderate southerly winds 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Rain at times across eastern counties as slow clearing develops across the west, fog by morning in some areas mostly central counties, mild with lows 6-9 C. Rainfalls about 5-10 mm in some eastern counties.

SATURDAY ... Some further outbreaks of light rain during the morning but Munster likely to remain dry, then gradual clearing with some very mild sunny spells by afternoon. Highs 14-16 C.

SATURDAY NIGHT ... Generally clear and mild at first, fog gradually developing mainly inland west and central counties, midnight temperatures about 4-6 C and lowest readings around sunrise 1-4 C with patchy ground frost inland west, central, risk of dense fog by Sunday morning.

SUNDAY ... Fog or low cloud slowly dispersing, very mild with sunny intervals by mid-day and afternoon, highs 14-17 C.

MONDAY ... Foggy to start, hazy sunshine and very mild later, with lows about 4 to 7 C and highs 14-17 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will see outbreaks of light rain in a very mild southerly flow, nights may remain close to 10 C and daytime temperatures into the mid-teens.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continued very mild at least through the weekend of the 7th and 8th of November with highs generally in the 12-14 C range, occasionally strong southerly winds and further outbreaks of rain. Even though some slightly cooler conditions are shown by mid-month, these would still be above the mid-November normals, or around 10 C, but with slight frosts returning to the picture.

Over in BRITAIN this same general scenario is likely and if anything it could be a degree or two warmer in parts of southern England. Some of the rainfall events predicted for Ireland will only affect western and northern portions of Britain, and dense fog will likely be somewhat more widespread in the Midlands and parts of eastern England.

After some very warm temperatures near 25 C yesterday, the east coast of the U.S. will be returning to seasonal normals (13-17 C) in breezy, partly cloudy conditions. Further west, temperatures remain close to normal until west of the Rockies, then somewhat warmer in general. My local weather on Thursday was overcast with spotty light rain and highs near 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 31-10-2015 07:10AM

Saturday, 31 October, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Very mild (Dublin at 16 C at 0500h!) already, with some further outbreaks of light rain during the morning in north Leinster and east Ulster, otherwise expect cloud with some sunny breaks, more frequent by mid-day and afternoon, with highs 15-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Generally clear and very mild at first, mist and then fog gradually developing more rapidly inland west and central counties, midnight temperatures about 4-6 C west, 7-10 C east, then lowest readings around sunrise 1-4 C west, 5-8 C east, with patchy ground frost inland west, central, risk of dense fog by morning in west central counties.

SUNDAY ... Fog or low cloud slowly dispersing in some parts although faster around eastern counties, once again very mild with sunny intervals by mid-day and afternoon, highs 14-17 C.

MONDAY ... Foggy to start, hazy sunshine and very mild later, with lows about 4 to 7 C and highs 14-17 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will see outbreaks of light rain in a very mild southerly flow, nights may remain close to 10 C and daytime temperatures into the mid-teens.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continued very mild at least through the weekend of the 7th and 8th of November with highs generally in the 12-14 C range, occasionally moderate to strong southerly winds and further outbreaks of rain. Even though some slightly cooler conditions are shown by mid-month, these would still be above the mid-November normals, or around 10 C, but with colder nights (2-6 C) with slight frosts returning to the picture. There appears to be a very good chance of November challenging for the warmest on record in many parts of Ireland and Britain, also France where highs will often be in the low 20s. At the same time it will likely turn quite a bit colder in southeast Europe although quite mild in the Baltic regions and as far south as Austria.

The "cold pool" in the central Atlantic has recently been replaced by more normal temperatures there and this seems to be related to the formation of sluggish high pressure over north-central Europe, almost as if the atmosphere is waiting for new directions. Keep in the back of your mind that warm blocking patterns can sometimes be followed by cold blocking, if this situation continues very long into the low-sun months ahead, inversions will begin to develop and persist all day, it's already a bit of an effort for the sun to break down these shallow inversions but back in the bad old days of coal burning this could have turned into a dangerous weather situation (as happened in the London smog episode of early December 1952).

Over in BRITAIN it will be a very mild weekend too, with highs 18-20 C and some dense fog at night. This will persist well into November although eventually there may be one or two days where the fog and low cloud remains stuck for the whole day instead of lifting and redeveloping.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with some morning rainfall but slight clearing by afternoon, mild with highs near 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 01-11-2015 07:36AM

Sunday, 1 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Fog or low cloud slowly dispersing in some parts although faster around Dublin and eastern coasts, once again becoming very mild with sunny intervals by mid-day and afternoon, highs 14-17 C (a few places may stay in fog longer with highs 10-13 C).

TONIGHT ... Widespread dense fog is possible under mostly clear skies that may be encountered at higher elevations above the fog, visibilities less than 100 metres in some areas, drive with caution ... lows 4 to 8 C.

MONDAY ... Foggy to start, hazy sunshine and very mild later, highs 14-17 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will see outbreaks of light rain in a very mild southerly flow, nights may remain 8 to 10 C and daytime temperatures into the 13-15 C range. Only small amounts of rain appear likely at this point, 3 to 5 mm on average.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY will continue very mild but winds will gradually increase to reach 50-70 km/hr by the weekend. Intermittent rain will come and go with frontal systems, about 10-20 mm in total can be expected. Temperatures will continue to be very mild, lows 8-11 C and highs 13-16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... no real change from the exceptionally mild and sometimes foggy weather is foreseen with the occasional strong frontal system bringing stronger winds and brief intervals of heavier rainfall.

Over in BRITAIN, fog is very widespread this morning and it may not clear everywhere, so check ahead if you have a flight, but where it does clear and any sunshine develops today or tomorrow, it could easily reach 19 or 20 C.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with a few heavy showers at times, and the high was about 15 C. We are now going onto standard time so if I do anything really bad between 0100h and 0200h tonight, I can have a second chance.

M.T. Cranium · 02-11-2015 08:20AM

Monday, 2 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... The best of any sunshine is likely to be across inland portions of the south and most of the central region (from west to east) including coastal counties. Once any fog or mist dissipate there, highs will reach 15-18 C. The south coast may see more persistent fog or low cloud and highs 12-15 C. The north will be cloudy with a few sunny intervals and highs 13-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Extensive fog or mist, some areas with poor visibility below 100 metres, lows 7-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Fog may be more persistent, but some hazy sunny spells will eventually develop. In general, it will continue very mild, but highs will be a few degrees lower than recent days, in the 12-16 C range. Slight risk of showers by late in the day in south and west.

WEDNESDAY ... Occasional light rain, continued rather foggy and very mild. Lows 7-10 C and highs 12-15 C.

THURSDAY ... Periods of rain (10-15 mm potential), foggy in some parts, and continued very mild. Lows 8-11 C and highs 12-15 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will continue very mild with occasional rain but some dry intervals when the sun might be able to burn through all the cloud in some places. Lows 9-12 C and highs 12-16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The first half of the following week will probably remain very mild with increasing chances of strong winds at times, and spells of rain, with highs 12-15 C. Some guidance is showing a colder spell developing late in the week but even this will probably be no colder than average for mid-November, with occasional showers and highs 8-11 C.

My local weather on Sunday was rather foul, with rain most of the day and a high of about 12 C. Meanwhile, the eastern half of the U.S. and southern Ontario will enjoy about a week of very warm weather with highs 17-23 C.

M.T. Cranium · 03-11-2015 08:08AM

Tuesday, 3 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Fog may be more persistent, but some hazy sunny spells will eventually develop at least across the inland south and some central counties. In general, it will continue very mild, but highs may be a few degrees lower than recent days, in the 12-16 C range. Slight risk of showers by late in the day in south and west.

TONIGHT and WEDNESDAY ... Occasional light rain in parts of south and west making slow progress into north and east, continued rather foggy and very mild. Lows 7-10 C and highs 12-15 C.

THURSDAY ... Periods of rain (10-15 mm potential), foggy in some parts, and continued very mild. Lows 8-11 C and highs 12-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, possibly windy at times in Connacht and west Ulster with gusts to 80 km/hr, continued very mild with occasional rain but some dry intervals, lows 7-9 C and highs 13-16 C.

SATURDAY ... Rain ending, a few sunny breaks, continued mild with lows 6-8 C and highs 12-15 C.

SUNDAY ... Somewhat cooler at least in northern and central counties, mostly cloudy, chance of rain redeveloping by afternoon and evening in southwest where milder air may remain in place. Lows 4-6 C and highs 10-12 C for most but could remain 13-15 C in west Munster.

OUTLOOK ... Very mild and breezy to windy from Monday to mid-week (9th to 11th), highs 13-16 C and some rain at times. Somewhat colder in stages later in the week or by the weekend of 14th-15th, however at this point we are not seeing conclusive evidence of anything much cooler than average values around 7 or 8 C. If you heard about colder weather and snow, those signs appear to have weakened somewhat in the latest guidance, and we expect this trend of uncertain glimpses of wintry weather might come and go a few times as the mid-Atlantic cold pool has re-emerged which makes model behaviour somewhat erratic, colder air seeping south from Greenland sometimes makes more of an impact than at other times with very little change in the lead-up patterns in more reliable time. Still, we can't rule out a colder turn at some point about two weeks from now.

My local weather was partly cloudy with some sunny intervals on Monday, and highs near 12 C. Most of the eastern U.S. was closer to 20 C or a bit higher.

M.T. Cranium · 04-11-2015 08:18AM

Wednesday, 4 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with some fog and mist, and some light rain dying out later this morning near the east coast. Mild with highs 12-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, rain developing from west to east, becoming rather windy towards morning (SE 40-60 km/hr), lows 7-10 C.

THURSDAY ... Breezy and mild with rain ending during the morning to mid-day hours (10-15 mm likely), winds veering to south then southwest 50-80 km/hr but easing later, highs 12-15 C. Some brief clearing by evening.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud from early morning, becoming windy again and very mild, slight amounts of rain until heavier pulses arrive late in the day, morning lows 5-8 C then highs 13-16 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy, early morning rain but gradual clearing later in the day, winds SW 50-80 km/hr, lows 9-12 C and highs 12-15 C.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, mild, periods of rain developing, lows 7-9 C and highs 13-16 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will continue very mild with occasional rain and moderate southwest winds, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will become rather windy with falling temperatures starting out near 14 C but dropping to about 5-8 C late in the day, some rain or drizzle but partial clearing during the day.

OUTLOOK ... Slightly colder towards the end of next week, highs 8-10 C and lows 2-5 C, with the chance of showers although some breaks in the cloud. This colder spell will probably not last too long before more mild and damp weather returns in a southwesterly flow.

Over in BRITAIN it's a similar picture although more mist and fog around with today likely to stay rather damp most of the day.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with a few breaks, and highs around 11 C.

M.T. Cranium · 05-11-2015 08:26AM

Thursday, 5 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy and mild with rain covering all regions soon, then ending during the late morning to mid-day hours in the southwest, afternoon elsewhere (10-15 mm likely), winds veering to south then southwest 50-80 km/hr but easing later, highs 12-15 C. Some sunny intervals will develop in west Munster and parts of Galway this afternoon but clearing will probably only begin elsewhere towards sunset.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals this evening, lowest temperatures may occur before or around midnight with lows 5-8 C, then increasing cloud and a renewed strong southwest wind with rising temperatures and periods of rain at times near Atlantic coasts.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud from early morning, becoming windy again (SW 50-70 km/hr) and very mild, only slight amounts of rain mainly in western counties, until heavier pulses arrive late in the day, with highs 13-16 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy, early morning rain but gradual clearing later in the day, winds SW 50-80 km/hr, lows 9-12 C and highs 12-15 C in south but remaining steady 9-12 C in north where drizzle may persist.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, mild, periods of rain developing, 10-20 mm amounts, lows 7-9 C and highs 13-16 C south, 11-13 C north.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will continue very mild with occasional rain and moderate southwest winds 50-70 km/hr, lows 7 to 10 C and highs near 15 C south, 12 C north. Warmest temperatures may occur overnight Tuesday into Wednesday across the south when it could touch 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will become rather windy (WSW 50-80 km/hr) with falling temperatures starting out near 13 C but dropping to about 5-8 C late in the day, some rain or drizzle but partial clearing during the day.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, and highs 8-10 C. Frost still appears rather unlikely despite this cooler turn, lows 3-5 C.

WEEKEND of 14th-15th from this distance appears likely to become milder again with highs into the 11-14 C range, some rain at times perhaps, but a more active stormy interval may follow early in the week of 16th to 20th. The large-scale set-up is not going to change rapidly, it would appear, and there is no strong reason to expect the southwest flow of mild Atlantic air masses to change for quite some time yet (our long-range indications were that it could in fact dominate December as well -- eventually things could come together to produce a more intense storm in this pattern, but we don't see any definite signs of winds stronger than moderate 50-80 km/hr type that won't cause disruption.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast and rather cool with spots of light rain and highs near 10 C. The eastern regions of North America have been enjoying warm, in some cases record warm, weather, it was for example well into the 20s in southern Ontario, Michigan and Ohio yesterday. This will begin to change to more average conditions over the next two days, but for colder weather one would need to go further west where a bit of arctic air will spill out and go upslope on the Rockies to bring locally heavy snow in parts of Montana and Wyoming.

M.T. Cranium · 06-11-2015 08:51AM

Friday, 6 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Intermittent light rain across parts of the north, partly to mostly cloudy further south with more isolated brief showers, and becoming windy again (SW 50-70 km/hr) and very mild, with highs 13-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast and very mild, periods of rain developing, 5-10 mm on average, lows 9-12 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy, early morning rain but gradual clearing later in the day, winds SW 50-80 km/hr, highs 12-15 C in south but remaining steady 10-12 C in north where drizzle may persist.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, mild and windy (SSW 50-80 km/hr), periods of rain developing, 10-20 mm amounts, lows 7-9 C and highs 13-16 C south, 11-13 C north. Strong winds around late afternoon and evening hours veering to west with possible severe gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed coastal west Munster, Connacht, west Ulster.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will continue very mild with occasional rain and moderate southwest winds 60-90 km/hr, lows 7 to 10 C and highs near 15 C south, 12 C north. Warmest temperatures may occur overnight Monday into Tuesday across the south when it could touch 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will remain rather windy (WSW 50-80 km/hr) with falling temperatures starting out near 10 C but dropping to about 4-7 C late in the day, some rain or drizzle but partial clearing during the day.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, and highs 8-11 C. Frost still appears rather unlikely despite this cooler turn, lows 3-5 C.

OUTLOOK ... Guidance is somewhat mixed on timing but most models seem to favour near normal temperatures with the occasional milder sector in a fast westerly flow from the weekend of 14th-15th into the following week; expect temperatures mostly in the 8-10 C range daytime and 3-6 C overnight, with brief milder intervals near 12-14 C.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast and a bit foggy to start the day, with a slow clearing trend that allowed for some misty sunshine and highs of about 11 C. We have some nice splashes of autumn colour at this point and patchy snow cover visible on the north shore mountains when they can be seen through the overcast. As this is often the wettest month of the year, we have been getting away rather easily so far, the main storm track continues to run further north.

M.T. Cranium · 07-11-2015 08:33AM

Saturday, 7 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Heavy rain in the Dublin region may continue for several hours, watch for flooded sections of roadways. Elsewhere, light to moderate rain will gradually come to an end with partial clearing in the west by afternoon, when it will become breezy to windy, with SW winds 50-80 km/hr, highs 12-15 C in south but remaining steady 10-12 C in north where drizzle may persist most of the afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Foggy or misty, very mild, occasional drizzle, lows 7-10 C for most but 10-12 C south coast.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, mild and windy (SSW 50-80 km/hr), periods of rain developing, 10-20 mm amounts, and highs 13-16 C south, 11-13 C north. Strong winds around late afternoon and evening hours veering to west with possible severe gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed coastal west Munster, Connacht, west Ulster.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will continue very mild with occasional rain and moderate southwest winds 60-90 km/hr for most but stronger near Donegal Bay and Galway Bay at times, lows 7 to 10 C and highs near 15 C south, 12 C north. Warmest temperatures may occur overnight Monday into Tuesday across the south when it could touch 16 C. It will then turn slightly cooler across the west and north on Tuesday afternoon and in the east during the evening hours.

WEDNESDAY will remain rather windy (WSW 50-80 km/hr) with falling temperatures starting out near 10 C but dropping to about 4-7 C late in the day, some rain or drizzle but partial clearing during the day.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, and highs 8-11 C. Frost still appears rather unlikely despite this cooler turn, lows 3-5 C.

OUTLOOK for WEEKEND 14th-15th calls for milder weather to return for at least part of the weekend, timing may change but when the milder air arrives it will return temperatures to the 13-15 C range with rain and strong winds. Beyond that, a somewhat colder westerly flow will develop with highs 8-10 C most days, but there could be brief milder intervals associated with stronger winds as lows develop and move rapidly past northern coastal regions.

My local weather on Friday was overcast and wet with highs near 11 C, about 20 mm of rain fell during the day and about the same amount is expected today.

M.T. Cranium · 08-11-2015 08:06AM

Sunday, 8 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Very mild and windy with rain becoming heavy at times this morning, 10-15 mm likely, winds SSW veering WSW 50-80 km/hr. Some clearing will develop this afternoon in blustery west-southwest winds that may peak near 100 km/hr in exposed locations. Highs 13-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy south, overcast north with rain redeveloping, temperatures steady 8-10 C then rising after midnight to 10-12 C.

MONDAY ... Mostly cloudy, very mild, occasional rain in north, just a few brief showers further south, winds SW 50-70 km/hr and highs 14-17 C.

TUESDAY ... Continued very mild with temperatures staying up around 13-16 during the overnight hours then steady in that range or slowly falling in some parts of west and north to about 9-10 C. Some light rain or drizzle, westerly winds 50-70 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, not quite as mild, occasional rain, and moderate westerly winds, morning lows 4-7 C and afternoon highs 9-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Periods of rain, windy, mild, lows 5-8 C and highs 10-13 C.

FRIDAY ... Briefly colder with variable cloud and passing showers in gusty westerly winds 50-80 km/hr. Lows 3-5 C and highs 7-10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... More pulses of very mild air from the southwest will arrive at roughly 2-3 day intervals, and latest guidance shows this continuing as far as the models run which starts to approach the end of the month. If so, this will rival years such as 1994 and 1938 for the mildest November on record. If you're wondering if this could continue through the winter, that seems very unlikely -- I'm expecting this signal to weaken slowly in December which means a few more mild spells but not this intensity, then possibly some much different patterns including some that are colder than average further into the winter.

The situation is more or less the same for BRITAIN also, with the heavier rain likely to fall in north-central portions of Wales and England and temperatures sometimes reaching 16 or 17 C in the south.

My local weather on Saturday was basically a downpour most of the day with at least 40 mm of rain, probably a lot more in higher parts of the region, and temperatures steady around 10 C. It seems to have let up now.

M.T. Cranium · 09-11-2015 08:17AM

Monday, 9 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, very mild, rain generally becoming more confined to the north by later this morning, with just a few brief showers further south, and brief breaks in the overcast, quite windy at times (SW 50-80 km/hr) and highs 14-17 C in the south, 12-14 C north. About 10 mm of rain can be expected in the northern two-thirds of the country but lesser amounts (2-5 mm) likely across the south.

TONIGHT and TUESDAY ... Continued very mild with temperatures staying up around 13-17 during the overnight hours (particularly mild in coastal southeast due to downsloping effects from Wicklow Mountains) then steady during the day in that range or slowly falling in some parts of west and north to about 9-10 C. Some light rain or drizzle but fairly frequent dry intervals too, with westerly winds easing somewhat to 50-70 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, not quite as mild, occasional rain that may become heavy in central counties giving 10-15 mm amounts, and moderate southwesterly winds, morning lows 4-7 C and afternoon highs 9-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Periods of rain, windy, mild, lows 4-7 C for most but 7-10 C across the south, then highs 10-13 C. About 5-10 mm rain.

FRIDAY ... Briefly colder with variable cloud and passing showers, some with hail (sleet or snow could fall on higher peaks in north but this would probably melt within a few hours) in gusty westerly winds 50-80 km/hr. Lows 3-5 C and highs 7-10 C.

WEEKEND to WEDNESDAY 18th is looking very mild again with a resumed southwest flow, occasional rain and moderate south to southwest winds, highs could be up around 14 or 15 C at times. Strong winds possible mid-week with some indications of a deep low forming to southwest and moving rapidly across the country, details subject to change as we move forward.

Other than the brief incursion of colder air Friday, there are few signs of any days with below average temperatures so the record high monthly temperature watch is certainly on for the time being.

See yesterday's forecast for thoughts on forecasts for BRITAIN (basically the same story).

My local weather improved to mostly cloudy but dry on Sunday and it was just a little milder at 12 C. Conditions coast to coast in North America are generally near average at this point, which includes some snow in parts of the Canadian prairies and U.S. northern plains states. No severe arctic chill showing up on the charts anywhere south of the high arctic region, that is confined mostly to northeast Siberia at this point.

M.T. Cranium · 10-11-2015 08:46AM

Tuesday, 10 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Continued very mild, temperatures steady during the day in the 14 to 16 C range except slowly falling in some parts of west and north to about 9-10 C. Some light rain or drizzle at times, 2-4 mm on average, but fairly frequent dry intervals too, with south-westerly winds 50-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT and WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, not quite as mild, occasional rain that may become heavy in central counties giving 10-15 mm amounts, and moderate southwesterly winds, lows 4-7 C and afternoon highs 9-12 C.

THURSDAY ... After some clear intervals during the early morning hours, with lows 4-7 C, back to rain, windy, and mild conditions with highs 10-13 C. About 5-10 mm rain.

FRIDAY ... Briefly colder with variable cloud and passing showers, some with hail (sleet or snow could fall on higher peaks in north but this would probably melt within a few hours) in gusty westerly winds 50-80 km/hr. Lows 3-5 C and highs 7-10 C. Longer sunny intervals are possible near east and south coasts.

WEEKEND to WEDNESDAY 18th is looking very mild again with a resumed southwest flow, occasional rain and moderate south to southwest winds, highs could be up around 14 to 16 C at times. Strong winds possible mid-week with some indications of a deep low forming to southwest and moving rapidly across the country on Wednesday (18th).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pattern will not change totally but instead of almost non-stop mild weather, it will become more of a highly variable pattern with bursts of colder conditions lasting a day or two in between pulses of very mild and windy, rainy weather. Temperatures will be ranging from colder days near 5 C and milder days still reaching low to mid teens.

Tropical storm Kate has formed near the northeast Bahamas and is rapidly moving north to be absorbed by a low coming out of the northern U.S. around Thursday. That energy will be moving well north of Ireland around Sunday or Monday. Meanwhile, my local weather was fairly pleasant on Monday with sunny intervals and a high of 12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 11-11-2015 08:33AM

Wednesday, 11 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, not quite as mild although still in the 11-13 C range, outbreaks of light rain (5-10 mm) may become heavier by late morning in Leinster, winds moderate southwesterly at times.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud with some clear intervals, isolated showers, somewhat colder with lows 4-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud followed by showers and gusty winds increasing to SW 50-80 km/hr for most and 80-110 km/hr for exposed portions of Connacht and west Ulster (but the strongest winds of storm "Abigail" will probably stay offshore and hit Scotland Thursday night).
About 5-10 mm of rain for most locations during the mid-day and afternoon hours.

FRIDAY ... Strong winds easing by morning and settling in at westerly 40-70 km/hr, a bit colder with passing showers, some with hail and thunder, morning lows near 5 C and afternoon highs 8-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Becoming breezy to windy and milder with outbreaks of heavy rain (20-30 mm) possible, morning lows near 7 C and afternoon highs about 12-14 C, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... More heavy rain likely (15-30 mm), strong westerly winds 50-80 km/hr, turning slightly cooler with temperatures steady 10-13 C at first, then sliding down to about 8 degrees later in the day. Some flooding possible due to the ongoing accumulation of rain.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be windy and temperatures will average 7-9 C with low teens near the south coast, occasional rain or squally showers, and gusty winds from the west at times, 50-80 km/hr.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for somewhat more seasonable November weather later next week with temperatures 6-8 C daytime, 1-3 C nights, and the slight risk of mixed wintry showers developing on higher ground in the north, although I don't think many will see sleet or snow at lower elevations. That sort of pattern, interspersed with one or two windy days and milder temperatures, appears likely to see out the month in a "fast westerly" type of flow pattern.

Over in BRITAIN, the first part of this forecast will be very similar but when it does start to turn a bit colder, some days may see stronger winds and colder conditions especially in Scotland and northern England.

Tropical storm Kate may briefly become a cat-1 hurricane later today but whatever happens, it will be absorbed by low pressure near Newfoundland on Friday then that low will provide the strong winds expected in Ireland on the weekend. My local weather on Tuesday was mostly overcast with a few showers and highs near 10 C.

Astronomy note: new moon today at 1747h, no eclipse anywhere on earth this time.

M.T. Cranium · 12-11-2015 07:18AM

Thursday, 12 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Increasing cloud followed by showers and gusty winds increasing to SW 50-80 km/hr for most and 80-110 km/hr for exposed portions of Connacht and west Ulster (but I expect that the strongest winds of storm "Abigail" in the 110-140 km/hr range will probably stay offshore and hit Scotland Thursday night, in particular, the Hebrides). About 5-10 mm of rain for most locations during the mid-day and afternoon hours. Some squally showers possible with hail and thunder. Highs 13-15 C then turning somewhat colder in the late afternoon west, evening to overnight east.

TONIGHT ... Windy (WSW 50-80 km/hr) and quite cold with a few passing showers becoming wintry on higher ground in the north before morning, lows 2-5 C north, 5-7 C south.

FRIDAY ... Feeling relatively cold in strong winds easing slowly during the afternoon and settling in at westerly 40-70 km/hr, a bit colder with passing showers, some with hail and thunder, morning lows near 5 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C north, 8-11 C south. Any snow or sleet on northern hills will be slight and will then be gone by Saturday.

SATURDAY ... Becoming breezy to windy and milder with outbreaks of heavy rain (20-30 mm) possible, morning lows 4 to 7 C and afternoon highs eventually about 12-14 C, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr with higher gusts possible. Ulster may remain in the 8-10 C range until late in the day.

SUNDAY ... More heavy rain likely (15-30 mm), strong westerly winds 50-80 km/hr, turning slightly cooler with temperatures steady 10-13 C at first, then sliding down to about 8 degrees later in the day. Some flooding possible due to the ongoing accumulation of rain.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be windy and temperatures will average 8-10 C with 11-14 C near the south coast, occasional rain or squally showers, and gusty winds from the west at times, 50-80 km/hr.

FURTHER OUTLOOK now looking rather wet as the storm track begins to set up more directly into Ireland from the west, temperatures will continue to vary from milder days near 12 C to colder days around 7 C, and it will be quite windy at times.

Kate was briefly a hurricane northwest of Bermuda and is back to tropical storm status now. Its remnant extratropical low will provide most of the energy for Sunday's weather in Ireland, but don't worry, it won't be a hurricane then, just another in the endless parade of Atlantic lows. My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and quite windy at times with a high about 12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 13-11-2015 08:29AM

Friday, 13 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Feeling relatively cold in strong winds this morning, occasional gusts to 100 km/hr in exposed locations around Galway Bay and south coast, but 80 km/hr in most other regions, then easing slowly during the afternoon and settling in at westerly 40-70 km/hr, much colder with passing showers, some with hail and thunder, afternoon highs 6-9 C north, 8-11 C south. Any lying hail, snow or sleet on higher northern areas will be slight and will likely melt during the later part of today or will certainly be gone by Saturday.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals and cold at first, lowest temperatures probably 2-4 C before midnight, then increasing cloud and turning milder after midnight except in Ulster.

SATURDAY ... Becoming breezy to windy and milder with outbreaks of heavy rain (20-30 mm) possible, afternoon highs eventually about 12-14 C, winds increasing to southwest 50-80 km/hr with higher gusts possible. Ulster may remain in the 8-10 C range until late in the day.

SUNDAY ... More rain likely (10-20 mm), strong westerly winds 50-80 km/hr, turning slightly cooler with temperatures steady 10-13 C at first, then sliding down to about 8 degrees later in the day. Some flooding possible (as early as Saturday in some places) due to the ongoing accumulation of rain.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, somewhat colder at first, followed by an interval of steady rain, strong winds returning to south coast, lows 4-7 C and highs about 8-10 C north, 11-13 C south.

TUESDAY ... Windy and mild, temperatures will average 8-10 C with 11-14 C near the south coast, occasional rain or squally showers, and gusty winds from the west at times, 50-80 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Some partly cloudy, dry intervals followed by rain late in the day, continued rather mild, highs 8-11 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy with periods of rain, mild but turning colder late in the day, highs 9-12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models have been wavering for several days on how much change we might expect towards weekend of 21st-22nd and into the following week. The latest guidance has swung back somewhat to the colder side although I recall seeing colder maps a few days ago for this time period, as well as milder ones more recently. A fairly strong low pressure system is featured in the general area of the south coast and timing centered on Sunday 22nd. This will probably evolve into something significant but for now, the suggestion is near normal temperatures (5-8 C) and strong northerly winds developing with rain heavier in south and east, followed by a more settled spell that might become frosty at night. The way this month has gone so far, one persistent theme has been for a milder signal to intrude on all time scales closer to events, so I'm keeping in reserve the idea that this strong storm could turn into something milder with heavier rain over all of the country instead; however, this situation sometimes changes to a more southerly track that avoids any kind of weather event, as is currently shown on one of the "lesser" models (GEM).

The strongest winds of storm "Abigail" have already come and gone from northern Scotland but it will remain very windy there today. Otherwise, the weather pattern for BRITAIN will be very similar to Ireland in this fast flow pattern.

My local weather on Thursday was very wet and rather windy, we've had an almost incessant downpour that dropped 40-60 mm in the region, and gusts near the coast to 100 km/hr although those seem to have avoided my location all day. It was about 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 14-11-2015 08:23AM

Saturday, 14 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

Summary: Milder again from today to about Thursday, with considerable amounts of rainfall eventually totalling 50 mm on average. Turning colder in stages at the end of the week, with some risk of wintry conditions by about Saturday 21st, including snow on hills at least and mixed sleety falls closer to sea level. As always, this longer term outlook is not "carved in stone" but all models are pretty much in agreement on this trend.

TODAY ... Rain spreading rapidly across all regions, then becoming more confined to northern and central counties with south in foggy and drizzly conditions. Highs 10-13 C north but only reached late in the day, 13-15 C south by afternoon. Winds moderate southwest 40-70 km/hr. About 20 mm of rain appears likely in Connacht and Ulster, parts of north Leinster, 10 mm in Munster and south Leinster. Some roadway flooding likely in parts of the north.

TONIGHT ... A few showers continuing overnight as steady rain pushes out of Ulster, mild and foggy, lows near 8 C to 10 or 11 C south coast.

SUNDAY ... Mild, foggy at times, and intervals of rain, highs 13-15 C. About 10 to 20 mm rain in some parts of southeast which will get the heavier falls on this occasion. Note that roads may have some flooding issues both days this weekend where rain is heaviest.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, a little cooler for most, outbreaks of rain developing through the mid-day and afternoon hours, morning lows 5-8 C, afternoon highs 8-10 C north, 11-13 C south. Rainfalls 5-15 mm.

TUESDAY ... Rain at times, mild. Lows 7-9 C and highs 11-14 C. Rainfalls about 10-20 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... Mild, showers. Lows 5-7 C and highs 9-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Showers, mild but turning a bit colder late in the day. Lows about 5 C and highs about 11 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will turn colder, if today's guidance is correct it will become cold enough for a mixture of snow and sleet at times in a raw north to northeast wind (more northwesterly in Atlantic coastal counties). Amounts may be slight with coatings of snow suggested on hills mainly. Lowest temperatures will be as low as -3 C inland and near freezing at the coast, with
daytime highs 3-6 C. As always, take this with the caveat that forecasts this far out can change, but this is what most reliable global models are showing.

SUNDAY and MONDAY would be just a bit milder as the wind flow becomes more west to northwest, still bringing in polar air but over a longer fetch of the nearby Atlantic, so temperatures might recover to about 7-8 C for highs. Gusty winds and passing showers, mixed on higher terrain, would be expected. The longer term outlook would be somewhat milder again, 8-11 C later in the final week of November.

So we will continue to track these developments and see if the models have got this change right, personally, I remain a bit doubtful it will become quite this cold, maybe more like 3-6 C with a cold rain and some high elevation sleet or snow. This is only based on my experience with these models being a bit quick to bring in cold air early in the winter season.

Meanwhile, across North America rather bland weather conditions in many regions with a somewhat milder pattern in the east than the west, but much colder weather is indicated late in the month. My local weather on Friday was overcast and mild with just slight amounts of rain, and highs near 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 15-11-2015 08:40AM

Sunday, 15 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

A few slight changes but essentially the same forecast scenario as we discussed yesterday ... since this is a rather lengthy forecast package, I will be posting an update on the winter forecast separately and probably not before this evening, but I can tell you that it won't be a lot different from the preliminary version posted about a month ago.

TODAY ... If it feels subtropical, thank "Kate" who went extra-tropical and brought this mild, moist air along for a ride. Today will be very mild, foggy at times, and intervals of rain, a further 10-20 mm, now expected to be somewhat heavier in Connacht and west Munster than further east but amounts in most places between 10 and 20 mm with further flooding possible, and highs 14-16 C already reached in many places (0700h highest reading was 15 C at several locations). There may be a dry interlude for parts of the coastal southeast as the fronts pivot further north, and in Atlantic coastal counties there will be a slight drop in temperatures during the afternoon as winds veer to westerly. Moderate southwest winds most of the day 50-80 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing with showers more isolated, colder especially in northern counties where lows of 4-7 C will develop by morning, staying milder (7-10 C in south). Moderate westerly winds 40-70 km/hr although stronger gusts near Donegal Bay to about 100 km/hr locally.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, a little cooler for most, outbreaks of rain developing through the mid-day and afternoon hours, morning lows 5-8 C, afternoon highs 8-10 C north, 11-13 C south. Rainfalls 5-15 mm.

TUESDAY ... Rain at times, mild. Lows 7-9 C and highs 11-14 C. Rainfalls about 10-20 mm. Strong southwest winds may develop near south coast depending on exact track of low pressure area (expected to be through central or northern counties).

WEDNESDAY ... Mild, showers. Lows 5-7 C and highs 9-13 C. Moderate southwest winds.

THURSDAY ... Showers, mild but turning a bit colder late in the day. Lows about 5 C and highs about 11 C. Winds veering southwest to west-northwest during the day, temperatures falling sharply overnight into Friday.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will turn colder, today's guidance has only changed very slightly, it will be cold enough for a mixture of snow and sleet at times in a raw north to northeast wind 50-80 km/hr at times (more north-northwesterly in Atlantic coastal counties) but amounts may be slight with coatings of snow suggested on some hills mainly, there will also be areas with no measurable falls of any type as the source for precipitation is likely to be a combination of weak troughs moving south and sea-effect streamers. Lowest temperatures will be as low as -2 C inland and near freezing to 2 C at the coast, with daytime highs 3-6 C. As always, take this with the caveat that forecasts this far out can (still) change, but this is what most reliable global models are continuing to show ... the bottom line is, some snow and slight frost seems possible in the pattern shown, but as of now it does not look like a major 2010 type of event. Higher parts of Ulster might see a few cms of snow according to the guidance, further south it could be hit or miss slight coatings or sleet. If you're wondering which way things could possibly change, I would say it looks about equally likely that things could "fizzle out" to even less wintry outcomes, or they could get a little more interesting if stronger troughs develop in the northerly flow.

SUNDAY and MONDAY would be just a bit milder as the wind flow becomes more west to northwest, still bringing in polar air but over a longer fetch of the nearby Atlantic, so temperatures might recover to about 7-8 C for highs. Gusty winds and passing showers, mixed on higher terrain, would be expected. High pressure is likely to crest over Ireland mid-week (around Wed 25th) and that could lead to sharper frosts before a warming trend from the west. The longer term outlook would be somewhat milder again, 8-11 C later in the final week of November. Although much of the week could be dry, some rain appears likely towards the final weekend of the month.

Over in BRITAIN, the main details above will apply, but today's strong winds and heavy rainfall will be more intense for western Scotland which once again will see the direct effects of the low at its maximum intensity. That will come about this afternoon and evening. The main difference in forecasts might come about a week from now when Britain will be under a stronger northerly outbreak with the potential for heavier localized snowfalls in places where streamers come in from that direction such as north Wales and Yorkshire, Tyneside and East Anglia.

My local weather on Saturday was once again overcast, foggy and rather wet with a high near 10 C. There are reports of heavy snow above 800 metres on mountain highways in B.C.

M.T. Cranium · 16-11-2015 08:44AM

Monday, 16 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers becoming less widespread as winds decrease to SW 30-50 km/hr, somewhat colder with highs 7-9 C north, 9-12 C south. About 3-5 mm rain before some heavier falls this evening.

TONIGHT ... Periods of rain in south (10-15 mm), just patchy drizzle or light rain elsewhere (2-4 mm). Lows about 4-6 C except 8-10 C south.

TUESDAY ... Rain developing, heavy at times, 10-20 mm likely. Highs 13-15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Further showers or periods of rain, lows 5-7 C and highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain becoming heavy at times, 10-20 mm, highs near 12 C. Turning colder late in day.

FRIDAY ... Windy and colder. Some risk of mixed wintry showers in Ulster, north Connacht and isolated parts of other regions, but may stay dry for some in a mixture of cloud and sunny intervals. Winds becoming northwest to north 50-80 km/hr. Morning lows 4-6 C and afternoon highs 6-8 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, windy and cold, with isolated wintry showers and falls of snow on hills in Ulster and Connacht mainly. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 4-7 C. Winds northerly 40-70 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, milder, but feeling rather raw due to strong westerly winds, rain arriving later in the day, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... A rather variable week (23rd-29th) with passing disturbances bringing more rain at times, moderate to strong winds, and near normal temperatures generally in 7-9 C range.

LONG-RANGE UPDATE ... No changes to preliminary outlook ... DEC mild more often than cold, and possibly stormy at times towards end of month although some quiet spells likely in first half. JAN becoming more variable, still perhaps stormy at times, and colder near the end when some significant cold or snow is possible although not guaranteed (chances better in Britain). FEB likely to be colder than normal too, mostly dry and settled but some risk of localized snowfalls.

My local weather was sunny and cool in strong northerly breezes, highs near 9 C on Sunday. North America is likely to see a rather mild winter until near the middle of February when it may swing more to colder and snowy conditions.

Hoping this posts successfully as I lost the first version including the saved copy about 30 mins ago.

M.T. Cranium · 17-11-2015 08:45AM

Tuesday, 17 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT -- A strong "meso-scale" low is forming west of Galway Bay and will track across the north around mid-day. With medium levels of confidence, very strong winds are expected to form in a band from Galway Bay to Dublin as this feature develops and moves across Ireland. South coast counties will also become very windy, but for now, will predict LEVEL 2 intensity winds sustained at 90-110 km/hr with gusts to 130 km/hr and possibly higher in the zone from Galway to Dublin, and 80-100 km/hr with gusts to 120 km/hr in south coast counties. Meanwhile, winds across the northern counties from Mayo to about Meath or Louth will tend to remain light easterly as the low approaches, then swing around to moderate northwest 50-80 km/hr in the wake of the system, around mid-day in Mayo and afternoon in east Ulster and north Leinster. However, be alert in that zone for possible changes especially if you are in the southern areas closer to the track. ... Rainfall will become heavy in advance of the low across Connacht and Ulster, with 15-25 mm potential over a six-hour interval. This may renew local flooding and create new flooding risks. Further south, it will be more of a showery situation with some squally hail or thunder showers possible.

Approximate timing of onset of strong winds is 1100 to 1200 on west coast and 1300h Athlone, 1400h Dublin. It is the fast development and rapid pressure oscillation of this system that will create the strong winds, not only the actual gradient which might support 80-100 km/hr alone.

As this situation is quickly evolving (and I am not) there will be updates to this alert between 0930 and 1030h.

REST OF FORECAST WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT ISSUED YESTERDAY FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY TO SUNDAY, followed by a discussion of forecast model differences showing up for next week. That package will be posted separately in about 10 minutes.

M.T. Cranium · 17-11-2015 09:04AM

Tuesday, 17 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

(part 2, please see previous post for ALERT and today's forecast

TODAY ... ALERT posted separately previous post ... very strong winds and heavy rain across the central counties, highs near 11 C, rain and increasing winds this afternoon for the north with risk of mountain snowfalls in Ulster, highs near 6 C, and showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds for the south, highs 13-15 C. Peak winds about 130 km/hr in many areas. See ALERT for other details.

TONIGHT ... Strong winds gradually easing to westerly 40-70 km/hr, rain tapering to drizzle in north, partly cloudy central and south, lows 4-7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Periods of rain, 5-15 mm potential, moderate southwest winds at times, highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain or showers, some partly cloudy intervals too, staying mild for one more day with highs near 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and turning much colder with mixed wintry showers developing, some snow on hills in Ulster and Connacht at least by evening and overnight, morning lows 4-7 C and afternoon highs 5-8 C, temperatures near freezing by evening, winds NW 50-80 km/hr.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Very cold at first with mixed wintry showers and some falls of snow on hills, although long dry or even sunny intervals in parts of south and east, so a rather hit or miss early winter outbreak, highs on Saturday near 4 C after morning lows near -1 C inland and +2 coastal ; strong northerly winds 50-80 km/hr adding a chill and possibly a source of some heavier wintry showers in parts of Ulster, potential for east coast may change closer to event but winds parallel to coast implying streamers stay on Welsh side of the Irish Sea ...then Sunday becoming somewhat milder especially in western counties, winds backing more westerly with rain following by late in the day, temperatures slowly working up from near freezing to about 8 C west, 5 C east.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Well, we know winter is near, the models are having one of those complete breakdowns in communication, with the GFS and GEM showing a generally bland westerly flow with milder temperatures and occasional rain, while the European model reloads the cold after a day of milder conditions and resumes a northerly flow. By mid-week, temperatures could be anywhere between -2 and +10 from this available guidance so all we can really say now is wait and see on that period. For now, we have the very severe potential today as our main if not only concern.

Over in BRITAIN, all of the above will be fairly similar and today's intense wind and rain event will quickly spread into western Scotland and northern England, and will also affect Wales, with the strongest winds likely to be there as well as in some eastern counties due to channelling through the Pennines. Timing will be somewhat later, 1300-1500h for peak gusts in Wales and late afternoon or evening for eastern England.

My local weather on Monday was pitiful, a steady downpour (40 mm) and fog at lower elevations, tons of heavy wet snow on mountain highways and nearby peaks, temperatures at sea level 8 C and the freezing level about 500m.

M.T. Cranium · 17-11-2015 12:16PM

UPDATE _ 1100h _ Tues 17 Nov 2015
___________________________________

No change to ALERTS. Expect onset of strong winds soon on west coast, peak speeds expected around 3 p.m. there. Onset around 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. central counties, peak gusts 4-5 p.m. and onset around 2 to 4 p.m. east coast, peak gusts around 5 to 7 p.m. ... see previous alert for all other details.

Road travel discouraged in the strong wind zone due to severe cross-wind gusts and possible tree damage. Travel with caution further north due to possible road flooding.

At this point I think the worst of this storm will be in north and west Clare into south Galway. But it will bring unusually strong gusts well inland. Further south it will be nasty but not as severe as the Feb 2014 storm in places like Limerick, Kerry and into the inland southeast.

There will be a very sharp cutoff in strong winds near the track of the low. But once the low passes those areas will see a gradual onset of moderate to strong northwest winds later this afternoon into this evening.

Current location is close to 53 N 15 W and track is east-north-east, forward speed of the low is about 50 knots. The strongest winds will develop about 50-150 kms south of the centre and will veer from SW to WNW during the event. If you think you're in the strong wind zone, take a minute to assess your vehicle location with those directions in mind and consider moving your vehicle to a less exposed spot relative to nearby trees or small structures.

M.T. Cranium · 18-11-2015 08:21AM

Wednesday, 18 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mild with periods of rain becoming showery in nature by afternoon, moderate southwest winds 50-80 km/hr. Highs near 14 C and 10-20 mm rain with heaviest amounts in a zone from Limerick to Westmeath and Monaghan this morning. Some brief sunny intervals may develop in west Munster by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, continued rather mild, lows 4-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, showers developing, some longer periods of rain in southern coastal counties, highs 9-11 C. Moderate westerly winds 40-70 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Winds increasing to 60-90 km/hr and turning more northwesterly, colder in stages with a few showers that could become wintry at times over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. It will probably be a dry and partly cloudy day for parts of the south and east. Morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs only slightly above that (3-5 C steady in north, 6-9 C south, about 7 C for Dublin).

SATURDAY ... Mixed wintry showers with some falls of snow on high ground in northwest, isolated wintry showers elsewhere with some sunshine at times, very cold and windy (northerly 50-80 km/hr). Morning lows -1 to +3 C and afternoon highs 4-7 C.

SUNDAY ... A cold start but turning somewhat milder during the day with cloudy intervals, some rain developing in Ulster towards end of the day. Morning lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7-10 C possibly not before evening. Winds continued rather brisk and becoming westerly 40-70 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... I mentioned a big disagreement in the models yesterday, that has now largely been resolved with the milder signal winning out (for the time being) so that the week of 23-29 November looks fairly bland in general with occasional rain or showers, some dry interludes and highs most days 7-10 C. As we approach the end of November, it may become quite windy although staying rather mild.

For BRITAIN, this scenario will become somewhat more wintry over the weekend, with stronger winds near the North Sea and risk of some hail or snow showers over portions of eastern England both days. The milder spell will take a bit longer to establish itself thereafter but should be in place by about Tuesday.

Across NORTH AMERICA, the main weather feature is a strong low bringing heavy rain to the Great Lakes region, a mild southerly flow to the east coast, but snow to the northern plains states. That snow has ended now in Colorado after near-blizzard conditions for part of yesterday. Meanwhile, on the west coast and across the northern Rockies, very windy with rain and mild temperatures early today, gusts to 140 km/hr in parts of eastern WA and northern ID into MT. That windstorm raced across my part of the border region during the mid-day hours on Tuesday, with gusts that may have exceeded 150 km/hr from damage reports (no weather station right at the worst hit location, Chilliwack BC). It was nowhere near that windy at my place but we managed to hit 15 C at noon before falling back to 5 C currently in a strong westerly wind.

M.T. Cranium · 19-11-2015 08:35AM

Thursday, 19 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

Wintry conditions will develop tomorrow in parts of Ulster and Connacht, and while no large falls of snow are expected, a few higher routes may develop some slippery travel conditions. This outbreak will be short-lived and will begin to modify back to milder temperatures by Sunday. The wintry showers could show up further south too, but they will become increasingly brief and scattered so that larger population centres may not see much if any impact, just be aware if you're travelling west or north.

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, showers developing, some longer periods of rain in southern coastal counties where 5-10 mm likely, otherwise amounts 1-3 mm, with highs 9-11 C. Moderate westerly winds 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Becoming colder with brisk west to northwest winds 50-80 km/hr in exposed locations and generally 40-60 km/hr elsewhere, slight chance of a few showers becoming wintry on higher ground before morning, but mainly dry in south and east. Lows 2-5 C with isolated ground frost developing in some low-lying locations in central counties.

FRIDAY ... Winds increasing to 60-90 km/hr and turning more northwesterly, colder in stages with a few showers that could become wintry at times over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. It will probably be a dry and partly cloudy day for parts of the south and east. Morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs only slightly above that (3-5 C steady in north, 6-9 C south, about 7 C for Dublin). By evening and overnight, 1-3 cm snowfalls are possible on higher terrain in the north, slushy partly melted hail lower down could be just as dangerous.

SATURDAY ... Mixed wintry showers with some slight further falls of snow on high ground in northwest, isolated wintry showers elsewhere with some sunshine at times, very cold and windy (northerly 50-80 km/hr). Morning lows -1 to +3 C and afternoon highs 4-7 C.

SUNDAY ... A cold start but turning somewhat milder during the day with cloudy intervals, some rain developing in Ulster towards end of the day starting off as sleet inland. Morning lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7-10 C possibly not before evening. Winds continued rather brisk and becoming westerly 40-70 km/hr.

MONDAY to THURSDAY of next week will bring a return to milder conditions with some rain at times, and highs 8-11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... With rather low confidence attached, there may be a reload of the two-day cold snap followed by several mild days as we leave November and enter December. Some guidance is showing somewhat more widespread snow showers developing around Sunday 29th, but as mentioned, confidence in these model runs becomes rather low that far out.

Over in BRITAIN the picture is similar and local snow showers will bring a dusting to 3 cms in a few places on the weekend although probably 80% of all locations will remain free from wintry showers (some places in southwest would be more likely to see rain or hail than wintry showers). It will be somewhat slower to warm up Sunday-Monday too.

Colder air is gradually working its way south and east from the northern plains states in NORTH AMERICA but today and most of tomorrow will remain mild on the east coast (16-19 C) with rain at times. The colder air mass is not frigid for this time of year, around 5 C. Western regions have calmed down from the windy frontal systems of Tuesday and my weather on Wednesday was fairly tolerable with a few sunny intervals, a cold wind at times and highs near 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 20-11-2015 08:27AM

Friday, 20 November, 2015

Forecast for Ireland

ALERT for wintry showers affecting travel in some parts of Connacht, west Munster and Ulster as well as a few places elsewhere, mixed falls of sleet, hail and snow mainly on higher routes could lead to slippery roads and reduced visibility later today, tonight and for part of Saturday.

TODAY ... Westerly winds increasing to 60-90 km/hr and turning more northwesterly, colder in stages with a few showers that could become wintry at times over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. It will become dry and partly cloudy for parts of the south and east after some morning and mid-day showers. Afternoon highs only slightly above current temperatures (3-5 C steady in north, 6-9 C south, about 7 C for Dublin). By evening and overnight, 1-3 cm snowfalls are possible on higher terrain in the north, slushy partly melted hail lower down could be just as dangerous.

TONIGHT ... Windy and cold, scattered outbreaks of sleet, snow or hail, winds northwest to north 50-80 km/hr, lows 0-3 C but feeling like -5 C in the strong winds. Snow showers most likely in west Ulster, north Connacht, west Munster and on higher parts of the Wicklow Mountains. There may be some heavy sleet or snow showers forming over the Irish Sea, we think most of this activity will stay over the Sea or moving inland in north Wales, but there is some potential for coastal Wicklow to be grazed by some of this activity at some point.

SATURDAY ... Mixed wintry showers with some slight further falls of snow on high ground in northwest, isolated wintry showers elsewhere with some sunshine at times, very cold and windy (northerly 50-80 km/hr). Morning lows -1 to +3 C and afternoon highs 4-7 C.

SUNDAY ... A cold start but turning somewhat milder during the day with cloudy intervals, some showers developing in Ulster towards end of the day starting off as sleet inland. Morning lows -2 to +3 C and highs 5-7 C east, and 7-10 C west by evening. Winds continued rather brisk and becoming westerly 40-70 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with a few showers developing, rain by evening or overnight, milder in stages. Lows -1 to +4 C and highs 8 to 11 C. Winds brisk west backing southwesterly 50-70 km/hr.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with scattered showers, and it may become slightly cooler at least in Ulster and north Leinster as moderate winds turn a bit more to northwest again briefly, highs 5-8 C north to 8-11 C south.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY should bring milder temperatures in general, in southwest winds with a few intervals of light rain, highs 9-12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for windy conditions near the end of the month, slowly falling temperatures in the 7-9 C range, and scattered outbreaks of rain turning to sleet over higher ground. Early December looks variable in a continuing stream of Atlantic disturbances separated by brief intervals of colder northwesterly flow.

BRITAIN can expect heavier snow or sleet showers in some regions this weekend, in particular east and south Yorkshire may see 5-15 cm falls on higher ground. Parts of north Wales are also likely to pick up snow in streamers from the Irish Sea.

In NORTH AMERICA, a fast-moving snowstorm is predicted to bring 10-20 cm amounts to Chicago and regions west and northeast of there late tonight and Saturday. This will not affect the east coast which will remain fairly mild and dry. Meanwhile, my local weather turned quite cold too, with sunshine and a high of about 6 C on Thursday.

M.T. Cranium · 21-11-2015 08:22AM

Saturday, 21 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mixed wintry showers (although rain will be fairly common at lower elevations) with some slight further falls of snow on high ground in northwest, isolated wintry showers elsewhere with some sunshine at times, cold and rather windy (northerly 40-70 km/hr). Afternoon highs near 4 C north, 6 C east and 8 C south and west.

TONIGHT ... Just a few isolated wintry showers with a slow clearing trend, not quite as windy, and very cold (-2 to +2 C) away from the west coast where lows may be about 4 C. Some frost in parts of the inland south and east.

SUNDAY ... A cold start but turning somewhat milder during the day with cloudy intervals, some coastal showers developing in Ulster towards end of the day turning to sleet inland, but most places will remain dry with highs 5-7 C east, and 7-10 C west by evening. Winds continued rather brisk and becoming westerly 40-70 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with a few showers developing, rain by evening or overnight, milder in stages. Lows -1 to +4 C and highs 8 to 11 C. Winds brisk westerly backing southwesterly 50-70 km/hr.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with scattered showers, and it may become slightly cooler at least in Ulster and north Leinster as moderate winds turn a bit more to northwest again briefly, highs 5-8 C north to 8-11 C south.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY should bring milder temperatures in general, in southwest winds with a few intervals of light rain, highs 9-12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for windy conditions near the end of the month, slowly falling temperatures in the 7-9 C range, and scattered outbreaks of rain turning to sleet over higher ground. Early December looks variable in a continuing stream of Atlantic disturbances separated by brief intervals of colder northwesterly flow.

Meanwhile, rather widespread sleet showers for today in BRITAIN with snow on higher hills, stronger winds too as a low over the North Sea causes north to northeast winds of 60-100 km/hr. Beyond that, things will be rather similar to the forecast above except that it will tend to warm up less rapidly.

Heavy snow is falling this morning in parts of the western Great Lakes region, amounts of 30 cm have already fallen northwest of Chicago. This system will push northeast and will not directly affect the east coast where it will stay dry, partly cloudy with highs near 10 C. My local weather was sunny and quite cold on Friday, frost lingered all day in the shade and the high was only 3 C.

M.T. Cranium · 22-11-2015 08:52AM

Sunday, 22 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A cold start but turning somewhat milder during the day with cloudy intervals, some widely separated showers inland, and coastal showers developing in Ulster towards end of the day turning to sleet inland, but most places will remain dry with highs 5-7 C east, and 7-10 C west by evening. Winds continued rather brisk and becoming westerly 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals south and east, frost in some places, lows -2 to +4 C, cloudy west and north, light showers possible near northwest coasts, lows 5 to 8 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with showers developing, steady rain by afternoon west and north, evening or overnight elsewhere, milder in stages and highs 8 to 11 C. Winds brisk westerly backing southwesterly 50-70 km/hr. Rain overnight will total about 10 mm. Overnight temperatures quite mild 6-9 C.

TUESDAY will become partly cloudy with scattered showers, and it may become slightly cooler at least in Ulster and north Leinster as moderate winds turn a bit more to northwest again briefly, highs 5-8 C north to 8-11 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, mild and breezy (SW 50-70 km/hr). Lows 3-5 C and highs 9-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, windy, rain at times. Lows 5-8 C and highs 11-13 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and turning colder, mixed wintry showers in north, rain or hail showers elsewhere. Lows 4-7 C then temperatures steady or even falling slightly in westerly winds 70-100 km/hr.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Windy, milder again, 7-9 C with some intervals of rain, then temperatures peaking around 11 C on Monday.

BRITAIN will be quite a bit colder today, especially south central England where it may struggle to get above freezing until afternoon. After that, the pattern should be more similar to the above forecast.

In eastern NORTH AMERICA, mostly dry and cool in the wake of Saturday's snowstorm across the Great Lakes region. Just dry cloudy conditions closer to the east coast, highs there about 10 C. Sunny and near 2 C over the fresh snow cover, also rather cool in the west under high pressure. My local weather on Saturday was sunny with a high near 7 C.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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