Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Friday 3 July 2015 at 6:40 p.m.
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WATCH is now in place for possible development of heavy thunderstorms over the eastern two thirds of Ireland tonight. Onset would be around 2300h to 0200h south coast spreading north to reach Dublin around 0300-0600h and further north into east Ulster by Saturday morning.

The best lift potential appears to be along a track from Waterford through Kildare into Meath, Louth, and Down. A secondary maximum could then develop to the east of the Wicklow and Dublin mountains.

West coast is not entirely out of the picture on this and some lightning could develop anywhere, but the risk potential is highest in the inland southeast and eastern Wicklow.

This WATCH will be upgraded to an ALERT this evening if lightning detection begins to show potential being realized. The current satellite imagery and synoptics are good but we are not yet seeing many returns from the cloud mass which represents the developing "triple point" of the frontal wave which is currently located around 50 deg N and 12 deg W. The hot and humid air mass in the warm sector of this system is only on the surface in France, and is flowing in over a shallow inversion layer in Britain, but will be present just slightly aloft by midnight over much of western Britain and the southern Irish Sea. Lift potential looks very good with an approaching sharp trough and windshift.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 3 July, 2015 _ 10:30 p.m.
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Conditions now appear to require an ALERT for scattered heavy thunderstorms overnight in eastern and central counties, as well as parts of west Munster. The current "best estimate" is that the activity will be somewhat hit or miss but could be intense where it hits, and this is more likely over east Munster, south Leinster. Where thunderstorms develop, rainfalls of 10-30 mm, frequent lightning and heavy thunder will occur, wind gusts should remain mostly moderate rather than strong, but small hail is possible. This is not considered a very conducive set-up for wind damage or a tornado (tomorrow during daytime heating when the system develops further over Britain that may happen there).

Watch for further updates.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 4 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A few heavy showers or isolated thunderstorms in parts of north Leinster and east Ulster until mid-morning, then becoming partly cloudy, with just isolated showers, although more frequent in north Connacht and west Ulster, in moderate southwest winds of 40-60 km/hr, and highs about 18 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, a few brief showers, lows 9-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, further showers likely, isolated thunderstorms and possibly some heavy bursts of rain in parts of the south and west, with highs near 17 C. About 5-10 mm rainfalls for most. Moderate southwest winds backing to southerly 40-60 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Rain or showers, heavy at times especially for Munster and south Leinster, with lows near 8 C and highs 15-18 C. Rainfalls 15-30 mm. Occasional moderate to strong wind gusts from south, 50-70 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Further showers likely, cool and breezy (W 40-60 km/hr), lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cool, breezy (NW 50-70 km/hr). Lows 5-8 C and highs 15-18 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers but mainly dry, lows 5-8 C and highs 16-19 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Warmer again by end of the week, highs could be into low 20s or even mid 20s at times by the weekend of 11th-12th.

My local weather is continuing to run hot and dry with only a slight increase in the sea breeze on Friday, highs near 26 C. Smoke haze is rapidly increasing due to outbreaks of forest fires to our northwest to northeast.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 5 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Warm and humid with occasional showers, risk of a thunderstorm. Rainfall will vary from 5 to 15 mm, heaviest amounts are likely in central counties. Highs 18-20 C. Winds southerly veering southwesterly 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, showers more isolated and fog patches developing, lows 11-13 C.

MONDAY ... Heavy showers with a few embedded thunderstorms, rainfalls of 15 to 30 mm likely ... gusty south to southwest winds 40-70 km/hr, highs 17 to 21 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, a few more showers, moderate southwest winds 40-60 km/hr, and lows 8-10 C, highs 17-19 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, cool westerly to northwesterly breezes 40-70 km/hr, and lows 7-9 C, highs 16-18 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, warmer. Lows 5-8 C and highs 18-22 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY now appear likely to be rather cloudy with chance of a few showers or periods of rain in a few northwestern regions. It will stay rather warm at 19-22 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for warmer weather to return, and there is some chance of very warm temperatures into the mid 20s.

For BRITAIN, today will likely bring some heavy thunderstorms and severe storms are likely in eastern France, parts of Belgium, Holland and Germany.

The heat continues in the far west of NORTH AMERICA but cooler air has moved south into central regions bringing some heavy to severe storms along a cold front. This will move into the northern United States today after hitting Calgary and Winnipeg on Saturday. Meanwhile, my local weather remains sunny and hot, with a high near 30 C on Saturday.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 6 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for heavy rainfalls and spot flooding, as well as the risk of heavy thunderstorms, spreading across the south and parts of north-central regions, 20-35 mm rainfalls possible.

TODAY ... Heavy rainfall will continue to spread east across Munster and south Leinster, and also from Connacht into north Leinster and south Ulster. Some spot flooding may develop in torrential rainfalls of 8-12 mm an hour. Total rainfalls 20-35 mm. This heavy rain may contain some embedded thunder, but with partial clearing spreading from the west later, heavier thunderstorms may develop in central and northeast counties. Rather warm and humid with highs reaching 20 or 21 C where some sunshine develops. Moderate south to southwest winds will develop by afternoon, 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Showers easing with some clear intervals developing, lows 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, a few more showers, moderate southwest winds 40-60 km/hr, and lows 8-10 C, highs 17-19 C. Rainfalls 5-10 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, cool westerly to northwesterly breezes 40-70 km/hr, and lows 7-9 C, highs 16-18 C. Rainfalls 2-5 mm.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, warmer. Lows 5-8 C and highs 18-22 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY now appear likely to be rather cloudy with chance of a few showers or periods of rain in a few northwestern regions, and a heavier burst of rain or possible thunderstorms with a front crossing Ireland late Friday into early Saturday -- it will stay rather warm at 19-22 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for warmer weather to return, and there is some chance of very warm temperatures into the mid 20s. However, there may be one or two more gusty frontal systems as the regime will not be dominated by high pressure.

Just briefly, the same general outcome can be expected in BRITAIN although today's heavy rain won't arrive for a while, and may be more concentrated in central regions when it does.

My local weather was something a bit different on Sunday -- heavy forest fire smoke haze developed in very hot conditions -- it would have been a clear sunny day but at times the sky was grey and the sun was red. The high at my place was a stifling 35 C, one of the warmest days I can recall here. The smoke is still rather thick at this late hour (it's coming from various fires mainly to our west on Vancouver Island and up the mainland coast).

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 7 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few showers or brief thunderstorms developing this morning, then a more active frontal band of heavy showers and possible thunderstorms with gusty winds likely mid-day west, afternoon east, winds increasing to WSW 50-70 km/hr with higher gusts possible. Rainfalls 5-15 mm although isolated 25 mm amounts possible. Highs near 19 C.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and feeling quite cool in gusty west to northwest winds of 40-60 km/hr, a few more passing showers likely, lows 6-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, cool westerly to northwesterly breezes 40-70 km/hr, highs 16-18 C. Rainfalls 2-5 mm.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, warmer. Lows 5-8 C and highs 18-22 C. Cloudy in western counties by afternoon with a few intervals of drizzle or light rain near Atlantic coasts.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy although some bright intervals eastern counties, warm with morning lows 10-13 C and afternoon highs 19-22 C ... rain should hold off for most as it continues to move north near the Atlantic coasts, but eventually these fronts will push across most of Ireland late in the day bringing 10-15 mm rainfalls overnight into Saturday.

SATURDAY ... Heavy morning showers in east will taper off to scattered light showers with a few sunny intervals developing in moderate westerly winds, morning lows 10-12 C and afternoon highs 16-19 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals and passing showers, lows about 8 C and highs about 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Generally somewhat unsettled but with some sunshine most days as well as passing showers next week, temperatures near normal in the 18-21 C range daytime hours.

My local weather on Monday continued rather hazy from forest fire smoke, although we've seen a bit of improvement in the air quality, and it remains very warm with a high near 30 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 8 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, a few passing showers although some places could remain dry, amounts generally 2-5 mm. Cool northwesterly winds at 40-60 km/hr and highs 15-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing, cool with lows falling to 5-8 C. Somewhat more cloud likely near Atlantic coasts.

THURSDAY ... West coast is likely to be mostly cloudy with a few intervals of light rain, with highs near 18 C while other regions should be partly cloudy or even sunny at times, and quite warm with highs 20-23 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals more frequent in eastern counties, occasional light rain in north and west will begin to move across other regions by evening. Lows 10-13 C and highs 19-22 C.

SATURDAY ... Morning showers then a partly cloudy, somewhat cooler day with a few more showers, mostly in central and northern counties. Amounts during the overnight rainfall 5-15 mm heavier north, then further amounts of just 1-3 mm. Lows 8-10 C and highs 16-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks mostly in north as rain may develop near south coast during the day. Lows 10-13 C and highs 14-17 C.

MONDAY ... A few showers with highs near 18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat warmer mid-week (to about 23 C) then back to the somewhat unsettled west to northwest flow that we're seeing at present.

My local weather was somewhat improved on Tuesday with the air quality slowly improving with a breeze from the southeast pushing some of the forest fire smoke haze back to where it started out. Air quality on the other hand became very poor in Whistler and some other places inland. Our high was a bit cooler as well at 24 C in hazy sunshine.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 9 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... West coast is likely to be mostly cloudy with a few intervals of light rain, with highs near 18 C while other regions should be partly cloudy or even sunny at times, and becoming quite warm with highs 19-22 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast with occasional drizzle and fog in west and some central, northern counties, partly cloudy further east, mild with lows 10-13 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals more frequent in eastern counties, occasional light rain in north and west will begin to move across other regions by evening, but much of the day should remain dry in eastern counties with highs 19-22 C.

SATURDAY ... Morning showers then a partly cloudy, somewhat cooler day with a few more showers, mostly in central and northern counties. Amounts during the overnight rainfall 5-15 mm with the heavier amounts in the north, then further amounts of just 1-3 mm except possibly 3-5 mm in parts of west Munster and Connacht. Lows 8-10 C and highs 16-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks mostly in north as rain may develop near south coast late in the day or overnight into Monday morning. Lows 10-13 C and highs 14-17 C.

MONDAY ... A few showers or periods of light rain with highs near 18 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, highs near 20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather unsettled next week after that brief dry spell, and some signs of another battleground scenario developing late in the week (towards weekend of 18th-19th) where hot and humid air may push north from France but only into parts of Britain, leaving Ireland in a frontal zone with risk of heavier rainfalls developing then. This is a long way off yet so it's just something to watch and keep in the back of one's mind. At any rate, a variation of the early July scenario would not be surprising at some point later this month as the source of very warm air remains unchanged despite the fact that it has retreated south for the time being. As part of that process, a cold front in northern Italy produced a strong tornado yesterday that caused considerable damage near Venice.

The scenario above will more or less apply in BRITAIN also, with the usual slightly warmer temperatures for parts of southern England at times. Across eastern parts of the United States, it has begun to warm up again to near normal mid-summer temperatures after about two or three weeks of cool weather. The west remains very warm with light wind circulations making it difficult for the atmosphere to dissipate large amounts of smoke haze, which began to increase again in my location on Wednesday, with hazy sunshine and a high of about 29 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 10 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, more frequent in eastern counties, as intervals of light rain in north and west will begin to move across other regions by evening, but much of the day should remain dry in eastern counties with highs 19-22 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain may become heavy for a while in east Ulster and north Leinster, moderate or just light elsewhere, so that amounts will range from about 5 mm in parts of the southeast to 15 mm or more in the northeast. Rain will end around midnight for western counties. Lows 10-13 C.

SATURDAY ... Morning showers quickly clearing northeast, then a partly cloudy, somewhat cooler day with a few more showers, mostly in western, central and northern counties. Further amounts of just 1-3 mm except possibly 3-5 mm in parts of west Munster and Connacht. Highs 16-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks mostly in north as rain may develop near south coast late in the day or overnight into Monday morning. Lows 10-13 C and highs 14-17 C.

MONDAY ... A few showers or periods of light rain with highs near 18 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, becoming rather breezy from west to northwest (50-70 km/hr), highs 15 to 19 C with cooler readings in Connacht and west Ulster, warmer in south Leinster and Munster.

WEDNESDAY ... Frequent showers appear likely, lows 8-10 C and highs 15 to 18 C. Winds backing to east and easing to more moderate speeds.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Model guidance has spread out over a wide variety of outcomes although most are close to average in terms of temperature and contain some degree of cloud and shower activity for later in the week. Not certain yet whether there may be a significant rainfall potential from low pressure lurking around to the southeast. It may just slowly buckle the flow to provide a period of dry weather as higher pressure finally has a chance to build up again. That would apply to some part of the second half of July, current charts look fairly promising around two weeks from now.

Meanwhile, warm weather continues here although a slight cooling trend is forecast. Down to the south in parts of the western U.S., some very heavy rainfalls and unusually cool temperatures were noted in parts of the Great Basin region. Salt Lake City had some urban flooding during the afternoon. My local weather was hazy with sunshine and highs near 30 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 11 July, 2015

Forecast for Ireland


TODAY ... The morning should be bright and breezy in eastern regions, then clouds will increase with rain already underway near the west coast will spread further east, although it may avoid parts of the southeast. Amounts of rain today will be generally rather slight, 2-5 mm. Highs will reach 19 C east and about 17 C west with winds from the southwest at 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... A few more showers for most locations, as well as brief clear intervals, lows 8-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloudiness and passing showers, somewhat heavier by afternoon and evening, but again only 3-5 mm for most, highs 16-18 C.

MONDAY ... Rain will become heavier (10-20 mm possible) and this will be well distributed across the country but may be somewhat heavier in central regions. Lows 10-12 C and highs 16-18 C with fog likely over some northern hills at times.

TUESDAY ... Becoming windy from early morning hours (W to NW 50-80 km/hr), passing showers, then turning rather chilly especially in western counties. Lows 7-9 C and highs about 15 C west to 19 C east.

WEDNESDAY ... A few sunny intervals, then cloudy with lows 5-8 C and highs 16-19 C, possibly a bit higher if warmer air is pulled into the southeast by an advancing low. Cloud will move into west Munster around mid-morning and other regions during the afternoon, but onset of rain is somewhat uncertain at this range, could be early to mid-afternoon at least in coastal areas of the southwest, anywhere from afternoon to late overnight further north.

THURSDAY ... Rain may become heavy at times with low pressure likely to track close to Ireland. Details will become clearer in a few days but on current estimates 10-20 mm rain possible and temperatures in the range of 14-17 C if the low tracks across Ireland, 17-20 C if it tracks a bit further north. Guidance is quite divided on this and it may end up a compromise track through Connacht and west Ulster.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY (17th-19th) will be rather unsettled too. All of this rather cloudy, breezy and showery weather will move on to affect Scotland and the Open (golf) championship. Temperatures will not be too far from normal but may be slightly below, at 16 to 18 C. Southern Britain may see 18-22 C during this spell and that potential exists for southeast Ireland if clouds break at the right time.

FURTHER OUTLOOK continues to call for gradual improvements and a dry spell of weather later in the month.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with a few spots of light rain in the morning, with a thick "marine layer" bringing cooler air 50 kms inland, although it remained hot further inland. Sunshine returned by afternoon and the highs were near 22 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 12 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny or at least brighter intervals, passing showers with 2-5 mm on average, these becoming somewhat heavier towards evening in a moderate southwesterly breeze 40-60 km/hr at times. Highs in the 16-19 C range.

TONIGHT ... Periods of rain may become rather heavy with 10-15 mm likely by morning in some central counties, a bit less near both southern and northern coasts. Lows 8-10 C. Foggy over higher parts of north-central counties.

MONDAY ... The heavier rain will begin to break up into showers around mid-day with winds increasing from southwest to west at 50-70 km/hr. A further 5-10 mm of rain will be added to the earlier overnight totals, but partial clearing may develop especially near Atlantic coasts by late afternoon. Highs 15-19 C.

TUESDAY ... Remaining windy from during the overnight hours (some gusts reaching 50-80 km/hr from northwest), a few more passing showers, then variable cloud during the day with occasional showers and turning rather chilly especially in western counties. Lows 7-9 C and highs about 15 C west to 19 C east.

WEDNESDAY ... Model guidance remains quite scattered and the range of possible outcomes is as follows -- if low pressure arrives during the day and tracks inland, there could be a rapid increase in cloud after a clear start, with rain arriving at least over western regions. But if the low is somewhat slower to develop and arrive, most of the day could turn out dry with some sunny intervals despite rather extensive higher or mid-level cloud. Lows of about 4 to 8 C are likely, and highs in either case would probably be only 15-17 C.

THURSDAY ... Rather windy with showers or periods of rain, highs near 18 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and cooler with passing showers, highs near 16 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... It continues to look rather unsettled, details won't become too clear for a while yet but would expect at least some rain and temperatures in the mid to high teens. These systems (including Thursday) are aimed almost directly at southern Scotland also, so the Open may present some weather challenges. Some parts of either northern England or southern Scotland could see some very heavy rainfalls during this period.

My local weather finally changed on Saturday, after weeks of dry weather we have actually seen some rain at times with highs near 20 C, and even one rumble of thunder. Most eastern parts of North America have turned quite warm again and highs all week will be near normal or slightly above, in the range of 29-33 C for most places.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 13 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain gradually tapering off to occasional showers with partial clearing spreading east (by afternoon in Leinster), becoming quite windy in the south and some central counties (WSW 50-70 km/hr), highs 14-16 C north and 17-20 C south. About 5-10 mm further rainfall is likely in eastern counties, possibly 2-5 mm west.

TONIGHT ... Strong wind gusts gradually abating as winds veer more to northwest, but up to around midnight NW 50-70 km/hr in exposed locations, and a few showers although amounts generally under 5 mm. Lows 7-9 C.

TUESDAY ... A few outbreaks of light rain possible mainly in south, cloudy with a few sunny breaks further north, highs 14-17 C north and 17-20 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, more sun likely in north Leinster and east Ulster, and possible outbreaks of light rain around south coast, morning lows about 4-7 C and afternoon highs 15-18 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain may be heavy at times (potential for 15-30 mm) with some risk of thunder by late in the day, as somewhat warmer air pushes north with morning lows 10-12 C and afternoon highs 15-20 C but with high humidity levels it may feel muggy in the southeast. Winds could become quite strong (60-90 km/hr) from the southeast to south near south and east coasts and from the east to northeast in parts of the northwest.

FRIDAY ... Windy and turning cooler with rain ending, except for persistent drizzle near northwest coasts. Winds west to northwest 50-70 km/hr. Temperatures steady in the range 13-16 C although could reach 18 C in the southeast if there's a bit of sunshine there.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy with a few isolated showers, moderate westerly winds 40-60 km/hr, highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain by afternoon or evening, highs near 18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Gradual improvements are still shown on the longer range maps especially towards the end of the week (of 20-24 July), so we'll have to see if this comes to pass as the current pattern seems rather stubborn.

For BRITAIN, the above scenario will apply mainly to Scotland, northern England and northwest Wales, but further south it could be quite a bit warmer at times, especially Thursday and Friday when it could be 25-27 C with an outbreak of heavy to severe storms.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy, humid with highs near 23 C, as the morning rainfall (which amounted to perhaps 5 mm) ended before sunrise. There have been more showers in the region but they missed my location so far. A lot further east, there was an outbreak of severe storms in North Dakota and Minnesota which will probably redevelop later today in the Great Lakes region including Ontario. Very warm and humid air with dew points near 27 C has been fuelling these storms.

Current outlook for The Open golf in Scotland -- Thursday, rain arriving late in the day but rather warm at 18 C, then each day after that cloudy with a few brighter intervals and rather windy and cool with highs only 13-16 C. Some rain likely each day although heavier falls may hold off until Sunday night into Monday.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 14 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A few outbreaks of rain this morning, heaviest in north Leinster and possibly south central Munster, but these areas of rain should fragment to light showers and the trend will become mainly dry for the afternoon and evening hours. A few sunny breaks will follow but it will be mostly cloudy. Highs about 17 C south, 14 C north.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals developing except for more persistent cloud near south coast. Lows 4-7 C inland, 5-9 C coastal locations.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, more sun likely in north Leinster and east Ulster, and possible outbreaks of light rain around south coast, with highs about 15-18 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain may be heavy at times (potential for 15-30 mm) with some risk of thunder by late in the day, as somewhat warmer air pushes north with morning lows 10-12 C and afternoon highs 15-20 C (warmest around Carlow and Kilkenny) but with high humidity levels it may feel muggy in the inland southeast. Winds could become quite strong (60-90 km/hr) from the southeast to south near south and east coasts and from the east to northeast in parts of the northwest as a deepening low advances north near the west coast.

FRIDAY ... Windy and turning cooler with rain gradually ending, except for persistent drizzle near northwest coasts. Showers will develop in bands across central counties with slight risk of thunder and hail. Winds west to northwest 50-70 km/hr. Temperatures steady in the range 13-16 C although highs could reach 18 C in the southeast if there's a bit of sunshine there.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy with a few isolated showers, moderate westerly winds 40-60 km/hr, highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain by afternoon or evening, highs near 18 C.

MONDAY ... Rain may be heavy at times, highs near 18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Gradual improvements are still shown on the longer range maps especially towards the end of the week (of 20-24 July), so we'll have to see if this comes to pass as the current pattern seems rather stubborn. The key is that these longer range model charts replace the low pressure tendency in the central Atlantic with a growing Azores high although it remains a bit further west than we might prefer for real warmth. Also there's the ongoing doubt that any actual change in pattern will happen as mid-July has the reputation of maintaining patterns, mid to late August is often seen as a time of year for changes in weather patterns. However there's nothing carved in stone about these tendencies and patterns can change at any point during the year.

For BRITAIN, the above scenario will apply mainly to Scotland, northern England and northwest Wales, but further south it could be quite a bit warmer at times, especially Thursday and Friday when it could be 25-27 C with an outbreak of heavy to severe storms. The weather for the Open golf continues to look rather unsettled in general with Thursday somewhat warmer than the following three days (which should be in the 15-17 C range).

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy with sunny breaks but not overly warm at 22 C. The recent light rain has barely greened up the straw-like grass which has gone into dormant mode.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 15 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Despite rather extensive mid-level or high cloud, some sunshine will develop, but a few coastal areas could see brief showers (mainly northwest and south coasts). Highs 15-19 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals north and east, with increasing cloud, but overcast in south and west with rain developing towards morning in freshening southeast winds. Lows 5-9 C north and east, 10-13 C south and west.

THURSDAY ... Rain may be heavy at times (potential for 15-30 mm) with some risk of thunder by late in the day, as somewhat warmer air pushes north with afternoon highs 15-20 C (warmest around Carlow and Kilkenny) but with high humidity levels it may feel muggy in the inland southeast. Winds could become quite strong (60-90 km/hr) from the southeast to south near south and east coasts, and from the east to northeast (50-70 km/hr) in parts of the northwest as a deepening low advances north near the west coast.

FRIDAY ... Windy and turning cooler with rain gradually ending, except for persistent drizzle near northwest coasts. Showers will develop in bands across central counties with slight risk of thunder and hail. Winds west to northwest 50-70 km/hr. Temperatures steady in the range 13-16 C although highs could reach 18 C in the southeast with a better chance for a bit of sunshine there.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy with a few isolated showers, moderate westerly winds 40-60 km/hr, highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain by afternoon or evening, highs near 18 C. Some of the rain may become heavy especially in Munster, 10-20 mm potential there.

MONDAY ... Rain may be heavy at times, before easing to showers, 10-20 mm further amounts, with highs near 18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Gradual improvement seems likely as the parade of strong (for July) frontal systems is replaced by weak gradients and some influence of higher pressure that will at least be returning to its source region of the Azores where it has also been absent recently. This should at least reduce the amounts of rain beyond mid-week to considerably smaller amounts and increase the frequency of dry spells. There's no reliable sign of any unusual warmth developing, however, at least for the rest of July.

Over in BRITAIN most of this sequence of weather events will be similar for Scotland and northern England, parts of Wales, although timed somewhat later. Around Thursday night, very warm air will try to push into southeast England but it may get cut off just before arriving, leading to heavy showers or thunderstorms early Friday. Temperatures will still manage to get into the mid 20s however, before dropping back. But for eastern Scotland and the Open golf event, the weather in general will be a challenge and it may get quite windy at times, with some rain likely although some dry spells in the mix.

My local weather on Tuesday was quite pleasant, sunny and 24 C. The eastern half of the U.S. had widespread severe storms and considerable damage from flooding, in particular in Ohio and Kentucky.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 16 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Overcast with rain at times, becoming rather heavy in western counties by afternoon and evening. About 10 mm of rain expected in east but as much as 30 mm in parts of west. Slight risk of embedded thunderstorms. Winds increasing to southeast veering to southwest late in the day, 40-70 km/hr, with potential for higher gusts this evening in Kerry and Cork. Highs about 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT ... Heavier rain becoming mostly confined to Ulster, breezy or windy elsewhere (SW 40-70 km/hr), some showers developing and lows 11-13 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, bands of showers becoming heavy in a few locations in a southwest to west wind flow (50-80 km/hr), further rainfalls 5-15 mm likely heavier in western counties. Highs 14-17 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloudiness, isolated showers, lows 8-11 C and highs about 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud may allow for some sunshine in Leinster and Ulster at least before mid-afternoon, rain will gradually spread into Munster and south Connacht then cover all regions overnight, with 10-20 mm likely by Monday morning. Sunday morning lows 8-12 C and highs 17-20 C.

MONDAY ... Morning rain or showers may break to partly cloudy skies with strong southwest breezes, lows near 14 C and highs near 21 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather unsettled all week, but with weaker systems some of the rainfall may be light and showery. Highs 16-20 C.

Generally speaking, northern parts of BRITAIN will see this same sequence of weather events but up to half a day later. This will mean that Friday at the Open golf may be quite wet and windy. The rest of the weekend will continue breezy but Sunday may not be too bad as the rain may not hit until after sunset. Meanwhile, tonight and Friday morning could see some heavy thunderstorms in southeast England as hot, humid air over parts of France and Belgium attempt to push into the southeast. As that gets lifted off the surface by fronts extending from the low west of Ireland, it could produce some strong storms overnight. But despite that it will be a few degrees warmer both days in southern England than further north or west, reaching about 24-26 C.

There have been some heavy storms again in some central regions of North America, but mostly dry near both east and west coasts ... my local weather on Wednesday was sunny with increasing high cloud, and highs near 24 C.

Astronomy note -- New moon has just occurred as of 0224h Irish summer time. If you happen to have any clear breaks Saturday evening, you may get a view of the crescent moon very close to Venus with Jupiter in the general vicinity. You'll need a good view of the western horizon for this, around 11 p.m. Saturday.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 17 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, bands of showers becoming heavy in a few locations in strong southwest to west winds (50-80 km/hr), further rainfalls 5-15 mm likely heavier in western counties. Highs 14-17 C. Wind gusts are likely to be particularly strong and persistent near Galway Bay this morning and near Donegal Bay this afternoon and evening as the low moves very slowly north away from its current location off the Mayo coast.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing with showers more confined to Ulster and becoming drizzly there, lows 8-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloudiness, isolated showers becoming outbreaks of moderate rain in some central counties by mid-day with potential for 5-10 mm rainfalls, and highs about 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud may allow for some sunshine in Leinster and Ulster at least before mid-afternoon, and slowly advancing rain will gradually spread into Munster and south Connacht by late afternoon or evening, and will then cover all regions overnight, with 10-20 mm likely by Monday morning. Sunday morning lows 8-12 C and highs 17-20 C.

MONDAY ... Morning rain or showers may break to partly cloudy skies with strong southwest breezes 40-60 km/hr, lows near 14 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

TUESDAY ... A few more showers, breezy but cooler with highs 15-18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The unsettled theme is likely to continue with indications of further rainfalls of 10-20 mm around Thursday and Sunday, timing may change but expect a sequence of wet and mostly dry days with the storm track apparently stuck in its current position across Ireland. Pressures are still gradually rising in the central Atlantic towards the end of the month but improvement is probably going to be very gradual at best.

Over in BRITAIN, after some heavy overnight storms around Cambridge, most regions are now in the moist Atlantic southwesterly flow, and some heavy rainfalls will persist to mid-day in Scotland, with strong winds at times. In fact, there will be only marginal improvements in the weather for the Open golf until late in Saturday's play, but Sunday might not be too bad although still quite cool as highs will only be around 14-16 C all three days remaining.

I am beginning to feel guilt and remorse in reporting my local weather but as that is the custom, I will mention that it was sunny again with a high near 25 on Thursday. We'll have to work on at least a partial exchange of weather for a while as we could use the rain here.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 18 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Intervals of light rain or drizzle will spread from Connacht into parts of Leinster and Ulster, while Munster and parts of south Leinster will see a few widely scattered showers with some places remaining dry. Rainfalls about 5 mm with highs 16-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain may become heavier for a while with risk of embedded thunder, 5-15 mm likely, lows 10-13 C.

SUNDAY ... Clearing during the early morning except for some lingering drizzle near east coast for a short time, then sunny intervals, highs 16-19 C.

MONDAY ... Rain from early morning in west, spreading to eastern counties during the morning, then becoming quite breezy again from southwest at 40 to 60 km/hr. Rainfalls 5-10 mm. Lows 7-9 C and highs 15-18 C.

TUESDAY ... A few more showers but gradually clearing during the afternoon, moderate westerly winds, highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Mainly dry mid-week but further showers develioping towards the weekend and possibly a spell of heavier rain by Saturday 25th. Temperatures near normal for late July or slightly below with highs 17-20 C.

Over in BRITAIN, they are now getting the peak gusts of the departing storm and this may continue much of the day in Scotland with gusts to 90 km/hr. It will be considerably less windy in parts of southern England. Tomorrow could start out with some rain then become partly cloudy at least for the Open golf.

My local weather on Friday was sunny with highs near 27 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 19 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny intervals in south, mostly cloudy central and northern counties with occasional light showers in parts of north, mainly light winds but moderate westerly at times in exposed locations of northern and west-central counties. Highs near 18 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming moderate to heavy at times in south and west, about 10-15 mm likely, but 5-10 mm east and north. Moderate southerly winds developing, lows 10-12 C.

MONDAY ... Heavy showers with risk of thunder or hail during the morning, then partial clearing with a few more showers developing. Highs 18-20 C. Winds southwest 50-70 km/hr. Further rainfalls 10-15 mm.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers (3-7 mm). Lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continued rather unsettled and somewhat cooler than normal (highs mostly 16-18 C). There continue to be indications of improvement in the second week of the outlook period, but at this point one has to wonder if the cold Atlantic sea surface temperatures are forcing the jet stream to remain south for much of the summer, despite the fact that the Azores high does seem to be trying to rebuild.

For BRITAIN, much the same picture, although last night's rainfalls are going to continue over eastern Scotland (and the Open golf event) for part of the morning. At least today's wind speeds should be moderate at worst. The fourth round now scheduled for Monday may see wind and rain problems too.

Hot weather is returning to all regions of NORTH AMERICA and highs could reach 35 C in the eastern U.S. for the first time in some cases this summer. Heat also continues in the west, my local weather on Saturday was sunny with a high near 31 C and it remains sweltering overnight.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 20 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A few showers will continue mostly in eastern and northern counties this morning, but clearing will be partial at best and confined to the inland south. Eventually more showers and an interval of somewhat heavier rain will develop this afternoon and evening, 5-10 mm could fall in parts of the west. Higfhs 18-21 C with the warmest readings in the inland southeast. Moderate south to southwest winds developing, 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, a few showers, moderate southwest to west winds, lows about 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, passing showers (3-5 mm) and moderate southwest to west winds 40-60 km/hr, highs 16-18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, just a few isolated light showers and some places likely to remain dry, cool for late July. Lows 6-9 C and highs 15-18 C.

THURSDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, isolated showers, cool. Lows about 7 C and highs about 16 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, moderate westerly winds, lows 5-8 C and highs about 17 C. Just a few isolated showers.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, a bit warmer, rain by evening. Highs near 20 C.

MONDAY ... Rain may become heavier, highs near 19 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Turning quite cool again after this rain event, mid-teens for highs, but the longer range charts begin to look much improved beyond that as much higher pressure is shown over the eastern Atlantic. This could lead to another warm spell like the one at the end of June, hopefully this one will last a bit longer (would say first week of August rather than any part of July for this).

Meanwhile, similar trends for BRITAIN, the weather for the final round of the Open should be so-so with some outbreaks of light rain, and moderate wind gusts at times from the southeast veering a bit more southerly at times (it does not look to me like it would turn fully southwest there). Good luck to the Irish players anyway.

Very hot weather in many places in NORTH AMERICA, the hottest day of the summer so far on Sunday on both coasts at Seattle and at Washington DC (I know, it's not really on the coast) and New York City. Scorching here too with a high of 34 C in full sunshine.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 21 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, passing showers (3-5 mm) and moderate southwest to west winds 40-60 km/hr, highs 16-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing, chilly with lows 6-9 C. There may still be the odd light shower near north and west coasts.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, just a few isolated light showers although heavier rain could brush north Donegal by afternoon, otherwise generally light amounts if any, and some places likely to remain dry, cool for late July. Highs only 15-18 C.

THURSDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, isolated showers, cool. Lows about 7 C and highs about 16 C. Somewhat heavier showers will continue near the north coast.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, moderate westerly winds, lows 5-8 C and highs about 17 C. Just a few isolated showers.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, a bit warmer, rain by evening. Highs near 20 C.

MONDAY ... Rain may become heavier, highs near 19 C. Moderate to strong winds could develop, stay tuned.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Very cool and windy for a day or two following this wet spell, highs only 13-17 C. Models continue to show improvements near the end of July into the first week to ten days of August, but we will have to keep our fingers crossed on that.

My local weather on Monday started out cloudy and cooler, then the sun was out during the afternoon and the high was about 24 C. Unfortunately, scattered storms on Sunday night have created new forest fires that are threatening locations in south central B.C. and east-central Washington state.

Also, it was once again the hottest day of the year on Monday in NYC and Boston, highs around 34 C. These warmer temperatures are likely to interact with the storm track over the central Atlantic and fuel that storm system in the forecast for Sunday-Monday, rather than just crossing the Atlantic to arrive as a warm spell (it will turn hot again in France though).

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 22 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with just a few brief sunny intervals, occasional light showers giving 1-3 mm amounts, and very cool especially in Connacht and Ulster, highs 13 in north and west to 17 C south and east, 15 C central.

TONIGHT ... A few more clear intervals may allow minimum temperatures to fall to 5-8 C but there will continue to be some patchy cloud and isolated showers mainly north and west.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers, continued very cool with highs again in the 13-17 C range.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers becoming somewhat heavier although some places may remain dry, with lows 5-8 C and highs 14-19 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows 7-10 C and highs 17-20 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will see a moderate to heavy rainfall event that could drop 20-40 mm of rain in some places, now looking heavier on Sunday but continuing into Monday morning before partial clearing, highs both days around 16 to 18 C. Moderate southeast to south winds veering to westerly may produce some gusts to 60 km/hr.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY of next week will then be breezy and cool with passing showers, highs 14-17 C, winds northwest 40-70 km/hr.

The FURTHER OUTLOOK continues to provide optimism but I should caution that this warmer and drier spell is still outside what is considered a reliable time frame at ten to fifteen days. If it comes off, though, temperatures may get into the 20s for a few days with considerably more sunshine than this current very dull spell of weather (for July, it has averaged only about half the normal amount so far this month and that despite a few sunny days to start).

For BRITAIN, the picture will be broadly similar for regions north of the Midlands and central Wales, but considerably more rain is likely to fall in the south around Thursday night and Friday as a frontal system that misses Ireland to the south moves in. If your plans are taking you to France or Spain, however, much of the period will be a lot warmer as heat continues to hold over Spain and southern France.

Across NORTH AMERICA, the recent heat in eastern regions has backed off slightly although it remains close to normal values, and heavy storms have developed in parts of the southeast. Extremely hot temperatures are being noted in the southeastern states now. The far west remains largely dry and warm although parts of western Canada and central California have seen storms recently, some of them quite heavy. My local weather remained dry on Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies and highs near 23 C, one of the cooler days we have had this very hot summer season. Some of the fires that I mentioned have been partially contained and while serious the situation seems to be more or less under control in most cases near human settlements anyway.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 23 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, scattered showers mainly rather light but some becoming a bit heavier mid-day, 2-5 mm amounts likely. Highs near 14 C north and west, 16 or 17 C central, southern and eastern counties.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, some scattered outbreaks of light rain, somewhat heavier at times near south coast where 5 mm could fall (heavier rain offshore will then head for southern England). Lows 7-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, scattered showers, slight risk of a brief thundershower, highs 14-17 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals with showers more isolated, breezy at times, lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain from early morning hours in west will spread rapidly across the country, some heavier bursts may contain thunderstorms in parts of east and central, southern counties. Potential for 15-25 mm rainfalls. Lows 11-13 C and highs 15-18 C. Moderate southerly winds developing, slowly veering more to southwest, 40-70 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Breezy, cool, occasional showers (5-10 mm further rainfall), lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C, winds west to northwest 40-70 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... A few sunny intervals, and a brief break from the wet weather although one or two isolated showers, lows 5-8 C and highs 15-19 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... This period has become quite uncertain with much different guidance on some of the global models. One gives indications of another strong frontal system and heavy rainfalls, strong winds, but others show slowly improving settled weather. Hopefully we will see a more unified theme by tomorrow and that theme will be good weather, but no promises yet. As to the longer term and even more improvement in August, this is also somewhat in dispute between different model runs and while not necessarily off the table, we have no certain indications of any real trends yet. At least there is some chance for improvements anyway. But having said that, the next five or six days will be relatively poor weather for late July and probably the worst part of the summer so far, so improvement may not be that difficult to find.

As suggested in the forecasts, southern England will see considerably heavier rain on Friday than any part of Ireland, but there will be more sharing of the Sunday-Monday rainfalls (group hug).

If you have any left over, we could use a few days of steady rain here as it has become tinder dry with about 10% of normal rainfall since early May across most of the far west (except California which is beginning to see pockets of heavy rain that are probably a precursor of a wet winter there with the strong El Nino phenomenon underway). Wednesday brought severe storms to Alberta with hail on the ground all day in some places and severe crop damage. My local weather a bit further west was mostly overcast and relatively cool by this summer's standards, highs near 22 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 24 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A few hours of rain will continue over south Leinster while ending soon in east Munster. Most other places will start out dry with a few sunny intervals developing, but showers will build up during the mid-day period while the rain in the southeast departs for Britain. Since winds will be northwest on the west coast and a little east of due north in Leinster, a convergence zone extending north-south through central Ireland may prove to be the location for heavier showers this afternoon, but all locations will have some risk of a brief downpour. Average amounts will be only 2-5 mm. Highs should reach 17 C with winds generally 30-50 km/hr but some higher gusts near exposed coasts.

TONIGHT ... Clearing with moderate northwest winds continuing in exposed coastal locations but becoming almost calm inland, with fog patches and quite cool overnight lows of 4-7 C (8-10 C coasts).

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, just a few isolated showers developing in parts of the inland west later afternoon. Highs 17-20 C.

SATURDAY NIGHT into SUNDAY ... Heavy showers will develop, 10-20 mm of rain likely by mid-morning Sunday. Moderate southerly winds 40-60 km/hr will veer more to southwest with a partial clearance leading to development of heavy and possibly thundery showers during the afternoon, amounts quite variable but some places could see an additional 10-20 mm. The midlands and east Munster are perhaps more likely to see thunder and downpours, and hail could develop. Lows 11-13 C and highs 17-19 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers, moderate to strong southwest to west winds 40-70 km/hr becoming more northwesterly in Connacht during the afternoon, lows 8-10 C and highs 15-17 C. About 5-10 mm further rain.

TUESDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, a few more showers, moderate and chilly northwest winds 40-60 km/hr in the morning but improving to sunny spells and light winds by afternoon and evening. Lows 6-9 C and highs 14-17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine, light winds, although there remains some risk of a weather system to the south tracking closer to Ireland and changing this outlook at least in Munster and south Leinster. At present, it looks fairly dry in general and lows 5-8 C, highs 17-20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pattern does appear to be shifting slightly at least, with higher pressure at least coming and going during the outlook period, but at this point it's very difficult to say whether Ireland will see longer dry intervals or just alternating spells of dry and wet weather, the chances are better for the southeast perhaps than other regions and it will certainly be a few degrees warmer than recently with highs more frequently in the 18-22 C range. This is because the jet stream appears to be lifting at least slightly further north allowing at least a weak connection to the warmer Azores high, but the full effects of this may require a few cycles, my guess being that the best weather of the late summer (parts of June were nice) will be late August into early September.

Meanwhile, for BRITAIN, the system that is hovering off the south coast this morning will slam into southern England with a full load of 15-30 mm rainfalls and strong northeast winds in some coastal locations, later today. It will be unseasonably cool in places like south Wales, Bristol and the Thames valley with highs only around 15 or 16 C. Further north the weather will be more similar to what's expected in Ireland, partly cloudy with scattered outbreaks of light rain. By Sunday there won't be much difference in the outlook when comparing Britain and Ireland.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny with a high near 25 C. We're expecting a few showers (probably the first significant rain here in about two months) over the next few days.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 25 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny intervals, just a few isolated showers developing in parts of the inland west later afternoon. Highs 17-20 C. Winds moderate northwest at times this morning will back into the southwest by afternoon, gradients will be stronger near Atlantic and north coasts where some gusts to 50 km/hr can be expected. By contrast, the inland southeast may have nearly calm conditions at times.

TONIGHT into SUNDAY ... Heavy showers will develop overnight, with 10-20 mm of rain likely in most places by mid-morning Sunday. Moderate southerly winds 40-60 km/hr will veer more to southwest with a partial clearance leading to development of heavy and possibly thundery showers during the afternoon, amounts quite variable but some places could see an additional 10-20 mm. The midlands and east Munster are perhaps more likely to see thunder and downpours, and hail could develop. There may also be some brief sunny intervals which will just encourage these showers to develop. Overnight lows 11-13 C and highs 17-19 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers, moderate to strong southwest to west winds 40-70 km/hr becoming more northwesterly in Connacht during the afternoon, lows 8-10 C and highs 15-17 C. About 5-10 mm further rain.

TUESDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, a few more showers, moderate and chilly northwest winds 40-60 km/hr in the morning but improving to sunny spells and light winds by afternoon and evening. Lows 6-9 C and highs 14-17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine, light winds, although there remains a slight risk of a weather system to the south tracking closer to Ireland and changing this outlook at least in Munster and south Leinster. At this point, the main effects of this low appear to be thicker cloud for the south during the morning at least and otherwise it looks fairly dry in general with lows 5-8 C, highs 17-20 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY should remain partly cloudy with more seasonable temperatures, and only isolated showers most likely to be found in the northwest coastal regions. Highs will be about 18-20 C.

OUTLOOK for EARLY AUGUST now includes a new feature that has shown up on all major models this morning, a rather deep low of subtropical origins heading either near or through Ireland around Sunday 2nd of August. This won't be a genuine tropical storm but it may have a slight resemblance in terms of a tight gradient and locally heavy rainfall potential. We'll be watching this with interest, and it should be stressed at this point that confidence in its actual existence is only moderate at this range, but when all the models show a similar outcome that places confidence in the moderate rather than low range even at eight days. Beyond this system, slight improvement is the general theme at least in terms of temperatures and less frequent rainfall.

It occurs to me as I look at the longer term charts that if the hurricane season does become active in August and September, storms may track closer to Ireland than in some past years because of the likely tracks they will have to take to stay over warmer waters in the central Atlantic, so we will have to be alert for this possibility of seeing a strong tropical remnant of some kind (please note, this is not quite saying that a tropical storm or hurricane will strike Ireland, just a more active remnant system seems statistically more probable than average).

Meanwhile, in BRITAIN, the picture will be generally similar after they deal with the last few hours of the departing strong wind-rain combination that is now well out into the North Sea but still blasting much of England with wind gusts to 70 km/hr and temperatures only around 10 C. In NORTH AMERICA we have seen much cooler weather across most of the border regions in the west, with 15 mm of rain falling at my place on Friday and a high of only 19C. The grass refuses to believe this is real and remains an odd yellow colour but maybe with further showers on the way this weekend, there will be a slow recovery from the drought. It has certainly reduced the immediate threat of the now smouldering forest fires all over the region. However, this interruption to the heat and sunshine is only expected to last four days, then it's back to summer here. Conditions in eastern North America have been close to average with the 33-35 C heat expected to return late next week.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 26 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... The heavier rain should end soon in all counties except those in Ulster and some parts of Connacht and Leinster that border on Ulster. In those counties, the rain will edge further north and east rather slowly with 10-20 mm further accumulations and gusty southeast winds 40-70 km/hr. Elsewhere, expect some sunny intervals to develop, followed by clusters of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms. Those might be heaviest from about Limerick to Kildare by afternoon but other locations will be at some risk as well, and a few of these storms could produce spot flooding due to 10-15 mm an hour rainfall rates. There may be some hail with a few of these storm cells especially in south-central counties. Generally speaking, winds in the south and central counties will slowly veer more to the south then southwest at about 40-70 km/hr with higher gusts possible near storms and on exposed coasts. Highs will vary from 15 C north to 19 C inland south, about 17 C in Dublin.

TONIGHT ... A few more passing showers with some remnant areas of steady rain in north Ulster, winds west-southwest at about 40-60 km/hr, and lows near 11 C. Average rainfalls about 2-5 mm.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, some steady rain continuing near north coasts in westerly gales, otherwise passing showers with some isolated hail or thunder, as winds continue to turn gradually more to the west then northwest at about 50-80 km/hr. Highs will be only 14-16 C for most but could reach 17 C near east and south coasts. Average rainfalls about 3-7 mm but 7-15 mm in north Ulster.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy with a few more showers (1-3 mm), gusty northwest winds 40-70 km/hr, and quite chilly with lows 7-9 C and highs about 15 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY should bring some improvement especially for eastern and southern counties where dry weather will last longer, it may be raining by Friday in parts of the west. During this somewhat warmer interval, highs could reach 19-21 C although Wednesday may be closer to 18 C.

SATURDAY (1st of August) could have some dry spells but timing of a strong disturbance expected on SUNDAY (2nd) is uncertain enough that you might want to check frequently for updates, eventually it looks rather certain now that there will be a significant wind and rain event on or around Sunday 2nd with potential for 20-30 mm rainfalls and wind gusts (SW-W) to 90 km/hr. Once that storm has passed, it may be relatively settled for a few days with further showery fronts likely into about the second week of August. See yesterday's forecast outlook period for some thoughts about the potential for tropical systems later in August or in September.

Will update in more detail for BRITAIN tomorrow, trends will be similar and this cooler weather will slowly take over much of France and Germany during the week with the hot air masses being pushed back to regions of southern France and the Mediterranean.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with just a few sprinkles of light rain and also a few brief sunny breaks, and the high was about 22 C. We are expecting a bit more rain on Sunday then another warm, dry spell.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 27 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


Unpleasant to say the least for today and Tuesday, slight improvements mid-week, then a complex storm will influence the weekend of 1-2 August but models are currently struggling to find an exact track, some solutions bring a very strong wind and rain event into Ireland while others are starting to push the centre further west which would reduce the impacts slightly (the same storm would be out in the Atlantic and heading north towards Iceland on those maps).

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, some steady rain continuing near north coasts, where winds will start out light easterly but become moderate northeast to north later, while most other regions will see strong westerly winds, making their presence felt already on the south coast, and later this morning through central regions as the gradient increases. The westerly flow will contain numerous light showers or intervals of drizzle mixed with bursts of moderate rain, and it will remain very cool with winds westerly and then northwest by afternoon and evening, at about 50-80 km/hr once the weak circulation near the low centre moves further east. Highs will be only 14-16 C for most but could reach 17 C near east and south coasts. Some parts of the northwest and north could be held to 12-14 C. Average rainfalls about 3-7 mm but 7-15 mm in north Ulster.

TONIGHT ... Continued windy and feeling very raw (winds NW 40-70 km/hr) with passing showers or intervals of drizzly light rain, 1-3 mm likely, lows about 8 or 9 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy with a few more showers (1-3 mm), gusty northwest winds 40-70 km/hr, and quite chilly with highs about 15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... The one main improvement will be somewhat lighter winds and less frequent showers, but it may remain largely overcast with a few sunny intervals in the southwest. Winds northwest 30-50 km/hr at times, morning lows 6-8 C and afternoon highs 15-17 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals and a bit warmer, after a rather chilly overnight low of 5-8 C, afternoon should warm to about 19 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain becoming heavy at times in parts of the west and north, while it may be just cloudy in parts of the east and southeast. Highs 15-18 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... We are basically in storm watch mode but confidence in the actual arrival of this storm is probably no better than moderate at this point. The best case scenario would be two rather cloudy days with occasional showers and near normal temperatures. The worst case scenario is a strong rain and wind event with potential for gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed coastal regions. Various intermediate possibilities also exist, and with the Atlantic now in this very unusual thermal pattern (temperatures are basically more typical of early spring in much of the western and central mid-latitudes of the ocean) it seems fairly clear that the weather models are struggling because it is now almost expected that their scenarios beyond 4-5 days will change closer to the time and usually to something colder and wetter. This is not absolutely guaranteed to keep happening, the right placement of a blocking high would negate the influence of the cold ocean (the North Sea by contrast is actually a bit warmer than it usually is at this time of year). However, getting that blocking high to develop seems to be a tall order at this point.

For what it's worth, the models are generally showing a somewhat warmer week once this storm, whatever its actual track, departs the scene. The versions that have it heading north towards Iceland actually take remnants back to the west for a second "go around" while the versions that bring it near Ireland then move it rapidly off into northern Norway, so either way, a weak ridge could form over western Europe at some point.

In any case, any definitive forecasts for the weekend will have high bust potential and if they verify it will be luck of the draw. By about Wednesday the actual evolution of this weekend event should be clearer and we can be more definite.

Meanwhile, all of the same applies to the forecasts for BRITAIN over the next several days, but it will take at least half a day longer to get rid of the current system there and any mid-week improvements may then last a bit longer before any influence of the Atlantic storm arrive possibly well on into Saturday or even Sunday in some cases.

The weather regime over much of NORTH AMERICA is fairly close to seasonal normal values at this point, with warming trends expected in many regions during this week. Sunday at my location was quite a wet day at first but it remained dry in the afternoon with a few sunny breaks and highs near 21 C. We are now expecting mostly sunny days with highs into the 27-29 C range by mid-week.

I may post an update just concerning the weekend scenario if the models that run this afternoon have any different themes than the spread I just mentioned. If there's no update from me, it probably means that the models are showing roughly the same spread of outcomes. Even within the GFS model the various "perturbations" show quite a spread. The European model this morning has the more intense near-to-Ireland track and the position shown in just off the southwest coast at midnight Saturday (00h Sunday). The track would then be northeast across parts of Connacht into Ulster. As I say, confidence in this at six days out can only be described as moderate if not even quite low. It would be a system capable of minor wind damage if it comes off as shown on the European model. The Canadian GEM model has a rather similar outcome on its latest runs. The GFS "operational" (the blend that they prefer from their many possible outcomes) takes the storm considerably further west and it would be Iceland getting the strong winds and heaviest rain from it. Closer in, some of the higher resolution models will give us perhaps better indications of the details to expect. For now, I would keep it in mind that next weekend could be rather stormy especially near any exposed coasts.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 28 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


Various models are now converging on a forecast solution for the Sunday wind and rain event, and there is also a slightly slower pace that will bring the worst of the conditions overnight Sunday into Monday. The current consensus track is fairly close to Ireland but just far enough into the Atlantic that wind gusts should peak at around 80 km/hr. This is not "carved in stone" by any means and further changes may be necessary as we get closer to the event.


TODAY ... Partly cloudy with a few more showers (1-3 mm), gusty northwest winds 40-70 km/hr, and quite chilly with highs about 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT ... A few clear intervals, but also one or two remnant showers, as winds slowly moderate to 30-50 km/hr. Lows 6-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... The one main improvement will be somewhat lighter winds and less frequent showers, but it may remain largely overcast with a few sunny intervals in the southwest. Winds northwest 30-50 km/hr at times, with afternoon highs about 15-17 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals and a bit warmer, after a rather chilly overnight low of 5-8 C, afternoon should warm to about 19 C. Increasing cloud western counties with light rain arriving by evening.

FRIDAY ... Rain becoming heavy at times in parts of the west and north, while it may be just cloudy in parts of the east and southeast for much of the day. Lows around 11 C and highs 15-18 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy with just a few isolated showers in a brisk southwest to west wind, lows 7-9 C and highs 15-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, timing of a storm system still rather uncertain but sequence should be a few early bright spells at least in eastern and northern counties, then mid-day thickening cloud, followed by rain arriving with strong southerly winds at times late afternoon or evening 50-80 km/hr, veering to southwest overnight. Morning lows 7-10 C and afternoon highs 16-19 C, potential for 20-30 mm rainfalls by Monday morning.

MONDAY ... Windy with passing showers, strong southwest to west winds 50-90 km/hr in exposed northwest coastal areas, 50-70 km/hr elsewhere. Lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models are showing a secondary low for Tuesday night and Wednesday (4-5 August) with showers and highs 16-17 C, followed by somewhat more settled weather with a gradual return to more normal early August temperatures 18-21 C, but confidence is low to moderate in these improvement scenarios as the Atlantic seems determined to overcome any efforts by the Azores high to visit Ireland. So it's a waiting game to see whether any proposed slight improvements are going to materialize, or perhaps just more of the same.

Briefly (will update other regions tomorrow) my local weather on Monday started to clear during the afternoon and already it feels a lot warmer with highs near 25 C. The rest of the week should be 28-30 C in sunshine. The recent rains have partially restored our local grass to a more normal semi-dormant midsummer look instead of the bright yellow straw that we had. Reservoirs have recovered slightly and many fires were brought under control but further south where this rain was much lighter, Oregon is now seeing some very severe fires, in particular near Bend in the Cascades south-southeast of Portland.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 28 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


Various models are now converging on a forecast solution for the Sunday wind and rain event, and there is also a slightly slower pace that will bring the worst of the conditions overnight Sunday into Monday. The current consensus track is fairly close to Ireland but just far enough into the Atlantic that wind gusts should peak at around 80 km/hr. This is not "carved in stone" by any means and further changes may be necessary as we get closer to the event.


TODAY ... Partly cloudy with a few more showers (1-3 mm), gusty northwest winds 40-70 km/hr, and quite chilly with highs about 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT ... A few clear intervals, but also one or two remnant showers, as winds slowly moderate to 30-50 km/hr. Lows 6-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... The one main improvement will be somewhat lighter winds and less frequent showers, but it may remain largely overcast with a few sunny intervals in the southwest. Winds northwest 30-50 km/hr at times, with afternoon highs about 15-17 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals and a bit warmer, after a rather chilly overnight low of 5-8 C, afternoon should warm to about 19 C. Increasing cloud western counties with light rain arriving by evening.

FRIDAY ... Rain becoming heavy at times in parts of the west and north, while it may be just cloudy in parts of the east and southeast for much of the day. Lows around 11 C and highs 15-18 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy with just a few isolated showers in a brisk southwest to west wind, lows 7-9 C and highs 15-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, timing of a storm system still rather uncertain but sequence should be a few early bright spells at least in eastern and northern counties, then mid-day thickening cloud, followed by rain arriving with strong southerly winds at times late afternoon or evening 50-80 km/hr, veering to southwest overnight. Morning lows 7-10 C and afternoon highs 16-19 C, potential for 20-30 mm rainfalls by Monday morning.

MONDAY ... Windy with passing showers, strong southwest to west winds 50-90 km/hr in exposed northwest coastal areas, 50-70 km/hr elsewhere. Lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models are showing a secondary low for Tuesday night and Wednesday (4-5 August) with showers and highs 16-17 C, followed by somewhat more settled weather with a gradual return to more normal early August temperatures 18-21 C, but confidence is low to moderate in these improvement scenarios as the Atlantic seems determined to overcome any efforts by the Azores high to visit Ireland. So it's a waiting game to see whether any proposed slight improvements are going to materialize, or perhaps just more of the same.

Briefly (will update other regions tomorrow) my local weather on Monday started to clear during the afternoon and already it feels a lot warmer with highs near 25 C. The rest of the week should be 28-30 C in sunshine. The recent rains have partially restored our local grass to a more normal semi-dormant midsummer look instead of the bright yellow straw that we had. Reservoirs have recovered slightly and many fires were brought under control but further south where this rain was much lighter, Oregon is now seeing some very severe fires, in particular near Bend in the Cascades south-southeast of Portland.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Tues 28 July 2015 _ 4:40 p.m.


ALERT for severe thunderstorms over parts of the southeast, with east Offaly, Kildare, Wicklow, south Dublin, Laois, Carlow, north Wexford most at risk for heavy downpours 10-15 mm an hour, frequent thunder and possible small hail to 2 cm. This activity should begin to weaken around 6:30-7:00 p.m.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 29 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy with a few remnant light showers, more frequent in parts of the north, with northwesterly breezes 30-50 km/hr, and highs near 14 in northwest, to 17 C in southeast.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, cool, lows 5-8 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny with increasing cloud mid-day, overcast by afternoon in western counties followed by outbreaks of light rain there, highs 16-19 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain may become rather heavy across the west during the morning, slowly clearing east, then an interval of moderate rain will develop late in the day for eastern counties. Amounts 5-15 mm with the heavier falls inland west. Morning lows 10-12 C and afternoon highs 16-18 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy with just a few isolated showers near northern and some western coastlines, increasingly humid, lows 7-9 C and highs 16-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Periods of rain will develop during the morning in the south and west, spreading to the north and east by afternoon or evening, in strong southerly winds 50-80 km/hr with the risk of higher gusts near exposed south and west coasts. About 20-30 mm of rain may fall during this storm which will persist into early Monday. Temperatures steady 15-17 C.

MONDAY ... Gradual clearing, except for some areas of rain persisting in north Ulster, still quite windy (southwest 50-80 km/hr).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Yet another wet frontal system appears likely now mid-week, then faint signs of improvement to near normal conditions by the second week of August.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and very warm with the high 28 C. New York City's Central Park had a new high for this summer, 35 C but this is probably a degree or two below the average for that statistic so perhaps we're not done yet there. Houston's main airport hit 100 F for the first time this year, also a bit behind the average pace, but above normal for the date. Much as I enjoy the warmth here (especially this year) I could not take the high humidity that goes with the heat in some of those locations.

One final note, the predicted storm for Sunday is now on more or less the same track on all the global models, and that is about 300 miles off to the northwest of Donegal Bay but the system will have a very large circulation and its strongest winds appear likely to be just off the Irish coastline by late Sunday so any slight changes could be significant for wind gust potential (which might reach 110 km/hr in the open Atlantic). If you're wondering where it is now, or if it has any tropical characteristics, the storm is slowly forming to the south of Nova Scotia and north of Bermuda today, and is non-tropical, and will probably remain that way as it will be over waters only 18-20 deg C for the next two or three days. It is more similar to the typical autumn gales that we often find on similar tracks in late October or November, although not as strong as some of those. Some models have it deepening to about 975 mbs which is low for July but rather average for autumn.