Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 29 August, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: Full moon occurs this evening at 7:35 p.m., just before moonrise (and sunset) in Ireland.


TODAY ... Some dry intervals in the east this morning, but eventually widespread showers will develop with the risk of a thunderstorm, and highs of 15-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, some shallow fog patches likely inland, lows 5-8 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy with a few showers but also some brighter intervals, and highs 15-17 C.

MONDAY ... Cool and breezy (W-NW 40-60 km/hr) with passing showers, lows about 5-8 C and highs 13-16 C.

TUESDAY ... Little change although somewhat fewer showers in the mix, lows about 5-8 C and highs 13-16 C.

WEDNESDAY 2nd September to about SUNDAY 6th will bring some welcome dry weather for most, just a few isolated showers at times near northern coasts, and considerable sunshine especially for the south and east, but staying quite cool with overnight lows sometimes in the 0-3 C range (most places 3-6 C) bringing early ground frosts, and highs generally 12-15 C north, 15-17 C south. The latest guidance makes it likely that northerly breezes will be moderate at times with the high staying off to the west until quite late in the week.

This settled interval may turn a bit warmer eventually as light north to northeast winds become more southeasterly, and highs may reach 18-21 C. The spell will probably break down before mid-month with a return to cool, unsettled conditions likely.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Erika has been moving through the Dominican Republic and Haiti and now threatens Cuba, but heavy rainfalls are the main issue as wind gusts are only 80 km/hr. Guidance now shows Erika trying to maintain any sort of circulation after its interaction with Cuba, and possibly making a renewed run into the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. It may just dissipate and there is still a slight chance of a hurricane but only perhaps 10%.

My local weather started out with rain on Friday morning then became cloudy with highs near 21 C. More rain is expected from a subtropical frontal system heading in from the southwest. This may prevent the summer from breaking records but it means little given the long hot and dry spell already on the books. Various forest fires may be brought under control thanks to some of this rainfall if it gets far enough inland. West-central and eastern regions of the U.S. are generally on the warm side but only a degree or two above normal in most cases, a rather bland weather pattern in general.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 30 August, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A mixture of sunshine and cloudy intervals with just a few widely scattered showers although some of these may become briefly heavy and could produce thunder. However, many locations may remain dry and highs will be in the range of 15-18 C, with generally light winds.

TONIGHT ... Rather cloudy with one or two showers, lows about 7 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy and quite cool with a few showers developing, winds northwest 40-60 km/hr in exposed locations, highs 14-17 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be particularly cool days for time of year to welcome in the new month, and skies will range from partly cloudy to overcast in a northerly flow. Showers will be restricted to a few coastal locations. Moderate northerly breezes 30-50 km/hr. Morning lows 4-7 C, highs only 12 to 14 C north, 14 to 16 C south.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY may in fact just continue the same trend as low pressure forming east of Britain may hold back any full impact from higher pressures off to the west -- and this may also feed in a few showers into east coast counties, but there is some chance of longer sunny intervals in most other regions. Temperatures will remain similar, lows 3-7 C and highs around 12 to 15 C north, 15 to 18 C south.

While the future evolution is somewhat uncertain, the strong high off to the west should crest somewhere near Ulster or Scotland at some point around next weekend, which should lead to longer sunny intervals and even cooler nights in some rural areas with a risk of ground frost at least. Daytime highs could then be a few degrees higher in the range of 16 to 20 C.

Eventually, it appears likely that this blocking high will be pulled away into central Europe and the weather pattern will revert to the unsettled Atlantic-dominated southwest to west flow again.

The pattern for BRITAIN will be generally similar although a higher risk of showers or even periods of rain will enter the picture around Thursday when low pressure is expected to drift south across North Sea coastal regions. It will be very cool for the time of year and some record low daytime maximum temperatures are possible especially in eastern England.

Tropical Storm Erika lost its punch while trying to cross higher ground in Cuba, but a ghost circulation remains south of Florida and it could redevelop briefly in the Gulf of Mexico later today or Monday. Meanwhile, a new storm, currently Tropical Depression 6, has formed very close to the west African coast and may become Tropical Storm Fred later today or Monday near the southern Cape Verde Islands. Storms that form in this region have a reputation for going on to become major hurricanes so it's worth watching.

My local weather on Saturday was the main topic of discussion in this region, as a frontal wave developed very strong winds around mid-day, after some morning downpours. These winds gusted to 110 km/hr and brought down quite a few tree branches, leading to widespread power outages. It was rather warm at 22 C. The strong winds have ended but further showers may turn to steady rain overnight.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 31 August, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with just a few brief sunny intervals, one or two showers slowly expanding coverage from west to east and possibly becoming rather heavy in a few locations, but 3-7 mm on average. Highs 13-15 C north to about 16-18 C south and east. Light to moderate west to northwest winds developing by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Continued mostly cloudy, one or two light showers, and lows about 6 to 8 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be unseasonably cool days with a few light showers mostly in the north, and a few sunny intervals too, with moderate northerly breezes 30-50 km/hr. Highs each day about 13-15 C north and just 14-17 C south. Morning lows on Wednesday about 5-7 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are not likely to see much change but there could be a slight trend towards more sunshine and with clearer skies at night, even lower overnight lows. Showers will be generally quite isolated to northern coasts, and even there, rather slight. There could be some showers near the east coast at times, whether they move inland or stay over the Irish Sea remains somewhat in question. The moderate northerly flow could drop off to light winds by Friday. Highs generally 15-17 C but lows could drop as low as 2-6 C with ground frost possible.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK for 5-6 September ... with any luck the slow-moving high will crest over the north and this will lead to longer sunny intervals and somewhat warmer highs but continued bracing autumn-like overnight lows in the low single digits. This could change closer to the time, as slow-moving patterns can begin to drift in a different evolution and within five days those slight changes can add up to something more significant. Some themes that might emerge but are not the most likely outcomes would be (a) the high stays further west and a more cloudy northerly flow continues all weekend, or (b) the high weakens and more cloud and somewhat easterly flow bring partly cloudy skies. The chances seem fairly good though that the weekend will be mostly dry.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Eventually the high will be pulled into Europe (or less likely will split out to the west), either outcome will probably lead to a brief warmer interval early the following week but then a return to cool and unsettled westerly flow. This implies that Monday 7th or possibly Tuesday 8th could be a rather warm day (or days) near 20 C, but that later in the week highs will be back into the mid-teens.

For BRITAIN, this forthcoming two week period will also be quite cool but somewhat more unsettled in general as weak lows form in the northerly flow, largely missing Ireland but bringing more widespread showers or rain to eastern England at times, notably Thursday of this coming week.

Meanwhile, Fred has just become a cat-1 hurricane in the Cape Verde Islands, where it will continue to track west-northwest today and tonight. The future evolution of this storm is generally thought to be a long, slow decline in its intensity due to somewhat colder waters ahead in the central Atlantic, but there are some indications of redevelopment near Bermuda in about a week. This may have some bearing on how the high in the eastern Atlantic behaves by next weekend, although the track of Fred is most likely to continue northwest to north.

Meanwhile, my local weather was mostly cloudy with a few showers later in the day on Sunday, and highs near 20 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 1 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals (mostly south-central), and one or two showers which may develop somewhat more by afternoon with an isolated thundershower possible. Highs will be quite cool, only 13-15 C in the north and 15-17 C in the south, and a moderate northwest wind at times may sometimes make it feel cooler than that. On the other hand, if the sun comes out it may be more tolerable.

TONIGHT ... Rather cloudy, chilly with a few remnant showers, moderate northwest to north winds, lows 5-7 C although possibly a bit milder near the Atlantic coasts.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, isolated showers, moderate northerly winds and cool, highs 13-15 C north and 15-17 C south. Morning lows on Thursday about 4-6 C.

FRIDAY ... Little change, a mixture of cloud and sunshine, cool with the moderate northerly winds perhaps easing slightly, lows 3-6 C and highs near 14 C north and 17 C south.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, moderate north to northeast breezes, cool. Morning lows 2-5 C with isolated ground frost rural inland districts, and highs about 15 C north to 18 C south coast, 16-17 C east.

SUNDAY ... More frequent sunny intervals. Lows 1-4 C with scattered ground frost likely in rural areas, highs 15-18 C.

OUTLOOK ... There may be some slightly warmer days at the start of the following week, with highs perhaps reaching 20 or 21 C. Nights will become milder too. Then, rain appears likely to edge in from slow-moving fronts that will be accompanied by southeast to south winds and highs 15-17 C.

My local weather on Monday was quite wet and breezy -- we have had quite a change in conditions and the grass is slowly turning green finally, after about three days of intermittent but sometimes heavy rain. Monday's wind speeds were not extreme but a few weakened branches came down anyway. But the whole urban area here is still recovering from the widespread power outages and we were lucky where I reside not to lose our "hydro" as it's widely known over here.

Looking at the global picture, it's quite interesting how warm the North Pacific is, and how cold the North Atlantic at least in the temperate zones. This is an El Nino pattern on steroids, it would appear. So it's going to be a major challenge to come up with a winter forecast in many regions, as this is not just another garden variety El Nino. I have the hunch that stormy might be the theme for western Europe but it's going to be perhaps mid to late October before I finish my efforts to call this one. Currently trying to work out if there are in fact any useful analogues or if this is in some ways a "singularity" -- not that it necessarily means extreme weather, obviously not all regions will have extremes.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 2 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, isolated showers, moderate northwesterly winds sometimes reaching 30-50 km/hr, and cool, with highs only 13-15 C north and 15-17 C south.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, morning lows about 4-6 C except closer to 8 C near west and north coasts.

THURSDAY ... Little change although winds somewhat more northerly, which may allow longer sunny intervals in central and southern counties, still the risk of a few brief sprinkles of rain, with highs 13-15 C north, 15-17 C south.

FRIDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine, cool with the moderate northerly winds but easing to light over most counties away from the west and north coasts during the afternoon and evening, morning lows 3-6 C and highs near 14 C north and 17 C south. Slight risk of ground frost in a few rural locations inland south and central.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, moderate north to northeast breezes, cool. Morning lows 2-5 C with scattered ground frost rural inland districts, and highs about 15 C north to 18 C south coast, 16-17 C east.

SUNDAY ... More frequent sunny intervals. Lows -1 to +4 C with scattered and possibly widespread ground frost and isolated air frosts possible in rural areas, highs 15-18 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Although somewhat uncertain at this range, the most likely outcome is that a dry, seasonable pattern with moderate southeast breezes will develop with slowly increasing amounts of cloud by Tuesday. Highs both days could reach 18-21 C but nights will remain cool (3-7 C).

OUTLOOK ... If that dry spell breaks down, the next phase will probably be a few days of unsettled, cool or perhaps near average temperatures lasting several days, but there is some chance that the dry spell could hang on for a few extra days too or that the rain might be confined to the southwest for a while before the pattern shifts.

See previous forecasts for thoughts on Britain, North America, no big changes in outlook there -- my local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with a bit of light rain at times, and a rather cool high of 17 C. We're expecting a slow improvement now.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 3 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, winds northerly 20-40 km/hr, somewhat longer sunny intervals in central and southern counties, and still the risk of a few brief sprinkles of rain although few places would expect more than 1 mm, and highs 13-15 C north, 15-17 C south.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, cool, lows 4-7 C. Slight risk of ground frost in a few rural locations inland south and central.

FRIDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine, cool with the moderate northerly winds but easing to light over most counties away from the west and north coasts during the afternoon and evening, and highs near 14 C north and 17 C south.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, moderate north to northeast breezes, cool. Morning lows 2-5 C with scattered ground frost rural inland districts, and highs about 15 C north to 18 C south coast, 16-17 C east.

SUNDAY ... More frequent sunny intervals. Lows 0 to +4 C with scattered and possibly widespread ground frost and isolated air frosts possible in rural areas, highs 15-18 C.

MONDAY ... Risk of morning frost in low-lying rural areas, then sunny, light winds, morning lows -1 to +4 C and highs 14 to 19 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny with patchy morning frosts, fog patches, some increasing high cloud in west. Morning lows -1 to +4 C and highs 15 to 20 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, a little milder especially overnight, lows about 7 C and highs 16-21 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY (10th-11th) ... An interval of moderate southerly winds and rain or showers with temperatures steady 15-18 C then falling slightly.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and cool with temperatures in the mid-teens by day and 5-8 C at night.

This outlook will become similar for BRITAIN once today's fairly widespread light rain moves away tonight. The northerly winds will be stronger to about Sunday mid-day especially near the North Sea where some gusts to 70 or 80 km/hr are possible today and even tomorrow. Some very sharp frosts will develop in Scotland and some parts of northern England by later this weekend and early next week.

Meanwhile, across NORTH AMERICA, many regions remain quite hot with highs in the low to mid 30s. Further west, light rain at times will slowly give way to clearing skies as the fronts redevelop over the Canadian prairies where severe storms could develop later today. My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with periods of rain and just a few brief glimpses of the sun, with a high near 18 C. The grass has almost totally recovered from the long summer drought in many areas after this five-day onslaught of rain (and the windstorm but most of the damage from that is cleared away and power has been restored to almost all residents of the region now).

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 4 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and very cool, with a persistent northerly breeze of about 25-45 km/hr. Some patchy light drizzle in a few locations this morning, then an area of drizzle or light rain moving south into Ulster this afternoon, but tending to break up towards evening once into Leinster. Highs only 12-15 in the north and 13-16 C south.

TONIGHT ... Patchy remnants of the drizzle over some parts of Leinster will be followed by slight clearing and lows of 5-8 C.

SATURDAY ... Broken cloud during the morning may give way to longer sunny intervals by afternoon but it may remain at least partly cloudy in some parts of the north. Continued cool with highs 13-15 C north, 15-17 C south.

SUNDAY ... The slow clearing trend will continue with skies about one third cloudy by morning in many areas but also with some ground fog in some valleys. Colder overnight lows of 1-4 C, then with a mixture of sun and cloud during the day, highs 14-17 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will see the full effects of the clearing near the centre of high pressure which will be drifting across Ireland through these two days. Some very low overnight temperatures could result in central cold spots for Monday morning and eastern locations on Tuesday. Daytime temperatures should recover slightly with the longer sunny intervals or even some unbroken sunshine in places, to 17-19 C. Winds very light and variable will eventually become southeast 15-35 km/hr Tuesday afternoon but stronger southerly winds will arrive on the west coast.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will see a more unsettled pattern with the passage of a slow-moving frontal trough and associated 5-15 mm rainfalls. Temperatures will be much milder at night but similar in the daytime, with lows 10-13 C and highs 15-19 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for the risk of some heavier rainfall towards Sunday the 13th and a rather cool, unsettled westerly pattern mid-month. The GFS model shows Tropical Storm Fred refusing to die near the Azores and its remnants being swept up in the jet stream towards Ireland, but without much of a wind circulation this would just be a curiosity rather than a big weather event on the basis of the charts available. Fred has already degraded into a marginal tropical storm and is still five days away from this possible redevelopment which would only bring it back to its current strength after becoming a remnant low this weekend.

Meanwhile, my local weather on Thursday was mostly cloudy with the odd glimpse of blue sky, and it remained rather cool at 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 5 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloud will continue to break up allowing for longer sunny intervals at least away from the north which may remain mostly cloudy in the onshore northerly breezes (25-45 km/hr). Highs 13-15 C north to 15-17 C south.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals in south and some central counties, cloudy with a few breaks further north. Lows 2-6 C and some ground frost is possible in the inland south, except lows 5-8 C in some parts of Ulster and north Connacht.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, light northerly winds, probably more extensive cloudy intervals for Ulster though, highs 14-16 C north and 16-19 C south.

MONDAY ... Morning quite cold with some ground frost and fog patches in valleys, lows 0-5 C, daytime mostly sunny with light winds, a great day for climbing as temperatures will be fairly warm at higher elevations and visibility very good. Highs for most will be 16-20 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing high cloudiness for west, light southeast winds and sunshine for east, morning lows -1 to +4 C with frost in some eastern cold spots, highs 16-20 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some rain may brush outer coasts of Connacht, cloudy in parts of Ulster, Connacht and west Munster, partly sunny further east, moderate southerly winds. Lows 8-11 C and highs 17-19 C.

THURSDAY ... Still some chance of rain in west but partly cloudy for most in stronger southerly winds gusting to 70 km/hr, lows 10-13 C and highs 17-20C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY could see some heavier rain but this forecast remains quite sketchy this far out. Highs would be around 18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for temperatures to fall back to mid-teens in rather unsettled and cool cyclonic weather conditions.

Tropical Storm Fred has regained a bit of strength after being downgraded yesterday to tropical depression status. Fred seems to be drifting north towards the Azores and could meander around that region for days in various weak stages of development. There is less indication of its remnants getting into the main jet stream zone now but this may change again. Expect to hear about Tropical Storm Grace later this weekend to the southwest of Cape Verde Islands.

My local weather on Friday was (finally) sunny with cloudy intervals and a bit warmer at 20 C. We are going into the Labour Day weekend expecting two good days (Saturday, Monday) and one not so good showery day on Sunday.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 6 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Watch for a few dense fog patches near ponds and streams until the morning inversion breaks down about 0930h. Sunny with a few cloudy intervals, light northerly winds, probably more extensive cloudy intervals for Ulster though, highs 14-16 C north and 16-20 C south. Very good day for hiking into higher terrain in most if not all counties, as the air mass is fairly warm at even summit elevations (10-13 C) and winds only about 30 or 40 km/hr even there.

TONIGHT ... Clear in most locations, some patchy low cloud in parts of north and isolated dense fog patches after midnight in otherwise clear areas further south. Quite cold in lower lying valley locations, milder on hills and in large towns and cities. Lows will range from 1-4 C in colder locations, to 5-9 C in milder ones. There could be a few patches of ground frost in the inland south mostly outside built up areas.

MONDAY ... Morning quite cold with some ground frost and fog patches in valleys, lows 0-5 C, daytime mostly sunny with light winds, another fine day for climbing or hiking, as temperatures will be fairly warm at higher elevations and visibility very good, also nearly calm winds even on summits. Highs for most will be 16-20 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing high cloudiness for west, light southeast winds and sunshine for east, morning lows -1 to +4 C with frost in some eastern cold spots, but lows 5-9 C closer to Atlantic coast and in parts of west Ulster, then highs in almost all regions will reach 16-20 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some rain may brush outer coasts of Connacht, perhaps 5 mm in places like Newport and Belmullet, otherwise dry in most places, although cloudy in parts of Ulster, Connacht and west Munster, partly sunny further east, moderate southerly winds. Lows 8-11 C and highs 17-20 C.

THURSDAY ... Still some chance of rain in west but partly cloudy for most in stronger southerly winds gusting to 70 km/hr, lows 10-13 C and highs 17-21C.

FRIDAY to about MONDAY 14th could see some heavier rain at times and also some gusty southerly winds, total rainfall from current guidance might be in the 20-50 mm range, breaking the dry spell for most, but this forecast remains a bit inconclusive this far out. Highs would be around 18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for temperatures to fall back to mid-teens in rather unsettled and cool cyclonic weather conditions.

To be honest, the models are not really capable of giving very reliable guidance on the evolution of either Fred or newly formed Grace. Fred looks like "he" wants to push north then northeast, but these Azores type weak tropical systems are often easy to stall and push all over the subtropical eastern Atlantic unless they can get past 40 deg N. Grace will likely make a run towards Puerto Rico or Hispaniola but may not hold together quite that long before weakening below its predicted maximum intensity of 120 km/hr around Monday night. This is, however, a track that could produce a Gulf stream hurricane if everything came together well in about a week. Besides its historical significance, 11th of September is also the statistical peak of the Atlantic tropical storm season.

My local weather was rather similar to your own on Saturday -- it was overcast at first light, quickly cleared up (about 0800h) then became partly cloudy later, with a high of 19 C after a morning low of about 7 C which felt quite cold after such a long hot summer here.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 7 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Extensive morning cloud may break up in some places during the late morning to produce a sunny afternoon, but expect some cloud to remain in place as the inversion is fairly strong. Highs will range from 14 C under persistent cloud to 18-20 C where sunshine prevails.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals developing, mostly in east-central counties, where it could become quite cold as a result. Lows in any clear areas 0-4 C but otherwise 5-9 C for most.

TUESDAY ... Increasing high cloudiness for west, light southeast winds and sunshine for east, highs in almost all regions will reach 16-20 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some rain may brush outer coasts of Connacht, perhaps 5 mm in places like Newport and Belmullet, otherwise dry in most places, although cloudy in parts of Ulster, Connacht and west Munster, partly sunny further east, moderate southerly winds. Lows 8-11 C and highs 17-20 C.

THURSDAY ... Still some chance of rain in west but partly cloudy for most in stronger southerly winds gusting to 70 km/hr, lows 10-13 C and highs 17-21C.

FRIDAY to about MONDAY 14th could see some heavier rain at times and also some gusty southerly winds, total rainfall from current guidance might be in the 20-50 mm range, breaking the dry spell for most, but this forecast remains a bit inconclusive this far out. Highs would be around 18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for temperatures to fall back to mid-teens in rather unsettled and cool cyclonic weather conditions. However, this may once again give way to more settled weather by about the 20th.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy with brief light showers around mid-day, and the high was about 18 C. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are pushing through the Great Lakes region but it will remain hot and dry near the east coast. Fred is dead in the water for the time being, and Grace continues to push gradually west towards the Leeward Islands. A weak tropical looking system may be forming in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and it will gradually circle around to the west by later today or tonight, bringing locally heavy rainfalls to the Florida coast. No strong winds are likely with this.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 8 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Watch for a few dense fog patches in parts of central Leinster where skies have cleared, it's much colder there than in most other parts of the country, and so the air can easily saturate over small bodies of water. That widespread cloud elsewhere is probably going to begin to break up slowly as winds stir from the southeast, but there may be alternating periods of sun and cloud at best in some places. Highs will depend on the sunshine and could reach about 18 or 19 C in parts of the inland west or even the west coast given the wind direction, meanwhile, it may be about 16 C near east and south coasts.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, but the low cloud may return for a time, and winds will remain moderate southeasterly, keeping temperatures around 10 or 11 C for most.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be fairly similar days with considerable cloud, a somewhat warmer southerly wind, and small areas of rain skirting the outer west coast mainly north of Clifden, if they reach land at all. Therefore, staying dry in almost all other areas apart from perhaps a brief patchy drizzle event in parts of Ulster. Southerly winds will increase to about 40-60 km/hr and highs both days will range from 16 to 19 C with the morning low on Thursday about 10 to 12 C.

FRIDAY will become wetter by afternoon and evening in the western counties but this rain may be slow to extend further east, where it could remain dry with partly to mostly cloudy skies and gusty southerly winds. Lows near 13 C and highs near 17 C. Rainfalls in the west about 5-10 mm.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK calls for a period of stronger winds and showers as deep low pressure skirts by the Mayo and Donegal coasts bringing almost gale force southwest winds at times (50-90 km/hr) and further rainfalls of 15-20 mm but this time hitting most regions at some point, but not without a few dry intervals too. Temperatures on the weekend appear likely to remain in a narrow range between 12 and 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for this unsettled period to evolve into more of a drizzly light rain under a low pressure regime that could become rather slow-moving, and temperatures could be held down to around 14 C which is several degrees below normal for mid-September although the nights won't be that much cooler than the days. Remnants of the former Tropical Storm Fred could be involved in some of this wet weather as that moisture has now been captured by a developing slow-moving frontal zone extending from the Azores to Iceland. Enjoy any warmth that comes along this week because it may be a rather chilly second half of September ahead.

Most of the above applies to Britain but with the slow pace of weather systems at present, the onset of the later rainfall may be delayed into the weekend for parts of England, although in places they may see isolated showers that move up from France. Temperatures will not be much different but could touch perhaps 23 C in a few spots mid-week.

Across North America, most regions remain on the warm side of normal, especially the eastern half of the continent now. Boston had its warmest day of the year (by one degree) on Monday (Labor Day) at 93 F or 34 C. It only happens about once out of twenty years that September provides the hottest day of the year in various parts of North America. Given that the sun is barely higher than late March, it's quite a rare event. My local weather meanwhile was cloudy with a few sunny breaks and it was a bit warmer at 21 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 9 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, after a somewhat misty start over most inland locations, and rain will hold off just to the west of the Atlantic coasts, so largely dry with moderate southeast to south winds increasing later to 40-60 km/hr and highs 17-20 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly to mostly cloudy, mist or fog patches developing, lows about 11-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, rain gradually moving ashore in west but making little progress inland. Winds south-southeast 50-70 km/hr. Highs 17-20 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain may become heavy at times with potential for about 20-30 mm, moderate south winds falling off to light and turning northerly on Atlantic coasts by late in the day. Lows 12-14 C and highs 15-17 C, in fact temperatures very close to steady in western counties and falling off slightly there with the windshift.

SATURDAY ... Rain continuing for a while, then cloudy with a few breaks by late afternoon or evening, 10-15 mm further rainfalls and lows 10-12 C, highs about 15-16 C.

SUNDAY ... Another low will arrive from the south with more rain, 10-20 mm likely, lows 9-11 C and highs 14-16 C.

MONDAY ... Overcast, intermittent rain, lows 10-12 C and highs 14-16 C.

TUESDAY ... Becoming windy with rain or showers, temperatures steady about 13 or 14 C. Winds becoming strong westerly 50-80 km/hr.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This parade of low pressure systems could continue for a few more days, some guidance suggests a return to settled conditions but that may fade out of the picture if the Atlantic gets into an active mode, and temperatures are likely to remain quite close to average much of the time but with potential for some rather low maximum values on a few days.

Meanwhile, my local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with morning light rain or drizzle and a few brighter intervals by afternoon, with a high near 20 C. Both New York (Central Park) and Boston had their hottest day of 2015 yesterday, at 36 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 10 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for heavy rainfalls tonight and Friday spreading slowly east across the country, ending Saturday morning or mid-day in Leinster. Most places will have about 12-18 hours of rainfall and totals could reach 30-40 mm producing spot flooding on roads (rivers and streams are running fairly low after the prolonged dry spell but there again some could eventually reach bankfull conditions. High tides although without major storm surges could become a factor on the south coast by later Friday when the tides meet the runoff from various sources.

TODAY ... Partly cloudy with some pleasant sunny intervals for eastern counties mainly, then by evening, some bands of moderate rain gradually moving ashore in west but making slow progress inland. Winds south-southeast increasing later to 50-70 km/hr. Highs 17-20 C.

TONIGHT and FRIDAY ... Periods of rain may become heavy at times (tonight only in western counties, Friday further east) with potential for about 20-40 mm, spot flooding possible especially for inland south and Cork city, moderate south winds falling off to light and turning northerly on Atlantic coasts by late in the day. Morning lows 12-14 C and highs 15-17 C, in fact temperatures very close to steady in western counties and falling off slightly there with the windshift.

SATURDAY ... Rain continuing for a while, ending fairly early for most of the west and south, but continued heavy in Dublin, north Leinster and east Ulster, then cloudy with a few breaks by late afternoon or evening, 10-25 mm further rainfalls with risk of spot flooding in the eastern counties, with morning lows 10-12 C, afternoon highs about 15-16 C.

SUNDAY ... It could start out dry with brief sunny breaks in the morning, but another low will arrive from the south with more rain by afternoon or evening especially in Munster and south Leinster, 10-20 mm likely, lows 9-11 C and highs 14-16 C. Moderate south winds backing to southeast 40-60 km/hr by the overnight hours.

MONDAY ... Overcast, intermittent rain, lows 10-12 C and highs 14-16 C. Moderate southeast winds, some fog possible. 5-15 mm rainfalls.

TUESDAY ... Becoming windy with rain or showers, temperatures steady about 13 or 14 C. Winds may become strong westerly 50-80 km/hr for a time but further disturbances will then develop causing the winds to back into the south or southeast by late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

MIDWEEK ... While somewhat uncertain, a slow moving final disturbance in the chain may bring sporadic light rain and overcast skies with rather cool temperatures near 12 or 13 C. This system could be a more significant storm if it pulls in remnants of newly formed "Henri" which will likely be absorbed into the jet stream and the frontal waves under discussion here at some point around Monday near Newfoundland. Too soon to be very specific about this as Henri just began its life cycle near Bermuda yesterday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Once that final low clears northeast on Thursday, it could improve considerably for a few days with a return to warmer settled weather possible, although the pattern recently has been for that sort of long-range outlook to fade or suffer delays.

My local weather on Wednesday was very pleasant, sunny and warm with the high near 23 C. Clear and cool outside now, about 8 C at midnight Pacific time which means it is time to post this.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATED ALERT _ Thursday 10 September 2015 _ 6:30 p.m.
______________________________________________

As posted on the forum, I was going to post (in this case maintain) a LEVEL 1 alert but numerical guidance from several global models are indicating potential for 50 or even 60 mm rainfalls between Friday early morning and Saturday mid-day (so this is being upgraded to a LEVEL 2 alert, at least for some regions as explained). Despite the recent run of dry weather, that could be enough rain to produce considerable flooding in low-lying and poorly drained areas and especially on roadways. (note also, caution to drivers, because rain will be falling on roads that have not seen rainfall for almost two weeks, the oil residue problem must be factored into your traction as the rain begins, it can be very slick on the roads until rain washes that residue into the ditches or drains).

The cause of this heavy rainfall is a very slow moving low pressure trough oriented NNW-SSE already making landfall in west Munster then coastal Mayo this evening. Numerical weather prediction is of course not a perfect science but be forewarned, the GFS model indicates 40-60 mm rainfalls possible in parts of central and southeast Connacht and western to central Munster, and amounts of 30-50 mm in most other counties. The GEM model has output that I recognize as top end for their model, whatever their objective number crunch shows, the intensity alone has me concerned given the very slow pace of this system.

It will rain steadily and sometimes very heavily (thundery bursts are possible) for at least 12 to 18 hours once the rain begins in any one location and possibly for 24 hours straight. So the flood potential comes more from that duration than any one hour or two within the system. I am expecting to see reports of 7-12 mm an hour rainfalls and perhaps several consecutive ones.

While almost anywhere in the road network and in towns and cities (in favoured locations) could see flooding at some point, I think that Cork and possibly some towns in Roscommon, east Galway and southeast Mayo would be somewhat more likely to see serious urban flooding problems (underpasses filling up with 3-5 feet of water not out of the question, for example). There won't be much wind as this low is rather weak in terms of pressure gradient, but with new moon approaching on the 13th, tides will be increasing and this could interact with the runoff near the south coast to exacerbate flooding problems.

Will end this thread after a discussion with a map showing actual total rainfalls including those of Boards members, be sure to post some totals (Friday-Saturday) if you can in either this thread or the observations thread.

As this is likely to come up, expect the rain to end Friday night in many places but mid-day Saturday in Dublin-Kildare and Saturday afternoon north of there. The system will tend to "pivot" during Friday night which is why southeast Connacht and far west Leinster would be perhaps subject to higher totals. The smallest totals might be expected in northwest Donegal and southeast Wexford perhaps (25 mm might be the minimum).

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 11 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT maintained for very heavy rainfalls, already underway in west, spreading gradually to most other regions by late afternoon or evening, then continuing on Saturday in much of central and northern Leinster and east Ulster. Total rainfalls 40-70 mm with heaviest amounts over higher parts of inland west, and considerable flooding potential especially in low-lying urban areas and near small streams draining higher terrain. ADVANCE ALERT for a second round of moderate to heavy rain in parts of Munster and Connacht on Sunday into early Monday, 20-40 mm potential with this.

TODAY ... Overcast, dry at first in Leinster and Ulster but intervals of light rain developing mid-day and heavier rain by evening. Moderate southeast winds and highs 14-17 C. Further west, rain will be moderate or heavy at times, with risk of thundery downpours. Total rainfalls by evening 30-60 mm west, 10 mm east. Watch for possible spot flooding and stream overflows, even a few mudslides near hills in western regions. Rain becoming lighter in some parts of coastal west Munster by evening with a gradual windshift to northerly. Highs in west about 14 C.

TONIGHT and SATURDAY ... Heavy rain continuing in central counties and spreading to eastern counties, overnight rainfalls 20-40 mm, gradual clearing near west and southwest coasts. Lows 11-13 C east, 8-10 C west. Further rainfalls of 10-20 mm during the day in eastern counties although some gradual clearing in southeast. West and southwest becoming partly cloudy during Saturday mid-day and afternoon. Highs generally cool, 13-15 C. Flood risk will spread east but in general will become somewhat less severe as the system slowly loses its considerable moisture load.

SUNDAY ... Overnight foggy intervals, lows 6-9 C. Some bright spells early, then rain spreading slowly north, heavier in Munster and Connacht, with potential for 20-40 mm by early Monday morning. Highs on Sunday will be about 16 C in most regions.

MONDAY ... Rain tapering off to showers or drizzle, foggy at times, moderate northwest winds developing. Lows 8-10 C and highs 12-15 C.

TUESDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, becoming quite windy by afternoon from west to northwest. Lows 8-10 C and highs 12-15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Further showers mid-week but a slow drying trend, warmer by Friday and Saturday, then risk of more rain developing around Sunday-Monday 20th-21st. Last week of September looking cooler again and unsettled.

This heavy rainfall forecast will extend to a few parts of Scotland by late Saturday but most of Britain will escape with 10-20 mm later Saturday after a mainly dry and mild day today. The general trend will be somewhat drier but broadly similar to the above next week.

In North America, the heat wave has ended on the east coast with heavy rain at times on Thursday. Meanwhile, the far west has returned to the summer dominant pattern, hot and dry. It was sunny and 25 C here on Thursday and the forecast high for today is 30 C. This is not expected to last much longer than the weekend though.

Tropical Storm Henri is rather weak and heading for southeast Newfoundland. It may be in a dying phase heading towards southwest Munster mid-week but probably disappearing from the equation somewhere before landfall becomes possible.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 12 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, some additional rain for north Leinster, Ulster, and a few isolated showers elsewhere. Further rainfalls only 5-10 mm at most. There could be a few afternoon sunny breaks in Munster. Winds westerly 40-60 km/hr with a few higher gusts, except for light southerly winds in parts of north Leinster and east Ulster this morning. Winds easing and backing to southerly late afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, some fog and drizzle, lows 7-9 C. Note, new moon around sunrise at 07:41 Sunday.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy, humid, occasional light rain developing, somewhat heavier at times in south. About 10-15 mm by midnight, highs 14-16 C. Moderate southeast winds backing to east 30-50 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Rain becoming heavy at times in parts of the west, especially west Galway and Mayo, where 30-50 mm could fall, leading to renewed flooding. A few other areas such as Waterford and Kerry might see 15-25 mm, but many other locations just 5-15 mm. Winds backing to northeast and then into north or northwest late in the day near Atlantic coasts, generally 40-70 km/hr. Temperatures steady around 13 or 14 C.

TUESDAY ... Cool and windy, mostly cloudy with sunny breaks, passing showers although steadier light rain in parts of Ulster, in blustery west to northwest winds. Lows 7-9 C and highs 13-15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Remnants of Henri are now expected to develop into a fairly vigorous storm tracking into the Irish Sea from the southwest. This track may shift in later forecasts, so for now we will just say rather windy with periods of rain and temperatures near 14 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy, showers, cool. Highs near 13 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Turning a little warmer and possibly settled for a day or two, before more unsettled and near normal temperatures.

The general picture for Britain is a bit different. Today, some heavy rain will move up into southeast England from France. The heavier rains for Ireland on Sunday and Monday will largely miss most of Britain although it will be mostly cloudy with isolated outbreaks of light rain. The track of the mid-week storm may bring considerably warmer air into Britain briefly.

My local weather on Friday was sunny and hot with a high close to 30 C. This is expected to last through part or all of the weekend but cooler weather will then arrive here around Monday.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 13 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for heavy rainfalls in western and southeastern counties, 30-50 mm by Monday afternoon, and higher totals possible on higher ground again, renewed flooding concerns in similar areas ... only 10-30 mm likely elsewhere.

TODAY ... Except for a few morning sunny intervals in north-central counties, mostly cloudy, humid, occasional light rain developing, becoming somewhat heavier at times in south. About 10-15 mm by midnight, except 15-30 mm in west Munster, and highs 14-16 C. Moderate southeast winds backing to east 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT and MONDAY ... Rain becoming heavy at times in parts of the west, especially Kerry, west Cork, west Galway and Mayo, where a further 20-40 mm could fall, leading to renewed flooding. A few other areas such as Waterford, Carlow, Kilkenny and Wexford might see 15-25 mm, but many other locations just 5-15 mm. Winds backing to northeast and then into north or northwest late in the day near Atlantic coasts, generally 40-70 km/hr. Temperatures overnight into Monday steady around 12 to 14 C.

TUESDAY ... Cool and windy, mostly cloudy with sunny breaks, passing showers (1-3 mm) although steadier light rain in parts of Ulster (3-7 mm), in blustery west to northwest winds 40-70 km/hr. Lows 7-9 C and highs 13-15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Remnants of Henri are now expected to develop into a fairly vigorous storm tracking into Britain from the southwest. This track has shifted east somewhat and could shift again in later forecasts, but for now, expect some rain in southeast, cloudy elsewhere except for some sunny breaks in parts of Connacht and west Ulster, and brisk northeast winds 50-80 km/hr, lows 4-7 C and highs only 11-14 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy (NW 40-70 km/hr), showers, cool. Lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, winds becoming SW 30-50 km/hr, morning lows -1 to +4 C and highs 14-17 C.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain likely in west later afternoon or evening, strong south to southwest winds. Lows 10-12 C and highs 15-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy with occasional showery rainfalls (5-10 mm), lows 10-12 C and highs 14-17 C.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny, hazy and very warm with a high of 27 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 14 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for continued heavy rainfalls in central and east Munster, south Leinster (20-40 mm). Expect widespread flooding, possibly severe around Killarney, Kenmare and Macroom, from 50 mm rainfalls overnight in west Kerry and west Cork.

TODAY ... Rain moving east across much of the south, including central and east Munster, south Leinster, where a further 20-40 mm could fall, leading to spot flooding. Parts of Connacht will see a further 10-30 mm, north Leinster and southwest Ulster 5-15 mm, but parts of east Ulster only 1-3 mm at most. Winds backing to north or northwest during the morning in Kerry and mid-day further north near Atlantic coasts, at 40-70 km/hr. Light to moderate northeast winds 20-40 km/hr in most of the eastern two thirds of the country until a wind shift (and increase) to northwest late afternoon or evening. Temperatures steady around 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT ... A few residual showers or periods of light rain, moderate west to northwest winds 40-60 km/hr, lows 7-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Cool and windy, mostly cloudy with sunny breaks, passing showers (1-3 mm) although steadier light rain in parts of Ulster (3-7 mm), in blustery west to northwest winds 40-70 km/hr, and highs 13-15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Remnants of Henri will create some rain in the southeast but most of this may remain offshore (heavier rain in parts of Britain), cloudy elsewhere except for some sunny breaks in parts of Connacht and west Ulster, and brisk northeast to north winds 40-60 km/hr, except light westerly for west Ulster and adjacent north Connacht. Lows 4-7 C and highs only 11-14 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy (NW 40-70 km/hr), showers, cool. Lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, winds becoming SW 30-50 km/hr, morning lows -1 to +4 C and highs 14-17 C.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain likely in west later afternoon or evening, strong south to southwest winds. Lows 10-12 C and highs 15-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy with occasional showery rainfalls (5-10 mm), lows 10-12 C and highs 14-17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Gradual improvement is possible (as usual, we are not certain that high pressure can settle very long given the ocean temperature situation). If the model guidance proves correct, there could be several dry days towards the end of the following week, night fog and frost, and reasonably warm days (16-19 C).

My local weather on Sunday started out sunny, became overcast and quite breezy from the west, with considerably cooler temperatures near 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 15 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy, a few widely separated showers may develop but amounts will be slight (1-3 mm at the most). Winds northwest 30-50 km/hr and rather cool for mid-September, highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, a few clear intervals, lows 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, moderate northeast winds developing across south Leinster and parts of east Munster, rain should stay just offshore but a few stray showers could reach Irish Sea coasts, meanwhile some parts of west Munster, central counties and east Ulster will have longer sunny intervals and the northwest will be prone to brief showers moving inland from the west. The wind field will be slack across these regions except for some light westerly breezes near Donegal Bay. Highs 15-17 C.

THURSDAY ... Some clear intervals early morning, then increasing cloud in the daytime with afternoon showers developing. Moderate west to northwest breezes and cool, morning lows 5-7 C and afternoon highs 13-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, just a few isolated showers, lows 5-8 C and highs 13-16 C.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, winds from south freshening to 40-60 km/hr by afternoon and evening, with rain likely in west by late afternoon or evening, lows 3-7 C and highs 14-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Showers or periods of rain developing, heavy in a few places inland southeast by afternoon, while gradually clearing late afternoon or evening in Connacht and west Munster. Winds SSW veering WSW 40-70 km/hr and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud each day, isolated showers, cool. Highs 13-16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There is some chance of a more settled interval later in the week, but at this range confidence is only moderate in this outcome. If so, the highs would be 15-18 C and nights rather close to frost levels. There are two features on some maps that have me concerned about this, one is a tendency for this high to be pulled west after a while opening the gates for a very cold northerly air flow, and the other possibility being a general failure of this high to build up much so that it remains cloudy for the most part.

Over in BRITAIN, the current track of the Wednesday low (remnants of Henri basically) indicate widespread rain and stronger northeast winds (a brief spell of warmer southerlies in the southeast), 20-30 mm rain potential, and wind gusts to 80 km/hr. Beyond that difference, the forecasts for Britain will converge on those for Ireland except for a timing difference of less than half a day (later for Britain in the generally west to southwest flow).

My local weather on Monday was rather featureless with a lot of cloud but with the sun dimly visible at times. There were some isolated thundershowers around the area but not too close to my location. It was rather cool with a high of only 16 C. It looks like summer is over now after our last hurrah on the weekend, but it has warmed up again in eastern parts of North America with highs back into the high 20s and low 30s. Two rather weak tropical systems are trying to develop into named storms in the central equatorial Atlantic but neither one of them looks like a sure-fire candidate for getting the next name (which will be Ida, after which possibly Joaquin and Kate). Also in the running is a low in the western Gulf of Mexico. But in general it remains a rather quiet tropical season for the North Atlantic.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 16 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A few morning fog patches inland, then a mixture of cloudy and sunny intervals, with moderate north-northeasterly winds developing across south Leinster and parts of east Munster, which will be cloudier from the low approaching Britain, and while rain should stay just offshore, a few stray showers could reach coastal fringes; also, the northwest will be prone to brief showers moving inland from the west. The wind field will be slack across central and northern regions. Highs 15-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear with some cloudy intervals and fog or mist patches developing, cold with lows 2-6 C.

THURSDAY ... Some clear intervals early morning, then increasing cloud in the daytime with afternoon showers developing. A few places may see 2-5 mm but quite a few locations could remain dry. Moderate west to northwest breezes and cool, and afternoon highs 13-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Scattered ground frost possible, then sunny intervals, just a few isolated showers, lows 2-6 C and highs 13-16 C.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, winds from south freshening to 40-60 km/hr by afternoon and evening, with rain likely in west by late afternoon or evening, lows 2-6 C and highs 14-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Showers or periods of rain developing, heavy in a few places inland southwest by afternoon, and the rain slowly advancing across the country, timing a bit uncertain for eastern counties which might stay dry until mid-afternoon with any luck. Winds SSW veering WSW 40-70 km/hr and highs near 16 C in the west and north, but the longer it stays dry in the east, the closer to 18 C for a high. About 10-15 mm rainfall but 20-30 mm possible in west Munster.

MONDAY and TUESDAY ... Variable cloud each day, isolated showers, cool. Highs 13-16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Cool but dry, possible frosts and dense fog patches at night and lingering into mid-morning in some places, hazy sunshine likely most days from Wednesday on, this settled autumnal spell could last several days and feature some warmer days eventually although remaining cold under clear skies at night if it does warm up for the daytime hours. The current GFS forecast model run shows this settled spell with a brief minor interruption but then returning later in the month and into the first few days of October.It would be welcome after all the rain.

Today, BRITAIN will be dealing with remnants of T.S. Henri which is currently just passing Brittany and heading into the Channel. Heavy rainfalls of 20-40 mm and wind gusts to 80 km/hr from the east to northeast will make this an unpleasant day although it's not quite a major storm. Once it has reached the North Sea tonight and Thursday, the pattern will rapidly become more similar to the forecast scenario above, except that the Sunday rain won't arrive in most of Britain until overnight and early Monday.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with a few sunny intervals. Some rain was noted around the region but all of it missed my location. It was very cool too, about 15 C mid-day.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 17 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, a few showers developing mostly in western counties, generally small amounts of rain (2-4 mm west, 0-2 mm east) but one or two isolated heavier showers possible. Moderate westerly winds, cool with highs only 13-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals as showers die out, mist patches likely before morning, and lows 2-6 C with scattered ground frost.

FRIDAY ... More sunshine in the mix of cloud and sun, and fewer showers, in fact most places will likely remain dry, in moderate northwest winds. Highs still quite cool at 13-16 C.

SATURDAY ... Scattered morning frost with lows 1-5 C, then sunny with increasing high cloud west to central counties by late in the day, light winds much of the day except for some moderate southerly breezes near the Atlantic coasts. Highs 15-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain will arrive in the early to mid-morning hours in the west and will spread east rather gradually, so it could remain dry in Dublin and parts of Leinster until late afternoon or evening. Eventually most places will see perhaps 5-15 mm of rain lasting into Monday morning in the east. Winds will increase to SSW 40-70 km/hr. Lows 7-10 C and highs 16-19 C.

MONDAY ... Cool and breezy, mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks, lows near 3 C and highs near 14 C, and a few showers in a westerly flow.

OUTLOOK ... There will be a few isolated showers most days but longer sunny intervals too, as higher pressure attempts to build in. Model solutions vary but there appears to be some risk of a wet interval around Thursday before stronger high pressure begins to build up towards the end of the month. That could produce the classic autumn pattern of foggy nights with scattered frost, light winds and hazy sun in the daytime hours. Highs during this spell might manage to creep up towards 19 or 20 C.

My local weather on Wednesday was mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and somewhat warmer at 20 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 18 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks, just a few very isolated and brief showers with most places dry, cool with moderate northwest winds at times, highs 13-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clearing will allow mist or fog patches to develop, lows generally about 5-7 C but a few spots could fall closer to ground frost levels.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, light winds, generally a nice day with highs about 16 to 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Dry to start in eastern half, rain at times in west, and that will move rather slowly east to reach Dublin and east coast just about 5 or 6 p.m. on current indications, rainfalls 5-10 mm in most areas after several hours of intermittent showers, once the rain arrives. Moderate southerly winds ahead of the rain will fall off to rather light westerlies by evening. Lows 7-10 C then highs 16-18 C.

MONDAY ... Some heavier bursts of rain during the early morning in Connacht and west Ulster, otherwise a few showers, cool and breezy, lows 5-8 C and highs 13-16 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with cool temperatures and an occasional shower, highs both days 12-16 C.

THURSDAY appears likely to become wet for a time, 10-15 mm rainfall potential, highs near 15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for longer dry spells but with some risk of rain at times in the south as high pressure well to the north interacts with low pressure near the French coast in generally easterly to northeasterly winds. There may be a settled spell for parts of the north but the chances seem to be fading for the south. Temperatures would likely be rather close to average values in the mid-teens daytime and lower single digits at night with isolated frost in the north.

My local weather on Thursday was mostly cloudy with some morning drizzle (I would say we had the rarely seen heavy drizzle at one point), highs near 18C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 19 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Morning cloudy intervals and mist may persist in some parts of Munster and Connacht but sunny breaks will become more frequent elsewhere, a generally dry day and highs 15-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain developing across western counties (5-8 mm), increasing cloud for eastern counties but remaining dry, lows 8-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain will advance slowly east, likely to arrive on the east coast by about 4 to 6 p.m., where it will last most of the overnight hours while gradual clearing develops in the west. Moderate southerly winds will become light westerly during the latter portions of the rainfall event and 10-15 mm can be expected in most locations. Highs 16-18 C.

MONDAY ... Some heavier bursts of rain during the early morning in Connacht and west Ulster, otherwise a few showers, cool and breezy, lows 5-8 C and highs 13-16 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with cool temperatures and an occasional shower, highs both days 12-16 C.

THURSDAY appears likely to become wet for a time, 10-15 mm rainfall potential, highs near 15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some improvement towards next weekend, highs continuing about 15-17 C, then another frontal rainfall event likely after the weekend (around Monday 28th), then some chance of more settled conditions and warmer days although cool or cold nights due to the clearer skies (except for some dense fog in rural areas).

Tropical storm Ida has formed in the equatorial Atlantic, but is not yet expected to move near land within the next week while drifting slowly northwest and possibly beginning to meander east of the Leeward Islands next week.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with drizzle at times, not much accumulation, and it was rather misty, with highs near 17 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 20 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain already covering western counties will gradually move east, estimated time of arrival on the east coast around 3-5 p.m., and amounts of about 10-15 mm will be typical. Moderate southerly winds 40-60 km/hr and highs 16-18 C. Gradual clearing this evening in western counties.

TONIGHT ... Further showery bursts of rain in Leinster and brief showers elsewhere, but a slow clearing trend developing towards morning, leading to widespread fog or mist, lows 7-9 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy with showers developing, some of these possibly heavy with thunder or hail. Cooler with highs 13-15 C. Moderate westerly winds at times.

TUESDAY ... Breezy and cool, just a few isolated showers and a partial clearing trend afternoon and evening, in moderate northwest winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows 5-7 C and highs 13-16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, some light rain developing mostly in western counties by late in the day. Lows 2-5 C and highs 14-17 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue unsettled with frequent showers, about 5 to 10 mm rainfalls, and highs each day near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... The weekend may see a brief improvement, then more rain is due around Monday. Models continue to show higher pressure building near the end of the month and the possibility of a few settled days with somewhat warmer temperatures in the daytime hours.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast, humid and wet with non-stop light rain or drizzle, probably about 20 mm in total, and highs near 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 21 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy with showers developing, some of these possibly heavy with thunder or hail. Cooler with highs 13-15 C. Moderate westerly winds at times 30-50 km/hr. Average rainfalls about 3-5 mm.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals, showers becoming isolated then ending after midnight. Lows 4-7 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy and cool, just a few isolated showers and a partial clearing trend afternoon and evening, in moderate northwest winds 40-60 km/hr with highs 13-16 C. Most places dry, rainfalls trace to 2 mm where they do occur.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, some light rain developing mostly in western counties by late in the day. Lows 2-5 C and highs 14-17 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue unsettled with frequent showers, about 5 to 10 mm rainfalls, and highs each day near 15 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, a little warmer again, highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Periods of rain heavy at times in western counties, highs near 17.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There continue to be some optimistic signs of a more settled period, but one source brings in low pressure towards the south as winds back around to the east. The easterly component does seem to be the most probable outcome so will estimate about a 60% chance of some dry weather to start October, and this could become slightly warmer than average for a change (17-19 C at that point), although foggy and cool at night.

Today, BRITAIN will be dealing with the rainfall that moved through Ireland yesterday and overnight, with 10-20 mm amounts in parts of northern England and southern Scotland. From then on, it will become fairly similar to the above forecast scenario with Tuesday hanging onto some scattered showers, Wednesday largely dry, and then showery towards the end of the week. Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal values.

My local weather on Sunday was quite windy at times with bursts of showery rain, apparently quite heavy north of here as flooding and mudslides have closed some roads, but only about 10 mm fell here, with a high of about 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 22 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, isolated showers near Atlantic coasts, in moderate west to northwest winds 40-60 km/hr. Cool with highs about 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, except for increasing cloud near Atlantic coasts. Lows 4-7 C, possibly lower inland southeast, but temperatures rising towards morning in west.

WEDNESDAY ... A slow-moving band of rain will spread into Connacht and parts of west Munster bringing 5-10 mm there, but will tend to fragment as it reaches the east coast by evening. Otherwise, much of the day will be dry in the east and south with any morning sunshine fading behind thickening cloud. Highs 14-16 C in moderate southwest breezes.

THURSDAY ... Bright and breezy with showers developing, one or two may become thundery. Moderate westerly winds, morning lows 5-8 C and afternoon highs 13-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, just a few isolated showers, highs near 16 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Saturday appears likely to be a fair day with some sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures reaching 17 or possibly 18 C in southerly breezes. This trend may continue in most regions on Sunday with some chance of rain near the west coast at least by afternoon or evening, although here again it could stay just offshore.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... While Monday 28th may be similar to the weekend as the rain continues to linger near the west coast, eventually most guidance is showing this brief fine spell being replaced by further rain and wind from a parade of Atlantic fronts that may pick up whatever develops out of Ida, now a tropical storm east of Puerto Rico, but on some models a future hurricane moving past Bermuda and into the westerlies around a week to ten days from now. This bears watching although some of the guidance shows the storm being pushed well south of Ireland and hitting Portugal or northwest Spain.

Meanwhile, my local weather on Monday was pleasant and sunny with the high about 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 23 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A few morning sunny intervals in east and south, mostly overcast for west and north where occasional light rain will develop. This front is weak and may produce only 2-5 mm rainfalls, but could briefly flare up later this afternoon in the southeast before moving out towards Wales. Highs 13-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows 4-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable amounts of cloud and a few showers, once again not too active with 2-5 mm amounts. Highs 13-16 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, lows 3-6 C and highs 14-17 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy intervals but some hazy sunshine and a bit warmer, after morning fog patches dissipate highs will reach about 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Once again, mild with a mixture of cloud and sunshine. Highs about 18 or 19 C. Rain is now expected to remain mostly off to the west of Connacht. Make a note, there's a total eclipse of the Moon late overnight (around 4 a.m. Monday) that might be visible as skies in some places could remain clear.

OUTLOOK ... This pleasant spell of autumn weather may last several more days as the high pressure associated will be slow to break down. When it does weaken, stronger east to southeast winds may bring in cloudier weather and perhaps some rain by mid-week around the first of October.

There is still some chance of Tropical Storm Ida eventually becoming a strong hurricane somewhere between the Azores and Bermuda but very little certainty yet about where it might then head (in about ten days to two weeks from now) if that happens at all.

My local weather on Tuesday was very pleasant, sunny and rather warm at about 20 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 24 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy, showers may develop into brief thunderstorms in some places although a few places will stay dry, so quite mixed conditions in a cool westerly wind of 40-60 km/hr with some higher gusts near Atlantic coasts. Highs only 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending with longer clear intervals, chilly, lows 3-6 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, lows 3-6 C and highs 14-17 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy intervals but some hazy sunshine and a bit warmer, after morning fog patches dissipate (morning lows 3-6 C) highs will reach about 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Once again, mild with a mixture of cloud and sunshine. Highs about 18 or 19 C. Rain is now expected to remain mostly off to the west of Connacht. Make a note, there's a total eclipse of the Moon late overnight (around 4 a.m. Monday) that might be visible as skies in some places could remain clear.

OUTLOOK ... This pleasant spell of autumn weather may last several more days as the high pressure associated will be slow to break down. When it does weaken, stronger east to southeast winds may bring in cloudier weather and perhaps some rain by mid-week around the first few days of October. Highs could touch 19 or 20 C during this warm spell in parts of the inland central and western counties, east and south coasts will remain a bit cooler due to sea breezes (15-17 C).

There is not much new to report on Tropical Storm Ida but its prospects continue to look somewhat favourable for eventual development in a region between Bermuda and the Azores, possibly closer to Bermuda now. But for the next three days this storm will remain close to where it is now, east of Puerto Rico.

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy with a bit of sun at times, and highs near 18 C. Much of North America is basking in sunshine and warmer than average temperatures, in particular around Denver where temperatures have been running well above normal and setting some daily records (near 32 degrees, normal is closer to 23).

The El Nino continues to look stronger and while there has been some minor changes recently, the cold Atlantic regime remains fairly static in the east-central regions. I am gradually checking out some ideas for the winter forecast which I hope to have available in mid-October.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 25 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some sunny intervals with cloud increasing in western counties, generally dry apart from some brief sprinkles of rain in Connacht, highs 14 C north to 17 C south and east.

TONIGHT ... Clouds will gradually clear but fog patches and mist may then follow as lows settle into the 4-7 C range. Somewhat milder overnight near the west coast, lows 7-9 C.

SATURDAY ... Hazy sunshine mixed with cloudy intervals, warmer with southerly breezes 40-60 km/hr, and highs 16-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm with southeasterly breezes 40-60 km/hr, morning lows 4-7 C and afternoon highs 17-19 C, warmest inland and west coast. Some low cloud and drizzle could brush past the Mayo coast late in the day.

Astronomy note: total eclipse of the (perigeean) moon lasting from about 3:00 a.m. to 4:45 a.m. Monday, a fairly good chance of getting a view, would suggest higher slopes to get above mist and fog.

MONDAY to THURSDAY will continue this warm and dry spell in moderate southeast winds backing more to east by mid-week. Highs will continue to reach 18-20 C away from somewhat cooler east and south coasts (15-17 C). Nights will tend to be cool unless fog spreads out into low cloud, so expect some variation but generally 3-7 C. Longer spells of clear skies could promote ground frost and dense fog patches.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slow moving low pressure systems will replace the settled pattern around Friday 2nd or Saturday 3rd October, and this may lead to rather frequent rainfall in the next week to ten days as lows may move slowly across Ireland from the south from time to time. Temperatures would likely fall back to near average highs of 13-16 C but nights would be mild.

The latest news on Tropical Depression Ida is that the "storm" is fighting its way north through a hostile shear environment to a location where it might in theory strengthen, but chances don't look that great for it to survive -- however, we can't totally rule out a new burst of activity next week.

Meanwhile my local weather on Thursday was overcast with rain at times, not very heavy this time, with the high around 16 C. Hopefully this rain will move out by this afternoon leading to a pleasant weekend here.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 26 September, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Hazy sunshine for parts of the inland south, east and central counties, mixed with cloudy intervals which will be more persistent near west coast and in northern counties, a little warmer with southerly breezes 40-60 km/hr, and highs 16-19 C.

TONIGHT ... Extensive mist or low cloud likely, some clear patches inland south and east, lows 4-7 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm with southeasterly breezes 40-60 km/hr, morning lows 4-7 C and afternoon highs 17-21 C, warmest inland and west coast. Some low cloud and drizzle could brush past the Mayo coast late in the day.

Astronomy note: total eclipse of the (perigeean) moon lasting from about 3:00 a.m. to 4:45 a.m. Monday, a fairly good chance of getting a view, would suggest higher slopes to get above mist and fog.

MONDAY to THURSDAY will continue this warm and dry spell in moderate southeast winds 40-60 km/hr at times, backing more to east by mid-week. Highs will continue to reach 18-23 C away from somewhat cooler east and south coasts (15-17 C). Nights will tend to be cool unless fog spreads out into low cloud, so expect some variation but generally 3-7 C. Longer spells of clear skies could promote ground frost and dense fog patches. Somewhat cooler east coast by Thursday as east winds freshen, highs 13-16 C there.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY (2 to 4 October) will continue a cooling trend in easterly winds of 30-50 km/hr with some stronger gusts in south and east. At this point only limited low-level moisture is expected to make it as far north as Ireland's southern coasts, with more significant rain possibly confined to the south coast of England and northern France. Temperatures will be down considerably from the peak values early next week, possibly into the 11-14 C range daytime and 3-6 C overnight.

The GFS model then gives us a very interesting long range scenario (that is by no means set to occur) as the westward movement of the high opens the door for very chilly arctic air to move south and reach Ireland before the 10th of October. If this were to happen, a few days with highs of 7-9 C might occur, and hail showers might be expected near north-facing coasts.

Although Ida is weak, opinions vary as to what might happen over 3-5 days because there remains some organized circulation and eventually it drifts further west into a considerably better environment for tropical storm development. Also, there's some chance of a separate tropical system forming further west near the Bahamas.

My local weather on Friday began overcast but dry, and the sun managed to burn through the cloud at times in the afternoon. We are now also expecting a week of dry and pleasant autumn weather here.