Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 22 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Strong southwest winds easing to 40-70 km/hr by mid-day, rain ending for most regions but persisting in south Leinster until about 1100h, a further 5-10 mm likely. Temperatures peaked in the midnight to 0300h period reaching 14 C in places, and are now slowly falling but they should level off soon at about 7-9 C. Partial clearing will spread into western and northern counties soon and this trend will slowly begin to materialize in the south and east at least by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Partly to mostly cloudy, colder than most recent nights, isolated showers. Winds moderate southwesterly 30-50 km/hr near coasts, lows 2-5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain developing with strong southerly winds by afternoon and evening. Highs 8-11 C and rainfalls of 10-20 mm. The strong winds will peak at about 70-110 km/hr just before midnight in most regions, and will then ease off near Atlantic coasts while staying rather strong all night over eastern counties.

THURSDAY (Christmas Eve 24th) ... Becoming windy again in parts of Connacht and west Munster, but this secondary disturbance will weaken rapidly as it crosses the country around mid-day, bringing a final spell of showery rain and gusty winds (50-80 km/hr). Morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs 6-8 C. Colder by afternoon and evening, some of the showers becoming wintry over higher parts of the northwest. At midnight (the real Christmas Eve) it's likely to be cold (1-3 C north, 3-5 C south), somewhat misty but with a few stars and the full moon showing through at times, and there could be sleety light showers in some parts too.

FRIDAY (Christmas Day 25th) ... Overcast, winds gradually strengthening from the southeast to reach 50-80 km/hr by late in the day, rain spreading rapidly north, perhaps starting as sleet over higher terrain. (Glenshane Pass and similar routes could be icy). Turning milder all through the day and into the evening, temperatures near 4 C in the morning, 7-9 C afternoon and 10-13 C by evening. About 15-30 mm of rain is possible.

SATURDAY (St Stephen's Day 26th) ... Models are now in disagreement about what happens after the Christmas Day warm front moves through. Some models keep it slowly advancing north which would imply occasional rain and highs 10-12 C, others cut off the rain event with a brief spell of slack winds and somewhat cooler weather. I think the continued rain solution is probably more likely.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It seems likely to remain mild and whatever happens on the 26th, the southerly flow will resume and become quite strong at times as frontal waves form ahead of a very deep low pressure system in the central Atlantic Ocean. If one of these waves forms a strong enough secondary low, there could be a spell of very strong winds around the 29th or 30th. Temperatures will be in the 8-12 C range much of the time. Then it seems likely to turn colder in stages after a windy and mild New Years.

Most of the above will apply to BRITAIN, the overnight 23rd-24th windstorm will be more severe in northern Scotland (gusts to 130 km/hr), but will largely miss southern England. In general southern England could see more fog and one or two colder nights than other parts due to closer proximity of high pressure over the near continent.

As mentioned yesterday, the eastern and central United States and most of eastern Canada are in a record warm pattern that may bring temperatures as high as 20 C with the risk of severe storms along a cold front in the Ohio valley and inland southeast tomorrow and Thursday. Meanwhile out west it is closer to normal temperature values, Monday here was overcast with light rain at times and a high near 6 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 23 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for strong winds gusting to 110 km/hr in exposed locations this afternoon and evening, accompanied by 15-25 mm rainfalls.


TODAY .. Windy, occasional showers turning heavier by afternoon and evening, peak wind gusts 110 km/hr (south to southwest) late afternoon to evening hours, 15-25 mm rainfalls, highs 10-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Further showers and strong winds easing for a time in parts of the western coastal counties, lows 4-6 C.

THURSDAY (Christmas Eve 24th) ... Winds will increase again to about 60 to 90 km/hr around mid-day from the west, showers becoming rather squally, temperatures steady 5-8 C.

OVERNIGHT 24th-25th ... A few isolated wintry showers mainly on higher ground in the northwest, misty or foggy in some areas, cold, lows 1-3 C inland north, 3-5 C south and east, and 4-6 C western coastal counties. Winds becoming rather slack inland. Full moon may occasionally be visible, possibly with a lunar halo.

CHRISTMAS DAY ... Rain spreading north, turning milder in stages with winds increasing to southeast 50-80 km/hr. Mid-day temperatures 5-8 C but could reach 10-13 C evening especially southern half of the country. Rainfalls about 10 to 20 mm for most, 20 to 30 mm possible in south.

ST STEPHEN's DAY (26th) ... Mild with rain and moderate southwest winds, highs 8-12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Fairly reliable indications now that strong winds may develop around the 28th in an otherwise mild and moderate period of sometimes wet weather in a generally southwesterly flow. This stronger interval of southerly winds could be as strong as 120 km/hr, so stay tuned. The mild spell should last into the first day or two of next year.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with light showers and it remains rather cool at about 7 C.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE __ Wed 23 Dec 2015 __ 8 p.m.

Radar is showing a squall line feature approaching Clare and Galway. This may hold together for about two hours producing locally damaging wind gusts, bursts of heavier rain and hail. There is some risk of thunder. The feature should begin to dissipate later this evening when it reaches a line from about Sligo to Limerick. With that weakening, the winds across most of the western counties will fall off to about 50 to 70 km/hr before picking up again tomorrow morning to 70-90 km/hr.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 24 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brief sunny intervals, passing showers (about 3 to 5 mm for most locations) that may turn a little wintry at times on higher ground in western counties. Feeling rather cold by recent standards, highs about 6 to 8 C.

TONIGHT ... A few isolated wintry showers mainly on higher ground in the northwest, misty or foggy in some areas, cold, lows 1-3 C inland north, 3-5 C south and east, and 4-6 C western coastal counties. Winds becoming rather slack inland. Full moon may occasionally be visible, possibly with a lunar halo. (the timing of the full moon to be exact is 11:11 a.m. Christmas Day).

CHRISTMAS DAY ... Rain spreading north, turning milder in stages with winds increasing to southeast 50-80 km/hr. Mid-day temperatures 5-8 C but could reach 10-13 C evening especially southern half of the country. Rainfalls about 10 to 20 mm for most, 20 to 30 mm possible in south. Stronger south to southwest winds will develop over west Munster by evening.

ST STEPHEN's DAY (26th) ... During the morning, mild with rain and moderate southwest winds, highs 8-12 C. Later on, partial clearing and turning a bit cooler in westerly winds.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Mild with mostly southerly winds to New Years, with the risk of an interval of very strong winds. Occasional rain, highs 9-12 C. The most likely interval for stormy weather appears to be 29th-30th.

See previous day's forecast for details about Britain and eastern United States where it will be very mild (warm actually, 25 C today for Washington D.C.) ... my local weather has been overcast with occasional sleety showers and highs of only 3 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 25 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... The lingering cold in the north will moderate rather slowly, but southern and central counties will turn steadily milder (reaching 10-12 C) with 15-25 mm of rain for many places, although it may be more persistent in the southeast than elsewhere. There is a slight risk of sleet or wet snow when the precipitation begins further north around mid-day but it's more likely to be a cold rain with a slight fog as temperatures slowly rise to the 4-7 C range. A raw southeast wind will make it feel even colder in some parts of Ulster and north Leinster. Further south this wind will be mild and will turn more southerly.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming showery, then ending in some western counties. Lows about 7-9 C.

St STEPHEN's DAY (Saturday 26th) ... Morning showers, then partial clearing, highs around 10 or 11 C except 7-9 C in northwest. Moderate westerly winds developing during the mid-day to afternoon hours.

SUNDAY ... Breezy and mild with occasional rain, winds southerly 40-70 km/hr and lows of 4-7 C, highs 10-12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Continued breezy and mild, mainly southerly winds to about New Years, with the risk of a strong or even severe wind storm on or about Wednesday the 30th, and a possible second windy period on New Years Day. I expect that we will have greater clarity on how severe and the timing of these events either tomorrow or Sunday. Temperatures will be generally above normal and near 10 C most of the time to New Years. It may then start to turn considerably colder.

My local weather on Thursday was cold and damp with sleet showers and a high of about 4 C. This was in contrast to the very warm weather in eastern parts of North America where it broke records for the 24th of December in many places. This very mild spell is set to continue in the east to about New Years Eve.

Hope you're enjoying your Christmas Day and stay safe on the roads which may get a bit slick with this rain, especially in northern areas where it could be marginally icy in a few spots.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 26 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain will linger over the southeast for much of the day bringing further accumulations of 15-25 mm. The milder air will also remain in place there keeping temperatures around 10 or 11 C. A slight cooling trend will be noted in counties from about Dublin to Cork and Kerry with temperatures slowly falling off to 7-8 C. Clearing will be late to develop in western counties but there should be enough afternoon sunshine to bring temperatures up a little in parts of Connacht and Ulster that have remained in the cooler air mass, so generally a dry day with highs near 7 C there.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, mostly dry, lows 3-6 C.

SUNDAY ... Generally dry conditions except for showers or light rain near Atlantic coasts and possibly some parts of the south. Highs 8-10 C in moderate southerly winds.

MONDAY ... Windy and milder, occasional rain, southerly winds to about 90 or 100 km/hr in gusts, at least in more exposed locations. Lows 5-7 C and highs 10-12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The guidance still hints at storm potential with frequent "almost" or "near miss" situations on the GFS model from 29th to about 3 January before yet another (probably phantom) major storm depicted for the 7th of January. The European model has backed away from anything too intense all through the period from Monday to New Years. While temperatures should generally be mild, there are hints of colder weather at times such as New Years Eve and some days in early January, but confidence is rather low in all details, just the overall southerly flow seems reliable.

My weather on Christmas Day was pleasant with some sunshine at times and a high near 5 C. It remains near-record warm in parts of eastern North America where highs reached 21 C in places on Christmas Day, a slight cooling trend is now expected but still mainly above 10 C for most until New Years.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 27 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Watch for a few icy spots on roads in central counties, especially in lower lying valley locations, to about 0900h. Sunny for at least the first half of the day in many areas, becoming cloudy first near the south and southwest coasts, some light rain may follow there, but otherwise it should remain largely dry. Winds light at first will begin to increase gradually to reach southeast 40-60 km/hr by late afternoon.
Highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Becoming very windy in south coast and western counties, winds southeast to south 70-110 km/hr, rain (5-15 mm) and temperatures steady near 10 or 11 C. Further east, not quite as windy, and rain more intermittent (3-7 mm). Temperatures slowly rising to about 10 C by morning.

MONDAY ... Very windy during the morning, easing mid-day and afternoon. These strong southerly winds will begin to veer more to southwest and west as they moderate. Rain becoming showery then partial clearing from the west reaching at least the western half of the country. Highs 10-12 C but slightly cooler by afternoon.

TUESDAY ... Becoming very windy again, southerly winds 80-120 km/hr in exposed parts of the west, as an intense ocean storm (possibly Frank?) moves north well offshore towards Iceland. Periods of rain (10-20 mm) and temperatures steady in the range of 9 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and possibly becoming windy again, not quite as mild, morning lows 5-7 C and afternoon highs 8-10 C.

THURSDAY (New Years' Eve) ... Breezy to windy, showers possibly wintry over high ground, temperatures generally steady 5-7 C at lower elevations, 2-4 C higher slopes.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There could be further strong winds at times but a lot of the guidance is now beginning to hint at the milder air masses meeting more resistance from cold air spreading west from central Europe. Although this may only make it as far as eastern Britain and Scotland, there would be a knock-on effect in terms of an intermediate air mass that will generally be closer to normal January temperatures than the current late December mild spell.

So for BRITAIN, it's basically a similar picture although further east the next two or three days of very strong wind gusts may be more moderate, while the New Years colder weather may find it easier to arrive there.

The very mild weather in the eastern U.S. continues with a strong disturbance moving out of Texas in two waves, one of which will rapidly move across the northeast states today and tonight, while a stronger package of energy will move slowly northeast spreading heavy rainfalls and some severe storms (there has been quite a severe outbreak already on Saturday in eastern Texas).

My local weather on "Boxing Day" as it is known here was overcast and cold with sleet this evening falling as snow just slightly higher up on local hills. The temperature has been somewhere between 1 and 3 C most of the day.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 27 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Watch for a few icy spots on roads in central counties, especially in lower lying valley locations, to about 0900h. Sunny for at least the first half of the day in many areas, becoming cloudy first near the south and southwest coasts, some light rain may follow there, but otherwise it should remain largely dry. Winds light at first will begin to increase gradually to reach southeast 40-60 km/hr by late afternoon.
Highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Becoming very windy in south coast and western counties, winds southeast to south 70-110 km/hr, rain (5-15 mm) and temperatures steady near 10 or 11 C. Further east, not quite as windy, and rain more intermittent (3-7 mm). Temperatures slowly rising to about 10 C by morning.

MONDAY ... Very windy during the morning, easing mid-day and afternoon. These strong southerly winds will begin to veer more to southwest and west as they moderate. Rain becoming showery then partial clearing from the west reaching at least the western half of the country. Highs 10-12 C but slightly cooler by afternoon.

TUESDAY ... Becoming very windy again, southerly winds 80-120 km/hr in exposed parts of the west, as an intense ocean storm (possibly Frank?) moves north well offshore towards Iceland. Periods of rain (10-20 mm) and temperatures steady in the range of 9 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and possibly becoming windy again, not quite as mild, morning lows 5-7 C and afternoon highs 8-10 C.

THURSDAY (New Years' Eve) ... Breezy to windy, showers possibly wintry over high ground, temperatures generally steady 5-7 C at lower elevations, 2-4 C higher slopes.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There could be further strong winds at times but a lot of the guidance is now beginning to hint at the milder air masses meeting more resistance from cold air spreading west from central Europe. Although this may only make it as far as eastern Britain and Scotland, there would be a knock-on effect in terms of an intermediate air mass that will generally be closer to normal January temperatures than the current late December mild spell.

So for BRITAIN, it's basically a similar picture although further east the next two or three days of very strong wind gusts may be more moderate, while the New Years colder weather may find it easier to arrive there.

The very mild weather in the eastern U.S. continues with a strong disturbance moving out of Texas in two waves, one of which will rapidly move across the northeast states today and tonight, while a stronger package of energy will move slowly northeast spreading heavy rainfalls and some severe storms (there has been quite a severe outbreak already on Saturday in eastern Texas).

My local weather on "Boxing Day" as it is known here was overcast and cold with sleet this evening falling as snow just slightly higher up on local hills. The temperature has been somewhere between 1 and 3 C most of the day.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 28 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERTS for two intervals of very strong winds, first one this morning 0600 to 1200h (South-southeast 70-110 km/hr) then a second one tomorrow afternoon about 1500h to 2300h (south 80-120 km/hr), slight easing of those winds except for a brief resurgence Wednesday morning (70-110 km/hr) in western counties. Also some locally heavy rainfalls mainly on higher terrain in southwest and possibly also in Galway and Mayo. While the two events will give general rainfalls of 15-25 mm, some local amounts of 50-100 mm are possible, which would result in flooding, most likely in south Kerry and Cork.

TODAY ... Very windy this morning, south-southeast 70-110 km/hr, with rainfalls generally 10-20 mm, locally heavier in southwest. Temperatures steady 10-12 C. Winds easing slightly this afternoon and veering more to southwest and then west, temperatures falling slowly.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, wintry showers on higher terrain in north, a few rain showers elsewhere, lows 1 to 4 C.

TUESDAY ... Gradually becoming very windy with peak gusts 80-120 km/hr in western counties, 70-110 km/hr east, by afternoon and evening. Highs near 11 or 12 C by early evening. About 10-20 mm rainfall for most, but 40-70 mm possible in southwest, 20-40 mm in parts of western Connacht.

WEDNESDAY ... Still quite windy in parts of west Munster and Connacht, west Ulster, with further rain or showers, a few gusts to 110 km/hr possible. Temperatures will be sliding down early in the day to around 6-8 C then will stay in that range for the afternoon before falling steadily overnight.

THURSDAY (New Years' Eve) ... Variable cloud, wintry showers at times, mostly on higher ground but possibly briefly at or near sea level, as temperatures remain rather cold (2-6 C). Moderate southwest winds gusting to 70 km/hr will add some chill. At midnight it is likely to be quite cold (within a degree or two of freezing) with scattered wintry showers.

FRIDAY (New Years' Day) ... Windy and cold with rain or sleet (most likely on higher ground in north), strong southeast winds 70-110 km/hr, temperatures in the range 3-7 C except 7-10 C in west Munster.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Cold and unsettled, it still seems most likely that the colder air from the east will remain over eastern and northern Britain if it does arrive, but there will not be as much mild sourcing of the Atlantic flows which will be more of a modified arctic variety. Occasionally, very strong winds could develop in this pattern in early to mid January. Highs will be mostly 5-8 C.

My local weather on Sunday was cold and wet, highs were only about 3 C but the precipitation stayed mostly rain. Meanwhile, heavy rain is moving into the central states from the Gulf coast, and it remains quite mild in the eastern states.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 29 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERTS for another interval of very strong winds from offshore storm "Frank" peaking this afternoon about 1500h to 2300h (south 80-120 km/hr), then a slight easing of those winds except for a brief resurgence Wednesday morning (southwest 70-110 km/hr) in western counties. Also some locally heavy rainfalls mainly on higher terrain in southwest and possibly also in Galway and Mayo. While most locations will see about 15-30 mm, some local amounts of 50-100 mm are possible, which would result in flooding, most likely in south Kerry and Cork as well as parts of Waterford and Wicklow. The flood risk in Connacht is less definite as 30-50 mm is expected on higher terrain there..

TODAY ... The morning will be fairly temperate with a few sunny intervals and passing light showers, winds slowly increasing from the southwest at 40-60 km/hr by mid-day, then gradually becoming very windy with peak gusts 80-130 km/hr in western counties, 80-120 km/hr south coast and 70-110 km/hr east as well as any exposed locations inland, by afternoon and evening. Highs near 11 or 12 C by early evening. By morning, about 15-30 mm rainfall for most, but 50-100 mm possible in southwest, 20-40 mm in parts of western Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Heavy rain continuing in most areas, see above for expected storm totals by morning. Flood risk appears high from small rivers draining higher ground from Kerry and Cork to Waterford and Wicklow. Winds easing to southwest 40-60 km/hr, temperatures steady 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Still quite windy in parts of west Munster and Connacht, west Ulster, with further rain or showers, a few gusts to 110 km/hr possible during the morning then winds easing again during the afternoon. Temperatures will be sliding down early in the day to around 6-8 C then will stay in that range for the afternoon before falling steadily overnight.

THURSDAY (New Years' Eve) ... Variable cloud, wintry showers at times, mostly on higher ground but possibly briefly at or near sea level, as temperatures remain rather cold (2-6 C). Moderate southwest winds gusting to 70 km/hr will add some chill. At midnight it is likely to be quite cold (within a degree or two of freezing) with scattered wintry showers.

FRIDAY (New Years' Day) ... Windy and cold with rain or sleet (most likely on higher ground in north), strong southeast winds 70-110 km/hr, temperatures in the range 3-7 C except 7-10 C in west Munster. This storm will have less mild air to work with and could produce heavy icing conditions on higher summits. Heavy sleet or wet snow is likely above 500 metres. This storm could be given the name Gertrude.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Cold and unsettled, it still seems most likely that the colder air from the east will remain over eastern and northern Britain if it does arrive, but there will not be as much mild sourcing of the Atlantic flows which will be more of a modified arctic variety. Occasionally, very strong winds could develop in this pattern in early to mid January. Highs will be mostly 5-8 C.

The forecast for BRITAIN is generally similar with the strongest winds from "Frank" affecting Wales and western Scotland. There will be somewhat higher risks of wintry precipitation in early January if a frontal boundary develops across parts of central Britain. It does not look as though January will continue the extremely mild trend of November-December, temperatures look set to be closer to normal values.

Across eastern North America, the milder air remains in place as a strong low moves slowly through the Chicago region towards Lake Erie. North of a frontal boundary, bands of sleet, freezing rain and snow have developed. The heaviest snow will be in central Michigan and Ontario, freezing rain most likely on the north shores of the lower Great Lakes. This storm will gradually weaken and jump forward to a new centre in the Gulf of Maine on Wednesday. Further south, temperatures will stay in the range of 10-15 C around Washington D.C. and 20-23 C in the southeast states.

My local weather continued cold but there were some brief sunny breaks for a change, highs near 4 C. We have yet to see any really active winter weather at my location despite a lot of it in nearby mountains.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 30 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for heavy rainfall will expire soon in eastern counties but 10-15 mm further rainfall could exacerbate flooding already developing there. Severe flood risks are ongoing in parts of the southwest after 50-75 mm rainfalls, only slight further amounts appear likely today. ALERT for strong winds has generally expired from the first part of "Frank" but a secondary low now moving north past Kerry will bring on a limited second round of strong winds which could gust as high as 130 km/hr from the south to southwest, mainly confined to coastal areas of Cork, Kerry, and Clare this morning, but possibly showing up in more exposed locations further inland. The effects of this secondary low further inland and across Leinster around mid-day or early afternoon are expected to be less severe but watch for updates.


TODAY ... Heavy rain ending in Leinster and east Ulster later this morning after 10-15 mm additional falls. A few thundery showers over Connacht will spread into west Ulster this morning, 3-5 mm amounts from these. In general winds in eastern and central regions will be south to southwest 50-80 km/hr while western counties and parts of the south coast could see a very windy interval this morning of rapidly veering S-SW-WNW winds 70-120 km/hr with potential for locally damaging gusts near exposed coasts to 130 km/hr. This feature will probably weaken around mid-day when it crosses higher terrain in Connacht, but watch for updates. As it progresses, somewhat drier air will flow in from the west and temperatures will tend to remain steady in the 7-9 C range.

TONIGHT ... Intervals of light rain may turn to sleet or even snow inland especially north of a Limerick to Dublin line where 1-3 cms of wet snow could accumulate especially on higher ground. It will be quite cold (-1 to +2 C) away from the milder south coast, where lows of 4-6 C are likely. Some icy stretches of road could be encountered in higher parts of Connacht, inland Leinster and south Ulster.

THURSDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, cold, with passing showers of hail or sleet, some snow possible on higher ground, amounts generally slight with 1-3 cm potential in a few places. Highs 4-7 C with warmest readings in the coastal south and west.

NEW YEAR's EVE (midnight) conditions will be generally overcast with a few clear patches, the frequency of wintry showers will be dropping off so many will have a dry and bracing New Years Eve with temperatures near the freezing point (-2 to +2 C).

FRIDAY (New Years' Day) will be windy and rain will be slowly advancing into the south and west during the late morning, reaching other regions in the afternoon, as winds increase to E-SE 60-100 km/hr. About 20-30 mm rain can be expected from this system and some sleet or wet snow on higher summits as temperatures near sea level will only be in the range of 6-9 C.

SATURDAY will continue, wet, windy and rather cold with gradual improvements later in the day as winds turn to a southwest then eventually westerly direction at 50-70 km/hr, highs will be near 7 C.

SUNDAY is expected to be wet and windy with 20-40 mm rainfall potential and highs 8-11 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will probably see even more rain and amounts could be excessive leading to more severe flood risks, temperatures will be steady in the 5-7 C range, and this storm could produce heavy snow on high slopes above 400 metres.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for more wet and windy weather and some spells that are close enough to freezing to bring snow or sleet into the mix.

Over in BRITAIN today will become quite windy and very mild, colder air won't reach them until tonight or Thursday morning in most cases. The general picture is similar with a lot of unsettled and at times stormy weather over the next two weeks.

The recent sleet and snow storm in parts of the Great Lakes region moved quickly through New England into eastern Canada where it is spawning the low expected off the south coast of Ireland on New Years Day. Further south this low had little effect on the record warm spell (New York City is currently at about 7 deg above normal (C) for their warmest ever December).

My local weather was cold and sunny with a lot of fresh snow visible on the nearby mountains. Highs were about 4 C at sea level.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 31 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for heavy rainfalls and strong winds mainly affecting the southern half of the country from about mid-day Friday 1st of January to mid-day Saturday 2nd. About 30 mm of rain is possible and wind gusts to 110 km/hr on the south coast; these will interact around times of high tides near estuaries to worsen local flooding conditions renewed by this rainfall.

TODAY ... Blustery and cold with passing showers that could turn wintry at times especially over higher terrain in Connacht, west Ulster. Highs 5-8 C and temperatures could fall lower at times over higher parts of the north. At least there will be some respite from the steady rainfalls with only 2-5 mm expected in most places. Winds southwest to west 50-80 km/hr will add quite a chill (feeling more like 2 C).

TONIGHT ... Generally dry and cold with local frosts and just a slight risk of a passing wintry shower, lows for most -2 to +2 C. Temperatures will rise slowly after midnight in the south and west as stronger southeast winds develop. Rain by morning in west Munster.

NEW YEARS's DAY ... Cold and windy for most as milder air will only make slow progress into parts of west Munster, highs 6-8 C except about 8-11 C in parts of Cork, Kerry and nearby parts of Clare, Limerick, Waterford. Winds increasing to SE 70-110 km/hr, rainfalls of 10-20 mms will spread slowly into east and north later in the day. Risk of sleet or wet snow on higher terrain and feeling very cold in the raw winds, dress for -2 C if spending time outdoors.

OVERNIGHT 1st-2nd into SATURDAY 2nd ... Windy and generally rather cold although milder air will hang around near the south coast overnight. Temperatures will remain fairly constant near 9 C south, 6 C central and 4 C in the north. Winds will shift directions to northeast then north to northwest as the low moves away, maintaining 50-90 km/hr speeds and adding quite a chill. About 10-20 mm further rainfall (and sleet on hills) can be expected, with a bit of improvement towards the afternoon.

SUNDAY-MONDAY will see the arrival of yet another Atlantic storm, this one bringing in somewhat milder southerly winds, heavy rain at times (20-40 mm) and highs both days around 10 C, although it may begin to turn considerably colder in Ulster on Monday.

TUESDAY looks interesting as colder air from central Europe tries to push into the frontal zone, it may have some effect on east Ulster keeping temperatures there around 3-5 C, otherwise most of the wintry effects will remain in central to northern Britain. Most of Ireland will be windy or at least blustery and temperatures near 7 C, with passing hail or rain showers in a strong westerly flow. That will continue to be the general story of the rest of the week too as deep lows continue to form to the northwest of Ireland and head into the North Sea via Scotland. For the time being, there are no definite signs of really cold wintry conditions away from higher ground in the north, but the mild conveyer belt of the past two months seems to be breaking down in favour of a colder flow that originates in Greenland and modifies slightly over an unusually cold Atlantic, a pattern that can bring heavy snow showers to parts of the west if the modification is slight enough.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and quite cold with highs barely making it to 1 or 2 deg C. We have a clear night and lows near -6 C on the way now. About this time last night (local time) we had an earthquake that is now confirmed to be 4.7 on the Richter scale, so not a biggie (or perhaps this service would be suspended).

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 1 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for heavy rainfalls in parts of western Ireland next two or three days from today's weather system and another one due in on Sunday. In total, some places in Kerry, Cork, western Galway and Mayo could see 75-100 mm of rain spread out over three or four days. While this may not lead to severe flooding it will slow down any recovery from recent flooding. Amounts in other regions will total about 30-50 mm over the three to four days. Winds will generally not quite reach alert levels.


TODAY ... Windy with periods of rain starting later this morning in Munster, spreading slowly east and north. About 20-30 mm by midnight in some parts of the west, 5-15 mm east. Winds southeast 60-90 km/hr with some higher gusts, feeling rather cold as highs struggle to reach 7-9 C (except 10-11 C in parts of southwest coastal regions).

TONIGHT ... Intermittent rain, becoming heavier in western counties towards morning, as winds haul around to the northwest on Atlantic coasts (remaining east to northeast in eastern counties). Lows 4-7 C. Winds gusting at times to about 70 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Rain gradually ending in west, more showery in east and north, moderate westerly winds backing to southerly late in the day, highs about 9 or 10 C.

SUNDAY ... Periods of rain, windy and somewhat milder at 10 to 12 C, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr. About 10-20 mm rain for most, 20-40 mm in some parts of the west.

MONDAY ... Blustery, squally showers becoming mixed and wintry on higher ground, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs about 6-8 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, occasional showers of rain near sea level but sleet or wet snow in some inland locations, continued windy (west to northwest 50-80 km/hr) with lows 2-4 C and highs 5-8 C.

OUTLOOK ... More of this transitional almost wintry weather with occasional wintry showers or temporary coverings of snow on hills, temperatures in the range of 5-8 C daytime, 2-4 C nights. There may be an interval of stronger winds around the 7th or 8th but in general it looks like a very static pattern of cold maritime air masses in a strong westerly flow.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and quite cold with a high barely reaching +1 C, frost remained all day in the shade. It's clear and about -5 C as we approach midnight ... Happy New Year.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 2 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain gradually ending from west to east, and from the start it will be more showery than continuous in most of the east and north, so expect perhaps 10 mm further in south-central and southeast counties, 5-10 mm at most elsewhere, and a relatively dry afternoon with moderate westerly winds until early afternoon, backing to southerly 40-60 km/hr late in the day, highs about 9 or 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain gradually spreading onto south coast again, 5-15 mm can be expected, winds increasing to SE 50-80 km/hr. Staying dry until near sunrise in north and east. Lows 5-7 C.

SUNDAY ... Periods of rain, windy and somewhat milder at 10 to 12 C, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr. About 10-20 mm rain for most, with the rain easing in the south and becoming more confined to the north later in the day.

MONDAY ... Blustery around parts of the west and south coasts, showers becoming mixed and wintry on higher ground, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs about 7-9 C. Some longer dry intervals may develop but there could also be brief heavy and thundery downpours as the air mass becomes unstable.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, occasional showers of rain near sea level but sleet or wet snow in some inland locations, northerly winds developing, stronger near east coast (40-60 km/hr), lows 2-4 C and highs 5-8 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Windy with the possibility of gales or even storm force winds near exposed coasts, another significant rainfall event possible, and highs 7-9 C. Too early to speculate on how severe this may be, models keep hinting it will be the classic Atlantic mid-winter wind event.

OUTLOOK ... Change may be slow in this cool maritime flow, but if there is a change it seems most likely to be towards milder and somewhat more settled conditions for a few days as high pressure over the Azores region may eventually spread its influence north. If there is going to be some "real winter" this season, I would look for it in late January or early February the way things are going. Some wintry cold has managed to develop over parts of central and eastern Europe but it does not have much support to move further west, and if it does, it will probably have a hard time getting past the North Sea.

Meanwhile, not a lot going on in North America, temperatures in the east have cooled down to more normal values there, and it remains cold and sunny (clear at night) in the far west. My local weather on Friday was sunny and the high barely reached zero C so that a heavy frost lingered in all shady locations and it actually resembled snow despite nothing having fallen from the sky.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 3 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain will become mostly confined to the north, as partly cloudy conditions spread in from the southwest with moderate southerly winds. About 10 to 15 mm further rainfall is likely in all regions but Munster which will only see a further 2 to 5 mm now. One or two isolated heavy showers could develop after the clearing trend though. Reasonably mild with highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy at times near the south coast but most other regions will be in a slack wind pattern as low pressure (without much energy this time) drifts towards the west coast. Although skies could clear briefly, expect low cloud and fog to develop as temperatures stabilize near 2 or 3 C. A few showers may move inland near the west coast.

MONDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, breezy near south coast (SW to W 40-60 km/hr) but otherwise the rather slack winds will continue, picking up late in the day near Atlantic coasts. A few isolated heavy and possibly thundery showers will develop, mostly rain but hail is possible and sleet or snow could fall on high terrain. Highs 7-10 C for most, 5-8 C parts of the inland north.

TUESDAY ... Slightly colder in a developing northerly breeze, isolated bands of rain or showers, but also some sunny intervals, winds NE to N 40-60 km/hr in Leinster and east Ulster, NW 30-50 km/hr elsewhere. Rainfalls could reach 5 to 10 mm in a few spots. Morning lows 1-4 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY ... Becoming windy with periods of rain, possibly as much as 20 to 40 mm by Thursday, winds southerly veering to westerly and in the range of 70-110 km/hr. Temperatures mostly in the 7-10 C range.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat more settled towards the weekend, although still a few showers around, temperatures mostly 6-9 C. Most guidance has a rather ominous looking low approaching the south by Monday 11th, although the worst of this storm so far seems more aimed at southern England and the Channel as well as northern France. While it would get fairly windy in Munster, peak gusts there as shown on these early maps would be about 80 km/hr whereas potential for 150 km/hr or higher is shown over the Channel. We will obviously be keeping a close eye on this development (which basically forms out of a weak system entering the western Altantic around mid-week, there is nothing to see yet upstream). Perhaps if I open my window, it won't happen.

However, as it is clear (with patchy dense fog) and very cold (-7 C) here, I may not take any such action. Saturday was another clear day with a bit of a haze and fog over nearby open water (which is still quite a bit warmer than the land), and the high was only about 2 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 4 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, breezy near south coast (SW to W 40-60 km/hr) but otherwise the rather slack winds will continue, picking up late in the day from the northwest near Atlantic coasts. A few isolated heavy and possibly thundery showers will develop, mostly rain but hail is possible and sleet or snow could fall on high terrain. Highs 7-10 C for most, 5-8 C parts of the inland north.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few showers, brief clear intervals, moderate northwest winds in most regions but north to northeast after midnight in Leinster, 30-50 km/hr. Rather cold with lows 2-5 C.

TUESDAY ... Slightly colder in a developing northerly breeze, isolated bands of rain or showers, but also some sunny intervals, winds NE to N 40-60 km/hr in Leinster and east Ulster, NW 30-50 km/hr elsewhere. Rainfalls could reach 5 to 10 mm in a few spots. Morning lows 1-4 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Clear intervals early in the day for parts of north Leinster and east Ulster, otherwise increasing cloud followed by strong southeast winds reaching 60-100 km/hr by afternoon-evening, and heavy rain, 20-30 mm possible. Winds shifting rapidly to westerly in Atlantic coastal counties during the evening. Morning lows -1 to +4 C (coldest in clear northeast) and afternoon-evening highs 9-12 C mildest near south coast. Some stronger gusts may develop near east and south coasts. Foggy after the rain begins.

THURSDAY ... Rain becoming more showery but some squally hail showers likely in a blustery westerly 60-90 km/hr. Feeling cold as temperatures remain steady 6-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, rather cold with a few showers, moderate west to northwest winds. Lows 2-5 C and highs 7-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Weekend is likely to be reasonably settled although still with some showers at times, similar temperatures (7-9 C) and moderate winds. Monday remains very uncertain with guidance continually changing details of what may turn out to be a strong storm for some part of western Europe. Not all guidance develops this feature, but models which have it cannot seem to decide on a track, which has ranged from central Ireland to central France in the past few computer runs. What seems a bit more certain is that colder weather could slowly push south behind this storm or any other weaker troughs moving east, and temperatures may be coming down to considerably lower values next week.

Meanwhile, my local weather continued mostly clear and cold but a weak disturbance moving in from the south has spread in cloud and traces of snow this evening. The high on Sunday was about 4 C. Large parts of central and eastern North America continue to have very bland weather with temperatures just about normal for early January.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 5 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, more frequent by afternoon in western counties. Winds generally northeast to northwest, 30-50 km/hr. The northeast flow is most likely in north Leinster and east Ulster. Bands of moderate rain (possibly sleet on high terrain) will rotate around the slow-moving low which has now reached northwest Wales. The heaviest rainfalls are likely to be in central to south Leinster. Rainfalls could reach 5 to 10 mm in some places but 2-5 mm away from these heavier bands. Afternoon highs 6-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals for east Ulster and Leinster may allow patchy frost to develop around midnight and this could linger past sunrise in a few spots despite increasing cloud. Lows there will be -2 to +3 C. The west and south will likely cloud over early enough to avoid frost or dissipate any that does form as temperatures there rise to about 5-7 C by morning. Light winds except for increasing southeasterly breezes in west Munster by morning.

WEDNESDAY ... Clear intervals early in the day for parts of north Leinster and east Ulster, otherwise increasing cloud followed by strong southeast winds reaching 60-100 km/hr by afternoon-evening, and heavy rain, 20-30 mm possible. Foggy during the rainfall especially over hills (low cloud ceilings expected). Winds shifting rapidly to westerly in Atlantic coastal counties during the evening. Morning lows -1 to +4 C (coldest in clear northeast) and afternoon-evening highs 9-12 C mildest near south coast. Some stronger gusts may develop near east and south coasts. Foggy after the rain begins. I don't generally do aviation forecasts but if you fly, be aware of possible sharp wind shear by late afternoon or evening. There may be some isolated thundershowers along this well-defined trough line.

THURSDAY ... Early morning rain becoming more showery by daybreak but some squally hail showers likely in a blustery westerly 60-90 km/hr. Feeling cold as temperatures remain steady 6-8 C. Improving slowly by afternoon but remaining quite breezy.

FRIDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, rather cold with a few showers, moderate west to northwest winds. Lows 2-5 C and highs 7-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Weekend is likely to be somewhat unsettled although still with some dry intervals at times, but heavier showers that produce some hail are now expected as the remnants of the Thursday frontal system reorganize north of Scotland and rotate back around to revisit Ireland. Showers will be more frequent in western half of country, and similar temperatures to the latter part of the week will continue (7-9 C) with moderate west to northwest winds. Nights may be fairly cold especially with any prolonged clearing, lows could reach -1 C but are most likely to be around 2 or 3 C.

NEXT WEEK ... The chances of a strong storm forming in the Atlantic have diminished according to almost all guidance, and this seems related to the new trend of the rotating weekend low. Meanwhile the disturbance that was earlier seen as the nucleus of a developing storm seems to be moving too slowly to make it to the frontal zone near the Azores in time to break through rapidly swelling high pressure that is responding to big changes to the north and linking up to high pressure near Greenland. This will all conspire to force colder air south on northwest to north winds, and although it does not look quite like a true arctic outbreak yet, parts of Scotland at least will see some snow out of this, and Ireland will be colder than this week by 2 to 4 degrees, with sharper frosts possible. I would only expect some scattered light snowfalls on hills at this point but there is potential for this to upgrade if the ridge to the west locks in. This will also have the effect of shutting down the Atlantic rain machine altogether for a few days at least. A long settled interval does not seem likely, I would expect a rather unsettled interval to develop in about two weeks.

My local weather on Monday included a light snowfall that ended around dawn with just 1-2 cms, slippery side streets for an hour or two, the odd sunny interval later on with mostly cloudy skies and a high near 4 C. We're expecting another weak frontal system to provide 2-4 cms of snow Tuesday morning here, then mostly dry weather for the rest of the week with slowly moderating temperatures. It has turned quite cold in most of the eastern half of North America and this colder trend will be reinforced after some light rain towards the weekend that could turn to snow as arctic air rushes south. The hemispheric patterns are starting to change now and this may result in a considerably different second half of the winter in many regions.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 6 January, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for locally heavy rainfalls 20-30 mm possible in many counties but most likely in the inland southwest, and strong wind gusts later afternoon and early tonight, to about 110 km/hr in exposed locations near the south coast.

TODAY ... A few sunny intervals this morning, any lingering frost should dissipate by 0930h, then southeast winds picking up gradually with rain moving into Munster around late morning, Connacht and south Leinster by late afternoon, other regions by early evening. When the rain arrives, winds will increase to SE to S 70-100 km/hr in exposed locations, a few gusts to 110 km/hr around Cork and Waterford possibly. Brief renewed flooding is possible by this evening. Highs 6-8 C for most, 8-10 C in Munster.

TONIGHT ... Rain continuing most of the night in Leinster and most of Ulster, ending for a time then resuming as showers elsewhere. Winds will tend to fall off to rather light values in some areas, but could quickly increase from a westerly direction as new low pressure forms somewhere close to Dublin around midnight. That low will move into Scotland by morning and open a path for strong westerly winds that will be cold enough to create mixed wintry showers by morning on higher ground in the northwest at least. Lows will reach about 1-3 C in west, 4-7 C east.

THURSDAY ... Cold and windy with passing showers, some of them wintry especially on higher ground. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, backing to southwest 40-60 km/hr by evening. Highs about 6-8 C but feeling colder. About 3-5 mm of rain on average.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers but risk of some heavier rain developing later in the day across parts of the south, morning lows 1-3 C and highs 7-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy with occasional showers, lows 3-5 C and highs 7-9 C. Guidance is scattered on how strong these winds may become, at least 40-60 km/hr but possibly stronger.

SUNDAY ... Windy and slightly colder with scattered showers that may well become wintry on higher terrain. Lows 2-4 C and highs 5-8 C.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK ... Once again, guidance shows a bit of a spread but in most cases the theme is colder with risks of snow in onshore northwest to northeast winds at times. I think it's too early to be very specific on details given the spread in the guidance, but some models are indicating the potential for much lower temperatures by mid-week (a week from now that is), while others are more subdued. Splitting the difference I would say highs around the 3-7 C range and lows a few degrees below freezing inland to near freezing in large cities and near coasts. That spell would likely not persist very long before becoming more unsettled and slightly less cold by a degree or two. I'm still looking at the period around 20-25 January as being potentially quite volatile and perhaps then we'll be seeing quite an atmospheric battle being joined.

The outlook for BRITAIN is basically similar but today, a separate area of low pressure will bring light rain to southeast England this morning before fading out around mid-day. The rain moving into Ireland won't reach most parts of Britain until tonight and neither would the stronger winds.

My local weather on Tuesday started out with a sloppy mix of snow and sleet, then that turned to occasional rain and temperatures have edged up to about 4 degrees. We're expecting a clearing trend and colder temperatures again. Slightly milder for most eastern regions of North America to the weekend then a plunge into the deep freeze around Sunday and into next week, with mainly lake effect snowfalls in the transition after patchy light rain or wet snow during the frontal passage.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 7 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cold and rather windy (westerly 50-80 km/hr) with passing showers that may be sleety on hills or producing some snow on highest summits. Highs about 7 or 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, somewhat less windy, a few showers or (near south coast) intervals of light rain, lows 3-5 C.

FRIDAY ... Mixture of cloud and sunshine, breezy, passing showers. Highs about 7-10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Partly to mostly cloudy both days, occasional showers or light rain, possibly wintry on higher ground, lows 1-3 C and highs 5-8 C.

NEXT WEEK ... Some uncertainty remains on details but it will be turning a bit colder again, with some areas getting snow, probably mostly on higher ground but at times at lower elevations too. Winds will be generally from northwest or north at 40-60 km/hr but there may be brief intervals with northeast winds that will create temporary wintry shower potential near the east coast. Highs will be 3 to 6 C for most, and lows -3 to +1 C. Different models have a variety of details. For example, the European model wants to toy with that earlier theme of a strong storm from the central Atlantic, but this time it arrives later in the week and runs into the cold air in place. On the guidance provided, this would be a sleety mix of cold rain and snow for parts of Ireland and a strong wind event in southern England with a driving cold rain turning to snow on hills there. But I am not very convinced that this storm will actually develop as shown, other models are holding it back around the Azores unable to break through blocking high pressure. The main point of mentioning it is in case you hear stories of powerful winter storms, it would not take much imagination to see this storm as a wintry blizzard given the marginal guidance. But anyway, what's probably more likely is that we'll have various short-duration events to track all week, and eventually quite a few parts of Ireland could see at least temporary snow cover.

My local weather on Wednesday became partly sunny and it was just a bit milder at about 6 C. These clearing skies have led to dense fog this evening with roughly 200 metres visibility as we approach midnight here.

I may update this forecast in the afternoon or early evening if I find the mid-day model runs interesting. One thing to keep in mind here, the guidance is so scattered for next week, and there are so many different people with different philosophies looking at it all, that you are bound to hear all sorts of different possible scenarios. The most likely one is whatever seems to be near the middle of the spectrum.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 8 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy, a few showers and moderate southerly winds, highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers or periods of light rain, some clear intervals mainly in north, cold. Lows 2-4 C. Some icy patches on higher routes, and some sleet on hills.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers that may be sleety on hills, highs 7-9 C near sea level but 5-7 C inland on hills. Moderate southwest winds.

SUNDAY ... Morning showers or sleet, then partly to mostly cloudy, wintry showers developing, cold, with moderate to strong westerly winds, chance of some wet snow towards evening on hills in north. Lows 1-3 C and highs 6-8 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and cold with passing wintry showers, rain or hail more prevalent at sea level but a good chance of a temporary snow covering on higher ground, winds becoming northwest 50-80 km/hr adding chill to temperatures that will be steady in the 4-6 C range at best.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY are also looking rather cold with occasional showers and bright spells with cold west to northwest winds, highs near 6 C and morning lows in the range of -2 to +3 C.

OUTLOOK is quite uncertain, as models want to bring a distant storm through the Azores then towards Ireland or southern Britain by about Friday. This may influence forecasts more than the weather itself if you see what I'm saying ... frankly this particular low has been messing with the models for quite a few days, a while ago it was supposed to be arriving on Monday, so anything based on where it's supposed to be in eight days is a bit like one of those guaranteed lottery winning schemes (to me, but caveat emptor). What I feel is more likely is that further weak systems will continue to develop to the west, and one might drag some of the energy of this distant storm into France some time around the end of next week. This will keep the temperature profile on the marginal side for snow but there will be some chance of a rain-snow mixture of some kind when this develops. After the end of next week I am expecting a more active and possibly stormy interval where anything goes now that the Atlantic is not as strong as it was in December, apparently, and a Greenland high wants to join in the battle. While some snow could fall next week, I continue to think the end of this month and early February are the more likely time for a real shot of wintry weather.

Meanwhile, the "distant storm" we're talking about has moved off the southeast coast of the U.S., another sluggish system behind that one is bringing rain to the southeast states and will drag in a weak arctic front over the weekend, eventually making a stronger front that brings in very cold air for eastern North America next week. The west has been slowly warming, although a cold rain was falling much of Thursday in parts of southern California and Arizona with snow on mountains there. My local weather on Thursday was very foggy to start and it stayed misty all day although visibility improved to about a half mile from the morning 50 to 100 metres, highs were about 5 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 9 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


Astronomy note: New moon occurs early Sunday at 1:32 a.m., at which time it will be (like the Sun) below the horizon. There is no eclipse in the Pacific region where the moon would be invisible in the Sun's glare but located about 3 degrees above it as seen from locations near Japan or the Philippines. The crescent of the moon returns to evening skies this coming week, you might first spot it around Tuesday.

TODAY ... Blustery showers or intervals of rain, sleet on hills, in a band moving north this morning, followed by partial clearing, then variable cloud, showers that may be sleety on hills, highs 7-9 C near sea level but 5-7 C inland on hills. Moderate southwest winds 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Another interval of cold rain or sleet, possibly some snow on hills, once again spreading north followed by partial clearing. Lows 1-3 C.

SUNDAY ... Morning showers or sleet, then partly to mostly cloudy, wintry showers developing, cold, with moderate to strong westerly winds, chance of some wet snow towards evening on hills in north. Lows 1-3 C and highs 6-8 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and cold with passing wintry showers, rain or hail more prevalent at sea level but a good chance of a temporary snow covering on higher ground, winds slack for part of the day over Leinster and Ulster under the centre of low pressure but becoming northwest 50-80 km/hr in western and southern coastal counties, adding chill to temperatures that will be steady in the 4-6 C range at best.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY are also looking rather cold with occasional showers, some wintry especially on hills, and bright spells with cold west to northwest winds, highs 3 to 6 C and morning lows in the range of -3 to +2 C.

THURSDAY may bring an interval of sleet or snow, or a mix of cold rain near sea level and sleet/snow inland on hills, depending on how things evolve ... most of the guidance now shows part of that distant Atlantic low discussed yesterday breaking away Tuesday and heading into France or southern England by Thursday, and that would interact with another weak system moving east in the polar frontal zone to produce a wintry mixture. Whether this is heavy or just a nuisance amount of sleet and snow remains to be seen but temperatures will likely be in the 1-3 C range for most, although there's quite a range of possible outcomes still.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Guidance also suggests that the main portion of the distant Azores low will then head north and try to find a milder route to Ireland but higher pressure wedged in between the two portions will stick around for much of Friday and Saturday before relenting a bit on Sunday. This would lead to a cold, dry spell at the end of the week with a gradual milder trend although quite gradual so that sharp frosts of -6 to -3 C might persist to Sunday with highs gaining a degree or two each day through the 5-9 C range. There could be a fair amount of sunshine but some cloud is likely in western regions from the distant lows well off to the west. This rather bland outcome would likely be followed by about a week of milder weather with occasional light rain and gusty south to southwest winds, it may sound like a return to December weather but it doesn't look that extreme -- and a second cold spell might then follow but not right away, probably after the 24th.

The situation for BRITAIN is quite similar overall but towards the end of the week there could be a sharper bite to the cold especially if the Thursday weather systems manage to create any snow cover, as the core of the cold air will sit over Britain around Friday morning.

In the eastern U.S., the weekend will be rather mild with a spell of rain developing. In the Midwest, rain will turn to snow and it will become much colder on Sunday with biting northwest winds and lake effect snow squalls. Further west it will be dry and cold, while on the west coast, it will be mild and dry for most. That's how my local weather turned out on Friday, with hazy sun by afternoon and a pleasant high of 8 C. The snow level on nearby mountains remains near 400 metres for the time being. I got some pictures from friends travelling in the southwestern states and down there, the snow line is at about 1200 metres on most hills with sunshine and 15 C in lower elevations.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 10 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cold and rather windy, some intervals of sleety rain in a few areas this morning but fairly widespread dry, partly cloudy conditions with blustery southwest winds at times. Highs will reach 6 to 8 C at sea level and 4 to 6 C inland at elevations above 100-150 metres. Some snow could fall on higher slopes in any passing showers.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, very cold, occasional brief showers of sleet or cold rain, lows 1-3 C for most but possibly -2 C in some inland areas, a few icy patches may develop especially on less traveled routes.

MONDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine, cold with some scattered outbreaks of sleet, hail or cold rain, snow on hills especially widespread in north. Winds will decrease for many locations because of a slack gradient around low pressure crossing the central portions of the country but Atlantic coasts will see afternoon and evening stronger wind gusts developing from the northwest. Highs 5-7 C at best.

TUESDAY ... Very cold and windy, as northwest winds increase to 60-100 km/hr adding quite a chill as temperatures struggle to reach 5 C after morning lows generally close to freezing (-3 C is possible in a few locations). It will feel more like -5 C where exposed to the wind. Wintry showers are likely to become rather frequent and 2-5 cm of snow will fall on some higher parts of Connacht and Ulster as well as the higher peaks elsewhere. Some transient snow could come and go at lower elevations.

WEDNESDAY ... Not as windy but continued quite cold, some intervals of cold rain in a few southern counties, becoming sleety on hills, mixed wintry showers further north. While not as calm as Monday in most cases, the stronger winds will abate to 40-60 km/hr so it will feel a bit milder despite being in the same general range of -3 to +5 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are now looking even colder with very sharp frosts, lows -6 to -3 C, and highs about 3 to 6 C, in a moderate northerly flow but nights may produce rather calm conditions away from coasts. Some sunshine is likely both days with just a few isolated wintry showers, although we'll be watching for details to evolve in case of sea effect wintry showers.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is starting to look more settled, the high developing near the end of the week may be able to hold back the Atlantic lows (the first portion of the Azores disturbance is now expected to be quite weak mid-week and more of an issue for France than anywhere north of Brittany). The highs on the weekend and into early next week could remain a bit below normal values in the 5-8 C range and frosts could continue. Longer term, we have a lot of uncertainty due to vastly different possible outcomes once this high either weakens or reconsolidates with any other more distant highs in Greenland or eastern Europe. There is some potential for stormy weather to develop if briefly, and also some potential for severe cold to develop. So it's wait and see on which signal wins out.

The general picture in BRITAIN will be similar to the forecast above but there could be even colder nights late next week over any snow cover that develops from streamers off the Irish Sea or North Sea (in Wales, Scotland and northern England mostly).

The eastern U.S. has one more day of mild weather before sharply colder weather arrives tonight. This is already digging in over the Great Lakes region where some locally heavy snow squalls are developing. The mild air has temperatures above 10 C but the colder air is close to -10 C so there's quite a contrast, and this could set off some unseasonable thunderstorms in New York and Boston.

My local weather on Saturday was very pleasant for this time of year, it was clear and sunny, and not overly cold even in the morning despite a slight frost, highs then managed to reach 7 or 8 C with light winds.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 11 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for icy road conditions in some parts of the inland south and a few other locations this morning -- while the frost in those areas may fade before mid-day, the risk will then shift to the aftermath of any hail or snow showers that develop, mainly in western counties at elevations of 100m.

TODAY ... Some scattered morning frost and isolated fog patches, then a mixture of cloud and sunshine, cold with some scattered outbreaks of sleet, hail or cold rain, snow on hills especially widespread in north. Winds will decrease for many locations until this afternoon, because of a slack gradient around low pressure crossing the central portions of the country but Atlantic coasts will see stronger wind gusts developing from the northwest this morning and this trend will spread further east this afternoon as winds increase to 40-70 km/hr. Highs will only reach 4-7 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy and very cold with passing wintry showers that may expand into intervals of sleet or snow on hills in north and west. Winds increasing to northwest 60-100 km/hr especially in exposed parts of north and west. Lows zero to 2 C for most but could dip below freezing in a few valleys well inland.

TUESDAY ... Very cold and windy, as northwest winds increase to 60-100 km/hr adding quite a chill as temperatures struggle to reach 5 C after morning lows generally close to freezing (-3 C is possible in a few locations). It will feel more like -5 C where exposed to the wind. Wintry showers are likely to become rather frequent and 2-5 cm of snow will fall on some higher parts of Connacht and Ulster as well as the higher peaks elsewhere. Some transient snow could come and go at lower elevations.

WEDNESDAY ... Not as windy but continued quite cold, some intervals of cold rain in a few southern counties, becoming sleety on hills, mixed wintry showers further north. While not as calm as Monday in most cases, the stronger winds will abate to 40-60 km/hr so it will feel a bit milder despite being in the same general range of -3 to +5 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will become even colder especially at night with very sharp frosts, lows -6 to -3 C, and highs about 3 to 6 C, in a moderate northerly flow but nights may produce rather calm conditions away from coasts. Some sunshine is likely both days with just a few isolated wintry showers, although we'll be watching for details to evolve in case of sea effect wintry showers. A few parts of Ulster and north Connacht could see more significant snowfalls.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEKEND is for a continuation of the cold, dry weather as high pressure crests near or over Ireland while slowly sinking further south. This will produce overnight lows of -7 to -4 C except in a few more temperate coastal locations, and highs will struggle to get much above freezing, possibly into the 2 to 5 C range. If any snow cover persists those areas could remain at or below freezing all day. This cold spell will fade out next week but guidance is somewhat scattered on the timing. Some models want to resume a milder Atlantic flow with occasional rain as early as Monday but others have a very slow transition to milder southwest winds that could take much of the week.

See previous day(s) for comments on Britain which remain valid today. My local weather on Sunday was once again sunny with slight morning frost and an afternoon high of about 7 C. The east coast, meanwhile, enjoyed the last mild day for a while (near 18 C in places) but the colder air has now reached the larger cities after dropping temperatures about 10-15 degrees over the Great Lakes region earlier. Heavy snow squalls have developed wherever northwest winds cross the open Great Lakes (and there is no ice on any of them after such a mild December as they had). The week is expected to continue cold with occasional snow in the east, and mild with spells of light rain in the west.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 12 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Very cold and windy, as northwest winds increase to 60-100 km/hr adding quite a chill as temperatures remain fairly steady in the 4-6 C range (could reach 8 C south coast) and it will feel more like -5 C where exposed to the wind. Wintry showers are likely to become rather frequent and 2-5 cm of snow will fall on some higher parts of Connacht and Ulster as well as the higher peaks elsewhere. Some transient snow could come and go at lower elevations. The frequency of showers will range from about half of the time in parts of the north to possibly less than two hours out of the day in the south, and sunny intervals will be a little more frequent in the south too. Expect to see snowfall accumulations on hills in all parts of the country and occasionally at pass levels on various highways.

TONIGHT ... Continued windy although some moderation towards morning, mixed wintry showers continuing, lows -2 to +3 C. Some icy stretches may be encountered on higher routes.

WEDNESDAY ... Not as windy but continued quite cold, some intervals of cold rain in a few southern counties, becoming sleety on hills, mixed wintry showers further north. While not as calm as Monday in most cases, the stronger winds will abate to 40-60 km/hr so it will feel a bit milder despite highs being in the same general range of 4 to 6 C.

THURSDAY will become windy again (NW to N 50-80 km/hr) with mixed wintry showers and some risk of 3-5 cm snowfalls in parts of Ulster and Connacht, especially on higher terrain. Less frequent showers and some afternoon sunshine in parts of the south and east. Morning lows -2 to +3 C and highs about 5 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will become even colder especially at night with very sharp frosts, lows -6 to -3 C, and highs about 3 to 6 C, in a moderate northerly flow but nights may produce rather calm conditions away from coasts. Some sunshine is likely both days with just a few isolated wintry showers, although we'll be watching for details to evolve in case of sea effect wintry showers. A few parts of Ulster and north Connacht could see more significant snowfalls on Friday, but most places will be dry on Saturday under the core of high pressure.

SUNDAY will become overcast after a cold, clear start, and there could be light rain on the west coast by evening in a developing southerly flow. Lows will be in the range of -2 to +4 C and then highs about 5 to 7 C east, 8 to 10 C west.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK is milder with occasional rain and moderate south to southwest winds. It may become more stormy towards the end of that week.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with a few periods of rain and a high near 5 C. Further east, a weak snowfall producing wave has developed near Chicago and will bring 2-5 cm snowfalls to most of the lower Great Lakes region and possibly the first snowflakes of the season to parts of the east coast (although Boston had some already). Temperatures will remain very cold in the east all week.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 13 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and cold with widespread showers, mainly rain near sea level, sleet or wet snow on higher slopes, with a moderate southwest wind of 40-60 km/hr adding chill, highs generally 5-7 C (could reach 9 C in some coastal parts of west Munster). Average rainfalls or equivalent about 3-5 mm.

TONIGHT ... Showers may turn to snow on higher portions of north Connacht, west Munster and Ulster. Some places could have accumulations of 3-5 cm. Other regions will have less frequent showers with more of a mix of rain, sleet or snow in those. Temporary covering of 1-2 cm wet snow is possible. Lows will be generally close to freezing. Watch for icy sections on some higher routes in the north and also in the southwest.

THURSDAY ... Windy and cold with passing wintry showers. Some sunny intervals south and east. Highs 4-7 C. Winds northwest 50-70 km/hr making it feel closer to -2 C.

FRIDAY ... Severe frosts likely, a mixture of cloud and sunshine with just a slight chance of wintry showers near northern coasts. Lows -5 to -1 C, highs reaching only 3 to 6 C.

SATURDAY ... An area of rain may brush some parts of the west coast and it could turn to sleet or wet snow inland mainly in the western half of the country but also in parts of the inland southeast. Dry and cold for much of Leinster and Ulster. It may turn slightly milder in west Munster (7-9 C) while staying quite cold elsewhere (lows -3 to +2 C and highs 4-7 C).

SUNDAY ... Two possible outcomes are suggested, the frontal boundary may attempt to remain close to south and west coastal regions with more mixed precipitation, or the arctic portion of the high pressure complex may push that front back to the south resulting in widespread clearing and some sunshine. The outcome is partly dependent on what happens with the distant Atlantic subtropical low that may be making a northward move through the Azores on Friday, so where it decides to go may affect the details of how long the cold high remains in place. Different guidance shows us different scenarios especially for Monday to Wednesday (see below).

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK ... The most likely outcome is a period of generally cold, dry weather with further attempts by the milder Atlantic air to push into parts of the west and south, so that occasional coastal rain and inland sleet or wet snow could redevelop from time to time. However, details are very uncertain. Some parts of the country, notably Leinster and east Ulster, might see considerable dry and frosty weather until about Thursday. It will probably turn a bit milder at some point late in the week, but I have the hunch that quite a strong disturbance will form somewhere near Donegal Bay around the end of next week and there could be increasing signs of a further cold outbreak beyond that (so far models are not catching much of this but as it is two weeks away, that's not surprising to me).

The general picture for BRITAIN, while similar, is now expected to remain quite cold well into next week -- the lurking milder Atlantic air will have enough trouble reaching Ireland to have much strength left for a push into any part of Britain except possibly Cornwall. There will also be quite a strong frontal zone across northern and central France. A few outbreaks of hill snow are likely from Thursday to Saturday, then frontal snow could develop on Sunday in parts of the southwest.

In NORTH AMERICA, the second of two snowfall events in the east turned out to be quite potent, thanks in part to the unusually warm Great Lakes after the very mild December (their temperatures are more typical of mid-December or even late November right now). This beefed up the snow squalls but that system is now fading and a dry cold will follow. Bitterly cold air is moving south to reinforce the colder regime with temperatures as low as -30 C in central Canada. However, it is turning milder on the west coast. Our local weather on Tuesday was mild with rain, and highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 14 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for localized snowfalls of 3 to 6 cms mainly this afternoon and evening in west Ulster and north Connacht. Also ALERT for widespread icy roads developing, most problematic late Thursday to mid-day Saturday. Major well-travelled routes will probably remain fairly good, but less travelled secondary roads will tend to become quite icy especially where snow is packed down by any traffic.

TODAY ... Windy and cold with some sunny intervals for many this morning, mixed wintry showers will tend to be confined to a few areas near the Atlantic coast and in east Ulster. By this afternoon these will begin to spread further south and east, and the chance for accumulating snow will probably reach its greatest by this evening. Some parts of Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim and nearby parts of other counties could see 3-6 cms of snow by midnight (with onset generally mid-afternoon). Elsewhere, snow would probably be isolated and confined to higher north-facing slopes as winds will be NNW 40-70 km/hr. The wintry showers could be blustery at times with hail and thunder possible too, as temperatures begin to fall aloft. That will tend to keep temperatures rather steady from mid-morning to late afternoon, 2 to 5 C for most, 5 to 8 C possible near south coast. Feeling like -2 C or thereabouts in the wind.

TONIGHT ... Some further snow in north Connacht and Ulster, isolated snow showers elsewhere but large areas of clear skies will develop in moderate northwest winds. Lows -2 to +2 C but feeling more like -5 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated wintry showers, still some chance of a slight accumulation in parts of the north and northwest. Northwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr will continue to add chill. Frost and ice may remain present in shaded areas most of the day as highs only reach 1 to 4 C. Icy roads becoming widespread late afternoon and evening.

SATURDAY ... Sharp to severe frost in the morning, sunny despite increasing higher cloud during the day. Winds light as the centre of high pressure drifts slowly east across Ireland. Icy roads widespread especially less travelled routes. Lows -6 to -3 C and highs 1 to 5 C. The latest guidance downplays any precipitation but it could return to forecasts as rain will be not very far off the west coast at times (if it tried to spread inland it could turn to sleet or snow, but this is not currently being shown on most guidance).

SUNDAY ... The cold may linger in parts of Leinster and east Ulster with lows once again reaching -5 C but cloud spreading in during Saturday night will result in temperatures rising after an evening low of about -1 C in some areas of the south and west. Stronger winds will rapidly develop, east to southeast at 50-80 km/hr in exposed parts of west Munster. Rain may follow, with sleet on hills for a while before temperatures warm up. Highs will be as cold as 2 or 3 C in the northeast, and as high as 10 C in Kerry. It will likely be about 4 C in Dublin, 7 C in Cork and Waterford, and 6 C in Galway.

MONDAY ... Foggy or misty with occasional light rain, milder for most although cold air could be trapped in a few valleys especially towards east Ulster. Highs will reach about 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Milder air will probably manage to hold the fort over Ireland but whereas Britain would have similar weather up to Sunday, the cold air will hang on there for several more days and at some point mid to late week it could try to push back to the west. This frontal boundary will become moister by Monday and Tuesday, probably too far east for snow to develop in Ireland although that chance still exists, but with widespread snow in Scotland, northern and central England, and parts of Wales.

Subtropical storm "Alex" was designated earlier, located southwest of the Azores and closing in on those islands late tonight or Friday. It may be changed to a tropical storm (the differences are technical having to do with conditions near the centre) and then an extra-tropical strong low moving north. It will likely curve northwest away from Ireland and towards Greenland and then Labrador, rapidly becoming absorbed by another low coming out of eastern North America as it begins to curve back around to the south. However, this could all change to some other scenario, although at this point there is a lot more agreement among different models than there was a few days ago.

The eastern half of North America continues very cold with snow pushing east, followed by clearing but another weak "clipper" system is following, with the risk of further snow squalls in the Great Lakes region. That is the origin of the low that will eventually push warm fronts through Ireland towards Britain next week. Further west it is quite mild, we had a bit of light rain and partial clearing in the afternoon here, and a high near 11 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 15 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly sunny, cold and breezy to start the day, a few wintry showers in parts of the north and west. These will probably not be as widespread as yesterday and may tend to die out during the afternoon, while a separate area of rain moves southeast across parts of west Munster. About 3-7 mm of rain will fall in a few parts of the southwest, and some sleet or snow could develop on higher terrain in its path as well as during the evening as it departs. Highs today 3 to 6 C, except 8-10 C in coastal Kerry.

TONIGHT ... Clearing skies will allow temperatures to fall further to around -6 to -3 degrees inland, -3 to +1 C in some more temperate spots on the south coast. Be alert for icy roads and some very poor driving conditions that may be encountered here or there depending on fluctuating temperatures and cloud cover.

SATURDAY ... Sharp to severe frost in the morning, sunny intervals despite increasing higher cloud during the day. However, lower cloud layers will spread into some western and northern coastal districts with drizzle or wet snow grains possible, not much accumulation is expected. Winds light as the centre of high pressure drifts slowly east across Ireland, but a light southerly flow will develop in western counties by afternoon. Icy roads widespread especially less travelled routes. Lows -6 to -3 C and highs 1 to 5 C with coldest values in Ulster and north Leinster.

SUNDAY ... The cold may linger in parts of Leinster and east Ulster with lows once again reaching -5 C but cloud spreading in during Saturday night will result in temperatures rising after an evening low of about -1 C in some areas of the south and west. Stronger winds will rapidly develop, east to southeast at 50-80 km/hr in exposed parts of west Munster. Rain may follow by afternoon in the southwest, with sleet on hills for a while before temperatures warm up. Highs will be as cold as 2 or 3 C in the northeast, and as high as 10 C in Kerry. It will likely be about 4 C in Dublin, 7 C in Cork and Waterford, and 6 C in Galway. Although milder on the thermometer, those winds will actually drop the apparent temperature (or wind chill) so that, except for possibly Kerry, it won't feel very mild.

MONDAY ... Foggy or misty with occasional light rain, milder for most although cold air could be trapped in a few valleys especially towards east Ulster. Lows 2 to 4 C and highs will reach about 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY ... The milder air will find its progress blocked to some extent by a reinforcement of cold high pressure edging southward from Iceland towards Scotland and Ulster. This may have only a slight effect on temperatures in most of Ireland while dropping values back several degrees in east Ulster and most of Britain. So, expect cloud, some light rain or sleet on hills, possibly some fog or mist, and highs 5-8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Milder in stages and possibly becoming very windy at times, with occasional bursts of heavier rain, and highs 8-11 C towards the end of the week. There are some indications of a brief wintry interruption around Friday or Saturday (22nd) before a rather volatile pattern develops. I think we may get into another interval of watching very cold air masses massing to the north and speculating about when or if they break through once again.

For BRITAIN, generally slightly colder throughout the forecast period with higher risk of snow during the frontal boundary stall situation early next week.

Meanwhile, "Alex" became a hurricane yesterday and is bearing down on the Azores with winds of 100-140 km/hr, expected to peak around 0900h. The track is now due north and will become north-northwest later today and tonight. This unusual storm will quickly lose tropical characteristics and will merge with low pressure near Newfoundland over the late stages of this weekend. That combined low will then head northeast towards Iceland. The only effects on Ireland will be to energize the fronts moving in on Sunday but then removing most of that energy by Monday which is complicating the forecast challenge for next week. Unless the models are dead wrong, there is no chance of Alex swerving off course towards Ireland. It is the first hurricane to exist in the North Atlantic in January since 1955 and the first to form there since 1938 (the 1955 storm formed on 30 December 1954). There was an un-named tropical storm in January 1978. All of these other storms were westward-moving storms at lower latitudes than Alex has now reached. There was also Tropical Storm Zeta at the tail end of the 2005 season which persisted into January.

My local weather on Thursday was mild and partly cloudy with highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 16 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for icy road conditions in some inland counties, it may be 1030h or later before all of this ice clears, with least travelled routes probably the last to lose their surface ice -- be aware of the black ice potential as temperatures were actually colder several hours ago in some places where cloud has increased.


TODAY ... Becoming mostly cloudy, any local ice or fog should dissipate gradually and it will become slightly milder with light winds, drizzly light rain possible around north coast Ulster, later moving southeast to cover parts of east Ulster. Highs 4 to 7 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, milder with moderate southeast winds developing, lows -1 to +4 C and perhaps a bit higher in west Munster.

SUNDAY ... Overcast, some fog and light rain developing in southwest by mid-day, spreading slowly north and east by evening. Heavier rain may develop by evening. Highs 6-8 C for most, 8-11 C west Munster. Winds will increase to southeast 50-70 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Rain ending (15-25 mm totals mostly overnight) with some lingering drizzle and fog, partial clearing in west, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Overcast, foggy or misty in some regions, light rain or drizzle at times, lows 3-6 C and highs 6-9 C but possibly 10-12 C south coast.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Mild, occasionally wet and windy, later in the week. At this point any chance of colder air pushing back to the west look fairly limited to perhaps northeast England and eastern Scotland around Tuesday, so this would not reach any part of Ireland, but models may continue to adjust on this detail.

My local weather on Friday was overcast and mild with a few intervals of very light rain, highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 17 January, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with light rain developing in the south and west, slowly spreading further north and east by afternoon. Rain becoming heavier late in the day. Winds increasing to southeast 50-70 km/hr.Highs 7-9 C for most and 9-11 C near south coast.

TONIGHT ... Heavier rain moving into the east while tapering off to drizzle in the west. Total rainfalls 15-25 mm and lows 4-7 C. Foggy especially over higher terrain.

OUTLOOK ... I am just posting a brief update from a remote location so will just say that I have checked the model runs and continue to see mostly mild and occasionally wet weather over the next week, highs usually in the 8-10 C range. There are mixed signals for the period starting next weekend, it may eventually turn colder again before the end of this month.

My local weather about 100 kms east of my usual location is foggy and mild with light rain and 6 deg C.

I will likely miss one day of forecasts (Monday) if anyone wishes to have a go, then I hope to be back on Tuesday.

200motels

18 January 2016

Today
Cloudy with rain at times today with some heavy bursts in the south, temps ranging from 6C to 9 C.

Tonight

Cool enough tonight with further rain in the south and west, temps 1C to a high of 5C with patchy frost in places where it is dry.


Outlook

A fairly mixed bag for the rest of the week with temps normal or a little below, tomorrow cloudy at first but dryer later temps 6C to 10C in light south easterly wind.
Wednesday and Thursday dry and bright in most places except along the west coast where patchy rain will occur, some patchy frost at night, becoming windy on Thursday night and wet on Friday but also becoming very mild. The weekend looks at the moment mild with some rain at times but dry brighter periods also. Windy at times but frosts unlikely. Further on it's hard to predict but looking at the latest model runs it should stay mild with rain at times with no serious cold on the horizon.