Racing Post Money Printing Thread - Mod note post 1572

POINTBREAK

Pricewise Extra October Monday-Friday ONLY
3 losers (MC)(AB)(MC)
1 placed (16/1-10/1) (MWill)
1 Winner (13/2-7/1)(AB)

Present Sequence....................... l LOSER
Profit/Loss@SP ..................Plus 5
Profit/Loss@AdvisedPrice... PLUS 5.7pts

Seanohea

Many positives suggest Accede is no 16-1 shot
Accede
3.20 Newbury
1pt each-way at 16-1 with Coral
Looks overpriced given her proven form on soft ground, an excellent record at Newbury, the best last-time-out Topspeed figure, and the booking of Ryan Moore, writes Mel Collier.

RELATED LINKS

• » 3.20 Newbury card

She was a soft ground Newbury winner at two years old, and has been beaten a nostril in two course and distance seconds (in class 4 handicaps, like today’s) this summer.
Her profile is one of quiet progression, and when the mud starts flying in the autumn its often best to favour battle-hardened horses that have been there and done it, rather than the lightly-raced ‘potential’ horses.

Accede
Newbury - 3:20

14

mike65

4.45 Worcester - Balrath Leader is the other

Seanohea

Balrath likely to make better chaser than hurdler
Balrath Leader
4.45 Worcester
1pt win at 12-1 with Betfred and Stan James
Irish-trained horses have been doing well in lower grade British jumps handicaps recently, and Balrath Leader looks an interesting runner in this novices' handicap chase, writes Mel Collier.

RELATED LINKS

• » 4.45 Worcester card

Her breeding (by Supreme Leader out of a Strong Gale mare), her hurdles form (including at Kilbeggan, where they use the upright plastic hurdles that look like mini fences), her recent point to point win, and her attitude all suggest she is going to make a better chaser than hurdler.
Like a lot of proto-chasers she lacked a turn of foot at the end of hurdle races which costs her dear – especially against the ex-Flat types – but she is a really willing battler and that spirit is obviously a useful asset switched to fences.

Balrath Leader
Worcester - 4:45

mike65

I got 12s and 8s, the stated price is impossible to get.

trader666

i got 16/1 corals acced small amount, and full amount 12/1 on other horse, the selections were online website at about 11.57am maybe even 11.56....20secs is everthing in this market..buy!! buy!! buy!!

Seanohea

It is fairly impossible to get the advised price, i use betfair, i find at least with betfair it takes a little bit longer for the price to drop than any bookies. Mel Collier needs one to go in

Seanohea

Yeah, that's true trader666, they were on fairly early today, hopefully that happens at the weekend too. If i was calling the premium line i'd be pissed off, the selections are barely available on the phone at 12, more often a minute past, at that stage price is trotally gone

POINTBREAK

Have a look at this..........
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/newbury/15:20/bet-history/accede/today

On Betfair the price on Accede started to go at 10.44 am when it was 23. 9 minutes later it was 15.5

It was down to 12 at 11.04

Back to 16 at 11-35

And at 12-01 it was 11.

The conclusion must be that the boys in the RacingPost office all start backing it at 10.44 and then laying it back in the next 20 minutes or so. Nice work if you can get it.

markhiggins

alright lads...i read this forum everyday and have the odd flutter on the PWE tip but what you boys are talking about now gets me prety excited. potentially there is alot of money to be made by backing at the longer price and then laying it. Ive registered to the tipping on the post website and have accounts with betfair and paddys, any other advice you can give before i get going? what sort of bankroll would you suggest for starting off?

POINTBREAK

markhiggins wrote: »

alright lads...i read this forum everyday and have the odd flutter on the PWE tip but what you boys are talking about now gets me prety excited. potentially there is alot of money to be made by backing at the longer price and then laying it. Ive registered to the tipping on the post website and have accounts with betfair and paddys, any other advice you can give before i get going? what sort of bankroll would you suggest for starting off?

Its called arbitration or arb betting and people have been doing it since betfair began. The biggest problem is getting on with the bookies and the main danger is if the price contracts and then drifts before you have layed it. Your best bet is to try it for a few weeks with a small bank you can afford to lose before you do anything exciting. Its not as easy as it looks.

POINTBREAK

Mark. You also need more bookmaker accounts. PaddyPower were first to cut the price on the PWE Tip yesterday and while I dont know if that is usual you need at least 3 or 4 accounts.
It would be interesting if you could let us know how it goes.

markhiggins

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Mark. You also need more bookmaker accounts. PaddyPower were first to cut the price on the PWE Tip yesterday and while I dont know if that is usual you need at least 3 or 4 accounts.
It would be interesting if you could let us know how it goes.

ye i will of course, ill just post things up here, ye im looking at bet 365 and william hill too, ill sort that out later on. got one of my mates on board so will split profits so we can have a bit more money getting started. Probably go for a low stakes test run on saturday, i dont think there is enough of a drop in prices on the weekdays but there are some ridiculous ones on the weekends and hopefully we will get a slice of that!

Seanohea

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Have a look at this..........
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/newbury/15:20/bet-history/accede/today

On Betfair the price on Accede started to go at 10.44 am when it was 23. 9 minutes later it was 15.5

It was down to 12 at 11.04

Back to 16 at 11-35

And at 12-01 it was 11.

The conclusion must be that the boys in the RacingPost office all start backing it at 10.44 and then laying it back in the next 20 minutes or so. Nice work if you can get it.

Thats a good point, i've noticed on a few times on friday nights, a couple of the best backed horses are pricewises picks for saturday, no coincidence there i think, lads in the racing post office and not to mention the lads working wherever the paper gets printed the night before taking advantage

POINTBREAK

Years ago a friend of mine who worked for a big bookmaking firm in the UK told me they paid the printer to get the pricewise tips early.
I was looking at Betfair to see if there was any indication of market movers but I havent come across any yet. It would be priceless to have all the tips before anyone else.

POINTBREAK

Pricewise Extra October Monday-Friday ONLY
5 losers (MC)(AB)(MC))(MC))(MC)


1 placed (16/1-10/1) (MWill)
1 Winner (13/2-7/1)(AB)

Present Sequence....................... 3 LOSERS
Profit/Loss@SP ..................Plus 3
Profit/Loss@AdvisedPrice... PLUS 3.7pts

Mel C should go back to the Spice Girls....

POINTBREAK

A few nice touches today for the punters. Dai Burchells two 11/1 to 5/1 and 11/1 to 7/2 both won. Swift Chap 15 on Betfair at 10-30 wins at 11/2.

Seanohea

Mel collier's record is terrible, i think he barely covers himself, if he does at all, they should try and give Matt Williams 2 days to see how he gets on

POINTBREAK

Seanohea wrote: »

Mel collier's record is terrible, i think he barely covers himself, if he does at all, they should try and give Matt Williams 2 days to see how he gets on

I'm glad I started keeping a record of who tips each one. Collier was good about 10 years ago, but he seems to have lost it the last 4 or 5 years. I am not familiar with Barr or Williams record, so it will be interesting to see how they do over the next few months.

essexman

Makes you wonder whether Segal will start losing his touch at some stage :eek:

winslow

POINTBREAK wrote: »

I'm glad I started keeping a record of who tips each one. Collier was good about 10 years ago, but he seems to have lost it the last 4 or 5 years. I am not familiar with Barr or Williams record, so it will be interesting to see how they do over the next few months.

I'm not sure if it was you, but someone mentioned that when Pricewise (or maybe pricewise Extra) tipped a horse at long odds, often the favourite would win instead. I had noticed that trend myself previously, but haven't followed much recently.

Is there any way you can keep an eye for this and see if it is an actual trend?

garyjw2

winslow wrote: »

I'm not sure if it was you, but someone mentioned that when Pricewise (or maybe pricewise Extra) tipped a horse at long odds, often the favourite would win instead. I had noticed that trend myself previously, but haven't followed much recently.

Is there any way you can keep an eye for this and see if it is an actual trend?

hello ive been following pricewise for a long time on and off and have been following pricewise extra i will tell you this he is a lot better on flat than jumps and i would like to bet that most of pricewise extra profit will be saturday and sunday from may till end of september follow tom segal then and you will not go wrong

POINTBREAK

winslow wrote: »

I'm not sure if it was you, but someone mentioned that when Pricewise (or maybe pricewise Extra) tipped a horse at long odds, often the favourite would win instead. I had noticed that trend myself previously, but haven't followed much recently.

Is there any way you can keep an eye for this and see if it is an actual trend?

I think I was making the point previously that the Pricewise horses skew the market to such an extent that the favourite can become the value bet. It might be interesting to keep a track of that.The whole rationale of pricewise is value. My point is that if a horse is tipped at 16/1 it isnt automatically value at 8/1, but the favourite would be a much shorter price if pricewise didnt tip in the race and it therefore could become the value bet.

POINTBREAK

Yesterday I metioned the market moves for the pricewise horses that occur 30 minutes before the tip is released. Obviously from inside information. I have been trying to work out if there is any way of tracking that, but there doesnt seem to be any way of doing it because its impossible to monitor all the races on betfair. However I imagine that the tips today could come in the 3-20 and 4-30 YORK races. So I am keeping an eye on those 2 races.

garyjw2

Seanohea wrote: »

Mel collier's record is terrible, i think he barely covers himself, if he does at all, they should try and give Matt Williams 2 days to see how he gets on

i have also been a member of mel colliers old tipping service it was rubbish so i think you can discard his pricewise extra tips

garyjw2

trader666 wrote: »

stand james allowed 500GBP at 13/2, betbryne 200 euros 13/2, coral 500 GBP 13/2...lads 500 6/1....then odds crashed...
selection was up alittle earlier today which helped well before 12 noon on the racepost website

im told canbet are a high rollers bookmaker will alllow many thousands on a bet but as of yet market is always suspended when i get there...one day...one day i live in hope

i have enjoyed what you have had to say and the advice on how to get the pricewise extra bets but i found that in betting office if i tryed to get on say 100 pounds on a 8 to 1 alarm bells start ringing and when you get a couple of winners thay start ringing up there main office and then say you can have 50 at the price

mike65

YORK 5.00 Veiled Applause. 13/2

POINTBREAK

garyjw2 wrote: »

i have enjoyed what you have had to say and the advice on how to get the pricewise extra bets but i found that in betting office if i tryed to get on say 100 pounds on a 8 to 1 alarm bells start ringing and when you get a couple of winners thay start ringing up there main office and then say you can have 50 at the price

Thats exactly what happens to me. Stanley Racing turned me down flat for a £100 bet one time on a 9/1 chance. They would even give me SP.

POINTBREAK

mike65 wrote: »

YORK 5.00 Veiled Applause. 13/2

I wonder who tipped it?

Seanohea

Veiled Applause
5.00 York
1pt win 15-2 Betfred, Skybet

John Quinn is always a man to fear in handicaps, especially when he has one weighted to win and Veiled Applause certainly fits the bill in the closing race at York (5.00) today.

RELATED LINKS

• » 5.00 York race card

The six-year-old is nothing out of the ordinary, but he is currently 6lb lower in the weights compared to his latest success on the Flat at Ripon well over a year ago and although his losing sequence is lengthy, he hinted at a return to winning form over 1m at Ayr last month.
Let's not forget he was running some fair races earlier in the season off a mark in the mid-80's and you have to wonder how much lower he can get before he scores for his supporters. He is effective between 1m-1m2f and it appears he doesn't want extremes of going.
Having a good apprentice on your side is important in these races and if the horse is good enough, the jockey won't let us down.
Golden Button is unexposed and could easily be better than the rest, but both her best runs have been on the polytrack at Wolverhampton, which is enough to put me off at the prices.

Veiled Applause
York - 17:00

11/2