BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

Value Hunter

euroboom13 wrote: »

Its a mad world and a.i.b. has valuation of 72B yet a state free safe bank is worth 9b.not saying a.i.b. is worth 72b but am saying I wouldn't cap boi especially when Richie see`s 33billion of new loans by2017.What sp will you allow yourself to believe then????

I wouldn't believe a word out of Richies mouth, why is he waiting to 2017 to start loans? Irish businesses are crying out for loans, as are potential homeowners.

Disagree with this statement??

Are people not looking for loans now?

Why wait 3 years??? Pardon my french, but he's talking ****e

Richies saying the typical corporate line, everything will be perfect three years down the line (yet its always delayed another 3 years and so on)

This banking crisis started 6 years ago, the fact they still havn't sorted their own house should speak volumes to any potential investor

intellectual dosser

Value Hunter wrote: »

I wouldn't believe a word out of Richies mouth, why is he waiting to 2017 to start loans? Irish businesses are crying out for loans, as are potential homeowners.

Disagree with this statement??

Are people not looking for loans now?

Quoting the article on the Irish Times website.

It will include €12 billion in fresh lending to SMEs over the next three years and about €13 billion in new mortgages over the timeframe of the plan. The balance will comprise other consumer and corporate lending.

It's not that they wont be lending a cent until 2017, the lending will start now and will accumulate to 33bn by the end of 2017. So people looking for loans now can apply.

You are right though to say that for now it's just words - we need to watch for the execution.

Value Hunter

intellectual dosser wrote: »

Quoting the article on the Irish Times website.



It's not that they wont be lending a cent until 2017, the lending will start now and will accumulate to 33bn by the end of 2017. So people looking for loans now can apply.

You are right though to say that for now it's just words - we need to watch for the execution.

Your final sentence is the key here,


For the last few years the banks have being very loud and public about their loan support to business and first time homeowners, the reality is the polar opposite.

All they care about is improving their capital reserves/loan 'quality' for satisfying tier 1 requirements

euroboom13

Definitely a lot of "if buts and Ands", ones that I am totally aware of.

But, if plans do materialise and bank of Ireland survives to 2017, with an expanded loan book and a recovered loan book, and since we are all investing in the futures market, WHAT sp or market capitol would be permissible to your logic!

Mine says an optimistic target of 50/60b or 150c/200c ,and since I am not risking any capitol that I need ,and won't get any interest in the bank, and since I don't believe another crash is coming, and can see dividend driven sp coming, I will go long.

You my friend may agree next year or the year after, but there will be no penny`s beneath your feet than!

Well done on your foreign investments(vh and carefull with the $), don't miss the gold at your front door ,good luck to all !

Axel Lamp

This thread has gone quiet lately.

Price now at 33cents (.328).

Thoughts?

Thronegames

I saw boi at 34c at one stage today. I also saw P/E at about 64 times earnings. I sold AIB this morning as its valuation based on share price is about twice the size of Irish GNP. I laughed when selling. But who is buying ; and why? Bigger question re BOI.:Over the last month or so the volume of trades has been in the tens of millions. What on earth is going on? And that's per day! Like I checked at about midday and 23 m sharea had changed hands. Even given the s/p and market cap etc there is something very unusual about the volume on the ISE. Cn anyone enlighten me?

euroboom13

Thronegames wrote: »

I saw boi at 34c at one stage today. I also saw P/E at about 64 times earnings. I sold AIB this morning as its valuation based on share price is about twice the size of Irish GNP. I laughed when selling. But who is buying ; and why? Bigger question re BOI.:Over the last month or so the volume of trades has been in the tens of millions. What on earth is going on? And that's per day! Like I checked at about midday and 23 m sharea had changed hands. Even given the s/p and market cap etc there is something very unusual about the volume on the ISE. Cn anyone enlighten me?[/QUOTE

B O I `s hasn`t been in any position for earnings over the past 7yrs , but it has restructured and it would seem its future p/e is where the value is.Recovery play not to be invested in on current p/e,but future value is massive.A.i.b. is in a bubble due to small number of shares trading.

Lord TSC

Bought in at 24 ages back, before it crashed down and started rising back up.

Not sure when I should bail though; would hate to jump ship only for it to keep going up. How high do people think it could go?

Thronegames

All I can see is BOI restructuring and expectation that it will return to profit very soon. I'm up approx. 12% on this and I bought in based on market sentiment rather than fundamentals, really. I get the impression that international investors see this stock as a fundamental play on the recovery of the Irish economy. Whilst the current fundamentals are poor, as long as Ireland Inc continues to be seen favourably by investors then this one IMO may continue to rise.

As pointed out by the last poster, AIB is in a "bubble" and maybe the same with ptsb. I see BOI as a complete market sentiment play and will be watching carefully 'til I see the first chicken comes home to roost; i.e. until reality dawns on the market.

wired117

I would expect the government to get AIB to cancel most of shares to zero value.. The 70B+ valuation is not the actual valuation, it is closer 6-7BN. I have said this before,AIB I believe cannot be fully nationalised as to do so would mean that losses endured are crystallised and raises questions on why not nationalised previously.

Thronegames

wired117 wrote: »

I would expect the government to get AIB to cancel most of shares to zero value.. The 70B+ valuation is not the actual valuation, it is closer 6-7BN. I have said this before,AIB I believe cannot be fully nationalised as to do so would mean that losses endured are crystallised and raises questions on why not nationalised previously.

wired 117 I really appreciate your reply and it is so hard to make sense of what's going on. I sold AIB after reading an Irish Times article about how the current share price represents a ridiculous valuation for the company. Can you please explain why the share price is rising (very slowly) and why anyone would buy it at this level? I'm holding on to BOI shares as I'm 15% up. I am recently returned to the market. I would appreciate your opinion on these shares and I'm still trying to make sense of what's happening.

Can you recommend any sites that might give me insight into what's really happening re stocks and indices? Impossible to get any intelligent analysis I find! Thank you.

lucky john

No one can tell where boi is heading with any certainly. One thing for sure, it's not a boring share to own. Just read back this thread. An interesting thing is the way it's moving ahead on the nyse (IRE). It should be closer to 36c here going by nyse.

I saw on another sites forum where members are running a book on the price in a couple of months time and one on when it will break 50c. None on when it will hit 20c though. I guess share owners are optimists by nature.

daheff

Seeing as sensible valuations and Irish banking stocks dont seem to be in tune these days, anybody care to venture a guess as to what BOI /AIB/PTSB will finish at in end june/end dec? Here are my guesses

End June
AIB 15c
BOI 42c
PTSB 10c

End Dec
AIB 12c
BOI 50c
PTSB 12.5c

alexlyons

Interesting figures daheff.

I appreciate they're just guesses but with BOI rising 20% (6.4c) in the past 10 days or so and closing at 36.4c today what do you expect to happen to them in the next 17 weeks?

Thronegames

daheff wrote: »

Seeing as sensible valuations and Irish banking stocks dont seem to be in tune these days, anybody care to venture a guess as to what BOI /AIB/PTSB will finish at in end june/end dec? Here are my guesses

End June
AIB 15c
BOI 42c
PTSB 10c

End Dec
AIB 12c
BOI 50c
PTSB 12.5c

I have been vilified on another thread by this guy who is a whizz-kid at trading and I guess he would not be at all impressed by 'guessing' as a basis for taking any position in the market. I've done limited research but life is for fun and I don't take the stock market seriously at all. I've been in and out of AIB and PTSB over the last 4 months and am in profit. I am holding BoI as I'm up about 20% so I can just sit and watch for a while. Oh before I cast my guesses I would seriously look at other threads about AIB. The market has a crazy valuation on this share; about 10 times the value of BOI? something like that. Anyway, unlike others I don't take this at all seriously, but here are my guesses:

June 2014:

AIB: 5C
BOI: 40C
PTSB: 2C

I'm enjoying my second foray into the market but I see it really like the Galway Races. Just fun and I would never depend on a bunch of horses for retirement income.

Seamus1964

June 2014:

AIB: 10C
BOI: 45C
PTSB: 8C

daheff

alexlyons wrote: »

Interesting figures daheff.

I appreciate they're just guesses but with BOI rising 20% (6.4c) in the past 10 days or so and closing at 36.4c today what do you expect to happen to them in the next 17 weeks?

I don't have anything concrete to back up my claim other than my feel of the market (seeing as fundamentals are out the window at the moment).

With there being a more positive view of Ireland/property MKT & these banks exposed to property then any improvement will be to their gain (improved balance sheets).

Of them all boi are the ones that will look best. I reckon by year end people will cop on to aib a bit and the price will drop back.

As I said, its all my opinion and I'm prob going to be wrong :-)

Thronegames

Sure for me now the stock market is a bit of fun. Yes I'm invested but watching my ass! I really think the key phrase in your last post is about fundamentals being out the window. Like BOI seems like it might be realistic in the L/T but aib and ptsb....very long shots IMO. However I'm wrong a lot of the time. This is pure Galway Races territory for me and I sure as hell will not be up during the night worrying about it.

Does anyone have an idea what exactly is the forward P/E ratio (1 year) for each of the above three stocks?

manonboard

sold out of BOI today at peak. 36cent.

They have had a very steep rise recently for such a financial company. I don't see any fundamentals pushing the change or any good news yet. So I am expecting a pull back.

If it happens. Ill buy back in. If it doesn't. I am satisfied with my 25% profit the last few weeks.

Thronegames

manonboard wrote: »

sold out of BOI today at peak. 36cent.

They have had a very steep rise recently for such a financial company. I don't see any fundamentals pushing the change or any good news yet. So I am expecting a pull back.

If it happens. Ill buy back in. If it doesn't. I am satisfied with my 25% profit the last few weeks.

Yep good move. You would not get a tenth of that in the bank. I'm holding though for the moment. I think annual report due sometime in March. What's the forward P/E do you know?

manonboard

I don't know.

I read the current is over 60. That to me was a bit of shocker. I know we are looking at this stock long term but a 60 is due for a sharp dip I believe.

It seems the buzz about boi is back again as I have non investy friends asking about it again. I'm of the opinion that this is on that part of the curve where it hits a new high and then crashes again.

I think boi is a winner long term though. It's linked to the irish recovery. However, with the US fed stimulus package being curtailed, I believe there will be more than the usual sizeable ups and downs.

lucky john

I have brought and sold boi profitably on the way down but decided to hold long term since 2009. I have averaged down since then to now need € 0.375 to break even. I expect to hit that point on Wednesday. The problem then is going to be that at that level the temptation for the big guys to sell and make a fortune might be hard for them to resist. One sell trade this evening at 4.30 was for 10,000.000 shares. It didn't affect the price but I would expect to see even bigger sell trades before close on Friday. In fact Michael Noonan might be tempted. 31c was his break even so he stands to make a nice profit on our behalf.

On Monday morning when FY results are announced I believe they will be good. Boucher and Ross have been hinting they will be. It could be hype but Ross is holding so he must be confident. The results will be well analysed and I think by the end of next week we will be 40c+.

I think its very hard to know after that. Small investors will be piling in but again its the big guys that matter. At some stage soon BoI will be treated as a proper functioning company and not a risky penny stock. At that stage fundamentals will start to matter again. On Monday we will have a better idea of PE, EPS ect. If PE is around 60 then its not sustainable in the medium term so it may stall the share price untill profits catch up and a sensible valuation is restored. Its possible the price could stay around 40c for a while. As a long term investor I would be happy with that. If the foundation is well laid in 2014 I believe the rewards will be reaped in 2015 and beyond.

Like anyone else on here I have no crystal ball (unfortunately). This is just my opinion

Seamus1964

lucky john wrote: »

...If the foundation is well laid in 2014 I believe the rewards will be reaped in 2015 and beyond...

That is exactly right! You took the words right out of my mouth!

Stoko

Would you guys use CFD for speculating on BKIR (BOI) or buy "real" shares?
I am opening an account in cmc markets and plan to try BKIR CFD.
Would you suggest some better place or maybe an easy way I can buy shares?

daheff

Stoko wrote: »

Would you guys use CFD for speculating on BKIR (BOI) or buy "real" shares?
I am opening an account in cmc markets and plan to try BKIR CFD.
Would you suggest some better place or maybe an easy way I can buy shares?

Personally for low priced stocks like this, I wouldnt buy CFDs. With the spread you need to make a lot of points /put a lot of money in to make money - but i suppose its all relative

You need to look at how much you are going to put in -what that would get you. Look at your costs...how much will it cost to get in & out of a position (shares are probably more expensive at a smaller investment, but you can hold them as long as you want. CFDs generally have a finite time period (same with futures)).

CFDs you can end up owing more than you invested, get hit with cash payments if the investment falls in value (at reset points)..etc.

Thronegames

Stoko wrote: »

Would you guys use CFD for speculating on BKIR (BOI) or buy "real" shares?
I am opening an account in cmc markets and plan to try BKIR CFD.
Would you suggest some better place or maybe an easy way I can buy shares?

I haven't got to spreadbetting yet. I opened an online account with Davy last Nov. and find it so quick and easy to use. Bit of paperwork getting set up. There are cheaper brokers out there but Davy Select charge 80e per year and 14.99 per transaction and I'm happy with them. Are you going long or short on BKIR? I'm holding myself but just about holding my nerve at the moment. I believe announcement of results imminent next week and my fingeri is hovering over the sell trigger at the moment. A lot of very big trades going through in the last coupla days; investors butying and selling €0.5 million worth at a time. Sharewatch site shows details of trades. Hope this is of some use.

lucky john

Well that was an interesting day. Apart from 25m shares sold at 4.30 the big players have held. NYSC has still to close but there must be an expectation of very good results on Monday. Of course it could be buy on the rumer sell on the news. Another day of action to come Monday I expect.

displaced dub

im up 159.29% now and im here for the long run, invested 10k. now worth 26k

After yesterday im transferring another 5k into my dealing account and im going to sit on it and watch for a little while, as sure as the sun rises in the east its going to fall back a bit.

eamonn147

im considering purchasing aib shares about 3k worth and hoping they weill rise in the fuiture do u see this happening???or what about ptsb

Thronegames

I sold aib recently as the info I have is that they are way over-valued at current price. Did the same with ptsb. Also sold BOI last Wed. I decided to take my profits in all and not be too greedy! As I was up 40% on BOI I thought that was reasonable. BOI results out tomorrow and if they fall significantly I will buy again. AIB price indicates P/E ratio of 60+ which is a crazy valuation IMO. All just my opinion - not giving advice!