BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

lucky john

Value Hunter wrote: »

When Wilbur Ross sold his shares he did it at a 10% discount to the share price at the time, you's should all have a think as to why would a professional investor sell for less than than the stock was trading for publicly...

WR hasn't made any profit on his boi investment yet. As a board member he does have the one piece of information that the rest of us are quesstimating, the need for extra capital or not to cover bad loans. If he had sold 100% of his shares and walked away with a billion plus profit who would blame him. If he sold 50% and made a fantastic profit in a couple of years hewould have been dead right. But he did neither. He covered his investment only even thought he knew selling at 33c would take the share price back from a 39c high. Surley that's a major vote of confidance rather than the great escape you imagine.

While investment fund managers are not infallible we have to assume they know something about picking companies with potential. They paid 33c for a sizable investment in boi so they surely expect a return on that over time. That tells me 30...35c is a fair price for boi now with potential to grow over time. Another vote of confidence in my eyes.

Of course Russia and China and other external events will screw thing up from time to time but if the core business is been slowly placed on a sound footing for future growth. Is that not a Value Hunters dream investment? ???

pool_shark

Value Hunter wrote: »

If he's so desperate to dump his stock that he takes a 10% discount it doesn't show much confidence for further gains, the fact it has decline 20%- 25% in two weeks shows why he was so keen to jump ship.

What professional investor sells for 10% less than the trading price?

when you own as much stock as ross did , you cant simply click on " sell " like I do on my goodbody online platform and even you could , the stock would crash in a wave of panic

ross had to flag his intentions , obviously the stock went down off the back of this announcement , that he only sold a minority stake shows he has confidence in the bank going forward

Thronegames

I see. So Ross made a very calculated sale of a specific amount of shares at a carefully calculated price and at a carefully calculated time. Volume and price sufficient not to panic the market. Carefully done. SP dropped obviously but not catastrophically.

I've been in and out twice at profit. I was so clever. I sold before the results and in the day afterwards my partner asked me "well, what happened after all with BOI?" I replied "nothing!" So I bought again that evening at 37c. Then along comes the big Ross sale! I'm down 15% on this last trade and reviewing my strategy. Maybe close my eyes and wake up next year?!

Some people believe this is a 'bubble' stock and is over-valued. Others believe it should perform in the long term. I was right in 2002 about the property bubble in Ireland but we're in different territory now?

Value Hunter

There was no obligation to sell 10% in one go, he could have slowly sold his holdings.

Any money manager who willingly takes a 10% haircut is doing it because their in a mad panic to sell. The goal of investing is to make money, not give away 10% of your holdings for free! Screams warning signs to me.

lucky john

Value Hunter wrote: »

There was no obligation to sell 10% in one go, he could have slowly sold his holdings.

Any money manager who willingly takes a 10% haircut is doing it because their in a mad panic to sell. The goal of investing is to make money, not give away 10% of your holdings for free! Screams warning signs to me.

If he was in a mad panic to sell then why agree to a 90 day lock in where he can't sell any more shares. That would make no sence to a guy desperate to get his money out of any investment. Like I said already, he still hasn't made any profit.

euroboom13

Value Hunter wrote: »

There was no obligation to sell 10% in one go, he could have slowly sold his holdings.

Any money manager who willingly takes a 10% haircut is doing it because their in a mad panic to sell. The goal of investing is to make money, not give away 10% of your holdings for free! Screams warning signs to me.

Your impression of strategy is based on greed, when you have wealth it is more important to overrule this emotion,i am sure Wilbur ross has, you on the other hand have a very panicked driven greedy view! Which should make your HUNT for real VALUE very difficult. Be brave ,go long, value is now!!gla:)

Farmer Pudsey

Value Hunter wrote: »

There was no obligation to sell 10% in one go, he could have slowly sold his holdings.

Any money manager who willingly takes a 10% haircut is doing it because their in a mad panic to sell. The goal of investing is to make money, not give away 10% of your holdings for free! Screams warning signs to me.

As a bank board member even if he only sold one share he has to inform the stock exchange. He also has a limited window in that he may not sell at certain times of year(before half yearly and year end results I think) or if in possession of market information. I know this was ignored in Ireland (the case of DCC and Fyffes). However Ross is more aware of US law.

The other Ross (Shane) is advising people to sell as he expects them to collapse. I have found that over the years the exact opposite was a better option.

If at any stage you put a large percentage of shares on the market you will expect to take a price deduction. There is exceptions where another company buys to make a stragetic bid. Even when the Government goes to sell it stake in both banks it will have to take a 10-20% discount. This was the same when it sold Telecom Eireann and Aer Lingus. It is the same with IPO's of tech company's etc.

Value Hunter

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

As a bank board member even if he only sold one share he has to inform the stock exchange. He also has a limited window in that he may not sell at certain times of year(before half yearly and year end results I think) or if in possession of market information. I know this was ignored in Ireland (the case of DCC and Fyffes). However Ross is more aware of US law.

The other Ross (Shane) is advising people to sell as he expects them to collapse. I have found that over the years the exact opposite was a better option.

If at any stage you put a large percentage of shares on the market you will expect to take a price deduction. There is exceptions where another company buys to make a stragetic bid. Even when the Government goes to sell it stake in both banks it will have to take a 10-20% discount. This was the same when it sold Telecom Eireann and Aer Lingus. It is the same with IPO's of tech company's etc.

Within 3 - 5 working days if i'm correct.

Still you have to ask yourself's guys......

He sold 33% of his holdings...... and at a 10% discount

Does this not scream that the stock is overvalued???

Why would he not hold and slowly sell, make himself a extra €100 million euro??

Farmer Pudsey

Value Hunter wrote: »

Within 3 - 5 working days if i'm correct.

Still you have to ask yourself's guys......

He sold 33% of his holdings...... and at a 10% discount

Does this not scream that the stock is overvalued???

Why would he not hold and slowly sell, make himself a extra €100 million euro??

Listen we will agree to differ. IMO you lack basic understanding the way markets works. You have this idea that he was panicing. If he was fearful of the stock being seriously overvalued or there was serious issues with the bank or Irish economy, he have dumped all his stake at a 10% or even 30% discount. He is hedging his bets. Taking out most if not all of the money he has invested. He may want it to invest in another project that will make a return like BOI.

For that matter he may want it to go on the batter for a few weeks.

euroboom13

Value Hunter wrote: »

Within 3 - 5 working days if i'm correct.

Still you have to ask yourself's guys......

He sold 33% of his holdings...... and at a 10% discount

Does this not scream that the stock is overvalued???

Why would he not hold and slowly sell, make himself a extra €100 million euro??

You hear good bye ,I hear good buy... time will tell

donkey_breath

any talk of the government falling will his BOI as confidence in the political stability of the nation is paramount to investor confidence

aristotle25

donkey_breath wrote: »

any talk of the government falling will his BOI as confidence in the political stability of the nation is paramount to investor confidence

What?

bishop_bling

aristotle25 wrote: »

What?

I think he might have meant " hit " BOI

I completely agree , the likes of Wilbur ross pointed to the huge difference between Ireland and the likes of Greece when it came to the stability of the state , this government took office in 2011 with a huge majority and this in turn boosted investor confidence

in the event of a general election , sinn fein are a real possibility as part of a coalition , this would seriously spook investor confidence

lucky john

bishop_bling wrote: »

I think he might have meant " hit " BOI

I completely agree , the likes of Wilbur ross pointed to the huge difference between Ireland and the likes of Greece when it came to the stability of the state , this government took office in 2011 with a huge majority and this in turn boosted investor confidence

in the event of a general election , sinn fein are a real possibility as part of a coalition , this would seriously spook investor confidence

I don't believe we will have an election until next summer at the earliest. It has to before February 2016 but they are unlikely to wait for a winter campaign. So the budget will be the main date considered. If things are poor and there needs to be more cuts imposed then it will be a pre budget election. If they can even cut taxes a bit in a budget then they will call it straight after. My money is autumn 2015

There's a big cabinet reshuffle to come yet as well so backbenchers will all be behaving themselves until June anyway.

Farmer Pudsey

lucky john wrote: »

I don't believe we will have an election until next summer at the earliest. It has to before February 2016 but they are unlikely to wait for a winter campaign. So the budget will be the main date considered. If things are poor and there needs to be more cuts imposed then it will be a pre budget election. If they can even cut taxes a bit in a budget then they will call it straight after. My money is autumn 2015

There's a big cabinet reshuffle to come yet as well so backbenchers will all be behaving themselves until June anyway.

If the economy continues to improve they might wait until after the 2016 budget(late Sept/early Oct 2015) so a l;ate October election. Other choice would be early September 2015. Cannot see an election before then.

Thronegames

Govt at some stage will follow W Ross and sell a stake. Forget Gen Election. Sell in advance of local elections by Noonan to boost Coalition profile? All short term stuff tho. Check out www.lse.co.uk. There's a cozy Irish expat club going on and they don't take kindly to newcomers but the chat is funny and enlightening! Also very specific to BKIR and some great posts.

I'm holding this for next 1 to 2 years as part of diverse portfolio. I have bought and sold twice at 25% up on each occasion and bought again after results at 37c. Nothing happened after results, so I bought again. Now I'm down about 20% on that trade but still in profit overall. I will hold for 2 years. SP would need to crash for me to average down. I'm a contrarian gambler so 15c would be my next entry point.

Rationale: BOI is barometer for Irish Economy. Institutional investors see this too. While Ross sold his stake, there were buyers; while Noonan sells govt stake there will be buyers. As long as we continue to get good news about Irish economy, viz. unemployment, GDP, GNP, mortgage and loan defaults, balance of trade, exports etc etc...as long as there is a good news stream about the economy I will continue to hold this time.

Thronegames

...some people don't take kindly to newcomers on this board either...

mickman

Thronegames wrote: »

Govt at some stage will follow W Ross and sell a stake. Forget Gen Election. Sell in advance of local elections by Noonan to boost Coalition profile? All short term stuff tho. Check out www.lse.co.uk. There's a cozy Irish expat club going on and they don't take kindly to newcomers but the chat is funny and enlightening! Also very specific to BKIR and some great posts.

I'm holding this for next 1 to 2 years as part of diverse portfolio. I have bought and sold twice at 25% up on each occasion and bought again after results at 37c. Nothing happened after results, so I bought again. Now I'm down about 20% on that trade but still in profit overall. I will hold for 2 years. SP would need to crash for me to average down. I'm a contrarian gambler so 15c would be my next entry point.

Rationale: BOI is barometer for Irish Economy. Institutional investors see this too. While Ross sold his stake, there were buyers; while Noonan sells govt stake there will be buyers. As long as we continue to get good news about Irish economy, viz. unemployment, GDP, GNP, mortgage and loan defaults, balance of trade, exports etc etc...as long as there is a good news stream about the economy I will continue to hold this time.

Your strategy is trying to catch a falling knife - very dangerous

And you didnt really decide to hold "this time" , you are holding because you are very much in the red

mix_up

mickman wrote: »

Your strategy is trying to catch a falling knife - very dangerous

And you didnt really decide to hold "this time" , you are holding because you are very much in the red

its difficult to call a bottom with such a volatile stock like bank of Ireland , it could very well drop to below 20 cents yet could still be fifty by year end

bank of Ireland is not a falling knife , I would attach that term to a stock which has negative momentum going back a while , bank of Ireland is in a long term uptrend no matter what way you look at it

beertons

I bought today. I bought to the same value 2 years ago, and got 3 times the shares. Long term, will leave it 5/10 years. It's for the kids.

Farmer Pudsey

I think it could be bumpy for a while. However buying BOI and selling AIB could yield a good profit. PTSB is droping again if it falls below 8c/share it is in buying mode again.

I think that BOI will find it hard to exceed 40c/share this year if it hits around taht it would be selling time and reenter again at a lower level.

AIB will be bumpy selling when it goes over 15 and buying to close below 12c may be a winner.

I wonder has INM maxed out at 17-18c/share.

lucky john

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

I think it could be bumpy for a while. However buying BOI and selling AIB could yield a good profit. PTSB is droping again if it falls below 8c/share it is in buying mode again.

I think that BOI will find it hard to exceed 40c/share this year if it hits around taht it would be selling time and reenter again at a lower level.

AIB will be bumpy selling when it goes over 15 and buying to close below 12c may be a winner.

I wonder has INM maxed out at 17-18c/share.

One off the brokers were valuing AIB shares at €0.025c this week. For now aib is a gamble but boi is definitely an investment. Wexboy has included boi in his blog this week. Have a look and see if you agree with his figures.

As for INM. its one of my tips for the year and it's 25...30% up but to be honest it has a major task on its hands converting from traditional revenue to online revenue. The improving economy will help stem the tide but long term conversion is a must. At the moment inm has a profit of 32mil. I think 1m is the online contribution and 0 of that is from its 500, 000 viewer's. The conversion is going to eat traditional revenues for years. I have said many times the big plus is Denis o B and Dermot Desmond. If anyone can make this work they can.

Thronegames

mickman wrote: »

Your strategy is trying to catch a falling knife - very dangerous

And you didnt really decide to hold "this time" , you are holding because you are very much in the red

Thanks mickman but I'm under no pressure really. At last entry point 37c what would you do? I caught that knife by the handle twice on the way up as a gamble so I can take the loss this time around and walk away. Not exposed. I believe this share is a barometer of Irish economy in medium term. Thanks for your comment.

Thronegames

Yes I did buy ptsb about 7 and sold at 11. It's a short-term trader's dream! Yes I watch it every day!

big_spoon

beertons wrote: »

I bought today. I bought to the same value 2 years ago, and got 3 times the shares. Long term, will leave it 5/10 years. It's for the kids.

I wouldn't have bought today , once 30 cents was breached , a bottom will need to be found at least very close to 25 cents ( round number etc ) , 28 cents is not a bounce off point , these things are often quite ritualistic like that , that's not to say we don't climb a little past 30 cents first but the final " bottom " for at least a few months wont be 28

I think you will do fine long term , I myself bought two Fridays ago at .301 cent , I thought it wouldn't breach 30 , not worried though

big_spoon

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

I think it could be bumpy for a while. However buying BOI and selling AIB could yield a good profit. PTSB is droping again if it falls below 8c/share it is in buying mode again.

I think that BOI will find it hard to exceed 40c/share this year if it hits around taht it would be selling time and reenter again at a lower level.

AIB will be bumpy selling when it goes over 15 and buying to close below 12c may be a winner.

I wonder has INM maxed out at 17-18c/share.

I don't think it will exceed 40 cent this year but anyone who buys today would have a very good return were it to even get back to its high of the year , most years the market only does 10% afterall , bank of Ireland done 100% and more last year but that's not going to happen in 2014

tech

BANK OF IRELAND 0.288 -0.001 ( -0.24 %)


is it time to buy?

lucky john

tech wrote: »

BANK OF IRELAND 0.288 -0.001 ( -0.24 %)


is it time to buy?

In my personal opinion yes. Lock them away and come back in 3 years time.

dealhunter1985

up and down like a whore's nick nicks

Taylor365

I'm going to hold out a few more months.