BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

Daragh101

daveirl wrote: »

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ya, why would this affect share prices?. the market already knows what the gov plans to do etc, (set up NAMA) . so i would think this has already been factored into the share price.
I no that the share price will be affected by how much the gov actually buy these loans for, but it would not be affected by the set up of NAMA.
i may be wrong but this is what is making sense in my head!!!
why what do you think???

pirelli

Daragh101 wrote: »

ya, why would this affect share prices ?. the market already knows what the gov plans to do etc, (set up NAMA) . so i would think this has already been factored into the share price.
I no that the share price will be affected by how much the gov actually buy these loans for, but it would not be affected by the set up of NAMA.
i may be wrong but this is what is making sense in my head!!!
why what do you think???

I think that NAMA is the crutch that is preventing talks of nationalisation.

TaxiManMartin

Daragh101 wrote: »

ya, why would this affect share prices?. the market already knows what the gov plans to do etc, (set up NAMA) . so i would think this has already been factored into the share price.
I no that the share price will be affected by how much the gov actually buy these loans for, but it would not be affected by the set up of NAMA.
i may be wrong but this is what is making sense in my head!!!
why what do you think???

I agree totally.

pocketdooz

Daragh101 wrote: »

ya, why would this affect share prices?. the market already knows what the gov plans to do etc, (set up NAMA) . so i would think this has already been factored into the share price.
I no that the share price will be affected by how much the gov actually buy these loans for, but it would not be affected by the set up of NAMA.
i may be wrong but this is what is making sense in my head!!!
why what do you think???

I think what the point you're missing is - nobody knows how NAMA will shake out so this can't be factored into any prices. The market hates uncertainty - hence the volatility the last few months.

daveirl

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TaxiManMartin

daveirl wrote: »

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Spreadbetting. Its the only way to go. Dont hold bank shares.

daveirl

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TaxiManMartin

daveirl wrote: »

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Im talking about quick trades for quick profits. Never hold more than a day or 2.
You are not exposed to the risk of the banks being nationalized, which is becoming very unlikely now.

daveirl

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Daragh101

daveirl wrote: »

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i just thought it was the govs problem when they have bought the loans.
no need for the attitude mate!!!!

pocketdooz

Daragh101 wrote: »

i just thought it was the govs problem when they have bought the loans.
no need for the attitude mate!!!!

I think he is just trying to help you understand

daveirl

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Daragh101

i no ya, i did say that the problem was "how much the gov will buy these loans for".my point was that the market realise that the gov will have to put more capital into AIB & BOI, therefore causing part nationalization of the banks.what really depends on how many ordainary shares are bought by the gov is, how much they buy the loans for.

what i dont understand is what else to do with NAMA will affect the bank share price. and for the record i dont hold banks shares anymore!!!

finisklin

The problem is that the governement hasn't come out and confirmed the detail of the proposed structure of NAMA and how it will value and assume the debt (is it taking the good and bad or both....that hasn't been fully revealed). Top that off with rumblings of supposed litigation from developers regarding good debt/property potential etc and the market is hyper-sensitive to such innuendo.

Throw in the comments from the highest paid civil servant in the country in Michael Somers from the NTMA regarding the staffing of NAMA, potential litigation and consistent engaging of Dail committees with it and the signal that the market is receiving is unequivocal - it's still in the planning stage and a lot of detail has yet to be revealed. That's where the devil will be, in the detail. Too much uncertainty......

Good thinking not holding any shares in the main banks or anglo......

pocketdooz

Bank of Ireland reported an 80 per cent drop in full-year underlying earnings per share today and raised its expected three-year bad debt charge to €6 billion as recession intensifies.
The bank also said chairman Richard Burrows will leave the bank at the annual general meeting in July as a result of the collapse in shareholder return and warned that there was a downside risk to its €6 billion.
“Accountability for these losses must be taken at the top,” he said in a statement accompanying the results.
Three months ago, Bank of Ireland estimated a bad debt charge of €4.5 billion in the three year period to March 2011 but warned that there was a downside risk of a further €1.5 billion.
The bank, whose principal market is Ireland, warned that the financial year to March 2010 would be difficult.
Profits from the bank's retail banking business in the Republic were effectively wiped out, dropping to just €20 million compared to €716 million last year.
"We expect lower levels of new business activity, higher impairment charges and further pressure on liability spreads," the company said in its statement.
Bank of Ireland's underlying earnings per share (EPS) were 30.2 cents for the year to March 2009 compared with 150.3 cents a year ago after the company took a bad debt charge of €1.4 billion.
The bank reported a pre-tax loss of €7 million compared with a pre-tax profit of €1.9 billion a year ago. (FFS!)
The Government recently injected €3.5 billion into the bank via preference shares giving it a 25 per cent indirect stake.
Speaking to RTÉ’s Morning Ireland chief executive Richie Boucher said nationalization of the lender was not inevitable and said the bank was “very enthusiastic” about working with the National Assets Management Agency (Nama) and was “very ready to engage” with it.
The agency would provide “liquidity” against loans, he said, adding that he expects it to apply a “range of discounts” on loans. Mr Boucher said the legal issues facing Nama were “surmountable”.
Mr Boucher also admitted that "absolutely, I have made mistakes in lending".
He said demand for lending had slowed significantly with very few firms seeking to invest in property or machinery. The majority of loan applications were for cash flow and he said the bank was approving 80 per cent and that the bank’s overdraft lending was 14 per cent higher than last year.
Mr Boucher confirmed he would be paid a salary of €500,000 this year. Speaking later on Newstalk Mr Boucher ruled out a requirement by the lender for more capital from the Government.
Chief financial John O’Donovan said it is “likely” that loans being sold to Nama will be transferred on a phased basis.
“It is very unlikely that you are going to find that all the assets will go over at one time. People just couldn’t manage it. There is likely to be, I think, a phased transfer across,” O’Donovan told reporters in Dublin this morning.
“More importantly, how much is the bank going to make in next three years in terms of operating profit pre-provision? It will have a two-fold effect of self generating capital and putting capital in place that allow losses in future to be absorbed.”
Additional reporting Reuters/Bloomberg

TaxiManMartin

Good news. BOI is cleaning itself out.

This will give them a base to start back from.

Glacier

Do you think it will be a continuous rise from now on or do you think the uncertainty will continue until the full details of NAMA emerge?

TaxiManMartin

Glacier wrote: »

Do you think it will be a continuous rise from now on or do you think the uncertainty will continue until the full details of NAMA emerge?

Banks are going to go up and down like a yoyo for a good time yet. Theres lots of money to be made exploiting this.
In DCU we had a spreadbetting club.
Im still in it with some of the guys from it. Its great for this kind of thing. Im taking an average of about €500 a week from trading banks alone. Some of the guys are trading higher amounts and making massive money.

Glacier

Have many people here been doing it & how long do most people reckon this will last?

pirelli

TaxiManMartin wrote: »

Banks are going to go up and down like a yoyo for a good time yet. Theres lots of money to be made exploiting this.
In DCU we had a spreadbetting club.
Im still in it with some of the guys from it. Its great for this kind of thing. Im taking an average of about €500 a week from trading banks alone. Some of the guys are trading higher amounts and making massive money.

You make a modest profit.


I struggle to earn the same per week on the NYSE. On the ISE I have flipped the banks and made money although i was looking for something that give a small gain per day to make a small percentage a week rather than this yo yo cash in and then cash out and start again. I am tempted to try the ISEQ EXCHANGE TRADED FUND PLC.It appears to be giving out 3% a day.

Daragh101

Glacier wrote: »

Have many people here been doing it & how long do most people reckon this will last?

how long will this last? untill the banks or back on track OR nationalized!!

pirelli

Glacier wrote: »

Have many people here been doing it & how long do most people reckon this will last?

?
How long will the up and downs last. The market will go up and down.Always will.

When will people stop panic selling and panic buying. When the price rises people sell and then when it starts to drop people sell again to lock in the profit. Then when it goes low people see a bargain and buy in and it starts again. If it gets doesn't make some progress and break some technical line in some chart then its going to roll again. IL&P might have broken that technical line and if it progresses then people will think the price BOI is now is cheap and will buy and it will grow.

BOI is either in a price range or trending upwards from the last low of ninety cents. I think its trending up! but it wont take much for it to become a price range again.

The_Chopper

Guys as I am clueless would people say yes or no to taking a punt in BOI shares? Maybe 300 or so? It grew 36c today and they look like they are on the rise........

Could someone advise the pros and cons - apart from the obvious of making/losing money

Bob Z

Whats the least amount of shares you can buy?

TaxiManMartin

The_Chopper wrote: »

Guys as I am clueless would people say yes or no to taking a punt in BOI shares? Maybe 300 or so? It grew 36c today and they look like they are on the rise........

Could someone advise the pros and cons - apart from the obvious of making/losing money

For the cons - Imagine you bought some now and watch them fall tomorrow

Daragh101

dont buy.. they are at there hight now and will almost certainly fall back to €0.70 or €0.80 in the next week or two.

pirelli

TaxiManMartin wrote: »

For the cons - Imagine you bought some now and watch them fall tomorrow

Well its been rated a buy by Deutsch bank. And has been upgraded to neutral by some Nomura from sell.It is still rated HOLD. So we might see some more ups and downs.

BOI was upgraded to neutral from reduce by Nomura after the gorup reported better-than-expected captial ratios on Tuesday. But the broker still sees uncertainty around further dilution risks from the government's implementation of the National Asset Management Agency

Its trending up although factor in the market and might well be a pull back but forget the lows of march they are hopefully gone.

News update

Thursday May 21 2009

Leading economist Charles Dumas said yesterday that Ireland should temporarily nationalise the banks rather that set up a so-called 'bad bank' to buy up loans to fix the financial institutions.
And Just when BOI got a neutral...

ranger4

Daragh101 wrote: »

dont buy.. they are at there hight now and will almost certainly fall back to €0.70 or €0.80 in the next week or two.

I expect the next leg down to support to start today with selloff friday.

Idu

ranger4 wrote: »

I expect the next leg down to support to start today with selloff friday.

Why? Where's the bearish news?

ranger4

Idu wrote: »

Why? Where's the bearish news?

Bigest rally since mid seventies, many anaylists believe markets overbought, i believe we are due pullback.