BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

TTNYWWBM

All I was saying is that common sense would tell us that share prices will rise because of NAMA taking off 'toxic' debt out of the banks. You would think so...

BUT

The analysts in Davy and Goodbody are saying otherwise (see page 28 Business and Finance magazine June issue)

They are saying the price of AIB and BOI will fall as this 'debt' toxic as it may be is still worth a lot of money and the NAMA bad bank will be getting these debts what looks like for free! So they predict the share price will fall suddenly after NAMA comes into effect, taking 25 of the worst loans initially.

It makes sense if you think about it coldly, as when the debt is there on their balance sheets it's possible that it will be repaid so it is an asset as toxic as it might be. So when this is removed future recouping power is reduced and the actual assets reduced - so follows the share price!

Read the article in Business & Finance mag, page 28 even just in the newsagents - don't even have to buy the mag! So make sure to get your money out before NAMA comes into effect to insulate against any steep loss!

pocketdooz

Oh Lord

Time Magazine

Eglinton wrote: »

If I sold at today's current value I stand to make over 150K after tax and fees. However I'm here for the long-ish haul (1-3 years maybe).

Why not wait until they inevitably get back to €18?

Seriously lads, nationalisation is far from off the table here. If you have been lucky enough to make money off these (yes, it's pure luck) then seriously getting out now and not wait until Brian Lenihan pounces.

Let's not forget here that they're about to get massive help from the government to stay afloat. They're nowhere near a strong company at the moment.

Anyone got any figures on how many institutional investors vs punters are buying?

ranger4

The Economist wrote: »

Why not wait until they inevitably get back to €18?

Seriously lads, nationalisation is far from off the table here. If you have been lucky enough to make money off these (yes, it's pure luck) then seriously getting out now and not wait until Brian Lenihan pounces.

Let's not forget here that they're about to get massive help from the government to stay afloat. They're nowhere near a strong company at the moment.

Anyone got any figures on how many institutional investors vs punters are buying?

Read an article recently which did state that most of the buying with aib-boi was due to small investors& punters, some of the Large institutional investors have begun to sell a percentage of their stakes, I guess Most investors big & small are waiting before they go in for med-longterm untill nama details e.g haircut fig are announced.

ixus

ranger4 wrote: »

I guess Most investors big & small are waiting before they go in for med-longterm untill nama details e.g haircut fig are announced.

No**, it's pretty obvious that Ireland offers little to investors apart from a tax haven. We produce feck all. The majority of the IFSC jobs* are purely tax related. Banks made money because they could easily get it and people (instinctively) want it.

The problem with most of the punters on this forum is they do not think about:
1. the global economy
2. the European economy and how it affects us (read also UK & US)
3. our local economy and how we generate income be it as a nation or individual
4. then you look at the banks and how sound they are in their lending practices. How they will come out of the current situation. How they will generate future revenue.

Is it really that hard to spend 10 minutes thinking about this because, if you do, I'd expect you to have a lightbulb moment and come over to the dark side with myself, Idú, pocketdooz and the rest!

*These jobs will decrease and add to the debt spiral. We are simply in the eye of the storm as I see it.
**I'm not targeting you ranger4, just the outlook too many posters seem to have.
***I'm not an economist, but my view is that there are trends out there in the investment world. Real estate, commodities, bonds, stocks, currencies. All trends; take a step back and you can pick up on it.

/rant for tonight

ranger4

ixus wrote: »

No**, it's pretty obvious that Ireland offers little to investors apart from a tax haven. We produce feck all. The majority of the IFSC jobs* are purely tax related. Banks made money because they could easily get it and people (instinctively) want it.

The problem with most of the punters on this forum is they do not think about:
1. the global economy
2. the European economy and how it affects us (read also UK & US)
3. our local economy and how we generate income be it as a nation or individual
4. then you look at the banks and how sound they are in their lending practices. How they will come out of the current situation. How they will generate future revenue.

Is it really that hard to spend 10 minutes thinking about this because, if you do, I'd expect you to have a lightbulb moment and come over to the dark side with myself, Idú, pocketdooz and the rest!

*These jobs will decrease and add to the debt spiral. We are simply in the eye of the storm as I see it.
**I'm not targeting you ranger4, just the outlook too many posters seem to have.
***I'm not an economist, but my view is that there are trends out there in the investment world. Real estate, commodities, bonds, stocks, currencies. All trends; take a step back and you can pick up on it.

/rant for tonight

I agree we are in the "eye" of a storm and that earnings for banks will be negitive for some period of time to come with the comercial sector and cc & personel debt problems yet to be fully digested by the banks (possibly in autum) however we came a hair Length away from total financial meltdown last feb-march with the cost of the huge stimlus to be paid by everyone for many years to come, however for ireland to pull itself out of this mess we need a viable working banking system and i believe we are seeing some signs of recovery with the global banking system which allthough will have problems allong the way is now slowly on the road to recovery, question is can the gov now start developing regulation that would not be too restrictive for banks to make profits whielst preventing same event to happen in say 10-15 years again.

TTNYWWBM

Whooa nelly,

There's ages till NAMA starts transferring the first block of debt.

Ride BOI AND AIB till then for all they are worth! :cool:
As they are rallying and dipping like bucking broncos!

Near NAMA I'm selling 50% and see what happens after first block of debt is transferred to the bad bank.

Glacier

Do you see the current rally continuing though?

TTNYWWBM

Glacier wrote: »

Do you see the current rally continuing though?

No one can know for sure, I think it will continue for the next week or so, there still is a few bob to be made from the two stocks AIB and BOI.

Knowing our Government there will be delays, everyone keep their eyes on the media for any sign of NAMA being put into effect.

TaxiManMartin

My other half is on hols at the moment, so she doesnt know what price BOI hit yet.

She bought €10,000 worth of BOI shares at €0.22 back in March. I told her she was nuts of course.
She instructed her broker to automatically sell half of them if they hit €2.20

The drinks are on her.

ranger4

TaxiManMartin wrote: »

My other half is on hols at the moment, so she doesnt know what price BOI hit yet.

She bought €10,000 worth of BOI shares at €0.22 back in March. I told her she was nuts of course.
She instructed her broker to automatically sell half of them if they hit €2.20

The drinks are on her.

Exellent, good to hear of investors making profit.

Idu

ranger4 wrote: »

Exellent, good to hear of investors gamblers making profit.

Fixed your post.;)

Seriously though congrats on the windfall.

pirelli

TaxiManMartin wrote: »

My other half is on hols at the moment, so she doesnt know what price BOI hit yet.

She bought €10,000 worth of BOI shares at €0.22 back in March. I told her she was nuts of course.
She instructed her broker to automatically sell half of them if they hit €2.20

The drinks are on her.

That's a long holiday.

TaxiManMartin

pirelli wrote: »

That's a long holiday.

Shes only on hols 2 weeks. Back tomorrow. Should be a nice surprise.


IDU, she wouldnt consider it any more a gamble than any investment in the markets.
She works in finance. She would say she knows a lot more about investing than most of the people who were afraid to touch BOI.

Shes not the only one where she works who has pulled that kind of profit from the banks either.

I, however, am much more cautious by nature.
Im going to try and convince her to cash in the other half of it right away. A bird in the hand and all that.

ranger4

Idu wrote: »

Fixed your post.;)

Seriously though congrats on the windfall.

Yea, congrats with the investment.:D

Gonzales

heading south this morning... did I miss some news over the w/e?

pocketdooz

Gonzales wrote: »

heading south this morning... did I miss some news over the w/e?

The country is in recession?

The bank is losing money?

Asset prices are plummeting?

Unemployment is rising?

Entering a deflationary wage-price spiral?

There's no confidence in the government?

Bad debts are rising?

The company pays no dividend?

Management is new and untested?

etc.etc.

Gonzales

pocketdooz wrote: »

The country is in recession?

The bank is losing money?

Asset prices are plummeting?

Unemployment is rising?

Entering a deflationary wage-price spiral?

There's no confidence in the government?

Bad debts are rising?

The company pays no dividend?

Management is new and untested?

etc.etc.

Hmmm...Oooohkay.

stevedublin

pocketdooz wrote: »

The country is in recession?

The bank is losing money?

Asset prices are plummeting?

Unemployment is rising?

Entering a deflationary wage-price spiral?

There's no confidence in the government?

Bad debts are rising?

The company pays no dividend?

Management is new and untested?

etc.etc.

all of which is factored in to the current share price.
Add:
The world economy is starting to grow again
the Irish economy will follow suit
asset values will bottom out soon
etc. etc.

AntiRip

Gonzales wrote: »

heading south this morning... did I miss some news over the w/e?

I shouldn't have went long on 2.13!! :rolleyes:

Down over e1000 at the moment...:eek:

Idu

you wouldnt think that maybe cutting that loser might be a good idea?

AntiRip

Idu wrote: »

you wouldnt think that maybe cutting that loser might be a good idea?

Not really no. Will wait for a little while longer.

Idu

oh dear

AntiRip

Idu wrote: »

oh dear

Are you saying it will never go back to 2.13 again? It's all chance either way.

Idu

AntiRip wrote: »

It's all chance either way.

Yeah keep believing that.

It probably will go back to 2.13 eventually but if you're taking 200 quid winners then risking a 2000 quid loser is foolish. Add to that the fact that every market in the world are having big down days and I wouldn't be comfortable sitting in a massively offside trade.

Thats just me though

pocketdooz

stevedublin wrote: »

all of which is factored in to the current share price.

Yes, making the company (practically - but not quite there yet) worthless

Add:
The world economy is starting to grow again

No it's not.

the Irish economy will follow suit

So what - we're talking about it's degenerate, junkie kid here, not the overall economy

asset values will bottom out soon

Will they? When?

etc. etc.

.

TTNYWWBM

The european central bank statement is what caused the tumbling share prices! How stupid, if they didn't announce this utter claptrap **** it wouldn't have affected the market anyway! What a self fullfilling prophecy!

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0615/ecb.html

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0615/marketupdate.html

How easy it is to create a snowball effect...

I hope this reactionary selling has been put to rest and investors realise now it's a perfect time to buy back in before NAMA!

It reminds me of a Garfield cartoon, Garfield walks on his back legs upright, he can reach the door, the food off the table, the pie on the window sill, Odie says "cats can't walk on 2 legs" Garfield falls flat on his face "Drat!" :rolleyes:

rugbyman

TTNYWWBM wrote: »

The european central bank statement is what caused the tumbling share prices! How stupid, if they didn't announce this utter claptrap **** it wouldn't have affected the market anyway! What a self fullfilling prophecy!

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0615/ecb.html

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0615/marketupdate.html

How easy it is to create a snowball effect...

I hope this reactionary selling has been put to rest and investors realise now it's a perfect time to buy back in before NAMA!

It reminds me of a Garfield cartoon, Garfield walks on his back legs upright, he can reach the door, the food off the table, the pie on the window sill, Odie says "cats can't walk on 2 legs" Garfield falls flat on his face "Drat!" :rolleyes:

hello TTNYWWBM

I like some of the stuff you write, but you seem to be a bit over the place on the present road for bank shares pre NAMA.

you feel, on occassions, that its rise ,rise all the way to NAMA and yet you quote Business and Finance s article suggesting that post NAMa the shares will be worth either side of a euro.


this quote of yours ,which i had intended to comment on earlier today is my favourite. it is my opinion also,

"What does this all mean, why is no analyst giving us a straight answer like... YES the bank share prices will rise or NO the bank share prices will fall? The answer is THEY DONT KNOW! "


Four weeks ago irish bank shares hovered around 1 Euro, the subsequent rocket like rise of over 120 % shocked all, because as you said "THEY DONT KNOW". Even some of the Nay sayers on here engaged in polite conversation, shocked as they were.

My own feeling in the last two weeks was that Irish bank shares were not a good buy for me at those levels, circa 2 euro. where was the upside to be?

regards,Rugbyman

Daragh101

the problem when buying in at say €2 is that there is a lot of room for error!
I mean the share price could easilly be back at 80-90cent in a couple of weeks !!! at least if you buy in at say 60-70 cent you could think if it gets any worse its nationalization!!!
I dont think the share price has enough potential at 2 euro to bother taking the risk!!!!!:rolleyes:

TTNYWWBM

Hi Rugbyman,

Its true my posts must seem all over the place, a bit Michael O'Learyish.
However related to a particular timestamp they are a relevant take on then current events.

We have to always see both sides of an argument and both sides of a prediction. Then weigh the odds and proceed accordingly.

The price will open today AIB 2.05 BOI 1.845 and should rise...
Hopefully investors and punters will realise that this ECB thing is not completely relevant, in fact it should have been almost irrelevant to Irish Banks because of NAMA, only influencing in a minor way due to interbank business/relations, and that dear old Ireland is a small part of Euro banking and the mad billion figures mentioned relate mostly to banks in other countries, NAMA is addressing our local problems. However in an unstable market, this was all it took to send the shares into freefall.

In a logical world NOW both Bank shares should rise back in anticipation on NAMA, and I'll now nail my colours to the mast, I think NAMA IMHO will boost the banks share prices.

Who thinks it will, who thinks it won't and why?