Cold Spell Phase 2 (Wednesday onwards)

Wibbler

Ok, I posed the following questions in the 'fierce cold spell' thread, but they got lost amongst the reports of current conditions. Mods, if a new thread is not appropriate now then please feel free to deep six this one.

The snow over the last day or so has been a surprise for some, but a disappointment to many. For those of us unlucky not to be able to make snowmen this morning I ask:

What is the next week or so likely to bring? Is there potential for further, and possibly more potent, snow? Is Dublin likely to see anything memorable, by way of snow?

nacho libre

if you are located in the west, southwest, or north then Thursday is your best chance of seeing some sneachta as the winds back to the north and a succession of trough move down over the country- of course it's possible it will get technically milder at times during these, so some places could see sleet or rain.

apparently, due to stratospheric warming this is set to be a cold month overall and indications are good for wintry weather towards the middle of the month.

MayoForSam

Yeah, that other thread has got a bit too cumbersome (too many excited eastern cousins musing about the white stuff).

Time for a new thread to go along with the change in wind direction coming from the north methinks!

Long way to go in February, there will no doubt be a lot more potential snow events coming our way (hopefully).

Dublin may still be in the firing line too.

Bog Butter

So are we in Ireland going to have much snow on Thursday with the predicted 'convergance' as reported on Sky News?

munsterlegend

what does convergance mean?

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

what does convergance mean?

when two different winds or opposing airmasses meet. in this case i think it means the point at which warm and cold air will meet over ireland.

munsterlegend

thanks nacho...presume that will be over the northern half of the country..do you know what sky said?

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

thanks nacho...presume that will be over the northern half of the country..do you know what sky said?

yes the northern half should stay cold enough for snow.

i didn't see the sky forecast

http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/elements/whatgoesup3.htm

there's a more detailed explaination of Convergence on the above site.

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

if you are located in the west, southwest, or north then Thursday is your best chance of seeing some sneachta as the winds back to the north and a succession of trough move down over the country- of course it's possible it will get technically milder at times during these, so some places could see sleet or rain.

Actually the GFS has a Northeast flow on thursday so that would make the East [again] and the North the favoured areas on that day [but many more if a trough feature ran down]

The 12z ECM agree's with that

apparently, due to stratospheric warming this is set to be a cold month overall and indications are good for wintry weather towards the middle of the month.

Hopefully so.
I ain't as optimistic as everyone else [yet] on the whole MMW thing though as I'm still puzzled as to how weather models fed with CURRENT information could be factoring in stuff that hasnt had an impact on CURRENT information yet.
But then I'm not a mathematician,I'm just a weather geek

af_thefragile

I don't think we're gonna see much more snow than today for the rest of the year now...
For the past 3 years its only been snowing for a day or two in Feb (atleast in Dublin).
This time we've had it snowing for 2 days continuously in Feb. We might probably see a couple more brief show showers over this week but i think this week is gonna be the last of any snow we'll see atleast in Dublin.

af_thefragile

af_thefragile wrote: »

I don't think we're gonna see much more snow than today for the rest of the year now...
For the past 3 years its only been snowing for a day or two in Feb (atleast in Dublin).
This time we've had it snowing for 2 days continuously in Feb. We might probably see a couple more brief show showers over this week but i think this week is gonna be the last of any snow we'll see atleast in Dublin.

You cant say that as you have no science to back it up.
just because 1803 was a mild february [I've no idea if it was..just a random year to make a point] it has no impact on the following february.
Nada none whatsoever.

There have been a few february's that have been particularly cold [half of feb '91] for instance.
That happens due to certain climatological factors falling into place.
They either do or they don't.Mostly they don't [the ones responsible for snow] but they can't be ruled out.

Pangea

So how about showing us models for next week anyone?

kerry1960

Pangea wrote: »

So how about showing us models for next week anyone?

Right then sir , this would be nice if it comes off , somewhat a repeat of this week , snow almost everywhere ..........erm except donegal :rolleyes: .

Pangea

lol take that back!
well yes very nice , hope it comes off, Im jetting off to spain for 7 days on the 18th ,Im worried il miss any cold events here!

ninebeanrows

Alright guys, its sad but the rain has started to fall and phase 1 of the cold spell is beginning to close. It will be a wild few hours with a bands of rain and sleet moving across the country with some snow in places.

But the next phase of cold will spread from the north from this evening (Wednesday) as cold northeasterly push south with very low upper level temps and a return to sub zero dewpoints.

Snow showers will affect northern and northwestern coastal counties most but a cold front pushing south through Thursday early AM could give a snowfall anywhere. Also some snow showers may drift onto the east coast on the Northeasterly wind and some unexpected features cannot be ruled out :pac:

A very frosty period for many with harsh frost Thursday night and lots of ice.

sillybird

Thanks Kerry hope it comes off ...I know its 6 days but its looking like more snow

MUSEIST

well tbh at this stage i want it to be either snow or just dry, i am sick of this slushy mess i have had the last 2 days
I think there is a good chance for dublin on thursday, dew points should be favourable for some snow and hopefully accumulations.:)

Alzar

Looking forward to it. Hopefully part 2 will be as entertaining as part 1.

Night, night

Al.

Danno

Light snow here, albeit a tad wet snow. 1.7c and a 1.3c Dew Point.

francosp

Rain is coming down hard in D11

kerry1960

Danno wrote: »

Light snow here, albeit a tad wet snow. 1.7c and a 1.3c Dew Point.

Did ye lads in laois finally dig yer way out then.......:P

Danno

We can dig our way out of snow, but not football or hurling it seems

1.6c and dews down to 1.0c. Cold air is returning.

Rodg3

First Page ^^

But agreed, i'm hoping that there will still be a respectable snow coverage by the time the cold snap hits on Thursday.

qwert2

Weathercheck wrote: »

Alright guys, its sad but the rain has started to fall and phase 1 of the cold spell is beginning to close. It will be a wild few hours with a bands of rain and sleet moving across the country with some snow in places.

But the next phase of cold will spread from the north from this evening (Wednesday) as cold northeasterly push south with very low upper level temps and a return to sub zero dewpoints.

Snow showers will affect northern and northwestern coastal counties most but a cold front pushing south through Thursday early AM could give a snowfall anywhere. Also some snow showers may drift onto the east coast on the Northeasterly wind and some unexpected features cannot bender ruled out :pac:

A very frosty period for many with harsh frost Thursday night and lots of ice.

Good work WeatherCheck, you've been playing a blinder all week.
So do you think Dublin will do better this time around?

Pangea

Wow another thread ,last one was magnificent, but with no end product for me ,this thread better do me favours lol.

Snow for donegal wanted ! Will buy in bulk from Wicklow! lol

Redsunset

i've still got 3 inches on my lawn.snowed some again this evening.got my little ruler out and it was 1cm after a prolonged shower.wed night ,thur mornin looks very interesting it will be a nice bit of snow i feel that'll cross the country then later more coming into the east like what wc just mentioned.fair play lad.i did think you were over estimating the dump levels but my god i was in the firing line for alot of it an wasn't disappointed as i danced silly in it.stayed up all the night an was bout to give up when she suddenly came like a train choo choo ha.:rolleyes:

Pangea

Currently Very windy here in South Donegal and it is freezing too! The car is white with frost ,very strange ,never saw it being so windy and it freezing at the same time.

Pangea

This is awesome

http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-1134763/Caught-video-Britains-biggest-runaway-snowball--fool-tried-ride-it.html

Pangea

Gotta love this somewhere in England.

ericl

|I left Ballymun (D11) for Coultry (D9) at 9:oop.m., lots off slush on the ground and a lot of rain, just returned, slush all gone and plenty of rain coming down.

ericl

Dont know how ^^^:o^^^ happened.

SpitfireIV

A new thread eh! The old one confined to the history shelves of the Boards storeroom where forever more it shall be looked upon as the 'Great Snowfall of February 2009', our children, and our childrens children shall view it in awe, you mark my words! :pac::p

Anyway, this place is the quitest now that its been for a few days, seems everyones having an early night, no street light watching tonight! :cool:

Well, here's to Wednesday night/Thursday! May it bring us (but more so those of you whom have been denied snow these past few days) a damn good covering! I'm actually hoping for a snow free day and a somewhat dry day tomorrow, have an enormous amount of outdoor work to do and the weather these last few days hasnt favoured me :rolleyes:, but it was snow, so, I can live with it.

DOCARCH

At some stage the sleet must have turned to very wet snow during the night as I have fresh (very wet0 snow cover on cars, etc.

Still a lot of snow remaining from yesterday, on roofs, grass, pavemnets, etc. This is my third morning in a row with snow lying - can't remeber that for a very very long time!

I have recorded 50.4mm of ppn in 24 hours (snow, snow melt and rain)!

Am liking Met E forecast this morning:

More prolonged falls of sleet and snow will develop in the north this evening. Maximum temperatures only 3 to 6 Celsius, in a fresh and gusty easterly wind.

Tonight

Tonight will be very cold, with outbreaks of sleet and snow extending southwards in over Ulster, much of Connacht and north Leinster. Mainly dry elsewhere, but some scattered showers will occur along the east coast, Minimum temperatures 0 to minus 2 Celsius, with frost and icy conditions in many areas.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow will be bitterly cold, with fresh to strong north to northeast winds. There will be some bright or sunny spells, bur scattered wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow also, especially in the north and east. Max. 1 to 5 Celsius.

M.T. Cranium

Today, the old low keeps on slowly dying as it circles around to the southwest ... some further sleet or snow may occur but the temperatures have risen just enough to change the balance over to more rain today.

Colder air is set to return from north of Scotland, and on the way through it is going to pick up some very cold air around Glasgow, as well as the remains of a front that is dropping rain and sleet in northern Scotland now. This should add moisture to the cold flow, and swing the probability back to snow for Thursday's sea effect snow streamers running down the east side of the country, as well as impacting the northwest from the Atlantic.

As with the first set of events, the snow will be more likely to stick inland and at some elevation, but once again, it could become heavy at times. Friday and Saturday will see continued snow, then a somewhat milder trend is likely to develop.

I predict this thread may make it to 100 pages, after the first one reached about 210 ... some places that don't lose much snow today could be doubling their totals on the ground through this second event, and it should make for some interesting reports from the local mountains this weekend.

From RTE.ie

There were heavy snowfalls on the Wicklow mountains where four motorists remain stranded in their cars in the Sally Gap.
Members of the Wicklow Mountain Rescue team stayed with the motorists overnight but it was deemed too dangerous to attempt a rescue through the night.
A rescue operation is under way, which is being carried out by the Dublin Wicklow Mountain Rescue and the Glen of Imall Rescue team.

The wicklow mountain rescue team tried to reach them from the laragh end and got stuck.
They then got as far as they could from the Blessington side and had to resort to ski's to reach them.
They stayed with the cars overnight.
The snow is 4 feet deep with it being impossible to make out the road from the deep dikes and fields and obviously the road is closed.


The rescuers were interviewed in their strong wickla accents on morning Ireland which you'll be able to listen to online later when it's up.
I think it was around 810 to 820 am


It's being dubbed Irelands first ski rescue!

sorella

In the foothills of the Blue Stacks here; little wind but bitter cold and once more frozen up.

Pangea wrote: »

Currently Very windy here in South Donegal and it is freezing too! The car is white with frost ,very strange ,never saw it being so windy and it freezing at the same time.

MayoForSam

Well. I'm in north Co. Galway and the event just gone was absolutely useless for us in terms of snow - we got about 2 showers that melted almost straight away and all we got was sleety rain last night.

Hopefully, the change in wind direction will bring a lot more of the white stuff our way this time. I wonder will the Atlantic have much of a warming influence on any precip coming in from the NW?

Fingers crossed we get snow and ice for Friday morning, I'm supposed to be going to Dublin but I'm looking for an excuse to get out of it!

I doubt if this thread will get as many hits as the previous one, a lot less people will be affected in the north and west in any case (unless those NE streamers get going down the Irish sea).

MayoForSam

Deleted User wrote: »

From RTE.ie




The wicklow mountain rescue team tried to reach them from the laragh end and got stuck.
They then got as far as they could from the Blessington side and had to resort to ski's to reach them.
They stayed with the cars overnight.
The snow is 4 feet deep with it being impossible to make out the road from the deep dikes and fields and obviously the road is closed.


The rescuers were interviewed in their strong wickla accents on morning Ireland which you'll be able to listen to online later when it's up.
I think it was around 810 to 820 am


It's being dubbed Irelands first ski rescue!

Apparently, they were 'sightseers' who went up looking for heavy snow in two 4x4's :rolleyes:.

Some Dutch tourists got stranded somewhere else near Tallaght and a garda car that went to their rescue also got stuck - a trusty local farmer and his tractor managed to get them out. Local knowledge FTW in this sort of weather!

darkman2

Looks like the East coast snow streamer will be back just after midnight. Tomorrow morning looks very snowy in the East. Then tomorrow evening snow moves off shore again - may move onshore again on Friday. Then keep an eye on Sunday. Something a bit more substantial (but probrably transitionary snow to rain) is brewing;)

Supercell

Unf'n believeable amounts of snow here, its pure snowmageddon!!
Tree branches down everywhere, lost power at 02:00, but restored now.
What those people were doing at Sally gap in these conditions is beyond silly.
Its melting now but there is sooooo much of it its going to be here for another few days at least, well over a foot of snow in the fields.

Rambling rose

Raining here all morning in Kilkenny, not a scrap of snow in sight.

Im gutted

Still wondreing if I should travel to and from Dublin tonight or will this wet -freeze and make conditions as dangerous as they have been the last few evenings?


LET IT SNOW....

francosp

Whats the odds that Dublin will see snow tomorrow ?

Supercell

Supercell wrote: »

Unf'n believeable amounts of snow here, its pure snowmageddon!!
Tree branches down everywhere, lost power at 02:00, but restored now.
What those people were doing at Sally gap in these conditions is beyond silly.
Its melting now but there is sooooo much of it its going to be here for another few days at least, well over a foot of snow in the fields.

pictures or it didnt happen

roryc1

Deleted User wrote: »

pictures or it didnt happen

yea sound,s like a dream:)

Supercell

Deleted User wrote: »

pictures or it didnt happen

Heh, I'm actually curious as to the snow depth on level open ground so shall be armed with camera and tape measure later to provide the proof!!

My roof is effectively one big waterfall right now..so much melting snow.
I'd say even tractors would have a hard time of it getting up the hills here.

Supercell

Merged threads as both on same topic

Supercell

Reading the GFS 6z, the precipitation timing is interesting.
Norn Iron wil have the precip earlier in the night and probably will see snow throughout. For Dublin and the SE it doesnt arrive really until 5 or 6AM with peak intensity around midday.so may be a snow to sleet affair at sea level.
850's are not as cold as earlier runs either, only -5 or so, that said is an Artic source..still, its very marginal again. I think it will be a nowcast scenario with all eyes to DP's in the north tonight.

pistolpetes11

Left Newbridge this morning and the place was still covered in snow ! Actually all the way up the N7 was , as was most of the places along the M50 from the Red Cow to Sandyford ,

Then when i got into Sandyford there was not a bit left!

darkman2

Supercell wrote: »

Reading the GFS 6z, the precipitation timing is interesting.
Norn Iron wil have the precip earlier in the night and probably will see snow throughout. For Dublin and the SE it doesnt arrive really until 5 or 6AM with peak intensity around midday.so may be a snow to sleet affair at sea level.
850's are not as cold as earlier runs either, only -5 or so, that said is an Artic source..still, its very marginal again. I think it will be a nowcast scenario with all eyes to DP's in the north tonight.

ECM shows something a bit more substantial for the East tomorrow



Comfortably cold enough by the looks of things



Also there is a difference in timing. GFS brings in precip in the early hours - ECM early tomorrow morning and lasting throughout the day.

That looks very marginal now away from the hills.
The precip looks like the lighter stuff from the system over the UK.

The Irish sea might spoil the dewpoints in that case despite the polar source.

Streamer Irish sea LES would have been better.

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

That looks very marginal now away from the hills.
The precip looks like the lighter stuff from the system over the UK.

The Irish sea might spoil the dewpoints in that case despite the polar source.

Streamer Irish sea LES would have been better.

I disagree tbh. I don't think it is part of the system over England and Wales. I think it is showers. Its very similar to the GFS but there is about a 6 hours difference between the two. We got snow yesterday in a more marginal setup then that here on the coast. Id be pretty confident of snow in that setup myself.