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Significant snow Thursday Night/Friday/Saturday

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,246 ✭✭✭rc28


    On the tv forecast he completely avoided talking about friday!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,793 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    its so hard to guess even rte dont know where the snow will fall on friday, were either gonna get nothing in the east or were gonna get loads of snow. We wont know till the last minute. They are going for a colder weekend than they did last night, saturdays maxima 4C and Sundays maxima 5C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,359 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    rc28 wrote: »
    On the tv forecast he completely avoided talking about friday!

    Don't blame him! Must be a total nightmare trying to decide to forecast 6 inches of panic in Dublin or nothing, if it happens and you didnt forecast it there will be outcry, if you did and it doesnt happen you'll be accused of scaremongering.

    Will be a brave forecaster that says Dublin is about to be buried (ie >2cm = city grinds to a halt) .

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,793 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    any chance of even tonights rain band turning to snow tonight, even maybe on its backedge? Its only 5C atm and this band is bringing colder weather so im thinking maybe some places may even get some wintry stuff tonight?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 651 ✭✭✭Paddy.1


    Gonzo wrote: »
    any chance of even tonights rain band turning to snow tonight, even maybe on its backedge? Its only 5C atm and this band is bringing colder weather so im thinking maybe some places may even get some wintry stuff tonight?

    6c here, I wouldn't be suprised if something did happen because it looked pretty cold in the aftermath of the front according to Gerry on the news. That must have some sort of effect. Will be interesting to see reports tomorrow morning.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,359 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Probably not on the rainband itself except for the mountaintops. But showers could well be wintry by morning in the North already.
    Edit: Just had a look at the 2M dewpoints from the 12zGFS, not going below zero until mid morning even in the north - Snow unlikely until late morning tomorrow is my guess a a result.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 75 ✭✭repr


    Gotta say on BBC 6-25pm weather it did show a fair few snow showers in parts of Ireland both North and South on Friday..

    Although you could tell the girl on the local BBC one at 6-55pm was scared to show much detail for Friday but suppose thats understandable.

    More concerned about the wind for tonight


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 651 ✭✭✭Paddy.1


    Your probably right, I just thought that the undercutting of colder air before the front passes on might sqeeze a snowdrop or 2 on its back edge. As you say, hilltops might grab a few.


  • Registered Users Posts: 89 ✭✭Cornilius


    Sorry this is a bit off topic but does anybody else find it difficult to cope with daily life, such as an essay which is due Friday!!!I just cant sit down and do it with these amazing charts!!!

    Dublin needs a serious pasting when was the last time there was lying snow on O'Connell street or along the Four Courts out of interest? Seen a few videos on youtube recently, of streets in Belfast been buried in snow on the 3rd of January amazing!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,793 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Belfast is one of the snowiest parts of Ireland, it usually always gets a pasting whenever theres a treat of snow. Dublin on the hand always seems to have bad luck in snow snaps, its always either too mild due to the sea and when its cold enough to snow, the snow mostly manages to miss Dublin City. Rosslare, Waterford City, Cork City and Kerry are also places were it rarely snows.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Cornilius wrote: »
    Sorry this is a bit off topic but does anybody else find it difficult to cope with daily life, such as an essay which is due Friday!!!I just cant sit down and do it with these amazing charts!!!

    Dublin needs a serious pasting when was the last time there was lying snow on O'Connell street or along the Four Courts out of interest? Seen a few videos on youtube recently, of streets in Belfast been buried in snow on the 3rd of January amazing!

    Ah no, it happens to all the hardened snow fanatics:D

    Sure i failed my Maths mock with flying colours last year thanks to the prospect of snow! quite similar to this too! It ended in tears!!

    As for the Cold Snap.

    I really can't comment anymore, things are very uncertain at this stage, GFS and UKM are far apart in there predictions for Friday.

    GFS has the occlusion far west, while UKM has the occlusion far east.

    The best scenario would for it to fall in between these predictions.

    This would give the east coast a pasting of power snow rather than the potential for sleet if the GFS came off ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 89 ✭✭Cornilius


    I heard Evelyn on the sea area forecast on rte radio earlier and she mentioned there would be a series of troughs on Friday, if she was forecasting tonights would she be ramping it up or is it just too unpredictable!


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    IMBYism is fantastic!

    Now I want the GFS outcome to come off, as I would deem the midwest to benefit most from a combination of precipitation and lower dewpoints! I have a feeling though, given the synoptics that it may go more eastwards and westwards as the greater instability will be nearer to the main LP.

    However, I disagree with the MetO predicted location of the LP on Saturday. I think it will slide southwards closer to Scotland en route to Scandi. That might force any secondary lows on a more westwards route.

    On the other hand, the MetO-backed scenario would be more conducive to front-stalling on Sunday what with a more beefy ridge in the north Atlantic. This HP would also lift the wind speeds a little, leading to more occlusion and a greater chance of snow:)

    You should all see the weather type chart for Friday on met.ie! It's rather black and white, to say the least :p


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,359 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    God, I'm not going to get much sleep tomorrow night, I just know it, its to much to take already!

    Will it, won't it, enough to drive a weather nut mad!!

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Longfield wrote: »
    God, I'm not going to get much sleep tomorrow night, I just know it, its to much to take already!

    Will it, won't it, enough to drive a weather nut mad!!

    I know!

    I was going to be going out! But these days when you get about 3 good shots at snow a year ya gotta cream every second of it!

    That means staying up all night Thursday watching our comma (code name) develop:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 89 ✭✭Cornilius


    Will it , won't it? Ha ha....Poor Gerald Fleming:confused:

    Do you reckon there will be much action tomorrow night?

    I feel like a child on Christmas eve!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,246 ✭✭✭rc28


    Cornilius wrote: »
    Sorry this is a bit off topic but does anybody else find it difficult to cope with daily life, such as an essay which is due Friday!!!I just cant sit down and do it with these amazing charts!!!
    Lol, you're exactly like me except I'm in the middle of my mocks now- I find it hard to study when there's snow forecast. Just like WC last year, i'm going to fail maths and irish (irish on friday will be interesting-i'll be looking out the window rather than writing a bad essay I tried to learn off the night before)


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,359 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Cornilius wrote: »
    Will it , won't it? Ha ha....Poor Gerald Fleming:confused:

    Do you reckon there will be much action tomorrow night?

    I feel like a child on Christmas eve!

    There'll be plenty of action here in Annamoe as I run in and out the front door every five mins to check the clouds and see if anything's falling from the sky!!

    In between that i'll be looking at satellite maps every few mins to seek any hints of commas as Wc likes to call 'em developing ;)

    No-one knows for sure wheter the midlands and east will see snow tomorrow...anything could happen - feck all or a winter wonderland for all!!

    One things for sure, this time tomorrow we'll all be climbing the walls!

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users Posts: 89 ✭✭Cornilius


    Well the best of luck rc28, hopefully the snow will get down nice and early tomorrow to disrupt transport and exams!
    It must be largely a younger crowd on these boards, I must be old at 20!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,246 ✭✭✭rc28


    Cornilius wrote: »
    Well the best of luck rc28, hopefully the snow will get down nice and early tomorrow to disrupt transport and exams!
    It must be largely a younger crowd on these boards, I must be old at 20!
    ZOMG, Grandad!
    Hopefully the snow will not only affect transport but cause the roof of the school to cave-in:D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Update

    Before i hit the hay

    My update after taking the 18z into consideration.

    Firstly there seems to be an increased risk of wintry weather tomorrow afternoon.

    After the passage of the from tomorrow AM, bitter winds will feed in from the NW, showers will turn wintry towards 3pm, and i would not be surprised to see widespread light snow showers tomorrow evening.

    It will be followed by a hard freeze everywhere, temperatures down to -2c and dewpoints to -5c.

    A comma will wind up in the north/ northwest of Ireland and trek southeast through Friday AM, reaching Dublin by around 9am, snow will become heavy at times and will stick, dewpoints may rise to 0c towards around 4pm which may allow the snowpack to melt a little, artic air will push in behind with a hard freeze by 5pm with light snow flurries following.

    Temperatures down to -5c on Friday night with scattered snow flurries.

    Overall model guidance suggests that around 10/15mm of precipitation will fall in the Dublin region, this would suggest that 10cm of lying snow is likely across much of Leinster during Friday. Temperatures may rise to 2c at times during Friday.

    Also to note is that winds are expected to be quite strong, 35mph means gusting 55mph along the east coast, temporary blizzard conditions are possible, the wind will be icy blowing from the NW across snowfields.

    It is a similar set up to Pancake Tuesday February 27th 2001, obviously not identical. 850hpas were marginal then and the wind was off the Irish sea.

    Rrea00120010227.gif

    This is why i am confident that after a hard frost on Thursday night, snow will fall and not rain during Friday ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 651 ✭✭✭Paddy.1


    Eurosat image of the formation of Low to the NW over the last few hours:

    http://wind.met.fu-berlin.de/wind/satellit/meteosat_loop.php?speed=16&count=48&intervall=30&refresh=5&playmode=Endlos

    Really is explosively developing now, already winds gusting over 40mph here. An interesting night ahead I think. Bring it on:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,725 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    according to the forecast at 9:30 he was showing wintry showers again for Sunday. Still, lets enjoy Thurday night and Friday Morning first. i expect on Friday morning to wake up to about 3- 4 inches of snow outside my window:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 651 ✭✭✭Paddy.1


    according to the forecast at 9:30 he was showing wintry showers again for Sunday. Still, lets enjoy Thurday night and Friday Morning first. i expect on Friday morning to wake up to about 3- 4 inches of snow outside my window:D

    Me too, I won't get out of bed for anything less than 4 inches. I am getting a bit scared though, according to 'weathercheck' above, all the action seems to limited to the east. That certainly ties in with the GFS forecast.


  • Subscribers Posts: 8,322 ✭✭✭Scubadevils


    Reading the posts on netweather would make one wonder :confused:


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,725 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    weathercheck and netweather are wrong. i refuse to believe otherwise! our time has come god knows we've been deprived enough in these parts for long enough!


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Paddy.1 wrote: »
    Me too, I won't get out of bed for anything less than 4 inches. I am getting a bit scared though, according to 'weathercheck' above, all the action seems to limited to the east. That certainly ties in with the GFS forecast.

    No, im just being Nimby! Sorry

    Your gonna get as continius stream of snow showers!

    Although probably now Polar low ;)

    i reckon a good 3 inches.


  • Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭kerry1960


    ok....right then .....im ready..... snowpoles all the way down the bohereen......the avalanche barriers are now in place behind the orchard....herself just finished fitting snowchains to the tractor....i removed the antifeeeze from the cortina and replaced with erm pure alcohol... and the sheep are sleeping peacefully in the hallway.
    im ready ,im waiting ,im im exhausted......need about 2 days sleep after all that..........
    ouestion is : are u ready


  • Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭kerry1960


    on a serious note the wind is howling around here


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Malin Head - 997hPa
    Cork Airport - 1018hPa

    Thats some squeeze in them isobars... :eek:


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