Significant snow Thursday Night/Friday/Saturday

darkman2

Time to start a thread for this period on its own I think.



There will be significant snow for many toward the end of the week particularly in the North and West. All areas look likely to see snow at some stage over this period. Amounts will vary from very little in the South East to easily disruptive amounts in the Northern half of the country. Showers or longer spells of snow during Thursday Night/Friday/Saturday. Bitterly cold - temperatures ranging from -7 to 3C throughout the period with a harsh frost and Ice on Friday and Saturday nights. It will feel really raw and will be a shock to many given the Spring like conditions we have had so far.




Please keep this thread specific to this sharp cold snap:)

Paddy.1

Gerald Flemming was really ramping this up - or trying to - on the tv weather at 2:55 - 'many will see snow' - 'showers or longer periods of snow'

I hope gerry murphy is on holidays untill tuesday or wenesday at least!

I wonder when Met Eireann will issue a severe weather warning. If its left to the eagle then expect it after the event has happened.
Ireland v italy at croker on saturday could be in doubt. Anybody know if croker has underground heating?
The Galway International Rally at the w/end should be fun, fast powerfull cars and the dreaded white stuff. It will be mayhem:)

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Just made a poem about BB's quote:

Snow for Mayo, ho ho ho,
Mayo for snow, la la la,
Mayo, Mayo, Mayo,
Snow, Snow, Snow.
Weeeeeeeee.
Snow
for
Mayo. (repeat 114 times)

Beautiful and profound words there Paddy:D

I am desperately hoping a polar low comes out of nowhere thurs night and I wont be able to go into my Irish mock exam the nxt day. About croker; I think it's supposed to be getting milder on saturday now and if there's not any organised fronts Dublin is unlikely to see much white stuff.

So, how much snow do you all think will accumulate in the high risk areas?

Is 3-4 inches of lying snow at lower level a realistic expectation?

I expect about 7 inches in many parts of the northwest coast if there's much activity in this extremely cold air (If!!:p)

darkman2 wrote: »

Gerald Flemming was really ramping this up - or trying to - on the tv weather at 2:55 - 'many will see snow' - 'showers or longer periods of snow'

It is a pity Evelyn isn't on, as she really can put a positive spin on things, she actually gets as excited as we do. Gerald is too calm and logical.

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I expect about 7 inches in many parts of the northwest coast if there's much activity in this extremely cold air (If!!:p)

I remember this little feature in Dec 2000 bringing me almost a foot of snow in North Galway:



Synoptics probably subtlely different, but I live in hope.

Paddy.1 wrote: »

I remember this little feature in Dec 2000 bringing me almost a foot of snow in North Galway:



Synoptics probably subtlely different, but I live in hope.

ah yes i remember that!

we got about seven inches out of it.

Shameless cherry picking of charts here but eh wow
http://91.121.94.83/modeles/wmc/run/wmc-1-120.png

I guess that was the real worst snow in the west for 30 years paddy

I'd be very surprised paddy if you didnt see a lot of snow from this event.
Atlantic convective showers are very heavy creatures.
I've often wondered when over there in Ballinrobe in a right haymaker what it would be like if they fell as snow.
Theres a pretty good chance of a repeat and maybe a foot of snow over there,I kid you not

maquiladora

12Z GFS rolling out...

...situation for Friday still looks pretty much the same as it did on the last couple of runs...

...Saturday not so good after early morning on this run...still time for changes though.

You might want to use metociel

kerry1960

well well ........are we in kerry about to lose our perfect record ,our three in a row ,our third green winter.........is the county about to swap the green and gold for a more lillywhite variety ........ believe it when i see it.
:rolleyes:

Southwesterly by saturday on that 12z.
Not too wintry compared to the prvious runs.
Bin time.

maquiladora

kerry1960 wrote: »

well well ........are we in kerry about to lose our perfect record ,our three in a row ,our third green winter.........is the county about to swap the green and gold for a more lillywhite variety ........ believe it when i see it.
:rolleyes:

All areas have a good chance of snow Friday/Saturday. Not really possible to predict exact locations this far away with much certainty.

jameshayes

It could snow for the italy game!?
-That would be cool!

If it snowed to much and the game was be cancelled
-That wouldn't be cool!

maquiladora

jameshayes wrote: »

It could snow for the italy game!?
-That would be cool!

At the moment it looks like things will be getting milder around that time but these things change.

darkman2

ATM it looks like roughly a line from The Wicklow mountains to Athlone - North of that

---

and

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a line from Athlone south to Co Cork south coast - west of that that will see snow. More the further North and West you go.

Supercell

Treads merged (kinda, I broke something..and figured out how to do it right too late doh!)

Paddy.1

Deleted User wrote: »

I guess that was the real worst snow in the west for 30 years paddy

I'd be very surprised paddy if you didnt see a lot of snow from this event.
Atlantic convective showers are very heavy creatures.
I've often wondered when over there in Ballinrobe in a right haymaker what it would be like if they fell as snow.
Theres a pretty good chance of a repeat and maybe a foot of snow over there,I kid you not

Worst snow in the west since January 1984, and before that in Dec 81, hardly 30 years. But that is beside the point.:) I am holding you to your forecast, If I don't get a foot of snow from this, I am moving to the south east, at least it won't be cold in summer.

Trogdor

I think my post got lost somewhere in the thread merging process:p.
Anyway I hope the Russians are right:eek:
http://91.121.94.83/modeles/wmc/run/wmc-1-108.png
http://91.121.94.83/modeles/wmc/run/wmc-1-120.png
This model is insane:p, look at the 510 dam line:p:D
http://91.121.94.83/modeles/wmc/run/wmc-8-108.png

It is cold in summer - colder than north galway-damned sea breeze kicks the temp on the finest of a june day to 13 or 14c sometimes

I can't guarantee the snow for you paddy but if I was to be somewhere that I'd expect 5 or 6 inches I'd be in your garden.

Paddy.1

Deleted User wrote: »

It is cold in summer - colder than north galway-damned sea breeze kicks the temp on the finest of a june day to 13 or 14c sometimes

I can't guarantee the snow for you paddy but if I was to be somewhere that I'd expect 5 or 6 inches I'd be in your garden.

Seems that no matter where you go in the island, there is a snag. I remember one day last June, soon after our little heatwave, of getting a peak temp of 10.1c on a day that just vomited rain. Anyway, I would love to see the SE sometime, it seems to be a very scenic place, green and lush. Something that could never be described as being around here, although there is a beauty in the bleakness here that I wouldn't swap for the world.

Trogdor wrote:

think my post got lost somewhere in the thread merging process.
Anyway I hope the Russians are right
http://91.121.94.83/modeles/wmc/run/wmc-1-108.png
http://91.121.94.83/modeles/wmc/run/wmc-1-120.png
This model is insane, look at the 510 dam line
http://91.121.94.83/modeles/wmc/run/wmc-8-108.png

Did you not know, the Russian's are always right;)

Danno

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Seems that no matter where you go in the island, there is a snag. I remember one day last June, soon after our little heatwave, of getting a peak temp of 10.1c on a day that just vomited rain. Anyway, I would love to see the SE sometime, it seems to be a very scenic place, green and lush. Something that could never be described as being around here, although there is a beauty in the bleakness here that I wouldn't swap for the world.

Try south Laois, scenic and probably the best weather in Ireland!

Cool in winter, warm in summer - as close as possible to a continental climate that this island will allow.

Paddy.1

Danno wrote: »

Try south Laois, scenic and probably the best weather in Ireland!

Cool in winter, warm in summer - as close as possible to a continental climate that this island will allow.

Nice one, was down there last summer at "Electric Picnic", and though it was warmer than here, I also got pissed wet in a really incredible downpour. They seem to follow me for some reason:o

darkman2

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif



Nice for Thursday night:)

Supercell

Those trough lines often amount to nothing in a Northerly down here.
Unless we get something frontal I fear its going to be sunny and very cold here in the east and not much else. Though a snowy breakdown on Saturday isnt out of the question.
Heres hoping for polar lows!

patneve

trogdor wrote: »

I think my post got lost somewhere in the thread merging process:p.
Anyway I hope the Russians are right:eek:
http://91.121.94.83/modeles/wmc/run/wmc-1-108.png
http://91.121.94.83/modeles/wmc/run/wmc-1-120.png
This model is insane:p, look at the 510 dam line:p:D
http://91.121.94.83/modeles/wmc/run/wmc-8-108.png

HAHA as soon as I saw that model I laughed for about 10 minutes:D If that occurred every single lake in Ireland would freeze and maybe the liffey:)

ninebeanrows

I expect the single snowiest day since 2001 for a wide portion of Ireland during Friday......

Why one may ask...

This is going to be a quick snap of cold but boy its coldddddd.

850hpa temperatures of -10c widely across Ireland

500hpa temperatures from down to -43c!!

500hpa thicknesses near 510dam.

Now at an early guess here are my thoughts.

Thursday around midnight a trough will push south across Ireland it will consist of wintry showers sleet/hail and some snow for ground above 200m.

A harsh frost will then follow down to -3c but tempered by the strong wind.

I expect a comma or organised area of precip to form to the North of Ireland, entering the Donegal penninsula and pushing southeastwards. I except deep falls across Ulster and NW Connacht but contrary to some belief, having a NW gives us in the east a much better chances than a straight northerly, less sea trek.

I expect the system to leave upto 3 inches of snow over a large region of Ireland, this will push south through the day followed by bitter icy winds and snow showers, temperatures will struggle to get above 0c barring the south coast and southwest fringes where it could reach 3 or 4c.

A hard freeze on Friday night.

Paddy.1

Well ECM insistant on a change on Saturday:



Wonder will the air over us on sat be cold enough to keep the snow going as front moves in sat night/sunday?

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

I expect demand the system to leave upto 3 inches of snow over a large region of Ireland, this will push south through the day followed by bitter icy winds and snow showers, temperatures will struggle to get above 0c barring the south coast and southwest fringes where it could reach 3 or 4c.

A hard freeze on Friday night.

I changed that a bit there for you

Supercell

Lol!
A nice summary there WC.
This comma ..go on , admit it, your talking about a polar low aren't you?

The North and West are going to get a plastering I've little doubt about that.
I'd even say northern Dublin might see something.
Wickla looks to be mainly dry sunny and blooming cold..unless these "comma's" get going

patneve

hmm the GFS seems to have downgraded the intensity of the cold (Yesterday there was a -12 at 850 over much of Ireland, now at best there is a -9/-10 at 850) and also its 'life' over the emerald isle has been shortened (up until tuesday on yesterdays run to saturday evening on today's run). But, indeed, it will be a great cold snap and here I will try to give my predicted accumulations:D

Donegal-Sligo-Mayo-N. Galway

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up to 10cm on lower ground, up to 15 on higher ground.
Southwest

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max 5 cm...really depends on the wind, more on higher ground obviously
Midlands

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5-10 cm
Dublin

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could get nothing but considering the formation of troughs/organized showers (hoping that the wind will be strong enough to push them inland) could get a decent covering, so lets say MAX 1-2 inches (2.5 --> 5 cm but not more)
Southest

---

same as Dublin

HAPPY SNOW FOR EVERYONE

p.s. possible formation of polar low:D That would give this snow deprived island a hammering:)

Supercell

This chart below is awesome for several reasons!



Look at Scotland!, look at the wiggle in the isobars in the South East of Ireland.....

bassy

so then lads any hope for a nice fall of snow in north kilkenny?

a lot of you predicting by the charts no snow for southeast,any change on that?

heres hoping for snowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww here.

ninebeanrows

Yep Longfield the GEM which is the DWD and used quite widely by Meteorological Organisations in Europe is forecasting 850hpa temps down to -12c half way down Ireland! Colddddddddddddd;)

ninebeanrows

Interesting Fax Chart for Midday Friday

Harrrrrrr blows in the 510dam line wrapped around an interesting specimen

Supercell

If that occlusion makes it down here I'll be doing a jig.

RuggieBear

bollix i'll be at croker on sat.....going to freezzzze my arse off!

Longfield

Longfield wrote: »

If that occlusion makes it down here I'll be doing a jig.

It might ,one did before a few years ago.
Started snowing here at about 11am for a few hrs-twas light but steady.
Very little stuck though except on the hills..

*wait* you are up the hills!

bassy

bassy wrote: »

so then lads any hope for a nice fall of snow in north kilkenny?

a lot of you predicting by the charts no snow for southeast,any change on that?

heres hoping for snowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww here.

Should be some,how much we dont know.
The showers are either going to be widespread or restricted to the north and west,its hard to say.
Stay tuned.

Supercell

Deleted User wrote: »

Should be some,how much we dont know.
The showers are either going to be widespread or restricted to the north and west,its hard to say.
Stay tuned.

Aye, thats about the gist of it. The heart says sneachta, the head says cop myself on...

smashey

I'm watching this thread with interest as everytime we get a good snowfall forecast in Donegal, it disappoints. (Ask Sean McEniff).

Now guys, I believe we're right in the firing line, so to speak.

Will I be disapointed yet again?

ninebeanrows

smashey wrote: »

I'm watching this thread with interest as everytime we get a good snowfall forecast in Donegal, it disappoints. (Ask Sean McEniff).

Now guys, I believe we're right in the firing line, so to speak.

Will I be disapointed yet again?

No, not this time, your gonna have 6 inches of snow on your grass for sure by nightfall Friday

smashey

Weathercheck wrote: »

No, not this time, your gonna have 6 inches of snow on your grass for sure by nightfall Friday

I like your optimism WC.

Oh to be so young again.

Gonzo

just saw the rte forecast and they are giving a 2 day cold snap, wintry showers on thursday and snow showers on friday, mild south westerlys back by saturday with temps of 7 or 8C

BBC have removed the snow risk from Dublin again:(

A major downgrade I think?

Supercell

Gonzo wrote: »

just saw the rte forecast and they are giving a 2 day cold snap, wintry showers on thursday and snow showers on friday, mild south westerlys back by saturday with temps of 7 or 8C

BBC have removed the snow risk from Dublin again:(

I wouldn't worry about snow forecasts for Dublin - its nailed on for the Northwest - Smashey will be digging his way out of his house on Saturday morning, alas for us on the eastern coast; it will take a very active trough or a polar low to deliver the goods.

These are always nowcast things, all we can say is that the conditions look right for them to develop but its far from certain that they will.

Sierra Oscar

I wonder how much we could get down around Limerick\North Tipp?

lucernarian

I do wonder also. I'm not expecting much, but don't we live in hope:)

afatbollix

Deleted User wrote: »

The Galway International Rally at the w/end should be fun, fast powerfull cars and the dreaded white stuff. It will be mayhem:)

im doing the rally.... should i be buying the snow tires now ???? lol... also id say they will be griting the roads and about 200 cars will go through before us would this melt it down to the tarmac??? if its at a few inches....

Danno

GFS is hinting towards an interesting weekend on the 18z. This cold spell could be back for Sunday/Monday/Tuesday yet... damn Saturday afternoon anyways!

smashey

Longfield wrote: »

Smashey will be digging his way out of his house on Saturday morning

Hopefully.

darkman2

Posted this on NW and its my honest opinion of the charts

For the Irish contributers - tbh I dont think you get whats in front of us. The vast majority will have lying snow on Friday. Trough after trough will be coming down in the flow from Thursday evening. The SSTs are suitably high for these to be very active indeed (hence the met eireann forcast) - a November 2006 event but with more snow and readily lying. Thats my honest opinion - I cant think of anywhere missing out - unless you live in Rosslare! Even here id expect some flakes;)

darkman2

00z shows a band of snow crossing the country on Friday.

arctictree

darkman2 wrote: »

00z shows a band of snow crossing the country on Friday.

UKMO T+48 shows a front lying right across the country (Galway to Dublin) on Thursday night. This is looking interesting....



A

Scubadevils

Looks promising but I can't get excited after so many let-downs in the past. I really suspect this will end up once again with the snow coming to a halt somewhere around Ashbourne or maybe Blanch. Fingers crossed though

hawkwing

This looks good :

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess=

Mobhi1

GFS now indicating reasonable precipitation in the Dublin area on Friday - 10mm - if this all fell as snow I suppose that would come to about 10cm:D? Although for the period of the heavier precipitation the dew point rises above freezing so maybe not all snow:(!
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=EIDW

ninebeanrows

Looks like there gonna be a band of intense precip moving south during Friday AM, there is a problem though, temperatures are at 1-3c and dewpoints are at -1c -> 1c

If the winds stay off land NNW then it could stay totally as snow.

If it did we would get around 6 inches of snow across most of Ireland.