Easterly Blast Prospect Thread :

SpitfireIV · 02-01-2008 3:45pm

Deleted User wrote: »

no sticking is likely though umless theres a heavy shower and unless you live up where longfield and artictree live.

Wonder if those two guys would be set to take in about 20 weather nuts so we could experience snow so

;)

Trogdor · 02-01-2008 3:54pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

You can see the cold air digging in across southern England on the latest Sat Pic.

That's encouraging for shower development isn't it? As the clear slot which is now over Southern England moves over the Irish sea?

arctictree · 02-01-2008 4:01pm

CroppyBoy1798 wrote: »

Wonder if those two guys would be set to take in about 20 weather nuts so we could experience snow so ;)

Ahem - I'll have a word with the wife....!

Camera is ready should anything happen and my webcam is live so ye can see if there is any lying snow :

http://www.roundwoodweather.com

A

rc28 · 02-01-2008 4:09pm

This shows the colder temps moving in from france over the uk well;
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.html

Ryanoneill2006 · 02-01-2008 4:28pm

Just looking at Metcheck and they have issued a warning, interestingly the whole of Ireland is in the "No Risk" category whereas the whole of the UK including Northern Ireland has some level of warning associated. Is this just because they do not include Ireland in their forecasting??

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/warnings.asp

Villain · 02-01-2008 4:29pm

Yea I think we have discussed that before Ryan, they don't include Ireland in those risk charts.

SpitfireIV · 02-01-2008 4:33pm

I was just thinking about that since I posted that Metcheck warning a couple of days back. But Metcheck usually do include Ireland in there warnings, strange that suddenly they decided to leave us out :rolleyes:

Ryanoneill2006 · 02-01-2008 4:33pm

Thanks, I'm not a regular on this forum.. maybe I should start using the search function a bit more!!

Villain · 02-01-2008 4:40pm

Well I don't think we know for sure, but I have noted before that when all the charts were saying we could get snow, that snow risk chart was blank for us.

ninebeanrows · 02-01-2008 4:53pm

A colder prognosis from the 12z GFS.

Looks like the rain band is not going to affect us but there is a chance for some snow showers in the east and north tomorrow afternoon and evening

With 850hpas down to -8c

02-01-2008 4:57pm

Ok cant get more than a sub 24hr gfs-it's good like that.

So from the 12z we should have slightly lower or equal to sub -5850's covering all of the East.
It's also progging sub zero dp's,some precipitation from irish sea convection and air temps between 2 and 4c.

Thats a recipe for snow.So I'd say theres a fair chance of snow flurries if now more (depends on if you are lucky to catch a decent shower or not) in the East tomorrow within about 20 miles from the coast-the closer you are to it the better.

To put a bit of detail on it I'll try and say heavier showers are more likely from Dublin North through east meath,Louth,Down and Antrim.
Lighter showers south through wicklow,wexford and nothing south of that showerwise and nothing west of there either unless by chance some heavier showers brew.
The heavier ones are more theoretically possible the further north you are so that increases the chances of snow showers into places like kildare,the rest of meath and maybe into cavan,and Monaghan.

It's extremely hard to tell untill we see what if anything and where on the Irish sea they appear but appear they will

arctictree · 02-01-2008 5:02pm

Some interesting temps early on Friday over Ireland from the latest GFS:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn4217.png

It seems the cold pool is moving over us.

BTW - The 18z for today has 8c for Dublin and 3c for the same time tomorrow.

A

ninebeanrows · 02-01-2008 5:03pm

Note the most instability in the 2nd chart i posted is where the darkest shade of blue is over north Ulster, if that can dip abit further south, bingo.

Northern Ireland looks like it could see a few centimeters of snow tomorrow!

Dew points look marginal around the precipitation although still good at the moment.

Expected to rise to -1c around the precip with temperatures of 2c.

All in all tomorrow is looking more interesting than expected this evening.

Kippure · 02-01-2008 5:04pm

The tempeture on kippure -2c. Wind Chill - 10 to -14. Snow flurries and snow grains.

The tempeture at the gates to kippure 3c. Wind chill 0 to -2c. Light mist.

ninebeanrows · 02-01-2008 5:05pm

A nice looking chart

repr · 02-01-2008 5:07pm

I am quite suprised with this upgrade def chance of some snow showers on East coast and up North here

Snowbie · 02-01-2008 5:13pm

Yep the heavier showers will occur from the longest stretch of water in the Irish sea with a true East wind.
ie:Liverpool towards Dublin northwards
Now how heavy and where they occur i dont know,this is how unpredictable showers are.

again @Black Briar from earlier(up to my oxters in work so could not reply) The -10 850 temps are better for shower activity if over a longer stretch of water like a North wind.This is where you can get the best build up of clouds for thunder snow from our CB's.

Its just not that big, the Irish sea, and you would need a slack enough East flow over water at them temps to generate these lads.

Apart from 2003 thunder snow here but that was deep convection from a close LP to our NE/E and the explosion from this was so rare and unheard of.
It will not be like that tomorrow as the flow is stronger and the sea is a tad bit cooler but its warm enough to build up some cumuli or a few towers but nothing extreme due to our low level continental flow.

Just a note,low DP(sub zero is good for snow but if too low below -3c is bad as the air is too dry.Just another spanner in the works, but i dont think they will get much below -0.0 anyway for the most part.

Villain · 02-01-2008 5:15pm

Looks like the North could get a nice bit fo snow, kippure are you currently seeing snow flurries?

Kippure · 02-01-2008 5:16pm

Villain wrote: »

Looks like the North could get a nice bit fo snow, kippure are you currently seeing snow flurries?

Im at home now, was up on kippure mountain earlier and by god was it cold up there.

arctictree · 02-01-2008 5:22pm

Kippure wrote: »

The tempeture on kippure -2c. Wind Chill - 10 to -14. Snow flurries and snow grains.

The tempeture at the gates to kippure 3c. Wind chill 0 to -2c. Light mist.

Respect. You goin up there tomorrow too?!

Kippure · 02-01-2008 5:25pm

arctictree wrote: »

Respect. You goin up there tomorrow too?!

Back to work mate. But will be up there on saturday morning early i hope.

Tomorrow we will have showers coming in off the irish sea, Some heavy, some light. Will Have hail and sleet, maybe snow towards evening. We wont know until we are radar watching and tracking these showers.

Villain · 02-01-2008 5:27pm

On that note anyone got any good free radar site for shower watching?

Kippure · 02-01-2008 5:28pm

Villain wrote: »

On that note anyone got any good free radar site for shower watching?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

Here

Trogdor · 02-01-2008 5:33pm

Villain wrote: »

On that note anyone got any good free radar site for shower watching?

http://www.meteox.com/gmap.aspx?zoom=5&lat=52.908902047770255&lon=-1.845703125

Ryanoneill2006 · 02-01-2008 5:35pm

UKMO have issued a weather warning, looks like Eastern Britain is going to get a pasting.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

02-01-2008 5:46pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

A nice looking chart

Not for down here in North wexford

@snowbie, yeah you are right I suppose in a straight easterly.

Mindy you aberystwith to mothman in a straight easterly is not to be snuffed at it's a longish enough trek for showers.

Historically though here the heaviest shower train has always been in a north Easterly and that would be making maximum use of the length of theI rish sea.

The only other thing I'd say is ...how often have you seen showers in the irish sea and the wind has been north or northwestwasrds with no hope of them making land fall in Ireland and instead being robbed by north and west wales.
This time what ever is out there will make landfall.

@ Kippure,I don't know what measurement equipment you were using but I'd check the circuit panel on it.
Theres absolutely no way that the temp on kippure could have been -2c today.
+2c maybe but not -2c

artictree didnt go below 5c during the afternoon and he's at 820ft not too far south of kippure and you are reckoning that it was 7c colder on kippure 1800 or 1900ft higher up?
I've climbed many a mountain in my time,but I've yet to see one in Ireland measure 7c colder at the top compared with the bottom.

It's not the himalaya's you know

Trogdor · 02-01-2008 5:50pm

Shwoers overnight?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html
There seem to be breaks in the cloud appearing over Wales, England and the Welsh coast as well. If it became clear over the East and the sea could there be some shower activity later?

SpitfireIV · 02-01-2008 5:54pm

trogdor wrote: »

Shwoers overnight?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html
There seem to be breaks in the cloud appearing over Wales, England and the Welsh coast as well. If it became clear over the East and the sea could there be some shower activity later?

My weather station is displaying its raincloud symbol and its usually not wrong when it shows that, means rain is a few hours off, so you never know

02-01-2008 5:54pm

Ah there will be showers.
Some of them will actually be stuff thats blown all the way over from the North sea and pepped up again as they hit the irish sea.

Snowbie · 02-01-2008 5:56pm

I just had a heavy'ish rain shower there for a minute trogdor.

There will be showers tomorrow,its how heavy they be is unknown but looking good.
Sleet at best for here i'd say.Snow i think is a possibility in the heavier ones or maybe we just get flurries? I think its up to the sea now to deliver.

Radar watching followed by dewpoint me thinks.

Easterly Blast Prospect Thread :

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