Easterly Blast Prospect Thread :

Ignore gfs by the way and ignore gerry's forecast,it looked like a hirlam concoction...

SpitfireIV

Weathercheck wrote: »

Haha I have been banned from Netweather for posting "Rubbish" on the Model Output forum.

So i shall be spending my posting time on here for the cold snap! Lucky youse

You're Matty M? Haha, another one punished it seems for going off topic on the model thread and 'knee jerk' reactions

Danno

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/run/42-574.GIF

Snow for Laois ONLY.

ninebeanrows

CroppyBoy1798 wrote: »

You're Matty M? Haha, another one punished it seems for going off topic on the model thread and 'knee jerk' reactions

It would fair enough if it was, i was just commenting on the 18z output compared to the 12z :eek: Nothing.....

Anyhow.

The 18z is a slight improvement on the 12z although not by much.

We will have to base our forecast on nowcasting and UKM Model Output over the next 48 hours.

Trogdor

Hmm...
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1324.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13217.png

Villain

LOL WC I just joined you on NW for posting a post supporting you lol

ninebeanrows

Villain wrote: »

LOL WC I just joined you on NW for posting a post supporting you lol

That's going to ve a short lived membership if you do that :D

Villain

Sorry meant I just got banned for posting in support, been a member for years, I got a PM from you but got banned before I could read it, can't read it or the one saying I was banned now lol

Ryanoneill2006

Hey,

Did anyone catch any of tonights forecasts? Has the cold spell been downgraded further??

Danno

Gerry Murphy has 3 to 6c for Thursday with rain over the far south, Not further north than the N24 Road.

Ryanoneill2006

Sounds like it's game over so!! Ah well thats a pity, was looking forward to some of the white stuff!

Kippure

It aint over till the atlantic has swung in. and at that it will be a cool north west flow at times.

Danno

Danno wrote: »

Gerry Murphy has 3 to 6c for Thursday with rain over the far south, Not further north than the N24 Road.

Yeah well how many times in this thread so far have I said,I've no confidence in Gerry's forecasts.

I'm convinced He thinks the word snow doesnt exist on it's own in the english language unless it's within the phrase on high ground.
You can almost see the pysical pain when he mentions that 4 letter word.

Either Gerry is right and the front doesnt head up or the UK met office is right and it does...
Met Éireanns forecast this morning on the radio was a lot wintrier than Gerry's last night which is typical!
Game still on I think but it's just ever changing ie a now cast.

arctictree

Looks like a very transient event but better than nothing. It all seems to be about the temps and precip location now. I'm afraid that a lot of people on the south coast could get the worst type of weather - cold frontal rain.

Anyway - when do ye think the temps should start dropping? I'm only down a couple of degrees on this time yesterday - was expecting more TBH...

A

Trotter

arctictree wrote: »

I'm afraid that a lot of people on the south coast could get the worst type of weather - cold frontal rain.

As usual!! The God of snow doesn't do much work down here!

arctictree

arctictree wrote: »

Looks like a very transient event but better than nothing. It all seems to be about the temps and precip location now. I'm afraid that a lot of people on the south coast could get the worst type of weather - cold frontal rain.

Thats all the south coast or most of the south for that matter was going to see so that hasnt changed.

Anyway - when do ye think the temps should start dropping? I'm only down a couple of degrees on this time yesterday - was expecting more TBH...

A

Most stations are down about 2c or more on yesterday already.
Dewpoints crucially have already dropped 3c.
The flow is still southeast and originating in France.
From later thisevening it should be East with significant drops in both.

ninebeanrows

Hey folks, unfortunately i cannot see any snow from this cold set up for Ireland over the coming days.

The Model Output this morning suggests a total lack of precipitation.

There may be a few grains in the wind but i reckon that will be it, unless the
Irish sea can create a few showers.

I'm tending to agree now with WC.

My earlier optimistic comments were based on the reliable model output of the time.
I don't trust GFS during Xmas outside of 48hrs but its pretty good within a 36 to 36hr time frame.
The UKmo output this morning has been considerably less aggressive in terms of cold progression westwards and in terms of precipitation.

I'm tending towards sleetystuff at best at sea level with what little precip is likely to develop.
I wouldnt underestimate the Irish sea when a cold feed is going over it but the 850's arent low enough to generate the huge beefy showers you need I think.

The first front also looks like it will have little if any precip or will crumble altogether on it's western flank.

Snowbie

Deleted User wrote: »

I wouldnt underestimate the Irish sea when a cold feed is going over it but the 850's arent low enough to generate the huge beefy showers you need I think.

The 850s would have no great effect on creation of showers but on what form of precip where to fall from clouds. ie:the lower the temp the more of a chance for snow etc etc.

Think of it ,the Irish sea as a kettle of boiling water,the water boils and release's vapor condensing when hits cooler air and creats a cloud.
Very obvious aint it and its that simple.

Now with cold air moving over a warm sea,a tendancy of the same above will happen as air pressure is low too so any heat left over the sea will rise mix with cold air and wholla,clouds form as lapse rates will steepen too and instability will be the outcome and possible trough will form(most unlikely though).Where and when this will happen is impossible to tell.How big the clouds will form again depends on instability etc.

If the front stays south away from us the chances are increased and decrease if the front moves closer for showers.

I dunno snowbie,the lower your 850's (beyond -5c for instance which is not happening) the more instability I always thought.They are not crucial but they do give a spurt.
Though low level cold air also brings instability obviously.

Regardless,pressure is not very high-in fact it's low!
The temp is not rising and the DP is a good 4.5c below air temp.
If we keep that ratio we'll have maybe 3 or 4c tomorrow and negative dewpoints handily enough.

This aint no 80's spell but precip will be wintry in nature-just probably not as wintry or as persistant as it has been looking.
I'm struggling to call it a spell even as it's looking like a 24hr wonder!

DOCARCH

Not a mention of any form of wintery precipitation in Met E lunchtime forecast on radio! John Eagleton said that tomorrow would be a 'typical winters day'!!! Really playing it safe there or are we supposed to read between the lines?

Villain

Typical in that the MET don't know what will happen

ninebeanrows

Well the ESE breeze here has picked up and quite chilly.

The LP cell is now slowly sliding southeastwards into the continent, the front will push up against the southern coast later, with winds increasing very strong.

Whether there is any snow or not tomorrow it will be a bitterly cold day with temperatures of 1-4c, and a signifigant windchill.

Winds will be 30mph gusting 50mph, Easterly.

arctictree

Well, the 1pm forecast on RTE1 TV has snow showers for the east coast tomorrow. so, it really could be a hit and miss affair. From our experiance in the past, we could have no showers or suddenly some really heavy ones bubbling up. Karina seemed fairly optimistic anyway!!

A

Ryanoneill2006

I've caught some of the Irish and UK TV forecasts today and really think that this is going to be a non-event. The UK forecasts are now playing down the risk of snow in the South and were forecasting rain for us. I am no weather expert but I honestly dont think that the next 24 hours will deliver any snow to the South/East except maybe on high ground. Please someone prove me wrong!!! :D

ninebeanrows

Ryanoneill2006 wrote: »

I've caught some of the Irish and UK TV forecasts today and really think that this is going to be a non-event. The UK forecasts are now playing down the risk of snow in the South and were forecasting rain for us. I am no weather expert but I honestly dont think that the next 24 hours will deliver any snow to the South/East except maybe on high ground. Please someone prove me wrong!!! :D

You are right,

Although from Thursday 0000 - Friday 0600 (small 30 hour window!:o ) it will be cold enough IMO for snow here in Dublin.

Whether we get any precipitation remains a doubt

repr

Yea not lookin to good for anywhere apart the east of Scotiland.

Think could be floodin some places on Fri night with that torrential rain, looks nasty

Villain

Am I right in saying that models are giving pretty severe winds for Saturday?

Ach flurries or light snow showers are probably going to happen tomorrow in Eastern counties-no sticking is likely though umless theres a heavy shower and unless you live up where longfield and artictree live.
Showers might not either but they are not impossible.
Temp is dropping slowly everywhere but the dew points are stiill worryingly high at circa 3c given that the wind is already starting to back easterly -currently ESE here.

It's actually risen not fallen in the past few hours but I'm putting that down to the fact that it's a sea influence and it should drop off markedly later and before tomorrow morning as more and more Hans Christian anderson is dragged into the flow

I wont comment on saturdays winds - lets get the easterly out of the way first as it is after all the subject of the thread.

ninebeanrows

You can see the cold air digging in across southern England on the latest Sat Pic.