Vicious Storm likely this Saturday/Sunday

ninebeanrows

Model Output today is particularly concerning with regard to a extremely severe storm which is set to
develop off the west coast this Weekend and push across Ireland.

The Low is set to fall as low as 955mb with incredibly tight isobars.

Fortunately to some degree the Storm is expected to eas somewhat as it moves onshore, however
this storm is changing dramatically between runs and has been continually upgraded.

If it hit shore at its peak it would be the worst storm to hit our shores since the Christmas storms
of 2000 or even before then.

Snowbie

That looks nasty.Depending on track the southern flank has its severist winds.If it moves over NI we are in for a blowy few hours across the majority of the country.

Damomanye

ohh interesting stuff. i love how tightly wraped it looks.i see that is middays run.How long does it take for 6pms run to be uploaded?

Snowbie

Roughly the 18z is 2100,give or take

boardsdotie

What can we expect in Limerick.

Should I stay home with the wife and kids or go to my Christmas Party

rc28

Apparently we could see 130km/h gusts tonight. I have no idea where this weather came from though- the 9:30pm radar echo for NI showed widespread torrential rain.
http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=42348&st=51&start=51
http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=42377&st=17&start=17

Takeshi_Kovacs

Pretty windy out there now

rc28

Yup, winds definitely getting up now suddenly. currently 69mph winds off cork coast and 60mph in shannon being recorded, not bad;
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Damomanye

ya it's pickin up here too.

From the Met via MeteoAlarm,
For:
Connacht
Leinster
Munster

Valid from 06.12.2007 20:18:11 CET Until 07.12.2007 23:59:59 CET
Wind Awareness Level: Orange

maximum-wind-speed 110-133 kph
"Westerly winds will gust 110 to 133 kph overnight."

and

"Westerly winds, veering west to northwest, will reach gale or strong gale force overnight and during the day on all coasts of Ireland and the Irish Sea."
Issued at 22:30 on 06-Dec-2007

Trogdor

Not sure whether this should go in a different thread or not, estofex have updated their forecast, now including central and Eastern areas instead of Southern areas in the origianl forecast
http://estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2007120706_200712062144_1_forecastupdate.xml

Snowbie

Might be a bit extreme but did you see the curvature of the radar echo from NI to Dublin,that has produced some tornadic or gustnado type effect before.
Well i got hail here and when i shouldnt have,not in this setup atm which has led me to believe the above.

swalsh

extremely windy in galway atm

themadchef

Achill seriously windy too. But i think when it's such heavy rain it almost makes it feel worse.

Damomanye

jaysus..a bit of lightning here. scared the crap outta me when i was in the garden just there.

Burp Bleugh

It's fierce windy on my couch right now too....:mad:

Snowbie

Damomanye wrote: »

jaysus..a bit of lightning here. scared the crap outta me when i was in the garden just there.

Yeah i picked up a bit of lightning down near your area on my detector.

Damomanye

ya i just saw that. it didnt fork or anything, just a flash (weak) to my south and no thunder.

Burp Bleugh

Snowbie wrote: »

Yeah i picked up a bit of lightning down near your area on my detector.

My lightning rod detector went red robin there a few minutes ago too, I'm telling you it scared the b'jaysus outta me :eek::eek:

Do you have the version iyogh8o660 or the version oiyogh8o660.1 ??

I like to plug mine into my tinfoil hat sometimes :rolleyes:

boardsdotie

Geting battered with wind here in Limerick City

ian_m

It has been really windy around the Wicklow area all day today. I think it has been under estimated. Looking forward to see how the predictions for the weekend turn out...

Snowbie

Burp Bleugh wrote: »

My lightning rod detector went red robin there a few minutes ago too, I'm telling you it scared the b'jaysus outta me :eek::eek:

Do you have the version iyogh8o660 or the version oiyogh8o660.1 ??

I like to plug mine into my tinfoil hat sometimes :rolleyes:

I have the Boltek pci stormtracker using nexstorm software and the LD-250 when i get out(very rare) to chase storms via laptop and gps.
Click the link in my signature to give you an idea.

billy the squid

boardsdotie wrote: »

Geting battered with wind here in Limerick City

Chawk it down, the rain right now is something else here in Limerick.

M.T. Cranium

One thing for sure with this weekend storm, it will be near hurricane strength out around 20 W to the southwest of the low centre on Saturday, and this alone should bring in some very large waves to the southwest coast of Ireland on Saturday night, as for wind speeds on land, it all depends on the exact track, the GFS seems to be sticking to its idea that most of the strong winds will skirt around Ireland except for the far southwest and reach Cornwall and Devon but other models have been showing a slightly more northward track and that could bring storm force winds (gusting to perhaps 70 or 80 mph) across large parts of Ireland on Saturday night. Something between the two perhaps? Let's say this, even though it is only now 36 hours away, there is no place guaranteed very strong winds and no place (in Ireland or NI) guaranteed to miss out. Met Eireann seem to be waiting for the 12z runs to say much, I noticed their 0500 forecast just talks about it being windy for a time. That may be the biggest understatement since the Fish hurricane write-off. :cool:

ninebeanrows

UKM 6z shows this extremely dangerous storm at T+36 hours poised to crash into the west coast, fortunately as it does so it loses some of it's steam.

Still sustained winds in much of Connacht and Munster will be reaching 45/50mph on Saturday night with gusts to 80/85mph likely.

arctictree

Interesting times ahead. This storm could be a really big one and we need to watch its track. Looks like its gonna head directly over N. Ireland now on GFS.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn481.html

The worst winds seem to be just south of this ie Dublin.

Then next week, GFS is showing a scandi high and the start of easterlies. Time to put a bet on a white XMas??!

A

Damomanye

Met.ie have issued a weather Warning on this system...

Issued at 07 December 2007 - 12:37
Severe Weather late Saturday-Early Sunday

Very windy and at times very wet weather over the weekend with potentially stormy conditions for a time overnight Saturday and early Sunday, mainly in Connacht and Munster, with northwest winds of mean speeds 35 to 40 knots (65 to 75 km/h) with gusts of 70 to 80 knots (130 to 150 km/h) possible. Valid 00:00 to 15:00 9-Dec-2007

They're well into hurricane force gusts!

i better tie the shed onto the dog and the dog onto the cat.It's going to be messy!

Sierra Oscar

Damomanye wrote: »

Met.ie have issued a weather Warning on this system...

Issued at 07 December 2007 - 12:37
Severe Weather late Saturday-Early Sunday

Very windy and at times very wet weather over the weekend with potentially stormy conditions for a time overnight Saturday and early Sunday, mainly in Connacht and Munster, with northwest winds of mean speeds 35 to 40 knots (65 to 75 km/h) with gusts of 70 to 80 knots (130 to 150 km/h) possible. Valid 00:00 to 15:00 9-Dec-2007

They're well into hurricane force gusts!

i better tie the shed onto the dog and the dog onto the cat.It's going to be messy!

Nasty - is this on the Met site?

Damomanye

yes it is, on the warnings page

Met Warnings

Breakingnews.ie
High seas warning issued

DOCARCH

Forecast for eastern altlantic ocean areas already as follows:

Outlook until 0800 on Sat 08 Dec 2007
Violent storm or hurricane winds in west northern and West Central Sections, transferring to east northern and East Central Sections.

:eek:

Any sign of the storm shifting a little north, i.e. getting the brunt of the storm across the midlands and east?

Sierra Oscar

Damomanye wrote: »

yes it is, on the warnings page

Met Warnings

Thanks!

ninebeanrows

DOCARCH wrote: »

Forecast for eastern altlantic ocean areas already as follows:

Outlook until 0800 on Sat 08 Dec 2007
Violent storm or hurricane winds in west northern and West Central Sections, transferring to east northern and East Central Sections.

:eek:

Any sign of the storm shifting a little north, i.e. getting the brunt of the storm across the midlands and east?

GFS has been consistent in the last 2 runs in shifting the main core of winds south of here, so we will probably excape with just a breezy night.

The main core will hit Southwestern areas and along the south and southeast coast with gusts to 75knots possible.

themadchef

How does this wind compare with the really bad St Stephens day we had years ago...(not sure about ten years ago)? Roof came off the grannies house and many others down here.

ian_m

themadchef wrote: »

How does this wind compare with the really bad St Stephens day we had years ago...(not sure about ten years ago)? Roof came off the grannies house and many others down here.

How did your Granny fair out?

Sierra Oscar

Its pretty still down here in Limerick at the moment - will se see any wind tonight or will it all be tomorrow?

themadchef

ian_m wrote: »

How did your Granny fair out?

Gran had died the previous year so thank god the house was empty, but the house is next door to my parents and they were away that day, it was the most frightning experience. The window on the shed just seemed to implode too. My new fiat punto (oh god i was so proud ), first car, was parked right under the gable of the house and slates were flying everywhere.......but it was too dangerous to move it.

It caused crazy damage all across the island and i hope it's nothing i have to see again.

We are so exposed to the elements sitting right on the sea, every beauty has it beast i guess.

ninebeanrows

themadchef wrote: »

Gran had died the previous year so thank god the house was empty, but the house is next door to my parents and they were away that day, it was the most frightning experience. The window on the shed just seemed to implode too. My new fiat punto (oh god i was so proud ), first car, was parked right under the gable of the house and slates were flying everywhere.......but it was too dangerous to move it.

It caused crazy damage all across the island and i hope it's nothing i have to see again.

We are so exposed to the elements sitting right on the sea, every beauty has it beast i guess.

Was that the year we had no electricity and i had my Christmas morning fry on a tiny gas cooker thing we found in the shed!?

My scalectric was useless:o

SpitfireIV

That was Christmas eve 1997, scary day!! Frost, cold and snow I love, heavy rain and thunder I can deal with..........but strong winds, no thanks!

cazzy

A forum to talk about the weather on an Irish website. Who would have though.

Gale Force Warning: Stormy Weekend Weather For UK

By Sky News SkyNews - Friday, December 7 02:55 pmWeather forecasters are warning of severe gales this weekend across southwest England and southern and western Ireland.

ADVERTISEMENT

Anybody considering venturing out to sea across the Southwest Approaches has been warned to think again.

"Gales and storm winds will sweep across southwest Ireland and southwest Britain into the English Channel. Disturbed weather," says Sky News weather presenter Francis Wilson.

"There's no sign of snow for Christmas, but plenty of waterlogged ground."

There has already been a taste of things to come, with winds gusting over 70mph last night over Cardigan Bay and around the Isle of Wight and the Solent.

Many parts of Britain and Ireland have also been hit by torrential downpours, squalls and thunderstorms. More of the same is looming but with even stronger winds on the way for Sunday.

An active low pressure system has brought the wet and windy conditions eastwards, Sky News weather presenter Lucy Verasamy explained.

"Much of the South woke up to gales - gusts topped 83mph on the Isles of Scilly, 71mph on Aberporth, west Wales and 50mph along the southeast coast," she said.

"These strong, gusty winds were enough to cause some localised damage.

"In Essex, the winds brought chaos during rush hour as rail services were disrupted and trains were evacuated.

"In central London there were reports of fallen trees on Hampstead Heath."

The worst hit areas at the weekend are predicted to be Cornwall and Devon, and western parts of Connacht and Munster.

It was a year ago today that tornado-like winds ripped through parts of Britain, causing serious damage to buildings and property.

Supercell

The track on this one is going to be hard to nail down.
That said themadchef, you ARE going to see enormous winds there, but I guess you are used to it where you are. It it aint nailed down its going to blow away in many parts of the country tomorrow night

DOCARCH

Hurricane force winds in updated forecast/outlook now for sea areas Sole and Shannon (UKMO).

Outlook until 2000 on Sat 08 Dec 2007
Storm to hurricane force winds in Sole, Shannon, East Northern Section and East Central Section at first moderating from the west, but gales or severe gales continuing in these areas throughout the period. Gales or severe gales in Rockall, Bailey and Faeroes.

rc28

150km/h gusts? That's 93mph:eek:
Acording to the following- the low's track has been put further north in latest output.http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s=&showtopic=42377&view=findpost&p=1124686

Supercell

Tonight is the proverbial "calm before a storm".
Some people will probably die tomorrow night as a result of the storm coming. Tonight they are going about their business ..posting on forums, putting up xmas decorations, grumbling about work, wondering what to buy loved ones as presents for xmas etc etc etc

All I can say is, boardsies...dont be that person..don't drive if you dont need to tomorrow night, don't go walking by the shore, don't be driving that windy road beside the cliffs..this is a bad time of year to loose someone, tomorrow night could be the worst weather in years in many places...

If you are heading out tomorrow night :-

• Tune into the weather forecast on the car radio home from work
• Check http://www.met.ie forecasts for your area
• Check the boards weather forum for up to the minute updates on the developing situation
• If its windy...please slow down..gusts will be severe, just get home safely, your loved ones would prefer that you arrive alive.

ninebeanrows

18z moves the LP further south, looks like the brunt of the storm will stay out to sea and over Cornwall and Devon

rc28

Good advice Longfield. What time are the worst winds expected to hit tomorrow night?

ninebeanrows

rc28 wrote: »

Good advice Longfield. What time are the worst winds expected to hit tomorrow night?

To be honest i reckon we will have worse winds tonight than tomorrow night as we are likely to be under the centre of the LP tomorrow.

Really just southern and western coast will feel the wind tomorrow, will be breezy but it looks like the Storm is taking a track to far south to affect the Dublin region.

Supercell

WC hope you are right (in an Irish context - its going to be awful for many Cornish and Welsh coastal facing villages).
This thing could track either way, storms with this much energy tend to do their own thing and make up the rules along the way.
Definitely a case of check the forecasts before heading out tomorrow night for EVERYONE in IRL tomorrow.

By tomorrow morning it will be clearer, but no way in hell am i downgrading this beastie before tomorrow morning given the uncertainties around.

arctictree

At 6am Sunday morning, the LP seems to be located right over Dublin.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn361.png

What conditions would this give? Calm but very wet?? Cold or Mild??

A

ninebeanrows

Indeed Longfield

Not often we have a storm off our coast with sustained winds of 70 knots or 80mph

Supercell

arctictree wrote: »

At 6am Sunday morning, the LP seems to be located right over Dublin.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn361.png

What conditions would this give? Calm but very wet?? Cold or Mild??

A

Cold as the winds are likely to be strong.
As the centre crosses the mountains for us in the east the significant "wind shadow" effect will be negated.
East coast may not see much wind until morning Sunday but it will go from low to high pretty fast as the low clears the mountains. It all depends on the track of the low, a few degrees north or south will have massive local implications.

ian_m

this is an exciting thread...

Damomanye

eek. First rain form the system showing up on radar.

Met Radar

And so the Weekend from Hell begins!:cool: