Thunderstorms

Snowbie

Continue to post here in the event of all things thunderstorm related,wheather it be radar,maps,charts,forecasts or just simple discussions.

Weather pics(clouds,lightning) in attachments only are allowed here otherwise use [thread=2055050139]Weather pics 2007[/thread] for your snaps.

Over the months you will find some variables or terms describing suitability of storms which are:
CAPE - This is the amount of potential energy in the atmosphere. High CAPE will indicate a high chance of thunderstorms.
LI - Lifted Index (LI) displays the 'trigger' potential at the surface to initiate unstable conditions. A low or negative LI will indicate conditions for thunderstorms are favourable.
Cb-Cumulonimbus or thundercloud.
Anvil-Where the top of the Cb reaches the stratosphere and spreads out like a flat top.
Cell or Supercell-An individual storm or a violent storm.
Squall line-Multi cellular organised storms forming in a line usually ahead or parallel to cold fronts.
Embedded Storms-Storms that are contained in overcast conditions
Convection-Warm air rising,cools,condenses forming cumuli clouds.
Orographic lift-Low level winds are forced to rise against rising terrain ie:mountains.Prevailing wind on a hot summers day,this lift can produce rapid convection.
Convergence zone-usually refers to a region in the atmosphere where two prevailing winds meet and interact, usually resulting in turbulent weather.
Lapse rate steepeing-is another fancy term for instability.

If anyone has any more feel free to post them.

Hal1

Nice post, that explains a few things that I didnt fully understand. So is there still a risk of TS developing over or near our part of the world. :rolleyes::D

Snowbie

Slim chance tomorrow for the SE gradually increasing through the weekend.
Overall probability would be 30% not really that high but is meant to get warmer and a bit more humid.

Sponge Bob

Good chart of European thunderstorm activity here, updated hourly .

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rsfloc.html

Up to the minute chart of about 1.3 of Ireland here

http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/live_storm_data.htm

Trogdor

Don't forget Snowbie's one
http://www.irelandlivelightning.info/
and nowcast
http://www.nowcast.co.uk/lightning/
and blitzortung
http://www.blitzortung.org/index.php?mode=0&map=5&lang=e
and this one, probably uses the same data as wetterzentrale but i find it easier to see the intensities
https://www.nemoc.navy.mil/public/auto/obs-legacy/plot-obs-wx-stats/map.php?file=page_eur_sferics.html

fatherdougalmag

Estofex

I'll be glad if I just get a moderate rain shower thanks.

3 weeks odd and little or no rain at this time of the year is a disaster.

nacho libre

haha. It surely won't be long till the farmers start complaing about the lack of rain. Thanks for the explanation of those terms.

arctictree

Looking at the radar, there's rain getting very close to the SE coast:

http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

What are the chances of landfall???

A

Yeah before it got dark, it was looking very black to the far south east here with an obvious wall of cloud.The thick haze made it impossible to identify the type of cloud.
That rain would be nice.
The radar could be over do ing it as by all accounts going on what came out of that cloud over the south west of the UK, its mainly high based stuff with not as much as what the radar suggest actually reaching the ground.

Supercell

Unfortunately don't see any rain on the horizon for probably another week which is pretty exceptional at this time of year to have a three week drought.

Noticed a stream near me is already showing signs of drying out, surely that's very very unusual for the time of year in a mountainous area.

Also nature should be exploding with growth right now, but not seeing it as I'd expect it, trees are changing but very very slowly changing to leaf
Its certainly warm and sunny enough, but would seem that there isn't enough water.

Artictree , what do the Vartry water levels look like to you?
I saw on RTE news this evening that water rationing is happening in Kilkenny and a few other places already, to my eyes driving by water levels still seem healthy, but as a blow in dont have anything to compare to other years?

arctictree

Vartry water levels are normal - it doesn't really start dropping until June anyway. (I fish the reservoir so keep a detailed eye on it). There is a spring though in the field beside me and thats dried up - normally doesn't happen until late May.

Anyway - I'm keeping an eye on that rain. It seems to be getting closer to the SE coast with stronger echoes. Would love a drop of rain for the veggies and garden but I maybe a bit too far north for it.

Do ye remember easterly snow showers we were watching earlier in the year hoping they would reach the east coast and they went as far inland as Limerick?

A

arctictree

Edit: Oh - the latest radar image shows a blob about to hit Arklow!!

Tristrame - you could be the only part of the country that gets rain in this dry spell!!!

A

Snowbie

Snowbie wrote:

Continue to post here in the event of all things thunderstorm related,wheather it be radar,maps,charts,forecasts or just simple discussions.

Keep on topic please.Here is only for discussion about Thunderstorms and everything related to storms in my quote.

Use WC thread [thread=2055074213]here[/thread] about the present weather and its affects its having on your enviorment.
Thanks.

Indeed I see that on the radar-starry night here still though.
Oh please come ashore!

Snowbie

A couple of Wales home grown stoms forming ahead of the weak cold front.It might get electric over there and west England later on in the evening.

The big storm over south wales is already electric and the bbc weather service has a severe weather alert out for south mid and north wales for slow moving thunderstorms and flash flooding.

Some posters on the UK fora are already reporting hail and plenty of thunder over there.

mike65

Been waiting for some thundery action (want to record it) but alas...with the current weak front approaching from the NW any chance has gone I presume.

Mike.

Snowbie

Have recorded a few strikes from the N Wales storm but nothing much.All other detectors are quiet too.Nothing atm.

Snowbie

Low to moderate CAPE for tomorrow at around 350j/kg and LI gone negative.
Not enough to give full blown storms but could set off some beefy showers with maybe a rumble or two.
So far this is the highest CAPE for the month and can be blamed on high pressure for the delay.The convective month has not produced so far and would be my first April in my living memory not to produce hail or a clap of thunder.Still over a week to go though.

Trogdor

Best chance of April seems to be this Thursday going by the charts atm but all will change as we get closer i'm sure:rolleyes:

Snowbie

Weak thunderstorm in SW.Scotland.

Weather BOFH

Just heard two loud claps of thunder out in Saggart, absolutly pouring down right now.

--
nem

rc28

There appears to be plenty of activity over the northern half of Ireland atm;
http://www.meteorologica.info/lightning/lightning.jpg

rc28

Casement reporting thunder:
http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

Trogdor

Looks like some very decent convection to my North atm
Meteocentre showing 4 thunderstoms on the 15:00 chart
http://meteocentre.com/lightning/map_sfuk.php?time=1&lang=fr

Snowbie

Seems to be all quiet again.Lots of convection around with some impressive towers out over the sea.

Gonzo

really heavy shower here of rain and hail

darkman2

Looks like turning very warm next weekend and possibly thundery.

Damomanye

A lightning strike seems to have been picked up on two detectors. However both have it in a different place. One has it near Shannon while the other has it off the Cork coast.

Could this intensify?

Snowbie

Keep watching,my vote is with the gurnsey detector as been the more accurate though.He has clear line of sight.

lucernarian

I can confirm that there were a couple of claps of thunder heard here on Sunday afternoon and evening too. My sister also saw a bright flash at one stage, but not the fork itself.

darkman2

If the 6z GFS is to be believed sparks are going to fly Saturday and Sunday;)

Hal1

Im seeing some activity in the english channel heading NW.

darkman2

Looks like a real thundery period coming up from Saturday till at least Tuesday. Some big storms could develope. Temperatures in the twenties inland. Even during night time periods the CAPE and LI are condusive to storms.;)

Snowbie

That little clump of angelsey is producing several strikes.Going on for some while now and seems to be moving northwards.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

darkman2

Its from tomorrow the action starts;)

Snowbie

A good shot of embeded storms over NW France and the brest peninsula and the one in the Irish sea was a single cell storm in a maturing stage.

You can clearly see the CBs protuding through the stratocumulus on the 1700 shot over NW France.A nightmare for planes to locate and avoid these.

http://saturn.unibe.ch/rsbern/noaa/dw/realtime/current/n1bcurr.jpg

rc28

Snowbie wrote:

A good shot of embeded storms over NW France and the brest peninsula and the one in the Irish sea was a single cell storm in a maturing stage.

You can clearly see the CBs protuding through the stratocumulus on the 1700 shot over NW France.A nightmare for planes to locate and avoid these.

http://saturn.unibe.ch/rsbern/noaa/dw/realtime/current/n1bcurr.jpg

I love that site, whenever I visit it it never fails to amaze me with some crystal clear images of truly beautiful clouds. It is best though during the summer months when you can see the massive continental storms.
As you say it must be a hindrance for pilots to navigate around them but off-topic has anyone on here ever flown really close to a t-storm? Unfortunately I have never been so lucky:( to fly by one (nightime would be best)

Snowbie

For me never had the privilege of a flyby but if i did i probably be the only one on the plane to want to fly through one just to experience it.

Trogdor

Snowbie wrote:

For me never had the privilege of a flyby but if i did i probably be the only one on the plane to want to fly through one just to experience it.

Sounds like a plan, anyone know how to fly?:p
Watched Met Eireann's forecast earlier they were suggesting conaught and munster will see most of the action on Sunday. Is there not a chance of some imports from wales on this side

Snowbie

I think it be of the homgrown stuff bubbling up in the midlands and pushing westward in the east wind.But you never know we might get some sort of import if there is a strong storm over wales and instability over the sea,but this would be the exception.Convective land storms in this case.

arctictree

rc28 wrote:

As you say it must be a hindrance for pilots to navigate around them but off-topic has anyone on here ever flown really close to a t-storm? Unfortunately I have never been so lucky:( to fly by one (nightime would be best)

Yes, I was on a plane once flying over the Amazon in Brazil and there was a thunder and lightning storm going on below me. Was amazing to see sheet lighting all under the plane...

darkman2

Some showers moving into Southern counties now. Could be thunder and lightning there soon.

Damomanye

i was just about to post the same thing... it looks like a little a little clump of trouble.

Trogdor

Looks like Cork had one earlier this morning around 8/9am, it's remains are continuing across the country atm
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rsfloc2.gif

That line seems to be dying rather than pepping up.
Theres nothing really to feed it.

Some of it seems to be down over wexford.

Incidently trogdor,if any of your crew want to storm chase this summer,my contact details are on your list so drop me a line or a call.
An area from the wicklow mountains down to say mount leinster is well workable within a few hours.

Trogdor

Tristrame wrote:

That line seems to be dying rather than pepping up.
Theres nothing really to feed it.

Some of it seems to be down over wexford.

Yeh, it seems to be continuously forming just off the Wexford coast and then continuing inland by the looks of it.

Incidently trogdor,if any of your crew want to storm chase this summer,my contact details are on your list so drop me a line or a call.
An area from the wicklow mountains down to say mount leinster is well workable within a few hours.

After i'm finished with the Junior Cert:mad: , i'm off to France for a month, 2 weeks in Corsice and 2 weeks in the Alps. Should be some decent storms around over there hopefully. Certainly later in the summer if there's a favourable setup here, I'd be up for it though

darkman2

According to the GFS there should be thundery or heavy showers in the Eastern half of the country tonight. Be interesting to see if that happens. Meanwhile it looks as though temperatures may be down slightly on yesterday.

Snowbie

Tristrame wrote:

Incidently trogdor,if any of your crew want to storm chase this summer,my contact details are on your list so drop me a line or a call.

Trogdor wrote:

Certainly later in the summer if there's a favourable setup here, I'd be up for it though

Storm chase,contact details,list.:eek: Nobody telling me about this.Are we setting up a storm chasing group or do i have to still go out on me own.:(

I doubt it darkman.

I am however reasonably confident that this year will be a good one for summer storms imported and home grown.
I think I had about 12 last summer including a few home grown ones that sprouted over mt Leinster on the carlow wexford border and built right northwards over wicklow.
Thats a good convergence zone.