Laying down AA Pre Flop

Gholimoli

Flipper wrote:

gholimoli, I respect your ideas and comments and from what I hear, you're a soild tourney player with consistent results. Now without disecting the play any further, all I have to say is that every single person on this forum plays a different way. If we all followed the exact same playing methods and stuck to it, no one would ever win - because the skill element would be eliminated (we would all have the same "skill" level). Eventually, the house would get every penny in rake as it travels around in circles.

The way things stand, (from the figures I've heard) 93% of players are losing overall. That means that the small group of winners (7%) must be doing something different to the losers.

The beauty of poker is that it is infinate in possibilities and permutations. Anyone could sit in their bedroom all day and all night gobbling up Sklansky and spewing up facts and figures about +/- EV and all that bulls**t but how many of those players are getting out there and making it work. Not many I presume.

I didn't expect anyone to agree with folding AA in that situation and I took loads of stick in Cork over it for weeks but my style of play works for me so maybe you should give a thought to the fact that there IS more ways to play than yours. And some of them are winning ways too!

Flipper,
I don’t disagree that there are different ways of playing poker and win at it. But just because you win does not mean you are playing poker correctly.
EV and poker theory is not wrong .you can discard them. If ppl can’t make it work out there is either because they don’t understand it correctly or they are playing against people who understand it better than them. That’s why in either case they are making more mistakes than opponents and hence losing.
This thread started by some wanting to know if its correct to fold AA. He was looking for advice .the advice you gave was wrong and it will end up costing people money if they were to follow it. This is a fact and it’s not style dependent.
I don’t play a certain way .i try to play correctly against the situation. Here you described a situation but playing the way you did was incorrect in that situation.
And that’s all I’m trying to say .im not criticising any ones playing ability/style or saying one style is better than the other.
Now because there a lot of different situations and circumstances that occur in poker you cant obviously go through them all and say this is what you do when this happens.
Instead you try and understand the concepts and the underlying theory, which applies, and one should consider when making these decisions.
Sklansky and other good writers try to teach you that reasoning so that you can adapt to all these different situations.

Norwich Fan Rob

this is crazy, the difference between folding and calling is huge.......
its not even remotely close.
I cant think of many better times to call with AA in fact.

Yes, one hand many crack AA, but the odds of 2 hands (especially 3 handed, remember its not full ring), splitting the pot, and beating AA are VERY big.

Therefore, we are already gtd 2nd, more or less.

We will win this tourney 83% of the time with a call (gholis figs are correct)

We will win the tourney 55% of the time with a fold.

We will come 2nd at least almost all the time. (unless for eg both villians have identical pockets or 1 identical card and make a str8)

How is this in any way unclear ?????

(ps gholi I took down that tribecca freezeout last night, thanks for 1/2 your stack :P)

Gholimoli

lenny_leonard wrote:

If you're using ICM then you do. Your share, percentage, or whatever, is calculated on the total prize money for the three places (which is what I missed in the first place). Follow this example here: http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/lesson.html, and see how it works out for you.

Lenny,
In a nut shell what ICM says is assuming all players are of the same skill level then:
for example there are 3 people left in the tourney ,the chances of one of them winning is his stack/total chips in play.
So for example if player has 50K stack and there are 150K chips in play then this player has 50/150 or 1/3 chances of winning this.
Now in this example we don’t really need to consider third prise or second prise because we already have them .we are considering how much more/less we could make by calling or folding. we cant possibly be making less than the third prise so we don’t really need to calculate it(its not wrong to do its just extra work ).
By the same token we are guaranteed second prise as well.(assuming that if we fold one of the other two loses and if we call on of the other two still loses).
So in this case all we need to do is to calculate our chances of getting the first place because that’s the only real uncertainty at the moment.

Gholimoli

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

this is crazy, the difference between folding and calling is huge.......
its not even remotely close.
I cant think of many better times to call with AA in fact.

Yes, one hand many crack AA, but the odds of 2 hands (especially 3 handed, remember its not full ring), splitting the pot, and beating AA are VERY big.

Therefore, we are already gtd 2nd, more or less.

We will win this tourney 83% of the time with a call (gholis figs are correct)

We will win the tourney 55% of the time with a fold.

We will come 2nd at least almost all the time. (unless for eg both villians have identical pockets or 1 identical card and make a str8)

How is this in any way unclear ?????

(ps gholi I took down that tribecca freezeout last night, thanks for 1/2 your stack :P)

n1 Rob.
i was watching till it got HU and after that i knew it was yours .
you man had no clue what so ever.
i had built up my stack nicely after leaving your table up to 7K and then that muppet knocked me back to 1.5K .he raised UTG and i flat called from button with AK.
flop comes AK9 .he checks i bet .he calls.
turn is a blank.he checks i bet pot which was half my stack.
river is another 9 and he bets small and i call leaving my self with 1.5K .he shows 89.

Norwich Fan Rob

yeah he was brutal alright, hadnt a clue HU, just in chat he claims he won a bracelet in 1997 in WSOP $1500 NLH game, for $225k..........

saw him with rediculous chip lead on FT on 200 game the night b4 also, but anything ive seen of him, hes been awful.

Anyone else know anything about.........."the Pirate"

Flipper

5starpool wrote:

Are you honestly saying that you still think this is a correct fold preflop as opposed to a good fold based on the isolated result of this hand? Are you saying that Phil Ivey for example (another of the the 7% presumably) would fold this preflop also despite all analysis showing this not to be the right decision mathematically?

Ok, when I first posted on this thread, I was simply telling the story of one situation recently where I folded AA pre-flop. Thought I'd mention it as it seemed pretty relevant to the thread. I DID NOT come on here proclaiming it to be the greatest play ever made. It's just something I decided to do on the day. I thought it might be an interesting debate (which it is).

When I mentioned 93%/7%, I just wanted to highlight the realistic figures of peoples' profit and loss. After all, when's the last time someone told you they were always losing online??? Seems to me that if you believed everything you hear, you'd be forgiven for thinking that playing poker is free money! People are not honest with each other for the most part and more importantly, with themselves. I myself lost a lot online over a period of a year before finally becoming a winning player. It took a lot of patience to turn it around but for the last 6 months, I've been winning consistently. Since January, I'm WELL ahead of where I was then. But I guess you might think I'm just another part of the 93% bracket trying to cover up his losses... or so g-knome thinks!

The post wasn't meant to sound arrogant at all... I'm not even saying I was right in folding but it's what I did that time and it worked out ok. As someone already said, if it all blew up in my face, I probably wouldn't even be posting it!!

Also, I still do think you are wrong in saying that tourney chips are less valuable than cash chips. First off, you only get one shot in a tourney. In a cash game, you would never sit down (i hope not) with your entire bankroll. If you lose what's in front of you, you can always rebuy. In a freezeout, your chips ARE your entire bankroll. That's why I think they are more valuable.

jacQues

Flipper wrote:

I didn't expect anyone to agree with folding AA in that situation and I took loads of stick in Cork over it for weeks but my style of play works for me so maybe you should give a thought to the fact that there IS more ways to play than yours. And some of them are winning ways too!

I agree to the fold and would probably do the same. Note that it depends highly on my read (if any) of the other two players involved.

Most players here are excellent poker players but play mainly cash. While there's nothing wrong with that they sometimes cannot see past the "EV rule". If the blinds were truly high, calling and losing makes winning the tournament difficult (read: luck based). Whereas folding and going heads-up having 55% and the opponent 45% of the chips is working towards winning the whole thing. Sure you can win this hand too, so it highly depends on your read of the two players already all-in.

Playing to get second is -EV. Calling knowing there is a good chance of losing still guarantees you second place, but what chance do you have then? Playing to win is +EV. Sometimes calling is right, sometimes folding. Percentages don't bother me much. There is no way to calculate them correctly without a good read. I never use the "random hand table" either. The following questions are more important to me:

Are they in tilt mode because of the high blinds?
Will they resume normal play once heads-up?

They can have mid. pocket pairs, suited connecter, anything really. They can easily make a set or two pair. Against one all-in its a call. But if you call here and lose expect open pushes heads-up, unless very lucky you'll be second because of the blinds. Folding is +EV IMHO, as you are playing to win, not to get second.

Do they only push with decent hands?
Did they wait until they got a good hand?

You need a good read, but say you feel one has AK and the other KK the decision is easy. If you call and lose they won't open push heads-up every hand giving you a fighting chance. Calling is +EV as you are playing with good odds.

Hope this makes sense, whether or not you agree. I realise that it may be as weird as saying that AK is better hand pre-flop than AA in a tournament. AA may be a call-anything-in-any-situation-pre-flop-heck-go-all-in-yourself hand for cash games. But tournaments are almost a different game.

jacQues

jacQues

Flipper wrote:

When I mentioned 93%/7%, I just wanted to highlight the realistic figures of peoples' profit and loss. After all, when's the last time someone told you they were always losing online???

See this post.

5starpool

jacQues wrote:

I agree to the fold and would probably do the same. Note that it depends highly on my read (if any) of the other two players involved.

Most players here are excellent poker players but play mainly cash. While there's nothing wrong with that they sometimes cannot see past the "EV rule". If the blinds were truly high, calling and losing makes winning the tournament difficult (read: luck based). Whereas folding and going heads-up having 55% and the opponent 45% of the chips is working towards winning the whole thing. Sure you can win this hand too, so it highly depends on your read of the two players already all-in.

I don't understand this. Why do you need a read? You know you are ahead of them both. Tiny possibility of holding the same hand but this is not something you should really factor in.

Also, with the blinds being huge does it matter that much that you hold a 55-45 chip lead here? 1 hand at 67.75/32.25 (other possibility if you call and lose) could see you double up if you are in no choice territory. One way or another I can't see your point.

Gholimoli

jacQues wrote:

I agree to the fold and would probably do the same. Note that it depends highly on my read (if any) of the other two players involved.

Most players here are excellent poker players but play mainly cash. While there's nothing wrong with that they sometimes cannot see past the "EV rule". If the blinds were truly high, calling and losing makes winning the tournament difficult (read: luck based). Whereas folding and going heads-up having 55% and the opponent 45% of the chips is working towards winning the whole thing. Sure you can win this hand too, so it highly depends on your read of the two players already all-in.

Playing to get second is -EV. Calling knowing there is a good chance of losing still guarantees you second place, but what chance do you have then? Playing to win is +EV. Sometimes calling is right, sometimes folding. Percentages don't bother me much. There is no way to calculate them correctly without a good read. I never use the "random hand table" either. The following questions are more important to me:

Are they in tilt mode because of the high blinds?
Will they resume normal play once heads-up?

They can have mid. pocket pairs, suited connecter, anything really. They can easily make a set or two pair. Against one all-in its a call. But if you call here and lose expect open pushes heads-up, unless very lucky you'll be second because of the blinds. Folding is +EV IMHO, as you are playing to win, not to get second.

Do they only push with decent hands?
Did they wait until they got a good hand?

You need a good read, but say you feel one has AK and the other KK the decision is easy. If you call and lose they won't open push heads-up every hand giving you a fighting chance. Calling is +EV as you are playing with good odds.

Hope this makes sense, whether or not you agree. I realise that it may be as weird as saying that AK is better hand pre-flop than AA in a tournament. AA may be a call-anything-in-any-situation-pre-flop-heck-go-all-in-yourself hand for cash games. But tournaments are almost a different game.

jacQues

man this makes no sense at all.
where are you coming up with this?


"I realise that it may be as weird as saying that AK is better hand pre-flop than AA in a tournament. AA may be a call-anything-in-any-situation-pre-flop-heck-go-all-in-yourself hand for cash games. But tournaments are almost a different game."

you must be joking with this right?
whats different about them then?


can you explian what effect the blind size have on this?

you have all of this wrong man?
this post is so so flawed i donno where to start.

jacQues

5starpool wrote:

Also, with the blinds being huge does it matter that much that you hold a 55-45 chip lead here? 1 hand at 67.75/32.25 (other possibility if you call and lose) could see you double up if you are in no choice territory. One way or another I can't see your point.

Flipper wrote:

I had 55% of the chips in play

Hence, if you fold you still have >50% right?
If you call and get outdrawn (because YES you're ahead) you'll have ~25%...

jacQues

Scouser in Dub

if you are outdrawn you still have 32.5% of the chips

5starpool

you will have 32.5% (.25% modified from earlier post) of chips if you call and lose.

55% beforehand against 2 even stacked players so they have 22.5 each. You call, you lose you have lost 22.5% so you have 32.5% left so 2-1 behind in chips. If it is a crap shoot anyhow and you lose the first hand in a push first hand you are down to 90-10 behind. Where does that leave you? Do you ever play AA in a multiway pot?

jacQues

5starpool wrote:

you will have 32.5% (.25% modified from earlier post) of chips if you call and lose.

55% beforehand against 2 even stacked players so they have 22.5 each. You call, you lose you have lost 22.5% so you have 32.5% left so 2-1 behind in chips. If it is a crap shoot anyhow and you lose the first hand in a push first hand you are down to 90-10 behind. Where does that leave you? Do you ever play AA in a multiway pot?

Both players went all-in before he acted, hence he must have been BB. And the blinds were huge. 30% at max but probably more like 27.5%...

jacQues

Scouser in Dub

If they have gone all in with 22.5% his bb will contribute to his call leaving him with 32.5% surely?

Two people in the pot with 22.5% of the chips he calls 67.5% of the chips are in the pot where is the other 32.5%?

Anyway if the Blinds are as huge as you imply then there is more reason to call.

eoghan104

Scouser in Dub wrote:

If they have gone all in with 22.5% his bb will contribute to his call leaving him with 32.5% surely?

Two people in the pot with 22.5% of the chips he calls 67.5% of the chips are in the pot where is the other 32.5%?

Anyway if the Blinds are as huge as you imply then there is more reason to call.

The other 32.5% are sitting in front of flipper!!

jacQues

Scouser in Dub wrote:

If they have gone all in with 22.5% his bb will contribute to his call leaving him with 32.5% surely?

Two people in the pot with 22.5% of the chips he calls 67.5% of the chips are in the pot where is the other 32.5%?

Anyway if the Blinds are as huge as you imply then there is more reason to call.

Right lol I confused folding the BB and calling with each other there. Silly me.

Not sure about that. If its gonna be an all-in luck-fest I rather have just over 50% in order to be able to wait for an ace or king... but you may be right. It may be one of those situations where you cannot tell unless actually you're in it.

jacQues

5starpool

so you would rather go all in with K6 heads up against an unknown hand than take on 2 all-ins with AA 3 handed? Madness. This is not one of those situations where you have to think about anything.

jacQues

5starpool wrote:

so you would rather go all in with K6 heads up against an unknown hand than take on 2 all-ins with AA 3 handed? Madness. This is not one of those situations where you have to think about anything.

Very good point indeed. Another pull towards calling there.

jacQues

Scouser in Dub

but if the consensus is to play the aces three handed what would be the criteria for throwing it away?

5starpool

If I was the short stack here with say 10% of chips and the prizes were something like:

1. 500000
2. 250000
3. 100000

and the other 2 guys had gone all in and had the same number of chips, then I would consider folding AA due to the money involved. If you knock a couple of zeros of the above prizes then I definitely call hoping to get heads up with 30% of chips in play.

Even in the above example though it would only be an act of cowardice folding when I know I have a big edge and I would be only playing for second place in that example, and I would have been money oriented by admitting that 150000 is a lot of extra money to pass up.

ArmaniJeanss

Scouser in Dub wrote:

but if the consensus is to play the aces three handed what would be the criteria for throwing it away?

If the payout structure was X/X/Zero, then you can throw your A's.

Gholimoli

Folks,
The arguments given in this example for folding AA here is pure madness and will do nothing but lose you money.
I’m not getting personal but none of the arguments have any validity or merit and are suffer from a very confused reasoning to say the least.
Things such as “reads” or “you have to be there to understand “ don’t have any impact on the decision making process here.
Blind size does not have an effect here and what was said about “if blinds are high then fold” could not be more off. If anything the higher the blinds the more you should call as it makes the ranges of other hands wider and also when blinds are high then 50% of the chips in play don’t mean as much as if the blinds were lower.
This is not a typical example of how tourney is played different than cash games.
EV is EV no matter what type poker you play. Poker is a wager and that’s exactly what you’re doing with all your actions and all your actions have a certain EV.
This is not a rule that applies to “cash games” but not to “tournaments”.
This is a simple a very simple math problem that shows which moves give you a higher EV.
To be honest if you never fold AA pre-flop ever you haven’t made that much of a mistake at all as the situations that arise that make it correct to fold happens so rarely that you need not bother with learning them.

Norwich Fan Rob

i cannot believe some of the stuff some people are putting in this post.

How can u even dream of folding AA to leave yourself 55% of chips in a crap shoot situation, whereby u are most likely all in in the next few hands anyway, with Ax or a small pair !!!!!

This AA situation is by FAR the best chance u will have to win this tourney here and now in terms of an edge.

AND even u if get cracked, u still have 30% of the chips in play and in crapshoot mode that still gives u a decent chance to win !!!!

3/4s of the time this ends here and now, and of the other 25% of the time u get get cracked, u still win some of those by making a comeback.

If u fold here, u will win around half the time.

How is this concept so hard to grasp.

U cannot get a bigger edge in a 3 handed crapshoot than having AA pre flop !!!

This folding talk in this specific example is absolutely crazy speak, i cant emphasise this enough.

Flipper

Gholimoli wrote:

To be honest if you never fold AA pre-flop ever you haven’t made that much of a mistake at all as the situations that arise that make it correct to fold happens so rarely that you need not bother with learning them.

Totally true. It just so happened I chose to do something different that time. I humbly apologise for straying from the strict rules of play. I'm sorry I mentioned it at all.

ntlbell

Flipper wrote:

Totally true. It just so happened I chose to do something different that time. I humbly apologise for straying from the strict rules of play. I'm sorry I mentioned it at all.

Doing something different is not the issue here, it's choosing to do something "different" for the wrong reasons then trying to justify it with nonsense talk.

connie147

Three handed, I cant think of any situation where id fold aces pre flop.

CharlieAsh

connie147 wrote:

Three handed, I cant think of any situation where id fold aces pre flop.

Three handed with a gun to my head and a promise of a threesome with Jessica Alba and her filthy minded best mate, i still couldn't fold AA pre-flop

ntlbell

CharlieAsh wrote:

Three handed with a gun to my head and a promise of a threesome with Jessica Alba and her filthy minded best mate, i still couldn't fold AA pre-flop

Charlie you wouldn't drop Ax never mind AA

Frank Rizzo

ive never laid down an AA pre flop.... will always stay in and probably come in over the top pre flop with it aswell... lost 3 outa 4 times aswell...lol...