Laying down AA Pre Flop

Scouser in Dub

Was reading Hellmuth suggest he can see the time when he will do this and was wondering what the criteria for making the move would be.

Obviously a number of raises PF obviously a read that the cards, the other A's are in other peoples hands would be necessary but can't see this myself

shoutman

Have a peek at this:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=257651

MadsL

Sklansky sez...
FT - 5 players left and you are the extreme shorty. 1 CL and everyone else has equal chips.
Middle stack moves all-in and is called by 2 other middle stacks.
You look down at aces.
Folding is +EV cus if you lose the hand you will be out in 5th, folding you are guaranteeing 3rd. Even if you play the hand and win you are still up against two monster stacks with few chips. And yur aces will be cracked about half the time in a multiway pot.

Flipper

It's certainly possible to lay down AA pre-flop in certain situations. I didn't a few months back in the €200 freezeout in the Macau. Down to three players, I had 55% of the chips in play with the other two being almost exactly even. I was on the BB and found AA. The button and the SB both moved all in and before insta-calling, I took a look at the prize breakdown. It was something like €3,200 for 1st, €2,100 for 2nd and only €900 for 3rd. I showed everyone the Aces and mucked them - knowing that I would certainly move up the prize-ladder by one notch WITHOUT damaging my 55% lead in chips. It turned out to be AK vs AQ and latter took it down with a smelly flush. I went on to win it out.

Gholimoli

Flipper wrote:

It's certainly possible to lay down AA pre-flop in certain situations. I didn't a few months back in the €200 freezeout in the Macau. Down to three players, I had 55% of the chips in play with the other two being almost exactly even. I was on the BB and found AA. The button and the SB both moved all in and before insta-calling, I took a look at the prize breakdown. It was something like €3,200 for 1st, €2,100 for 2nd and only €900 for 3rd. I showed everyone the Aces and mucked them - knowing that I would certainly move up the prize-ladder by one notch WITHOUT damaging my 55% lead in chips. It turned out to be AK vs AQ and latter took it down with a smelly flush. I went on to win it out.

this certainly isnt a place to laydown AA.
you could have taken down the thing there and then.also your 55% chip lead wiil certainly be gone when one of the other two wins the hand.

Norwich Fan Rob

multi seat satellites when u are medium stacked and its near the bubble is a time when laying down AA pre flop can be +EV.

ArmaniJeanss

Flipper wrote:

Down to three players, I had 55% of the chips in play with the other two being almost exactly even. I was on the BB and found AA. The button and the SB both moved all in and before insta-calling, I took a look at the prize breakdown. It was something like €3,200 for 1st, €2,100 for 2nd and only €900 for 3rd. I showed everyone the Aces and mucked them - knowing that I would certainly move up the prize-ladder by one notch WITHOUT damaging my 55% lead in chips.

So you can (a) call and most likely win the tourney there and then, or (b) call and be outdrawn but move up to 2nd guaranteed with 30% of the chips.
And you folded !!!. Thats bad.

Norwich Fan Rob

ArmaniJeanss wrote:

So you can (a) call and most likely win the tourney there and then, or (b) call and be outdrawn but move up to 2nd guaranteed with 30% of the chips.
And you folded !!!. Thats bad.

Was just going to say, the chances of 2 random hands 3 handed, both outdrawing AA are not high.
And theres also the chance the other 2 will end up with some kind of split pot also. (Imagining how sick it would be if they both had KK !!)
An even if u lose, one double up HU and u back in front.

Gholimoli

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

Was just going to say, the chances of 2 random hands 3 handed, both outdrawing AA are not high.
And theres also the chance the other 2 will end up with some kind of split pot also. (Imagining how sick it would be if they both had KK !!)
An even if u lose, one double up HU and u back in front.

TBH that post was actually really funny. the reasoning was all over the place.

1) Moving up a place in the prise
Even if he called and lost he would move up a place anyway (unless they some how managed to have a split pot winning hand against AA)

2) Didn’t want to let my chip lead get damaged
50% lead over the other two. Assuming the other two had same size stack (which they prob did as OP said staying out of the hand will move him up a place automatically which means if any of them lose the hand they get knocked out which means they have same stack size) .this 50% will be gone cuz who ever wins the hand has now got the other stack and now is equal with us.

Hitman Actual

Gholimoli wrote:

this certainly isnt a place to laydown AA.
you could have taken down the thing there and then.also your 55% chip lead wiil certainly be gone when one of the other two wins the hand.

It's closer than it looks, but its still not a good fold, assuming my maths is right:

3-handed, assume stacks are 55K, 22.5K, 22.5K. Prize pool is 3200, 2100, 900 (6200 total). To make it easy, assume no split pots. Also assume that (at least) one player is getting knocked out in this clash. So the hand plays out as follows:

1. Fold. It goes 2-handed, and we have a 55K-45K lead. The prize pool also changes to 3200/2100 which gives a €EV of €2750 using ICM. (http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html).

2. Call and win. Game over, win €3200.

3. Call and lose. Goes 2-handed, and we're now behind 67.5K to 32.5K. The prize pool is now at 3200/2100, giving a €EV of €2455.

So for 2 and 3 above, assuming that AA is abut a 75% favourite against the other two all-ins:

€EV = .75*(€3200) + .25*(€2455) = €3013

So folding costs about €250. If this maths is correct, then it indicates that there are a lot of hands worth folding with the top-heavy prize structures that we generally play for.

Flipper

I knew that by calling I would be committing half my stack. If either player outdraws me, I still go heads up but with only 30% of the chips. One factor that I forgot to mention is that the blinds were huge at that point and I felt that if I dropped back to 30% (worst case) I would need to get lucky to do any better that 2nd place (because there would have been very little play left). If I fold, I'm GUARANTEED to go heads up (provided no split pot) with over 50% of the chips and improve my chances of winning the tourney outright - as there would be a lot more play + I figured I'd have the edge heads up.

Now I know I'm leaving out the possibility that i'd end the tourney right there and then by calling and busting the two of them but if both had pocket pairs for example, I'd only be about 1/2 to win the hand. With the play I was leaving in the game heads up, I made myself that price to win anyway - without ANY risk of being 2 to 1 against in chips.

Gholimoli

lenny_leonard wrote:

It's closer than it looks, but its still not a good fold, assuming my maths is right:

3-handed, assume stacks are 55K, 22.5K, 22.5K. Prize pool is 3200, 2100, 900 (6200 total). To make it easy, assume no split pots. Also assume that (at least) one player is getting knocked out in this clash. So the hand plays out as follows:

1. Fold. It goes 2-handed, and we have a 55K-45K lead. The prize pool also changes to 3200/2100 which gives a €EV of €2750 using ICM. (http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html).

2. Call and win. Game over, win €3200.

3. Call and lose. Goes 2-handed, and we're now behind 67.5K to 32.5K. The prize pool is now at 3200/2100, giving a €EV of €2455.

So for 2 and 3 above, assuming that AA is abut a 75% favourite against the other two all-ins:

€EV = .75*(€3200) + .25*(€2455) = €3013

So folding costs about €250. If this maths is correct, then it indicates that there are a lot of hands worth folding with the top-heavy prize structures that we generally play for.

stacks
55K

22.5K

22.5K


First 3200
Second 2100

What you have to do is consider the difference between folding and calling and see which one has the higher EV.
Assuming no split pot and if you fold one of the players will deffo get knocked out and will also have the same stack as you then:

No matter what we do we are getting the prise for second anyway .so we are going to have to calculate which moves give us the higher chance of getting first place.


EV folding :
We fold we get the second place and seen as now we have the same stack size as the other player then according to ICM(assuming same skill level which isn’t hard in HU) then we have a 50% of winning first place:

EV folding=50%x3200=1600

EV of calling:
If we call we have 75%(assuming AA is 75% fav against their range. in this case I think it is) of winning 3200 and if we lose then our stack is 33.5K against 66.5K .
Of those 25% that we lose the hand then according to ICM we have 33.5% of winning the 3200 again so:

EV= 75%x3200 + 9%x3200 = 2688

As you can there is a huge difference.

Gholimoli

Flipper wrote:

I knew that by calling I would be committing half my stack. If either player outdraws me, I still go heads up but with only 30% of the chips. One factor that I forgot to mention is that the blinds were huge at that point and I felt that if I dropped back to 30% (worst case) I would need to get lucky to do any better that 2nd place (because there would have been very little play left). If I fold, I'm GUARANTEED to go heads up (provided no split pot) with over 50% of the chips and improve my chances of winning the tourney outright - as there would be a lot more play + I figured I'd have the edge heads up.

Now I know I'm leaving out the possibility that i'd end the tourney right there and then by calling and busting the two of them but if both had pocket pairs for example, I'd only be about 1/2 to win the hand. With the play I was leaving in the game heads up, I made myself that price to win anyway - without ANY risk of being 2 to 1 against in chips.

If you call your pretty much guaranteed to go HU as well.

This makes no sense at all flipper.
The size of the blinds have nothing to do with it.
It’s the prise structure and the chances of your hand winning against theirs.
Whether or not the blinds were high or low has nothing to do with it.
If say you think your hand was 50% to win against their range:

If you fold you go in to the HU even stack with the winner of the hand so you have 50% of winning it.

EV=50%x3200=1600

If you call you have 50% of winning there and if you lose you go in to HU with 30% chips as you say which gives you 30% of winning it so:

EV=50%x3200 + 16%x3200 =1600 +512

Hitman Actual

Gholimoli wrote:

stacks
55K

22.5K

22.5K


First 3200
Second 2100

What you have to do is consider the difference between folding and calling and see which one has the higher EV.
Assuming no split pot and if you fold one of the players will deffo get knocked out and will also have the same stack as you then:

No matter what we do we are getting the prise for second anyway .so we are going to have to calculate which moves give us the higher chance of getting first place.


EV folding :
We fold we get the second place and seen as now we have the same stack size as the other player then according to ICM(assuming same skill level which isn’t hard in HU) then we have a 50% of winning first place:

EV folding=50%x3200=1600

EV of calling:
If we call we have 75%(assuming AA is 75% fav against their range. in this case I think it is) of winning 3200 and if we lose then our stack is 33.5K against 66.5K .
Of those 25% that we lose the hand then according to ICM we have 33.5% of winning the 3200 again so:

EV= 75%x3200 + 9%x3200 = 2688

As you can there is a huge difference.

I'll have a look at that after lunch (!!), but I dont think that's how you use ICM. You just plug in stack sizes and prize pool payouts, and it gives you your total 'share' of the prize pool at that point. I think you're using a combination of ICM and Sklansky's 3-way deal method from TPFAP, but I'm not sure. Anyway, it's lunch-time.

Flipper

I understand what you're saying and all the theory is correct but as you know, in a tournament your chips are much more valuable than in say, a cash game. Once they're lost, you can's rebuy or get them back. It might be the right move IN THEORY to call with the AA and mathmatically be the favourite but as you know, AA will be busted frequently in a multi-way. By folding, I'm controlling my faith in the heads-up and also the stacks.

I never felt that poker was just about putting your chips in the middle with the best hand. A good player will plan ahead to the next few hands and that's what I did here.

BTW, it worked.

NickyOD

MadsL wrote:

Sklansky sez...
FT - 5 players left and you are the extreme shorty. 1 CL and everyone else has equal chips.
Middle stack moves all-in and is called by 2 other middle stacks.
You look down at aces.
Folding is +EV cus if you lose the hand you will be out in 5th, folding you are guaranteeing 3rd. Even if you play the hand and win you are still up against two monster stacks with few chips. And yur aces will be cracked about half the time in a multiway pot.

This is dependent on the payout structure and if the payouts actually mean anything to you. If the payouts are very flat and or you are playing to win then folding is absolutely terrible, but if there are big jumps in the payouts then folding isn't so bad. Having said that if its a big tournament and you're not playing for first you shouldn't be at the table.

Flipper folding aces there was a beyond awful and your analysis is totally results oriented.

Flipper

Gholimoli wrote:

The size of the blinds have nothing to do with it.

Of course they do. If the blinds are small relative to the stacks, I have a much better chance to play my stack back up to over 50% from 30%. If the blinds are ridiculous, I'll just have to be a push-bot and move all in with anything above an average hand and hope for the best.

ArmaniJeanss

Flipper wrote:

BTW, it worked.

Flipper, Lenny post at 11.30 indicate that overall you lose about €250 folding here.
And the fact that this was one of the occasions where folding worked in your favour because the AA would have lost..This doesn't make folding a correct decision.

Flipper

ArmaniJeanss wrote:

Flipper, Lenny post at 11.30 indicate that overall you lose about €250 folding here.
And the fact that this was one of the occasions where folding worked in your favour because the AA would have lost..This doesn't make folding a correct decision.

I know that the outcome was unimportant. I was just highlighting the outcome to put the story in context.

Flipper

NickyOD wrote:

Flipper folding aces there was a beyond awful and your analysis is totally results oriented.

Of course it was. I was getting €1000 for folding. And maintaining a chip lead heads up.

Gholimoli

Flipper wrote:

I understand what you're saying and all the theory is correct but as you know, in a tournament your chips are much more valuable than in say, a cash game. Once they're lost, you can's rebuy or get them back. It might be the right move IN THEORY to call with the AA and mathmatically be the favourite but as you know, AA will be busted frequently in a multi-way. By folding, I'm controlling my faith in the heads-up and also the stacks.

I never felt that poker was just about putting your chips in the middle with the best hand. A good player will plan ahead to the next few hands and that's what I did here.

BTW, it worked.

Flipper ,
In tourney chips are not more valuable than cash games. first of all you cant really compare them but if I had my choice of having a stack of 100K in tourney chip and a 100K in cash games I would chose the cash game.
There are models that try to give you a $ value for your chips in tourney based on your stack size and prise structure etc.
One of these models is ICM which argues that your chances of winning a tourney for example when 3 handed is equal to ratio of your stack size to the total number of chips in play.
AA will not be busted frequently in a multi way pot.its wrong to think that way.
There is a certain % that AA will win or lose against to other hands depending on what those other hands maybe.
You can’t discard these facts and in fact you have to go by them because that’s how poker works.
To say “bytheway it worked” its just being result oriented. yes it worked this time but over all in you do in 10,000 times your losing a lot of money by not calling here.
Also as I said before the size of the blinds don’t factor in to this equation.
You have simple case of calling an all in and all you need to know is what happens if you call and win and what happens if you call and lose and what happens if you fold.
Blind size has nothing to do with it.
Your fold here was extremely bad fold.

also i dont understand what this comments means
"a good player will plan a few hands ahead" ????

5starpool

Flipper wrote:

Of course it was. I was getting €1000 for folding. And maintaining a chip lead heads up.

Worst case scenario preflop you would have been up against 2 PP's, and you would have been around 60-40 to win the thing there and then. Folding to pretty much guarantee a 55-45 chip lead into a crapshoot situation (if the blinds were as big as you say) is not what you want either. There is only one or two hands difference in 55-45 or 30-70. I know I would prefer combo a lead heads up, but the chance that there would be no need for heads up outweighs any other decisions you would make imo.

Goodluck2me

Flipper wrote:

BTW, it worked.

i once folded AK pre-flop to no raise and no ace or king came on the flop, so that worked too. results orientated reasoning is terrible. i doubt youd have posted it had they both the same pair. or if you would have won it outright.just imo

Hitman Actual

lenny_leonard wrote:

I'll have a look at that after lunch (!!), but I dont think that's how you use ICM. You just plug in stack sizes and prize pool payouts, and it gives you your total 'share' of the prize pool at that point. I think you're using a combination of ICM and Sklansky's 3-way deal method from TPFAP, but I'm not sure. Anyway, it's lunch-time.

Apologies Gholi, it appears that I've been using a combination of ICM and TPFAP. (But I'm still not sure of your maths!)

Anyway, I'll have another go. I forgot that the 900 for 3rd must also come into play at this point using ICM, so here goes:

1. Fold. Using ICM properly(!):
Button share = 1820
SB share = 1820
BB (Hero) share = 2558

2a. Call and win:
BB (hero) share = 3200

2b. Call and lose:
One player now has 67.5% of the chips, we have 22.5%.
BB (Hero) share = 2372
Opponent share = 2928

So using the 75% win rate for AA, which I think is close enough, calling gives:

€EV = 0.75*3200 + 0.25*2372 = €2993

So you lose about €350 in folding. Assuming this is correct.

Scouser in Dub

lenny_leonard wrote:

2b. Call and lose:
One player now has 67.5% of the chips, we have 22.5%.
BB (Hero) share = 2372
Opponent share = 2928

Hero's only risking 22.5% of our chips by calling so he has 32.5%

Flipper

gholimoli, I respect your ideas and comments and from what I hear, you're a soild tourney player with consistent results. Now without disecting the play any further, all I have to say is that every single person on this forum plays a different way. If we all followed the exact same playing methods and stuck to it, no one would ever win - because the skill element would be eliminated (we would all have the same "skill" level). Eventually, the house would get every penny in rake as it travels around in circles.

The way things stand, (from the figures I've heard) 93% of players are losing overall. That means that the small group of winners (7%) must be doing something different to the losers.

The beauty of poker is that it is infinate in possibilities and permutations. Anyone could sit in their bedroom all day and all night gobbling up Sklansky and spewing up facts and figures about +/- EV and all that bulls**t but how many of those players are getting out there and making it work. Not many I presume.

I didn't expect anyone to agree with folding AA in that situation and I took loads of stick in Cork over it for weeks but my style of play works for me so maybe you should give a thought to the fact that there IS more ways to play than yours. And some of them are winning ways too!

Goodluck2me

Flipper wrote:

gholimoli, I respect your ideas and comments and from what I hear, you're a soild tourney player with consistent results. Now without disecting the play any further, all I have to say is that every single person on this forum plays a different way. If we all followed the exact same playing methods and stuck to it, no one would ever win - because the skill element would be eliminated (we would all have the same "skill" level). Eventually, the house would get every penny in rake as it travels around in circles.

The way things stand, (from the figures I've heard) 93% of players are losing overall. That means that the small group of winners (7%) must be doing something different to the losers.

The beauty of poker is that it is infinate in possibilities and permutations. Anyone could sit in their bedroom all day and all night gobbling up Sklansky and spewing up facts and figures about +/- EV and all that bulls**t but how many of those players are getting out there and making it work. Not many I presume.

I didn't expect anyone to agree with folding AA in that situation and I took loads of stick in Cork over it for weeks but my style of play works for me so maybe you should give a thought to the fact that there IS more ways to play than yours. And some of them are winning ways too!

i agree and you have a good reputation as a player but when someone points out the maths of why it was a bad fold and how it was -ev it cant still be considered a good move imo...

Gholimoli

lenny_leonard wrote:

Apologies Gholi, it appears that I've been using a combination of ICM and TPFAP. (But I'm still not sure of your maths!)

Anyway, I'll have another go. I forgot that the 900 for 3rd must also come into play at this point using ICM, so here goes:

1. Fold. Using ICM properly(!):
Button share = 1820
SB share = 1820
BB (Hero) share = 2558

2a. Call and win:
BB (hero) share = 3200

2b. Call and lose:
One player now has 67.5% of the chips, we have 22.5%.
BB (Hero) share = 2372
Opponent share = 2928

So using the 75% win rate for AA, which I think is close enough, calling gives:

€EV = 0.75*3200 + 0.25*2372 = €2993

So you lose about €350 in folding. Assuming this is correct.

This wrong again Lenny,

First of you made the mistake of 67.5% + 22.5%=90% and not 100.

Also we don’t need to bother what third place or second place gets.
In all cases (we fold, we call and win, we call and lose) we are pretty much guaranteed second place.
So what we have to do is calculated the % of the time we get the 1st place.
Again if we fold we get first 50% of the time according to ICM (stack are now equal).

If we call and we have 75% of winning against the two hands(I actually think its less than that but taking your example) then we get the 1st place 75% that we win(note that this alone suggests that we are 25% better off ) plus when we lose we now have 33% of the chips in play which gives us a 33% of winning it again.
So of the 25% that we call and lose the hand we still have 33% of winning which is something like 8% so all together we have 33% better chance of getting first place by calling than by folding. this is huge.

Hitman Actual

Scouser in Dub wrote:

Hero's only risking 22.5% of our chips by calling so he has 32.5%

Oops, correct.

1. Fold. Using ICM properly(!):
Button share = 1820
SB share = 1820
BB (Hero) share = 2558

2a. Call and win:
BB (hero) share = 3200

2b. Call and lose:
One player now has 67.5% of the chips, we have 32.5%.
BB (Hero) share = 2455
Opponent share = 2844

So using the 75% win rate for AA, which I think is close enough, calling gives:

€EV = 0.75*3200 + 0.25*2455 = €3013

5starpool

Flipper wrote:

gholimoli, I respect your ideas and comments and from what I hear, you're a soild tourney player with consistent results. Now without disecting the play any further, all I have to say is that every single person on this forum plays a different way. If we all followed the exact same playing methods and stuck to it, no one would ever win - because the skill element would be eliminated (we would all have the same "skill" level). Eventually, the house would get every penny in rake as it travels around in circles.

The way things stand, (from the figures I've heard) 93% of players are losing overall. That means that the small group of winners (7%) must be doing something different to the losers.

The beauty of poker is that it is infinate in possibilities and permutations. Anyone could sit in their bedroom all day and all night gobbling up Sklansky and spewing up facts and figures about +/- EV and all that bulls**t but how many of those players are getting out there and making it work. Not many I presume.

I didn't expect anyone to agree with folding AA in that situation and I took loads of stick in Cork over it for weeks but my style of play works for me so maybe you should give a thought to the fact that there IS more ways to play than yours. And some of them are winning ways too!

I don't know you but I know of you, and I know you have had some impressive results, but to me part of the above sounds very arrogant.

Are you honestly saying that you still think this is a correct fold preflop as opposed to a good fold based on the isolated result of this hand? Are you saying that Phil Ivey for example (another of the the 7% presumably) would fold this preflop also despite all analysis showing this not to be the right decision mathematically?

Would you have still folded knowing you were against AK and AQ in this hand?

Also to say that you belong in the 7% of long term winners is probably not a judgement you can accurately make until several more years into your career, which I hope will be a long and sucessful one btw.

p.s calling stats and facts bullsh1t and then coming up with a 93-7 stat for the split between losers and winners is kinda ironic.

Hitman Actual

Gholimoli wrote:

Also we don’t need to bother what third place or second place gets.

If you're using ICM then you do. Your share, percentage, or whatever, is calculated on the total prize money for the three places (which is what I missed in the first place). Follow this example here: http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/lesson.html, and see how it works out for you.

Gholimoli

Flipper wrote:

gholimoli, I respect your ideas and comments and from what I hear, you're a soild tourney player with consistent results. Now without disecting the play any further, all I have to say is that every single person on this forum plays a different way. If we all followed the exact same playing methods and stuck to it, no one would ever win - because the skill element would be eliminated (we would all have the same "skill" level). Eventually, the house would get every penny in rake as it travels around in circles.

The way things stand, (from the figures I've heard) 93% of players are losing overall. That means that the small group of winners (7%) must be doing something different to the losers.

The beauty of poker is that it is infinate in possibilities and permutations. Anyone could sit in their bedroom all day and all night gobbling up Sklansky and spewing up facts and figures about +/- EV and all that bulls**t but how many of those players are getting out there and making it work. Not many I presume.

I didn't expect anyone to agree with folding AA in that situation and I took loads of stick in Cork over it for weeks but my style of play works for me so maybe you should give a thought to the fact that there IS more ways to play than yours. And some of them are winning ways too!

Flipper,
I don’t disagree that there are different ways of playing poker and win at it. But just because you win does not mean you are playing poker correctly.
EV and poker theory is not wrong .you can discard them. If ppl can’t make it work out there is either because they don’t understand it correctly or they are playing against people who understand it better than them. That’s why in either case they are making more mistakes than opponents and hence losing.
This thread started by some wanting to know if its correct to fold AA. He was looking for advice .the advice you gave was wrong and it will end up costing people money if they were to follow it. This is a fact and it’s not style dependent.
I don’t play a certain way .i try to play correctly against the situation. Here you described a situation but playing the way you did was incorrect in that situation.
And that’s all I’m trying to say .im not criticising any ones playing ability/style or saying one style is better than the other.
Now because there a lot of different situations and circumstances that occur in poker you cant obviously go through them all and say this is what you do when this happens.
Instead you try and understand the concepts and the underlying theory, which applies, and one should consider when making these decisions.
Sklansky and other good writers try to teach you that reasoning so that you can adapt to all these different situations.

Norwich Fan Rob

this is crazy, the difference between folding and calling is huge.......
its not even remotely close.
I cant think of many better times to call with AA in fact.

Yes, one hand many crack AA, but the odds of 2 hands (especially 3 handed, remember its not full ring), splitting the pot, and beating AA are VERY big.

Therefore, we are already gtd 2nd, more or less.

We will win this tourney 83% of the time with a call (gholis figs are correct)

We will win the tourney 55% of the time with a fold.

We will come 2nd at least almost all the time. (unless for eg both villians have identical pockets or 1 identical card and make a str8)

How is this in any way unclear ?????

(ps gholi I took down that tribecca freezeout last night, thanks for 1/2 your stack :P)

Gholimoli

lenny_leonard wrote:

If you're using ICM then you do. Your share, percentage, or whatever, is calculated on the total prize money for the three places (which is what I missed in the first place). Follow this example here: http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/lesson.html, and see how it works out for you.

Lenny,
In a nut shell what ICM says is assuming all players are of the same skill level then:
for example there are 3 people left in the tourney ,the chances of one of them winning is his stack/total chips in play.
So for example if player has 50K stack and there are 150K chips in play then this player has 50/150 or 1/3 chances of winning this.
Now in this example we don’t really need to consider third prise or second prise because we already have them .we are considering how much more/less we could make by calling or folding. we cant possibly be making less than the third prise so we don’t really need to calculate it(its not wrong to do its just extra work ).
By the same token we are guaranteed second prise as well.(assuming that if we fold one of the other two loses and if we call on of the other two still loses).
So in this case all we need to do is to calculate our chances of getting the first place because that’s the only real uncertainty at the moment.

Gholimoli

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

this is crazy, the difference between folding and calling is huge.......
its not even remotely close.
I cant think of many better times to call with AA in fact.

Yes, one hand many crack AA, but the odds of 2 hands (especially 3 handed, remember its not full ring), splitting the pot, and beating AA are VERY big.

Therefore, we are already gtd 2nd, more or less.

We will win this tourney 83% of the time with a call (gholis figs are correct)

We will win the tourney 55% of the time with a fold.

We will come 2nd at least almost all the time. (unless for eg both villians have identical pockets or 1 identical card and make a str8)

How is this in any way unclear ?????

(ps gholi I took down that tribecca freezeout last night, thanks for 1/2 your stack :P)

n1 Rob.
i was watching till it got HU and after that i knew it was yours .
you man had no clue what so ever.
i had built up my stack nicely after leaving your table up to 7K and then that muppet knocked me back to 1.5K .he raised UTG and i flat called from button with AK.
flop comes AK9 .he checks i bet .he calls.
turn is a blank.he checks i bet pot which was half my stack.
river is another 9 and he bets small and i call leaving my self with 1.5K .he shows 89.

Norwich Fan Rob

yeah he was brutal alright, hadnt a clue HU, just in chat he claims he won a bracelet in 1997 in WSOP $1500 NLH game, for $225k..........

saw him with rediculous chip lead on FT on 200 game the night b4 also, but anything ive seen of him, hes been awful.

Anyone else know anything about.........."the Pirate"

Flipper

5starpool wrote:

Are you honestly saying that you still think this is a correct fold preflop as opposed to a good fold based on the isolated result of this hand? Are you saying that Phil Ivey for example (another of the the 7% presumably) would fold this preflop also despite all analysis showing this not to be the right decision mathematically?

Ok, when I first posted on this thread, I was simply telling the story of one situation recently where I folded AA pre-flop. Thought I'd mention it as it seemed pretty relevant to the thread. I DID NOT come on here proclaiming it to be the greatest play ever made. It's just something I decided to do on the day. I thought it might be an interesting debate (which it is).

When I mentioned 93%/7%, I just wanted to highlight the realistic figures of peoples' profit and loss. After all, when's the last time someone told you they were always losing online??? Seems to me that if you believed everything you hear, you'd be forgiven for thinking that playing poker is free money! People are not honest with each other for the most part and more importantly, with themselves. I myself lost a lot online over a period of a year before finally becoming a winning player. It took a lot of patience to turn it around but for the last 6 months, I've been winning consistently. Since January, I'm WELL ahead of where I was then. But I guess you might think I'm just another part of the 93% bracket trying to cover up his losses... or so g-knome thinks!

The post wasn't meant to sound arrogant at all... I'm not even saying I was right in folding but it's what I did that time and it worked out ok. As someone already said, if it all blew up in my face, I probably wouldn't even be posting it!!

Also, I still do think you are wrong in saying that tourney chips are less valuable than cash chips. First off, you only get one shot in a tourney. In a cash game, you would never sit down (i hope not) with your entire bankroll. If you lose what's in front of you, you can always rebuy. In a freezeout, your chips ARE your entire bankroll. That's why I think they are more valuable.

jacQues

Flipper wrote:

I didn't expect anyone to agree with folding AA in that situation and I took loads of stick in Cork over it for weeks but my style of play works for me so maybe you should give a thought to the fact that there IS more ways to play than yours. And some of them are winning ways too!

I agree to the fold and would probably do the same. Note that it depends highly on my read (if any) of the other two players involved.

Most players here are excellent poker players but play mainly cash. While there's nothing wrong with that they sometimes cannot see past the "EV rule". If the blinds were truly high, calling and losing makes winning the tournament difficult (read: luck based). Whereas folding and going heads-up having 55% and the opponent 45% of the chips is working towards winning the whole thing. Sure you can win this hand too, so it highly depends on your read of the two players already all-in.

Playing to get second is -EV. Calling knowing there is a good chance of losing still guarantees you second place, but what chance do you have then? Playing to win is +EV. Sometimes calling is right, sometimes folding. Percentages don't bother me much. There is no way to calculate them correctly without a good read. I never use the "random hand table" either. The following questions are more important to me:

Are they in tilt mode because of the high blinds?
Will they resume normal play once heads-up?

They can have mid. pocket pairs, suited connecter, anything really. They can easily make a set or two pair. Against one all-in its a call. But if you call here and lose expect open pushes heads-up, unless very lucky you'll be second because of the blinds. Folding is +EV IMHO, as you are playing to win, not to get second.

Do they only push with decent hands?
Did they wait until they got a good hand?

You need a good read, but say you feel one has AK and the other KK the decision is easy. If you call and lose they won't open push heads-up every hand giving you a fighting chance. Calling is +EV as you are playing with good odds.

Hope this makes sense, whether or not you agree. I realise that it may be as weird as saying that AK is better hand pre-flop than AA in a tournament. AA may be a call-anything-in-any-situation-pre-flop-heck-go-all-in-yourself hand for cash games. But tournaments are almost a different game.

jacQues

jacQues

Flipper wrote:

When I mentioned 93%/7%, I just wanted to highlight the realistic figures of peoples' profit and loss. After all, when's the last time someone told you they were always losing online???

See this post.

5starpool

jacQues wrote:

I agree to the fold and would probably do the same. Note that it depends highly on my read (if any) of the other two players involved.

Most players here are excellent poker players but play mainly cash. While there's nothing wrong with that they sometimes cannot see past the "EV rule". If the blinds were truly high, calling and losing makes winning the tournament difficult (read: luck based). Whereas folding and going heads-up having 55% and the opponent 45% of the chips is working towards winning the whole thing. Sure you can win this hand too, so it highly depends on your read of the two players already all-in.

I don't understand this. Why do you need a read? You know you are ahead of them both. Tiny possibility of holding the same hand but this is not something you should really factor in.

Also, with the blinds being huge does it matter that much that you hold a 55-45 chip lead here? 1 hand at 67.75/32.25 (other possibility if you call and lose) could see you double up if you are in no choice territory. One way or another I can't see your point.

Gholimoli

jacQues wrote:

I agree to the fold and would probably do the same. Note that it depends highly on my read (if any) of the other two players involved.

Most players here are excellent poker players but play mainly cash. While there's nothing wrong with that they sometimes cannot see past the "EV rule". If the blinds were truly high, calling and losing makes winning the tournament difficult (read: luck based). Whereas folding and going heads-up having 55% and the opponent 45% of the chips is working towards winning the whole thing. Sure you can win this hand too, so it highly depends on your read of the two players already all-in.

Playing to get second is -EV. Calling knowing there is a good chance of losing still guarantees you second place, but what chance do you have then? Playing to win is +EV. Sometimes calling is right, sometimes folding. Percentages don't bother me much. There is no way to calculate them correctly without a good read. I never use the "random hand table" either. The following questions are more important to me:

Are they in tilt mode because of the high blinds?
Will they resume normal play once heads-up?

They can have mid. pocket pairs, suited connecter, anything really. They can easily make a set or two pair. Against one all-in its a call. But if you call here and lose expect open pushes heads-up, unless very lucky you'll be second because of the blinds. Folding is +EV IMHO, as you are playing to win, not to get second.

Do they only push with decent hands?
Did they wait until they got a good hand?

You need a good read, but say you feel one has AK and the other KK the decision is easy. If you call and lose they won't open push heads-up every hand giving you a fighting chance. Calling is +EV as you are playing with good odds.

Hope this makes sense, whether or not you agree. I realise that it may be as weird as saying that AK is better hand pre-flop than AA in a tournament. AA may be a call-anything-in-any-situation-pre-flop-heck-go-all-in-yourself hand for cash games. But tournaments are almost a different game.

jacQues

man this makes no sense at all.
where are you coming up with this?


"I realise that it may be as weird as saying that AK is better hand pre-flop than AA in a tournament. AA may be a call-anything-in-any-situation-pre-flop-heck-go-all-in-yourself hand for cash games. But tournaments are almost a different game."

you must be joking with this right?
whats different about them then?


can you explian what effect the blind size have on this?

you have all of this wrong man?
this post is so so flawed i donno where to start.

jacQues

5starpool wrote:

Also, with the blinds being huge does it matter that much that you hold a 55-45 chip lead here? 1 hand at 67.75/32.25 (other possibility if you call and lose) could see you double up if you are in no choice territory. One way or another I can't see your point.

Flipper wrote:

I had 55% of the chips in play

Hence, if you fold you still have >50% right?
If you call and get outdrawn (because YES you're ahead) you'll have ~25%...

jacQues

Scouser in Dub

if you are outdrawn you still have 32.5% of the chips

5starpool

you will have 32.5% (.25% modified from earlier post) of chips if you call and lose.

55% beforehand against 2 even stacked players so they have 22.5 each. You call, you lose you have lost 22.5% so you have 32.5% left so 2-1 behind in chips. If it is a crap shoot anyhow and you lose the first hand in a push first hand you are down to 90-10 behind. Where does that leave you? Do you ever play AA in a multiway pot?

jacQues

5starpool wrote:

you will have 32.5% (.25% modified from earlier post) of chips if you call and lose.

55% beforehand against 2 even stacked players so they have 22.5 each. You call, you lose you have lost 22.5% so you have 32.5% left so 2-1 behind in chips. If it is a crap shoot anyhow and you lose the first hand in a push first hand you are down to 90-10 behind. Where does that leave you? Do you ever play AA in a multiway pot?

Both players went all-in before he acted, hence he must have been BB. And the blinds were huge. 30% at max but probably more like 27.5%...

jacQues

Scouser in Dub

If they have gone all in with 22.5% his bb will contribute to his call leaving him with 32.5% surely?

Two people in the pot with 22.5% of the chips he calls 67.5% of the chips are in the pot where is the other 32.5%?

Anyway if the Blinds are as huge as you imply then there is more reason to call.

eoghan104

Scouser in Dub wrote:

If they have gone all in with 22.5% his bb will contribute to his call leaving him with 32.5% surely?

Two people in the pot with 22.5% of the chips he calls 67.5% of the chips are in the pot where is the other 32.5%?

Anyway if the Blinds are as huge as you imply then there is more reason to call.

The other 32.5% are sitting in front of flipper!!

jacQues

Scouser in Dub wrote:

If they have gone all in with 22.5% his bb will contribute to his call leaving him with 32.5% surely?

Two people in the pot with 22.5% of the chips he calls 67.5% of the chips are in the pot where is the other 32.5%?

Anyway if the Blinds are as huge as you imply then there is more reason to call.

Right lol I confused folding the BB and calling with each other there. Silly me.

Not sure about that. If its gonna be an all-in luck-fest I rather have just over 50% in order to be able to wait for an ace or king... but you may be right. It may be one of those situations where you cannot tell unless actually you're in it.

jacQues

5starpool

so you would rather go all in with K6 heads up against an unknown hand than take on 2 all-ins with AA 3 handed? Madness. This is not one of those situations where you have to think about anything.

jacQues

5starpool wrote:

so you would rather go all in with K6 heads up against an unknown hand than take on 2 all-ins with AA 3 handed? Madness. This is not one of those situations where you have to think about anything.

Very good point indeed. Another pull towards calling there.

jacQues

Scouser in Dub

but if the consensus is to play the aces three handed what would be the criteria for throwing it away?