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Very Cold, Snowy Weather Feb 28th - March 3rd 2015

  • 26-02-2015 4:50am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,348 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Folks,

    A big change is a foot in the model output from the end of this weekend. The weather is set to get a lot colder with plenty of snow in prospect for some and an easterly later in the period increasingly likely(most likely middle of next week). Frost and ice are also to make a comeback either way.

    The hallmarks of a significant period of cold weather are there. Keep up to date here as this evolves as some disruption is increasingly likely.

    Initially the problem is from the northwest as very cold and unstable air crosses the country during Saturday night. Winds will also pick up significantly giving storm like conditions particularly in the west on Saturday night but the wind will abate through Sunday. There is also the risk of frontal snow in the northern half of the country on Sunday night.

    gfs-0-96.png?0


    From then on it's a case of where the cold comes from. Initially as I say it is from the northwest and western and northern counties are at real risk of significant snowfall and snow showers should extend east as well to most places at times.

    Later winds tend to to go more northerly and then a possible easterly in most of the output and this would mean the east and northeast are more vulnerable to potential snow and disruption.

    The GFS and UKMO have now sided with this scenario although it could still change. I am comfortable though with this forecast as I think it represents the most likely outcome right now.

    It's something to be aware of and to keep up to date with for cold, wind and potential snowfall. More details from me later today including charts and synopsis etc.

    *Just to note the other thread regarding snow risk for Thursday (today) in the north west of the country.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057386993


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,988 ✭✭✭jacksie66


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,348 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    jacksie66 wrote: »
    Bollox. I land in Dublin on Saturday morning. It's over 25c here most days in Christchurch. I'm gonna freeze..

    Saturday morning will be grand. 5 or 6c. Not too bad. If you arrived on Sunday or Monday you would get more sympathy:P


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Sunday night getting more and more interesting


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,348 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Sunday night getting more and more interesting

    GFS has backed a way a little bit from the bigger frontal snow event it was progging in the last few runs but a lot of shower activity on the latest for Sunday night.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    GFS has backed a way a little bit from the bigger frontal snow event it was progging in the last few runs but a lot of shower activity on the latest for Sunday night.
    Yes as always time will tell

    Still good potential and showery is probably a safer bet than frontal with possible mild sectors


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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,348 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Yes as always time will tell

    Still good potential and showery is probably a safer bet than frontal with possible mild sectors

    No problem atm. Sunday night is when the action get going in terms of showers turning to snow. Monday and Tuesday looking very cold

    ECM0-96.GIF?26-0

    ECM0-120.GIF?26-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Must be record cold from a westerly

    Thanks to severe cold pumping down through the east US last few weeks I guess

    For those who think this winter was bad think again.
    Late February and yet to see a daffodil down here


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,027 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    Must be record cold from a westerly

    Thanks to severe cold pumping down through the east US last few weeks I guess

    For those who think this winter was bad think again.
    Late February and yet to see a daffodil down here
    Strange, our daffodils are almost flowering and the place is covered in snowdrops for the last week. The grass has had a sudden growth spurt too.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    Strange, our daffodils are almost flowering and the place is covered in snowdrops for the last week. The grass has had a sudden growth spurt too.

    Tell me about it, watching that grass grow again breaks my heart!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,668 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Must be record cold from a westerly

    Late February and yet to see a daffodil down here

    While many of us have seen very little snow, this winter has to be the coldest since 2010. We've had loads of frost, horrible wind chill factors and generally temps in the low single digits since the start of January. Im really looking forward to milder conditions hopefully once we get the next week out of the way.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    In terms of hill walking, Wednesday/Thursday looks like a good day to go in Connemara, correct?


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,721 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Tell me about it, watching that grass grow again breaks my heart!

    Not for farmers...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    RobertKK wrote: »
    Not for farmers...

    I know I know...but it's Feb!
    I need a new lawnmower....


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,348 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The trough lines are queuing up for early next week offering enhanced shower activity and it looks like on Monday and Tuesday a lot of places will do well for snow particularly at night and some heavy falls during daylight too with a little bit of inland convection at this time of year.

    fax72s.gif?2

    fax84s.gif?2


    I think snow will settle during night time hours.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,322 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    What kind of temperatures on a surface level we be looking at with this for the weekend ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,085 ✭✭✭highdef


    I think for the eastern half of the country, the best chances of lying snow would probably be due to a combination of a trough line of enhanced convection transferring across the eastern half of the country and the time being around about nightfall. As Kermit mentioned, there is enough radiation in the sun at this stage in the year for a bit of solar heating to aid any convection. That being said, that same solar heating has the negative of heating the land somewhat which makes sticking snow increasingly difficult but if a band of showers or a large clump of showers were to reach the east coast around nightfall (after being aided by solar heating previously), then there might be a chance of something half decent in the east.

    But in any case, I doubt any lying snow on any morning will last beyond noon on any given day at sea level, going by current forecast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Yes snow will certainly lie at night on both Monday and Tuesday.
    Most likely melt by day but all and all looking good.

    I've had 3 days of lying snow here already this winter so it hasn't been bad.....In fact it's been very good


  • Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    Gonzo wrote: »
    While many of us have seen very little snow, this winter has to be the coldest since 2010. We've had loads of frost, horrible wind chill factors and generally temps in the low single digits since the start of January. Im really looking forward to milder conditions hopefully once we get the next week out of the way.

    Funny, down here in Limerick (IMBY) it's been one of the snowiest winters in the last 10 years at least. Had more snow this year than 2010, which was just very cold here and not much snow.

    That's not to say it was constant whiteouts, but compared to what we normally get, we've have a good winter for a snowbie. Early next week looks good again atm!


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,087 ✭✭✭Duiske


    Looking particularly interesting for the North-West, especially on Tuesday with low temps, frequent heavy snow showers and very windy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,348 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Only indicative but Euro 4 hinting at an early start on Sunday morning for precipitation beginning to snow.

    15030112_2712.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 43,013 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    East coast gets very little again


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,348 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    East coast gets very little again

    I disagree but wait and see:cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 223 ✭✭United road


    Hope you are right Kermit.
    Looking at ME forecast they suggest some showers at times making it east, but nothing really stands out over the next few days for the east according to them.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    I am surprised there's isn't more excitement about the snow for Monday/Tuesday. Sounds like high ground will get a good snowfall and lower levels could get some blizzard like conditions. Who doesn't like a blizzard!?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,668 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I am surprised there's isn't more excitement about the snow for Monday/Tuesday. Sounds like high ground will get a good snowfall and lower levels could get some blizzard like conditions. Who doesn't like a blizzard!?

    that's because most people here live in Leinster and the risk of seeing decent snow is quite slim! A few light showers may break through some overnight dustings. Many parts of the east and Dublin may not see a single flake.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,880 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Gonzo wrote: »
    that's because most people here live in Leinster and the risk of seeing decent snow is quite slim! A few light showers may break through some overnight dustings. Many parts of the east and Dublin may not see a single flake.

    Plus anything that falls will probably be very short lived during daylight hours i would imagine, so for me, its a waste of time


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,284 ✭✭✭StewartGriffin


    Gonzo wrote: »
    that's because most people here live in Leinster and the risk of seeing decent snow is quite slim! A few light showers may break through some overnight dustings. Many parts of the east and Dublin may not see a single flake.

    True. Also MT has forecast it only for high ground, and Met eireann haven't flagged it at all yet. I think people have learned not to get too excited about some of the threads predicting snow here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,247 ✭✭✭milli milli


    I am surprised there's isn't more excitement about the snow for Monday/Tuesday. Sounds like high ground will get a good snowfall and lower levels could get some blizzard like conditions. Who doesn't like a blizzard!?


    I'm excited and I live in the west!
    Really hoping this comes true.
    I had one glorious snowday back in January. Took a day off and spent about 6 hours walking in the snow. Ended up with a bad cold from it but it was worth it!
    I felt like I was in an Alpine wonderland.
    I would love another day like that!

    Believe!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The situation on Monday Tuesday looks ripe to me for heavy snow showers esp further West.

    For my location in Cork we did very well recently under a polar westerly and thickness and uppers are even better this time.

    Yes snow will melt by day but both Monday and Tuesday mornings look whiteout to me


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Therel be snow in the west monday night as every snow morning in sligo this wintr has been a tuesday bar a friday and a sunday


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