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26-02-2015, 04:50   #1
Kermit.de.frog
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Very Cold, Snowy Weather Feb 28th - March 3rd 2015

Folks,

A big change is a foot in the model output from the end of this weekend. The weather is set to get a lot colder with plenty of snow in prospect for some and an easterly later in the period increasingly likely(most likely middle of next week). Frost and ice are also to make a comeback either way.

The hallmarks of a significant period of cold weather are there. Keep up to date here as this evolves as some disruption is increasingly likely.

Initially the problem is from the northwest as very cold and unstable air crosses the country during Saturday night. Winds will also pick up significantly giving storm like conditions particularly in the west on Saturday night but the wind will abate through Sunday. There is also the risk of frontal snow in the northern half of the country on Sunday night.




From then on it's a case of where the cold comes from. Initially as I say it is from the northwest and western and northern counties are at real risk of significant snowfall and snow showers should extend east as well to most places at times.

Later winds tend to to go more northerly and then a possible easterly in most of the output and this would mean the east and northeast are more vulnerable to potential snow and disruption.

The GFS and UKMO have now sided with this scenario although it could still change. I am comfortable though with this forecast as I think it represents the most likely outcome right now.

It's something to be aware of and to keep up to date with for cold, wind and potential snowfall. More details from me later today including charts and synopsis etc.

*Just to note the other thread regarding snow risk for Thursday (today) in the north west of the country.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showt...p?t=2057386993

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 26-02-2015 at 05:26.
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26-02-2015, 04:55   #2
 
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26-02-2015, 05:27   #3
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Originally Posted by jacksie66 View Post
Bollox. I land in Dublin on Saturday morning. It's over 25c here most days in Christchurch. I'm gonna freeze..
Saturday morning will be grand. 5 or 6c. Not too bad. If you arrived on Sunday or Monday you would get more sympathy
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26-02-2015, 10:21   #4
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Sunday night getting more and more interesting
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26-02-2015, 16:17   #5
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Originally Posted by JanuarySnowstor View Post
Sunday night getting more and more interesting
GFS has backed a way a little bit from the bigger frontal snow event it was progging in the last few runs but a lot of shower activity on the latest for Sunday night.
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26-02-2015, 16:51   #6
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GFS has backed a way a little bit from the bigger frontal snow event it was progging in the last few runs but a lot of shower activity on the latest for Sunday night.
Yes as always time will tell

Still good potential and showery is probably a safer bet than frontal with possible mild sectors
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26-02-2015, 19:08   #7
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Originally Posted by JanuarySnowstor View Post
Yes as always time will tell

Still good potential and showery is probably a safer bet than frontal with possible mild sectors
No problem atm. Sunday night is when the action get going in terms of showers turning to snow. Monday and Tuesday looking very cold



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26-02-2015, 19:15   #8
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Must be record cold from a westerly

Thanks to severe cold pumping down through the east US last few weeks I guess

For those who think this winter was bad think again.
Late February and yet to see a daffodil down here
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26-02-2015, 19:34   #9
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Originally Posted by JanuarySnowstor View Post
Must be record cold from a westerly

Thanks to severe cold pumping down through the east US last few weeks I guess

For those who think this winter was bad think again.
Late February and yet to see a daffodil down here
Strange, our daffodils are almost flowering and the place is covered in snowdrops for the last week. The grass has had a sudden growth spurt too.
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26-02-2015, 21:40   #10
 
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Strange, our daffodils are almost flowering and the place is covered in snowdrops for the last week. The grass has had a sudden growth spurt too.
Tell me about it, watching that grass grow again breaks my heart!
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26-02-2015, 21:59   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JanuarySnowstor View Post
Must be record cold from a westerly

Late February and yet to see a daffodil down here
While many of us have seen very little snow, this winter has to be the coldest since 2010. We've had loads of frost, horrible wind chill factors and generally temps in the low single digits since the start of January. Im really looking forward to milder conditions hopefully once we get the next week out of the way.
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27-02-2015, 10:03   #12
 
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In terms of hill walking, Wednesday/Thursday looks like a good day to go in Connemara, correct?
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27-02-2015, 11:08   #13
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Tell me about it, watching that grass grow again breaks my heart!
Not for farmers...
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27-02-2015, 11:14   #14
 
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Not for farmers...
I know I know...but it's Feb!
I need a new lawnmower....
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27-02-2015, 12:05   #15
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The trough lines are queuing up for early next week offering enhanced shower activity and it looks like on Monday and Tuesday a lot of places will do well for snow particularly at night and some heavy falls during daylight too with a little bit of inland convection at this time of year.






I think snow will settle during night time hours.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 27-02-2015 at 12:14.
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