Very Cold, Snowy Weather Feb 28th - March 3rd 2015

Kermit.de.frog

Folks,

A big change is a foot in the model output from the end of this weekend. The weather is set to get a lot colder with plenty of snow in prospect for some and an easterly later in the period increasingly likely(most likely middle of next week). Frost and ice are also to make a comeback either way.

The hallmarks of a significant period of cold weather are there. Keep up to date here as this evolves as some disruption is increasingly likely.

Initially the problem is from the northwest as very cold and unstable air crosses the country during Saturday night. Winds will also pick up significantly giving storm like conditions particularly in the west on Saturday night but the wind will abate through Sunday. There is also the risk of frontal snow in the northern half of the country on Sunday night.




From then on it's a case of where the cold comes from. Initially as I say it is from the northwest and western and northern counties are at real risk of significant snowfall and snow showers should extend east as well to most places at times.

Later winds tend to to go more northerly and then a possible easterly in most of the output and this would mean the east and northeast are more vulnerable to potential snow and disruption.

The GFS and UKMO have now sided with this scenario although it could still change. I am comfortable though with this forecast as I think it represents the most likely outcome right now.

It's something to be aware of and to keep up to date with for cold, wind and potential snowfall. More details from me later today including charts and synopsis etc.

*Just to note the other thread regarding snow risk for Thursday (today) in the north west of the country.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057386993

jacksie66

This post has been deleted.

Kermit.de.frog

jacksie66 wrote: »

Bollox. I land in Dublin on Saturday morning. It's over 25c here most days in Christchurch. I'm gonna freeze..

Saturday morning will be grand. 5 or 6c. Not too bad. If you arrived on Sunday or Monday you would get more sympathy:P

JanuarySnowstor

Sunday night getting more and more interesting

Kermit.de.frog

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Sunday night getting more and more interesting

GFS has backed a way a little bit from the bigger frontal snow event it was progging in the last few runs but a lot of shower activity on the latest for Sunday night.

JanuarySnowstor

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

GFS has backed a way a little bit from the bigger frontal snow event it was progging in the last few runs but a lot of shower activity on the latest for Sunday night.

Yes as always time will tell

Still good potential and showery is probably a safer bet than frontal with possible mild sectors

Kermit.de.frog

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Yes as always time will tell

Still good potential and showery is probably a safer bet than frontal with possible mild sectors

No problem atm. Sunday night is when the action get going in terms of showers turning to snow. Monday and Tuesday looking very cold

JanuarySnowstor

Must be record cold from a westerly

Thanks to severe cold pumping down through the east US last few weeks I guess

For those who think this winter was bad think again.
Late February and yet to see a daffodil down here

redsteveireland

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Must be record cold from a westerly

Thanks to severe cold pumping down through the east US last few weeks I guess

For those who think this winter was bad think again.
Late February and yet to see a daffodil down here

Strange, our daffodils are almost flowering and the place is covered in snowdrops for the last week. The grass has had a sudden growth spurt too.

Baggy Trousers

redsteveireland wrote: »

Strange, our daffodils are almost flowering and the place is covered in snowdrops for the last week. The grass has had a sudden growth spurt too.

Tell me about it, watching that grass grow again breaks my heart!

Gonzo

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Must be record cold from a westerly

Late February and yet to see a daffodil down here

While many of us have seen very little snow, this winter has to be the coldest since 2010. We've had loads of frost, horrible wind chill factors and generally temps in the low single digits since the start of January. Im really looking forward to milder conditions hopefully once we get the next week out of the way.

Baggy Trousers

In terms of hill walking, Wednesday/Thursday looks like a good day to go in Connemara, correct?

RobertKK

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

Tell me about it, watching that grass grow again breaks my heart!

Not for farmers...

Baggy Trousers

RobertKK wrote: »

Not for farmers...

I know I know...but it's Feb!
I need a new lawnmower....

Kermit.de.frog

The trough lines are queuing up for early next week offering enhanced shower activity and it looks like on Monday and Tuesday a lot of places will do well for snow particularly at night and some heavy falls during daylight too with a little bit of inland convection at this time of year.






I think snow will settle during night time hours.

Rikand

What kind of temperatures on a surface level we be looking at with this for the weekend ?

highdef

I think for the eastern half of the country, the best chances of lying snow would probably be due to a combination of a trough line of enhanced convection transferring across the eastern half of the country and the time being around about nightfall. As Kermit mentioned, there is enough radiation in the sun at this stage in the year for a bit of solar heating to aid any convection. That being said, that same solar heating has the negative of heating the land somewhat which makes sticking snow increasingly difficult but if a band of showers or a large clump of showers were to reach the east coast around nightfall (after being aided by solar heating previously), then there might be a chance of something half decent in the east.

But in any case, I doubt any lying snow on any morning will last beyond noon on any given day at sea level, going by current forecast.

JanuarySnowstor

Yes snow will certainly lie at night on both Monday and Tuesday.
Most likely melt by day but all and all looking good.

I've had 3 days of lying snow here already this winter so it hasn't been bad.....In fact it's been very good

Strangegravy

Gonzo wrote: »

While many of us have seen very little snow, this winter has to be the coldest since 2010. We've had loads of frost, horrible wind chill factors and generally temps in the low single digits since the start of January. Im really looking forward to milder conditions hopefully once we get the next week out of the way.

Funny, down here in Limerick (IMBY) it's been one of the snowiest winters in the last 10 years at least. Had more snow this year than 2010, which was just very cold here and not much snow.

That's not to say it was constant whiteouts, but compared to what we normally get, we've have a good winter for a snowbie. Early next week looks good again atm!

Duiske

Looking particularly interesting for the North-West, especially on Tuesday with low temps, frequent heavy snow showers and very windy.

Kermit.de.frog

Only indicative but Euro 4 hinting at an early start on Sunday morning for precipitation beginning to snow.

SEPT 23 1989

East coast gets very little again

Kermit.de.frog

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

East coast gets very little again

I disagree but wait and see:cool:

United road

Hope you are right Kermit.
Looking at ME forecast they suggest some showers at times making it east, but nothing really stands out over the next few days for the east according to them.

Baggy Trousers

I am surprised there's isn't more excitement about the snow for Monday/Tuesday. Sounds like high ground will get a good snowfall and lower levels could get some blizzard like conditions. Who doesn't like a blizzard!?

Gonzo

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

I am surprised there's isn't more excitement about the snow for Monday/Tuesday. Sounds like high ground will get a good snowfall and lower levels could get some blizzard like conditions. Who doesn't like a blizzard!?

that's because most people here live in Leinster and the risk of seeing decent snow is quite slim! A few light showers may break through some overnight dustings. Many parts of the east and Dublin may not see a single flake.

Rock Lesnar

Gonzo wrote: »

that's because most people here live in Leinster and the risk of seeing decent snow is quite slim! A few light showers may break through some overnight dustings. Many parts of the east and Dublin may not see a single flake.

Plus anything that falls will probably be very short lived during daylight hours i would imagine, so for me, its a waste of time

StewartGriffin

Gonzo wrote: »

that's because most people here live in Leinster and the risk of seeing decent snow is quite slim! A few light showers may break through some overnight dustings. Many parts of the east and Dublin may not see a single flake.

True. Also MT has forecast it only for high ground, and Met eireann haven't flagged it at all yet. I think people have learned not to get too excited about some of the threads predicting snow here.

milli milli

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

I am surprised there's isn't more excitement about the snow for Monday/Tuesday. Sounds like high ground will get a good snowfall and lower levels could get some blizzard like conditions. Who doesn't like a blizzard!?

I'm excited and I live in the west!
Really hoping this comes true.
I had one glorious snowday back in January. Took a day off and spent about 6 hours walking in the snow. Ended up with a bad cold from it but it was worth it!
I felt like I was in an Alpine wonderland.
I would love another day like that!

Believe!!!

JanuarySnowstor

The situation on Monday Tuesday looks ripe to me for heavy snow showers esp further West.

For my location in Cork we did very well recently under a polar westerly and thickness and uppers are even better this time.

Yes snow will melt by day but both Monday and Tuesday mornings look whiteout to me

pauldry

Therel be snow in the west monday night as every snow morning in sligo this wintr has been a tuesday bar a friday and a sunday

Strangegravy

You'd take that right now! But unfortunately these snow maps can be very hit and miss. Still, would love to go for an early morning drive again!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEGFtUfivjY

Kermit.de.frog

StewartGriffin wrote: »

True. Also MT has forecast it only for high ground, and Met eireann haven't flagged it at all yet. I think people have learned not to get too excited about some of the threads predicting snow here.

With all due respect this is not MT's forecast or ME's forecast, it is my forecast. If you don't like it or have an issue don't read the thread or any thread started by me. You have that choice.

I will give an update later today on this thread as to the scenario for tonight, Monday, Monday night and Tuesday. Suffice to say some warnings are coming for certain areas.

JanuarySnowstor

Well met eireann have been dragged kicking and screaming towards this cold spell with a refusal to up the ante until this morning. Expect a warning imminent.

For Corkonians expect heavy snow showers from early tonight leaving a widespread deposit of several cm by morning. Hilly locations will be dangerous. Tomorrow showers will continue throughout with only short dry sunny spells. By tomorrow night several inches will lie on hills.

This is the most potent cold spell all Winter and whilst it's March now it will deliver for favoured locations

kingshankly

Christ that was a wild night here in South armargh so much for in like a lamb

redsteveireland

Wet snow mixed with rain here in East Galway. Bodes well for what lies ahead if it is going to get colder!

Strangegravy

A sleet/rain mix falling here in Limerick, interesting that it's turning wintery this early, looking good for some snow showers this evening and overnight if this is the case...

jimmyjim11

heavy sleet shower a while ago stuck on car and grass west limerick high ground

Pangea

In fariness last thursday Met eireann had snow in their forecast for sunday/monday/ tuesday. Yesterday they toned it down but defintely on the cards again according to their latest forecast, M.T.s forecast is not bad reading either.
Kermit called for Cold from NW for a few weeks now, so kudos to him.

hoody

Snowing fairly heavily here in Loughrea, starting to stick too. No run this morning!

average_runner

hoody wrote: »

Snowing fairly heavily here in Loughrea, starting to stick too. No run this morning!

Its actually nice to run in it, something different

Pete2k

Heavy wet snow in west Roscommon sticking to cars and grass...

TheBody

Half snow/rain here in Mullingar.

km79

hoody wrote: »

Snowing fairly heavily here in Loughrea, starting to stick too. No run this morning!

thats mad I'm only 10 k or so from loughrea and it's raining

zidewayz

Wet snow Rathcoole Co Dublin.

redsteveireland

km79 wrote: »

thats mad I'm only 10 k or so from loughrea and it's raining

Loughrea always does well in snow events, annoyingly :-)
Snowing here again.
Proper full-on snow sticking to cars etc.

jArgHA

We had heavy rain / sleety stuff here in Cork city this morning from about 9am for just under an hour, hopeful for some snow tonight...

I noticed this interesting horse-shoe type pattern on the rainfall radar at the moment:

km79

redsteveireland wrote: »

Loughrea always does well in snow events, annoyingly :-)
Snowing here again.

and it has begun!

SEPT 23 1989

Sleet with ever increasing flakes of snow mixed in

Newcastle Dublin

Pipitypippip

Sleet in longford turning to snow now

Baggy Trousers

Serious snow in west Galway (near Oughterard) now! Biggest flakes I have seen in years!
So exciting!!!

It is sticking despite the wet ground.