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25-01-2015, 18:48   #1
Kermit.de.frog
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COLD SPELL Jan 28th Onwards: Wintry Showers/Frosty, Some Snow Accumulations

I guess we can open an event thread now we have cross model agreement for Wednesday and Thursday.

I think it's best to take this a step at a time in relation to the upcoming cold snap because the situation is very fluid, marginal and dynamic from Thursday evening. For Wednesday and Thursday the guidance is rock solid though.

Wednesday, Wednesday night, Thursday

Main points:

  • Rapid temperature drop through Wednesday morning countrywide
  • Temps 3 - 12c at first, falling to 0 - 3c through the afternoon
  • Showers turning to snow before sunrise in the far west to low levels with accumulations before the afternoon away from immediate wind ward coasts
  • Showers intensify through the day turning to snow in most places by late afternoon
  • Snow showers widespread Wednesday night but especially Connaught, Ulster, North Leinster and West Munster
  • Significant and potentially disruptive accumulations in the western half of the country overnight
  • Strong northwesterly wind with gusts touching gale occasionally in exposed locations
  • Some frost overnight in the east and south, limited elsewhere due to brisk wind
  • Overnight temps circa -2 - +1c
  • May turn slightly milder through Thursday afternoon with snow showers turning back to rain or sleet at low levels and a temporary day time thaw may set in where snow has settled
  • Colder than average conditions to continue for forseeable with occasional marginal snow risk at times




Don't forget to keep up to date with MT's forecasts.

******UPDATE *************

Friday 30th January - Thursday 5th February

Overview

Hi all, an update to the OP.

The cold conditions are set to remain until at least Thursday and even this time frame could yet be extended. Winds will vary north to northwesterly and will be strong for a time tomorrow though may go southeasterly temporarily on Monday. After Tuesday winds go more northeasterly.

Temperatures

Daytime temperatures will remain low throughout generally in low single figures between 0 and 4c but night time temperatures will really tumble.

Tonight temperatures will fall to around -2 c in many areas and this brings with it frost and ice for untreated roads. Tomorrow night temperatures will fall further to around -2 or 3 c widely (slightly milder near wind ward coasts). Sunday night will see temperatures as low as -5 or -6 c particularly in the northern half of the country where snow is lying. Again frost and ice will be an additional hazard to any lying snow. Monday night again temperatures sub zero and down to -2 or -3 c generally but under cloudier skies. Again slightly milder on Atlantic coasts. Night time temperatures on current trends will plunge even further midweek and could get as low as -6 or -7 c locally.

Precipitation - Rainfall/snowfall

From tonight most of the expected precipitation will be snow. Over the weekend snow showers will mostly affect Ulster, west Connaught and west Munster settling in places particularly across Ulster. Occasionally some may get lost and end up in north Leinster or the midlands at times so don't be surprised with a random dusting one morning.

This applies to tonight, tomorrow and Sunday.

2 potential snow "events" to watch

On Monday a warm front will attempt to move in off the Atlantic but will stall somewhere near the southwest. This will be coming in to contact with very cold air over the country and the rain will turn to snow away from far southwest coastal areas. There is potential for some heavy snowfall from this that may well be disruptive.

Currently this looks to affect most of Munster and south Connaught. Another affect could be to drag in some light snowfall to eastern counties off the Irish sea.

People in these areas should keep up to date because the exact position of this is a little uncertain still and it may yet affact more than the areas mentioned but the current concensus is it is the southwest that takes the hit here.

MONDAY NIGHT

There is less certainty about Monday night. Currently it looks like an active but shallow trough or small area of developing low pressure will move down from the north. At this stage upper air temperatures and ground temperatures will be very low and it's about as close as we can get to a sure thing for snow in Ireland - on current trends. There is potential for heavy and in places significant snowfall and some disruption.

Again keep up to date with this because it could affect your journey on Tuesday morning.

The orange fonts are the two features that really need to be taken in to account in the coming days. There potentially will be severe weather at times but mostly it should be nice be to look at.

Last edited by Lumi; 31-01-2015 at 20:02.
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25-01-2015, 19:38   #2
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You always need graphs DM, always need graphs. Bullet points are nice. But the lack flare

Hopefully wind speed can help lessen the sea modification and prkvide more for people at sea level









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25-01-2015, 19:38   #3
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Im in, hope your right!
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25-01-2015, 19:44   #4
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I suppose the south east gets nothing again in terms of lying snow!
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25-01-2015, 19:47   #5
Kermit.de.frog
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You always need graphs DM, always need graphs. Bullet points are nice. But the lack flare




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25-01-2015, 19:48   #6
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I suppose the south east gets nothing again in terms of lying snow!
The Southeast never dose well from a NorthWesterly. But you never know if the winds are strong enough you will see a few showers but probably marginal . Hopefully we might get an Easterly or North Easterly in mid February.
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25-01-2015, 19:51   #7
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With instability comes embedded trough lines that can really beef up activity at times. I'd say most are going to see snow over the 48 hour period even the far southeast.
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25-01-2015, 20:02   #8
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Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog View Post
With instability comes embedded trough lines that can really beef up activity at times. I'd say most are going to see snow over the 48 hour period even the far southeast.

The previous north Westerly brought showers as far as the Comeragh mountains and then they had disintegrated by the time they hit the south east.
They ended up as cloudy days with no precipitation.
So ye hopefully well have big beefy showers this time.
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25-01-2015, 20:06   #9
 
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GFS sounding for around north Kildare at 18Z on Wednesday. Plenty of snow in that. Massive saturated cold layer forming oodles of snow crystals. Plenty of graupel and proper snow flakes. Warm and dry sub 3 degree surface layer of only around 150 m deep should mean that these flakes should survive to all levels.

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25-01-2015, 20:10   #10
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The previous north Westerly brought showers as far as the Comeragh mountains and then they had disintegrated by the time they hit the south east.
They ended up as cloudy days with no precipitation.
So ye hopefully well have big beefy showers this time.
Looks good for now.

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25-01-2015, 20:11   #11
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Interesting period of weather coming up- Will feel very cold from midweek in all parts. Snow showers should be quite widespread at times - possibly mixing with sleet/hail/rain later in the week away from the north before another surge of cold air moves south but thats too far away to look at in detail.

I'd expect accumulations to be mainly over higher ground away from the north and west but possible in all areas overnight or if the showers are beefy enough.

All in all looking very good for cold weather starting this week compared to what the models were showing just a few days ago. The East may even get in on the action properly for the first time this winter if we can get a north-easterly tilt to the wind later on.
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25-01-2015, 20:15   #12
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Wow, that year went quick!

I bailed out of the last snow thread wishing everyone the best, as the chance of snow had passed

I'm back again for my fix
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25-01-2015, 20:16   #13
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Looks good for now.

Sure does ,and loads to follow from the Atlantic.

Be great if it happens.
Kids will be delighted.
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25-01-2015, 20:28   #14
jack o shea
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it wont snow so no need for this thread unless you live on a mountain.

MOD NOTE

Having just had the pleasure of going through all of your postings on this weather forum , all posts bar one have been one liners looking for a reaction , Im happy enough to say goodbye to you and your trolling ways, thanks for the memories , it's been emotional !

Last edited by pistolpetes11; 25-01-2015 at 20:47. Reason: MOD NOTE
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25-01-2015, 20:29   #15
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Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog View Post
I guess we can open an event thread now we have cross model agreement for Wednesday and Thursday.

I think it's best to take this a step at a time in relation to the upcoming cold snap because the situation is very fluid, marginal and dynamic from Thursday evening. For Wednesday and Thursday the guidance is rock solid though.

Wednesday, Wednesday night, Thursday

Main points:

  • Rapid temperature drop through Wednesday morning countrywide
  • Temps 3 - 12c at first, falling to 0 - 3c through the afternoon
  • Showers turning to snow before sunrise in the far west to low levels with accumulations before the afternoon away from immediate wind ward coasts
  • Showers intensify through the day turning to snow in most places by late afternoon
  • Snow showers widespread Wednesday night but especially Connaught, Ulster, North Leinster and West Munster
  • Significant and potentially disruptive accumulations in the western half of the country overnight
  • Strong northwesterly wind with gusts touching gale occasionally in exposed locations
  • Some frost overnight in the east and south, limited elsewhere due to brisk wind
  • Overnight temps circa -2 - +1c
  • May turn slightly milder through Thursday afternoon with snow showers turning back to rain or sleet at low levels and a temporary day time thaw may set in where snow has settled
  • Colder than average conditions to continue for forseeable with occasional marginal snow risk at times


I wonder would the mods mind changing this thread as we go along. I think it worked well last time.
Quality post KDF, followed your last thread and found it most useful. Keep up the good work. Roll on the snow
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