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06-12-2014, 16:16   #1
Kermit.de.frog
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Potential for Snow Showers this Week, 8-12th Dec

Tonight, Sunday, Monday

Higher ground of the northwest -- some snow showers by the early hours of the morning with some accumulations locally. Sleet, hail to low levels.

Tuesday onward

Hi all, been a while

This has been developing gradually over the last few days and finally the first real blast of winter is nearly upon us. The first incursion is tonight but will be interrupted on Monday and Tuesday by slightly milder air.

From Tuesday evening, a long with brisk winds, a polar airmass will become established in the west and quickly spread countrywide overnight a long with heavy showers from the northwest. Initially these will be mostly rain and hail but through the night that quickly changes and they turn to sleet/snow countrywide by morning driven right across the country on a very strong or gale force wind. See this thread http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showt...p?t=2057338060

A long with the risk of snow - frost and ice will become harsher in the midlands and east. Frost not an issue on west coasts due to the strong onshore wind.

It's pretty much certain that this set up lasts from Tuesday evening until at least Friday night. Snow accumulations are still a bit early to speculate but in the northwest and north I think it is very likely to low levels particularly overnight.

One thing you will really notice is the wind chill which will be well below freezing throughout even though temperatures will be around 1 - 6c nationally.

Not pleasant to be out in but it may be very pleasant to look at



More later.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 07-12-2014 at 03:53.
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06-12-2014, 19:00   #2
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Am I correct in saying a lot of Ulster and parts of Leitrim and N Sligo could get dustings from tomorrow afternoon and evening
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06-12-2014, 19:43   #3
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THIS.. This is what we want to see in a few days - will likely change as in FI but could deliver widespread snow...

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06-12-2014, 21:09   #4
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Wahoo!, winter at all last, all aboard the fantasy island express choo chooooooooooooo!
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06-12-2014, 21:15   #5
 
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From Matt Hugo twitter-EC ENS reviewed and despite quite a lot of cold scenarios for next weekend 12z ECM and Control both cold outliers.
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06-12-2014, 23:56   #6
sigmadp2
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My feeling is.... that of the Met office

Westerly ZONAL.

I would love snow..... no sign of any general snow... from the north or east... yet.


Cold but not bitter cold for the coming week.
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07-12-2014, 10:42   #7
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Met eireann have a snow and ice warning issued for the northwest
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07-12-2014, 12:20   #8
Kermit.de.frog
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It's still up in the air (pardon the pun) beyond Saturday.

I'd watch for the orientation of the jet stream which will be key to prolonging the cold weather. We have already seen some minor changes in favour over night but we need to see more.

Of a bit more interest is the smaller (but increasing) risk of something a bit bigger in terms of snow fall occurring on Thursday. Two models picking up a developing embedded shortwaves that could bring heavier showers or a longer period of sleet and snow. Equally that could deepen quite rapidly in to a wind event rather than a potential snow event.

But that is + 100 hrs a way still.

Something to keep an eye on for Thursday and Friday.

All systems go from Tuesday night


Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 07-12-2014 at 13:43.
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07-12-2014, 13:01   #9
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Met Eireann also forecasting snow in the west and north next friday.
I have my fingers crossed, but I wouldn't count on it here in Clare.
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07-12-2014, 14:51   #10
Gonzo
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just saw the farming forecast there and does not signal much other than some wintry or rain/hail/sleet showers in parts of the north and west later in the week. Temps generally 5-9C throughout the week, we need something much colder and easterly for proper snow! Having said that it's much better than anything we had last winter.
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07-12-2014, 14:54   #11
JCX BXC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
just saw the farming forecast there and does not signal much other than some wintry or rain/hail/sleet showers in parts of the north and west later in the week. Temps generally 5-9C throughout the week, we need something much colder and easterly for proper snow! Having said that it's much better than anything we had last winter.
Tuesday its mostly 10-11c!
Come next Friday though its 2-5c, which leads for some evening snow
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07-12-2014, 14:56   #12
Kermit.de.frog
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From Tuesday temperatures will range between 1 and 5 c generally on current projections.

Don't know where the 5 - 9 c is coming from.
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07-12-2014, 15:00   #13
Sleety_Rain
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog View Post
From Tuesday temperatures will range between 1 and 5 c generally on current projections.

Don't know where the 5 - 9 c is coming from.
Every day this week barring Friday has forecast maxima somewhere in Ireland to 9C and on Friday the max is 7C on current projections!
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07-12-2014, 15:06   #14
JCX BXC
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Every day this week barring Friday has forecast maxima somewhere in Ireland to 9C and on Friday the max is 7C on current projections!
Friday maximum temperatures of 2-5c according to met eireann. Where are you getting 7?
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07-12-2014, 15:32   #15
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Originally Posted by Carnacalla View Post
Friday maximum temperatures of 2-5c according to met eireann. Where are you getting 7?
even if 2-5C works out next Friday, thats still not really cold enough for snow.

We need temps under 2C to begin getting excited for snow! Ive even seen it pour rain here before at 0.5C. Going on the current forecast, some high ground parts of the west and north could see some overnight mountain snow later in the week, some low ground could see some flakes mixed in with the showers but I highly doubt any of us are going to be building snowmen next week unless there is a serious upgrade on the way.
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