Potential for Snow Showers this Week, 8-12th Dec

omicron

Potentially cold day for some on Friday!

Iancar29

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We are relying on the occlusion moving south somewhat.

WRF now in range and has the front further south too.The ppn going from Galway to Dublin


2 m temps hovering around freezing .



Ok , I can now say im a bit more excited now looking at these charts

leahyl

What's that touching the South coast Iancar?!!

SeaBreezes

I have this sinking feeling thats our snow shield :-( .. please someone tell me Im wrong..

highdef

Frustratingly, the GFS parallel charts (the new better and shiny charts) don't seem to agree so much about the extent of snowfall and the temperatures. It only shows lying snow in more or less the Ulster area whilst the regular GFS charts are showing upwards of 2" of snow across a large swathe of the midlands.
This is getting close to being knife edge stuff

Kermit.de.frog

Knife edge alright. Could miss the far north completely

highdef

Is it me or is this turning into the first battle ground frontal rain/snow event in quite a long time? I think at this point, it will either be a midland or northern event. I can't see eastern coastal or southern areas (sorry Cork and Dublin) being affected to any degree with disruptive lying snow.
The latest charts are showing upwards of 4" of lying snow on Thursday night in some midland areas. This could well end that some people will wake up to several inches of snow whilst friends/relatives an hours drive away (or less) are wondering what the fuss is all about as they are in the warm sector further south/east.
I think it will be after the 06 GFS rolls out tomorrow morning before we can get more confident as to what will be the most likely outcome.

Supercell

Wicklow mountains should get a nice pasting, will be heading up there to make my first snowman of the season with the kiddies, last year didn't get to do that at all.

omicron

highdef wrote: »

Is it me or is this turning into the first battle ground frontal rain/snow event in quite a long time? I think at this point, it will either be a midland or northern event. I can't see eastern coastal or southern areas (sorry Cork and Dublin) being affected to any degree with disruptive lying snow.
The latest charts are showing upwards of 4" of lying snow on Thursday night in some midland areas. This could well end that some people will wake up to several inches of snow whilst friends/relatives an hours drive away (or less) are wondering what the fuss is all about as they are in the warm sector further south/east.
I think it will be after the 06 GFS rolls out tomorrow morning before we can get more confident as to what will be the most likely outcome.

I wouldn't rule eastern counties out yet, maybe not right on the coast but possible accumulations not far inland.

numilus cimbus

This is very marginal(the frontal event),but in its favour is a land crossing wind direction if you live away from the south/southwest
so certainly the midlands northward,Ulster,north conaught,that type of area depending on where the front traverses and how quickly it engages the cold air
I wouldn't rule out Dublin benefiting from that,especially higher ground or near higher ground
After that in showers anyone could see a sprinkling,even Cork city and some will see a lot
The fast moving flow involved is rare enough to be among the few episodes that doesn't suffer as much north atlantic modification as usual

highdef

Agreed. I would say we will have a big mish mash of people on here Friday morning, some rejoicing the inches of snow and others complaining that all they got was rain or the snow didn't stick.
With it currently being such a marginal forecast, I think Dublin city can almost certainly be ruled out with regards to disruption to snow. The UHI effect alone will probably be enough to cause any falling snow to melt on impact with the ground. Outlining higher areas of Dublin city (D16, 24, etc) may get something of interest but even that is not guaranteed.
I myself am about 40km west of Dublin, at just under 100m ASL and generally colder than surrounding areas by about 1c (slight microclimate) and even I am not more than about 50% confident that I will get disruptive levels of snow although all roads out of the village are uphill so it doesn't take much snow before traction is lost driving a standard 2WD car.

Frigga_92

Just had the very lightest of snow mixed with rain in Carrick-on-Suir

highdef

26sdrawkcab wrote: »

Just had the very lightest of snow mixed with rain in Carrick-on-Suir

Seems extremely unlikely as temperatures are way too high. Had it been an extremely heavy shower with some wet flakes mixed in due to the downdraft pulling down colder air from aloft, then I might just about believe it but as you say that it was very light, then I would be suspicious and would assume it was something else you saw, especially as Carrick-On-Suir in more or less at sea level and in the south of the country.

numilus cimbus

It was probably soft hail,often mistaken for sleet and common in heavy showers in a flow like this


In other news Clara ,the lovely German lady was on newstalk earlier saying met eireann will probably have to issue warnings for snow tomorrow into Friday
They are on board with the northern edge of the front falling as snow in places

Frigga_92

You're probably right so.
It wasn't me that "saw" it, it was one of the women I work with, she was probably mistaken.

Redsunset

Yes Depending on low track, backedge snow as colder air digs in but precip waning as it pulls away so could be very little but hey it's possible snow for some,bring it on.

icesnowfrost

Dew points are nice and low. Could be a few snow showers later.

Villain

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Dew points are nice and low. Could be a few snow showers later.

Hmm Dew Point is 4.2c here in Tullow

BLIZZARD7

Temp is 6.5c and 1c DP here...

icesnowfrost

Villain wrote: »

Hmm Dew Point is 4.2c here in Tullow

No snow for you so lol

Kermit.de.frog

There is a real threat of snowfall on the northern flank of this system and I suspect a big surprise for many on tomorrow night. Synoptically it's a classic snow situation for us.

For the east coast the LP does not develop enough rotation in it's center by tomorrow night so winds remain off shore (as has astutely already been mentioned). Big bonus. The 12z runs in around an hour should firm up more on the detail at this stage.

DOCARCH

5.8c with a DP of 2.3c here (in south Dublin).

icesnowfrost

Constantly changing. It's ment to be in real time.
Anyone no were I can pic up a cheap and cheerful weather station for the back garden

Rock Lesnar

How does us good folk in north meath fair for some of this, we seem to do ok for any snow that appears up north

Kermit.de.frog

Same again on the 12z GFS with rain turning to snow from the north before clearing on Friday morning.

1 am Friday precipitation



To 1 am temperatures



To 4 am preciption



Temperatures



Dew points

Rebelbrowser

The 12z GFS is still playing ball...

highdef

Very slight downgrade, in my eyes. Not much but very slight with a slight decrease in total precip. Still looking good for the middle bit of the country for a decent covering. Very interesting times again and by tomorrow evening, there'll be a lot of F5 button pressing going on!

grenouille1966

Looks quite good for eastern areas as well up to around the Dublin area...time will tell though

Tactical

highdef wrote: »

Very interesting times again and by tomorrow evening, there'll be a lot of F5 button pressing going on!

Don't forget about all the lamp post watching too

Mint Sauce

In laymans terms, are we going to get snow in Sligo Town during the next 48 hours.



Quite stormy here at the mo, pretty cold all day, lots of showers, with the occasional hail stone.