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01-08-2014, 10:26   #1
Kermit.de.frog
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Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms & flash flood risk - South, East - Aug 1-3

Folks, some intense pulses of rain are possible in the south this evening extending to Leinster over night. Anything up to 80mm between tonight and Sunday morning (edit). Smaller chance it could miss us in to the Irish sea but Met Eireann have already issued a warning and some of the higher resolution models indicate the possibility of significant amounts of rain in torrential pulses. Some embedded thunderstorms are also likely.

On Saturday morning/early afternoon the risk extends northwards and covers Ulster and North Connaught.

More anon.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 01-08-2014 at 10:42.
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01-08-2014, 10:30   #2
leahyl
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Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog View Post
Folks, some intense pulses of rain are possible in the south this evening extending to Leinster over night. Anything up to 80mm is possible. Smaller chance it could miss us in to the Irish sea but Met Eireann have already issued a warning and some of the higher resolution models indicate the possibility of significant amounts of rain in torrential pulses. Some embedded thunderstorms are also likely.

More anon.
Are you serious??
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01-08-2014, 10:38   #3
Kermit.de.frog
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Are you serious??
Sorry I meant 8 mm


Nah over an extended period of time. I wouldn't expect that tonight but by tomorrow afternoon/evening some areas could get there. ME going for 40 - 70 mm. Depends on the rain rate in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Something to watch.

Personally I wouldn't see it as an "orange" warning but that's what Met Eireann have put out. Lets run with it.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 01-08-2014 at 11:16.
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01-08-2014, 11:37   #4
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It's hitting SE and then swirling in the area before heading north, so it may not be exceptionally heavy but it looks to be consistent.
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01-08-2014, 12:54   #5
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Yeah I think the slow moving nature of this will be the key aspect. On the other hand the ground must be well drained at the moment so perhaps surface flooding in natural basins and blocked shores will be the worst of it.
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01-08-2014, 13:37   #6
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Land is very dry in the south east, where I live it was back around the 18th of July we got any real rain when less than 5mm fell and before that it was the 7th July when about 4mm fell.

Last night we had another 4mm..
Ground can take a lot of rain but ground is hard still so run off could be a problem.
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01-08-2014, 14:50   #7
 
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I don't know how we have this heavy rain in the West because according to Met E this morning we were in for a fine day with the odd shower which is still on their website, this has moved North East instead of East in my books, no expert here anyone comment
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01-08-2014, 15:22   #8
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Hmmm I see they have now changed their forecast to heavy rain in the West etc. wonder why
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01-08-2014, 16:34   #9
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Hmmm I see they have now changed their forecast to heavy rain in the West etc. wonder why
Mets update from 10 minutes ago states otherwise
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01-08-2014, 17:06   #10
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Carlow coco just sent a text out to check Met Eireann's warning.
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01-08-2014, 17:18   #11
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Power just cut here. Not stormy or evening looking like its going to be. Wonder if its related.
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01-08-2014, 17:33   #12
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Power just cut here. Not stormy or evening looking like its going to be. Wonder if its related.
Where is "here"?
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01-08-2014, 18:20   #13
Red Nissan
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Nice little shower now.
21mm/hr rate and 2.4mm in just a few minutes, so it was nice, but brief.

Last edited by Red Nissan; 01-08-2014 at 20:24.
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01-08-2014, 19:11   #14
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Some heavy rain here for the past 30 minutes
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01-08-2014, 19:24   #15
 
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Hmmmmm...latest bbc news 24 forecast graphics has most of the rain out in the Irish sea..
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