Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms & flash flood risk - South, East - Aug 1-3

pad199207

Raining cats and dogs here in Naas

Rock Lesnar

Will the rain down south now push north this evening

weisses

Lovely sunny day here around Dingle .... Strange to know it's bucketing down just to the east

_Kaiser_

Have to drive from South Dublin to Cavan in a few hours.. anything to worry about?

Rock Lesnar

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Have to drive from South Dublin to Cavan in a few hours.. anything to worry about?

Just the Cavan people

M.T. Cranium

The areas that have dried out past 2-3 hours just to northwest of Dublin are close to the upper-level low which is drifting northeast and will be over county Down by about midnight, taking this drier zone along in that direction. At the same time, the occlusion running into the secondary surface centre under the upper low (the primary is over the north Irish Sea) will plod north and resume at least moderate rainfall for areas that it covers from Dublin north. On the east coast you can expect to see winds going from east to south, then southwest and west but inland the sequence will be from east to north and northwest then westerly.

The intense looking return flow from west across portions of Laois, Carlow, south Kildare will be dragged northwards and upslope against the Wicklow-Dublin Mountains could create locally heavier rains around the western portions of Dublin but then later this feature will be returning to the east coast without running into that upslope. There may be a slight rainshadow effect east of the hills that will fade out from Bray northwards later. So would expect a further 20-40 mm rain in most of Leinster as the dry centre of the system moves more into east Ulster. This wrap around could then become thundery with some hail embedded. Be alert for thunderstorm development about 4-7 p.m. in the Dublin region then this will slowly shift north during the evening.

The section of the storm now over west Ulster will be held in place for the rest of the day and through most of tonight, and I suspect it may be under-modelled so expect some locally torrential downpours in parts of Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon and eastern Mayo-Galway with 20-40 mm further rainfall there, also in Derry, Tyrone and Fermanagh.

This storm will likely continue for a significant portion of Sunday in most of Ulster and the parts of Leinster and Connacht within about forty miles of Ulster, and the current sharp boundaries may degrade as areas of showers begin to rotate around the more persistent rain bands.

Twas Not

Lashing again in SoCo Dublin

Oscar Bravo

Just about holding dry in Castlebar west is definitely best though as I can see croagh Patrick clearly and blue sky out towards clear island. As always MT spot on!!

Video

Temp dropped back from 16 to 13 after one of the heavy showers here

DOCARCH

Twas Not wrote: »

Lashing again in SoCo Dublin

Must be in a bit of a rain shadow here, as it's only spitting here in Dublin 16 for the last while.

thomasj

Its coming down very heavy in dublin 15 now has been for the last 15 minutes or so

Calibos

Theres a phrase. The squeeky wheel gets the oil.

If you are a broken record like Whitebriar and I and mention your home towns enough, it gets noticed and MT starts name-checking your town and giving you a more specific forecast for your locality

pad199207

Very Heavy Rain here in Naas now. Gusty winds too

PukkaStukka

Moderate rain here near Swords NoCo Dublin

pad199207

Horrific rain here now in Naas. Coming down in sheets!

lolo62

Is there some hope for tomorrow eve(Sunday)? I have a fridge full of bbq meats and the family coming.
I'm in inchicore...

OneEightSeven

lolo62 wrote: »

Is there some hope for tomorrow eve(Sunday)? I have a fridge full of bbq meats and the family coming.
I'm in inchicore...

You're in luck, there's a localized heatwave forecasted for Inchicore.

lolo62

OneEightSeven wrote: »

You're in luck, there's a localized heatwave forecasted for Inchicore.

Not looking for a heatwave..just a break in the rain for a few hours. Can't make sense of conflicting forecasts online and thought, with this being the weather forum,I might get some helpful advice. Maybe I thought wrong but thanks for your input anyway

Video

lolo62 wrote: »

Not looking for a heatwave..just a break in the rain for a few hours. Can't make sense of conflicting forecasts online and thought, with this being the weather forum,I might get some helpful advice. Maybe I thought wrong but thanks for your input anyway

You'll probably get away with it, it looks like just showers tomorow which shouldnt take too long to clear best to do it after 4pm, better chance of a clearance on monday though

maquiladora

lolo62 wrote: »

Is there some hope for tomorrow eve(Sunday)? I have a fridge full of bbq meats and the family coming.
I'm in inchicore...

Should be mostly dry Sunday afternoon and evening.

uck51js9zml2yt

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The areas that have dried out past 2-3 hours just to northwest of Dublin are close to the upper-level low which is drifting northeast and will be over county Down by about midnight, taking this drier zone along in that direction. At the same time, the occlusion running into the secondary surface centre under the upper low (the primary is over the north Irish Sea) will plod north and resume at least moderate rainfall for areas that it covers from Dublin north. On the east coast you can expect to see winds going from east to south, then southwest and west but inland the sequence will be from east to north and northwest then westerly.

The intense looking return flow from west across portions of Laois, Carlow, south Kildare will be dragged northwards and upslope against the Wicklow-Dublin Mountains could create locally heavier rains around the western portions of Dublin but then later this feature will be returning to the east coast without running into that upslope. There may be a slight rainshadow effect east of the hills that will fade out from Bray northwards later. So would expect a further 20-40 mm rain in most of Leinster as the dry centre of the system moves more into east Ulster. This wrap around could then become thundery with some hail embedded. Be alert for thunderstorm development about 4-7 p.m. in the Dublin region then this will slowly shift north during the evening.

The section of the storm now over west Ulster will be held in place for the rest of the day and through most of tonight, and I suspect it may be under-modelled so expect some locally torrential downpours in parts of Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon and eastern Mayo-Galway with 20-40 mm further rainfall there, also in Derry, Tyrone and Fermanagh.

This storm will likely continue for a significant portion of Sunday in most of Ulster and the parts of Leinster and Connacht within about forty miles of Ulster, and the current sharp boundaries may degrade as areas of showers begin to rotate around the more persistent rain bands.

What did he just say?
Do I need to build an ark in Dublin or can I paint outside tomorrow. I got lost after the mention of Upper levels

W1ll1s

lolo62 wrote: »

Can't make sense of conflicting forecasts online

Aint that the truth. Wonder how they all seem to manage to get their info from different ""supercomputers"" ô_ô

How Soon Is Now

Here in citywest awful day has been raining since bout 4am only stops every now and again.

All the forecasts I've checked say it's to calm down after 7.....

Hope so looking forward to pint!

lolo62

Thank you! I will stick with optimism so

pad199207

Pressure drop at the time of the torrential rain here earlier

moxin

Is it going to flood? RTE has the headline about Dublin http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0802/634750-weather/

A further 60mm?? I don't see that reported here in the forum? Its bucketing down on the northside now.

Met Éireann has issued a Status Orange weather warning for Leinster, Cavan and Monaghan.

It says heavy rain, 25-40mm, fell before 6am and a further 40-60mm is likely to fall by 6am tomorrow.

sunbeam

Lovely day in Achill all day, just starting to cloud up now.

DOCARCH

Heaviest rain now since early morning. 40.0mm so far for the day.

Simon Gruber Says

Been very heavy for about 45 mins in D5

JFKIRELAND

Lashing here in Dublin 5 again - 56.4mm since midnight.
Highest rain rate of 1.07mm/min or 64.07mm/hr @ 0412 - must be close to that again now....JK